Mid-Range Game 38: The Council of Elrond

[StrikerEZ]

22 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Even if you intended to vote for Aman to begin with, your willingness to bandwagon is disillusioning; if you’re village, it makes it harder to get good discussion on lynch candidates and can lead to accidental runaway lynches on Spiked, as well as the general problem that it frustrates attempts at analysis; meanwhile, if you’re evil, the above properties make it an excellent smokescreen for your actions, and also appear to be an easy way of either gaining village credit by voting for several villagers, or justifying a vote on a leading evil candidate in the long run. (To be fair, I’m leery of Aman, which is why I’m staying on the Rath lynch despite uncomfortable bedfellows (Wonko), and may be judging you too harshly in light of this, but I believe my points still stand.)

I really should be doing homework, but I'm gonna take some time to respond to this since I got the notification for it anyway.

In my defense, I'd always intended to vote on Aman for this cycle. It was only when it appeared that no one else would be willing to vote for Aman that I decided I should help get someone that I hadn't yet gotten any elim vibes from (or any villager vibes, if I'm being honest), get elected over other players I strongly believe to be elims. I wasn't expecting Kas to switch to Aman, but it made Aman's election a little more viable, and a much better alternative to me than Rath or anyone else currently up for election. It doesn't help that a player I don't really trust (Wonko) was the one to offer up Rath for the vote. I'm a little curious why @Amanuensis decided to vote on Rath over himself, and if he'd be willing to move his vote now that me and Kas have voted for him.

Vote Tally: 

(0) Fifth: Kasimir(1), 
(1) Wibble: Bard, 
(2) Aman: Aman(1), Striker(1), Kasimir(2), Striker(3),
(1) Bard: Wonko(1), Coda,
(3) Rath: Fifth, Wonko(2), Aman, Striker(2), 

Also, Fifth, I'll admit I'm kinda wondering what makes you think I've been hopping on bandwagons. First cycle, I voted on myself mostly as a joke, then moved my vote to Aman and stayed there. This cycle, I again voted on Aman, and only briefly switched it to Rath when I felt like he was gonna be the only alternative to a player I didn't trust. 

Edited November 15, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My hesitation with him is that what he has said isn’t strongly AI for him, though to be completely fair Rath hasn’t said much of note this cycle either. 

Of certainty, Aranmir could concede he was not utterly certain about Aman. He had gone back and pored over what had happened in the council meeting, and found himself staring at the long minutes taken down by Lord Elberond's appointed scribe, but if there were more among their number who had fallen under the Enemy's sway, as seemed likely the case, they were not apparent to Aranmir, and he felt the long hours with an elf-light nevertheless leave a sharp ache behind his eyes.

Give him a foe that could be cut down by a blade; he knew not all enemies were best defeated by the sword, and yet it was the mind and the tongue that had proved to be a battlefield on which his choices had gone awry.

He could not be entirely certain of Yuriel, though he thought Yuriel's allegiances and even Phellom's would shed light on the halfling shirrif, and by extension, the elf-scholar Tinuial. [OOC: Ngl, I go back and forth about Aman - my own analysis inclines me to think he's Village though I have worked out some conditions under which he could be Evil, and then I read the thread and I'm like "whoa I stopped playing and I come back and suddenly Ada is Lucifer  what's up guys" And then I doubt my own analysis!]

What he thought just as interesting was the sudden push for Rath, with little indication why. Aranmir thought he had some idea of what the others might be thinking, and yet it seemed to him that he wanted to know what those reasons really were. [OOC: I'll bite. I think I know why, but - to everyone who voted, why Rath? If your confidence in Rath is contingent on your confidence in Aman - why Rath? I'm not saying 'Please vote Aman,' I'm saying it's not clear to me how Rath-voters seem to be reasoning, and so I can't analyse it, and I want to analyse it  I am also amenable to changing my vote as I'm not sure I trust RNGesus or my own judgement very much at this stage >> ]

Edited November 15, 2019 by Kasimir

[Elbereth]

As a reminder, the cycle will end in just under one hour. 

[Elbereth]

The cycle is closed. 

[Elbereth]

Elrond sighed. “We are agreed, then,” he said finally, glad to have the discussion finished with for now. “Rath shall go.”

The sun was setting, now, flaring the brilliant autumn leaves even redder but leaving the courtyard below in shadows. They had talked for hours upon hours, trying to decide after even Ulmo failed who might have a chance not to be corrupted. 

They’d finally settled on Rath, a dwarf from the Lonely Mountain who had come bringing dire tidings. He’d be going back in that direction regardless, and the Council thought that perhaps if the powerful could be corrupted so easily, the weak and insignificant might have more of a chance.

Elrond looked at the Ring hanging around Gwendolyn’s neck - even he could feel its pull for a moment, and he wondered if it would be better not to keep it far from this Council, in case it could somehow be influencing their minds. 

But he knew that was foolishness. The Ring could not see or hear. It could only allure and corrupt. And it seemed to have corrupted even a Vala, which he’d not thought possible. 

Even if it could not touch his thoughts, he would not venture near it. Just to be safe. 

---

The first frosts of winter had begun to bite by the time the Fellowship finally set off. 

Rath smiled, breathing in the crisp air. Rivendell has been a lovely comfort, to be sure, but he was glad to be going out into the world again. Too much calm, too many Elves. Couldn’t turn a corner without seeing one, and he couldn’t help but feel that they were always watching him. 

“Let’s go, then,” the dwarf said, impatient with farewells, and started walking without a backward glance. 

He could hear his companions following behind. A motley lot, he reflected, but perhaps enough to get the job done. He could only hope: hope that none of them were already corrupted by the Ring, hope that Sauron’s servants could not find them, hope that they would make it in time to save Middle Earth. 

He could only hope. 

---

Ulmo was not with them, of course. He had no need for it: he was in every spring and stream, any water that touched the Sea. 

And beside, the Fellowship had made it clear he was not wanted among their number. That was fine - he had only been there, in truth, to bring his Chosen onto this Fellowship if he could. 

The world would rest on them yet more than him, now. He hoped they would be up to the task. 

---

Rath was one of the Free People of Arda!

Vote Count:
Aman (2): Kas, Striker
Bard (1): Coda
Elbereth (1): Straw
Rath (3): Aman, Fifth, Wonko
Wibble (1): Bard
 

Cycle 3 has begun; etc etc sorry but I’ve got to go! 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Elbereth

[Kasimir]

[OOC: Fantastic! Hope you got some good rest, El - you seem really exhausted these days and please don't run yourself down to the ground.

I'm still genuinely puzzled by the reasoning for Rath, and would be interested to hear why, during or after the game. My sense is that either SE developed collective telepathy back when I stopped playing, or there's some new argument in the meta that's become widely-accepted that I haven't heard about. Or there's some new consensus about player behaviour based on how he typically behaves. And I'd like to know what it is, especially if it's some cool new meta argument!

Anyway. The real issue to me is that the lynch was more or less uncontested (not seriously uncontested, which makes me pretty nervous), and that for someone who was pretty keen on getting lynched a couple of days ago, Aman decided to...go lynch someone else. Moreover, I definitely saw you checking out the thread a few hours before the end of the cycle. What's up with that, then? @Amanuensis

I think it's safe to say at least one of the following is true:

1. Some Corrupted voted on alternative candidates [=whether Village or otherwise] but did not sense enough momentum to try to go for another lynch.
2. Some Corrupted voted for Rath in order to gain Village cred.
3. Some Corrupted just lay low for this cycle and did not get seriously involved.

In particular, #1 leads us to an interesting conclusion, because I think it reflects somewhat well on Aman: given that no one in the thread seemed to really doubt Aman being a Villager, apart from some "well he's Aman" doubts going on, I would imagine that tying the Aman-Rath vote might get someone a few ??? looks but it's not utterly implausible either, and if Aman were Corrupted, would have gotten the Corrupted a 50% chance at shooing one of their own in. Which would be another indicator for Village Aman IMO, though I'm starting to get influenced - as it were - by Karl Marx - sorry, I mean the Aman is Lucifer camp and to doubt everything I'm thinking about right now  

In general, I think all of these are probably true to some degree - after all, not all the Corrupted will be going for the same strategy.

Of our extreme inactives [ @Pejidot @xinoehp512 @Aragorn], I almost want to say that they might be good bets for Villagers, but I'm not confident of this diagnosis to want to play around, especially because we just don't have enough information to be able to comment much. I wouldn't advise going for them unless in extreme desperation. Peji, at least, has been checking their PMs and has looked at the thread once, so I don't want to rule out that they might be lying low.

Edited to add: And, to get things started - I'm going to park a vote on Fifth again, barring better analysis from me. I also see that pinging xin has induced them to check the thread, so they're still keeping an eye on things as well.]

Edited November 16, 2019 by Kasimir

[Fifth Scholar]

Have about ten minutes so I’ll make this brief: 

I voted for Rath because I liked his voting position, not because of anything meta (aside from a general awareness that he wasn’t confirming closely to his elim style). Most of the C1 voters seemed to be trying to dodge attention, bury their vote in an implausible candidate, or bandwagon, and Rath not really doing any of those in my memory make him stick out as a good candidate. I have no idea why anyone else voted for him, though. Especially @Wonko the Sane—I’d particularly like his reasonings. His vote is a good candidate for a Corrupted player trying to gain credit. 

Agree that the inactives are too much of a shot in the dark. I’ll drop a vote on Burnt for now. I’ve seen you in PMs, and would like more of you in thread.

If I was voting off of serious analysis, it’d be a cycle out of date, but I’d be going for Aman, probably. I trust Kas’ tone but not his votes, and would like more participation overall. 

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I trust Kas’ tone but not his votes, and would like more participation overall. 

shot through the heart
and you're to blame
you give gut
a bad name
i tried so hard
just to play this game
you give gut
a bad name

j/k  Ngl, after the STINK debacle, I wouldn't trust my votes either, though given how many people I've put votes on by this point in time, I'm fairly certain I've hit at least one Corrupted!

[Wonko the Sane]

I don't have a ton of time right now, but I needed to make at least one thing clear:

I've just learned that Peji is dealing with some pretty hectic RL stuff right now, and she gave me permission to say that in the thread. There's a good chance she'll continue to be pretty inactive for a while, for completely non-game-related reasons.

And while I'm here, Rath got my attention as a player who wasn't trying to get my attention. I'll say again that the elims cannot afford to skate by in this game; they need to be part of the discussion, because they need to be trusted. I'm aware that, having done this, we've now established that laying low was a way to get trust, but since no one else seemed to be thinking this way, it seemed unlikely that the elims would be just waiting and hoping that someone had the thought. From here on out, obviously, it becomes NAI, but prior to now, low-level activity that wasn't inactivity was worth a certain amount of trust in my book.

And because I don't have time for analysis right now, I'll lay a vote on Fifth for voting with me on that, if for different (vaguer) reasons. I don't trust Fifth enough that I'd be ecstatic about electing him, though, so I hope I come up with something else when I've got time for analysis.

[Kasimir]

[OOC: Hey guys, so actually there's a secret role in this game and that's me. Remember there are the Ten Fools on Roshar? I'm the Eleventh Fool  My role powers include the ability to amazingly miss out on votes (which you saw in action on D1) as well as the 1337 power to derp and forget we can't vote for ourselves  Sorry @Amanuensis  I take back my ping.

Anyway, I'm a bit short of time this weekend due to an urgent work request, so I will likely be both crying inside at the epic derailment of my NaNo catch up plans and also rushing a lot and intermittent here.]

Of all that were present, Aranmir thought that he could trust only a few. Or at least, he suspected them less than some of the others, which was not especially a powerful recommendation when it came to selecting the Fellowship. He had thought Yuriel [ @Amanuensis] might prove a good candidate, for there was a story there which had yet to reach completion. Yuriel bore little love for the Enemy and his Ring. Yet, it was said that Yuriel possessed no small measure of insight, and that her honeyed words made her a dangerous foe to be reckoned with. Why then did those of the Enemy amongst them not seek to place Yuriel on the Fellowship, and in doing so, silence her?

There was Gwendolyn [ @Wonko the Sane], the one who had brought the Ring to Rivendell. Aranmir distrusted Gwendolyn's arguments, for certainly, the servants of the Enemy among them were numerous enough [OOC: I take it as being 4-7, with 4 and 7 being the most unlikely extremes] that he did not doubt they could be anyone within the council chamber. They did not need to all dominate discussion or make their voices heard; it was similarly unlikely they would be all silent. Those who spoke actively would become more and more suspicious as they misled the council, and those who were silent or just barely making their voices heard would then be good candidates to gain trust, or to be slipped into the Fellowship by their more vocal counterparts. [OOC: I'm aware that last game isn't necessarily a good basis, nor is the rest of SE history, but Eliminator teams have traditionally comprised a combination of players, and @Coda was clearly occupying a calculatedly low level of activity despite his extensive (and impressive) strategising in the Eliminator doc. Too, personal playstyle may take precedence over optimal play. I'm not saying we should assume that the Corrupted will play suboptimally, I'm just saying it seems a stretch to me to assume they'll optimise, and it's also another stretch to argue they have to be high-activity to optimise. Now, I don't want to hit every argument Wonko makes - I'm flagging this because I really don't think we should necessarily take this as being alignment-indicative even when examining retrospective player behaviour, much less player behaviour going forward.]

But suspect arguments did not mean that Gwendolyn was corrupted by the Enemy, Aranmir knew, though he wondered at her ability to resist the lure of Isildur's Bane. Did he suspect her? Possibly, Aranmir conceded. After all, Gwendolyn could be trying to draw attention off fellow servants of the Enemy who were attempting to remain hidden for the nonce, by implying that the more active members of the council were suspect. But he was not so sure about that. Aranmir was impressed by Gwendolyn's defense of Phellom [ @Young Bard], though he was not certain he was convinced by it. It seemed a strange position for one of the Enemy to occupy, particularly because - if Phellom proved to be compromised - Gwendolyn would immediately be suspect. Moreover, there were better candidates for Gwendolyn to defend which would not have called so much scrutiny on herself. To that extent, Aranmir was willing to extend a tiny amount of trust towards Gwendolyn. [OOC: IMO, part of this will turn on which way Bard flips - I think it unlikely for Wonko and Bard to be Eliminators together at this stage just because defending Bard is rather counterintuitive when Wonko could basically gain village cred elsewhere. Similarly, Wonko could absolutely be an Eliminator defending villager!Bard to get some villager cred - but again, Wonko's arguments for Bard I find just unconvincing enough that it seems he has better places to gain village cred more easily! So I'm not ruling out that Wonko is Corrupted, but I am a little more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt at the moment. Not enough that I'd vote him just yet though.]

Aranmir found his attention drawn to Astranwir the Blue, however. He had heard of the wisdom of the Istari, and yet Astranwir preferred to make cryptic announcements that Lord Elberond was clearly the best choice for the Fellowship. He hoped Astranwir [ @Straw] could be prevailed upon to share his wisdom.

[Fifth Scholar]

Okay, this is quite demoralising. I don’t know if the Spiked are inactive, or the village, but regardless of who’s around, we need people to actually talk if we want analysis! I’m running another game whilst busy with schoolwork, and have written more this cycle than most people.  

Kas is taking enough pains to create discussion that I’m starting to trust him in spite of both myself and the Stink vote, but removing the only person fanning the flames of discussion is a poor idea even if he is village. That said, Burnt’s failure to respond disheartens me, and out of the one other player (Wonko) who’s posted this cycle, I...would not vote on him now, despite his activity and willingness to actually comment—for one, the stances he took last cycle, while perhaps typical for Wonko, don’t inspire any confidence in me, and because of that, keeping him around for a few more cycles to glean more about his alignment would be useful before we decide if he should be elected. Same goes for Kas, really, though again there’s a lot more trust there  

10 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Aranmir found his attention drawn to Astranwir the Blue, however. He had heard of the wisdom of the Istari, and yet Astranwir preferred to make cryptic announcements that Lord Elberond was clearly the best choice for the Fellowship. He hoped Astranwir [ @Straw] could be prevailed upon to share his wisdom.

This is one thing I don’t understand, Kas—I see Straw’s vote on El each cycle as a convenient way of escaping analysis, not a basis for trust, and I’m curious why you’ve chosen him. That said, your points on Wonko and Aman are interesting, and ones I hadn’t considered; given these, and knowing that Aman’s wagon was started by a villager (Rath), I may move my vote to Aman by the end of the cycle. I won’t deny that I would like to be elected this turn, though, both so I can stop multitasking with this game and the LG, and because while I have never had confidence in anyone’s alignment other than my own, that trend is being exacerbated by the voting patterns and general quietness of everyone else making it so that I’m struggling to form even basic trust. >> I’ll probably go back and reread the old cycles, and put something up between now and rollover if I have time; if not, at the beginning of next cycle. If I’m elected I’ll post something incomplete before rollover if I have to

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Sorry for not resoonding fifth, im currently a little overwhelmed with getting final assessment stuff done which is all due shortly after this cycle ends so, tad busy >> im fairly certain i dont have time to do much analysis until after thats done but if i find a moment where i can afford to procrastinate a little ill try but i may not get to posting again this cycle. Ill try but yeahhh....

[Young Bard]

Apologies for disappearing.

For those who voted for me last cycle, I'm surprised - if I had been in their shoes, I'd likely not have been the candidate they chose. I'm a little suspicious of Coda, who I agree is flying under the radar and seems to be trying to get some village cred.

Also, last cycles results are... interesting. They suggest one of three things to me:

1) The Elims decided to lie low and try to get village cred
2) The Elims wanted an alternate candidate lynched, but were trying to lay low and not be seen to be voting in a bloc
3) The Elims are at least partially inactive.

(Yes, I know Kas basically did very similar analysis already, but mine is marginally different enough that I felt it worth writing out anyway, if only to get my thoughts on a page.) Personally, I think 2 is the most likely, possibly with a member or two in Category 3. I feel sorry for the Elims if that's the case, especially in a game like this where losing a couple members who might otherwise have been nominated can put an otherwise achievable goal beyond reach.

1 seems unlikely to me, simply because they don't have that much time to wait around and let villagers be elected - this is doubly true when you consider how more information generally favours the village, so it's in the Elims interest to try and ram through as many candidates as possible as quickly as possible - on that, I do agree with Fifth, but I disagree that it incriminates me any more so than any other candidate that voted for Stink C1.

OK. Here's the problem I'm having. I want to vote for a player who I've been able to gather some kind of read on, and who's flip will tell me something about other players in the game. But, there's only a few players like that (that list would be Kas, Fifth, Wonko, Aman and myself rn, I think.) And yet, most of those people are people who I specifically have in my suspicions list right now, and the rest are still too valuable because conversation is flagging right now and in some ways we can't afford to send a player who's too active away.

To my great surprise, Aman/Yuriel. You've voted well, and if you had been a Corrupted, I'd have expected you to take the opportunity last cycle and get yourself elected, but you chose to help elect Rath instead. I can't reason why you would do that as a Corrupted unless you were just playing next level mind games with us all for the fun of it. Which, if anyone would do that, it would probably be you, but even then I find that extremely unlikely.

---

"Yuriel has my support." Phellom muttered. He didn't look at any of the others - he knew how much of a backflip this was from his firm stance just a short time ago. "I've thought about it, and... I don't think I see a better alternative out of the people here. Perhaps some of you will think I'm one of the corrupted for my backflip. Well, many do anyway, so I don't exactly have much more to lose. So, I guess I'm prepared to vote for Yuriel, who would probably make a good addition to the Fellowship."

[Fifth Scholar]

47 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Sorry for not resoonding fifth, im currently a little overwhelmed with getting final assessment stuff done which is all due shortly after this cycle ends so, tad busy >> im fairly certain i dont have time to do much analysis until after thats done but if i find a moment where i can afford to procrastinate a little ill try but i may not get to posting again this cycle. Ill try but yeahhh....

You’re fine, and that’s understandable—thanks for taking the effort to check in despite your busy-ness, as I certainly didn’t mean to condemn you. 

With my apologies: @Straw, @Coda, @Amanuensis, @xinoehp512, @Pejidot, @Aragorn, @StrikerEZ, @GoWibble, @Young Bard, if you don’t have time for a full post, that’s fine, but knowing that you exist and are reading through this would be appreciated. Also, a vote, even a quick one, would be very nice as well. 

Edit: ninja’d by Bard. Thank you for...responding?  

Edited November 16, 2019 by Fifth Scholar

[Guest Coda]

Fifth

[Straw]

Elberond

[Amanuensis]

I haven't really done enough analysis to say who I trust right now. But I think I'd be down to vote Striker, based on0 I'm of course happy to get elected this cycle. But I'm also happy to stick around and try to help us get the right people in. 

[StrikerEZ]

Sorry, I’ve been really busy for most of yesterday and today. I don’t really have time to post anything big, but I’m gonna vote on Aman. I’ve been trying to get him elected since the beginning of the game.

[King Aragorn of Gondor]

I don't trust most of you.  I guess I'll vote on Aman too.

[StrikerEZ]

37 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

I don't trust most of you.  I guess I'll vote on Aman too.

If you want to vote on Aman, type [ color=red]Aman[/color] without the space after the first bracket

Edited November 17, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Kasimir]

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

This is one thing I don’t understand, Kas—I see Straw’s vote on El each cycle as a convenient way of escaping analysis, not a basis for trust, and I’m curious why you’ve chosen him.

RNGesus loves him more than you will know~
Oh oh oh

Okay more seriously - I saw it the other way around. There are honestly less blatant ways to escape analysis, e.g. piling onto established bandwagons and just not moving your vote, which would be better ways for an Eliminator to slip under the radar. This is blatant (and I'll be honest, a little infuriatingly unhelpful), which makes me think that it's not quite what an Eliminator would aim for. But those of you who have played more with Straw can confirm if it's de rigeur for him. 

Other things that informed my decision (note that this is not my final voting decision) : I did up some vote analysis (El [@Elbereth] has ruled it can't be shared whether in aesthetic or unaesthetic form]) as promised, and I noticed that I am the most promiscuous voter in this game and I intend to continually be shamelessly promiscuous. Also because: I complained I think a cycle or two ago that we were focusing on too narrow a swathe of candidates so I'm taking that to heart by trying to advance different candidates, even if I don't feel them, and make the strongest case I can find myself making for them, and see if people complain it's thin gruel or something. That might be informative anyway. I note you also agreed the Village can't afford to hunker down around the same candidates again and again!

(I realised that in PMs, I was identifying the same few people for my Fabulous Five, and felt that this was unproductive, and probably a product of cognitive bias. So I looked at the vote distribution analysis I did and deliberately picked someone I hadn't voted for and tried to see what might get me to feel voting for them. I'm still lukewarm on this, but this is the best considerations I can offer for Straw. I admit, I was also trying to kick some bushes and see what came out of them.)

My current Fabulous Five [to reiterate, people I would vote into the Fellowship today if I had to pick 'em all at once]: Myself, Wonko, Aman, Striker, and potentially I'd take a gamble on Peji, which more or less spells out how undecided I am on my trusts, or at least, people I am less suspicious of.] I could be persuaded to swap Bard in based on certain fallout from the lynch today, which looks more and more to me like I'm feeling an Aman lynch.

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

1 seems unlikely to me, simply because they don't have that much time to wait around and let villagers be elected - this is doubly true when you consider how more information generally favours the village, so it's in the Elims interest to try and ram through as many candidates as possible as quickly as possible - on that, I do agree with Fifth, but I disagree that it incriminates me any more so than any other candidate that voted for Stink C1.

Yes and no - if their active, discussion-controlling players have suspicion on them, you'd think it'd be easy to throw a vote onto Rath or some other known villager just to get brownie points. I'm getting a bit bearish about 'more information' now, simply because we haven't been substantially discussing, and because discussion and suspicions without GM information (from the lynch) need to be taken with a pinch of salt. The lynch is exactly how we correct our biases and mistaken assumptions/inferences, and we only get 7 in total, and 2 more chances to get it wrong.

That being said, I largely agree with you that if given a chance to ram candidates through, Eliminators would have, so the fact they didn't indicates there was no chance for this to be done, at least not without further compromising themselves. (The reasons for this are numerous, and I admit it's one reason I'm still not comfortable voting you into the Fellowship - one natural read of the situation is that an Eliminator who could have rammed things through was just not around for the punch. Given the Rath-Aman lynch ended up being 3:2, it's definitely the case that it was possible to force an evil Aman through. This is partly why I am a bit more confident about Aman.) But I also have some confidence in the proposition that some Eliminators might have been trying to gain trust. Ironically, the fact you didn't push for Rath or another suitable candidate, which would have been a way to try to get some trust makes me a bit more positively inclined to you. But that being said, you could certainly have calculated the trust accrued from Rath would have been negligible too.

So my current state of thoughts:

Quote

Tentatively Fabulous: Wonko, Aman
Maybe Fabulous: Striker (depends on which way Aman flips), Bard (I am not sure about this but can be persuaded to shift him around), 
Dunno: Peji, Straw, xinoehp512, Wibble
Feels Suss, Might Delete Later IDK: Aragorn, Fifth, Burnt
Yeah, Nope: Coda

 

3 hours ago, Aragorn said:

I don't trust most of you.  I guess I'll vote on Aman too.

Welcome to SE  

[Pejidot]

I am indeed alive! I don't want to miss another vote so I'll do Aman for now. 

[Young Bard]

I'm worried that there isn't really any opposition to this lynch - either the Elims have already won so they don't need to do anything or they're not prepared to back a lynch of an alternative candidate. Guess we'll see in a couple hours. Also, the other worry is that the Aman lynch is killing discussion, so I'd like @Pejidot, @StrikerEZ, @Coda and @Straw in particular to discuss there opinions on at least one other player - preferably one of Fifth, Kas, Wonko or myself - do you trust/distrust them, and why?

Kas - I still have a bit of distrust for him, but a lot less now that the initial paranoia has died down. I still wouldn't be prepared to vote him into the Fellowship at this stage, though.

Fifth - I can't really get much of an alignment indication from most of their posts - they generally make sense and have good arguments, but I'd expect that regardless of alignment. I'd be leery about electing them to the Fellowship right now. There's a part of how they play that seems almost... safe? Like they're just going after some of the more obvious suspicions, not really saying or doing anything that would be likely to cause too much controversy or suspicion - I suppose that gives me a slight Elim read on them, though I might revise that later.

Wonko - I think I generally lean village on Wonko - defending me in that way last cycle probably isn't likely to gain him village points with a lot of people, and the fact that he did makes me think he's more likely to be a villager just trying to work things out. If I had to vote for someone other than Aman, Wonko would probably have my vote.

Next cycle, I intend to go over some of the less active players and see if I can form opinions about them. I started typing out some of that analysis here, but I realised that for several of the players, it depends heavily on how Aman's alignment flips, so I may as well wait to see how that pans out.

[Elbereth]

The cycle will end in one hour. 

[Elbereth]

The cycle is over; the next will be posted in an hour. Sit tight!