Scadrial vs Roshar.

[RShara]

4 minutes ago, Quantus said:

A couple questions on that:  Allomancers as in Mistings or full Mistborn?  And was the context Elendel (as the WOB above), or was it instead LTR's empire, or the whole planet?  Each of those could have different ratio's.

16% fell to the mistsickness everywhere Elend and Vin recruited from. We don't know what percentages became what, other than the 1/16 that became atium mistings, because Elend only figured it out in the second to last battle, and we weren't given info on who became what.

However, Elend does state that he ended up with several thousand (presumably useful) Allomancers, and the metals he called for were iron, steel, pewter, and tin.

Edited October 16, 2019 by RShara

[Calderis]

@Pathfinder and this is one of those situations where the WoBs clearly conflict.

One metalborn for every couple thousand does not equal "virtually everyone would know a Coinshot" at maximum dilution of the genes. 

 

Edited October 16, 2019 by Calderis

[Quantus]

45 minutes ago, Calderis said:

@Pathfinder and this is one of those situations where the WoBs clearly conflict.

One metalborn for every couple thousand does not equal "virtually everyone would know a Coinshot" at maximum dilution of the genes. 

 

To be fair, the statement "virtually everyone would know a coinshot" sounds a lot more reasonable in the sort of extremely dense urban population of Elendel, as opposed to a statement about the overall average population.  

[Calderis]

3 minutes ago, Quantus said:

To be fair, the statement "virtually everyone would know a coinshot" sounds a lot more reasonable in the sort of extremely dense urban population of Elendel, as opposed to a statement about the overall average population.  

Luthadel is hardly low pop. 

1-2 million people in a city smaller than Elendel and it's roughly 5 mill.

@RShara made an awesome thread recently that you can see where and how the Elendel basin fits on the TFE map. 

And again. The genes in TFE are less diluted. 

[Quantus]

1 hour ago, Calderis said:

Luthadel is hardly low pop. 

1-2 million people in a city smaller than Elendel and it's roughly 5 mill.

@RShara made an awesome thread recently that you can see where and how the Elendel basin fits on the TFE map. 

And again. The genes in TFE are less diluted. 

That was my point, Elendel and Luthadel both (was actually swapping them in my mind) are both examples of abnormally high population densities, so it's easier to believe that the average person might cross paths with a Coinshot in such a place a lot more often than outside the major urban centers.  But I was really just trying to find a logic that would reconcile the conflicting information we have.  

[RShara]

1 minute ago, Quantus said:

That was my point, Elendel and Luthadel both (was actually swapping them in my mind) are both examples of abnormally high population densities, so it's easier to believe that the average person might cross paths with a Coinshot in such a place a lot more often than outside the major urban centers.  But I was really just trying to find a logic that would reconcile the conflicting information we have.  

Well as I said, the books always overrule WoBs. 16% and thousands (pewter, steel, iron, and tin) were with Elend in Fadrex city.

[Calderis]

1 minute ago, Quantus said:

That was my point, Elendel and Luthadel both (was actually swapping them in my mind) are both examples of abnormally high population densities, so it's easier to believe that the average person might cross paths with a Coinshot in such a place a lot more often than outside the major urban centers.  But I was really just trying to find a logic that would reconcile the conflicting information we have.  

I mean, fair enough, but I can't say that I've ever known a couple thousand people. Crossed paths sure. But "know" in my mind means you'd be able to say "yeah! I know *insert name here*" 

I can accept even acquaintances for that WoB. But shopping at the same restaurant and not really recognizing someone isn't knowing them. 

[Pathfinder]

1 hour ago, RShara said:

Well as I said, the books always overrule WoBs. 16% and thousands (pewter, steel, iron, and tin) were with Elend in Fadrex city.

And yet there are other WoB that say preservation changed it so it would be noticable to Elend. That 16 percent is  not how it was originally and not how it was after. So in this case, no book does not trump WoB because there was more going on than was apparent to the characters in the novel. Though sazed does comment on that in the book, so the book covers that too

[RShara]

Just now, Pathfinder said:

And yet there are other WoB that say preservation changed it so it would be noticable to Elend. That 16 percent is  not how it was originally and not how it was after. So in this case, no book does not trump WoB because there was more going on than was apparent to the characters in the novel. Though sazed does comment on that in the book, so the book covers that too

But we are talking about Era 1 Scadrial, so none of that is relevant.

[Pathfinder]

3 minutes ago, RShara said:

But we are talking about Era 1 Scadrial, so none of that is relevant.

Secret history page 284

 

“I needed a sign,” Fuzz whispered, stopping near Kelsier. “Something he couldn’t change. A sign of the weapon I’d buried. The boiling point of water, I think. Maybe its freezing point? But what if the units change over the years? I needed something that would be remembered always. Something they’ll immediately recognize.” He leaned in. “Sixteen.” “Six . . . teen?” Kelsier said. “Sixteen.” Fuzz grinned. “Clever, don’t you think?” “Because it means . . .” “The number of metals,” Fuzz said. “In Allomancy.” “There are ten. Eleven, if you count the one I discovered.” “No! No, no, that’s stupid. Sixteen. It’s the perfect number. They’ll see. They have to see.” Fuzz started pacing again, and his head returned—mostly—to its earlier state.

 

 

It is very relevant. It was changed only to send a message to elend. It wasnt that way normally and it isnt that way in elendel. So to say a unique circumstance to accomplish a goal is the rule brick is disingenuous 

[Calderis]

Meh. Brandon's said that Allomancers are slightly more common in Era 2 than Era 1,but also slightly weaker. 

He's also repeatedly said that allomancy isn't as rare as people think it is. I stand by my math with it being "somewhere in between. The 1.6% and the 16% (which was specifically for the Mists napped, which brought out higher than normal allomantic percentage and turned some people who were close to it, but not quite there into Allomancers). 

Even accounting for the fact that the missing metals would have had mistings, dropping the numbers, and that duralumin would be useless on its own (aluminum isn't a factor as Preservation had forced a swap of that for atium mistings, see Yomen [and this misting were actively "recruited as inquisitors, and the ones that weren't inquisitors could be brought to bear if TLR actually felt the opposition was a threat]) there's still a very much higher than perceived number of Allomancers. Not metalborn, Allomancers specifically. 

I suppose if we were to figure out the number of Terris, we could subtract them from the population and drop the total accordingly with the percentages, but I'm not going to put in the effort because I don't think it's going to make a difference. 

Because if you do the math, the 1 per every two thousand comes out to 50000 with a population of 100000000. Which works out to 0.05%

Thrre is absolutely no way that's accurate to what the Mists have been described as doing. At those numbers, Luthadel would have had a total of 10000 metalborn, out of 2 million people. Factoring for all the abilities that would never be found due to unknown metals, and how much the majority of them would be on the nobility, you wouldn't have a functioning allomantic underground in which the crew ran storming teams if Allomancers. Clubs had rotating copper clouds twentyfour hours a day. Breeze had teams of so others and rioters. Ham ran muscle and security with teams of thugs. And this was apparently not unique to the crew. 

The numbers just don't add up. 

[Quantus]

1 hour ago, Calderis said:

I mean, fair enough, but I can't say that I've ever known a couple thousand people. Crossed paths sure. But "know" in my mind means you'd be able to say "yeah! I know *insert name here*" 

I can accept even acquaintances for that WoB. But shopping at the same restaurant and not really recognizing someone isn't knowing them. 

To be honest neither have I, but Im anti-social and have always lived in relatively rural areas. I mean, my graduating class was only 130 but my old roomate's was over 3,000. I always got the impression that denser cities forced more interaction.   I was setting the bar more along the lines of most people being able to say they'd met a Coinshot in some capacity, but that could be as low as having one live in the neighborhood and buy from your booth in the market or some such.  In that sense one coinshot per 1,000 people isnt all that unreasonable, they could work in one boroughs and live in an other and make those numbers

[RShara]

54 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

Secret history page 284

 

“I needed a sign,” Fuzz whispered, stopping near Kelsier. “Something he couldn’t change. A sign of the weapon I’d buried. The boiling point of water, I think. Maybe its freezing point? But what if the units change over the years? I needed something that would be remembered always. Something they’ll immediately recognize.” He leaned in. “Sixteen.” “Six . . . teen?” Kelsier said. “Sixteen.” Fuzz grinned. “Clever, don’t you think?” “Because it means . . .” “The number of metals,” Fuzz said. “In Allomancy.” “There are ten. Eleven, if you count the one I discovered.” “No! No, no, that’s stupid. Sixteen. It’s the perfect number. They’ll see. They have to see.” Fuzz started pacing again, and his head returned—mostly—to its earlier state.

 

 

It is very relevant. It was changed only to send a message to elend. It wasnt that way normally and it isnt that way in elendel. So to say a unique circumstance to accomplish a goal is the rule brick is disingenuous 

Uh what?  By the time Elend was around, there wasn't enough left of Leras to make that sort of change. And if it had been that short term, he wouldn't have worried about the units changing. Over years. For always. It was like that for a long time and only maybe changed after Sazed Ascended.

Again, I never said it was like that for Elendel. But it was like that for Era 1. Which is the time period for this scenario.

Edited October 17, 2019 by RShara

[+Oltux72]

9 hours ago, RShara said:

Uh what?  By the time Elend was around, there wasn't enough left of Leras to make that sort of change. And if it had been that short term, he wouldn't have worried about the units changing. Over years. For always. It was like that for a long time and only maybe changed after Sazed Ascended.

Again, I never said it was like that for Elendel. But it was like that for Era 1. Which is the time period for this scenario.

No. It was for everybody exposed to the mists at that specific time. And Leras is not thinking clearly at that time anymore. 16% is not a set number. It depends on the number base. We count by base ten. Apparently so does Scadrial. But this is not universal. The really telling data point they noticed was the absolutely fixed ratio per incident. The number of afflicted people did not follow a normal distribution. Any constant number would have done the job.

[Pathfinder]

12 hours ago, Calderis said:

Meh. Brandon's said that Allomancers are slightly more common in Era 2 than Era 1,but also slightly weaker. 

He's also repeatedly said that allomancy isn't as rare as people think it is. I stand by my math with it being "somewhere in between. The 1.6% and the 16% (which was specifically for the Mists napped, which brought out higher than normal allomantic percentage and turned some people who were close to it, but not quite there into Allomancers). 

Even accounting for the fact that the missing metals would have had mistings, dropping the numbers, and that duralumin would be useless on its own (aluminum isn't a factor as Preservation had forced a swap of that for atium mistings, see Yomen [and this misting were actively "recruited as inquisitors, and the ones that weren't inquisitors could be brought to bear if TLR actually felt the opposition was a threat]) there's still a very much higher than perceived number of Allomancers. Not metalborn, Allomancers specifically. 

I suppose if we were to figure out the number of Terris, we could subtract them from the population and drop the total accordingly with the percentages, but I'm not going to put in the effort because I don't think it's going to make a difference. 

Because if you do the math, the 1 per every two thousand comes out to 50000 with a population of 100000000. Which works out to 0.05%

Thrre is absolutely no way that's accurate to what the Mists have been described as doing. At those numbers, Luthadel would have had a total of 10000 metalborn, out of 2 million people. Factoring for all the abilities that would never be found due to unknown metals, and how much the majority of them would be on the nobility, you wouldn't have a functioning allomantic underground in which the crew ran storming teams if Allomancers. Clubs had rotating copper clouds twentyfour hours a day. Breeze had teams of so others and rioters. Ham ran muscle and security with teams of thugs. And this was apparently not unique to the crew. 

The numbers just don't add up. 

I am sorry but I am starting to get really frustrated by you and Rshara picking which WoB you deem canon or not. This is the third time now I have referenced WoB that are recent, clear, and unmuddled, and I get told because it does not make sense to you or Rshara it does not count? The metalborn WoB is 3 years old. It is not a brief one sentence that could be taken out of context. It is multi lined, multi response, with the answer repeated. It is in line with the books. In the original trilogy we meet four mistborn. In all of the empire we only meet four. Five if you count the guy who trained Kelsier. In a population as stated in the 100s of millions, we meet five. (edit: six because of the mistborn in the kill squad that Straff sent after Vin. I would not want to be inaccurate and forget anyone. That makes .000006%). It is repeatedly stated throughout both Era novels that metalborn are rare. We have multiple WoB stating metalborn are rare. We have a WoB with Sanderson saying he has done the calculations and it is somewhere around one in a couple of thousand. The population of New York City (counting Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, Bronx and Staten Island) is 8.6 million as of 2017. People who identify as transgender make up 1.2 to 6.8 percent. A highschool teacher I had has come out as transgender about 5 years ago. A friend of mine who got married, and had a child about 3 years ago came out as transgender and transitioned. I am sure in a commute from Queens to Manhattan I will run into other transgenders and not even realize it. Mistborn are super rare. Coinshots are common. Sanderson said you may not be one, but it is common to know someone, or of someone. The closest place I would say to Elendel in population density would be New York City or a similar metropolitan area. I do not know where you or Rshara live, but those numbers are accurate to me based on that demographic. The only time we see a plethora of metalborn is when the job calls for it. That Kelsier's crew specifically recruits mistings. That Wax's uncle specifically seeks metalborn to hire. Of the police force Wax works with, how many are metalborn? None. Of the parties that are raided by the Vanishers, specifically looking for people that may have allomancy, how many are grabbed? One? Maybe two? So you show me where in the books you see a group of young coinshots on the street shooting a metal ball back and forth as a game that metal born are so prevalent. You show me where in the books you see steel ferrings speeding all over the city because it is so prevalent. In my life I am sure I will run into an engineer. If I work in an engineering division of a company, I am going to see a ton of engineers. But that does not mean there is a plethora of them throughout every level of our world. 

So to me the WoB is very explicit and makes perfect sense with the world we are presented with. You want to make your own canon because it does not make sense to you? Feel free, but until such time as Brandon turns around and says "hey guys, remember that thing I said? I was totally wrong. Calderis and Rshara were right after all." I will continue to operate on the WoB that states .05 percent of the population is metal born, and that some of the orders of the knights radiant reach the low thousands. Which if we say low thousands is three thousands, and claim of ten orders, only three reach those heights, you still get the radiants numbering 9000, not counting the 1 to 100s of the other orders. 

WoB below (again for one) for reference

 

VindicationKnight

Do you mind telling us what the average number of Knights for a Knight Radiant Order were (barring Bondmiths) and possibly how close the different orders worked together?

Brandon Sanderson

It varied very widely, and depended on many factors. At their highest, some orders had members in the low thousands.

/r/books AMA 2015 (June 24, 2015)

 

 

 

Questioner

So what is the, like, actual density of metalborns born in Elendel?

Brandon Sanderson

Oh boy, I have this in my notes somewhere. Um...

Questioner

*inaudible* I guess?

Brandon Sanderson

Roughly. All metalborn? One out of every couple thousands. Little more common than you would probably think, based on... I don't know. People usually assume they're a little more rare than they are. But, yeah...

Questioner

Yeah. It just-- As I was reading I kept finding people saying, "Oh yeah, it's so rare. It's so insanely rare." I was like, "I feel like it's not that rare," like...

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, but still. One every couple thousand. Like, you're going to know somebody, but the chances of you actually being one are pretty rare.

Calamity release party (Feb. 16, 2016)

 

11 hours ago, RShara said:

Uh what?  By the time Elend was around, there wasn't enough left of Leras to make that sort of change. And if it had been that short term, he wouldn't have worried about the units changing. Over years. For always. It was like that for a long time and only maybe changed after Sazed Ascended.

Again, I never said it was like that for Elendel. But it was like that for Era 1. Which is the time period for this scenario.

The mist sickness, as Oltux72 says below, is a unique circumstance that occurred when the mist covered the land and was operating in a way it had not done for hundreds of years, to send a message. You said yourself book trumps WoB. I quote the book that supports it, but that is not canon either? So what trumps it now? This is extremely frustrating when I go through the trouble of researching and presenting quotes and WoB, and get told they do not count because they do not agree with what you are saying. 

 

2 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

No. It was for everybody exposed to the mists at that specific time. And Leras is not thinking clearly at that time anymore. 16% is not a set number. It depends on the number base. We count by base ten. Apparently so does Scadrial. But this is not universal. The really telling data point they noticed was the absolutely fixed ratio per incident. The number of afflicted people did not follow a normal distribution. Any constant number would have done the job.

Thank you. 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Pathfinder

[Calderis]

13 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

I am sorry but I am starting to get really frustrated by you and Rshara picking which WoB you deem canon or not. This is the third time now I have referenced WoB that are recent, clear, and unmuddled, and I get told because it does not make sense to you or Rshara it does not count? 

And I'm sorry, but I think you're taking this personally. 

WoBs conflict frequently. Brandon changes his mind. Things shift. Which is why until something is in a book it isn't Canon. We build models based off of WoBs because they're a great resource, but they frequently don't pan out. 

I'm saying I disagree with a WoB because I don't think the numbers fit. I am not an authority. You are free to disagree. 

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

In the original trilogy we meet four mistborn. In all of the empire we only meet four. Five if you the guy who trained Kelsier. In a population as stated in the 100s of millions, we meet five. It is repeatedly stated throughout both Era novels that metalborn are rare. We have multiple WoB stating metalborn are rare. We have a WoB with Sanderson saying he has done the calculations and it is somewhere around one in a couple of thousand.

When I did the math, I specifically mentioned I threw out arbitrary numbers just to run numbers. This is especially true for Mistborn. We have absolutely nothing that tells us the rate of Mistborn to misting, and that is absolutely variable and dependent on strength. There are none in Era 2. There were a few in Era 1. At first in TFE, there were only Mistborn and far fewer Allomancers as a whole. The further you get from lerasium, the lower the percentage of Mistborn and the higher number of Allomancers until you reach a dilution point that mistings start to fall off (which the Elendel Basin is incapable of in isolation). 

I ran that number on a guess at 0.1% of all metalborn. It could be 0.00001% for all I know. It was a random guess, partially because the specifics of our time frame in the OP is "The Final Empire" which is a thousand year window. 

27 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

The population of New York City (counting Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, Bronx and Staten Island) is 8.6 million as of 2017. People who identify as transgender make up 1.2 to 6.8 percent. A highschool teacher I had has come out as transgender about 5 years ago. A friend of mine who got married, and had a child about 3 years ago came out as transgender and transitioned. I am sure in a commute from Queens to Manhattan I will run into other transgenders and not even realize it. Mistborn are super rare. Coinshots are common. Sanderson said you may not be one, but it is common to know someone, or of someone. The closest place I would say to Elendel in population density would be New York City or a similar metropolitan area. I do not know where you or Rshara live, but those numbers are accurate to me based on that demographic

Which is great. I live in the Portland metro area. Not as dense, but not small either. 

Let's assume your on the low end there at the 1.2% 

That's still significantly higher the Coinshots specifically, if the rate of total metalborn of all types is 0.05% then Coinshots, at 1/16 of that, which discounts the existence of Feruchemy completely, would be 0.00003215? Making them "more common" doesn't fit that discription at all.

I'm not attempting to offend you. Or discount your opinion. But I disagree. This isn't the first time that I've disagreed with a WoB and it won't be the last time. If we're given hard numbers in a book, I won't dispute that. If the evidence in the book fits the WoBs great. If there's repeated conflict in WoBs and we don't have in book numbers? Things get a lot more iffy. 

In other cases, there are WoBs that I know perfectly well that Brandon has made up his mind that I disagree with, and I have to deal with it and will argue for those mechanics or numbers or whatever because that's just how it is. 

That said. It was never personal, and I'm sorry it's been taken that way. Sorry for any confusion or hurt feelings here. I'll see myself out. 

[RShara]

3 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

No. It was for everybody exposed to the mists at that specific time. And Leras is not thinking clearly at that time anymore. 16% is not a set number. It depends on the number base. We count by base ten. Apparently so does Scadrial. But this is not universal. The really telling data point they noticed was the absolutely fixed ratio per incident. The number of afflicted people did not follow a normal distribution. Any constant number would have done the job.

I really have no idea what you're saying here in regards to the argument. Why would Leras worry about units shifting if he only changed it for a short time?

1 hour ago, Pathfinder said:

I am sorry but I am starting to get really frustrated by you and Rshara picking which WoB you deem canon or not. This is the third time now I have referenced WoB that are recent, clear, and unmuddled, and I get told because it does not make sense to you or Rshara it does not count?

No, it's not because we don't agree with them that they don't count. It's because the book is canon and WoBs are only semi canon. Until it's stated or shown in a book, it's not solid canon. Brandon  has said this numerous times. The books will overrule when there's a conflict. And the books clearly state that 16% of the population became Allomancers during Era 1.

Edited October 17, 2019 by RShara

[+Oltux72]

28 minutes ago, RShara said:

I really have no idea what you're saying here in regards to the argument. Why would Leras worry about units shifting if he only changed it for a short time?

Because he was at that point crazy. And obsessed with finding a constant number. Occupational hazard. It makes sense given his personality and shard, but it is still false. You cannot send a signal with a number a recipient does not know.
The signal was in the sharpness of the peak. If the mists had acted like an infection or a poison, you would still get an average number of casualties, who fall ill. Yet it would be an average. Plotting the actual cases you would get the classical bell curve. But they got a sharp peak. That would be the same whatever sensible number Leras had picked. It just tells us that Leras speaks a language that uses a number system based on ten.

[RShara]

Just now, Oltux72 said:

Because he was at that point crazy. And obsessed with finding a constant number. Occupational hazard. It makes sense given his personality and shard, but it is still false. You cannot send a signal with a number a recipient does not know.
The signal was in the sharpness of the peak. If the mists had acted like an infection or a poison, you would still get an average number of casualties, who fall ill. Yet it would be an average. Plotting the actual cases you would get the classical bell curve. But they got a sharp peak. That would be the same whatever sensible number Leras had picked. It just tells us that Leras speaks a language that uses a number system based on ten.

I'm still confused as to how it's relevant to how long 16% of people exposed to the mist became Allomancers?

[+Oltux72]

4 minutes ago, RShara said:

I'm still confused as to how it's relevant to how long 16% of people exposed to the mist became Allomancers?

How long? For their life time. The 16% tell us nothing about the population of Scadrial. The allomancy came from the Mist only, or you would get a bell curve. They allow no conclusion for Scadrial during TLR. After that it depends on how much they breed true. Unknown.

[RShara]

Just now, Oltux72 said:

How long? For their life time. The 16% tell us nothing about the population of Scadrial. The allomancy came from the Mist only, or you would get a bell curve. They allow no conclusion for Scadrial during TLR. After that it depends on how much they breed true. Unknown.

...I still have no idea what you're saying. I'm sorry. I think I'm just going to drop this whole thing at this point, though, because I think we're all talking past each other, and people are getting mad

[Pathfinder]

3 hours ago, Calderis said:

And I'm sorry, but I think you're taking this personally. 

WoBs conflict frequently. Brandon changes his mind. Things shift. Which is why until something is in a book it isn't Canon. We build models based off of WoBs because they're a great resource, but they frequently don't pan out. 

Thing is there is no other WoB conflicting with this. The books do support it. 

Quote

I'm saying I disagree with a WoB because I don't think the numbers fit. I am not an authority. You are free to disagree. 

We can disagree, but in a discussion making points going off what the numbers mentioned in this thread, you are saying a result will occur because of numbers you personally have come up with that contradict what the author himself says. 

Quote

When I did the math, I specifically mentioned I threw out arbitrary numbers just to run numbers. This is especially true for Mistborn. We have absolutely nothing that tells us the rate of Mistborn to misting, and that is absolutely variable and dependent on strength. There are none in Era 2. There were a few in Era 1. At first in TFE, there were only Mistborn and far fewer Allomancers as a whole. The further you get from lerasium, the lower the percentage of Mistborn and the higher number of Allomancers until you reach a dilution point that mistings start to fall off (which the Elendel Basin is incapable of in isolation). 

We are attempting to use arbitrary numbers to illustrate concrete pieces of information we have. I not see any WoB that contradict the WoB I have posted. I have not seen any character in the books state something that contradicts the WoB I have posted. The WoB is recent and clear, so it is not being misunderstood, and it is not trumped by a recent WoB that says otherwise. In this situation that WoB stands on its own. 

Quote

I ran that number on a guess at 0.1% of all metalborn. It could be 0.00001% for all I know. It was a random guess, partially because the specifics of our time frame in the OP is "The Final Empire" which is a thousand year window. 

Which is great. I live in the Portland metro area. Not as dense, but not small either. 

Let's assume your on the low end there at the 1.2% 

That's still significantly higher the Coinshots specifically, if the rate of total metalborn of all types is 0.05% then Coinshots, at 1/16 of that, which discounts the existence of Feruchemy completely, would be 0.00003215? Making them "more common" doesn't fit that discription at all.

Coinshots are the most common of the existent metalborn. You could have 10 people, and 6 of those people have brown eyes, and still say brown eyes is the most common. That does not translate to common in terms of the entire population. 

Quote

I'm not attempting to offend you. Or discount your opinion. But I disagree. This isn't the first time that I've disagreed with a WoB and it won't be the last time. If we're given hard numbers in a book, I won't dispute that. If the evidence in the book fits the WoBs great. If there's repeated conflict in WoBs and we don't have in book numbers? Things get a lot more iffy. 

The thing I take issue here, is you are going by your impression of the characters interacting with metalborn, and taking that to mean there are far more than is stated. Like I said earlier, if you put yourself in a situation that is going to have primarily individuals of a certain type, then you are going to primarily see individuals of a certain type. That does not include the greater population. Take Roshar for instance (which also per WoB, has a larger population than Scadrial). A larger number of bonded radiants are Kholin. Does that mean all Kholins and only Kholins bond spren? No. It means they are in a location where (as per WoB) there is a greater than usual concentration of radiant spren to bond, and spren tend to hang out by "important" individuals, coupled with if you are honorable, it is a good chance your family is "honorable". It also does not mean that radiant spren are super prevalent everywhere and all royalty are bonding. All it means is if you look where there tends to be large groups of a certain type, then you are going to see large amounts of a certain type. That does not mean the trend carries out to the entire population.

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In other cases, there are WoBs that I know perfectly well that Brandon has made up his mind that I disagree with, and I have to deal with it and will argue for those mechanics or numbers or whatever because that's just how it is. 

To me this is one of those situations. I have 7 more WoB that I will be responding to Rshara regarding showing that the 1/16th was an isolated situation and is not how it normally functions by large. 

2 hours ago, RShara said:

I really have no idea what you're saying here in regards to the argument. Why would Leras worry about units shifting if he only changed it for a short time?

No, it's not because we don't agree with them that they don't count. It's because the book is canon and WoBs are only semi canon. Until it's stated or shown in a book, it's not solid canon. Brandon  has said this numerous times. The books will overrule when there's a conflict. And the books clearly state that 16% of the population became Allomancers during Era 1.

Secret History clearly states that Preservation changed it to send a message. It clearly states it is unique and does not normally function that way. The mist sickness only pops up when the well is filling and Ruin's prison needs to be reinforced. The 1/16th ratio is a new thing to send a message. Preservation makes new allomancers. 1/16th is not the normal function. It is changed with intention during that time in order to accomplish a goal. Every other time it does not work that way, which is present in Era 1, all the way till the mists start coming during the day and killing people. I have posted 7 WoB and annotations. It says it in the books. I really do not see how this can still be disputed baring the author literally popping in randomly and saying "hey guys, all this information is wrong. Totally ignore me and my books"

 

 

(first WoB. The mists were changed. That is why the prior times Demoux went out into the mists did not count for being inoculated. So the mists were different during the 1/16 mist sickness)

Brandon Sanderson

Chapter Seventeen

The Mists Strike Down Demoux

I knew we needed a meaningful casualty from the mistsickness, somebody who we knew and cared about. I don't know if readers care about Demoux, but he's the only one among the crew who could be susceptible to the mists. My intention is that striking him down here impacts the reader directly, making the danger of the mists more concrete.

I maintain a paranoid worry that somewhere in this book, or the previous one, Demoux went out into the mists and should have fallen sick then. I can't think of an instance, and I do believe I could reasonably make this the first time he's exposed to them. But still I worry that I've missed something. I'm sure my loyal—and very meticulous—fans will let me know if I did.

(Note that Demoux would have had to go out in the mists after the time when they started killing people. This happened while Vin approached the Well of Ascension—by way of trivia, the mists changed the very moment the full power of the Well returned to be drawn again. Anyway, any times Demoux went into the mists before then would not have inoculated him.)

The Hero of Ages Annotations (Aug. 18, 2009)

 

 

 

(Another WoB. It is a statistical anomaly. If it was a normal occurrence, then why would people notice it? It would defeat the purpose of trying to call Elend's and Vin's attention to it

Brandon Sanderson

The Number Sixteen

Demoux's problems here are intended to give me another means of reminding the reader of the statistical anomaly found in the numbers of people who fall sick to the mist. As I wrote the draft, I'm glad I was forced to keep Demoux alive, as doing so gave me a character who was intimately connected with the problems of the mists and the things they were inflicting on people.

The Hero of Ages Annotations (Nov. 3, 2009)

 

 

(WoB, 1/16th of everyone is not necessarily capable of becoming allomancers. I assume the next response will be "well he is being coy regarding feruchemists!". Which is why I have the prior WoBs, and the further ones below)

Questioner

Is 1/16th of everyone on Scadrial capable of becoming Allomancers?

Brandon Sanderson

Are 1/16th capable--

Questioner

Of everyone.

Brandon Sanderson

--is that the question? Not necessarily.

Bands of Mourning release party (Jan. 25, 2016)

 

 

 

(WoB stating that Preservation set it up that way, on purpose to catch attention. He devised it specifically to get people to notice. 

wicktacular

At the end of the first Mistborn trilogy it's really significant that 1/16th of the soldiers who got really sick are now atium Mistings.

Brandon Sanderson

Yes.

Brandon Sanderson

Yes. Sixteen that he-- when Preservation set that all up. He, number one, was not all there. But he was trying to create sixteen as a symbol to say, "Hey, catch this. I've given you a clue-- uh-- help." And so it was devised specifically for that. "*inaudible* Something's going on here."

Arcanum Unbounded Hoboken signing (Dec. 3, 2016)

 

 

(WoB Preservation picked the number on purpose so that people would realize they were being made into Allomancers)

Melhay

Of the people that were sick for the 16 days in comparison to just the one day, it is mentioned that they would be able to burn more precious metals (atium). Could it also be possible they are/were Mistborn—with the ability to burn all 16 metals?

Brandon Sanderson

Well, what was going on here was a clue established and set by Leras before he died. He wanted something to indicate—should he be unable to inform mankind—that what was happening wasn't natural, but instead something intentional. He worried that men wouldn't be able to realize they were being made into Allomancers.

And so, the mist was set to do something very specific, as has to do with the interaction between the human soul, Allomancy, and the sixteen metals.

Each of the 'Shardworlds' I've written in (Mistborn, Elantris, Warbreaker, Way of Kings) exists with the same cosmology. All things exist on three realms—the spiritual, the cognitive, and the physical. What's going on here is an interaction between the three realms. I don't want to bore you with my made up philosophy, but I do have a cohesive metaphysical reasoning for how my worlds and magic works. And there is a single plane of existence—called Shadesmar, the Cognative Realm—which connects them all.

You will never need to know any of this to read and enjoy my books, but there is an overarching story behind all of them, going on in the background. Adonalsium, Hoid, the origin of Ati, Leras, the Dor, and the Voice (from Warbreaker) are all tied up in this.

Barnes and Noble Book Club Q&A (July 8, 2009)

 

 

(WoB, stating that the 16 was the number put in intentionally with the mistsickness to garner attention)

Brandon Sanderson

The Number Sixteen

I worry that having Vin make this connection is one of the more forced events in the book. She'd just finished telling everyone that she wasn't a scholar, and now she discovers a pattern of numbers hidden in the statistics of how people fall sick? My original intention for this was to have her be in a mind-set where she was looking for natural rules—because of her earlier discussion of Ruin and his rules—which then allowed her to see this pattern.

Rereading it, I'm not 100% pleased with it, but it's too late to make a change. I'd probably rewrite it so that Noorden or Elend make the connection, then let Vin connect that to what she's been thinking about. That would have been a much more natural progression.

Note that here, Vin misunderstands what these numbers mean. She's looking for rules that bind Ruin. What she finds is not that, but instead a clue left by Preservation. Numbers are understandable to people regardless of language, and so Preservation decided to leave some clues for people to discover that would hopefully lead them to follow the plans he'd set in motion. In my prewriting, I'd intended there to be more hard facts to be discovered in the workings of the universe—numbers hidden in mathematical statistics that said rational things, like the boiling point of water or the like. All as a means of Preservation hinting to humankind that there was a plan for them.

In the end, this didn't work out. I decided it would be overly complicated and that it would just be too technical to work in this particular novel. The only remnant of that plot arc became the number sixteen that Preservation embedded into the way the mistsickness works, intending it to give a clue about what the mists are doing to people. "You now are Allomancers!" is what this was supposed to scream. Unfortunately, the Lord Ruler's obfuscation of Allomancy—and the number of metals in it—left this clue to fall flat.

The Hero of Ages Annotations (Sept. 3, 2009)

 

 

 

(WoB stating that the 16 was a recent occurrence because since the Lord Ruler died, and would be unable to take up the power again, he needed a way to reach Vin and Elend to let them know he has a plan and to follow it. The Well filled in the past, but the 16 is new)

Andrew The Great (paraphrased)

Why did the mist sickness only happen after the Lord Ruler's Death?

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

It didn't. It just happened on a much smaller scale. As you remember, the Lord Ruler basically =stagnation. Because it seemed the Lord Ruler would be taking the power again (as was intended, and as apparently had been done many times before), and because of the extreme stability of the Final Empire, Preservation (though it really only had a shadow of it's mind left) wasn't as freaked out. After the LR died, Preservation began to attempt to create more allomancers for the reasons mentioned in question 7. It also left clues, such as the number 16 everywhere, so that people would know it was preservation doing it, and not just random chance, or ruin. Turns out that that didn't work so well.

Idaho Falls Signing (June 20, 2009)

 

 

So 7 annotations/WoB all saying the same exact thing that Secret History (a book!) stated. The 1/16th is not how it normally works. 

[Karger]

4 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Questioner

Yeah. It just-- As I was reading I kept finding people saying, "Oh yeah, it's so rare. It's so insanely rare." I was like, "I feel like it's not that rare," like...

Brandon Sanderson

Yeah, but still. One every couple thousand. Like, you're going to know somebody, but the chances of you actually being one are pretty rare.

To clear this up a bit Brandon said YOU ARE GOING TO KNOW SOMEBODY he did NOT say THEY ARE GOING TO KNOW YOU.  Remember that politician that ran on his smoker status?  Everyone probably encounters a known metalborn whose name they know but this does not indicate that they are super common.

[+Oltux72]

3 hours ago, Calderis said:

When I did the math, I specifically mentioned I threw out arbitrary numbers just to run numbers. This is especially true for Mistborn. We have absolutely nothing that tells us the rate of Mistborn to misting, and that is absolutely variable and dependent on strength.

That is not entirely true. We have Zane Venture. He was bred intentionally. Straff Venture was many things, but not an idiot. There was a realistic chance of success. That breeding programm was dangerous. In theory it was a capital crime. Hence the ratio must be somewhere between roughly 1:50 to 1:500.

[Calderis]

@Pathfinder and I will agree to disagree.

Yes, the radiants are more common in certain areas. But currently, due to Connection issues, that means being a Kholin does make you more likely to be a Radiant, especially when you consider that the number of radiants is artificially limited by the number of spren. "entire populations were wiped out" in the recreance. The Inkspren post their culture because all that were left were the equivalent of children. 

That is not a limit that metalborn suffer from. Even at the numbers your saying, that's 50000 metalborn to a few thousand radiants... Plus the lord ruler. Plus Koloss. It's not going to be an easy fight. 

But the rest of your argument on what we see in the books and how many people we see in only certain roles... 

In Era 1, whether you were noble or skaa, keeping you abilities secret was part of life. Just because someone wasn't involved in the criminal underground didn't make them not an Allomancer. Just because someone wasn't named as an Allomancer in noble society doesn't mean they weren't one. We see surprise reveals on a character who's been something else and manipulating people, or hiding a combat talent multiple times. 

In Era 2, there are mistings like Marasi who view their abilities as shameful and needing to be hidden. Aluminum and duralumin mistings have the derogatory moniker of gnats for that very reason. 

As to the people on the street that they interact with being Allomancers, we hear about Coinshots working as couriers and scours for the coach company. There's so others working the parlors and drumming up business illegally. There's politicians using their power to drum up support like Karger just mentioned. There's Irich with the Set, who seems to have been hired more for his scientific work than the fact that he's a leecher. There's every person that the set used to make a spike. Allomancers use their abilities to pull an advantage and make a name for themselves and pull ahead of people in a ridiculously harsh environment of industrial labor, like Jak and Handerwym, or Nikki. The people left to work more "normal jobs" aren't Allomancers no. And they suffer for it. That's probably one of the reasons that criminal activity is also rife with it. In both eras. 

So I think the signs of their level of prevalence are there. 

Regardless, this is a side tangent, and even at the numbers of the WoB, between mistings, Mistborn, inquisitors, Koloss, and TLR, with atium and Hemalurgy and everything else. I'd still vote Scadrial. 

8 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

That is not entirely true. We have Zane Venture. He was bred intentionally. Straff Venture was many things, but not an idiot. There was a realistic chance of success. That breeding programm was dangerous. In theory it was a capital crime. Hence the ratio must be somewhere between roughly 1:50 to 1:500.

Which, at 1 in 500, that should still mean there are 100 Mistborn in TFE by the 1 per 2000 number for metalborn 

Edited October 17, 2019 by Calderis