Stormlight 4 Outline Speculation

[Karger]

22 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

The reasoning is I think Navani and Dalinar will work together trying to figure out Urithiru to revive the Sibling. Alternatively Dalinar and Adolin to work together reviving Maya. 

You don't have another place for Adolin.  I find it difficult that Brandon will just drop him.

[Pathfinder]

31 minutes ago, Karger said:

You don't have another place for Adolin.  I find it difficult that Brandon will just drop him.

Not having a PoV does not mean dropping a character. Adolin can have just as much characterization (in my opinion) without PoV's as with. Jasnah had next to none, and Renarin had none for the longest time, and to me both are amazing characters. I also mentioned that I could see alternatively group two or three being Dalinar and Adolin. 

 

edit: also to add as per the below WoB, two of the characters in group one will get barely any viewpoints, and one of the two may not get any at all. So even if Adolin is included in group one, he could potentially not receive any viewpoints.

 

Brandon Sanderson

Hello, all. Time for another update on your book. (See the last update HERE, if you are interested.)

This post WILL have Oathbringer spoilers, and slight spoilers for Book Four. So if you are concerned about those things, here is the no spoiler update: I just passed the 50% mark! The book is looking good so far. Moshe had some very enthusiastic and positive things to say about the first chunk I sent him. I'm still hoping for a Christmas 2020 release.

Now, for slight spoilers. At this point, I've finished the second chunk of the book. This means I've finished viewpoint cluster two, for those who are following along. If you aren't, or if this confuses you, I whipped up a little visualization.

This book, as I've said before, starts with all the characters together--then splits into three groups of viewpoints. The first group is the largest, and the most involved, with five viewpoints characters. Two of these, however, will have only a few viewpoints (and one might just appear in other viewpoints, save for an interlude.) Really, this is the story of three characters, and forms the core arc of the book.

The second viewpoint cluster, which is the one I've now finished, follows two characters on a very involved--but more narrowly focused--plot. The final cluster takes two remaining viewpoint characters, and touches lightly upon what they are doing, without going into quite as much depth as the other two groups.

Now that group two is finished, I have turned my attention to group one--the most difficult of the sequences to write. This should take me a few more months. After that, I'll write group three and the interludes.

One issue I've been having with the book is the flashbacks. I'm not 100% sure they'll work the way I planned them to. In that case, it's possible I will toss them and doing them from Venli's viewpoint instead. I'm excited to write more Eshonai, but there's a real chance that the viewpoints will feel like fluff, as Venli is the one who knew the secrets happening behind the scenes among the Listeners at the time.

This might be a place where I have to kill my darlings and just do what makes the most sense for the narrative, even though the other way (with Eshonai having the flashbacks) always appealed to me from a "this is less expected" angle.

I can't say for certain, and my gut says that--in abstract--more people would enjoy reading about Eshonai as a character, but would find the chapters a little boring and out of place. Venli flashbacks would, instead, be filled with cosmere mysteries and answers that will be more interesting.

We'll see how it goes. I haven't written the flashbacks yet, so we'll need to see about them as I write.

Otherwise, how do we look? Well, my trip to France and Spain really took a bite out of my writing time. We're hovering right at about 30k words behind (with 200k finished of a projected 400k.) 30k behind is roughly one month behind. (We've been about this far behind since I started on the book, as touring delays continue to eat up any progress I make catching up.) Hopefully, September will involve a lot of good writing time, as I don't have any trips planned except for Dragon*Con this weekend.

Of course, come October, it's back on tour. (France and Israel this time.) The goal is still to try to finish by January. Getting halfway took basically five months, however, and there are only four months left in the year. If I don't hit January for finishing, we're likely looking at a spring 2021 release.

As always, thank you for your patience and enthusiasm. Also, as always, I promise that I do consider these goals of when to finish only to be goals--not hardfast rules. I will take the time I need to make the book great, and if it comes down to delaying the book or releasing a novel that isn't ready, we WILL delay.

I will not be sending replies to this thread to my inbox, so there's a good chance I'll miss your comments. If I do, just let me say thank you again!

Brandon

Stormlight Book Four Updates (Aug. 26, 2019) Edited September 9, 2019 by Pathfinder

[+Oltux72]

1 hour ago, Pathfinder said:

The second viewpoint cluster, which is the one I've now finished, follows two characters on a very involved--but more narrowly focused--plot. The final cluster takes two remaining viewpoint characters, and touches lightly upon what they are doing, without going into quite as much depth as the other two groups.

• They have to hold the oath gates and Urithiru
• Urithiru unless it is switched back on is problematic for reasons of logistics
• The investigators need to be good in dealing with Spren and of the brainy version
• Jasnah needs to govern. They need a place to shelter the refugeees.

It seems to me that if they send a small team to Urithiru it would have to be Shallan and Renarin

[Karger]

3 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

It seems to me that if they send a small team to Urithiru it would have to be Shallan and Renarin

To Urithiru?  Are they not already there?

[+Oltux72]

5 hours ago, Karger said:

To Urithiru?  Are they not already there?

Possibly. After months who can tell where the book will start? I am just assuming that it will be in the Shattered Plains because they need magical power to hold the oath gate against flying Fused.

That, incidentally, brings me to another point. The oath gates are a major advantage, giving them the inner lines. They can hardly give them up. Yet that dictates the points they have to defend. That may pointer to the obvious counters they can try. That is reverse the strategy of infiltration through an oath gate an burst out of a gate in Iri or  strike at Kholinar (though that would be extremely predictable).

The other strategic need they have is finding and rescuing any budding Radiant, so their forces can grow. That would involve evacuating families. Also the economy is collapsing. Securing trade is a secondary objective. Something needs to be done about the enemy fleet. Could the Stormfather be used as a weapon?

Thirdly how do the Fused get to Roshar? Do they teleport or are they walking through Shadesmar? The Radiants are a bit short on intelligence.

[Isilel]

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

The reasoning is Shallan will use illusions to allow Kaladin to infiltrate.

 

I very much hope that by this point Shallan won't be the only Lightweaver! Not counting Hoid, of course. But we know that the Cryprics are game to bond, so in a year's time there should be at least a few new members. Vathah teaming up with Kaladin could be pretty fun. Shallan's whereabouts would be determined by Sja-Anat's and by the Ghostblood shenangians, I imagine, and there is not much reason to expect the latter to stay put in Kholinar, when Odium could use her to corrupt more Oathgates.

 

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

 

Lirin will be their point of contact. Rlain will begin working within the parsh to try and bring them to the human's side, and Rlain will result in contact with Venli. At least that is my theory

 

IMHO, Venli and Rlain in book 4 will work as a two-pronged effort to lead the parsh away from Odium and the Fused: Venli with the newly awakened parshmen and Rlain with the Parshendi - both the refusniks and the duped stormforms, who are being cannibalized for the use by the Fused. I expect Rlain to eventually become a Bondsmith, but it would probably only happen in book 5, which, according to Sanderson, while a Skybreaker book, will still have a lot of Bondsmith content.

 

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

 

Group 2

Renarin

Jasnah

The reasoning is because I think they will work together to figure out what is the situation with his spren.

 

I tentatively agree that Jasnah would want to keep Renarin close and he'd want to stay with her, because he trusts her to stop him if Glys does prove to be malignant. But I am not sure that we'll be following them through their own PoVs, because Sanderson is mainly saving them for the second arc. So, we may instead see  their doings through Adolin or Shallan.

 

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Group 3

Navani

Dalinar

The reasoning is I think Navani and Dalinar will work together trying to figure out Urithiru to revive the Sibling. Alternatively Dalinar and Adolin to work together reviving Maya. 

 

 

Reviving both spren could be connected - Maya's coming first and serving as proof of concept. Not sure if there'd be a reason to elevate Navani to a PoV for this, though, when we'd be able to see pertinent bits through Dalinar. Anyway, there is Szeth, though according to this WoB, he'll be very much in the background too:

 

 

Quote

 

Brandon Sanderson (paraphrased)

Szeth starts book four in jail, Dalinar instructed him to go. Compared to Oathbringer, his role in the book is smaller, closer to book one in scope. His role in the spotlight is mostly saved for book five.

DragonCon 2019 (Aug. 31, 2019)

 

 

So, Urithiru could be Dalinar and Szeth? Or maybe Szeth doesn't  count as a PoV, if he just has one Interlude chapter or so.

 

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Not having a PoV does not mean dropping a character. Adolin can have just as much characterization (in my opinion) without PoV's as with. Jasnah had next to none, and Renarin had none for the longest time, and to me both are amazing characters.

 

Yes, but I feel that Jasnah and Renarin may "know too much"(tm). I mean, we didn't even learn what happened in her confrontation with the highspren in Shadesmar, which was enticingly teased at the very end of WoR, because  the author presumably decided that it would spoil some surprises. Ditto Renarin's visions of possible futures. So, it makes sense to mostly show the 2 of them through somebody else's eyes.

 

14 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Venli flashbacks would, instead, be filled with cosmere mysteries and answers that will be more interesting.

 

Not quite on topic, but isn't this an odd statement? I mean, Venli's PoV in OB doesn't hint at any advanced cosmere knowledge. On the contrary, she was thoroughly blindsided by cosmeric implications and consequences of her actions. I previously thought that whatever new mysteries we are going to learn through book 4 flashbacks would come from Eshonai's and Venli's mother via Listener Songs.

[Karger]

1 hour ago, Isilel said:

Not quite on topic, but isn't this an odd statement? I mean, Venli's PoV in OB doesn't hint at any advanced cosmere knowledge. On the contrary, she was thoroughly blindsided by cosmeric implications and consequences of her actions. I previously thought that whatever new mysteries we are going to learn through book 4 flashbacks would come from Eshonai's and Venli's mother via Listener Songs.

You mean the songs that Eshonai refused to memorize?  Also Venli is working with Ulim who has qute a bit of intell and is working with an interesting magic system that we know very little about.

[Pathfinder]

16 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

• They have to hold the oath gates and Urithiru
• Urithiru unless it is switched back on is problematic for reasons of logistics
• The investigators need to be good in dealing with Spren and of the brainy version
• Jasnah needs to govern. They need a place to shelter the refugeees.

It seems to me that if they send a small team to Urithiru it would have to be Shallan and Renarin

That is why I considered potentially Dalinar and Navani as the prevailing theory (though not confirmed) is that Urithiru is a giant fabrial powered by the 3rd bondsmith. I figured Navani would be the most interested in researching it, and potentially even bonding it, and Dalinar already being a bondsmith could assist, taking an interest in the things she loves, unlike Gavilar. Though I could see Jasnah and Renarin working together on it, while Dalinar and Adolin work on his shardblade. The reasoning for that is because of a personal theory that Dalinar can infuse Maya with investiture, bridging the gap, and helping heal what was torn out. 

7 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Possibly. After months who can tell where the book will start? I am just assuming that it will be in the Shattered Plains because they need magical power to hold the oath gate against flying Fused.

Theoretically as long as they keep the associated oathgate locked, they would not have to worry about further incursions on either side of the war. The reason the fused were able to attack in Oathbringer was because either Malata unlocked it, or they used the honorblade that was stolen to unlock it, enabling the fused to teleport in. 

Quote

That, incidentally, brings me to another point. The oath gates are a major advantage, giving them the inner lines. They can hardly give them up. Yet that dictates the points they have to defend. That may pointer to the obvious counters they can try. That is reverse the strategy of infiltration through an oath gate an burst out of a gate in Iri or  strike at Kholinar (though that would be extremely predictable).

Now having stated the above (where I mention the locking mechanism), I whole heartily agree the oathgates will be both a major advantage and disadvantage with focus on attacking and defending. Instant transportation from one side of Roshar to another is too great an ability to ignore. 

Quote

The other strategic need they have is finding and rescuing any budding Radiant, so their forces can grow. That would involve evacuating families. Also the economy is collapsing. Securing trade is a secondary objective. Something needs to be done about the enemy fleet. Could the Stormfather be used as a weapon?

Interesting thoughts. The fused are certainly already acting in opposition to these points. They are watching the humans closely for budding radiants, so evacuating them quickly as they arise would be paramount. Although it would not be an instant fix, I think Dalinar's recharge powers will do much to help maintain the economy by giving the radiants a means to use their powers to help maintain Urithiru till it is awoken (soulcasting for food, regrowth for healing and increased food generation and so on). The everstorm is already clearly being used as a weapon (lightning strikes focused on specific areas), so I do not think it would be far fetched at all regarding the highstorm, though the stormfather might be against the idea. 

Quote

Thirdly how do the Fused get to Roshar? Do they teleport or are they walking through Shadesmar? The Radiants are a bit short on intelligence.

Every time that is mentioned, I end up picturing the dragon riders of pern with the thread. That does nothing to answer your questions, but I like the imagery. 

3 hours ago, Isilel said:

I very much hope that by this point Shallan won't be the only Lightweaver! Not counting Hoid, of course. But we know that the Cryprics are game to bond, so in a year's time there should be at least a few new members. Vathah teaming up with Kaladin could be pretty fun. Shallan's whereabouts would be determined by Sja-Anat's and by the Ghostblood shenangians, I imagine, and there is not much reason to expect the latter to stay put in Kholinar, when Odium could use her to corrupt more Oathgates.

Oh I am sure there will be more lightweavers, I totally agree with you, though Sja-Anat's location I think differently. At the very least I think it is safe to say till Shallan makes contact, Sja-Anat will not be hanging out at Urithiru, so for me it would not make sense to group her with people that potentially would be staying there. The WoB state that this book is mainly about these three main characters. We know for a fact that it is Venli's book, so that says to me she is one of those three main characters which also means it is unlikely (to me) that group one would be hanging out at Urithiru. Finally because of the reading, I feel we know Kaladin won't be at Urithiru, that makes three. So for myself, I feel Shallan, Kaladin, and Venli have to be in group 1. Adolin does not make sense to me because I do not see what he could bring to such an endeavor. He is a ruling highprince now. On one hand it could be said he would come with to help gather the people of Kholinar in exile, but most of his people are located at Urithiru, needing him there to rule. Lirin I feel is among the group because of the other reading. That makes 4. Lift I don't see helping. Renarin I feel needs to be back at Urithiru working on his abilities, and understanding Urithiru with Jasnah. It was mentioned earlier via WoP that the lack of Rlain in Oathbringer was intentional, so I feel this would be a perfect time for Rlain to come and try to help his people. So that is why the five I came to were Kaladin, Venli, Shallan, Lirin, Rlain. Everyone is of course welcome to disagree and have their own picks, but those are mine and the reason behind them. 

Quote

IMHO, Venli and Rlain in book 4 will work as a two-pronged effort to lead the parsh away from Odium and the Fused: Venli with the newly awakened parshmen and Rlain with the Parshendi - both the refusniks and the duped stormforms, who are being cannibalized for the use by the Fused. I expect Rlain to eventually become a Bondsmith, but it would probably only happen in book 5, which, according to Sanderson, while a Skybreaker book, will still have a lot of Bondsmith content.

That is why I include them, in my opinion, in group 1

Quote

I tentatively agree that Jasnah would want to keep Renarin close and he'd want to stay with her, because he trusts her to stop him if Glys does prove to be malignant. But I am not sure that we'll be following them through their own PoVs, because Sanderson is mainly saving them for the second arc. So, we may instead see  their doings through Adolin or Shallan.

We got bits of Jasnah and Renarin in Oathbringer regarding Renarin's spren, I figured this would be a natural extension of that. As it would be focusing on the present, and working out what to do in the future, I don't think it would take away from digging into both characters in the backhalf, which will focus on their individual pasts. But I am not overly attached to them being PoV, So as I said I could easily see Dalinar and Navani, or Dalinar and Adolin instead. 

Quote

Reviving both spren could be connected - Maya's coming first and serving as proof of concept. Not sure if there'd be a reason to elevate Navani to a PoV for this, though, when we'd be able to see pertinent bits through Dalinar. Anyway, there is Szeth, though according to this WoB, he'll be very much in the background too:

See I guess that is the difference between me and a lot of other people, apparently you included. I don't see having PoV or not having PoV, as elevating or reducing a character. Navani had some PoVs in Way of Kings, Words of Radiance and Oathbringer. Didn't change her standing among the cast one whit. Renarin had none till Oathbringer. Again didn't change his standing one whit. Jasnah had none in Way of Kings, none in Words of Radiance, and a few in Oathbringer, and yet again in my opinion, didn't change her standing whatsoever. So personally I do not see why Navani continuing to get PoVs or some other characters getting them or losing them ultimately matters. I base my picks on what I feel the characters could or what I think they would be doing within the plot and at what location. Not what kind of importance getting in their head would accomplish or not, because I feel it does not affect their importance one way or the other. 

Quote

So, Urithiru could be Dalinar and Szeth? Or maybe Szeth doesn't  count as a PoV, if he just has one Interlude chapter or so.

Could be. Could be Navani and Jasnah focus on Urithiru while Dalinar and Szeth work through their history. (Btw, for some reason the website bolded that sentence, not me)

Quote

Yes, but I feel that Jasnah and Renarin may "know too much"(tm). I mean, we didn't even learn what happened in her confrontation with the highspren in Shadesmar, which was enticingly teased at the very end of WoR, because  the author presumably decided that it would spoil some surprises. Ditto Renarin's visions of possible futures. So, it makes sense to mostly show the 2 of them through somebody else's eyes.

Like I said earlier in this post, I think working through Renarin's abilities, and Jasnah's feelings for her cousin would not reveal anything about the past because it would focus more on the present and how it effects the future. Their flashblacks to me would still remain quite mysterious, but at the same time enable the tidbits we have been getting across the prior three books. But once again, I am not overly attached. I am fine with it being through other parties, such as Navani or Dalinar. Those two would make sense to me to be interested in, and have the knowledge to assist/look into. 

Quote

Not quite on topic, but isn't this an odd statement? I mean, Venli's PoV in OB doesn't hint at any advanced cosmere knowledge. On the contrary, she was thoroughly blindsided by cosmeric implications and consequences of her actions. I previously thought that whatever new mysteries we are going to learn through book 4 flashbacks would come from Eshonai's and Venli's mother via Listener Songs.

Personally I think it means seeing Venli meeting the voidspren, learning about the transition. Learning about the voidforms, and how to bring about the desolation. Also might involve learning the voidbringer's version of the past that she might learn from the voidspren. 

1 hour ago, Karger said:

You mean the songs that Eshonai refused to memorize?  Also Venli is working with Ulim who has qute a bit of intell and is working with an interesting magic system that we know very little about.

I agree. 

[Karger]

21 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

The everstorm is already clearly being used as a weapon (lightning strikes focused on specific areas), so I do not think it would be far fetched at all regarding the highstorm, though the stormfather might be against the idea. 

The Stormfather will not even say when the next highstrom is happening.  I doubt he will allow a feeble human to dictate how he does his job.

22 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

Every time that is mentioned, I end up picturing the dragon riders of pern with the thread. That does nothing to answer your questions, but I like the imagery. 

Agreed.  Also a great reference.

[+Oltux72]

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

That is why I considered potentially Dalinar and Navani as the prevailing theory (though not confirmed) is that Urithiru is a giant fabrial powered by the 3rd bondsmith. I figured Navani would be the most interested in researching it, and potentially even bonding it, and Dalinar already being a bondsmith could assist, taking an interest in the things she loves, unlike Gavilar.

Dalinar, to put it bluntly, is not a scholar or a scientist. And I really doubt he would send his Radiants into danger while quietly researching a building. New Radiants need to be trained and organized. Navani is a logical choice, but you need at least one Surgebinder. As Jasnah is unavailable that means Shallan or Renarin. Who else could do it?

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Though I could see Jasnah and Renarin working together on it, while Dalinar and Adolin work on his shardblade. The reasoning for that is because of a personal theory that Dalinar can infuse Maya with investiture, bridging the gap, and helping heal what was torn out.

Why? This fascination with dead shard blades is highly sentimental.
That would mean that the only Bondsmith together with  a Highprince and Shard Bearer, both trained military officers, use precious time during a war of possibly annihilation to look into a feat never performed. All without clear gain for the sake of a single spren. This is foolish.

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Theoretically as long as they keep the associated oathgate locked, they would not have to worry about further incursions on either side of the war. The reason the fused were able to attack in Oathbringer was because either Malata unlocked it, or they used the honorblade that was stolen to unlock it, enabling the fused to teleport in.

• the Radiants could never be sure of that
• Odium certainly has better understanding of oath gates than the Radiants
• they still have that honor blade

No, I am sorry, every oath gate they keep has to have a guard force. This is not entirely negative. The Fused are clearly more mobile. Making them attack fortified positions is an advantage.

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Interesting thoughts. The fused are certainly already acting in opposition to these points. They are watching the humans closely for budding radiants, so evacuating them quickly as they arise would be paramount.

On second thought it is the second best option. Surgebinders are distributed in a highly skewed manner. The best way would actually be to get the Spren to concentrate on candidates under safe conditions, like Kaladin is doing with his squires. That points to sending emissaries to them. A secondary objective would be information.

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Although it would not be an instant fix, I think Dalinar's recharge powers will do much to help maintain the economy by giving the radiants a means to use their powers to help maintain Urithiru till it is awoken (soulcasting for food, regrowth for healing and increased food generation and so on).

Not really. There are very few oath gates. Fewer still operational and in friendly hands. Roshar has no cheap form of land transport. A naval response of some kind will be needed.

3 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Every time that is mentioned, I end up picturing the dragon riders of pern with the thread. That does nothing to answer your questions, but I like the imagery. 

It is a question Dalinar and Adolin (and the Highprinces and Azish generals) will be asking. In addition Odium's forces are unlikely to take the perpendicularity just for fun. I think no good (or even average) military leader can leave this question unaddressed. Running up a mountain where you are expected does not look like a good idea. Again an approach through Shadesmar looks like a more sensible approach.

 

[Pathfinder]

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Dalinar, to put it bluntly, is not a scholar or a scientist. And I really doubt he would send his Radiants into danger while quietly researching a building. New Radiants need to be trained and organized. Navani is a logical choice, but you need at least one Surgebinder. As Jasnah is unavailable that means Shallan or Renarin. Who else could do it?

Dalinar as a bondsmith, bonded to the stormfather, a being who knew the sibling and what happened to it, coupled with his powers regarding connection I think is qualified to work with Navani, who is a scholar regarding the potential fabrial/spren that is Urithiru. Considering the continual survival of the population of Urithiru is dependent on getting it working again, personally I feel it would be important to rate high on Dalinar's to do list. Finally as per the structure suggested and put into place by Elhokar, Dalinar is the ruler of Urithiru. Just like as a highprince it was his responsibility to govern the warcamps and not just the war, so too (to me) it would be Dalinar's responsibility to see to the overall function of Urithiru. Jasnah oversees the Alethi. Adolin oversees whats left of his princedom. So to put it bluntly back, you are entitled to your opinion, but it is not a cut and dry. 

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Why? This fascination with dead shard blades is highly sentimental.
That would mean that the only Bondsmith together with  a Highprince and Shard Bearer, both trained military officers, use precious time during a war of possibly annihilation to look into a feat never performed. All without clear gain for the sake of a single spren. This is foolish.

I already explained my theory regarding Dalinar, Adolin, and Maya revival at length in other threads. I will give the bullet points, but if you really want the full theory I will link you to where I go into it further elsewhere. I do not want to detract or derail this thread on the subject of Maya and Adolin

1. Dalinar already sensed Oathbringer gaining sapience

2. Dalinar's entire schtick, as per the stormfather is bonds, connection, and uniting

3. When Dalinar pulled all three realms together Maya reacted, as well as Taln

4. Dalinar and Adolin working together in their capacities (high king of Urithiru and highprince) could result in interactions that might trigger further reaction from Maya. Over time little bits here and there build up, till they try it out. 

5. The gain is the potential revival of all the past killed spren, which could lead to convincing the hold out spren that hate humans to join up and bond radiants, as well as give additional spren to bond even more radiants. 

 

I would appreciate if you do not refer to my theory as foolish. You are perfectly entitled to disagree. To each their own. 

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

• the Radiants could never be sure of that
• Odium certainly has better understanding of oath gates than the Radiants
• they still have that honor blade

No, I am sorry, every oath gate they keep has to have a guard force. This is not entirely negative. The Fused are clearly more mobile. Making them attack fortified positions is an advantage.

It is not a case of radiants being sure or not. It literally happened. As in those were the events that transpired at the end of Oathbringer. They cannot transport to oathgates that are locked. A sprenblade or honorblade is needed to unlock from both sides. The oathgate was unlocked from Urithiru which allowed the fused to attack. That is literally what happened in the book. 

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

On second thought it is the second best option. Surgebinders are distributed in a highly skewed manner. The best way would actually be to get the Spren to concentrate on candidates under safe conditions, like Kaladin is doing with his squires. That points to sending emissaries to them. A secondary objective would be information.

I would say the spren bond in a more personal manner than skewed. 

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

Not really. There are very few oath gates. Fewer still operational and in friendly hands. Roshar has no cheap form of land transport. A naval response of some kind will be needed.

What does that have to do with soulcasters making food and water, and regrowth increasing food supply via growing fields to assist in the economy?

26 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

It is a question Dalinar and Adolin (and the Highprinces and Azish generals) will be asking. In addition Odium's forces are unlikely to take the perpendicularity just for fun. I think no good (or even average) military leader can leave this question unaddressed. Running up a mountain where you are expected does not look like a good idea. Again an approach through Shadesmar looks like a more sensible approach.

Have you had a chance to hear the latest reading from Rhythm of War?

[+Oltux72]

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

Dalinar as a bondsmith, bonded to the stormfather, a being who knew the sibling and what happened to it, coupled with his powers regarding connection I think is qualified to work with Navani, who is a scholar regarding the potential fabrial/spren that is Urithiru.

That argument can be made. But then why two people?

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

1. Dalinar already sensed Oathbringer gaining sapience

2. Dalinar's entire schtick, as per the stormfather is bonds, connection, and uniting

He is also a leader and a soldier.

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

3. When Dalinar pulled all three realms together Maya reacted, as well as Taln

4. Dalinar and Adolin working together in their capacities (high king of Urithiru and highprince) could result in interactions that might trigger further reaction from Maya. Over time little bits here and there build up, till they try it out. 

5. The gain is the potential revival of all the past killed spren, which could lead to convincing the hold out spren that hate humans to join up and bond radiants, as well as give additional spren to bond even more radiants. 

A lot of "could". You could also have

• one shard blade less
• an insane spren knowing a lot of your secrets
• a spren that keeps telling everybody about centuries of torture

So a mere hope against the certainty of taking a lot of time they can ill afford to spend.

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

It is not a case of radiants being sure or not. It literally happened. As in those were the events that transpired at the end of Oathbringer. They cannot transport to oathgates that are locked.

So far. This is taking a single event the people who have to act on it cannot perfectly know as the absolute rule for the future. A responsible commander cannot do that.

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

What does that have to do with soulcasters making food and water, and regrowth increasing food supply via growing fields to assist in the economy?

A soulcaster or user of Regrowth is only useful if you can get what he produces to the hungry people. You may notice that the majority of oath gates were located in cities with a port. That is for the simple reason that you need ships to transport goods in bulk. Hence the Radiants need naval supremacy.

17 minutes ago, Pathfinder said:

Have you had a chance to hear the latest reading from Rhythm of War?

I read it. If you are referring to the prologue.

[Pathfinder]

5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

That argument can be made. But then why two people?

Why five for group 1? Why not thirteen? I was merely throwing out my thoughts based on the info at hand. If it doesn't fit for you, you are perfectly entitled to feel that way. For me it works. 

5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

He is also a leader and a soldier.

A lot of "could". You could also have

• one shard blade less
• an insane spren knowing a lot of your secrets
• a spren that keeps telling everybody about centuries of torture

So a mere hope against the certainty of taking a lot of time they can ill afford to spend.

As I said, so as not to derail this thread I have included a link to the thread discussing Maya, and where I go into at length the thoughts behind and mechanics I base my theory on. Feel free to continue this with me there. Otherwise I feel it possible for Dalinar to work with Adolin to revive his blade. You do not. To each their own

 

5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

So far. This is taking a single event the people who have to act on it cannot perfectly know as the absolute rule for the future. A responsible commander cannot do that.

Not a single event. Jasnah tried to access Urithiru via an oathgate she discovered prior to the oathbringer book but was unable to because the other side (Urithiru) was locked. That is why it required them to get there from the Shattered Plains first. All the other gates were locked from Urithiru except the Shattered Plains. When they got to Urithiru, they tried to go elsewhere, but the other side was locked. Which is why Taravangian mentioned having Malata to unlock his side, Lift at Azir, and why it required Kaladin flying over to Thaylenah to unlock theirs. Both sides have to be unlocked in order to transport. If either side is locked, then transportation cannot take place. 

5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

A soulcaster or user of Regrowth is only useful if you can get what he produces to the hungry people. You may notice that the majority of oath gates were located in cities with a port. That is for the simple reason that you need ships to transport goods in bulk. Hence the Radiants need naval supremacy.

The soulcaster and regrowth I was referring to was to keep the people at Urithiru, and the Shattered Plains fed. Further, depending on how much could be produced, it could aid the recovery of Theylenah. Otherwise Theylenah and Azir have their own means of maintaining. The main issue I see is that Urithiru does not have the means to maintain the population it currently holds till it is awakened. Soulcasting and regrowth is a stop gap till then. A stop gap possible at the moment because Dalinar has a limited ability to recharge spheres. 

5 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

I read it. If you are referring to the prologue.

Then you know the brief discussion regarding the transition?

[Wander89]

 

[Isilel]

On 2.9.2019 at 5:36 PM, Karger said:

Most of the enemies the face will not be fused they will probably be warform parshmen.  It is important to recapture productive lands for economic reasons not just military ones.

 

It would be impossible for Alethi to produce anything on those lands, should they temporarily recapture them, unless they have weapons that let soldiers hold off the Fused. The reason for massive collapses of civilization during the Desolations was that you can't really hold territory against surge-binders. They can pick and chose where to raid and destroy and normal people - either human or singer, can do nothing to stop them, as we have seen with the Wall Guard. As a result, all infrastructure was thoroughly smashed at the end of a Desolation, skills lost (which worked in Fused's favor, because _they_ retained the skills and could teach them to singers again when they returned), etc. And the thing is - there were never enough surge-binders on either side to be able to effectively defend territory. Raiders can pick and chose where to strike and ensure that they always have local numerical superiority. Also, there is a voidform that can tell the future, which might help the Fused plan their attacks even better.

No, the Alethi must learn to produce on the Shattered Plains and maybe the Unclaimed Hills, instead of over-extending back into Alethkar. They need to hold the Narak Oathgate anyway and the Fused are busy training the parsh, so the long-distance strikes by them would be relatively few. This is why I think that Jasnah needs to be located on the Shattered Plains and not in Urithiru. They can't feed a whole nation-in-exile via soulcasting, because it would deplete the gemstone reserve, which they also need for their Radiants to be effective, very quickly. We don't know if the gemstones still eventually break if carefully used by the Radiants - Jasnah likely made hers break on purpose when she pretended that she had a Soulcaster back in WoK. But they might. Also, the refugees are going to come to the Shattered Plains and it wouldn't be logistically feasible  to bring all of them to Urithiru.  

Additionally, the remaining Listeners are _also_ on the Shattered Plains and their history is part of the book's focus, so interaction with them should be in the cards.  They have a method for growing food in this rather inhospitable area, that the exile Alethi could learn. Which is why I'd put Rlain there as well, rather than in Alethkar, with Kaladin.

 

On 2.9.2019 at 5:36 PM, Karger said:

True but their soldiers are much more proficient then the average parshmen who have only a year or two of sentience.  Human armies will be better trained led and organized at the lower levels which the fused might not have the numbers to supervise closely in their own armies.

 

But rushing into fighting the parshmen would only solidify the racial divide. That's how it was done during Heraldic Epochs and the False Desolation and we know that it is an ultimately losing strategy. It also fosters hatred, which benefits Odium. This time, the anti-Odium side needs to win the hearts and minds of the singers, which likely was made easier by the fact that the parshmen share cultures of the nations that they have lived amongst. I suspect Cultivation's hand in this. Kaladin's, Venli's and Rlain's arcs look to be going in that direction.

 

On 2.9.2019 at 5:36 PM, Karger said:

This is nothing like the past but I agree that newer strategies will be helpful.

 

The Fused are going to employ approaches that worked for them in the past. They are very experienced and skilled, but hopefully less capable of quickly adapting to and inventing new approaches. A lot of them being mad helps too, though they'd still be very dangerous on the battlefield and endless respawn will make up for their lacking mental faculties, IMHO.

[Karger]

6 hours ago, Isilel said:

It would be impossible for Alethi to produce anything on those lands, should they temporarily recapture them, unless they have weapons that let soldiers hold off the Fused.

Fused Raids will be problematic.  This does not mean that suing Alethi lands is impossible.  Their are limited numbers of fused and they can only cover so much teritory.  They will also be needed in the mustering equipping and training of the singer armies.

6 hours ago, Isilel said:

was that you can't really hold territory against surge-binders

You don't need to.  You just wait for their surgebinders to move in too far and then have your surgbinders kill them.  Shardbearers can't hold ground.

6 hours ago, Isilel said:

Also, there is a voidform that can tell the future, which might help the Fused plan their attacks even better.

Raiding by technological or tactically superior foes is annoying and dangerous however it is not an insurmountable problem.  Otherwise the vikings would have destroyed Britain completely.   

6 hours ago, Isilel said:

But rushing into fighting the parshmen would only solidify the racial divide. That's how it was done during Heraldic Epochs and the False Desolation and we know that it is an ultimately losing strategy. It also fosters hatred, which benefits Odium

It will also lower moral.  This does not benefit Odium.  He needs at least a few victories at some point.

[+Oltux72]

8 hours ago, Isilel said:

It would be impossible for Alethi to produce anything on those lands, should they temporarily recapture them, unless they have weapons that let soldiers hold off the Fused. The reason for massive collapses of civilization during the Desolations was that you can't really hold territory against surge-binders. They can pick and chose where to raid and destroy and normal people - either human or singer, can do nothing to stop them, as we have seen with the Wall Guard.

How hard is it to torch fields on Roshar? How dense is the vegetation?

Secondly, this of course applies both ways. What flying Fused can do, Windrunners or Skybreakers can emulate.

Thirdly, defenses can be improved. Fortifications can be roofed and archery trained.

8 hours ago, Isilel said:

 Raiders can pick and chose where to strike and ensure that they always have local numerical superiority. Also, there is a voidform that can tell the future, which might help the Fused plan their attacks even better.

Apparently Windrunners are faster. Roshar has unjammable and uninterceptable real-time communication. Air defenses can be organized.

8 hours ago, Isilel said:

But rushing into fighting the parshmen would only solidify the racial divide. That's how it was done during Heraldic Epochs and the False Desolation and we know that it is an ultimately losing strategy.

They were also fighting mortal enemies (at least for one desolation). Yes, it looks like a defensive strategy is best.
You want to improve your fortifications and make the enemy bleed. Yet, you can do something. Classsical guerilla and terrorism.

Secondly, you need to keep trade running as far as possible. Humans have the advantage of having more shipwrights. They also have superior capabilities in the area of fabrials and far more literate people. Humans can field a whole lot of spanreeds and warning fabrials. And maybe the painrial can be weaponized. Anti-air harpoons? Still, I think navally they should go on the offensive.

8 hours ago, Isilel said:

It also fosters hatred, which benefits Odium. This time, the anti-Odium side needs to win the hearts and minds of the singers, which likely was made easier by the fact that the parshmen share cultures of the nations that they have lived amongst. I suspect Cultivation's hand in this. Kaladin's, Venli's and Rlain's arcs look to be going in that direction.

Grant them lands of supplies.

2 hours ago, Karger said:

Fused Raids will be problematic.  This does not mean that suing Alethi lands is impossible.  Their are limited numbers of fused and they can only cover so much teritory.  They will also be needed in the mustering equipping and training of the singer armies.

They are immortal though. You cannot trade Surgebinder for Surgebinder. The Radiants need to find a way to fight under very favorable conditions. And spend time on weapons research. Can you trap a Fused in a gem? And can they replicate the weapon that killed a Herald? They know it is possible now.

On 9/10/2019 at 10:27 PM, Pathfinder said:

Not a single event. Jasnah tried to access Urithiru via an oathgate she discovered prior to the oathbringer book but was unable to because the other side (Urithiru) was locked. That is why it required them to get there from the Shattered Plains first. All the other gates were locked from Urithiru except the Shattered Plains. When they got to Urithiru, they tried to go elsewhere, but the other side was locked. Which is why Taravangian mentioned having Malata to unlock his side, Lift at Azir, and why it required Kaladin flying over to Thaylenah to unlock theirs. Both sides have to be unlocked in order to transport. If either side is locked, then transportation cannot take place.

Irrelevant because the Radiants cannot depend on that. Somehow Odium's forces got through. Malata was not seen unlocking the gate. Odium obviously is better at manipulating gates than the Radiants. It happened once. As long as they do not understand why it happened they have to assume it can happen again.

On 9/10/2019 at 10:27 PM, Pathfinder said:

Then you know the brief discussion regarding the transition?

No.

[Karger]

4 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

They are immortal though. You cannot trade Surgebinder for Surgebinder

Actually at a certain point I think you can.  Remember killing a Radiant does not kill the spren and spren generally weather the death of their Radiant.  Squires can be replaced fairly easily and Nightblood is capable of killing a fused permanently.  Additionally many fused will be needed for none combat duties across Roshar training singers to read and write, in command, in farming techniques and architecture.  Humans can fill these jobs with skilled people who are not surgebinders. 

[+Oltux72]

18 minutes ago, Karger said:

Actually at a certain point I think you can.  Remember killing a Radiant does not kill the spren and spren generally weather the death of their Radiant.

You lose the blade and the plate as they have to progress through the oaths.

18 minutes ago, Karger said:

Squires can be replaced fairly easily

That is possible. But when will you run out of volunteers? You cannot draft squires.

18 minutes ago, Karger said:

and Nightblood is capable of killing a fused permanently.  Additionally many fused will be needed for none combat duties across Roshar training singers to read and write, in command,

That works both ways. The Singers are gaining trained people. It will be interesting to see how many Radiants will arise.

And that leaves out another question. How many Skybreakers will fight on the Singers' side? And in which operations will they participate? Do independent Singers have an even older claim that superseeds Odium's Singers' claim? And once a Skybreaker dies, will their spren retrn to fight on Odium's side?

 

[Karger]

55 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

You lose the blade and the plate as they have to progress through the oaths.

Shrugs.  You will.  However they will be replaced as the lower level Radiants advance.

57 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

That is possible. But when will you run out of volunteers? You cannot draft squires.

Being a squire is not realy any different from being a soldier and most Lighteyes volunteer for their positions.  You will probably always have more volunteers then viable candidates anyway.

58 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

That works both ways. The Singers are gaining trained people. It will be interesting to see how many Radiants will arise.

The singers will get steadily better the longer they are awake.  However you realy can't train someone for high level command in under a decade.  Basically their is no substitute for experience no matter how good your teaching methods are.

1 hour ago, Oltux72 said:

And that leaves out another question. How many Skybreakers will fight on the Singers' side? And in which operations will they participate? Do independent Singers have an even older claim that superseeds Odium's Singers' claim? And once a Skybreaker dies, will their spren retrn to fight on Odium's side?

No idea.  However Szeth has the ability to train skybreakers just like Nale does so I assume this will even out over time.

[+Oltux72]

7 hours ago, Karger said:

Being a squire is not realy any different from being a soldier and most Lighteyes volunteer for their positions.  You will probably always have more volunteers then viable candidates anyway.

Right. This is counterintuitive. But they have the Windrunners. They could drown them in squires. Ugly strategy though.

7 hours ago, Karger said:

The singers will get steadily better the longer they are awake.  However you realy can't train someone for high level command in under a decade.  Basically their is no substitute for experience no matter how good your teaching methods are.

That raises a point. Why would Odium use corporal leaders? He has Voidspren.

7 hours ago, Karger said:

No idea.  However Szeth has the ability to train skybreakers just like Nale does so I assume this will even out over time.

How many would Nale find? And more importantly, Nale may be crazy, but he has quite some integrity. He will not force trainees to choose his side.

On 9/10/2019 at 5:12 PM, Karger said:

The Stormfather will not even say when the next highstrom is happening.  I doubt he will allow a feeble human to dictate how he does his job.

Honor did use him. The Stormfather outright said so.

On 9/10/2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

That is why I considered potentially Dalinar and Navani as the prevailing theory (though not confirmed) is that Urithiru is a giant fabrial powered by the 3rd bondsmith. I figured Navani would be the most interested in researching it, and potentially even bonding it, and Dalinar already being a bondsmith could assist, taking an interest in the things she loves, unlike Gavilar. Though I could see Jasnah and Renarin working together on it,

. There is one more point. Navani has a sphere and a trapped Unmade to research.

[Isilel]

On 10.9.2019 at 3:02 PM, Karger said:

You mean the songs that Eshonai refused to memorize?  Also Venli is working with Ulim who has qute a bit of intell and is working with an interesting magic system that we know very little about.

 

Since Eshonai is dead, her flashbacks would show the events as they happened, not as or how she remembered them, so her memorizing or not is irrelevant. We'd get whatever her mother tried to teach her word for word. Ulim told very little to Venli and mislead her when he could, which is why she expected completely different results from the stormform choir during the Battle of Narak. Basically, he only taught her to trap stormspren in gems and ther ritual that she thought would let them destroy the Alethi army, but in reality summoned the Everstorm.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 9:24 AM, Oltux72 said:

The other strategic need they have is finding and rescuing any budding Radiant, so their forces can grow. That would involve evacuating families. Also the economy is collapsing. Securing trade is a secondary objective. Something needs to be done about the enemy fleet. Could the Stormfather be used as a weapon?

Thirdly how do the Fused get to Roshar? Do they teleport or are they walking through Shadesmar? The Radiants are a bit short on intelligence.

 

Not only the budding Radiants - they need to rescue artifabrians, scholars, artisans. Their one advantage this time around is the much higher technoligical base and the fact that fabrial science was on the cusp of a major creative explosion. This  is a completely unprecedented situation, which will, hopefully, mark the transition between reliance on the few super-powered individuals, who can't be everywhere at once, to the non-powered people being able to fend off the Fused (and the voidforms?), too. Also, with the ready availability of uncomplaining, submissive slave labour abruptly drying up, they are very much motivated to design a number of labour-saving devices and means of transport.

Stormfather did say that Honor used him the same way that Odium now uses Everstorm, so Dalinar might be able to as well, at some point.

A very good point about the Fused - maybe there is a way to hold them off in Shadesmar, before they can reach Roshar and the cycle of unlimited respawn through Everstorm? It would require making alliances with intelligent spren and smoothing over the wounds of the Recreance, though.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

 Although it would not be an instant fix, I think Dalinar's recharge powers will do much to help maintain the economy by giving the radiants a means to use their powers to help maintain Urithiru till it is awoken (soulcasting for food, regrowth for healing and increased food generation and so on).

 

The stormlight is not the bottleneck, though, not after the highstorms became regular again. The gemstones are the bottleneck. Using them in Soulcaster devices eventually breaks them and it is currently unknown if the Radiants carefully infusing stormlight from them wears them out and breaks them at some point, too. Even the Radiants of the past needed to have a proper agricultural base in Urithiru, rather than rely on Soulcasting and Regrowth. Which is why Alethkar-in-exile can't stay in Urithiru, but has to move back where they can grow at least some of their food naturally. We can trust Sebarial on this, IMHO, he knows his stuff.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

So that is why the five I came to were Kaladin, Venli, Shallan, Lirin, Rlain.

 

Why would Rlain be with Kaladin, if he is working on the Listeners, who are on the Shattered Plains? Kaladin will be in Alethkar, according to one of the readings. Not to mention that while Rlain is fluent in Alethi, it is unlikely that he'd pass among the awakened parshmen, who speak it like the natives. Shallan could go either way, though personally, I find her infiltration routine much more boring than her research routine, and I also love her interactions with Jasnah, which is why my personal preference is for her to remain on the Shattered Plains and investigate the Ghostbloods, Stormseat, the Listeners, etc. I also want her to spend time with her brothers on-page, because IMHO coming clean to them will finally help her to accept and reconcile her 4th Truth.

For Alethkar, Kaladin, Venli and Lirin seem to be a lock. Moash is a strong candidate for the 4th. 5th is pretty much in the air. Adolin is a Highsprince, yes, but it didn't stop him from going on a mission before and he has an eye for military intelligence and political/administrative goals of the news order imposed by the Fused  that Kaladin would miss. It would also fit his hypothetical path of a budding Edgedancer. Also, Shallan as his wife and the more confident Renarin can temporarily hold things together for him back at the home base now.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

We got bits of Jasnah and Renarin in Oathbringer regarding Renarin's spren, I figured this would be a natural extension of that. As it would be focusing on the present, and working out what to do in the future, I don't think it would take away from digging into both characters in the backhalf, which will focus on their individual pasts.

 

My problem is that it is not just about the long ago pasts. Renarin has insights into the future, often immediate future, so it would feel very contrived to exclude them when they occur. Likewise, it felt very artificial when we learned nothing about Jasnah adventures in Shadesmar and her confrontation with the highspren in OB, after they were teased in WoR, which yes, was in immediate past, but very pertinent to the "present" events. IMHO, it is better to avoid these issues by showing these characters mostly from outside, through other PoVs.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

See I guess that is the difference between me and a lot of other people, apparently you included. I don't see having PoV or not having PoV, as elevating or reducing a character.

 

It is Sanderson's terminology and approach, though. After what happened to RJ's WoT, he is terrified of the PoV creep and so tries to limit the "main characters" (his words, not mine) to 3, with Adolin evolving into some kind of in-between figure. Personally, I prefer an ensemble cast of about 6 PoVs, with some rotation among them, so that it is not always the same people. Anyway, the problem of Jordan, Martin, etc. wasn't in introducing too many PoVs when it was warranted, but in reluctance to drop them when they have served their purpose or putting them on hiatus when there was nothing substantial for them to do in that part of the plot. That's where the bloat starts, ahem.

And yes, you can have important, fleshed-out characters who are not PoVs, but they need to be observed by PoVs for that to happen. Navani is joined at the hip to Dalinar, so that for the most part we can follow her doings through his PoV.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 4:46 PM, Pathfinder said:

 Personally I think it means seeing Venli meeting the voidspren, learning about the transition. Learning about the voidforms, and how to bring about the desolation. Also might involve learning the voidbringer's version of the past that she might learn from the voidspren.

 

She only learned about _one_ voidform, though and only a Herald can cause a Desolation. She caused Everstorm, yes, but she didn't know what she was doing, so I don't see where new cosmere information would come into it. But I am ready to be surprised.

 

On 10.9.2019 at 8:57 PM, Oltux72 said:

Why? This fascination with dead shard blades is highly sentimental.

 

Couldn't disagree more, since learning the process of reviving a dead blade would be key to awakening the Sibling and to convincing the reluctant Nahel spren peoples and individuals to ally with humans again. Restoring one cultivationspren is by itself not all that important, but the implications and the potential pay-off would be huge indeed. As you yourself noted, convincing the spren to bond in numbers should be a priority. And if Adolin is Edgedancer matierial, he is going to try to restore Maya regardless of the logical considerations of effort spent versus gain.

 

12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

How hard is it to torch fields on Roshar?

 

As Dalinar's first flashback showed, not very. And that's the kind of thing that I expect Fused raids to do routinely, if the Alethi try to take back Alethkar. And yes, of course, the Windrunners can retaliate - though currently the Fused have numerical superiority, that's how civilizations were smashed back to stone age during the Desolations. It didn't work great for the peoples of Roshar back them and there is no reason to think that it would have better results in the present.

 

12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Thirdly, defenses can be improved. Fortifications can be roofed and archery trained.

Archery is currently useless against the attackers with the surge of Gravitation, as both Kaladin's heroics against the Parshendi and the Fused against the Wall Guard proved. Also, while the Fused don't heal as quickly as the Radiants, killing one of them with an arrow would still be very unlikely. Alethi need to learn to make arrows or bolts with explosive tips and to coat them with aluminium to actually significantly hurt/kill the Fused.

 

12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Apparently Windrunners are faster. Roshar has unjammable and uninterceptable real-time communication. Air defenses can be organized.

Windrunners are only faster in the short term - they accelerate better and can pile on more Lashings, but the Fused can maintain their surges endlessly, while the Radiants run out of stormlight. Which would work in their favor during raids, particularly if they time them for long enough after a highstorm that the gems are only weakly charged. As to communication - did you miss that during their conquest of Alethkar the Fused located and confiscated the fabrials first? As long as normal people can't fend them off at least for long enough that Radiant help can arrive, holding productive territory against them in the easy strike range is impossible. Only distance can give enough of a respite from their attentions at the moment.

 

12 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Secondly, you need to keep trade running as far as possible. Humans have the advantage of having more shipwrights. They also have superior capabilities in the area of fabrials and far more literate people. Humans can field a whole lot of spanreeds and warning fabrials. And maybe the painrial can be weaponized. Anti-air harpoons? Still, I think navally they should go on the offensive.

 

Everstorm does a number on ships that aren't under Odium's protection, though. But yes, trade is crucial, and yes, the anti-Odium side should fully exploit it's technological superiority. They weren't in any position to go into offensive as of end of OB, though. I fully expect a massive technological jump motivated by military neccessities, similar to what happened during WWII, only more so. But they wouldn't be there yet after just a year, IMHO, and they wouldn't have arrived at it off-page. This is fiction, we are going to see crucial inventions being introduced on-page.

 

12 hours ago, Karger said:

Actually at a certain point I think you can.  Remember killing a Radiant does not kill the spren and spren generally weather the death of their Radiant.  Squires can be replaced fairly easily and Nightblood is capable of killing a fused permanently.  Additionally many fused will be needed for none combat duties across Roshar training singers to read and write, in command, in farming techniques and architecture.  Humans can fill these jobs with skilled people who are not surgebinders. 

Neither Radiants nor squires can be replaced easily! First of all, only a 3rd Oath Radiant can have squires, as we have seen with Bridge 4, who only began to glow after Kaladin spoke his 3rd. And the Windrunners have the strongest and most squires - which means that other Orders may get them even later. Among the Skybreakers only the 4th level "masters" have squires, for instance, but we don't know if it is because they can't or because they won't. It takes Radiants time to get there, usually years. And second, both Radiants and squires need experience and training to become skilled with their surges.

 

11 hours ago, Karger said:

The singers will get steadily better the longer they are awake.  However you realy can't train someone for high level command in under a decade.  Basically their is no substitute for experience no matter how good your teaching methods are.

Are you familiar with the history of French and Russian revolutions? It doesn't take nearly as long as you think.

[Karger]

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

That raises a point. Why would Odium use corporal leaders? He has Voidspren.

This is actually a fairly good point.  However spren have some drawbacks.  From what Syl says in her "people are discord" speech spren are actually fairly unimaginative and predictable.  They also seem to have gaps in their understanding based on their purpose.  Can you imagine any of our spren leading an army successfully?

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Right. This is counterintuitive. But they have the Windrunners. They could drown them in squires. Ugly strategy though.

Same strategy as warefare in general.  Let your people die in order to kill other people.

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

How many would Nale find? And more importantly, Nale may be crazy, but he has quite some integrity. He will not force trainees to choose his side.

He won't even force his own people to his side if they have different interpretations of the law then he does.  A large number of skybreakers could fight on any side of the war.

5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Honor did use him. The Stormfather outright said so.

Honor is dead so that is a moot point.

11 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Since Eshonai is dead, her flashbacks would show the events as they happened, not as or how she remembered them, so her memorizing or not is irrelevant. We'd get whatever her mother tried to teach her word for word

I think she played hooky.  "You traveled while I memorized songs!"  So I don't think we will get as much intel this way.

12 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Ulim told very little to Venli and mislead her when he could, which is why she expected completely different results from the stormform choir during the Battle of Narak

Ulim withheld specific information from Venli in order to get her on his side.  This does not exclude him telling her other things that we might want to know.

14 minutes ago, Isilel said:

he only taught her to trap stormspren in gems and ther ritual that she thought would let them destroy the Alethi army, but in reality summoned the Everstorm.

Even if that is true, and we do not know that it is, passing comments could be invaluable.

15 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Stormfather did say that Honor used him the same way that Odium now uses Everstorm, so Dalinar might be able to as well, at some point.

I seriously doubt that the Stormfather will let Dalinar tell him to do anything with the highstorms.  He already does not do always come when Dalinar tells him to.

17 minutes ago, Isilel said:

A very good point about the Fused - maybe there is a way to hold them off in Shadesmar, before they can reach Roshar and the cycle of unlimited respawn through Everstorm? It would require making alliances with intelligent spren and smoothing over the wounds of the Recreance, though.

I don't think the fused go through shadesmar.  The ones who are their now seem to have come from the Horneater peaks.

19 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Why would Rlain be with Kaladin, if he is working on the Listeners, who are on the Shattered Plains

Because Rlain is a singer and as such can infiltrate enemy camps more easily then anyone else.

20 minutes ago, Isilel said:

it is unlikely that he'd pass among the awakened parshmen, who speak it like the natives

Accent practice is possible.  They are also pretty bad at speaking Alethi.  Rlain has practiced speaking for the past several months in Alethi.  Also he can attune rhythms well enough that he can probably pass any causal inspection with ease.  Also I kind of doubt that the singers or fused have much experience with individuals who side with humans.

23 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Shallan could go either way, though personally, I find her infiltration routine much more boring than her research routine, and I also love her interactions with Jasnah, which is why my personal preference is for her to remain on the Shattered Plains and investigate the Ghostbloods, Stormseat, the Listeners, etc. I also want her to spend time with her brothers on-page, because IMHO coming clean to them will finally help her to accept and reconcile her 4th Truth.

Agreed.

24 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Adolin is a Highsprince, yes, but it didn't stop him from going on a mission before

He was not highprince before and they needed someone who new the city.

27 minutes ago, Isilel said:

And yes, you can have important, fleshed-out characters who are not PoVs, but they need to be observed by PoVs for that to happen. Navani is joined at the hip to Dalinar, so that for the most part we can follow her doings through his PoV.

Having multiple POVs show the same thing is generally a bad idea.  However when conflicts are internal(as they often are in SA) it often makes sense to have more then one of the same kind.

29 minutes ago, Isilel said:

As Dalinar's first flashback showed, not very. And that's the kind of thing that I expect Fused raids to do routinely, if the Alethi try to take back Alethkar. And yes, of course, the Windrunners can retaliate - though currently the Fused have numerical superiority, that's how civilizations were smashed back to stone age during the Desolations. It didn't work great for the peoples of Roshar back them and there is no reason to think that it would have better results in the present.

Raiding is nasty but if their are ongoing military conflicts between armies most of the fused will be required there since the fused will likely have to hold every military rank above squad leader and they will be needed to help the singers who will likely be far worse fighters.

31 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Archery is currently useless against the attackers with the surge of Gravitation, as both Kaladin's heroics against the Parshendi and the Fused against the Wall Guard proved

The wall guard was not realy trying to kill the fused just scare them off.  We have never seen the fused do anything like the reverse lashing that Kaladin can do against archers.

33 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Also, while the Fused don't heal as quickly as the Radiants, killing one of them with an arrow would still be very unlikely. Alethi need to learn to make arrows or bolts with explosive tips and to coat them with aluminium to actually significantly hurt/kill the Fused.

Or just get more powerful bows with barbed heads.  A hit with one of those will be difficult to remove and force constant healing by the fused until they die.

35 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Which would work in their favor during raids, particularly if they time them for long enough after a highstorm that the gems are only weakly charged

That will only realy work during the weeping.  Highstorms are fairly regular.

36 minutes ago, Isilel said:

did you miss that during their conquest of Alethkar the Fused located and confiscated the fabrials first

They can only do this when the fabrials are active.  If you get a good network in place that is set up in a more organized fashion all the person would have to write is SOS location + number and type of attackers.  Then they can turn it off run away and hide.

38 minutes ago, Isilel said:

holding productive territory against them in the easy strike range is impossible. Only distance can give enough of a respite from their attentions at the moment.

If you just strait up invade Alethkar the fused will largely be too occupied for raiding.  You will have to do this anyway to get the land you want.

40 minutes ago, Isilel said:

But they wouldn't be there yet after just a year, IMHO, and they wouldn't have arrived at it off-page. This is fiction, we are going to see crucial inventions being introduced on-page.

He can't show everything happening even if this is Sanderson.  Some stuff is going to happen off page.

41 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Among the Skybreakers only the 4th level "masters" have squires

?  I see no reason why a third level can't have squire.

42 minutes ago, Isilel said:

It takes Radiants time to get there, usually years. And second, both Radiants and squires need experience and training to become skilled with their surges.

It will take time but not years.  Remember the desolation usually increases the numbers of Radiants as the spren realize that humans and spren need each other to survive.  Kaladin is good enough after only a few months.  Same with Shallan and Lift and Dalinar and all of Kaladin's squires...  The heightened tensions of a desolation tend to speed things up.

44 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Are you familiar with the history of French and Russian revolutions? It doesn't take nearly as long as you think.

What are you talking about?  Getting good at battlefield command takes time.  I challenge you to name one successful commander in the modern age who did not have at least a decade of prior military experience.

[+Oltux72]

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Not only the budding Radiants - they need to rescue artifabrians, scholars, artisans. Their one advantage this time around is the much higher technoligical base and the fact that fabrial science was on the cusp of a major creative explosion.

The reverse is also true. The Fused never met a population that was just recently awakened. Though that would call for striking quickly. Which is not necessarily a contradiction. You can remain on the defensive in a strategic sense, while doing some local attacks at key points. I would suggest to strike on the ocean and to occupy key fortresses while you can.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

This  is a completely unprecedented situation, which will, hopefully, mark the transition between reliance on the few super-powered individuals, who can't be everywhere at once, to the non-powered people being able to fend off the Fused (and the voidforms?), too. Also, with the ready availability of uncomplaining, submissive slave labour abruptly drying up, they are very much motivated to design a number of labour-saving devices and means of transport.

The latter is questionable. Parshmen were mostly a luxury and specialized item. Human slaves were cheaper. In fact it may be risky to abolish slavery just as Parshendi would have a chance to turn the table.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

A very good point about the Fused - maybe there is a way to hold them off in Shadesmar, before they can reach Roshar and the cycle of unlimited respawn through Everstorm? It would require making alliances with intelligent spren and smoothing over the wounds of the Recreance, though.

The Fused are nice enough to demonstrate the need for such an alliance to the Spren. Torching ships and buildings is bad PR. There must be a reason for the Fused to take the perpendicularity. To just let them seems to be a bad idea. And to walk up to the Horneater peaks looks like a bad idea, too. You do the expected and the enemy has the higher ground, literally.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Which is why Alethkar-in-exile can't stay in Urithiru, but has to move back where they can grow at least some of their food naturally. We can trust Sebarial on this, IMHO, he knows his stuff.

Exactly. And it provides employment to the refugees.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Couldn't disagree more, since learning the process of reviving a dead blade would be key to awakening the Sibling and to convincing the reluctant Nahel spren peoples and individuals to ally with humans again. Restoring one cultivationspren is by itself not all that important, but the implications and the potential pay-off would be huge indeed. As you yourself noted, convincing the spren to bond in numbers should be a priority. And if Adolin is Edgedancer matierial, he is going to try to restore Maya regardless of the logical considerations of effort spent versus gain.

He isn't. A Windrunner I'd say, if we go by natural inclination. But you could not implement the method. Would you go and confiscate Shard Blades? If you want Alethi nobles to switch to Odium, that is the way to go. And the rest of Roshar would see yet another Alethi plot to take away their weapons.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

As Dalinar's first flashback showed, not very. And that's the kind of thing that I expect Fused raids to do routinely, if the Alethi try to take back Alethkar. And yes, of course, the Windrunners can retaliate - though currently the Fused have numerical superiority, that's how civilizations were smashed back to stone age during the Desolations. It didn't work great for the peoples of Roshar back them and there is no reason to think that it would have better results in the present.

They won. I cannot see the Radiants just giving away that weapon unused.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Archery is currently useless against the attackers with the surge of Gravitation, as both Kaladin's heroics against the Parshendi and the Fused against the Wall Guard proved. Also, while the Fused don't heal as quickly as the Radiants, killing one of them with an arrow would still be very unlikely. Alethi need to learn to make arrows or bolts with explosive tips and to coat them with aluminium to actually significantly hurt/kill the Fused.

Good suggestion. Poison would likely be cheaper in the short run, though.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Windrunners are only faster in the short term - they accelerate better and can pile on more Lashings, but the Fused can maintain their surges endlessly, while the Radiants run out of stormlight. Which would work in their favor during raids, particularly if they time them for long enough after a highstorm that the gems are only weakly charged.

Not on the defensive. You concentrate your forces on random locations. Then you let the flying Fused pass and hit them on the return leg. And you create fuel depots. Radiants can transfer Stormlight. The way squires work requires local concentration anyway.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

As to communication - did you miss that during their conquest of Alethkar the Fused located and confiscated the fabrials first? As long as normal people can't fend them off at least for long enough that Radiant help can arrive, holding productive territory against them in the easy strike range is impossible. Only distance can give enough of a respite from their attentions at the moment.

They can confiscate only on their own territory. This is a nice way to plan an ambush though. Lure them in with a fabrial.

28 minutes ago, Isilel said:

Are you familiar with the history of French and Russian revolutions? It doesn't take nearly as long as you think.

Still years. And in the Russian case, the result wasn't all that good.

[Karger]

11 minutes ago, Oltux72 said:

The latter is questionable. Parshmen were mostly a luxury and specialized item.

Not exactly.  Many worked on the docks and in caravans too.