Quick Fix Game 41: The Lord Mistborn's School for Gifted Allomancers

[Snipexe]

21 minutes ago, Abstrusity said:

On average, how many elims are in a game of this size?

3-4

[DeTess]

3 hours ago, Snipexe said:

3-4

Though I think it's unlikely that there's 4 this game (4 gives us Lylo on cycle 3, as there's 14 players).

Anyway, something I've been thinking about with regards to the roles. I don't think most of us will get consistent results (whether consistently the right answer, or consistently the wrong one), as everyone being able to scan, and scans happening before the lynch, means that we'd all know whether we got the right or the wrong info by C2 at the latest. I suspect some odds of getting it right are involved instead. To test this, I'd like to ask those that haven't thought of another target to scan yet to rescan the one they scanned last cycle, to see if the answer you get remains the same.

Edited December 3, 2019 by DeTess
Grammar

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Abstrusity said:

That is a possibility, I suppose. I think whatever force is misdirecting our scans is enough balance on its own though, depending on its scope. My suspicion of Devotary has been heightened by the lack of any defense on their part, with their only comments not responding to accusations. And let's not forget that people can lie about their scan results, though there seems to be little point in that since no one knows what's really going on. 

I can say that it would be foolish to put suspicion on elim!me by voting that late in the cycle knowing perfectly well that Striker was going to die anyway. My vote would merely have made Lemon die as well, which is not at all worth exposing myself to the lynch and the alignment scanners the elims presumably knew were out there(unless it is true the elims don't have abilities as they can fabricate scans equally well without actually having any abilities.) I would like to have a majority lynch though, and killing me would at least confirm Lum's alignment or prove my scans are useless.

[DeTess]

13 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I can say that it would be foolish to put suspicion on elim!me by voting that late in the cycle knowing perfectly well that Striker was going to die anyway. My vote would merely have made Lemon die as well, which is not at all worth exposing myself to the lynch and the alignment scanners the elims presumably knew were out there(unless it is true the elims don't have abilities as they can fabricate scans equally well without actually having any abilities.) I would like to have a majority lynch though, and killing me would at least confirm Lum's alignment or prove my scans are useless.

You could have voted that way either in the hope that someone else would join you in saving striker, and/or while planning to use this argument if the gambit failed and the vote's suspicion was brought up.

I'm not 100% convinced you're evil, but between your vote and the fact that I scanned you last cycle I feel like you're the best bet for the  lynch for this cycle.

[Lumgol]

I'll vote for Devotary. I'll also scan them.

If they're in the lead and get majority-lynched, we'll learn their type. I know that I'm not evil, so if Devotary's Type is that of the lying alignment scanner, then that explains things. If Devotary has a truth-telling type, then there's likely some role that obfuscates or redirects scans.

Also, just speculating here, it's possible that some people have types that make them always scan village, or elim, or a 50-50 chance of scanning either way.

[Wonko the Sane]

All right, it looks like the people have spoken. Devotary. Still not comfortable about this, especially about the lack of resistance to it, but a majority is worth it.

I'll try to be around again before turnover, but it's D&D night, so I can't promise anything.

And yeah, I, too, am scanning Devotary, just in case.

[Abstrusity]

Mundric sat alone, in his small hat stand. Night had fallen, but students still stood and spoke with one another, albeit in hushed tones. Mundric exhaled softly. This was terrifying. Who would take care of his hats if he died? As his father always said: "Once the hat is torn, limbs will soon be shorn." Mundric surreptitiously clutched his knitted sombrero closer around him. The hat was wide and warm, but a pervading cold filled him. His signature triple-tier top hat seemed to chafe his head. 

A single scrap of leather fell to the floor.

--

Edit: This is nerve-racking.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Abstrusity

[Darkness Ascendant]

Y'all are confusing me as to the Devotary bandwagon, so imma also do an iso on devo.

Points out the useless nature of role claiming however is not the first person to do so- Neutral read.

Weirdly less supportive of the lynch on Striker due to the amount of people voting on him. Slight elim read- really shaky reasoning.

Really doesn't add much until he weirdly agrees to being lynched for more information?? Maybe there's a role that wants to get lynched guys?

I do not like this post sam I am, I do not like bullcrap and uh ham.

"The people have spoken" How is that any justification for making your own decision- you clearly have spoken @Wonko the Sane and have said you don't like the lynch and then you waltz right into it. Sounds like an eliminator trying to get in a village kill whilst having a backdoor later on.

- I also scanned Wonko last cycle and he scanned village to me.

I do not like how we all seem to be scanning the same people- that seems like the perfect setup for some bullcrem.

I suggest 3 people at the *most* scan Devo

I'm less suspicious of Lum at this state but am concerned at her recession in activity.

Right now I'm throwing my vote on Wonko the Sane

[Lumgol]

5 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

I'm less suspicious of Lum at this state but am concerned at her recession in activity.

sorry, school and my brain are both kicking my chull rn, I'm trying to post and thanks for poking me

(edit: omg the swear filter is hilarious I love it)

Edited December 4, 2019 by Lumgol

[Darkness Ascendant]

4 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

sorry, school and my brain are both kicking my chull rn, I'm trying to post and thanks for poking me

(edit: omg the swear filter is hilarious I love it)

Many lucks that are good be bestowed upon thou

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Just to make sure we get a majority lynch, I can vote for Devotary. That should put me at eight votes out of twelve.

[Darkness Ascendant]

What the heck is going on >.>

[Wonko the Sane]

Like I explained at the time, we badly need a majority. The lynch was already decided by 6-1 lead. I'd rather lynch someone else, but if we're lynching Devotary, we might as well learn how the types work.

[Elkanah]

Sorry I haven't been able to contribute as much today. I don't like the lynch where it's at, but I guess we at least get some info on what "types" means. Tomorrow I should be able to do a deeper dive on what the living players have posted so far. A vote for Devotary here is useless and I don't really think he's a thug anyway, not to mention that I doubt there are any vote manipulation roles at this point... and Devotary just voted for himself. hmm. well, rip in peace. That's either the most desperate elim play, or he's definitely village. Not much we can do now, though.

  I'm almost tempted to see what happens if we get a unanimous lynch. 

[Young Bard]

That's the cycle, everyone!

[Young Bard]

Pandemonium reigned.

“What’s going on?”

“Is everyone here a Tineye?”

“Does anyone want to buy a hat?”

There was one way to resolve this - work together to figure out the mystery.

“We should expel Danjen. I heard they were a Thug.”

“Yeah, that sounds good. Let’s expel Danjen.”

“Sure, Danjen is as good as any.”

There was no real argument, and eventually 

“I guess I’ll go. I’m a Soother - I tried to use Tin to see which of you were any good, but I don’t think the results meant anything for me. What kind of school only accepts Tineyes, anyway? This is meant to be a school for all the different kinds of Allomancers, isn’t it?”

With that, Danjen walked out the door.

---

Lumgol wandered slowly through the corridors. Yesterday, she’d have been worried about a Coinshot, especially wandering alone, but hey, there weren’t any coinshots in this group, were there?

Unfortunately, that didn’t mean she was safe. She wandered into an atrium-like area, and looked up in wonder. What she didn’t see until it was too late was a marble bust toppling over, and falling straight onto her.

Before she faded consciousness, she turned, trying to see where the object had come from… Standing a couple floors up, she could see some kind of figure standing there. She tried to make out the detailes... But her vision was fading, and she could only see a vague shape up there, as she slowly slipped unconscious.

---

Devotary of Spontaneity has been expelled! They were a Confused Tineye and a Student!
Lumgol has been killed! They were a Tineye and a Student!

Vote Count:
Devotary of Spontaneity(8): Snipexe, DeTess, Abstrusity, Elandera, Lemonelon, Lumgol, Wonko the Sane, Devotary of Spontaneity
Wonko the Sane(1): Darkness Ascendant

Confused Tineye: Each cycle, the player may scan a player for their alignment. However, the result will be either Student or Thug at random with equal probability.

Quick sidenote: Please unvote the player you were previously voting on before voting on a new candidate. I'll still count the new vote even if you don't, but it helps for clarity's sake.

Player List:

 

Snipexe
Coda
Lumgol - Student Tineye
Straw - Student Tineye
Wonko the Sane
StrikerEZ - Variel - Determined Thug Tineye
Darkness Ascendant - Dr. Steinman
Abstrusity - Mundric
Lemonelon
Elandera - Emeril
Devotary of Spontaneity - Danjen - Confused Student Tineye
Sart
DeTess
Elkanah - Elias

Edited December 4, 2019 by Young Bard

[Darkness Ascendant]

Confused Tineye.

Wow. 

Incompetent much

EDIT: I'm starting to dislike these mechanics because of how much effort (probability wise) it would take to determine if someone was confused or not, bit of a waste of cycles. PErsonally I honestly think screw the scan actions entirely and focus on analysis and the lynch. Its just not valid or reliable enough to use our tineye abilities. Also be vary of stuff like confirmation bias.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Darkness Ascendant

[Elandera]

I feel like a very confused Tineye at the moment. Bard, this is positively the best trolling I've seen in a while.

1 hour ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

EDIT: I'm starting to dislike these mechanics because of how much effort (probability wise) it would take to determine if someone was confused or not, bit of a waste of cycles. PErsonally I honestly think screw the scan actions entirely and focus on analysis and the lynch. Its just not valid or reliable enough to use our tineye abilities. Also be vary of stuff like confirmation bias.

It means we actually have to do work at it and not just lynch every person that scans as evil. But I don't think we should give up scans entirely. There are probably a few of us at least who have reliable scans, and it could really help later in the game when things come down to just a few players. If a few people have been able to calibrate their scans (scanned several people who later died) and get all accurate results, then they can be statistically certain their results are going to be correct.

Very good point about confirmation bias though. Lynches, early on at least, need to be determined by things other than scan results. I still stand by what I said last time though. There's a good possibility that at least one who was scanned as thug turn is actually a thug. That's down to Sart and DA, I believe, from last turn results. Anyone else get scanned as elim?

EDIT: It might be worth scanning the same person two turns in a row to see if you get consistent results, though I do still believe there may be a redirect ability.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Elandera

[Abstrusity]

Don't forget that elims could lie about their results to throw suspicion.

[Sart]

Ugh. I forgot how quickly these type of games move. Darkness Ascendant. I'm voting on you. As a Thug, you would know the Devotary lynch was pointless, so you would score village points if you fought against it. You also tried to direct suspicion towards Lumgol, who voted on the Elim, and is now confirmed good.

[Darkness Ascendant]

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I feel like a very confused Tineye at the moment. Bard, this is positively the best trolling I've seen in a while.

It means we actually have to do work at it and not just lynch every person that scans as evil. But I don't think we should give up scans entirely. There are probably a few of us at least who have reliable scans, and it could really help later in the game when things come down to just a few players. If a few people have been able to calibrate their scans (scanned several people who later died) and get all accurate results, then they can be statistically certain their results are going to be correct.

Very good point about confirmation bias though. Lynches, early on at least, need to be determined by things other than scan results. I still stand by what I said last time though. There's a good possibility that at least one who was scanned as thug turn is actually a thug. That's down to Sart and DA, I believe, from last turn results. Anyone else get scanned as elim?

EDIT: It might be worth scanning the same person two turns in a row to see if you get consistent results, though I do still believe there may be a redirect ability.

We can't trust the scans at all,this structure allows for anybody to lie and just claim that they're confused should their scan turn out to be incorrect. We wouldn't know unless they're dead and thats an extremely annoying position to be in. I'm just hoping that there are some secret roles that are actually useful instead of this crap. Only in that instance can I accept this as good trolling, right now it just looks like really poor and annoying design.

As somebody who has studied statistics we simply don't know enough to gauge what a good proability of either of us being actually a thug (Obviously I'm not a thug and would never say that I'm a thug but we're just going to assume that Sart and I are neither for the time being since you guys don't have reliable information saying otherwise) If you would like to confirm entirely I suggest some other people scanning sart and I (I'd say 3 for either of us but like I said before...this just feels like an inefficient amount of effort for such a small and quick game...)

Its really not worth scanning the same person twice unless you have lots of people scanning the same person twice. 50/50 chances is just way too arbitrary for one person to accurately gauge.

I really don't think relying on scans right now is the right way to go. For now lets try and make sure everybody gets scanned.

Think of it this way.

- Everybody who gets scanned thug is either a villager or a thug
- Everybody who gets scanned vilalge is either a villager or a thug
- Somebody who gets scanned as both is being targeted by 1 or more confused thugs, from here the lying and manipulation can be annoying and death will only give us absolute information in the loosest sense.

- Somebody who gets consistently scanned as one however, is the only instance where we can reliably trust that information (And even then theres the off chance that everybody scanning them is confused and consitently got the wrong result which is very low but still). The effort to do this is far too difficult as we'd need to be focusing on one or two people each cycle to target and 2 people die each cycle already and as we'd have to announce and direct who's targeting who the elims could easily just kill one of the people that night (Unless they're actually a thug in which case they could easily claim confusion). In this the information we'd be gaining is HORRIBLY inefficient and we must focus more on the other elements of elimination.

For a far more efficient retrieval of information I'll give a potential way of organising people into targeting different and separate people so that we have a 'base' read on everyone and can spend a couple of turns building those scans so we get a better idea of who's actually a thug and who's actually a villager.

1 hour ago, Sart said:

Ugh. I forgot how quickly these type of games move. Darkness Ascendant. I'm voting on you. As a Thug, you would know the Devotary lynch was pointless, so you would score village points if you fought against it. You also tried to direct suspicion towards Lumgol, who voted on the Elim, and is now confirmed good.

5head over here. As a thug you would know that voting on me because as a Thung i would know that the Devotary lynch was pointless so I would score village points so you would score village points.

Checkmate. Only not voting on you because I pity your ability to reason 

EDIT: obligatory mashadar panda because pandemonium

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

 

Edited December 4, 2019 by Darkness Ascendant

[DeTess]

Yeah, the existence of types where there are some odds involved on whether you get the right answer or not doesn't really come as a surprise, so back to good old detective work we go. And by good old detective-work, I mean we start lynching semi-randomly untill we manage to gather some more info  

In all seriousness though, if I exclude the people that voted on Striker and Lemonelon (and myself), I'm left with the following five: Snipexe, Coda, Darkness Ascendant, Abstrusity, and Elandera. So, let's see if anything stands out about them.

Snipexe

Snipexe speculated a bit about possible Roles C1, which is NAI. He also seemed to be somewhat slow in joining the generally accepted theory that everyone is a tineye, which is...interesting. He also tried to throw some shade on Lumgol with little success, which is odd given Lumgol's vote on Striekr the previous cycle.

Verdict: slightly suspicious.

Coda

@Coda has exactly one post to their name, in which they stated a lack of time and voted on Lemonelon. it should be ntoed that the activty filter will take them down if they don't post this cycle, so lynching them this cycle is probably not really a good idea.

Verdict: should talk more

Darkness ascendant

DA purposefully didn't say anything meaningful during C1. I can see where that attitude comes from, as its hard to come up with something to contribute C1, but if no one even tries, C2 will just be C1 all over again, so I don't really like that. I'ts not particularly alignment indicative though.

Anyway, there where some contributions and reads during C2, which is nice. I don't really like their push on Lumgol, but for the rest it seems reasonable, including their decision to abstain on the Devotary wagon (it'd have been more of an elim play to join the wagon than to stand out, I think). I don't really have a solid read on them yet, but I'm not too suspicious.

verdict: slight village.

Abstrusity

They where tone of the first to break open the whole 'everyone is (probably) a tineye' thing, but apart from that they don't really stand out much in their posts. There's some reasonable votes, but not much else. @Abstrusity, right now, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious?

verdict: *shrug*

Elandera

She's active and seems to be working to solve the game, or at least the mystery of this game (which is NAI). She hasn't shared too many reads so far though (I think the only one was a good gut read on me). @Elandera, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious right now?

verdict: *shrug*

I'm going to start things off with a vote on Snipexe.


 

[Darkness Ascendant]

Quote

Yeah, the existence of types where there are some odds involved on whether you get the right answer or not doesn't really come as a surprise, so back to good old detective work we go. And by good old detective-work, I mean we start lynching semi-randomly untill we manage to gather some more info  

In all seriousness though, if I exclude the people that voted on Striker and Lemonelon (and myself), I'm left with the following five: Snipexe, Coda, Darkness Ascendant, Abstrusity, and Elandera. So, let's see if anything stands out about them.

Snipexe

Snipexe speculated a bit about possible Roles C1, which is NAI. He also seemed to be somewhat slow in joining the generally accepted theory that everyone is a tineye, which is...interesting. He also tried to throw some shade on Lumgol with little success, which is odd given Lumgol's vote on Striekr the previous cycle.

Verdict: slightly suspicious.

Coda

@Coda has exactly one post to their name, in which they stated a lack of time and voted on Lemonelon. it should be ntoed that the activty filter will take them down if they don't post this cycle, so lynching them this cycle is probably not really a good idea.

Verdict: should talk more

Darkness ascendant

DA purposefully didn't say anything meaningful during C1. I can see where that attitude comes from, as its hard to come up with something to contribute C1, but if no one even tries, C2 will just be C1 all over again, so I don't really like that. I'ts not particularly alignment indicative though.

Anyway, there where some contributions and reads during C2, which is nice. I don't really like their push on Lumgol, but for the rest it seems reasonable, including their decision to abstain on the Devotary wagon (it'd have been more of an elim play to join the wagon than to stand out, I think). I don't really have a solid read on them yet, but I'm not too suspicious.

verdict: slight village.

Abstrusity

They where tone of the first to break open the whole 'everyone is (probably) a tineye' thing, but apart from that they don't really stand out much in their posts. There's some reasonable votes, but not much else. @Abstrusity, right now, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious?

verdict: *shrug*

Elandera

She's active and seems to be working to solve the game, or at least the mystery of this game (which is NAI). She hasn't shared too many reads so far though (I think the only one was a good gut read on me). @Elandera, who do you consider to be the most and least suspicious right now?

verdict: *shrug*

I'm going to start things off with a vote on Snipexe.

Why are you excluding everyone who voted on Striker and lemonoemaleone?

Not exactly sure about what the "purpose" would be in not being active C1 besides there being no purpose because theres nothing to do to begin with. And query, did C2 end up being the same as C1? And yeah theres a reason my push on Lum didn't go anywhere, was just a gut read that ended up being wrong. Lum was being herself the entire time and that honestly weirded me out a little cos I expected some level of 5head manipulation and plays  Just gotta play more with her I guess.

EDIT: is anybody else's post box thingy where you write stuff messing up big time? Does this post look weirdly formatted in any way? All the quote boxes and sutff look super long to me and I don't want to make anyone get annoyed at all the scrolling XD

Edited December 5, 2019 by Alvron
Edited to clean up messed up quote box

[DeTess]

 

Quote

EDIT: is anybody else's post box thingy where you write stuff messing up big time? Does this post look weirdly formatted in any way? All the quote boxes and sutff look super long to me and I don't want to make anyone get annoyed at all the scrolling XD

yeah, it looks really odd to me.

1 hour ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Why are you excluding everyone who voted on Striker and lemonoemaleone?

Because striker was evil and got lynched after a tight race, and lemonelon was the alternative he pushed

1 hour ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Not exactly sure about what the "purpose" would be in not being active C1 besides there being no purpose because theres nothing to do to begin with. And query, did C2 end up being the same as C1?

C2 wasn't the same as C1, because some people where doing more than posting memes. The purpose I can see to not really participating is that a simple show of activity is generally enough to not get lynched for inactivity, while on C1 people generally get lynched for something they said (see, for example, striker in every game he played in the last couple of months), so if you clearly said nothing while being active, it could just be a ploy to survive.

 

[Guest Coda]

Okay, I greatly underestimated the time requirements of a quick fix. I probably won't do this in the future.

I agree that scanning is useless as one cannot know if they are Confused or not until they get a different result. I scanned Snip and Lemon and they both read as Student for me.