Mid-Range Game 38: The Council of Elrond

[Wonko the Sane]

Okay, so I finally got the time to peek in here, and catch up. Sorry to vanish like that.

19 hours ago, Kasimir said:

The other issue is that this doesn't take into account strength of trusts: for instance, Wonko is more willing to vote for you and himself, given the choice, than me.

Umm... Kas? Striker isn't on my list at all. And since I haven't been paying enough attention to him, I'd really rather elect you than him. (Or me. I'm obviously a little too busy to give anything more than sporadic activity, so I might actually be ideal this round, if others are willing. Others besides Fifth, I mean. )

So, Kasimir.

Sorry about being so brief here, but I'm hoping to get at least one more post in before bed, and I've already spent like an hour catching up. I need to post this now if I want to give people time to respond.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Umm... Kas? Striker isn't on my list at all. And since I haven't been paying enough attention to him, I'd really rather elect you than him. (Or me. I'm obviously a little too busy to give anything more than sporadic activity, so I might actually be ideal this round, if others are willing. Others besides Fifth, I mean. )

Storm it >> Sorry, I think I got you mixed up with Bard  Bard is much, much more willing to vote you and Striker than me  Honestly, I think his paranoia is kinda cute and I wonder if that's what it's like, being the Dread Pirate Wilson, the Cursor of Doom, the Herald of Chocolate and Deliciousness, but alas  

I am somewhat willing to vote Peji now, though I have been convinced by the fact Ada clearly thinks that Striker is the right choice  Waits for El to twitch Or mostly because Striker has voted straight Village for three cycles in a row. I'm not entirely comfortable with him - there are in fact some things that make me uneasy about him - but I'm willing to take the chance, as I deem it an informative lynch, we do still have room for error, and if he flips Evil, I'll have my suspicions on the Eliminator team make-up moderately confirmed  

[Wonko the Sane]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Storm it >> Sorry, I think I got you mixed up with Bard  Bard is much, much more willing to vote you and Striker than me  Honestly, I think his paranoia is kinda cute and I wonder if that's what it's like, being the Dread Pirate Wilson, the Cursor of Doom, the Herald of Chocolate and Deliciousness, but alas  

I am somewhat willing to vote Peji now, though I have been convinced by the fact Ada clearly thinks that Striker is the right choice  Waits for El to twitch Or mostly because Striker has voted straight Village for three cycles in a row. I'm not entirely comfortable with him - there are in fact some things that make me uneasy about him - but I'm willing to take the chance, as I deem it an informative lynch, we do still have room for error, and if he flips Evil, I'll have my suspicions on the Eliminator team make-up moderately confirmed  

That post has way too many ""s. XD

Peji is the inactive I'm most willing to vote on, but that's a far cry from actually getting a vote from me. RE: Aman's votes on Striker, confirmed Village =/= confirmed right, and all that. It seems to me that Aman's votes on both Striker and Rath were primarily because they were voting on him, and he wanted out of the game. I don't think that really counts as "trust".

I don't really have time to go back through the entire game right now, so I'm going by my gut impression, which is that Striker's been very reactive the entire game, and has been carefully maintaining the activity he'd need to get trust, while never actually pushing any real discussion. I'm not really a fan of that, as gut impressions go.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

It seems to me that Aman's votes on both Striker and Rath were primarily because they were voting on him, and he wanted out of the game. I don't think that really counts as "trust".

Dude, I was joking - I said and that my actual vote was based off Striker's voting patterns, and the fact it would be informational  It's obvious Villagers can be mistaken, or I'd have gone for the Ada lynch on Day One. I know intimately well better than to make that inference! 

3 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I don't really have time to go back through the entire game right now, so I'm going by my gut impression, which is that Striker's been very reactive the entire game, and has been carefully maintaining the activity he'd need to get trust, while never actually pushing any real discussion. I'm not really a fan of that, as gut impressions go.

Fair enough  (Oh sorry, another  ! I blame El, I'm easily-influenced >>;; ) I used to be a lot more gung-ho on gut, but right now /shrugs I'm hardly going to fight a vote on myself as I don't find myself very helpful to the Village - that being said, I am, for obvious reasons, not going to shift my vote off Striker just yet  

[Wonko the Sane]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Dude, I was joking - I said and that my actual vote was based off Striker's voting patterns, and the fact it would be informational  It's obvious Villagers can be mistaken, or I'd have gone for the Ada lynch on Day One. I know intimately well better than to make that inference! 

Oh. Oops. In fairness, with all the smileys, it was kind of hard to tell what was actually a joke up there. 

2 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair enough  (Oh sorry, another  ! I blame El, I'm easily-influenced >>;; ) I used to be a lot more gung-ho on gut, but right now /shrugs I'm hardly going to fight a vote on myself as I don't find myself very helpful to the Village - that being said, I am, for obvious reasons, not going to shift my vote off Striker just yet  

Equally fair, especially without any really compelling alternatives. There's me, but there's not a lot of steam behind that right now (I'd say I'm beating you on the low-contribution front, though ). Fair warning, if he flips evil, I'm looking at you for basically creating a lynch no one else was considering. I can see the entire rationale you've laid out, but it doesn't change that you pretty much singlehandedly selected the vote this round, which makes me uncomfortable.

I really should have been paying more attention, it seems, since I have no idea why you think Striker's an informative vote right now.

I might or might not be able to respond one more time. I have to get to bed.

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

Fair warning, if he flips evil, I'm looking at you for basically creating a lynch no one else was considering. I can see the entire rationale you've laid out, but it doesn't change that you pretty much singlehandedly selected the vote this round, which makes me uncomfortable.

Interesting, since Bard chose the vote. He was the literal first player to vote on Striker  I just happened to agree with him for separate reasons and to support him.

But thank you for your response - you have confirmed my suspicions of the Eliminator team  

4 minutes ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I really should have been paying more attention, it seems, since I have no idea why you think Striker's an informative vote right now.

That's because I haven't explained myself and I don't intend to, as I'm not campaigning for Striker to be voted in by everyone. I haven't campaigned since Day 1. I don't intend to spell out my reasoning as I want more discussion, and more players to explain where they stand. Doesn't seem like I'm going to get it at this stage, though. Unfortunate.

[Wonko the Sane]

7 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Interesting, since Bard chose the vote. He was the literal first player to vote on Striker  I just happened to agree with him for separate reasons and to support him.

But thank you for your response - you have confirmed my suspicions of the Eliminator team  

Oh. See, this is why I prefer long, well-considered posts. 

And... you're welcome, I guess?  Am I on it? It feels like I'm on it.

I can accept the private motivations. I guess we'll see how this goes. I have to go to bed, now; see you (hopefully ) tomorrow.

[StrikerEZ]

I lost a whole lot of a post that I spent a lot of time on.  Let's see how much I can remember.

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I don't really have time to go back through the entire game right now, so I'm going by my gut impression, which is that Striker's been very reactive the entire game, and has been carefully maintaining the activity he'd need to get trust, while never actually pushing any real discussion. I'm not really a fan of that, as gut impressions go.

I would just like to say that it's a lot easier to be reactive when you don't have much time to spend reading and analyzing the game. I ended up being a lot busier during this game than I expected, and that's definitely impacted my ability to do analysis. I'll admit though, I have had some large chunks of free time I could've spent on analyzing...but I've usually chosen to just spend some time doing fun things like scrolling through Twitter or watching pointless YouTube videos.  

Anyway, here's basically my thoughts after rereading everything that's happened:

1. Straw: Mildly annoyed, but their recent post makes me feel a little bit better about them. Not enough to elect them right now, but I'd maybe think about electing them if Kas or Fifth or 2. Wonko (or any combos of those 3) are elims (assuming we don't elect me).
3.  Fifth Scholar: I've generally trusted him so far, and that remains the same. 
4. Coda: Felt a little off, wouldn't recommend electing them
5. Kasimir: Has felt very villager-y in our PMs, but I'm not blind to the possibility that he's been pocketing me.
6. Xinoehp512: Has he even posted? 
7. Wonko: I really don't want him elected. I trust Bard more than I originally did, but Wonko still felt off to me while I was doing my reread. If Kas and Fifth are elims, then I'd bet Wonko isn't though.
8. Pejidot: She hasn't really done much to make me suspect or trust her.
9. Burnt Spaghetti: I've been getting pretty neutral vibes from her so far, with some villager-y vibes here and there. Probably wouldn't elect her though.
10. Aragorn: I dunno.
11. StrikerEZ: Obviously village.
12. GoWibble: They haven't given me any reason to not suspect them after their vote on Stink. 
14. Young Bard: Starting to trust him a lot more now than I originally did. Our recent PMs have me trusting me more than I did before, and I could see a scenario where he chose to vote Stink in a panic when he realized the cycle was almost over and he didn't want anyone else who might've been elected if it'd stayed a tie getting elected.

I really need to sleep, so this is either gonna be my last post of the game seeing as I'm still in the lead to get elected (I think), or I'll wake up and have to actually continue to pay attention to this game.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Vote Tally:

Striker (3): Bard, Kas, Straw
Kas (1): Wonko, 
Wonko (1): Fifth

 

--------

So, if i'm honest, i'm more than happy with a striker nomination.

My current thoughts- The corrupted either need to get one of their own nominated this cycle, or ensure they all become trusted enough peoples that they can guarantee they can get one of their own in each cycle for the rest of this game.

My thought process: If striker is village, then primarily fifth, and secondarily now Wonko, are the players who are directing attention elsewhere with votes atm. Which has a suspicious feel to it. Now that being said, if striker flips evil i'd probably be a little more inclined to trust them both considerably more.

And again, all that being said, I'm cautious about Wonko, but both striker and Kas I personally trust. And if a striker nomination is going to net us info, my head goes "well how can we maximize the amount of info we gain?" and for some reason, the answer was "lets make it a closer match and see what happens!" soooo yeah. Kas  

[Fifth Scholar]

Interesting at the lack of support for Wonko, and the two-way lynch which is once again developing. As I’m a little nervous about Striker, Kasimir seems to be the best choice, though I do worry about the state discussion will be in if he leaves, regardless of his alignment. 

[Young Bard]

OK, there's 4 options here:

1) Striker is Village, Kasimir is Elim - 45% odds - I view this as the most likely. The Elims are in a pretty bad spot right now, with only two more Villagers needing to be elected, and more people who are trusted than that, presumably without many people being wrong. As such, they're forced to vote more in a bloc than they'd otherwise like. This assumes an Elim team with Fifth, Burnt, Kas, and with a less certain chance of Wonko and Coda being in the group as well.
2) Striker is Village, Kas is Village - 30% odds - I was originally going to put this much lower - I don't think there's time for the Elims to not vote on of their own in this cycle. But, that could be flipped on us when Kas flips Village, and make out the Striker lynch to be the one that is actually being manipulated by the Elims while giving the remaining Elims a trust read - this again assumes an Elim team of Fifth, Burnt, and possibly Wonko, as well as a couple people not involved in the Kas bandwagon (Coda would be my guess for one, no idea about if there's another.) If this is their strategy, then I played right into their hands, and there's a chance that it will win them the game.
3) Striker is an Elim, Kas is Village - 20% odds - I'm the Honorary Eliminator of the Game, and owe a big apology to Fifth and Kas for my suspicion.
4) Striker is an Elim, Kas is an Elim - 5% odds - We're doomed. But this is incredibly unlikely.

This... is going to be an interesting flip, however it goes. I'm increasingly certain that somewhere along the line I've been played for a sucker, but I'm still not sure from who or where or why. We'll see with the new cycle, possibly. :/

[Kasimir]

[OOC: Well. Striker. So, out with it. Confirmed Villagers can be wrong. This is true. I may be wrong. But nevertheless, I will finally stop being coy, and hinting, and leaving you with my suspicions. My suspicions are not bedrock. I can make mistakes. Treat them with caution. Find the flaws in my arguments. If you cannot find them, then reason accordingly.

I think the Eliminator team includes Fifth and Wonko. I am less certain about Bard and Striker, but this would be my guess. Striker is either a Villager who is doubling down, or an Eliminator who refuses to turn on a teammate. Bard is either an excessively overparanoid Villager, or an Eliminator. If Striker is not an Eliminator, then suspicion should turn to Coda. Avoid voting them unless you must.

I have taken a chance on Burnt, but I acknowledge she would have behaved the same either Village or Eliminator. I am more confident of Aragorn and Peji, as they sealed a vote on Ada, against Fifth, my strongest suspect. Wonko and Coda had tied the vote 2-2 last cycle - we know Ada is a confirmed Villager, and we don't know about Fifth. Such a movement should be suspicious. Everyone was asking, "Where is the Eliminator action? Oh, they must be inactive." Why postulate that? The answer is right there: they tried to get Fifth voted. They failed because of Aragorn and Peji. As such, I have a modicum of trust in them.

My strongest suspicion is Fifth. Why do I suspect Fifth? A few reasons.

Spoiler

 

First, despite advocating for it, he initially did not diversify his votes, returning to Burnt time and again. This is one reason I am unsure about Burnt. But why would a Villager who isn't Straw keep voting on the same few people? Look at the strategic picture: a Villager votes widely because we don't know the answers. We doubt. My suspicions have gone a 720 degree change since the beginning of the game. We must take in new information. Who doesn't do that? Someone who knows the answers, or seeks to frame. A Corrupted.

To be sure, he has voted as well (now) on Wonko and Striker. I do not take his vote on Rath to be alignment-indicative. For one, it creates trust. For another, there was no viable alternative lynch that cycle - the alternative was Aman, whom Striker and I were voting for. A Villager-Villager choice is none at all, and a wise Eliminator would throw in and gain trust as a result. Second, Fifth's statement that he finds Burnt to have contributed well to the discussion, and hence voting for her - really? Burnt claims they haven't said anything more since their first PM on Cycle 2 about the Night Kill. For sure, Burnt could be lying. This is unclear to me. But clearly, Fifth and Burnt cannot both be truthful, for it's difficult to consider Burnt a good discussion contributor in the absence of PMs.

A second reason is what Fifth said, earlier. He asked me and Wonko to talk about the semi-actives in line with the theory that the Eliminators are likely semi-actives. First, why endorse that theory? What reason do we have to think it's true? More importantly, if this theory is true - if you do think the Eliminators are semi-actives - why ask the Village to look in a pool of candidates with a high probability of being Eliminator? We should be focusing our discussion on Villager candidates! We do not gain points for identifying Eliminators, though knowing who not to vote is helpful. With discussion being as dry as it is, why drag discussion to somewhere it won't be helpful for the lynch, and might even hurt? I submit: either to distract, or to drag discussion off where it should be. If it is misdirection, then the Eliminators are likely active - if not, then he hoped to smuggle in a semi-active Eliminator on the lynch.

A third reason: Wonko and Coda piling on a Fifth vote against the Aman vote. Wonko acknowledged earlier that Aman was a strong trust for him - his strongest. Where does the sudden trust of Fifth against Aman come from? I suggest: we should treat this as enemy action. It does not necessarily say anything strong about Coda, but the fact Wonko tied the vote against Aman, a Villager should be suspect. They were at each other's throats two cycles ago. So where does this sudden mutual trust and willingness to vote each other between Fifth and Wonko come from? Don't just look at what they say - look at what their actions do. Again - doesn't look good at all.

A fourth, weaker reason: Fifth talks about how Eliminators would go all out to vote their team in from the start. Funny, 'cause if I were an Eliminator, I'd misdirect - I'd point one way, and when the Village is looking, I'd do the other thing. Funny how the Eliminators are acting in the opposite direction, hmm?

 

Then there's the Wonko issue:

Spoiler

Wonko and Fifth pushing me on Bard and Striker. Why? Wonko in particular insists - or attempts to, before I pushed back - that if the Striker lynch shows him as Evil, then I of all the many people who indicated they trusted Striker, of all the many people who voted on Striker, must be Evil. Seriously? Does he already know Striker will show up Evil? Because it sounds like he knows what the result will already be and he's preparing to frame me to take the fall for it. After all, I already have one mislynch on my record - STINK.

For Striker:

Spoiler

 

My suspicions are weaker. On the one hand, he clearly voted Villager for three cycles in a row. On the other hand, it is not impossible that once the Eliminator team saw Aman was being active, they decided they really wanted to get rid of Aman. For another, - and this is another weak point of unease - I would expect most Villagers would be okay with getting a strong trust elected. I certainly have been, for the past few cycles, before Striker did things that made me uneasy

Striker claims I'm his strongest trust, and that he'd be happy to vote on me if the lynch develops. And then he retracts his vote. Why? He was leading the lynch, and if I was his strongest trust, I'd be a good back-up in case of Eliminators trying to do bandwagon or lynchtrain shenanigans later on. And yet, he pulls the vote - right after I post my results showing that we are the two leading compromise candidates. I worry that's consistent with an Eliminator trying to secure the lynch. If a Villager gets lynched this cycle, they're in very dire straits indeed.

For another, Fifth, my biggest suspicion, voted on him  He has also been extremely unwilling to suspect Fifth despite argument, which could be Village, to be fair, but which I associate more with an Eliminator refusing to turn on his comrades. Finally - Wonko's behaviour this cycle.

 

The one place my theories don't account for: why did Fifth and Wonko vote me? I am not certain. I admit, this could be the flaw in my argumentation. But it could be the IKYK, or it could be just to silence me and dominate the discussion and voting, if I am right about the composition of the Eliminator team. (Bard's 30% odds at #2 doesn't work out - the obvious answer is to vote for someone who isn't any of the above-mentioned, including Striker. And as I'm Village, the Village now just has to get it right one more time. One person out of the entire game pool who isn't compromised. Please, try to manage that  And as I have said, I may be wrong. I played a little coy with my suspicions. But I voiced them more explicitly to Bard and to Burnt, and later to Peji as well. ]

Aranmir packed the last of his belongings and prepared for a long journey. He hardened his heart against the song of the Ring. Isildur had fallen. Centuries and centuries later, Aranmir would not fail.

There was a cloth-wrapped bundle, slightly longer than his arm, resting on the bed. He hauled it up, the cloth slipping free as he did so.

He looked at it for a very long time.

It was time to go to war.

[Elbereth]

The cycle is closed. 

[Elbereth]

Aranmir and Yuriel worked day after day with the Elven smiths, and even when Aranmir slept the clanging of metal upon metal filled his dreams. The forge smelled of sharp steel and hot coals, and its sweltering heat made him sweat despite the cold of oncoming winter outside. 

Aranmir was glad to have been elected and free of the Council; he would much rather be here, helping to remake his sword into its full glory. 

While the smiths reforged the blade, Yuriel worked on the hilt, retracing its intricate designs, restoring it to brightness after centuries of dirt and grime. 

Only days before the Fellowship was to set off, it was finally finished. Very bright was that sword when it was made whole again; the light of the sun shone redly in it, and the light of the moon shone cold, and its edge was hard and keen.

The blade itself was straight and long, the metal smooth but worked in curling patterns of steel within steel. The hilt and the top of the blade were graven with swirling Elven markings which read:

I am Andúril who was Narsil, the sword of Elendil. Let the thralls of Mordor flee from me. 

For Aranmir had renamed it Andúril which means Flame-of-the-West, and he thought it a fitting name. 

---

Kasimir is one of the Free People of Arda!

 

Vote Count
Kas (3): Burnt, Fifth, Wonko
Striker (2): Bard, Straw

Cycle 5 has begun. It will end in 47 hours. 

Player List

1. Straw - NPC, Astranwir the Blue
2.  Fifth Scholar - Robin Smallburrow, hobbit Shirriff fleeing “Sharkey”
3. Coda - Aidenn, scholar studying the effects of the Ring on the psyche
4. Kasimir - Aranmir, a captain arriving from Gondor Free People
5. Amanuensis - Yuriel (First Finder) Free People
6. Xinoehp512 - the Observer
7. Wonko the Sane - Gwendolyn (Elf from the Grey Havens)
8. Pejidot
9. Burnt Spaghetti - Tinuial (Clandestine Attendee)
10. Aragorn
11. StrikerEZ - Striker, bootleg Strider
12. GoWibble - black hat from XKCD
13. Rathmaksal Free People
14. Stink - Ulmo Corrupted
15. Young Bard - Phellom (Elf of Mirkwood)

 

[Young Bard]

Ah, right. I'd wondered what Kas's mysterious RP references were about. That makes sense.

OK, the Elims have to win every cycle from hereon out, or else the village wins. Believe it or not, I'm mostly on the same page as Kas about who the Elims are, except for myself - my suspected Elim team by mid-last cycle was Fifth, Burnt, and to a lesser extent Wonko and Coda (the sudden shift around with Wonko was because of conversations with Kas, who successfully changed my mind on Wonko based on his voting record - going against the Aman lynch Cycle 3 to vote with Coda on Fifth). I still trust Striker, though - if Striker really were one of the Elims, as Kas was suggesting, I can't see a Fifth/Burnt/Wonko team moving a bandwagon off of Striker that they had essentially gotten for free without being implicated, losing a seat and possibly the game, for the sake of getting only a mild trust read in return.

I'm OK with voting for one of Striker, Straw, or myself. Further, given that I know I'm under a degree of suspicion myself, I am happy to toss my vote behind any of those three people that people most think I should vote for - for now, I'm placing it temporarily on Striker again, as the candidate that I think most people can agree on as being a villager, despite Kas's final post. Their voting record makes no sense from an Eliminator perspective - they have consistently voted for Aman to be elected, where those votes could have been placed better from an Elim perspective to try and get one of their own in.

The one I'm most confused by is Peji - several people including Kas have expressed trust of Peji, and I have no idea why - presumably good PM things happened, which I haven't seen. If there's more to it than that, I'd be interested to hear it.

[StrikerEZ]

I’m...a little disappointed that Kas didn’t keep the vote tied at least. I’m glad I was right about him being village though.

@Kasimir For what it’s worth, I removed my vote from you because I still had my worries about whether or not you were village, and figured my own lynch would be more likely to occur if yours had less votes. I didn’t think you’d remove your vote from me after I went to sleep. I did have a feeling that the lynch was gonna change while I was sleeping, just didn’t predict you’d be the one to change it.

Anyway, I still think I’m our best shot at this point. I’ve had the best voting record in the game so far, I think. I don’t remember voting on anyone who has not already been confirmed village. I guess I could be doing that as an elim who already knows who’s village and who’s not, but why would I allow 2 villagers to get elected in a row like this? The elims are at a severe disadvantage at this point. They need to elect 3 elims in a row. If we elect one villager at any point, we win.

Bard just voted for me, so that’s a good start. At this point, I think the only other person I’d feel safe electing would be him. If people don’t agree that I should be elected, my vote will go to him. 

[Fifth Scholar]

I obviously disagree that either of you should be elected.  I would point out immediately (I’m going to try to commit to a long refutation of Kas’ points against me) that confirmed good is not confirmed right, and that just because Kas is village doesn’t mean he bears the Gospel Truth of Alignment. Just immediately, though, I would point out the following: 

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Kas (3): Burnt, Fifth, Wonko
Striker (2): Bard, Straw

There are four Eliminators, and three could outvote whoever they wanted as a candidate of their choice. If Burnt, Wonko and I are evil, we have no incentive to choose Kas—granted, I don’t fully trust either of them, but if they’re a team I’m certainly not on it, and I currently trust them the most out of the entire voting pool. I’m also suspicious that Striker and Bard have been working to build trust all game, and tried to cash in that trust last cycle before it blew up. If they are evil, which is the most probable outcome with the information I have, we should *not* be electing either of them. More thoughts to follow, and hopefully much better explained analysis, but I’ll once again lay my vote down on Wonko, as I believe he had good points in his debate with Kas yesterday, and because our recently opened PM has given me good feelings about him even if I’m not as active in it as I’d like to be. (Same with my PM with Burnt, really >>)

[StrikerEZ]

56 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I obviously disagree that either of you should be elected.  I would point out immediately (I’m going to try to commit to a long refutation of Kas’ points against me) that confirmed good is not confirmed right, and that just because Kas is village doesn’t mean he bears the Gospel Truth of Alignment. Just immediately, though, I would point out the following: 

There are four Eliminators, and three could outvote whoever they wanted as a candidate of their choice. If Burnt, Wonko and I are evil, we have no incentive to choose Kas—granted, I don’t fully trust either of them, but if they’re a team I’m certainly not on it, and I currently trust them the most out of the entire voting pool. I’m also suspicious that Striker and Bard have been working to build trust all game, and tried to cash in that trust last cycle before it blew up. If they are evil, which is the most probable outcome with the information I have, we should *not* be electing either of them. More thoughts to follow, and hopefully much better explained analysis, but I’ll once again lay my vote down on Wonko, as I believe he had good points in his debate with Kas yesterday, and because our recently opened PM has given me good feelings about him even if I’m not as active in it as I’d like to be. (Same with my PM with Burnt, really >>)

This post doesn’t surprise me at all. If anything it just confirms for me that I was wrong to trust you earlier. I’d begun suspecting you last cycle when Kas pointed out (can’t remember if it was in a PM or in the thread) that you consistently tried to get us to focus on inactives...yet didn’t vote for any most of the time. And not just that, but if you did get us to vote on an inactive, we would have no real clues about their alignment. Plus it distracts us from focusing on players who actually have content that can be analyzed. 

I can’t wait to see who the 2-3 other players that come out of the woodwork to vote for Wonko are.

[Fifth Scholar]

36 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

This post doesn’t surprise me at all. If anything it just confirms for me that I was wrong to trust you earlier. I’d begun suspecting you last cycle when Kas pointed out (can’t remember if it was in a PM or in the thread) that you consistently tried to get us to focus on inactives...yet didn’t vote for any most of the time. And not just that, but if you did get us to vote on an inactive, we would have no real clues about their alignment. Plus it distracts us from focusing on players who actually have content that can be analyzed. 

I can’t wait to see who the 2-3 other players that come out of the woodwork to vote for Wonko are.

And, to return fire, I see little in here to suggest you’re a villager—the lack of doubt reads like an Eliminator’s attempt to marshal up trust. I tried to get inactives and semiactives to post, and thought involving them in discussion was a good idea so we could get analysable content from them, because they’d be posting, and therefore make them active participants in discussion, but never suggested we vote for them above good, active targets; this is one of the key misinterpretations that Kas made. Also, I have been hovering on the verge of activity myself because of the LG, have felt frequently disheartened trying to respond to the large walls some people are putting up, and am generally just happy that despite my impotence we’re somehow winning. I just don’t think it’s you who are leading the effort against the Eliminators. You don’t have to trust me or lynch me; I don’t think I’ll get back to that point. 

If other people vote you, are they “coming out of the woodwork?” Some might be, but I make no presumptions, as I thought you were village most of the game, and suspected Aman towards the end. Why are you trying to shut down discussion on a lynch vote, instead of considering it? It would be very convenient if you were doing so to drive people away from what might be the only viable alternative to a mislynch on yourself. 

[StrikerEZ]

46 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

And, to return fire, I see little in here to suggest you’re a villager—the lack of doubt reads like an Eliminator’s attempt to marshal up trust. I tried to get inactives and semiactives to post, and thought involving them in discussion was a good idea so we could get analysable content from them, because they’d be posting, and therefore make them active participants in discussion, but never suggested we vote for them above good, active targets; this is one of the key misinterpretations that Kas made. Also, I have been hovering on the verge of activity myself because of the LG, have felt frequently disheartened trying to respond to the large walls some people are putting up, and am generally just happy that despite my impotence we’re somehow winning. I just don’t think it’s you who are leading the effort against the Eliminators. You don’t have to trust me or lynch me; I don’t think I’ll get back to that point. 

For what it’s worth, I’m not 100% sure you’re an elim. We won’t know until the game’s over. But I feel pretty confident that you and Wonko are elims. (I’ll probably be wrong about one of you, but I’m not sure which one, and I’m not willing to vote for either of you). 

(Also, I’m sorry about the way my last post sounded. I definitely didn’t mean for it to sound so harsh).

That makes sense about the inactive thing. I still don’t trust you because I very much don’t trust Wonko.

46 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

If other people vote you, are they “coming out of the woodwork?” Some might be, but I make no presumptions, as I thought you were village most of the game, and suspected Aman towards the end. Why are you trying to shut down discussion on a lynch vote, instead of considering it? It would be very convenient if you were doing so to drive people away from what might be the only viable alternative to a mislynch on yourself. 

I mean, I was saying that if someone who’s been basically completely inactive this entire game came and voted on Wonko...I’d think that’s a little weird.

[GoWibble]

On 11/19/2019 at 8:59 AM, Young Bard said:

Ah, right. I'd wondered what Kas's mysterious RP references were about. That makes sense.

OK, the Elims have to win every cycle from hereon out, or else the village wins. Believe it or not, I'm mostly on the same page as Kas about who the Elims are, except for myself - my suspected Elim team by mid-last cycle was Fifth, Burnt, and to a lesser extent Wonko and Coda (the sudden shift around with Wonko was because of conversations with Kas, who successfully changed my mind on Wonko based on his voting record - going against the Aman lynch Cycle 3 to vote with Coda on Fifth). I still trust Striker, though - if Striker really were one of the Elims, as Kas was suggesting, I can't see a Fifth/Burnt/Wonko team moving a bandwagon off of Striker that they had essentially gotten for free without being implicated, losing a seat and possibly the game, for the sake of getting only a mild trust read in return.

I'm OK with voting for one of Striker, Straw, or myself. Further, given that I know I'm under a degree of suspicion myself, I am happy to toss my vote behind any of those three people that people most think I should vote for - for now, I'm placing it temporarily on Striker again, as the candidate that I think most people can agree on as being a villager, despite Kas's final post. Their voting record makes no sense from an Eliminator perspective - they have consistently voted for Aman to be elected, where those votes could have been placed better from an Elim perspective to try and get one of their own in.

The one I'm most confused by is Peji - several people including Kas have expressed trust of Peji, and I have no idea why - presumably good PM things happened, which I haven't seen. If there's more to it than that, I'd be interested to hear it.

As the Black hatted (?) man stayed aloof from all of the drama, Young Bard  ( and striker) overlooked his presence. Time to come back.

*though, really, more of us need to play 

 

Hey, thanks for not lynching me while I was out. The people seem to say to lynch Striker, so Striker it is (for now). I'll try to hold back from being that person who flips the vote, but that depends on whether you guys allow me to... 

Edited November 20, 2019 by GoWibble

[Straw]

As I think I said last turn, Striker seems to be the safest bet.

[Fifth Scholar]

43 minutes ago, Straw said:

As I think I said last turn, Striker seems to be the safest bet.

I disagree that he’s safe. As I’ve pointed out, he and Bard were the counterwagon to the village lynch of Kas; while it’s possible the wagons were v/v, which would probably implicate the inactives more than anyone else, it’s difficult for me to assume that Striker’s wagon didn’t have at least some Eliminators on it; in particular, Bard, the clinching vote on Stink (the only elected eliminator), and Wibble, another person who helped elect Stink, are both on Striker right now, and there is nobody opposing this except myself. Burnt, I’d switch to you right now, but that would only split the counterwagon to Striker because you can’t vote on yourself, and there’s no sign of Wonko, Coda or Peji as other voices to weigh in, even if some in that group (Coda specifically) may be evil >>

tl;dr there’s four Eliminators left who definitely should have elected somebody by now. The only possibilities I can think of are Striker/Bard/Wibble/semiactive or inactive, Striker/Bard/Straw/inactive or Wonko/Burnt/Peji/Bard, and given that the last possibility involves two people who elected a villager last turn, and the other two involve people on the counterwagon of that villager, I know where my vote is going. 

[Fifth Scholar]

There are a little under three hours left in the cycle. Please get all of your votes and actions in. This message brought to you by Elbereth GM Services, Inc., and the Ad Council.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Apologies for not posting earlier this cycle

Firstly-  very glad kas ended up being villager after straight up asking me to drop a vote on him in pms.

Secondly- thoughts on Kas' mega post in case striker happens to be evil. Which, I admit is becoming a legitimate concern  of mine given that if he's villager, its game( - village would have had 4 of their own nominated, leaving elims with a max of 3 of their own on the team). It really really bothers me that there's only one vote not on him. Perhaps the elims got unlucky and are full of inactives, but i suspect otherwise. If strikers good, then yay! woo! Celebrations! But if not. Then there be problem. would be very telling though! But then its also like, if striker was evil, why no hammer on his direction? Probably because the elims were probably either asleep, or had already voted. Additionally, Kas being nominated wouldn't be a huge loss to the elims since he a good chatty player. 
So kas was super suspicious of fifth. I admit after talking to kas in pms, I was quite suspicious too. If striker is evil, that'll shed good light on fifth, but I feel like regardless there'll still be a lot of uncertainty around them. I do acknowledge though that confirmed good doesn't mean confirmed right so we could've very well been very wrong about fifth, i guess time will tell? Given the arguing between fifth and striker, i get the impression that they are definitely highly likely not evil together so there's that.

So yeah. not many thoughts but thoughts never the less. 

Looks like strikers the one being nominated unless something drastic happens in the next hour heh. but yeah. Im worried that strikers going up too easy. waaay too easy.

This game is also weird in that theres what. 11 players left? But it's like there's only 6.