sa 4 Discussing SA 4 Chapter 1: Herdaz

[Aon Tia]

I read this chapter and to summarize, it is mentioned that Herdaz was in a year long fighting with Odium's Army. Herdazian General "the Mink" was the leader behind it and he is blamed by Lirin for all the bloodshed in a lost cause of a battle. Lirin does not mention the radiants. he does not mention the coalition or unified human forces.

What I am confused about is the role of Knights Radiants, Dalinar and his coalition in this Herdazian War. Were they not involved? If they were, then Lirin would not consider it a lost cause, would he? And if they were not involved, why not? Was not Herdaz part of the coalition. What really happened in this one year gap?

I know we will probably get the answers in the next book, but i thought if anyone has any thoughts on this, please share. 

[earthexile]

I doubt anyone could stand against Odium's forces for a year without serious support from Radiants. Mundane Rosharan forces just don't have what it takes to go up against lightning attacks and thunderclasts. We can assume that either Herdaz has allied with Urithiru, or they've collected their own patriotic Radiants. We know they've been appearing all over the world.

[Aon Tia]

6 hours ago, earthexile said:

I doubt anyone could stand against Odium's forces for a year without serious support from Radiants. Mundane Rosharan forces just don't have what it takes to go up against lightning attacks and thunderclasts. We can assume that either Herdaz has allied with Urithiru, or they've collected their own patriotic Radiants. We know they've been appearing all over the world.

That is true but if he had urithiru help, then we start this book with a major lose for honor’s forces.

 It would also show that Lirin thinks that the human resistance against odium’s forces is unnecessary and they have no real hope of winning. Which is possible but I did not think that he had so fatalistic attitude. 
 
Mainly, I don’t see why a fight with radiants would be lost in just a year and if radiants were actively participating then why are there so many refugees coming towards Alethkar, why were they not whisked away by windrunners instead?

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by The traveller

[Fractalfire]

Even if Dalinar and co. were involved, aren't the initial losses inevitable?

The situation currently:

Odium has his magic users at nearly full power. The fused et al. are still the same experienced, powerful warriors they always were and are functionally immortal, in addition to being backed up by odium-spren, 7/9 unmade, the order of Skybreakers, Taravangian, and Odium himself.

As of book 3, Dalinar currently has less than a dozen full Radiants -- he doesn't even have representatives from all the orders yet, much less truly organized, well-trained orders -- and he has multiple theaters in which he must now campaign, of which Herdaz is only one. His coalition is still shaky and probably barely functional at the best of times. He does not even know the full capabilities of his own Radiants, much less the enemy's full capabilities and powers, whereas the enemy knows basically everything. He's in a losing position, fighting a war in which he has inferior Investiture-power, man-power, information, and organization compared to his foe. The only major advantages he has going for him are that Cultivation appears to have something up her sleeve, he has (somewhat) superior technology in the form of fabrials, and he controls a major fortification (that's currently broken, but whatever). 

Frankly, they should be losing now. Badly. 

It would take some incredible military genius to keep from being crushed, much less to turn the tide in their favor. 

[Toaster Retribution]

33 minutes ago, The traveller said:

so many refugees coming towards Alethkar, why were they not whisked away by windrunners instead?

Presumably because the refugees would die in droves if this was attempted.

The Fused (or Odium) doesnt appear that interested in randomly murdering unimportant humans. If KRs show up however, they will attack. And so, the refugees who walk away on their own are left alone, but the ones who Windrunners would attempt to save would be attacked along with the WRs, which, presumably, would lead to a lot of death. 
 

12 minutes ago, Fractalfire said:

The only major advantages he has going for him are that Cultivation appears to have something up her sleeve, he has (somewhat) superior technology in the form of fabrials, and he controls a major fortification (that's currently broken, but whatever). 

He also has chulls. Chulls are cool. 
 

[Aon Tia]

14 minutes ago, Fractalfire said:

The situation currently:

Odium has his magic users at nearly full power. The fused et al. are still the same experienced, powerful warriors they always were and are functionally immortal, in addition to being backed up by odium-spren, 7/9 unmade, the order of Skybreakers, Taravangian, and Odium himself.

As of book 3, Dalinar currently has less than a dozen full Radiants -- he doesn't even have representatives from all the orders yet, much less truly organized, well-trained orders -- and he has multiple theaters in which he must now campaign, of which Herdaz is only one. His coalition is still shaky and probably barely functional at the best of times. He does not even know the full capabilities of his own Radiants, much less the enemy's full capabilities and powers, whereas the enemy knows basically everything. He's in a losing position, fighting a war in which he has inferior Investiture-power, man-power, information, and organization compared to his foe. The only major advantages he has going for him are that Cultivation appears to have something up her sleeve, he has (somewhat) superior technology in the form of fabrials, and he controls a major fortification (that's currently broken, but whatever). 

Frankly, they should be losing now. Badly. 

It would take some incredible military genius to keep from being crushed, much less to turn the tide in their favor. 

I agree with this analysis. In fact I must say that I find the start of this book with a major lose for dalinar’s forces to be very interesting.

Frankly, after the great win at the end of OB, I had kind of forgotten how bad things were in reality for dalinar’s coalition. After all, odium had not come with his full might at all because he had hoped to convert dalinar and use Amaram’s forces and take the humans completely unaware. But you are right, things are really bad right now for our heroes. They have very difficult times ahead.

@Toaster Retribution a very good point. 

Edited November 28, 2019 by The traveller

[Fractalfire]

41 minutes ago, The traveller said:

 It would also show that Lirin thinks that the human resistance against odium’s forces is unnecessary and they have no real hope of winning. Which is possible but I did not think that he had so fatalistic attitude.
 

Well, now we know where Kaladin gets it from. 

Quote

 

Mainly, I don’t see why a fight with radiants would be lost in just a year and if radiants were actively participating then why are there so many refugees coming towards Alethkar, why were they not whisked away by windrunners instead?

 

I mean, I don't see why it couldn't be lost in a year, even if Radiants were involved. Right now, Odium's forces more voidbinders and, with the Skybreakers, more full Radiants than Dalinar has squires. 

I don't think there are enough windrunners in the world to perform an evacuation that large, but, even if there were, how do you know that's not what Kaladin is about to do in the next chapter? 

(Edit: Nevermind, toaster demonstrates why that's not such a great idea.)

Edited November 28, 2019 by Fractalfire

[Fractalfire]

5 minutes ago, Toaster Retribution said:

Presumably because the refugees would die in droves if this was attempted.

The Fused (or Odium) doesnt appear that interested in randomly murdering unimportant humans. If KRs show up however, they will attack. And so, the refugees who walk away on their own are left alone, but the ones who Windrunners would attempt to save would be attacked along with the WRs, which, presumably, would lead to a lot of death. 

Which makes me wonder, what is Odium's endgame here, precisely? Is he just going to put the Singers back in charge? That seems rather tame for a Shard of hatred. He can't force them all back to Shinovar -- there isn't enough room for a population that large. 

Will he just start executing them all once he gets enough rounded up in concentration camps? Killing off all the people she's "cultivated" sounds like an excellent way to rile Cultivation. 

 

Quote

He also has chulls. Chulls are cool. 

Shame on me. How could I ever forget the Crustacean Hulks of Unusually Lumpy Largeness?! Well, obviously Odium should just run back to Braize now. His doom was inevitable I tell you, inevitable! 

[Aon Tia]

9 minutes ago, Fractalfire said:

Well, now we know where Kaladin gets it from. 

True that. 
 

10 minutes ago, Fractalfire said:

Odium's forces more voidbinders and, with the Skybreakers, more full Radiants than Dalinar has squires

Yup. Last time Odium has underestimated the humans, and this time he is much less likely to repeat the same mistake.
I guess I had thought that since odium is not going to be directly involved as he is avoiding dalinar that would somehow mean humans getting a slightly easy time. But I agree with your reasoning, he has enough ammunition, that his non-direct involvement should not matter much. 

[Friendshipspren]

Well first things first. Dalinar and the coalition has greater priorities. 

Herdaz is a backwater with no advantage worth shedding blood over.

It has no oathgates. It's population is small . It's technologically backward and has no resources worth coveting.

On the other hand , the alliance has to deal with Irian forces bearing down on the Purelake , Parshendi forces in the makabaki region , Parshendi forces conquering triax and tu bayla and enforcing isolation and encirclement of Jah keved , whose protection as of now is perhaps the single greatest priority of the alliance.

They also have to be wary of raids on urithiru itself. Yes , that only happened cause taravangian allowed it but they don't know that 

They also have shalash captive and it might be plausible that she could simply summon back her honorblade and break free. 

Yes , we know that's very implausible but they don't.

Besides we actually don't know for sure. We know very little about shalash and the honorblades and how she will respond to captivity , grilling for information and her father's death. Not to mention her guilt over taln and her own problems from the intervals between the desolations.

Irian forces might bear down on Shinovar or makabakam as well. 

They have to careful of that too. 

The Shattered plains are quite open to assault too , esp if you can fly.

Then there's the Everstorms and it's capricious destructive nature. 

They have to take down Ishar.

Then thier might be future attacks on Thaylenah as well.

The Azish lost thier trust in the Alethi when Sadean forces turned cloaks.

Then there's the fact that they have to defend southern alethkar and try and wrest back the rest.

They have to deal with the entire order of SkyBreakers. 

Who knows what else taravangian is cooking up ?

Then there's szeth and Nightblood to deal with as well.

They have to reactivate urithiru as well.

There will be other problems too.

Some of the WindRunners might already be quitting after the revelations of the eila stele. 

Many humans might be drifting towards the Parshendi who are for the moment better rulers who offer greater security and Don't discriminate based on eye colour . ( Although this might only be true in the vorin Nations )

And all these problems have to be dealt with with a very limited no of men and with insufficient knowledge.

These are all far greater priorities than defending herdaz which offers very little in return.

I'm guessing the Parshendi are taking it down just cause they can instead of muddling into Jah keved and being bogged down for years . 

Herdaz also allows greater containment of Jah keved.

[Chiberty]

21 minutes ago, PrinceGenocide said:

It's technologically backward and has no resources worth coveting.

They've got chouta.

[Friendshipspren]

17 minutes ago, Ookla the Chicken said:

They've got chouta.

Ah but they didn't patent it or keep it secret. 

Besides who needs chouta when you have horrible tasting soulcast grain. Yum

[Knight of Iron]

Maybe the whole book Dalinar just  keeps losing all the time as Odium just keeps winning and winning. Then in the end Dalinar just flings Nightblood into battle and all evil is destroyed. An effective strategy but I don’t see it working long term.

Anyways, I really only joined in to ask where can I find this chapter?

[Fractalfire]

9 minutes ago, Knight of Iron said:

Maybe the whole book Dalinar just  keeps losing all the time as Odium just keeps winning and winning. Then in the end Dalinar just flings Nightblood into battle and all evil is destroyed. An effective strategy but I don’t see it working long term.

Anyways, I really only joined in to ask where can I find this chapter?

Brandon's newsletter contains what I believe is the fullest version (you can sign up on his website). 

Alternatively, the first two entries on this Arcanum page are fragments of the whole: https://wob.coppermind.net/adv_search/?query=lirin

[Karger]

11 hours ago, The traveller said:

I read this chapter and to summarize, it is mentioned that Herdaz was in a year long fighting with Odium's Army. Herdazian General "the Mink" was the leader behind it and he is blamed by Lirin for all the bloodshed in a lost cause of a battle. Lirin does not mention the radiants. he does not mention the coalition or unified human forces.

What I am confused about is the role of Knights Radiants, Dalinar and his coalition in this Herdazian War. Were they not involved? If they were, then Lirin would not consider it a lost cause, would he? And if they were not involved, why not? Was not Herdaz part of the coalition. What really happened in this one year gap?

I know we will probably get the answers in the next book, but i thought if anyone has any thoughts on this, please share. 

Alright here is my reading on things. 

1. Herdaz is portrayed as a poorer kingdom with an access of labor(this is why so many of their people end up in Alethkar).  When their is an access of intelligent, cheap labor you don't really need slave(parshendi) labor.  Also your intelligent laborers will likely resent parshendi laborers so it makes sense to higher them instead.  This means that Herdaz initially had a fairly low concentration of awakened parshmen.  This means that after the everstorm Herdaz did not suffer nearly as many of the effects of having parshmen become hostiles.

2. Herdaz is a flat kingdom.  This leads to several effects.  Highstorms are worse so buildings are likely sturdier.  This means that the everstorm did less damage to their infrastructure.  They also likely have designed their fields so that crops are more resistant to the winds so food shortages are less of a problem. 

3. When I see flat kingdom between two large hostile countries I think Poland.  Poland has a history(as does Herdaz) of being a battleground for hostile neighbors.  Taravangian notes it is a traditional place for Alethi conquests to begin.  This means that the citizens and military of Herdaz are used to being invaded by superior forces and to having to fight asymmetric wars. 

So Herdaz is an annoyingly tough nut for Odium's forces to crack.  However it is located in a place where it can not easily be given assistance.  It is surrounded by Odium's forces so while they consolidate their rule they just ignore it more or less.  They might send in shock troops from time to time but honestly the only logical move for Herdaz's government is probably to submit anyway.  So why bother invading?  Meanwhile Herdaz is not part of Dalinar's coalition as of the end of Oathbringer.  That and its geographic location means sending aid there really does not make much sense.  The only people you can actually send are your Windrunners of which you have about 5.  Sure you can add their squires but even then it is not enough to fight the hundreds of reincarnating flying fused.  Dalinar might have had to write off Herdaz as doomed.  He could have sent a windrunner or two to evac some important people but other then that what can he do?

[IcaroRibeiro]

Where did you read that mate ?

[Aon Tia]

4 hours ago, IcaroRibeiro said:

Where did you read that mate ?

SA4 ch1? Have you signed up for Brandon’s newsletter? You can do that on his website, if you have not. He has given the latest version in his newsletter which he sends in the email

[Aon Tia]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Prolific said:

Herdaz is an annoyingly tough nut for Odium's forces to crack.  However it is located in a place where it can not easily be given assistance.  It is surrounded by Odium's forces so while they consolidate their rule they just ignore it more or less.  They might send in shock troops from time to time but honestly the only logical move for Herdaz's government is probably to submit anyway.  So why bother invading?  Meanwhile Herdaz is not part of Dalinar's coalition as of the end of Oathbringer.  That and its geographic location means sending aid there really does not make much sense.  The only people you can actually send are your Windrunners of which you have about 5.  Sure you can add their squires but even then it is not enough to fight the hundreds of reincarnating flying fused.  Dalinar might have had to write off Herdaz as doomed.  He could have sent a windrunner or two to evac some important people but other then that what can he do?

That is very good analysis. I agree, this is what I believe is more close to what happened. I think that Herdaz was not given Direct aid by radiants. dalinar’s forces have to choose their battles very carefully seeing as they are already stretched to the limits. It is important to safeguard the places with oathgates, form strongholds around them to ensure mobility and availability of resources. Herdaz is a difficult place to defeat the fused army in, and once and if defeated, it is a literal nightmare to try and hold it. So, they probably provided what little aid they could spare but largely decided to give Herdaz up.

[Karger]

3 minutes ago, The traveller said:

Herdaz is a difficult place to defeat the fused army in, and once and if defeated, it is a literal nightmare to try and hold it. So, they probably provided what little aid they could spare but largely decided to give Herdaz up.

Yeah.  If it is anything like real world Poland Dalinar and his advisors probably just thought something like"Herdaz has been conquered by the flying fused.  Well it is the third time this week.  The fact that it is a different group of evil monsters this time is not really relevant.  We can conqueror it latter if we want to." 

Edited November 29, 2019 by Ookla the Prolific

[Aminar]

I imagine the Coalition probably didn't do much in Herdaz. They probably provided supplies and the like as best they could, but they were in shambles after OathBringer and Herdaz isn't strategically necessary. They discussed that somewhere in OathBringer. Herdaz would be the next probable target of Alethi aggression so it was too predictable a move. But it sounds like the Listeners kind of followed that logic. They took Alethkar and went for the next likely target. Funneling supplies to fuel the Herdazian rebels as a distraction is a tried and true military strategy. The US does it all the time. 

[Karger]

3 hours ago, Aminar said:

They probably provided supplies and the like as best they could

Sad thing is.  I doubt they even tried.  Giving supplies to Herdaz would have been a waste of effort especially considering the vast numbers of starving people in Theylenah, Azir and Natanatan. 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Ookla the Prolific

[Toaster Retribution]

7 hours ago, Ookla the Prolific said:

Sad thing is.  I doubt they even tried.  Giving supplies to Herdaz would have been a waste of effort especially considering the vast numbers of starving people in Theylenah, Azir and Natanatan. 

Not really true. Dont forget that food is easily produced through Soulcasting on Roshar. Dalinar has access to Soulcasters, and they also have Queen Jasnah who is a walking Soulcaster. So they could provide food quite easily.

[Diomedes]

On 28.11.2019 at 3:45 PM, Fractalfire said:

Which makes me wonder, what is Odium's endgame here, precisely? Is he just going to put the Singers back in charge? That seems rather tame for a Shard of hatred. He can't force them all back to Shinovar -- there isn't enough room for a population that large. 

Will he just start executing them all once he gets enough rounded up in concentration camps? Killing off all the people she's "cultivated" sounds like an excellent way to rile Cultivation

Odium is not exactly anti-Human. He uses them when they submit to them (Amaram, the Iriali, King T. etc.).  O. endgame is to rule all of Roshar and to kill anybody who resists of course. I had a theory once that Odium is going to turn on the Singers, but I`am not so sure anymore. 

Dalinar challenged Odium to a duell of champions at the end of OB. He framed it as Humans vs Odium. The only thing Odium needs to do is bring a majority of Humans over to his side and he has won by default without a duell to take place. 

Edited December 1, 2019 by Diomedes

[+Bliev]

I think Odium’s only endgame is freedom. Well, and killing cultivation I’m sure.

So destroying the heralds and the Oathpact, even if he has to raze Roshar to the ground to do it, is the plan. Now he knows he might have to make sure that honor is not able to be reassembled, so making sure that Kal and his wind runners can’t protect Dalinar is a key too.

[Karger]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Toasted said:

Not really true. Dont forget that food is easily produced through Soulcasting on Roshar. Dalinar has access to Soulcasters, and they also have Queen Jasnah who is a walking Soulcaster. So they could provide food quite easily.

Soulcasting requires gemstones.  The Alethi army only has a limited number of them and they have to feed their own armies, refugees from the rest of Alethkar, and possibly Theylenah as well. 

10 minutes ago, Diomedes said:

Odium is not exactly anti-Human. He uses them when they submit to them (Amaram, the Iriali, King T. etc.).  O. endgame is to rule all of Roshar and to kill anybody who resists of course. I had a theory once that Odium is going to turn on the Singers, but I`am not so sure anymore. 

Dalinar challenged Odium to a duell of champions at the end of OB. He framed it as Humans vs Odium. The only thing Odium needs to do is bring a majority of Humans over to his side and he has won by default without a duell to take place. 

Pretty sure that is not how it works.  Odium chose Dalinar as his champion but they have not yet set the terms of the conflict as such the challenge is meaningless until Dalinar can confront Odium again.  

7 minutes ago, Bliev said:

I think Odium’s only endgame is freedom. Well, and killing cultivation I’m sure.

So destroying the heralds and the Oathpact, even if he has to raze Roshar to the ground to do it, is the plan. Now he knows he might have to make sure that honor is not able to be reassembled, so making sure that Kal and his wind runners can’t protect Dalinar is a key too.

Odium's end goal is to be the only shard.  Think of it like chess.  The other pieces are only relevant in so far as they can help him kill shards.  Other then that they are meaningless.

Edited December 1, 2019 by Ookla the Prolific