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The Long Con gets one step closer to being confirmed.


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So the idea that T's boon/bane was specifically created to take out Odium (as espoused by @RShara, @Calderis, and many others, myself included) just got one more serious bit of evidence with this recent WoB from the Tel Aviv signing:

Quote

Kfirw

Did Taravangian meet the Nightwatcher? Or Cultivation?

Brandon Sanderson

Cultivation. Good question.

Tel Aviv Signing (Oct. 18, 2019)

It seemed pretty obvious with the nature of T's boon/bane that it most likely required direct shardic intervention, but this is confirmation that Cultivation herself gave T his vacillating states of extreme intelligence/callousness and extreme stupidity/emotional empathy.

It can be conjectured with near certainty from reading Oathbringer that the unfolding of Dalinar's boon/bane was specifically timed for effect. In Dalinar's case the memories arrived at key times to keep him moving along his path of Spiritual Growth. The fact that T has seen Cultivation herself and his bane/boon is most likely unfolding under the, at times, active guidance of Cultivation makes it far more likely, as Rshara likes to say, that T is a Plant, and that he and the Diagram are weapons specifically designed to take down Odium. What's incredibly interesting is that the Diagram has multiple layers of subterfuge, in a sense it exists to distract Odium from the true plan, while at the same time guiding key actors towards the desired end goal. So it is both smoke and mirrors and the true plan.

There are quite a few threads with the specifics of this theory, I'll update this OP with spoilered thread links later, I've got to get some work done. Just saw this WoB and was pretty excited about the mini confirmation of one of the most exciting theories on the Shard.

Exciting stuff!

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And, it being Cultivation directly makes this WoB just a little more conspicuous. 

Quote

LairdDuncan (paraphrased)

Is there a pattern to Taravangian's stupid/smart cycle, or is it actually random?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

His aides are convinced that it is random, but if you plotted it out, it's really a distribution curve that is only made to look random.

Pocatello signing (Dec. 9, 2013)

Not that it wasn't already. 

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I'm not sure how much control there is directly from Cultivation.

When talking to Dalinar, she says "It will do me good to have a part of you, even if you do become his." As much as she can have plans, there isn't a definitely endgame already laid out for Dr. T, since Odium has future-sight as well. I'm pretty sure that there is a WoB that hers is better than his, so maybe not.

Because of this, and the inherent danger of trying to predict the actions of one who can see the future (T), the Diagram seems more like a tactic than a piece of the puzzle. Like was mentioned by @hoiditthroughthegrapevine, maybe a distraction from the true plan. Plus I'm certain that Odium can immediately tell that T has been influenced by Cultivation at some point, and is therefore wary of him. Because Odium should have the same difficulty in predicting the exact actions of T that Cultivation has (since he has foreknowledge), he is a better distraction than a predictable element?

There is also the whole Odium/Cultivation relationship. They aren't actively in conflict like Ruin and Preservation were, but are more like cold war opponents. It's not even clear what Cultivation is trying to do. Her nature doesn't necessarily imply that she would want to save Roshar, and I wouldn't be surprised if she had a hand in Honor's shattering, just to end the cycle. Presumably she is interested in her own preservation, but beyond that, all we have seen her do introduce unpredictable elements to Odium's plan (Dalinar's ascension is partially her doing, and the Diagram might be that as well). 

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1 hour ago, Config2 said:

I'm not sure how much control there is directly from Cultivation.

When talking to Dalinar, she says "It will do me good to have a part of you, even if you do become his." As much as she can have plans, there isn't a definitely endgame already laid out for Dr. T, since Odium has future-sight as well. I'm pretty sure that there is a WoB that hers is better than his, so maybe not.

Because of this, and the inherent danger of trying to predict the actions of one who can see the future (T), the Diagram seems more like a tactic than a piece of the puzzle. Like was mentioned by @hoiditthroughthegrapevine, maybe a distraction from the true plan. Plus I'm certain that Odium can immediately tell that T has been influenced by Cultivation at some point, and is therefore wary of him. Because Odium should have the same difficulty in predicting the exact actions of T that Cultivation has (since he has foreknowledge), he is a better distraction than a predictable element?

There is also the whole Odium/Cultivation relationship. They aren't actively in conflict like Ruin and Preservation were, but are more like cold war opponents. It's not even clear what Cultivation is trying to do. Her nature doesn't necessarily imply that she would want to save Roshar, and I wouldn't be surprised if she had a hand in Honor's shattering, just to end the cycle. Presumably she is interested in her own preservation, but beyond that, all we have seen her do introduce unpredictable elements to Odium's plan (Dalinar's ascension is partially her doing, and the Diagram might be that as well). 

The only skepticism I have with Cultivation having a hand in the shattering of Honor is twofold. Odium notes to Dalinar that if he were to be freed he would immediately go after Cultivation. Honor and Cultivation were also fairly obviously involved in some form of a romantic relationship. Thus, it isn't uncommon to see Cultivation played as the Vengeful Lover, who is after Odium's metaphysical head.

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48 minutes ago, Wyndlerunner said:

The only skepticism I have with Cultivation having a hand in the shattering of Honor is twofold. Odium notes to Dalinar that if he were to be freed he would immediately go after Cultivation. Honor and Cultivation were also fairly obviously involved in some form of a romantic relationship. Thus, it isn't uncommon to see Cultivation played as the Vengeful Lover, who is after Odium's metaphysical head.

That, and Cultivation tried to help Honor. 

Quote

Seonid

If Cultivation and Honor were romantically involved, why did Cultivation not help Honor against Odium?

Brandon Sanderson

She did.

Idaho Falls Signing (Nov. 28, 2015)

 

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54 minutes ago, Wyndlerunner said:

The only skepticism I have with Cultivation having a hand in the shattering of Honor is twofold. Odium notes to Dalinar that if he were to be freed he would immediately go after Cultivation. Honor and Cultivation were also fairly obviously involved in some form of a romantic relationship. Thus, it isn't uncommon to see Cultivation played as the Vengeful Lover, who is after Odium's metaphysical head.

I definitely get this part, and wouldn't be surprised if that was all it was. But I also wouldn't be surprised if she played some part in his death, either as part of an even Longer Con (with or without Honor's knowledge that he had to die), or for the aforementioned conformance to her intent.

7 minutes ago, Calderis said:

That, and Cultivation tried to help Honor. 

This part I am not super clear about. Basically, how did they muck it up? It was two versus one pure power wise. We get a pretty much 1 to 1 mutually assured destruction between Preservation and Ruin (once both are weakened by locking Preservation's power in the well, and Ruin's Atium being burned). The only reason Leras didn't do it is because he was limited by his intent. I don't see Honor, who is shown through Kaladin to be capable of destruction, and Cultivation (destruction, at least partial, allows for growth), being limited in this respect.

Maybe they didn't want to risk themselves being hurt, but then they kinda suck. I mean, you take one for the team to destroy the pure essence of hatred right?

 

Hopefully this will be answered. 

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1 hour ago, Config2 said:

This part I am not super clear about. Basically, how did they muck it up? It was two versus one pure power wise. We get a pretty much 1 to 1 mutually assured destruction between Preservation and Ruin (once both are weakened by locking Preservation's power in the well, and Ruin's Atium being burned). The only reason Leras didn't do it is because he was limited by his intent. I don't see Honor, who is shown through Kaladin to be capable of destruction, and Cultivation (destruction, at least partial, allows for growth), being limited in this respect.

Maybe they didn't want to risk themselves being hurt, but then they kinda suck. I mean, you take one for the team to destroy the pure essence of hatred right?

 

Hopefully this will be answered. 

I don't doubt it will be answered. We've known for a long time that Odium sometimes has some sort of an edge in shardic combat. After all, he was able to splinter Dominion and Devotion. Here are some relevant WoBs.

Quote

Moridin997(paraphrased)

Did Bavadin in any way help Odium splinter Dominion and Devotion?

Brandon Sanderson(paraphrased)

Uhh...

Moridin997(paraphrased)

(sensing an incoming RAFO): In any way...

Brandon Sanderson(paraphrased)

Uhh... Yes... Yes, you could say that...

Lisbon signing (Nov. 7, 2016)

So Autonomy may have helped splinter them, but we don't know to what extent. Do note that Hoid attributes Skai and Aona's deaths to Odium alone though in his letter to Frost, so at the very least Bavadin's influence on the event was subtle enough that either a) Hoid didn't think it worth mentioning her contributions or b.) any impact she had was small enough that it isn't common knowledge.

Quote

Khyrindor

Odium seems to have a bad track record when it comes to killing Shards. He was wounded versus Ambition, and he's trapped on Roshar. Yet, he's credited in killing Devotion and Dominion. My question is: was Autonomy significantly involved and would Odium have been able to do it on his own and still be okay to--

Brandon Sanderson

RAFO. It is dangerous to attack a Shard with one Shard. Let's say that. And a wise Shard would try to avoid that confrontation unless there are specific reasons they think they would have an advantage.

Skyward Seattle signing (Nov. 10, 2018)

I'm not sure whether this means Odium thought he had an advantage facing Devotion and Dominion, or Honor and Cultivation. You can interpret it how you want.

My point is, Brandon has definitely thought this out, and it will eventually be addressed directly.

Edit: Oops. I meant to include this WoB too, even though it’s only semi relevant :D.

Quote

Does Odium actually present a real threat to Harmony, because he-- *interrupted*

Brandon Sanderson

So Harmony is vastly more powerful than Odium.

Questioner

Yeah. 

Brandon Sanderson

Elend was vastly more powerful than Vin. Who would win in a fight?

Questioner

Vin.

Brandon Sanderson

Okay, there's your answer.

 

Edited by ILuvHats
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What @ILuvHats wrote, but I want to add this WOB:

Quote

ericth

What is Odium's edge. Vin and Ati killed each other but Rayse has downed 3 shards and survived. Was it skill, ability, numbers or possibly un-dispersed power?

Brandon Sanderson

Some combination of the above.

Words of Radiance Los Angeles signing (March 5, 2014)

 

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6 hours ago, hoiditthroughthegrapevine said:

So the idea that T's boon/bane was specifically created to take out Odium (as espoused by @RShara, @Calderis, and many others, myself included) just got one more serious bit of evidence with this recent WoB from the Tel Aviv signing:

It seemed pretty obvious with the nature of T's boon/bane that it most likely required direct shardic intervention, but this is confirmation that Cultivation herself gave T his vacillating states of extreme intelligence/callousness and extreme stupidity/emotional empathy.

It can be conjectured with near certainty from reading Oathbringer that the unfolding of Dalinar's boon/bane was specifically timed for effect. In Dalinar's case the memories arrived at key times to keep him moving along his path of Spiritual Growth. The fact that T has seen Cultivation herself and his bane/boon is most likely unfolding under the, at times, active guidance of Cultivation makes it far more likely, as Rshara likes to say, that T is a Plant, and that he and the Diagram are weapons specifically designed to take down Odium. What's incredibly interesting is that the Diagram has multiple layers of subterfuge, in a sense it exists to distract Odium from the true plan, while at the same time guiding key actors towards the desired end goal. So it is both smoke and mirrors and the true plan.

There are quite a few threads with the specifics of this theory, I'll update this OP with spoilered thread links later, I've got to get some work done. Just saw this WoB and was pretty excited about the mini confirmation of one of the most exciting theories on the Shard.

Exciting stuff!

I saw that and yeah, I'm so happy we got that confirmed :D:D T is a plant 4ever <3

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10 hours ago, Config2 said:

But I also wouldn't be surprised if she played some part in his death, either as part of an even Longer Con (with or without Honor's knowledge that he had to die), or for the aforementioned conformance to her intent.

 It may very well be that the two of them indeed Had a longer Con planned out to take down odium for good. It might be even something that tanavast deemed honourable. From his point of view, they had good chances of winning against odium since

- there are two of them on roshar

-there intents allow them to destroy another shard unlike preservation.

- odium would have come for them eventually even if they had resisted his coming to roshar, I think. In fact, they might have resisted, and that is why odium managed to invest on braize instead. 

But, they also knew that odium is much more experienced at direct shardic fighting, so they chose to go for a war of attrition instead of outright battle. 

So, If she played some part in honors death, as suggested by @Config2 , then honor might even be in on it. He was weakened by this war and had started to loose his mental faculties and he might have become enough suffused with his shardic intent that he was finding it hard to act against his odium, after all Roshar belongs to Singers and his side was in the wrong being the invaders. 

So, may be chose to give up his life, and joined his CS to Stormfather and compelled him to find his successor, hoping that he might do what tanavast could not. 

Cultivation has been left behind to continue on their plans for their planned long con on odium. 

 

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@ILuvHats Your last WoB makes sense. It's definitely established that Brandon values skill over raw power.

That being said, we have the following timeline:

  1. Honor and Cultivation Settle on Roshar and chill with the Singers
  2. Odium is on Ashyn at some point afterwords
  3. Humans destroy Ashyn and travel to Roshar, with Odium
  4. Singers and Honor/Cultivation welcome humans
  5. Human invade from Shinovar (first desolation)
  6. Humans switch from Odium to Honor/Cultivation (somewhere all between 5 and 8)
  7. Singers switch to Odium (somewhere all between 5 and 8)
  8. Honor/Cultivation turn against Singers (somewhere all between 5 and 8)
  9. Continuous desolation
  10. Oathpact
  11. End of desolations
  12. Recreance
  13. Current Day

So, my question is how did Honor/Cultivation decide to welcome humans when they knew that Odium was with them? 

It makes me think that Odium may have "come in peace" as it were, and then sneak attacked Honor is such a way that weakened Honor permanently so that it couldn't be one on one between H and O. Then Cultivation feared attacking Odium, in case he disengaged and came to kill Honor. That left her trapped defending him. Then Odium sets up on Braize and begins a siege of Roshar; first by manipulating humans, and then the Singers when the humans switch to Honor. Then Honor and Cultivation devised a way to trap him on Braize. This maybe involved Cultivation leaving Honor to go set something up, and Odium kills Honor and "snaps back" to Braize when Cultivation completes her plan (although it leaves her too weakened to fight Odium directly). Honor then dies a slow death, and sets up the Oathpact to give Cultivation time to come up with a new plan.

I really doubt that it will come down to simple "Odium is a better knife fighter" type of stuff. I am almost certain that Odium somehow pitted Devotion and Dominion against each other at some point to weaken them.

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15 hours ago, Config2 said:

So, my question is how did Honor/Cultivation decide to welcome humans when they knew that Odium was with them? 

Because it's not as simple as "Odium was with them."

Quote

Hoidonalsium

What was the order of the Shards coming to Roshar and changing allegiances? Did humans come with Odium?

Brandon Sanderson

So... you're talking about on Roshar specifically? So, Odium had visited Roshar. The humans gave him more of an ear... The Dawnsingers would have considered him the god of the people who had come, but-- I mean, it wasn't like they necessarily brought him. He was capable of getting around before that. I mean, he did kinda come along with them, he was instrumental in what happened there.

Hoidonalsium

Okay, but he was separate, and after Honor and Cultivation had really settled there?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes, he was after Honor and Cultivation had settled.

Oathbringer Glasgow signing (Dec. 2, 2017)

The singers would have considered him their God... And perhaps to some of them he was in truth... 

But do you throw out a group of refugees because you disagree with some of their beliefs? Do you ignore people's suffering because they were at best manipulated by your enemy, or were at worst a willing tool? 

No matter how culpable they were in Ashyn, they're still a people who have lost everything. 

I agree this will never be as simple as "Odium is better in a fight" but is also not as simple as "humans are the bad guys who started the cycle of hate." it's rarely ever that simple. People aren't that simple. 

The Fused may have valid reason to hate humans of their time... Or they might not. We don't even know if the beliefs if the Fused were common at that time, or if they became common because a literal God took their side (great for recruitment, that). 

I'm sure when we actually learn if the beginning of all of this, we'll find there was plenty of blame to go around on both sides. Because most times, that's the way reality works. No one's hands are clean, and everyone paints themselves as the victim. 

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Because it's not as simple as "Odium was with them."

It is and it isn't. To look at your WoB:

Quote

 

Hoidonalsium

What was the order of the Shards coming to Roshar and changing allegiances? Did humans come with Odium?

Brandon Sanderson

So... you're talking about on Roshar specifically? So, Odium had visited Roshar. The humans gave him more of an ear... The Dawnsingers would have considered him the god of the people who had come, but-- I mean, it wasn't like they necessarily brought him. He was capable of getting around before that. I mean, he did kinda come along with them, he was instrumental in what happened there.

Hoidonalsium

Okay, but he was separate, and after Honor and Cultivation had really settled there?

Brandon Sanderson

Yes, he was after Honor and Cultivation had settled.

Oathbringer Glasgow signing (Dec. 2, 2017)

 

And people do very much throw out refugee's for their beliefs, even if they are just loosely connected with something. I do agree that Honor is probably above that though. When we listen to the Eila Steele, we get a sense that the Singers were taken by surprise when the humans invaded (we'll likely get more about whether they were from a trip to Shinovar). If I was Honor, I think I would have found it to be my duty to warn the Singers that the Humans could be tainted, and should be treated cautiously. At least for a time.

I think you're definitely right; there will be blame on both sides. I am really interested to see how Sanderson reconciles the two vs. one issue within the established rules he has set out.

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