Long Game 60: The Shadow Over the Forests of Hell

[CadCom]

Bummer, we lost the journalist. That is a role I would have liked to have had alive for longer. 

23 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I stand by my last post. I suspect CadCom was saved by an ally.

"On the contrary, I honestly have no idea why people chose to save me. I have not spoken with any of these people privately. They must have heard that I have an amazing æbleskiver recipe. It's the best food! It's like a pancake, in a ball!" Tim said. He wanted to try sounding sophisticated, but halfway through his thought, he got distracted. He popped another æbleskiver into his mouth. 

 

[Fifth Scholar]

Returned just now from school; please let me piece my sanity back together so I can start writing a five-page Spanish essay and I’ll see if I can respond to some of this later tonight. 

[Rathmaskal]

Rathinald here. Seems you people don't much like the literary kind.

~~

Sorry for not hopping back on and voting - had a 3.5 hour flight then a 2 hour drive. (I'm away from home through Sunday, but I'll be able to hop in here from time to time)

[Sart]

Mindful considered what had happened. Tim remained standing, while the stranger known as Shanerockes had been killed. Mindful had thought that the town was going to turn on Tim (I thought rollover was in 7 minutes), but her derision had apparently stirred up Tim's defenders. The journalist's body now laid before her, and she debated whether she made the right choice. A journalist could have dug up useful information on the cultists. On the other hand, the journalist was a stranger to the town, and wouldn't have cared about their plight while assembling his story. Would it have been better to follow the crowd, and kill Tim? Mindful wasn't sure, but this turn of events had at least spurred some activity. Already, the town was turning on each other.

She decided to split the townsfolk into categories, in order to better analyze the situation.

• Tim's Accusers:
  • Ruthful (Fifth Scholar): Ruthful accused Tim of ignoring the discussion in favor of gorging himself on desserts. It was a fair complaint, as Ruthful, despite her age, was the most active person among them. But was that activity normal, or was it caused by a Faustian bargain?
  • Innocent (Amanuensis): Innocent was the one who really put the heat on Tim. Innocent's words had been concise but clear this whole time. Mindful felt herself being suckered in at almost every point. However, his trust in Mr. Freegift seemed too freely given. Was it an attempt to sway an innocent to his nefarious ways?
  • Fade (Araris Valerian): Fade was determined to kill someone. That much was obvious. Even after Tim tried to defend himself, Fade turned on him. Ironically, that made Mindful trust him more. They needed people unafraid to take decisive action.
• Tim's Defenders:
  • Mindful herself (Sart) was obviously lumped in here. Unless she had been totally corrupted, she knew she was working with the Village to purge the cultists.
  • Likewise, Tim (Cadmium Compounder) was here as well. She couldn't blame him for self-preservation, but wished he would stop regurgitating what others had said. At least he had provided refreshments, which Mindful was currently enjoying.
  • Mr. Freegift (StrikerEZ) was an interesting case. He had created the tie to see what happened. Mindful had also spotted him lurking about while Tim was in trouble. He was probably Mindful's biggest suspicion at the moment. Advocating for more killing seemed like something a cultist would do, not a villager.
  • Finally, Patrick (Butt Ad Venture) was the one who broke the tie. According to him, he didn't want any violence, but since he was forced to choose, he chose to kill the stranger. It was understandable, but he would have to get over his qualms eventually. They didn't have much time to waste.
• The Lurkers:
  • The Reverend P.I. (ILuvHats) was not helping very much. Perhaps that was to be expected when introducing a clergyman to violence, but they needed more from him.
  • Lord Ghent (Devotary of Spontaneity) appeared to be more focused on what the town could do than on which people were killing the town. His investigations might prove useful, but he need to participate in the task at hand. For whatever reason though, Mindful trusted him slightly. It seemed the Lord didn't want to sully his hands with the distasteful act of murder.
  • Rathinald (Rathmaskal) was insisting that logic be used in these trying times. Mindful wasn't sure how logical one could be when insanity lurked around every corner, but she agreed in theory. She just wanted him to put that logic into action.
  • Enasni (Xinoehp512) was still swaying back and forth. It was creeping Mindful out. She screamed at him to do something else. It didn't seem to be having any effect.
• The Cowards:
  • Nogard fo Redro (Ventyl) hadn't been seen since the kilings began. He might have been already dead for all Mindful knew. That would be a shame, but there was nothing she could do about it.
  • However, Arr. K. Thousantoo (Ark1002) had no such excuse. They had been spotted only six hours ago. This was simply unacceptable. They had to fight back against the cultists. There was no point in hiding.

[StrikerEZ]

2 hours ago, Sart said:

Mr. Freegift (StrikerEZ) was an interesting case. He had created the tie to see what happened. Mindful had also spotted him lurking about while Tim was in trouble. He was probably Mindful's biggest suspicion at the moment. Advocating for more killing seemed like something a cultist would do, not a villager.

Honestly, my thought process was that I didn't want CadCom to die, I didn't really want Shanerockes to die, it didn't look like anyone else was gonna end up getting lynched that late in the cycle, and we honestly needed to lynch someone. I'm not usually a fan of D1 no lynches (as long as there's been a decent level of participation from everyone on D1), and every lynch tells us something useful. Granted it wasn't much help knowing that Shane was just the journalist, though that is one potential elim-siding neutral out of the way. Granted, this probably gives more incentive to the other neutrals to work with the elims. They don't want the village getting too far ahead of the game, and helping the elims could stop that from happening. 

Also, I happened to be around near the end of the cycle because I had a couple minutes before class started, which was the exact time that the cycle was gonna end. It wasn't enough time to really change anything, unless I wanted to lynch CadCom.

[+Ark1002]

Art K. Thousantoo awoke from his slumber. It looked like he had missed much this time.

[Amanuensis]

11 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Bummer, we lost the journalist. That is a role I would have liked to have had alive for longer. 

"On the contrary, I honestly have no idea why people chose to save me. I have not spoken with any of these people privately. They must have heard that I have an amazing æbleskiver recipe. It's the best food! It's like a pancake, in a ball!" Tim said. He wanted to try sounding sophisticated, but halfway through his thought, he got distracted. He popped another æbleskiver into his mouth. 

Hm. CadCom. Last game we played together you did an amazing job at making your Villagerness obvious. A lot of it was the sheer amount of effort you were putting into the game, and a lot of it was the perspective I could see you approaching situations from. While I love the RP, I'm hoping you'll be able to manage something similar this game so I can remove you from my suspicions.

8 hours ago, Sart said:

Mindful considered what had happened. Tim remained standing, while the stranger known as Shanerockes had been killed. Mindful had thought that the town was going to turn on Tim (I thought rollover was in 7 minutes), but her derision had apparently stirred up Tim's defenders. The journalist's body now laid before her, and she debated whether she made the right choice. A journalist could have dug up useful information on the cultists. On the other hand, the journalist was a stranger to the town, and wouldn't have cared about their plight while assembling his story. Would it have been better to follow the crowd, and kill Tim? Mindful wasn't sure, but this turn of events had at least spurred some activity. Already, the town was turning on each other.

She decided to split the townsfolk into categories, in order to better analyze the situation.

• Tim's Accusers:
  • Ruthful (Fifth Scholar): Ruthful accused Tim of ignoring the discussion in favor of gorging himself on desserts. It was a fair complaint, as Ruthful, despite her age, was the most active person among them. But was that activity normal, or was it caused by a Faustian bargain?
  • Innocent (Amanuensis): Innocent was the one who really put the heat on Tim. Innocent's words had been concise but clear this whole time. Mindful felt herself being suckered in at almost every point. However, his trust in Mr. Freegift seemed too freely given. Was it an attempt to sway an innocent to his nefarious ways?
  • Fade (Araris Valerian): Fade was determined to kill someone. That much was obvious. Even after Tim tried to defend himself, Fade turned on him. Ironically, that made Mindful trust him more. They needed people unafraid to take decisive action.
• Tim's Defenders:
  • Mindful herself (Sart) was obviously lumped in here. Unless she had been totally corrupted, she knew she was working with the Village to purge the cultists.
  • Likewise, Tim (Cadmium Compounder) was here as well. She couldn't blame him for self-preservation, but wished he would stop regurgitating what others had said. At least he had provided refreshments, which Mindful was currently enjoying.
  • Mr. Freegift (StrikerEZ) was an interesting case. He had created the tie to see what happened. Mindful had also spotted him lurking about while Tim was in trouble. He was probably Mindful's biggest suspicion at the moment. Advocating for more killing seemed like something a cultist would do, not a villager.
  • Finally, Patrick (Butt Ad Venture) was the one who broke the tie. According to him, he didn't want any violence, but since he was forced to choose, he chose to kill the stranger. It was understandable, but he would have to get over his qualms eventually. They didn't have much time to waste.
• The Lurkers:
  • The Reverend P.I. (ILuvHats) was not helping very much. Perhaps that was to be expected when introducing a clergyman to violence, but they needed more from him.
  • Lord Ghent (Devotary of Spontaneity) appeared to be more focused on what the town could do than on which people were killing the town. His investigations might prove useful, but he need to participate in the task at hand. For whatever reason though, Mindful trusted him slightly. It seemed the Lord didn't want to sully his hands with the distasteful act of murder.
  • Rathinald (Rathmaskal) was insisting that logic be used in these trying times. Mindful wasn't sure how logical one could be when insanity lurked around every corner, but she agreed in theory. She just wanted him to put that logic into action.
  • Enasni (Xinoehp512) was still swaying back and forth. It was creeping Mindful out. She screamed at him to do something else. It didn't seem to be having any effect.
• The Cowards:
  • Nogard fo Redro (Ventyl) hadn't been seen since the kilings began. He might have been already dead for all Mindful knew. That would be a shame, but there was nothing she could do about it.
  • However, Arr. K. Thousantoo (Ark1002) had no such excuse. They had been spotted only six hours ago. This was simply unacceptable. They had to fight back against the cultists. There was no point in hiding.

Okay so the question we ultimately need to ask ourselves is whether or not CadCom is an eliminator. The fact that there was no vote manipulation to help save him is likely a point in his favor. We know about the Founder's ability, after all, and there's no way the elims could know if any villagers would use Voice in a Crowd, so it would be risky not to act for their teammate.

On that note, though, I'm surprised we didn't see any ViaC's at all. If I were an elim and I saw a V/V lynch unfolding, I'd consider using an anonymous vote to mess with things further. Especially this early in the game when there's more cover for the cultists. That either suggests they want us to think they don't care about this lynch, that they were unable to put in an anonymous vote because they already voted, they were too paranoid of getting caught if they didn't vote, or they just weren't around during those last few hours of the turn.

Lot of possibilities, and none of them make me feel more confident one-way-or-another. Does anyone else have some thoughts pertaining to this?

Regardless of that, we can try to work through alignment probabilities, based on lynch positioning.

For quite a while no one really came to CadCom's defense. Fifth was the initial vote for minor reasoning, I added my vote to make the threat real / because I didn't have a reason to lynch anyone else at the time, and Araris voted for him because of what I mentioned at the beginning of this post; CadCom looked more like he was trying to delay his death than help the village. Overall, I think these votes are pretty clean.

Sart was the first one to go for Shanerockes alongside the other inactives. I don't really fault him for that since I usually go about things a similar way or at least support it, but when I saw 2 players other than Sart come to CadCom's defense when he hadn't really done much so late in the turn, I decided to leave my vote where it was. Between those two players, I only really suspect Venture. I stand by my village read of Striker, so in a world where CadCom is an elim, than I'd bet a hefty pile of silver on Venture being an elim too.

I am slowly opening my eyes to a V/V lynch world, though. Of Hats, Devotary, Rath and Xino, I would guess Devotary for sure. She is the kind of player I imagine would not want their team risking being found out by an anonymous vote this early in the game. Especially if she wasn't the only elim that didn't vote. It would draw too much attention to a tiny pool of 4 players if half of them are evil, even if it would frame CadCom and probably get him lynched soon.

As such, my current guesses would probably be:

• CadCom, Venture, +1 of the remaining 6 who didn't vote for CadCom
• Devotary, +1 of those who voted, +1 of those who didn't vote

 

[Fifth Scholar]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Hm. CadCom. Last game we played together you did an amazing job at making your Villagerness obvious. A lot of it was the sheer amount of effort you were putting into the game, and a lot of it was the perspective I could see you approaching situations from. While I love the RP, I'm hoping you'll be able to manage something similar this game so I can remove you from my suspicions.

Okay so the question we ultimately need to ask ourselves is whether or not CadCom is an eliminator. The fact that there was no vote manipulation to help save him is likely a point in his favor. We know about the Founder's ability, after all, and there's no way the elims could know if any villagers would use Voice in a Crowd, so it would be risky not to act for their teammate.

On that note, though, I'm surprised we didn't see any ViaC's at all. If I were an elim and I saw a V/V lynch unfolding, I'd consider using an anonymous vote to mess with things further. Especially this early in the game when there's more cover for the cultists. That either suggests they want us to think they don't care about this lynch, that they were unable to put in an anonymous vote because they already voted, they were too paranoid of getting caught if they didn't vote, or they just weren't around during those last few hours of the turn.

Lot of possibilities, and none of them make me feel more confident one-way-or-another. Does anyone else have some thoughts pertaining to this?

Regardless of that, we can try to work through alignment probabilities, based on lynch positioning.

For quite a while no one really came to CadCom's defense. Fifth was the initial vote for minor reasoning, I added my vote to make the threat real / because I didn't have a reason to lynch anyone else at the time, and Araris voted for him because of what I mentioned at the beginning of this post; CadCom looked more like he was trying to delay his death than help the village. Overall, I think these votes are pretty clean.

Sart was the first one to go for Shanerockes alongside the other inactives. I don't really fault him for that since I usually go about things a similar way or at least support it, but when I saw 2 players other than Sart come to CadCom's defense when he hadn't really done much so late in the turn, I decided to leave my vote where it was. Between those two players, I only really suspect Venture. I stand by my village read of Striker, so in a world where CadCom is an elim, than I'd bet a hefty pile of silver on Venture being an elim too.

I am slowly opening my eyes to a V/V lynch world, though. Of Hats, Devotary, Rath and Xino, I would guess Devotary for sure. She is the kind of player I imagine would not want their team risking being found out by an anonymous vote this early in the game. Especially if she wasn't the only elim that didn't vote. It would draw too much attention to a tiny pool of 4 players if half of them are evil, even if it would frame CadCom and probably get him lynched soon.

As such, my current guesses would probably be:

• CadCom, Venture, +1 of the remaining 6 who didn't vote for CadCom
• Devotary, +1 of those who voted, +1 of those who didn't vote

 

(Starting all my sentences with R’s was great fun, but it’s unfortunately starting to take too much time, and because I’d like to be direct I’m dropping it as a convention  If I had more time, I’d try to stay faithful to it.)

I’m...not entirely sure I like this first paragraph from Aman, though it’s hard to explain exactly why. The wording here: 

13 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

While I love the RP, I'm hoping you'll be able to manage something similar this game so I can remove you from my suspicions.

Seems a little too...quid pro quo, for a lack of a better term—while Aman is encouraging analysis, I’ve often found the sentiment of “do this specifically and I’ll stop suspecting you” to be an Eliminator one. More specifically, it’s easy to envision an Elim!Aman trying to pocket a village!CadCom whose lynch would reflect poorly on him by “saving” him from suspicion. If none of this makes sense, I blame my four hours of sleep  

I’m glad there weren’t any Voices in the Crowd—in general, it makes the lynch less reliable, and as I said D1 anyone using it is at least slightly suspect, as grievances can and should be aired publicly, without allowing the Eliminators the opportunity of hiding behind anonymous voting. Further, the lack of anonymous voting from the “group of four” which were active yesterday but didn’t place votes (Rath, Devotary, Xino, Hats) suggests one of a few things:

-CadCom is village, and yesterday’s lynch was V/V. The Elims in this group didn’t care enough to chip in on the lynch. 

-CadCom is evil, and most of this group made no apparent effort to save him, suggesting that the more inactive members of this group who didn’t see the end of the cycle might be evil. 

-CadCom is evil, and most or all of this group is village. 

-CadCom is evil, is the Deep One, and several votes on him were from elim teammates, so he wasn’t worried about dying. (Too much tinfoil?)

Commentary on last cycle’s lynch which is sort-of in response to Sart and Aman: 

-Araris and Sart look the cleanest from yesterday’s lynch, though I do have a bias towards trusting them because of their play styles.  

-I’m starting to veer away from my suspicion of Rath, especially now that he’s clarified his lack of vote was likely due to IRL reasons. I would like more analysis from him, but for once I’m actually getting a good tone read off his posts, skimming back through them, so he’s my largest trust aside from the other two. 

-Xino, Hats, Ventyl and Ark are tossups until we get more content from them. (Which I would very much appreciate.)

-Aman’s role in the lynch yesterday seemed fair—while I don’t necessarily agree with his most recent post, he does seem to be making genuine effort to solve the game (though for Aman this is fairly NAI). Neutral until I get more time to actually look into him properly. 

-One of Striker and Venture are likely evil, regardless of CadCom’s alignment—it’s a pet theory of mine (which I developed five minutes ago ) that if the lynch was V/V the Elims would probably want one person on either side of the lynch and another person off to the side, and if it was V/E they’d need votes to save CadCom. I suppose this analysis should make me question Sart more, but it’s again a tone thing, and Sart is putting in enough effort right now regardless of alignment that I don’t wish him dead.  

Devotary I vaguely suspect, but with no actual reasoning against her I’m dropping it unless I can find something which corroborates my gut. My suspect list is outpacing the number of Eliminators, regardless  

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m...not entirely sure I like this first paragraph from Aman, though it’s hard to explain exactly why. The wording here: 

Seems a little too...quid pro quo, for a lack of a better term—while Aman is encouraging analysis, I’ve often found the sentiment of “do this specifically and I’ll stop suspecting you” to be an Eliminator one. More specifically, it’s easy to envision an Elim!Aman trying to pocket a village!CadCom whose lynch would reflect poorly on him by “saving” him from suspicion. If none of this makes sense, I blame my four hours of sleep  

I think I make statements like this every game. It's my opinion that PoE is the most efficient way to figure out eliminator teams, and it's the way I always pursue. We can play guessing games all day trying to determine who is working with who, but I think it's much easier to simply find good reasons to rule people out as evil, rather than pursue others for doing something we find suspicious. After all, humans make mistakes, and sometimes a difference in play style between two players is all that's needed to get them butting heads. I'm asking is that if CadCom is a Villager, he does the best job he can with the time he has so the rest of us don't mislynch him, should it come to that. It's not meant to be a threat. It's just advice.

I have no idea what alignment he is, and the votes that piled up on Shanerockes could potentially implicate him as evil, which is why I think it's so important to ask him of this now. Time is ticking, someone is going to die soon, and every mislynch just makes things harder for the village.

ED1T:

For anyone who may be unfamiliar, PoE stands for Process of Elimination. 

Edited October 4, 2019 by Amanuensis

[CadCom]

I've been somewhat more busy than normal at work the last few days. I should start being able to contribute more thoughts some time within the next day or so though.

If I had to hazard a guess though, I would say that it's likely one elim voted for me, and another voted for Shane, and the third could be anywhere. 

I would like to open up some PMs, but because I've been so busy, I haven't had the opportunity to open any up. I do have at least one or two PMs from people reaching out to me, but I enjoy PMs, so I would prefer to set more up. If any of you reach out to me, I would appreciate it. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Honestly, my thought process was that I didn't want CadCom to die, I didn't really want Shanerockes to die, it didn't look like anyone else was gonna end up getting lynched that late in the cycle, and we honestly needed to lynch someone. I'm not usually a fan of D1 no lynches (as long as there's been a decent level of participation from everyone on D1), and every lynch tells us something useful. Granted it wasn't much help knowing that Shane was just the journalist, though that is one potential elim-siding neutral out of the way. Granted, this probably gives more incentive to the other neutrals to work with the elims. They don't want the village getting too far ahead of the game, and helping the elims could stop that from happening. 

The journalist had very little reason to support the elims, unless it seemed plausible all the elims would all be dead before the end of N3. The bounty hunter and the criminal just want the game to go on for a while, and would support whichever side is losing if possible. Those two favour the village in that they can win by killing elims so long as they've failed their win condition.

6 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

On that note, though, I'm surprised we didn't see any ViaC's at all. If I were an elim and I saw a V/V lynch unfolding, I'd consider using an anonymous vote to mess with things further. Especially this early in the game when there's more cover for the cultists. That either suggests they want us to think they don't care about this lynch, that they were unable to put in an anonymous vote because they already voted, they were too paranoid of getting caught if they didn't vote, or they just weren't around during those last few hours of the turn.

ViaC does have that 20% failure chance. I expected Founder vote manipulation for elims wanting to mess with the lynch regardless of CadCom's alignment, either to save him or frame him, but it doesn't appear we saw that either. Enough vote manipulation is out there that 4-3 isn't assured survival. Even if CadCom was the Deep One and didn't die, having to claim silver bones wouldn't be particularly helpful for long term survival. That brings us back to the Founder's 20% action failure chance.

[Araris Valerian]

6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Commentary on last cycle’s lynch which is sort-of in response to Sart and Aman: 

-Araris and Sart look the cleanest from yesterday’s lynch, though I do have a bias towards trusting them because of their play styles.  

-Aman’s role in the lynch yesterday seemed fair—while I don’t necessarily agree with his most recent post, he does seem to be making genuine effort to solve the game (though for Aman this is fairly NAI). Neutral until I get more time to actually look into him properly. 

-One of Striker and Venture are likely evil, regardless of CadCom’s alignment—it’s a pet theory of mine (which I developed five minutes ago ) that if the lynch was V/V the Elims would probably want one person on either side of the lynch and another person off to the side, and if it was V/E they’d need votes to save CadCom. I suppose this analysis should make me question Sart more, but it’s again a tone thing, and Sart is putting in enough effort right now regardless of alignment that I don’t wish him dead.  

Just a quick thought here, mostly in response to this last paragraph. If the lynch was V/V, then which of myself and Aman do you think is the elim that voted on Cadcom?

I think I’m currently leaning towards a V/V lynch. Looking back, I think an elim!Cadcom would have tried to respond more than he did. I think I agree then with suspicion of players that voted on Shane. Given the small size of this game, elim!Venture could have broken the tie in order to throw suspicion on Cadcom, leading to 2 mislynches.

I’d prefer to see the outcome of the night cycle before I do more analysis.

[+ILuvHats]

Rev. Pimple ran through barely lit streets, breathing heavily. This last day had been a nightmare. Bishop Everhard had called all hands on deck to try to calm the growing mobs. It had been to little avail. Pimple wanted to punch a wall right about now. Nobody had listened to him. Nobody! He had tried talking sense to men gathering pitchforks and knives. He had tried screaming at them. Of course, they simply turned on him, and it was fortunate Pimple was a fast runner. Apparently the local journalist was not so lucky. He couldn't say he knew them, since they weren't the type of person to come to worship, but still, their death filled Pimple with a whirl of emotions. Horror at the atrocity committed by the community he thought he had known, had thought were kind, loving people. Or at least as kind as anybody could be who struggled to survive in the Forests of Hell. Fear and dread that it so easily could have been him, lying on the street in a pool of his own blood, body ripped and torn by grasping hands and face mutilated beyond recognition. But most of all, he felt rage at how helpless he had been. He hadn't changed anything. Maybe Mother had been right. Maybe he was a failure.

Pimple shook his head, finally noticing he had arrived at the meeting place. Despite how late it was, he knocked, hoping somebody might have stayed behind. No answer. But the door had been left unlocked, so he went in anyways. It looked like everybody had left in a hurry, probably after they'd heard of the lynching. Food remained uneaten along the buffet table, and chairs were lying in small groups of three or four. Pimple sighed, then walked over to the buffet table to get a plate of cold mac and cheese. He'd only met two others before he had to leave, Tim and the so-called Lord Ghent. Perhaps he should search one of them out this night? Pimple longed to simply climb into his bed tucked away upstairs in the chapel, but as the delegate from the Church of the God Beyond, he should probably learn what conclusions they had come to at the meeting. Tim had seemed a bit clueless, so maybe he should search out Lord Ghent. The man had mentioned staying at an inn only a few blocks away. Despite seeming a private person, Pimple was sure Lord Ghent was reasonable enough to take a few minutes to fill him in, as long as he explained his absence. Well, no use delaying. Time to head out.

---

Seriously, I'm so sorry I haven't been active much so far. Life's been a bit crazier than I expected these last few days. Just wanted to let everyone know that I'm still following what's going on. Considering how new I am, I probably won't participate in the strategizing too much yet. Maybe after re-reading the rules, and continuing to see everybody else's opinions, I'll write up a post next cycle about my thoughts. For now, I'll just sit by and keep doing some RP now and then.

[StrikerEZ]

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

We know about the Founder's ability, after all, and there's no way the elims could know if any villagers would use Voice in a Crowd, so it would be risky not to act for their teammate.

Technically speaking, one of the elims could've had a PM with a villager who told them they were gonna ViaC. But still, I see your point.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The journalist had very little reason to support the elims, unless it seemed plausible all the elims would all be dead before the end of N3. The bounty hunter and the criminal just want the game to go on for a while, and would support whichever side is losing if possible. Those two favour the village in that they can win by killing elims so long as they've failed their win condition.

That's definitely true, and I hadn't thought of that. I'm just so used to assuming neutral=anti-village and anti-elim, I was making that assumption for the neutrals this game. As long as the village doesn't immediately start killing tons of elims this early in the game, I'm pretty sure the remaining neutrals will probably help us more than the elims.

[Elandera]

There is approximately one hour left in this turn. Get your actions in!

 

EDIT:

That's the end of this turn. The next one will be posted shortly!

Edited October 4, 2019 by Elandera

[Elandera]

Night was a torment unto itself. The dreams, the dream, had begun to dominate Rowley’s waking hours as well as his sleeping ones. He’d begun to dread sleeping, staying awake long into the night. So when someone pounded at the door, he was already awake to answer. When he opened it he was greeted with the sight of one of the Fort Folk, her face dark and frantic. 

“There’s been another of them, the killings.”

“Who? Where?”

“I, I don’t know his name, but down by the library.”

Rowley shoved past the women, hurrying down the stairs, onto the dark streets of Innsmouth. The quicker he got there, the less the scene would be disturbed. He was so close to translating the text of the ritual. Just a few fragments more and he would have it.

But he could not run.

Around him shades lingered, drifting in the air. Even as passed them, he flinched, his dreams coming back to him. As he neared the oaken library, surprisingly large for a fort the size of Innsmouth, he could see the cluster of torches held by those surrounding the body. He passed over a large circle of silver dust, some parts already blackened by shades, and pushed through the people. Another circle of silver dust surrounded a figure on the ground, and the bloody scrawl surrounding him. He crouched down, carefully memorizing the shapes. As he did so, he looked into the eyes of the victim, into the wound on the forehead that the source of the blood.

Eyes, staring glassily forward, blinked. His arms suddenly jerked into motion and from his fingers slipped a scrap of black cloth. Rowley picked it up off of the ground and then turned to the person next to him.

“He’s alive!” Rowley yelled. The man as if in response to his yell let out a scream. And it was echoed far in the distance.

---

Araris Valerian was attacked but survived!
Fifth Scholar has gone insane!

Rule Clarification/Changes

Due to a mistake, the wording of Whisper to the Wind is being changed. See below:

• Send an anonymous PM during the Day Turn to one player, to be sent at the end of that turn.

Player List

Spoiler

1. Xinoehp512 - Enasni
2. Rathmaskal - Rathinal Maskworth
3. Fifth Scholar - Ruthful
4. Cadmium Compounder - Tim
5. Araris Valerian - Fade
6. shanerockes Journalist
7. Amanuensis - Innocent
8. Butt Ad Venture - Patrick Punnington
9. StrikerEZ - Mr. Freegift
10. Ventyl - Nogard fo Redro
11. ILuvHats - Kill-sin Pimple
12. Sart - Mindful
13. Ark1002 - Arr K. Thousantoo
14. Devotary of Spontaneity - Lord Ghent

This turn will end on Sunday, October 6 at 12 p.m. PST

Edited October 4, 2019 by Elandera

[CadCom]

Ok, so there's definitely some information we can process here, though it is buried a bit further.

For instance, we can confirm neither Araris nor fifth scholar are the Founder or the Deep one. It's not a hard clear, because there is still another role, but it is definitely a soft-clear. 

I am trying to find out what else would have caused Araris to survive, and what I can come up with is an Elder sign pendant, unless I'm missing a role, so we can assume that Araris had an Elder sign pendant. 

This means it's either a lucky attack, or it was orchestrated, for the purposes of pulling a WGG. I'm leaning more towards the fact that Araris just got lucky to have the Elder sign pendant. 

I'll try to piece together more when I have more time.  

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I am trying to find out what else would have caused Araris to survive, and what I can come up with is an Elder sign pendant, unless I'm missing a role, so we can assume that Araris had an Elder sign pendant. 

This means it's either a lucky attack, or it was orchestrated, for the purposes of pulling a WGG. I'm leaning more towards the fact that Araris just got lucky to have the Elder sign pendant. 

Silver bones is the other thing which could have allowed Araris to survive. Fifth can tell us if his insanity was likely the result of Dagon/Unforgettable Horrors or a failed Discover the Hidden to potentially find out whether the Deep One is using their ability.

[Araris Valerian]

I had some Bones.

[CadCom]

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Silver bones is the other thing which could have allowed Araris to survive. Fifth can tell us if his insanity was likely the result of Dagon/Unforgettable Horrors or a failed Discover the Hidden to potentially find out whether the Deep One is using their ability.

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I had some Bones.

Which would mean you went insane for another reason? because getting attacked with silver bones does not trigger broken survivors.

 

Edit: I also meant to quote Araris

Edited October 4, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Which would mean you went insane for another reason? because getting attacked with silver bones does not trigger broken survivors.

I apologise, this was my mistake. @Araris Valerian, you are not insane. The write-up will be fixed. 

[+ILuvHats]

9 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I apologise, this was my mistake. @Araris Valerian, you are not insane. The write-up will be fixed. 

So I guess it wasn't the Gravedigger, right? If I understand how their attack works, when they attack a Fort Folk, that player is driven insane even if the attack fails. And I don't think there are any items that prevent players from going insane. So that means that the culprit was either the Bounty Hunter or an Elim. Or a hidden role. 

[CadCom]

5 minutes ago, ILuvHats said:

So I guess it wasn't the Gravedigger, right? If I understand how their attack works, when they attack a Fort Folk, that player is driven insane even if the attack fails. And I don't think there are any items that prevent players from going insane. So that means that the culprit was either the Bounty Hunter or an Elim. Or a hidden role. 

My guess is that it was the elim attack/sacrifice, then Araris had Silver bones. Potentially it could have been the bounty hunter, but the bounty hunter only has a limited number of attacks (IIRC) and needs to hit a certain amount of specific roles. Shooting off wildly is a risky move for the bounty hunter, therefore, it's likely that they would take time to make educated guesses as to who they believe people are.

 

[Sart]

Bad news. I'll be without internet from Saturday to Monday. I'll try to still comment on mobile, but I make no promises.

Mindful stared at the note she had been given.

Quote

"Please join our cult. No, not that cult. We are a different cult. We just want everyone to be at peace. Do not question this. We have cookies."

Mindful had never heard of such malarkey. They were already dealing with one cult. They didn't need to be dealing with a second one. Who wrote this? She turned the note over.

Quote

Innocent's (Amanuensis's) To-Do List:

1. Start brand new, way better cult.
2. Convert rest of village
3. ????
4. Profit

Well, that explained that. Mindful wasn't sure what was going on, but she was pretty sure Innocent (Amanuensis) wasn't a villager. Although, considering the contents of the letter, he probably wasn't killing anyone. Still, it was enough to warrant a vote.

---------------------------

For those wondering what the heck is going on, I got a weird message from the GM stating that Aman tried to convert me, but that the conversion failed. I don't know what that means, but it's something worth investigating.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Sart said:

For those wondering what the heck is going on, I got a weird message from the GM stating that Aman tried to convert me, but that the conversion failed. I don't know what that means, but it's something worth investigating.

The Dagon conversion can't be done until C3, so far as I can tell, as the conversion only goes through if the sacrificed player hasn't posted in two cycles. Of course we didn't even have a sacrifice, so it's definitely not that. Unless the elims have two different types of conversions for some reason, Aman would probably be some sort of neutral, and neutral win conditions aren't game ending so there's no real reason to kill neutrals.

@Amanuensis, why might your conversion have failed?