The Big 4 Cosmere Edition. Who wins?

[Bigmikey357]

Okay here's the premise. All 4 of the big Shardworlds participate in a planetary battle Royale for Cosmere supremacy. The catch is that God Level users are excluded. So TLR is out for Scadrial, Roshar cannot have the Heralds, Susebron and the Returned cannot fight for Nalthis. Sel keeps Elantrians because they have no other comparative God users (Dead Shards). Any magic system native to their world can be used on the planet in conflict along with the fuel in the amounts that they'd normally get. Each has a home city on the planet in conflict, 500,000 people a piece, but with their magic users being proportional to their numbers on the home planet, at least initially. More magic users created from the total population is permitted. No reinforcements from home. 90 days to organize their forces.

So who wins?

[Lunu’anaki]

The Big question is, what time period are we talking? Are we just taking the society as we've seen them in published works?

If that's the case then I would say Sel has this fight in the bag. Aons can do so many incredible things because they are essentially using investiture in its least restricted form. I think Scadrial has them at a close second. Nalthis and Roshar are far behind unless Roshar gets both Radients AND Voidbringers, in which case Roshar might have a shot against Scadrial but I still think Sel would have them beat.

 

Now... If we are talking say... Post-Stormlight as a time period for this event, I'm inclined to believe that Scadrial would have much higher level tech than anyone, atleast much better than Roshar and Nalthis. It's hard to tell what Sel would even look like at that point because it's almost 5000 years after the events of Elantris. So I think Scadrial would win hands down in that setting.

[Bigmikey357]

The timeframe of the latest published work seems fair to me. But every magic system that world has is in play. So Roshar gets Knights, Singer/Listeners and Fabrials, Scadrians get twinborn and guns as well as Hemalugy and medallions, Sel gets Forgery, Blood sealing and whatever the Dakhor monks are doing. Nalthis gets the short end of the stick since I don't recall them having anything besides Awakening. I know Brandon said there were other magic systems on Nalthis but we haven't seen them so they don't factor in. But they will have the use of ichor alcohol for Lifeless, condensed cost for command technology and Nightblood since Nalthis is its planet of origin.

[+Invocation]

Scadrial wins for my money. One they adapt to the Lifeless, which would be the only main thing from Nathis since Nightblood would probably be excluded based on power level, they have the technology advantage on everyone except Taldain and Taldain's Sand Mastery would be countered by most forms of the Metallic Arts via either Thugs just powering through the abrasion, Bloodmakers healing the abrasions at a rate that would tend to distract the Sand Masters, Steelrunners just going around them, or any of the other solutions, Scadrial has the magical advantage to make up for their technological shortcomings in that matchup, even if it's really just a battle of attrition at the end with Scadrial versus Taldain.

Edit: Just noticed Taldain wasn't included anyway. Scadrial wins.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Invocation

[Gilphon]

Roshar has two sizeable advantages for my money- The first is that they probably have the best generals and the best training for their soldiers. The second is the Fused, because they seem to be pretty numerous and there's not gonna be any easy way to put them down short of completely exterminating the Singers. (Oh, and this is a situation where the Windrunner resonance turns out to be very useful, because creating dozens of squires could be a game changer. But they'd have to very lucky indeed to start out with a third-oath Windrunner, given these parameters and the fact that only two of those currently exist on Roshar.) 

Not that it would be a clear cut victory of them- the Lifeless are the most dangerous Rank-and-File forces, outclassing even Soulcaster-supported armies. Elantrians are the biggest powerhouses around by a quite a bit- if you give them breathing room to draw an Aon, they can screw you over in more ways than you can count and it's not clear what it would even take to get rid of them- and Scadrial has clear-cut technological superiority. 

Speaking for Scadrial: between the tech, and the 32 distinct varieties of metalborn, and hemalurgy, Koloss, Kandra and medallions, they just have so many tricks up their sleeves that nobody's gonna have time to adapt to them all, so they could very well have it in the bag if they play their cards right. But what they do not have is anything approaching experience fighting a war like this- so realistically they'd spend those 90 days figuring out stuff that everyone else got done in the first week, and then get blitzed by the Lifeless. 

So I think it's between Roshar and Sel, all in all.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Gilphon

[StanLemon]

If each side has only 500,000 each. At the magic proportions we see in the books then it'll probably be Scadrial. Roshar would probably have the least amount of magic users while Sel or Scadrial would probably have the most. Nalthis is hard to judge because while everyone has Breath it takes a lot to get it useful except their biggest advantage would be the Lifeless.

Realistically though, I think that Nalthis has the lowest chance of victory, followed by Sel at the second lowest. Both of those worlds are the weakest in terms of technology. Despite Nalthis having the Lifeless, which while it would be their greatest advantage I just can't see anything else working in their favor. Sel has some pretty effective magic systems but they grow weaker the further from their source of power they are which would be a major limitation on pushing a war. Though they do share the Rosharan advantage of just being able to create supplies.

The real tossup would be Roshar or Scadrial. I agree that Roshar would have the better military leaders for sure and Soulcasters would be a major advantage over Scadrial. Scadrial has guns and industrialization though. People underestimate just how much of a game changer that is unless they are history nerds. The ubiquity of guns in Scadrian forces would destroy any nonpowered military force thrown at them from the other 3 worlds (except likely the Lifeless which would be an advantage Nalthis has on Scadrial). Adding the relatively high amount of Metalborn compared to the low percentage of Surgebinders, Scadrial would have a magic advantage too. The biggest weakness for Scadrial would be it's inexperience with actual war. That's only counting Northern Scadrial, Southern Scadrial may have more experience which would mitigate or completely remove that weakness. Also Southern Scadrial effectively has nukes which would be an overwhelming advantage.

With no numbers advantage to actually worry about, I would say overall Scadrial has the advantage. Though Roshar would have a decent shot at it. 

[Lunu’anaki]

A couple things to consider: (That basically only Brandon can answer)

How do bullets effect Shardplate?

Would a Shardblade kill a lifeless the same way it kills a human? If so, can an awakener use a breath to bring it back after if there was no internal damage?

[Gilphon]

I suspect that bullets would take down Shardplate eventually, but it would take more than one shot. And that a Shardblade could kill a lifeless, but it wouldn't stop an Awakener from bringing it back.

I'm thinking that if it comes down to Roshar vs. Scadrial, Scadrial probably wins under these rules. But there's a lot potential for things to go bad for Scadrial early on, with the other three capitalizing on their lack of experience. And if things play out like that, Roshar probably wins.

[Honorless]

While all the magics etc might allow for a close shave to who comes out on top, if the war is dragged out then Roshar would win.

The need for supplies is a big factor in any war that Soulcasting bypasses, plus so many high mobility Orders. But those can still be competed against by Elantrians and certain Metalborn.

The deciding factor is that the Knights Radiant can replenish their ranks the fastest in comparison to the others. Allomancy and Feruchemy requires genes, Selish magics require high degree of expertise, Elantrians are chosen by some obscure process set up by Devotion, Awakening requires a huge population to give up their Breaths.

Too many advantages stacked up towards the Rosharans. Unless some unknown Selish magic or Awakening technique or very surprising strategic use of Hemalurgy happens, I don't see the other Shardworlds winning.

[Aon Tia]

My money is on Roshar as well. In addition to all the points already mentioned, Also note that Rosharans also come with a lot of Shardblades, the likes of which no other Shardworld possesses. Nalthis has Nightblood but it is still one blade and one which requires a lot of breath to fuel it and if run out if fuel, could be very fatal to its holder. And there are not many people who can hold it in the first place and not kill themselves. For scadrials, they have use of bullets but those you can run out of. And even aluminium bullets can be very costly and therefore very limited. 

Secondly, there is the matter of Shardplates. I agree that they might be affected by bullets but we will also have a lot of alive new shardplates, who i think if damaged can be very easily repaired.

thirdly, not only soulcasters and soulcasting but Rosharans have Regrowth also. Only other world who can easily heal others is Sel but i think there Aon based healing is much more complicated and requires a lot of expertise as compared to Regrowth. Although i believe that awakening can lead to healing others but that as of now, Nalthians are not aware of, so it is ruled out. 

And then what all the singers can do, with all those songs that they have about different forms, if we have access to all of them here, then i think Roshar is quite unbeatable in the long run or the short run. 

[Bigmikey357]

Don't forget that since there's 4 combatants,the possibility for alliances exist. For example, Scadrial's tech edge over the other three means they may be the biggest initial threat. And while I think Scadrians are a match for any of the other 3 world's one-on-one, they are going to have a problem with multiple world's if they decide to gang up. Or one believes Rosharan forces pose the largest threat, having Scadrial as an ally would help immensely for either Sel or Nalthis. Elantrians seem like natural negotiators, they should have no issues forming an alliance. That 90 day ramp up if for more than preparing an army, it's for forming Hunger Games type alliances, aka temporary ones.

[StanLemon]

I could see Sel allying pretty easily with any of them pretty easily. Roshar on the other hand I think would have a hard time allying but still possible. I'm not sure how well Nalthis would do. Scadrial potentially could have it easy or hard depending who they have in charge of diplomatic relations. 

I still think Scadrial with their Harmonium nukes would be the big guns though in a conflict. None of the other worlds would see it coming as they don't have any point  of reference for a weapon that  powerful. One use of that could potentially wipe an entire army off the board.

[Aon Tia]

4 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Roshar on the other hand I think would have a hard time allying but still possible. I'm not sure how well Nalthis would do.

I think that Roshar already has enough relations with Nalthis that an alliance might be worked out. We have zahel and vivenna. And nightblood knows people on Roshar too. Might talk in their favour too. 

[Karger]

8 hours ago, Lunu’anaki said:

A couple things to consider: (That basically only Brandon can answer)

How do bullets effect Shardplate?

Would a Shardblade kill a lifeless the same way it kills a human? If so, can an awakener use a breath to bring it back after if there was no internal damage?

Shardplate is fairly good against bullets but it will eventually crack.  Two or three shots I think it was.

Shardblades will kill lifeless.  An awakener might be able to reuse the corps but they would need much more breath.

With no alliances Scadrial wins hands down.  Soothers and rioters should be able to take down lifeless no problem, Elantrains are nasty but aluminum bullets should kill them fairly easily and their are not that many yet.  Also those that exist are not well trained.  Finally they can only go so far from their power base.  An opponent can just wait around outside for as long as they want.

The Rosharans could be a problem but they only have about 100 people with Radiant abilities.  Scadiral's population data indicates they will get about 2000 metalborn(I am not going to count fused they seem a bit to single minded to be useful and if Roshar brought any they would loose).

Taldain's sandmasters can just be shot with snipers no need to get fancy.

[NameIess]

On 11/5/2019 at 10:46 AM, Karger said:

Shardplate is fairly good against bullets but it will eventually crack.  Two or three shots I think it was.

That is Wax, he has vindication, and is a Coinshot/iron ferring, able to push on the bullets to give them extra momentum, even increasing his weight to give himself super pushes. Most people couldn't crack it that easily.

[StanLemon]

51 minutes ago, Llstml said:

That is Wax, he has vindication, and is a Coinshot/iron ferring, able to push on the bullets to give them extra momentum, even increasing his weight to give himself super pushes. Most people couldn't crack it that easily.

He's talking about normal guns, not Steelpushed ones. Wax could probably break through Plate with one shot. Rereading Way of Kings makes it pretty clear that while stronger than standard armor, Plate is nowhere near as invulnerable that a lot of people think it is. In Dalinar's vision with the Midnight Essences he is able to fight off one of them without Plate yet in that same scene a single attack from the ME is able to crack the Plate. Also in the big fight at the end of the book, it's normal weapons that are breaking through Dalinar and Adolin's Plate in that battle. Sure it takes a little while for muscle powered weapons to do that but it's still enough. Guns on the otherhand put a lot more umpf into a much smaller area so their is more force. I doubt it would take more than a few shots from a decent caliber rifle to break Plate.

[NameIess]

8 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

He's talking about normal guns, not Steelpushed ones. Wax could probably break through Plate with one shot.

This is the WoB that talks about this:

Quote

Questioner

How many shots would it take for Wax using his gun to break a section of Shardplate?

Brandon Sanderson

Depends on the gun... Okay, so Vindication. He could probably... depends on the bullet, cause he's got several styles. But let's just say two or three. There's an argument he could do it with one, with the right shot, the right bullet, in the right moment.

So unless there has been a new one, it is talking about Wax.

Quote

Also in the big fight at the end of the book, it's normal weapons that are breaking through Dalinar and Adolin's Plate in that battle. Sure it takes a little while for muscle powered weapons to do that but it's still enough.

"A little while" is while he is constantly fighting at the forefront of an outnumbered, surrounded force, against enemy's that are in a form specifically made for war, using battle axes, as well as having developed methods of breaking shardplate?

Edited November 6, 2019 by Llstml

[Karger]

1 hour ago, Llstml said:

That is Wax, he has vindication, and is a Coinshot/iron ferring, able to push on the bullets to give them extra momentum, even increasing his weight to give himself super pushes. Most people couldn't crack it that easily.

Sure but if you have a few hundred people shoot at the shardplate is is going to break quickly,

[StanLemon]

@Llstml that WoB doesn't say anything about him pushing on the bullet. Just Vindication and might I remind you that Vindication is a handgun, whereas rifles are often stronger.

Also, sure that was at the forefront but bullets are more forceful than axes and the like. A squad of riflemen could take down a Shardbearer from a distance.

[Bigmikey357]

A squad of modern rifles likely could shred Shardplate but not Scadrial level ones. 2 reasons. Muzzle velocity is going to be awfully low and the rate of fire isn't going to be as high. It takes training to get a squad like what you are proposing to get a rate of fire up enough to defeat a determined force charging all in Shardplate. Even then consider if these troops have Plate they're going to have blades too. The blades are indestructible and can morph into shields at the speed of thought. So front rank Radiants charge with a shield wall, back rank gets in close to take out firing squad while they're reloading.

[StanLemon]

10 minutes ago, Bigmikey357 said:

A squad of modern rifles likely could shred Shardplate but not Scadrial level ones. 2 reasons. Muzzle velocity is going to be awfully low and the rate of fire isn't going to be as high. It takes training to get a squad like what you are proposing to get a rate of fire up enough to defeat a determined force charging all in Shardplate. Even then consider if these troops have Plate they're going to have blades too. The blades are indestructible and can morph into shields at the speed of thought. So front rank Radiants charge with a shield wall, back rank gets in close to take out firing squad while they're reloading.

Era 2 Scadrial guns are roughly equivalent to late 1800s to early 1900s firearms. By then guns had the strength to tear through steel and had while not semi automatic for the most part, did have a decent rate of fire. Secondly, by the terms you yourself set up there aren't enough living Shardblades to do what you propose. Most Shardbearers will be using dead Plate and Blade. Not counting the Skybreakers, there is less than a dozen living Shardblades. The Skybreakers would be Roshar's most powerful asset as far as actual combat goes but the amount of them that have Plate would be limited as it's implied in Oathbringer that only a few have said the fourth Ideal. And that's before you reduce their number to make it proportional to 500,000 Rosharan soldiers.

[NameIess]

On 11/4/2019 at 11:29 PM, Bigmikey357 said:

The timeframe of the latest published work seems fair to me. But every magic system that world has is in play. So Roshar gets Knights, Singer/Listeners and Fabrials, Scadrians get twinborn and guns as well as Hemalugy and medallions, Sel gets Forgery, Blood sealing and whatever the Dakhor monks are doing. Nalthis gets the short end of the stick since I don't recall them having anything besides Awakening. I know Brandon said there were other magic systems on Nalthis but we haven't seen them so they don't factor in. But they will have the use of ichor alcohol for Lifeless, condensed cost for command technology and Nightblood since Nalthis is its planet of origin.

 I assume that he meant that they get the knights at their height, but I could be wrong. @Bigmikey357, Is that what you meant by this?

[Bigmikey357]

Indeed. And nothing in my scenario keeps knights from progression. Most Orders only need 3 Oaths to get a living blade and all Radiants can heal themselves with enough Stormlight. Guns are a huge advantage, don't get me wrong. But the planet most able to mitigate that advantage is Roshar. 

[Aon Tia]

58 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Not counting the Skybreakers, there is less than a dozen living Shardblades. The Skybreakers would be Roshar's most powerful asset as far as actual combat goes but the amount of them that have Plate would be limited as it's implied in Oathbringer that only a few have said the fourth Ideal.

Don’t you think that Skybreakers and windrunners can just swoop in from the sky and disrupt the rifle regiment formation. They can just grab hold of these rifles and snatch them away, stormlight offers them the increased strength and if those rifles are fired once, the windrunners and Skybreakers can heal themselves.. right? all they have to ensure is that they are not hit in the face... 

 

[StanLemon]

18 minutes ago, The traveller said:

Don’t you think that Skybreakers and windrunners can just swoop in from the sky and disrupt the rifle regiment formation. They can just grab hold of these rifles and snatch them away, stormlight offers them the increased strength and if those rifles are fired once, the windrunners and Skybreakers can heal themselves.. right? all they have to ensure is that they are not hit in the face... 

 

Theoretically maybe, in practice probably not. As I've pointed out, there won't be many Windrunners or Skybreakers. Scadrial on the other hand would be insane not to arm every one of their soldiers with guns. Sure they have healing but as seen with Wayne, gunshot wounds typically use up a decent amount of Investiture to heal as even when he has a decent amount of Health stored up he has trouble with more than a couple of shots. Most of the Skybreakers won't have Plate and none of the Windrunners will leaving them more vulnerable. Also, Scadrial could have Pewterarms mixed in which are at least as strong as a Surgebinder but with the added bonus of enhanced dexterity, agility, endurance, and durability.

All this is a moot though, as soon as Scadrial finds out how troublesome Roshar can be they could just drop a nuke and obliterate the Rosharans. It is very very unlikely that Roshar would see an attack of that magnitude coming. Sure they would see the airships, and they would likely have superior mobility to them and even down a few by cutting up the fans with Shardblades. But they wouldn't see such a destructive weapon coming, all Scadrial would have to do is distract Roshar's flyers long enough to drop the bomb.