Long Game 60: The Shadow Over the Forests of Hell

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The Government Agent, according to Aman, was able to Day track, and could confer this power upon other Fort Folk by converting them to his sub-faction within the village. Their goal was to lynch the Deep One and one of his subordinates/Dagon’s Will members.

 I’m currently leaning towards [CadCom], especially as a potential Deep One, because of the circumstances surrounding his survival D1, and because he’s the only reasonable candidate remaining for an active Deep One. 

I also think it’s worth noting that Devotary is by no means off the hook; despite a claim she made to me last cycle in the middle of Aman and I investigating her, the evidence still stands that she killed Striker last round over Sart, helped push the last-second lynch away from CadCom (who I suspect) on C1, and also was potentially driven insane by her own team yesterday in an attempt to deflect Aman’s conviction that she was the Deep One. 

Ventyl going insane is probably from Unforgettable Horrors, unless they have been sending in actions while pretending to be inactive, and are another vanilla Cultist; however, I have far stronger suspicions as to who that actually is, so they’re a very low priority suspect right now. 

In other news, someone should have had the Necromicon last night, and used it. Any hints that could confirm anything about the Deep One? 

Aman certainly didn't seem to know his power only worked on Fort Folk.

I can confirm that I tracked CadCom N1 and saw that he scanned Araris. I haven't been able to determine whether that's evidence of a non-elim, or an elim wasting their action in the hopes of getting scanned, as CadCom was a high priority target after D1. I don't believe the Deep One used their reveal ability. I was driven insane attempting to Discover the Hidden on Sart, which it turns out was more redundant than I'd thought. I don't think Ventyl was a casualty of the Deep One, as he wasn't posting and Will!Ventyl would just be sacrificed today. There are enough inactives that the Deep One could be inactive, or submitting the kill instead of an inactive Will or an inconsistent Founder.

I voted to save Sart as he was either one turn away from being a villager or would be easily outed by a scan. Striker didn't have a particularly high chance of being evil, but the only other vote was on me. I did not vote C1, either to save CadCom or condemn him.

[CadCom]

17 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

It was getting louder.

He could hear it for certain, now, the discordant beat like nothing he'd ever heard before.

Step carefully, indeed...

----

I watched Aman. He recruited ILuvHats.

Hmmm. Can we get @ILuvHats to confirm if they were recruited?

@Elandera, are we able to know what point Aman's Convert(or convert type action) happens in the order of actions?

EDIT: @Necromancer' If you exist, perhaps it could be good to get a PM from Aman with any last info he has. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[CadCom]

Sorry for the double post, but I wanted to let everyone know if they try to PM me or @ me, that I have officially changed my name from Cadmium Compounder to CadCom. 

I feel that this is an important announcement that warrants a separate post. It shouldn't be too drastic of a name change to cause excessive confusion, but enough that an announce should be made. I may also be updating my avatar relatively soon. But it won't be for a couple of days at least. 

[Elandera]

Announcement for everyone! This cycle will be extended until 6 p.m. PST tomorrow. Further rollovers will likely take place at that time as well until I have power/internet access restored. Please make sure when asking questions to the GMs, to also tag @Snipexe, as I will no longer be a reliable contact after tomorrow morning.

3 hours ago, CadCom said:

are we able to know what point Aman's Convert(or convert type action) happens in the order of actions?

I meant to answer your earlier question, but forgot. Sorry. Anyway, as your answer to both questions:

(Thanks to El's PAFO designs for inspiration)

Edited October 8, 2019 by Elandera

[Araris Valerian]

I’m going to follow Fifth’s vote on CadCom. My primary motivation is clearing up D1, especially with the possibility of a Devotary/Cadcom team. Also, he put together an analysis post but didn’t draw any conclusions. 

As for killing Aman, the Deep One might have done that, since kill attempts only have a 25% chance to succeed.

[Rathmaskal]

Rathinald here...  Seems we have a couple candidates being discussed at this point:

CadCom (2) - Fifth, Araris
Xino (1) - CadCom

[CadCom]

I'm going to be moving my vote. Seeing as no one else so far has either confirmed or denied Xino's action claim, I will remove my vote from him for now. However. I have noticed that Devotary is considered to be on my team, and on the team that Aman suggested. 

This seems to make it more likely that Devotary is an elim, seeing as he has been considered on two different teams. 

Note, I do not think that xino is necessarily cleared, as it would be within the Elim's interests to see who Aman converts in case the conversion still goes through, or in case the kill failed. 

[Fifth Scholar]

I keep apologising for not being around enough, but I actually do feel terrible—I had a cross country meet take up nine hours of my life yesterday, but had intended to post after it was over—that said, I immediately fell asleep when I got home (with the light on, no less) and therefore couldn’t get on the Shard. So this one’s entirely on me. This game is probably taking more of my time than I can spare, so please don’t expect anything enormous out of me except maybe on the weekends, but let me see what I can respond to. 

@Rathmaskal, understandable, and thank you for replying promptly. That said, while you’ve done you list analysis, which is a nice and succinct way of presenting information, you’ve not yet voted; do you plan on doing so any time soon?

@CadCom, I will admit to being at least slightly confused by your defence. You accuse Devotary, but then cite her action as proof of yours N1; then, after quite a long section of your post (raising good points, I would note), you end up on Xino, who was entirely tangential to most of your argument. While Xino is the last of Aman’s main candidates for being the Deep One, he is also not an excellent lynch candidate in the sense that there’s little to be said about him—if we had our Gravedigger, I’d advocate killing him to sort it out, but a lynch on him might kill discussion (which seems to already be dying). As with Devotary, I’ve received a claim from you in PM which is difficult to verify and almost amplifies my suspicions, and while you perhaps have a better record with your actual votes, the way others’ votes fell on D1 to save you remains a point of suspicion. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity, the Agent only being able to convert Fort Folk was a guess by Aman and I after his failure to convert presumably neutral!Sart and our reasoning that recruiting an Eliminator would be overpowered, and imbalanced, as compromised docs usually are. I...somewhat accept your reasoning justifying your vote, and had forgotten you were not part of the swing away from CadCom, but I still somewhat question the logic behind killing a likely villager over a neutral suspect and potential Eliminator. I’m no longer terribly sure how alignment indicative this is for you, but you certainly aren’t village in my eyes. 

As for who my final vote is actually going on, I’m somewhat torn—both Devotary and CadCom have no confirmable alibi for last night, seem to be relying on each other for their N1 alibis despite presumably both wanting to live, and have some unsavoury role in a lynch. While both of them may be Eliminators, CadCom is the only one that could be the Deep One of the two, so my vote will stay there. If rollover is at 9 EDT/6 PDT today, I’ll probably have time to get back on before the cycle ends, so I’ll make my actual final decision then, but these are my current thoughts. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

[Devotary], the Agent only being able to convert Fort Folk was a guess by Aman and I after his failure to convert presumably neutral!Sart and our reasoning that recruiting an Eliminator would be overpowered, and imbalanced, as compromised docs usually are. I...somewhat accept your reasoning justifying your vote, and had forgotten you were not part of the swing away from CadCom, but I still somewhat question the logic behind killing a likely villager over a neutral suspect and potential Eliminator. I’m no longer terribly sure how alignment indicative this is for you, but you certainly aren’t village in my eyes. 

Fair. 

Striker ended up being a villager, but he was one of the people who saved CadCom D1, and I do remember you and Aman saying that one of the three people who did had a fair chance of being evil. I can explain better if I ever become sane again, although you probably don't need it.

[CadCom]

I'm not going to lie, I'm pretty frustrated that since my last post 16 hours ago, there has only been one(two) additional post(s). 

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@CadCom, I will admit to being at least slightly confused by your defence. You accuse Devotary, but then cite her action as proof of yours N1; then, after quite a long section of your post (raising good points, I would note), you end up on Xino, who was entirely tangential to most of your argument. While Xino is the last of Aman’s main candidates for being the Deep One, he is also not an excellent lynch candidate in the sense that there’s little to be said about him—if we had our Gravedigger, I’d advocate killing him to sort it out, but a lynch on him might kill discussion (which seems to already be dying). As with Devotary, I’ve received a claim from you in PM which is difficult to verify and almost amplifies my suspicions, and while you perhaps have a better record with your actual votes, the way others’ votes fell on D1 to save you remains a point of suspicion. 

Araris should also be able to confirm that my guess was at least correct N1. I received the result that he did nothing. @Araris Valerian 

The reason I accuse Devotary, despite using her action as proof of mine D1, is because I know he scanned me. After she scanned me, she reached out, asking what I learned from scanning Araris. She is the one who brought it up to me *Ninja'd here by Devotary*

Yet at the same time, there have been other things Devotary has done to cause suspicion. Additionally, Devotary was on Aman's list of elims. That is why, ultimately, my vote fell on her, however, prior to that, I did vote on Xino, who was also on Aman's list, as a way to guage their reaction. After xino claimed Aman's action, I eventually decided it was probably best to clear them. Despite running through multiple possibilities in my head, I eventually decided that the elims wouldn't have action scanned him if they were also planning on killing him. It would just seem like overkill to me. 

I'm also a bit confused why you are removing the three people Aman believes are elim in your analysis, and instead decided to focus on others, who you believe would have learned some information from him, as opposed to the actual people that decided to kill him. Perhaps you'd be able to better explain this jump in logic for me?

I've noticed that, of the four votes that saved me N1, Striker is dead, and we've practically confirmed Sart is/was the criminal, who would now have village intentions. That leaves me and Venture. I feel like my vote on someone else should be considered NAI, as no one usually wants to die N1. So that just leaves Venture. That would just be possible elim out of the three people who voted on Shanerockes (other than me) This makes it look like it was hardly an elim swing. It seems like it could have simply just developed. The claimed reason for venture's vote was because he doesn't like lynching at all D1, but because a lynch was inevitable, he chose to swing the lynch toward an inactive player.  This coherent with Venture's normal play style, IIRC, which makes it very NAI, in my opinion. Not village, just NAI. 

23 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fair. 

Striker ended up being a villager, but he was one of the people who saved CadCom D1, and I do remember you and Aman saying that one of the three people who did had a fair chance of being evil. I can explain better if I ever become sane again, although you probably don't need it.

I wish I had a better explanation about this, because if there is one, it has to be Venture, but his vote falls along his normal playstyle. Although this post does make me lean a tiny bit less elim on you, I will leave my vote on you for now. 

[Rathmaskal]

Rathinald here.

5 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

 

@Rathmaskal, understandable, and thank you for replying promptly. That said, while you’ve done you list analysis, which is a nice and succinct way of presenting information, you’ve not yet voted; do you plan on doing so any time soon?

I thought the elderly were supposed to have learned patience as they aged?  Fear not, old woman, I have come to a conclusion.

It's quite simple, really when you look at the facts:

• Several people here have claimed that Tim's survival two days ago was due to intervention by the very cult we're after, implying the Tim himself is a cult member.
• There were four people involved in the vote who voted on shane!
  • Tim
  • Mindful
  • Mr Freegift
  • Patrick Punnington
• Of the four of them, Tim, of course was trying to save himself, Mr Freegift has departed, and Mindful has proven to be not a cultist, but a thief!  As I saw with my own eyes!
• So, Patrick Punnington would be the logical choice to be a cultist IF Tim is also a cultist.
• However, what if Tim is NOT a cultist?
• In my vast experience working to take down this type of activity (who could forget the disappearances in Laksamton last year, or ritual sacrifices in Lord Flamingo's castle the year before) I've found that when the cultists themselves are not the targets, they tend to lend their support rather haphazardly.  Which means that it is far more likely that Patrick is a cultist than Tim!
• Additionally, Patrick (Venture) has managed to maintain his sanity the entire time so far when we know that multiple cultists also have this ability!

I'll take the first part of my fee now.

[+Ed Venture]

Vote tally:

CadCom (2) - Fifth, Araris
Devotionary  (1) -  CadCom
Venture (1) - Rath

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Additionally, Patrick (Venture) has managed to maintain his sanity the entire time so far when we know that multiple cultists also have this ability!

I have gone insane! It was when I redirected Aman remember? And it was a mistake..but I did go insane. Besides, insanity isn’t the best way to clear anyone anymore, a Dagon’s will member would immediately try to get insane to clear themselves. A deep one could easily target a cultist to get us to trust them!

I currently don’t trust CadCom, his survival has been suspicious. His voting had been suspicious. He’s a suspicious person. If he survives the lynch, we know he’s a Deep one. Unless @CadCom wants to claim Silver Bones?

Edited October 9, 2019 by Butt Ad Venture

[Araris Valerian]

@ILuvHats and @Ark1002, could we get some input from you two? I can see you’ve both been active on the forum, which makes me rather suspicious of both of you. Ventyl hasn’t been online since 9/29, so I doubt he’s an elim.

I’d like to hear from @Rathmaskal in response to the fact Venture has gone insane.

@CadCom my understanding of Fifth’s reasoning is that he believes Aman was killed by a player that Aman revealed crucial information about his role to. Since Aman thought those 3 players were elims, he probably didn’t reveal info to them. Thus, they aren’t responsible for the leak.

Also, while you are correct that I did no action N1, I’m not sure how that clears you in any way. Yeah, it gives you an alibi N1, but with a probable 3 elim team, that doesn’t mean much.

I haven’t really done any analysis here, but I’m also currently happy with Cadcom being lynched.

[+Ark1002]

Sorry, sorry. I haven't actually been that active, and I have a lot going on.

I've had a lot going on IRL. Hopefully I'll get to it to tonight.

[Araris Valerian]

@Ark1002, thanks for responding. Could you place a vote on one of CadCom, Venture, or Devotary? Even if you don’t have any justification, an elim would have bias in their vote (if one of the above 3 is an elim), while a villager wouldn’t, so this could help clear/condemn you. Also, if you place a vote in thread then we don’t have to worry about secret votes as much.

[Rathmaskal]

Rathinald here.

• Xino
• Rath (me)
• CadCom
• Araris
• Hats
• Sart
• Ark

~~

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’d like to hear from @Rathmaskal in response to the fact Venture has gone insane.

Welp, fixed.  I missed that in the D2 writeup.

Quote

And it was a mistake..but I did go insane. Besides, insanity isn’t the best way to clear anyone anymore, a Dagon’s will member would immediately try to get insane to clear themselves. A deep one could easily target a cultist to get us to trust them!

Patrick

~~

Well, dear fellow, you see, it's not a matter of finding the cult members, but finding their leaders.  By eliminating the people who have gone insane and the people who at least have a soft clear, I seem to have effectively a 50/50 chance of finding either The Deep One or The Founder.  If you have a more damning case against someone who has gone insane, I'd like to hear it.

In light of this new evidence, I'm willing to waive the first part of my fee as I've clearly not held up my end of the bargain (if, however, Mr. Punnington turns out to be a member of the cult, I will invoice you for the full amount)

So, among the remaining non-insaners, we have Enasni, Tim, Kills-in Pimple, and Arr. K Thousantoo to discuss.  I don't know why I'm being so resistant to suspecting Tim.  Perhaps it's time to follow along with everyone else and vote for the man.  The remaining three players have not been overly active unfortunately, so it's tougher to get a read on them. *ninja Fade*

There remains the possibility that both Tim and Mr. Punnington are both members of this vile cult.

I'll join the vote against Tim for now.

[+Ark1002]

ok. CadCom

does that work? I'll probably change it later when I actually read what's going on

[CadCom]

3 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

ok. CadCom

does that work? I'll probably change it later when I actually read what's going on

I dont think this works. There are definitely other better lynch options. Most of the villagers/neutrals will be upset if I am lynched. 

I'm going to try to do one more analysis style post, but I dont know if I'll have time to finish it. Im on lunch run, and work is busy today. 

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, due to a PM I just received, I’m going to take my vote off of CadCom. Independent of that, I think we should probably wait on lynching him regardless since he’s suspected of being the Deep One, and we still don’t have our Necronomicon hint (so far as I know).

I’m going to instead vote on Devotary, who I am just as suspicious of but who hasn’t been contributing as much to the discussion.

 

[CadCom]

1. Xinoehp512
2. Rathmaskal
3. Fifth Scholar Insane
4. Cadmium Compounder
5. Araris Valerian Silver bones
6. shanerockes Journalist
7. Amanuensis Government Agent
8. Butt Ad Venture Insane
9. StrikerEZ Gravedigger
10. Ventyl Insane
11. ILuvHats
12. Sart Criminal/Village (With the item I used to have)
13. Ark1002
14. Devotary of Spontaneity Insane

This is a list of people we know stuff about, that I can recall as of this point. 

That leaves the remaining people that could have been the Deep one or The Founder to Xino Rath, CadCom, ILuvHats, Ark. I guess Araris could technically be the founder, but to me that seems too powerful. I know for sure that I am not the Deep one. That narrows it down to the remaining 4, unless I'm missing something. So I'll focus a quick analysis on these four. Unfortunately, at least two of these have not been as active as I would have hoped. 

@xinoehp512: has has had only a few posts. Most of these are mostly RP. D2 they did vote for Sart, then later remove their vote. The reason they voted, as well as the reason they removed their vote were both pretty much on a whim. No one has counter claimed this claim. @ILuvHats are you able to confirm whether you were converted. (This may not be smart, so use your knowledge about your role prior to role claiming. Would it even be possible for you to be converted?)

@Rathmaskal: Rath has definitely provided ample analysis. I don't have a whole lot of time to dig into it, but has anyone really cleared Rath, or are we just simply taking what he says at face value. I never really like it when someone flies under the radar so easily. 

@ILuvHats: The majority of their posts are RP, but they do have one post that offers a bit of substance. It shows a slight misunderstanding of the Gravedigger, as well as the Attack mechanics. Other than that, they've been relatively quiet, despite stating that they are following what is going on. Possibly recruited by Aman prior to his death

@Ark1002: Relatively inactive. It seems like they have a lot going on. I understand, because I've had that happen before. Still we can't clear him.

I really don't like how Rath has flown under the radar so easily. He might be the best bet of a possible elim from. I could be wrong about that. But when I flip, please, everyone remember, If you vote between these 4, you will have a 50/50 chance of hitting one of the more powerful elims. 

I think it's quite likely that the last elim has gone insane, in order to hide among the villagers.

I was going to change my vote to Rath, but I'll keep it on devotary for a short time right now. I think Rath might be a more likely candidate though. 

Peace out everyone. I'll keep trying to watch, the game, but I can't guarantee I'll be active enough to respond. Once I get off work, I have a job interview for a -hopefully- better job. 

[Sart]

Let's not waste time. If we eliminate anyone who went insane, Araris since he was attacked, and myself since plenty of people saw me stealing, we are down to five suspects. Two out of those five are most likely evil. 

@Devotary of Spontaneity You're obviously the Mayor. Who is your Bodyguard? If they are on the list, that gives us a fifty-fifty shot.

[CadCom]

2 minutes ago, Sart said:

 

@Devotary of Spontaneity You're obviously the Mayor. Who is your Bodyguard? If they are on the list, that gives us a fifty-fifty shot.

This is a pretty big role claim on someone else's behalf, though I guess it makes the most sense out of anyone else. This does make me want to definitely move my vote to someone else. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

27 minutes ago, Sart said:

You're obviously the Mayor. Who is your Bodyguard? If they are on the list, that gives us a fifty-fifty shot.

You shouldn't know that the extra vote on Striker wasn't the Founder's work, but sure. If the Bounty Hunter was around they probably would have killed you. My Bodyguard Venture has gone insane. I did claim to Fifth N2 and didn't get attacked, but the extra two votes from redirecting me might have been worth sparing me if Fifth were evil. I'm sort of interested in hearing what CadCom's role claim is, but we may not get a counterclaim even if he was lying.

[Araris Valerian]

Devotary. Bother. So we think two of Xino, Rath, Hats, and Ark are elims. I’m going to pass on Rath for now, simply because he’s saying so much that if he does end up flipping elim, we could probably find his team from that. Ark voted on Cadcom, but I can see that coming from either alignment. Hats is new, so I guess I’ll vote for Xino. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

@ILuvHats, be sure to use your supposed Day tracking ability on someone capable of taking an action, preferably someone like Sart who we know is a villager. If you can successful announce someone's action and target, you should be able to prove that you were converted and are thus a villager. 

CadCom(4): Fifth, Venture, Rath, Ark
Devotary(1): CadCom
Xino(1): Araris