168 posts in this topic

Cream Tuatara, I’ve responded to your PM. I’m currently confined to mobile right now, but I can deliver a satisfactory response to all of your questions once I get home.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aaargh, why is it so quiet! This leaves way too much room for me to second-guess myself and stuff...

Could someone just go argue against the lynch of mouse or propose an alternative or anything that means I can stop imagining a shadowy council of wolves sitting around a table smoking whiskey and drinking cigars while grinning about everything going to plan :( 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm. So I did get a response from Mouse, and so my thoughts regarding the situation in my PM has dropped to being more non alignment indicative. I had been wary before anyway, but I'm now less sure... I'd really have hoped that we'd get a little more discussion at this point. 

@Indigo Weasel Cycle 2, you said this:

Quote

I don't really want to lynch Emerald... first because I think the lynch against them doesn't make any sense, and second for selfish reasons. ; )

What did you mean "for selfish reasons"?

I'm going to continue going through the game to see if I can refine my suspicion list further...

Edit: I'm still pretty unhappy with the lack of engagement and contribution from Magenta Albatross. Could very easily be an eliminator just sitting around remaining active enough to mostly be seen as active without actually contributing to the game.

Edit 2: Same goes for Coral Swan. At least we're pretty sure that they're not the vote remover or the person putting in the night kill, based on what we heard with the Emperor. Doesn't clear them from being an eliminator, but even if they were, they are possibly less immediately pressing if they're otherwise occupied with their actions. And if they happen to be good, then hopefully they'll be using the 4 skeletals they've stockpiled and try and prevent the vote remover or eliminator night kill from happening.

Still leaning village on Falcon and Dingo. So then it's just Mouse and Weasel. Weasel I find hard to get a read on, and I've already talked about Mouse... They've been active without contributing a ton - they've demonstrated the ability to produce some good analysis but have only really done that once. 

No one's really had any clear tells in their posts in thread that have felt like they suggest their eliminators. I think I need to look over how the lynches have played out again...

Edited by Cream Tuatara
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Melon Dingo said:

@Emerald Falcon, So are you saying that you thought that Mauve had an ability that allowed them to only remove their own vote, and that was somehow a role an elim would likely have? Because I'm still failing at following your reasoning here.

Essentially yes. I figured it would be more likely that an Elim would have a role that allows their own vote to be removed or secretly redirected than it would be for a villager to have such a role. It appeared as if Mauve had such a role.

43 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

@Indigo Weasel Cycle 2, you said this:

What did you mean "for selfish reasons"?

I'm going to continue going through the game to see if I can refine my suspicion list further...

Edit: I'm still pretty unhappy with the lack of engagement and contribution from Magenta Albatross. Could very easily be an eliminator just sitting around remaining active enough to mostly be seen as active without actually contributing to the game.

 I think because at the time, we had a PM open, and I don't believe they had any additional PMs.

 

Alright everyone, at this point, we have 7 players down, and 3 votes. They're all for azure mouse. We've only heard from some of the players this cycle, so it's entirely possible that some of the players we've heard from are eliminators. If that's the case, and Azure is village, then we've let the Elims have a clean Elim Sweep.

If Azure is Elim, then we are still at lylo, so I don't really think that the Elims are that worried.

@Cream Tuatara You expressed a hesitance to keep your vote on Azure, Who else would you be willing to vote for? @Azure Mouse If you are village, who would you vote for? Just based on chance, there's a 4/7 chance you're village. But since you're one of the characters that everyone who has spoken up has been willing to lynch, I think there's a better than even chance you're eliminator, as so far, no one has had sufficient reason to give you a personal clear.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Spoiler
Cycle 1
In Thread Tally
Mint Heron(1): Emerald Falcon, Mauve Crocodile
Amber Vulture(1): Charcoal Hyena
Indigo Weasel(0): Mauve Crocodile
Fuchsia Ostrich(0): Cream Tuatara
Chartreuse Penguin(1): Cream Tuatara
Magenta Albatross(1): Azure Mouse
Amethyst Scorpion(2): Coral Swan, Chartreuse Penguin

Reported Tally
Chartreuse Penguin (1) - Cream Tuatara
Mint Heron (0) - Mauve Crocodile
Azure Mouse (1) -
Amber Vulture (1) - Charcoal Hyena
Amethyst Scorpion (1) - Coral Swan, Chartreuse Penguin
Magenta Albatross (1) - Azure Mouse

Amber Vulture lynched, Mint Heron killed

Cycle 2
In Thread Tally
Mint Heron(0) - Indigo Weasel
Amethyst Scorpion(4) - Indigo Weasel, Coral Swan, Chartreuse Penguin, Magenta Albatross, Cream Tuatara
Emerald Falcon(2) - Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo
Chartreuse Penguin(2) - Indigo Weasel, Fuchsia Ostrich

Reported Tally
Amethyst Scorpion (4) - Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Cream Tuatara, Magenta Albatross
Chartreuse Penguin (2) - Fuchsia Ostrich, Indigo Weasel
Emerald Falcon (2) - Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo

Amethyst Scorpion lynched, Fuchsia Ostrich killed

Cycle 3
In Thread Tally
Chartreuse Penguin(2) - Emerald Falcon, Melon Dingo
Emerald Falcon(2) - Chartreuse Penguin, Mauve Crocodile
Coral Swan(0) - Melon Dingo
Mauve Crocodile(1) - Cream Tuatara

Reported Tally
Chartreuse Penguin (2) - Emerald Falcon, Melon Dingo
Emerald Falcon (1) - Chartreuse Penguin, Mauve Crocodile
Mauve Crocodile (1) - Cream Tuatara

Chartreuse Penguin lynched, Charcoal Hyena killed

Cycle 4
In Thread Tally
Mauve Crocodile(1): Emerald Falcon, Azure Mouse
Magenta Albatross(0): Mauve Crocodile
Emerald Falcon(1): Ivory Dragonfly
Coral Swan(3): Melon Dingo, Cream Tuatara, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo
Ivory Dragonfly(2): Magenta Albatross, Azure Mouse

Reported Tally
Coral Swan (2) - Cream Tuatara, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo
Emerald Falcon (1) - Ivory Dragonfly
Ivory Dragonfly (2) - Azure Mouse, Magenta Albatross
Mauve Crocodile (1) - Emerald Falcon

Ivory Dragonfly lynched, Mauve Crocodile killed
 
So these are all the vote tallies from across the game. Some thoughts:
 
Cycle 1 - Mauve Crocodile originally voted on Indigo Weasel, before moving that vote to Mint Heron. Potentially the reason Crocodile's vote was removed was because it had been on Weasel? That being said, Crocodile did move his vote to Heron 13 hours before the end of cycle, so there should have been time to change actions if necessary. So there's probably nothing significant there.

Cycle 2 - This was the only cycle a vote wasn't removed from anyone. Also the only cycle Weasel voted, although they did put down a vote, then shifted it becaue they had voted on a dead player, then removed it again. Probably just a coincidence though. Everyone piled on Scorpion, with a sufficient lead that there wasn't a lot of use for anyone removing a vote.

Cycle 3 - There was a tie between Falcon and Penguin, before a vote was removed from the Falcon lynch. It maybe interesting that the lynch that one had two players we don't know the alignment of, and saved one of those players. I've otherwise gotten good vibes from those two players though, so don't know...

Cycle 4 - There was a one vote lead on Swan against the Dragonfly lynch that appeared fairly last minute (3 hours and 2 hours prior to the end of cycle). Interestingly, Swan didn't vote at all to save themselves. They were 'saved' by a vote being removed from their lynch, but that still just meant a coinflip. Not sure how I feel about the last minute nature of the Dragonfly lynch. Probably reflects more poorly on Albatross than Mouse. Don't know if it's likely for a Mouse, Albatross, Swan team or not... Maybe Albatross and Swan at least?

The other thing I wanted to look at is the suspicions of the players who've died in the last cycle or two:
- Crocodile was most suspicious of Swan and Mouse, and didn't think Falcon (or Dragonfly) were the most suspicous last cycle.
- Dragonfly tunnelled on Falcon
- Penguin was last suspicious of Falcon for their comment that "It seems we are on our way toward Lylo, or worse, a perfect elim game. " at the start of cycle 3. It wasn't until cycle 4 that Falcon actually posted a breakdown of the progression towards lylo.

I need to think further. Although at this point it seems unlikely a shift in the lynch would occur...
 
Edit: @Emerald Falcon I'd be willing to vote on Magenta Albatross or maybe Coral Swan. But even if I do think there's a reasonable chance that Swan is an eliminator, I don't think they're the eliminator to be putting in orders, based on what came out last cycle with the Emperor. So attempting to lynch one a different eliminator would be preferable to potentially block the eliminator kill or remove the vote remover (Glory Arbiter?) from the game. But then I guess it'd be better to at least get an eliminator...
Edited by Cream Tuatara
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's see if I can get my thoughts ever so slightly organized. I'm going to go through all the remaining players from the top and just jot down my thoughts.

Azure mouse: Mouse didn't really say much during the early cycles. They did vote on albatross which  makes it less likely that they're bothwolves. But mouse also said they forgot tot take the vote off, so that could just be an accident.I am mostly suspicious off them because they went after crocodile for an odd reason, and then backed off against saying they didn't really like that lynch after all. But if they are a wolf, then I'd have expected wolves to have done more to protect him. but maybe they just want us to think that's the case...

Also, there's something else. @Azure Mouse, are you a striker? You predicted that striker might be a role, and seemed quite certain that there was another striker as well.

Coral Swan: Coral swan has also not said all that much of substance, mostly protecting themselves whenever they got voted on, which is a bit suspicious, as villagers should be trying to find wolves, not just stay alive, right? If they are speaking the truth about their role though, the village really needs them. But they only made that claim this cycle, so maybe it's a gambit to ensure swan doesn't get lynched? Either way though, I don't think Swan should be lynched this cycle. If they are speaking the truth, the wolves will probably try to kill them this cycle, and if they aren't, then we could look at them next cycle.

Cream Tuatara: They seem to have been looking for wolves since cycle 2 or so, and most of their posts make sense. So I'm just going to trust them, and hope I don't end up in a last three with them.

Emerald Falcon: I still think their vote on the first cycle looks off. Or not so much their vote as their retraction. It seemed like they really didn't want to be on the first successful lynch there, which feels like its more of a wolf thing to do? Then they posted a bunch but nothing really to do with finding wolves until they went after penguin. But the reasoning  for going after penguin was something along the lines of 'maybe the elims where trying to save someone with vote manip, but it wasn't me because I'm not an elim so it must be penguin'. It's probably stupid of me, but the emphasis on falcon not being a wolf in that post seems oddly specific? Anyway, I have already said stuff about their vote on croc, and it still seems odd, but maybe that's just because I haven't played enough games to see the use in a role that removes your own vote or why that might be especially useful to a wolf.

indigo weasel: Weasel was mistaken about mint heron still being alive, and that seems strange if they where a wolf. But then again, maybe they did that on purpose? And then they voted on scorp, and I believe I already said that I didn't really like that lynch. But then alter it seemed like they where trying to go over everyone to find a wolf, and that sounds good, even if they didn't finish it. For the rest they didn't really say much, so I don't really know for certain, but they don't really seem evil?

Albatross: I don't really have anything on them? They said very, very little.

So if I where to order the remaining players from most to least suspicious, it'd be mouse/falcon(tie), Swan/albatross(tie), weasel and Tuatara.

Edit: @Cream Tuatara, of those two you mentioned you wanted to maybe move the lynch too, I'd be open to lynching albatross. I think the wolves will show us whether Swan is evil or not because they kinda have to kill them if they want to win if swan is village.

Edited by Melon Dingo
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Melon Dingo said:

 @Cream Tuatara, of those two you mentioned you wanted to maybe move the lynch too, I'd be open to lynching albatross. I think the wolves will show us whether Swan is evil or not because they kinda have to kill them if they want to win if swan is village.

Looking at who has been online, Azure Mouse was online 4 hours ago, Coral Swan was online 2 hours ago, Indigo Weasel was online 9 hours ago, Magenta Albatross was online 21 hours ago, and obviously you, I, and Emerald are all online currently. Don't know if this is useful.

Anyways, I'm sitting here really unsure whether or not it's worth shifting to Albatross or not. Does the silence from the other players suggest that they're happy with a Mouse lynch? Are they waiting till late to vote? Or are the only active people eliminators that they're just happy with the state of affairs. But if so, why isn't the rest of the village voting...

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

Anyways, I'm sitting here really unsure whether or not it's worth shifting to Albatross or not. Does the silence from the other players suggest that they're happy with a Mouse lynch? Are they waiting till late to vote? Or are the only active people eliminators that they're just happy with the state of affairs. But if so, why isn't the rest of the village voting...

This is what really stresses me out. If all villagers don't vote together, and if there's a 3 person wolf team then the wolves could create a tie even without vote manipulation, and could maybe win outright since Swan could block at most one of the vote manipulator or the killer.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm really sorry. Just so you all know the state of my life right now, I got a really stressful task from work yesterday, and I have until end of today to finish it before school starts. It's not within my skillset, and... yeah. That's going to be tough.

Yesterday I meant to post when I got home, but instead I ended up just taking a break from reality, which I think I needed.

Rollover is before lunch break, so I cant even take that to work on this.

Really quick before I get back to work:

2 hours ago, Cream Tuatara said:

 

@Indigo Weasel Cycle 2, you said this:

Quote

I don't really want to lynch Emerald... first because I think the lynch against them doesn't make any sense, and second for selfish reasons. ; )

What did you mean "for selfish reasons"?

In every anon game I have played so far, I have ended up working closely with the player behind the account of Emerald Falcon.

Emerald then PMed me C1, and I thought that was too amazing of a coincidence. (Dont spoil this for me by saying Emerald PMed everyone C1 : P)

Anyways, that's pretty much it. : )

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Indigo Weasel said:

I'm really sorry. Just so you all know the state of my life right now, I got a really stressful task from work yesterday, and I have until end of today to finish it before school starts. It's not within my skillset, and... yeah. That's going to be tough.

Yesterday I meant to post when I got home, but instead I ended up just taking a break from reality, which I think I needed.

Rollover is before lunch break, so I cant even take that to work on this.

Really quick before I get back to work:

In every anon game I have played so far, I have ended up working closely with the player behind the account of Emerald Falcon.

Emerald then PMed me C1, and I thought that was too amazing of a coincidence. (Dont spoil this for me by saying Emerald PMed everyone C1 : P)

Anyways, that's pretty much it. : )

I didn't receive a PM from Falcon C1 so there's that :P

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve only just skimmed over the thread, but I’ll try to respond to everything.

@Melon Dingo No, I am not a striker. Back when Striker was revealed as a role, I assumed that with 18 players there was possibly another Striker. However, the Bloodsealer role seems like a powerful enough role to make it only one Striker, and besides, there should have been more kills if there was another striker.

@Emerald Falcon You say “if” like you’ve already decided I’m Elim:P. I would, no, will vote on Albatross. I took a look at their posts and besides one-sentence responses, their only contributions have been in response to the threat of votes. This defensive stance strikes me as a possible Elim defensive strategy. 

This is quite stressful; this lynch decides the game.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

I didn't receive a PM from Falcon C1 so there's that :P

:D

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, There's 30 minutes left. I'll be back to check in about 15 minutes, but can't guarantee I'll be on after that. This means my vote may most likely stay on Azure.

Edit: I reread this and it said 4 minutes when it was supposed to show 40. Now it's down to 30.

I also didn't notice the second page.

If I'm not mistaken, it's 3 for Azure right now, and one for albatross? Is that right?

Edited by Emerald Falcon
0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

 

If I'm not mistaken, it's 3 for Azure right now, and one for albatross? Is that right?

Yeah, seems so. I'm getting really antsy here. If we were right about mouse, I'd have expected more defense now.

Unless maybe albatross is evil too and they don't have the votes to tie 3vs3?

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we have the power to keep the vote on Azure right now or move it to albatross very effectively with just you and me, if you want to move it.

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sorry, I'm really sorry if this ends up losing us the gane, but the mouse lynch feels too uncontested to be a wolf

mouse

albatross

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I also offer the same apology. Especially if Mouse is evil, and co-conspiring with Melon, but I too will switch, as it makes sense to me the reason that Melon provided, and someone else said that they didn't have an elim read on Melon.

Mouse

Albatross.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This turn has ended. Has the game? Stay tuned

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.