The SA hole that I cannot find a good solution for.

[Karger]

On 9/30/2019 at 2:38 AM, Oltux72 said:

Hm. We have seen few of them outside the Ardentia. In particular none of the universal kind.

We still have a large number of functional ones 2thousand years latter.

On 9/30/2019 at 2:38 AM, Oltux72 said:

Shallan never really had experience with money.

This does not mean that she is stupid or that she can't do mental math.

On 9/30/2019 at 2:38 AM, Oltux72 said:

Well, if they wanted to maximize the monetary gain from the device by the marble scheme they would have made multiple mines in a short time and repeated the scheme at multiple locations throughout Roshar. You would also pick locations that allow shipping the marble out by ship easily. And you wouldn't train local people in the use of a soulcaster. And foremost, they would have kept the device. Would you really leave your only soulcaster in the hands of a man of ill repute and questionable economic sense?

And why operate in the Vorin east, where the Ardentia is a problem and soulcasters are more common?

So we agree that the ghoostbloods have primarily political goals.  This is fine but how is Shallan going to make money using the same method? 

On 9/30/2019 at 5:43 AM, Isilel said:

I very much disagree with this. Both technology and magic from  other cosmere planets would give them a wide variety of applications, from spying and stealing to quickly amassing riches. And it seems to me that firearams would shatter shardplate quite nicely, if they hit the same section of it a couple of times.

Firearms are realy not the complicated.  Rosharans could easily replicate them.  Magic often functions weirdly off the shardword in question and does have limited applications in warefar against shards.  Many also have complex fuels that you can't easily get on Roshar.

On 9/30/2019 at 10:42 AM, Pathfinder said:

"It seemed that this Soulcaster was attuned to three Essences in particular: Vapor, Spark, and Lucentia. But it should be able to create any of the Ten Essences, from Zephyr to Talus. That last one was the most important to Shallan, as Talus included stone and earth. She could create new mineral deposits for her family to exploit. It would work; Soulcasters were very rare in Jah Keved, and her family's marble, jade, and opal would sell at a premium." 

This makes more sense thank you.

[+Oltux72]

11 hours ago, Karger said:

We still have a large number of functional ones 2thousand years latter.

After how much maintainance and use? And which percentage is that old?

11 hours ago, Karger said:

This does not mean that she is stupid or that she can't do mental math.

Right, but she is a kind of high risk/high reward personality. She figures that they will all be sold into slavery, if this fails. So she can just as well spend what she has got. She is going all in in poker terms.

11 hours ago, Karger said:

So we agree that the ghoostbloods have primarily political goals.  This is fine but how is Shallan going to make money using the same method?

Non-economic. Possibly intelligence, possibly political ...
Shallan is effectively a tax dodger. The cost of gems is merely a lower limit on the cost of soulcasting. Scarcity of soulcasters has driven prices higher. You may notice that she intended only to make fairly precious kinds of stone.

11 hours ago, Karger said:

Firearms are realy not the complicated.  Rosharans could easily replicate them.  Magic often functions weirdly off the shardword in question and does have limited applications in warefar against shards.  Many also have complex fuels that you can't easily get on Roshar.

Again, the gun, yes. The ammo, no. If you got a blackpowder rifle, then yes, you could reverse engineer the charge on that. But not if you are confronted with modern smokeless powder in an encased round.

[Karger]

59 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Again, the gun, yes. The ammo, no. If you got a blackpowder rifle, then yes, you could reverse engineer the charge on that. But not if you are confronted with modern smokeless powder in an encased round.

You can still soulcast that.

[+Oltux72]

3 hours ago, Karger said:

You can still soulcast that.

Now that is an interesting option. How good would you have to be at soulcasting? And would you get the primer right?

[Karger]

3 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Now that is an interesting option. How good would you have to be at soulcasting? And would you get the primer right?

It is not that complex chemically.  Nothing like organics.  The shape is pretty basic too.

[Isilel]

On 30.9.2019 at 0:42 PM, Oltux72 said:

It still seems inconsistent to me that a group able to make a new fabrial for smoke who can afford to just use it to run a fire in a basement would have difficulty with a soulcaster.

 

I am not sure what you are alluding to. Additionally, we know that "modern" artifabrians have already invented a number of impressive new fabrials, but still can't produce any functioning  soulcasters. There is zero indications that the Ghostbloods can, though they'd be well placed to find any lost artifacts.

 

On 30.9.2019 at 0:42 PM, Oltux72 said:

 

Fortune. At least a plausible answer and better than many others.

 

But why the Davars? It isn't like Shallan was the only budding Lightweaver on Roshar. Why would Ghostbloods would have fixated on her and not, say, Tien, who would have been much easier for them to acquire. And why the Unmade? Cosmere is not WoT, after all - while some things can be foreseen, they are just likelyhoods, rather than something rigidly predetermined. Shallan is important, sure, but she is not one true savior of their world - if the Ghostbloods had managed to get to any other incipient surgebinder before the Skybreakers did, they could have had one at their disposal long before Shallan regained her powers. And I don't think that they needed to go so far into the left field to have a spy among the nobility - on the copntrary, it is likely that they have many. For instance, Highprince Hatham may be associated with Ghostbloods, and if not he personally, then his obviously outworlder ardent almost certainly is.

 

On 30.9.2019 at 2:45 PM, Argel said:

Or they knew the children were of more interest (I think Mraize alludes to this at one point -- they just thought it was Heleran). They would need to plant the seeds for blackmail, control, etc. Also, taking advantage of one goal to achieve another as well plus providing a better cover for the ultimate goal (radiants).

 

I don't remember Mraize hinting that he was particularly interested in Helaran - the Diagrammists at some point theorised that Helaran may have trained Shallan, for some reason. But that was after Shallan burst into prominence at the Shattered Plains, IIRC. But still very weird, if the Ghostblood information about him was correct.

 

On 30.9.2019 at 4:42 PM, Pathfinder said:

 She could create new mineral deposits for her family to exploit. It would work; Soulcasters were very rare in Jah Keved, and her family's marble, jade, and opal would sell at a premium." 

Thank you! So, this is settled from the horse's mouth - soulcasters are _very rare_ in Jah Keved and marble sells _at a premium_ - i.e. it is economically profitable to produce it, even via soulcasting and with quarrying and transport costs added.

 

16 hours ago, Karger said:

We still have a large number of functional ones 2thousand years latter.

How large a number? Given that soulcasters are _very rare_ in Jah Keved and even rarer the farther west you go. Didn't Toh mention that they have none in Rira?

 

16 hours ago, Karger said:

Firearms are realy not the complicated.  Rosharans could easily replicate them.  Magic often functions weirdly off the shardword in question and does have limited applications in warefar against shards. 

I don't understand what you arguing here. The fact is, that despite Roshar being a hub of lively inter-world activity, the firearms have not been replicated so far. And a Rosharan attacked with a firearm would not know what hit them. And offworlder certainly could use them to advantage, provided there weren't too many witnesses around.

A lot of magics also work perfectly normally off-world - the Metallic Arts, the Awakening, etc. Conveniently, the former don't require any foreign investiture and with the latter you can recover all of it back after use, if you are careful and don't make any Lifeless or Type IV Biochromatic entities. And both have lots of interesting applications, both in and outside of combat.

[Karger]

8 minutes ago, Isilel said:

 

I am not sure what you are alluding to

In Shallan's first meeting with ghoostbloods they have an attracter fabrial that calls the smoke and lets them have a fire in their basement.\

9 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Additionally, we know that "modern" artifabrians have already invented a number of impressive new fabrials, but still can't produce any functioning  soulcasters. There is zero indications that the Ghostbloods can, though they'd be well placed to find any lost artifacts.

Agreed.  If they can make soulcasters then they are already way ahead of wherever they need to be to accomplish any conceivable Rosharan goal.

11 minutes ago, Isilel said:

outworlder ardent almost certainly is.

I agree with everything you said except this.  That ardent could be working for any number of groups.  I personally lean toward the sons of honor.

13 minutes ago, Isilel said:

How large a number? Given that soulcasters are _very rare_ in Jah Keved and even rarer the farther west you go. Didn't Toh mention that they have none in Rira?

Probably because they are in Iri instead.

14 minutes ago, Isilel said:

I don't understand what you arguing here. The fact is, that despite Roshar being a hub of lively inter-world activity, the firearms have not been replicated so far. And a Rosharan attacked with a firearm would not know what hit them. And offworlder certainly could use them to advantage, provided there weren't too many witnesses around.

If you can get someone that close to their target without witnesses a poisoned knife is good enough.  No reason to use firearms.  Firearms are noisy obvious and they still load fairly slowly on scadrial.

17 minutes ago, Isilel said:

the Metallic Arts

Can only be used by a select group of people and none of them will stand up against a shardbearer in combat(except maybe a stealrunner). 

18 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Awakening

Limited breath.  Expensive.  Also only the most powerful can stand up to a shardbearer in single combat.

Out of combat they may have some uses in espionage but even so you would have to be very careful.  Using locals like Tyn seems smarter in almost every case.

[+Oltux72]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

Agreed.  If they can make soulcasters then they are already way ahead of wherever they need to be to accomplish any conceivable Rosharan goal.

Odium and the Unmade are on Roshar or at least the Rosharan system
And at the risk of repeating myself. If you had very few soulcasters, would you really give one away for free to Lin Davar?

1 hour ago, Karger said:

Can only be used by a select group of people and none of them will stand up against a shardbearer in combat(except maybe a stealrunner). 
 

(Scadrial)

Spoiler

Koloss or other hemalurgical constructs. They had spikes in their collection. Also airships from Southern Scadrial and

(Threnody)

Spoiler

Weaponized Shades. The Ghostly Gondola is roughly contemporary.

And artillery.  Shard Plate against rifles may be unclear, but a shell will do the job. And they do not have all that many sets of Plate on Roshar. And whatever the ether in their collection can do.

 

2 hours ago, Isilel said:

But why the Davars? It isn't like Shallan was the only budding Lightweaver on Roshar.

Quite possibly the earliest though.

2 hours ago, Isilel said:

Why would Ghostbloods would have fixated on her and not, say, Tien, who would have been much easier for them to acquire.

Acquire, yes. Control and monitor inconspiciously, no. You hardly can put a servant there. And Shallan is the most senior member of the order. If they wanted to get a spy into the Knights Radiant specifically. Shallan will be as good as it gets.

2 hours ago, Isilel said:

How large a number? Given that soulcasters are _very rare_ in Jah Keved and even rarer the farther west you go. Didn't Toh mention that they have none in Rira?

That however is a reason they should have used their soulcaster there, economically speaking.

 

[Karger]

22 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Odium and the Unmade are on Roshar or at least the Rosharan system
And at the risk of repeating myself. If you had very few soulcasters, would you really give one away for free to Lin Davar?

Lin Davar was part of their organization.  It was a lone not a gift.  They also clearly had good blackmail material on him(the use of said soulcaster).  If they can make them their should be a few others pooping up somewhere and the ghoostblood reach should be even greater then it is now.

[+Oltux72]

1 hour ago, Karger said:

Lin Davar was part of their organization.  It was a lone not a gift.  They also clearly had good blackmail material on him(the use of said soulcaster).  If they can make them their should be a few others pooping up somewhere and the ghoostblood reach should be even greater then it is now.

He did them little to no good. And his soulcaster was used rarely. They could have run it round the clock turning out aluminium.

[Karger]

29 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

He did them little to no good. And his soulcaster was used rarely. They could have run it round the clock turning out aluminium.

They can always produce aluminum latter if they have to.  They know the desolation is coming but the limiting factor with soulcasters is often gems not soulcasters themselves.  During a desolation gemstones are used by radiants, and to create stuff(this wheres down stockpiles) causing deflation.  The end result is that it makes financial sense not to use soulcasters at all times.  The ghoostbloods may not know the full extent of aluminum's usefulness.

[+Oltux72]

22 minutes ago, Karger said:

They can always produce aluminum latter if they have to.  They know the desolation is coming but the limiting factor with soulcasters is often gems not soulcasters themselves.

Therefore exactly you should use it before gems become scarcer.

22 minutes ago, Karger said:

  During a desolation gemstones are used by radiants, and to create stuff(this wheres down stockpiles) causing deflation.  The end result is that it makes financial sense not to use soulcasters at all times.  The ghoostbloods may not know the full extent of aluminum's usefulness.

No, by your own reasoning. Soulcasters run on money. Deflation means that you get less money for the stuff you make. Hence you should sell as much stuff as you can before money becomes scarce.The premise is that you can operate at a profit. Use it to make money.

[Karger]

6 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Therefore exactly you should use it before gems become scarcer.

 

6 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

No, by your own reasoning. Soulcasters run on money. Deflation means that you get less money for the stuff you make. Hence you should sell as much stuff as you can before money becomes scarce.The premise is that you can operate at a profit. Use it to make money.

Deflation will make money more valuable.  So you should stockpile money and not expend it.  Also if you expend too much you will ruin the market by driving down prices.