Long Game 61: A Radiant Light

[Elbereth]

“Then where do you suggest we start, Dedja?” Tintallë asked idly, toying with a pretty fan. “If we do not find the killers, they’ll kill us all anyway. Who would kill Ellarel, then? Her death is no use unless we make something of it.” 

[StrikerEZ]

Well. I’m 0-2 for being right with my suspicions so far. That’s unfortunate. 

@Coda Coda, do you have any thoughts about why the elims would choose to kill Elandera? They’re a pretty prominent player, and killing them removes the number of talkative players the elims could hide behind. 

[Sart]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

“Then where do you suggest we start, Dedja?” Tintallë asked idly, toying with a pretty fan. “If we do not find the killers, they’ll kill us all anyway. Who would kill Ellarel, then? Her death is no use unless we make something of it.” 

"If I might interject, I have a theory on why the Ghostbloods killed Ellarel. Simply put, they are trying to kill discussion. Most of our debate was centered on Ellarel and Hymnyes yesterday. By killing both candidates, they are trying to make that day's discussion meaningless. However, I think we can glean more from this. Suppose the Ghostbloods killed someone else last night. Naturally, suspicion would fall on the people who voted on Hymnyes, a confirmed Noble, rather than those who voted on Ellarel who would still be of unknown alignment. That should have pleased the Ghostbloods, as they could have framed Ellarel and made us kill one of our own. There was a risk though. Suspicion could have shifted to someone else who voted on Hymnyes. After all, Ellarel only voted on Hymnyes in self-defense at the last second. If there was a Ghostblood among those voting for Hymnyes, that could prove disastrous. My theory is that the Ghostbloods were trying to avoid that outcome. By eliminating Ellarel, they shifted blame away from the people voting on Hymnyes. That is where I would concentrate my investigation on."

[Amanuensis]

3 hours ago, Sart said:

"If I might interject, I have a theory on why the Ghostbloods killed Ellarel. Simply put, they are trying to kill discussion. Most of our debate was centered on Ellarel and Hymnyes yesterday. By killing both candidates, they are trying to make that day's discussion meaningless. However, I think we can glean more from this. Suppose the Ghostbloods killed someone else last night. Naturally, suspicion would fall on the people who voted on Hymnyes, a confirmed Noble, rather than those who voted on Ellarel who would still be of unknown alignment. That should have pleased the Ghostbloods, as they could have framed Ellarel and made us kill one of our own. There was a risk though. Suspicion could have shifted to someone else who voted on Hymnyes. After all, Ellarel only voted on Hymnyes in self-defense at the last second. If there was a Ghostblood among those voting for Hymnyes, that could prove disastrous. My theory is that the Ghostbloods were trying to avoid that outcome. By eliminating Ellarel, they shifted blame away from the people voting on Hymnyes. That is where I would concentrate my investigation on."

Hm. I'm not so sure I agree with the theory, or believe you believe it, but I'll try to follow the thought to my own logical conclusion.

This was the vote count from D1:

Quote

Vote Count:

• (4) Venture: Elandera, Rath, Fura, Drake
• (4) Elandera: Venture, Araris, Striker, Sart, Elbereth
• (1) Stink: HH, 
• (1) Elbereth: Coda, 

Knowing that Venture and Elandera are both village, that means eliminators didn't feel pressured to save one of themselves, meaning they'd probably have a more light-hearted or less serious perspective during the later phase of D1, or simply not care at all. HH's vote had little-to-no impact or drive behind it, for example, and as remarked on previously, originated using questionable justifications. I'm another good example in that I didn't vote at all despite being decently active. I worry that "concentrating your investigation" on Rath, Fura and Drake is a convenient set up to ignore teammates hiding in the rest of the crowd. Not to mention encouraging others not to look at yourself, since you were one of Elandera's voters.

If you're village, don't let this discourage from pursuing your theory. But I hope you understand if I'm a little skeptical.

ED1T:

Oh, right. That doesn't really address why I think Elandera was killed, and I think that can be simply explained by her Pain Knife. She proved she had it by removing a vote from herself D1. Getting a vote manipulation / role block out of village hands and into the eliminators is worth it alone, IMO.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Guest Coda]

Brightness Dejda thought about the situation, though she'd never trained in these arts. "The main problem is that the most active players are the one's I'm almost certain are of the Nobility. If one does not talk, we are unable to accuse them, and even if we do, it's a stab in the night, likely to hit our own. Of the people actively contributing to the conversation, I suspect Brightness Drella(Sart) mildly for her theory that we should concentrate on the voters for Brightness Hmynyes(Venture), since that allows several people to skate by unnoticed. This vote is subject to change once more discussion occurs, of course."

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Coda said:

Brightness Dejda thought about the situation, though she'd never trained in these arts. "The main problem is that the most active players are the one's I'm almost certain are of the Nobility. If one does not talk, we are unable to accuse them, and even if we do, it's a stab in the night, likely to hit our own. Of the people actively contributing to the conversation, I suspect Brightness Drella(Sart) mildly for her theory that we should concentrate on the voters for Brightness Hmynyes(Venture), since that allows several people to skate by unnoticed. This vote is subject to change once more discussion occurs, of course."

I'll follow this up with another vote on Sart, for the reasons presented in my last post.

• (1) Coda: StrikerEZ,
• (2) Sart: Coda, Amanuensis, 

[Elbereth]

I think Sart is village but wrong; killing Elandera did the opposite of killing discussion today. Aman's theory is much likelier. 

Striker, it's day 2 now. Care to vote more strongly than an obvious poke vote? 

Tintalle frowned. "Bo-ring! Come now, let's have more death! I've seen more exciting accounting ledgers."

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

I think Sart is village but wrong; killing Elandera did the opposite of killing discussion today. Aman's theory is much likelier. 

Striker, it's day 2 now. Care to vote more strongly than an obvious poke vote? 

Tintalle frowned. "Bo-ring! Come now, let's have more death! I've seen more exciting accounting ledgers."

Can you explain why you think Sart is village?

[Elbereth]

Not sure? I think his reasoning is off in a villagery way - it's not a strong basis / mostly gut, but I don't think an elim would bring up that theory? At least, it doesn't make me want to vote on him. 

[Araris Valerian]

In response to Sart, I think rather little suspicion tends to fall on players as a result of a D1 village lynch. I mean, it happens practically every game. Thus, I doubt the night kill was intended to divert discussion in that manner. A role kill makes more sense, although I will say that with the Heir mechanic, the Pain Knife will still be in circulation, so the elims either had different motivation or didn’t think about heiring.

Somebody was rude and roleblocked me last night. I’m not sure if that is useful information, but I’m just throwing it out there.

I’m going to vote on Hemalurgic Headshot. HH falls into the category mentioned by Aman, and the vote last cycle seems to me to be an attempt to look village without actually helping. I find that more suspicious than what Sart has done Sart, which is to come up with a convoluted theory that we disagree with. 

It would be nice to hear from @xinoehp512, @STINK, and @Straw as well.

[Elbereth]

IIRC, the first item goes to the killer and then any other items go to the Heir if an heir has been selected. So they did get the Pain Knife. 

[STINK]

Yeah I don't really got anything to really work with per se so I'm just straight chilling, you know?

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I think I understand why people are voting on Sart. I’m a little skeptical of voting on him myself, considering that Aman is the one leading the lynch on him, and I don’t wanna kill discussion by putting Sart at an obvious lead. I have to leave now, but I’ll probably move my vote to El later.

[Elbereth]

If it means you're voting on someone you actually want to lynch, I'll take it.  

[StrikerEZ]

1 hour ago, Elbereth said:

If it means you're voting on someone you actually want to lynch, I'll take it.  

Well, here you go: Coda Elbereth

[Elbereth]

Yay!

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Skitter, scamper; scritch, scratch. Peeking, hiding, watching, conniving. Squeak, Rat offered. The cremling gave no response.

 

Aman's thing with Elandera's Pain Knife seems legit. I had totally forgotten about the other items (I should probably look over the rules again). 12 players of the original 15 are unknown, and there are 2-3 Elims out there. About a 25% chance to select an Elim randomly. I don't have any real suspicions other than Araris, because he's voting on me, so it would be as good as a guess to cast a vote right now.

Straw and Xino have not said much at all. Perhaps they are lurking Elims? In general, there tends to be one inactive/less-active Elim, but that becomes more apparent in the late game. Who knows.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

I don't have any real suspicions other than Araris, because he's voting on me, so it would be as good as a guess to cast a vote right now.

I'm of the feeling that voting based on a guess is good if there there aren't already well-defined lynch options (or if you can express why the current lynch options are bad). I mean, the lynch options have to come from somewhere.

Also, I stand corrected about Elandera's Knife. Although there would be no way for the elims to know that Elandera had only one item, it would certainly give at least a chance of giving them the Knife.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

29 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm of the feeling that voting based on a guess is good if there there aren't already well-defined lynch options (or if you can express why the current lynch options are bad). I mean, the lynch options have to come from somewhere.

True, true. Considering the options, Straw is my guess. Being inactive, there isn't much to be lost in ways of discussion, though I'd love to hear something from her. Going back to 2-3 Elims, I reckon two of them are actively participating in discussion. One is probably less-active or flying under the radar. 

Striker and Elbereth are meaningless votes. I'm not quite getting the push behind Sart. He was suggesting a course of action D1, hardly a vilifying action.

[Elbereth]

My vote isn’t meaningless; it’s suspicion on Striker for taking the easy way out of a clear poke vote instead of something that could actually draw scrutiny. 

Also, gut negative read on that entire post, btw. 

[Sart]

Vote Count:
Sart (2): Coda, Amanuensis
StrikerEZ (1): Elbereth
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Araris Valerian
Elbereth (1): StrikerEZ
Straw (1): Hemalurgic Headshot

Tleir was somewhat worried that she might end up lynched, as she was the only person with two votes. In addition, Leiken (Amanuensis) had shot a hole in her theory. The Ghostbloods could have killed Ellarel (Elandera) for her Pain Knife, rather than to quell discussion. Still, she didn't want to abandon her theory. Rather, she wanted to focus on one specific person among those who lynched Hymnyes (Butt Ad Venture). Brightlord Ekard (Drake Marshall). There were three points against him. One was simply her gut. The man's tone just seemed off to her.

Second, he kept his vote on Hymnyes jokingly in retaliation. That seemed to go against the man's character. Finally, and most importantly, were the words of the dead.

Both Hymnyes and Ellarel suspected Ekard at one point. And yes, while being confirmed good, did not equal being confirmed right, where there is a dropped stone, there would be ripples. For these reasons, Tleir had decided to vote for Ekard.

[Elbereth]

 Thank you for reminding me! I’m putting “Confirmed good does not equal confirmed right” in my signature immediately. 

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

My vote isn’t meaningless; it’s suspicion on Striker for taking the easy way out of a clear poke vote instead of something that could actually draw scrutiny. 

Also, gut negative read on that entire post, btw. 

However, you phrased it like this:

19 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Striker, it's day 2 now. Care to vote more strongly than an obvious poke vote? 

You voted on him to get a reaction. It seemed to me that you were more trying to incite discussion than actually express suspicion.

[Elbereth]

When am I not doing that?  

[Straw]

It's really weird that the elims targeted Elandera. I'd like to see something from Xinoehp512.

2 hours ago, Elbereth said:

When am I not doing that?  

Also, El, I very much like your new playstyle.