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Long Game 60: The Shadow Over the Forests of Hell


Elandera

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26 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Why would that mean Xin and Hats aren't evil? It would be reasonable for the elims to scan Aman while killing him, just to see who he converted. Once Aman died, he became unable to say whether or not Hats was successfully converted and it would be simple for Xino to claim regardless of either's alignment.

The Necronomicon was supposed to be handed out N2, and since nobody used it then I assumed somebody would N3.

The dumbest interpretation of the clue is that roles were handed out based on RP names. This theory is almost entirely based on the fact that we had an Arr.chaeologist, a Governor Lord Ghent, and a village Innocent. That would suggest Enasni most out of the three candidates. Not all the names fit the role though, so this is probably false.

@Rathmaskal, who did you use Mists on? If Elandera went insane from the Necronomicon, and I went insane from being attacked, it suggests that the Deep One didn't drive anyone insane, and thus there was only one active elim last night.

Because it puts Hats in the position of having to claim a daytime action scan regularly, when she doesn't actually have one (assuming she couldn't be converted as an elim, which seems like a safe bet). It's possible, but unlikely. 

Fair! I forgot that was only N3. >>

That does seem implausible. :P I like it, though. 

 

EDIT: Also, though it doesn't bear on my point, the elims wouldn't have falsely claimed Hats was converted - Aman might have been able to reach out through the Necromancer, and possibly only didn't because the Necromancer died the next turn. 

Edited by Elbereth
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7 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Because it puts Hats in the position of having to claim a daytime action scan regularly, when she doesn't actually have one (assuming she couldn't be converted as an elim, which seems like a safe bet). It's possible, but unlikely. 

If Hats was an attempted convert, waiting for Aman to claim in a Necromancer PM wasn't going to do hats or Xino any good. There's nothing too much be lost by claiming, although the elims did know who the Necromancer was and would have killed CadCom before he could relay a message from Aman if Hats was evil.

@Rathmaskal, you might as well retract your vote. If you're a villager, your vote isn't going to do any good, and it could be harmful if the Founder is the only elim active enough to vote. The Founder can shift a vote, but cannot touch a no-vote. It's unclear whether we have a Founder, but we might as well be cowardly and hope we don't reach the vote minimum.

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3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Hats was an attempted convert, waiting for Aman to claim in a Necromancer PM wasn't going to do hats or Xino any good. There's nothing too much be lost by claiming, although the elims did know who the Necromancer was and would have killed CadCom before he could relay a message from Aman if Hats was evil.

True. I suppose that makes it much less certain, though I’d still probably bet on Rath being evil if I had to. (Especially as the elims seem to have at least one consistently active member, and Xino and Hats have both been pretty spotty.)

Also, the fact that Rath didn’t initially specify his target for Mists of Releh like he did for Discover the Hidden makes me feel like it’s a false claim and he didn’t realize it was a targeted action (which he might not have if he just skimmed through looking at insanity chances). 

EDIT: Also, even if there isn’t much to be lost by claiming (which isn’t true if they knew Aman wouldn’t be able to get a message through), there isn’t really anything to be gained? Xino didn’t have to say what  he’d done that night. Plenty of people didn’t. The only thing I can see is trying to make people think they’re not evil together (in which case, well done?), but that doesn’t seem worth it to me. 

Edited by Elbereth
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Rathinald here.

~~

14 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@Rathmaskal, who did you use Mists on? If Elandera went insane from the Necronomicon, and I went insane from being attacked, it suggests that the Deep One didn't drive anyone insane, and thus there was only one active elim last night.

As I had mentioned in thread, I was just going to use on you or Venture since it was a fairly safe play...  I used on Venture and redirected to myself.

3 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Also, the fact that Rath didn’t initially specify his target for Mists of Releh like he did for Discover the Hidden makes me feel like it’s a false claim and he didn’t realize it was a targeted action (which he might not have if he just skimmed through looking at insanity chances).

No, I was just returning information that had already been shared in thread.

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@Rathmaskal, you might as well retract your vote. If you're a villager, your vote isn't going to do any good, and it could be harmful if the Founder is the only elim active enough to vote. The Founder can shift a vote, but cannot touch a no-vote. It's unclear whether we have a Founder, but we might as well be cowardly and hope we don't reach the vote minimum.

Like I said, I'm thinking that Hats is the most likely Founder and Hats hasn't been in thread in quite some time.  A no-lynch today is almost as bad as a mislynch.

Right now, with 5 players, we're at 3-2 village.  If we don't get a good lynch off today, the night kill comes in and I'm assuming we lose at 2-2?  Basically, if there was an active Founder, I'm pretty sure the game would have been called as soon as you went insane this round.  (Or maybe regardless?)

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2 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Like I said, I'm thinking that Hats is the most likely Founder and Hats hasn't been in thread in quite some time.  A no-lynch today is almost as bad as a mislynch.

Right now, with 5 players, we're at 3-2 village.  If we don't get a good lynch off today, the night kill comes in and I'm assuming we lose at 2-2?  Basically, if there was an active Founder, I'm pretty sure the game would have been called as soon as you went insane this round.  (Or maybe regardless?)

It is not actually possible to get a successful lynch today. A no lynch keeps our vote power high enough to have a lynch tomorrow. I don't think we lose at 2-2, especially if I'm still alive and sane. Tonight, we use Mists of Releh to redirect the kill with a decent chance of success, and a 40% chance of having the kill redirected to an elim.

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Rathinald here again.

~~

Hmmm, I see your point.  Hats

I guess you're saying I need to figure out who to redirect and onto whom since you and El can't perform actions, eh?  I'm not sure whether to announce in thread who I'm going to attempt to redirect though in case both of them ARE active.

Edit: Oh, it's the day turn...you'll have action for night, right?  Cool.

Edited by Rathmaskal
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Rathinald here again.

~~

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If both elims are active, there's nothing anyone else can do. Save your mists for tonight so you don't go insane, although I suppose you can't go insane. I guess you can redirect someone's action just for fun. 

I can still go insane, just not from the passive chance, and I have a reduced chance from any actions.

Edit: Ahhh, so, I think I'm seeing where the suspicion on me lies.  One of you tracked me last night - I had a Pallid Mask that I got from lynching Ark, so I said I used Mists of Releh, but you saw no action returned.  I hadn't initially been told that the mask was used, but Elandera just mentioned that to me via PM. @Devotary of Spontaneity @Elbereth  (tagged since I'm editing, so I want to make sure you see this)

Edited by Rathmaskal
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5 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Rathinald here again.

~~

I can still go insane, just not from the passive chance, and I have a reduced chance from any actions.

Edit: Ahhh, so, I think I'm seeing where the suspicion on me lies.  One of you tracked me last night - I had a Pallid Mask that I got from lynching Ark, so I said I used Mists of Releh, but you saw no action returned.  I hadn't initially been told that the mask was used, but Elandera just mentioned that to me via PM.

Mists just increases the passive chance of insanity, which you should be immune to. I did not track you last night, and if it was Venture he didn't tell me about it.

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6 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Rathinald here.

~~

As I had mentioned in thread, I was just going to use on you or Venture since it was a fairly safe play...  I used on Venture and redirected to myself.

You can’t choose who you redirect to. Surely Elandera would’ve told you that had you actually tried to put the order in. 

(Fair enough on the having said it earlier though.) 

And I clearly didn’t track you - I used the Necronomicon. My suspicion on you is just from logic, sorry. :P 

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Rathinald here.

~~

7 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

My logic is sound, meaning you’re admitting to being evil? :P Much appreciated. 

lol, no, just saying I would probably come to the same conclusion if I were you.  Devotary is hard-cleared.  There's definitely at least one elim active enough to submit kills, so assuming you are village (which you wouldn't have to consider in your logic) you're going to assume that's me since xino and Hats have both seemed to have mostly disappeared from the game.  It's close to the same reason I've come to the conclusion that Hats is The Founder.  I guess it's possible that either of the two named roles weren't actually included in the game (there doesn't seem to be a bounty hunter either, either that or you or xino has just decided to forego your wincon), which would definitely bring you back into the fold for potential elims...but I'm not sold on that unless either xino or Hats flips village.

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(((write-up to be added)))


No one has been killed. No one has gone insane.

Player List

Spoiler
  1. Xinoehp512
  2. Rathmaskal
  3. Fifth Scholar Dagon’s Will
  4. Cadmium Compounder Necromancer
  5. Araris Valerian Fort Folk
  6. shanerockes Journalist
  7. Amanuensis Government Agent
  8. Butt Ad Venture Bodyguard
  9. StrikerEZ Gravedigger
  10. Elbereth/Ventyl
  11. ILuvHats
  12. Sart Criminal Fort Folk Dagon’s Will
  13. Ark1002 Archaeologist
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity

This turn will end Wednesday, October 16 at 6 p.m. PDT.

Edited by Elandera
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Enasni lurked in the shadows beyond the flickering light of the campfire, nervously watching his last four companions.

He could hear the broken song clearly, now. What that meant, he didn't know.

And until it disappeared, he wouldn't trust anyone.

-------

Hmm, my thoughts? My scan on Aman revealed that he recruited ILuvHats. It didn't specify if the conversion was successful or not.

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