Long Game 59: Shadows and Spikes

[CadCom]

Huh. My guess had put Rath as the Soother, but I guess seeing as you hadn't been on near the end of the cycle, you could have still soothed Rath's vote. This evidence seems convincing enough to vote for  Amanuensis 

To add to the evidence, during the night, Aman essentially claimed that it wasn't role madness, because they didnt have a role. (They didnt use those exact words, but they did strongly suggest that).

Then I suggested that maybe Aman was just trying to get one of us to scan him and show that he had no metals, confirming his claim. 

Now he's claiming Seeker, and Drake is counter-claiming. I think the best evidence is if another seeker comes forward, but I can understand why you might not. Regardless, if we somehow determine Aman is not the inquisitor by lynching him, then we can turn back on Drake, as he would be the one pulling a lie. 

Regardless. Our first priority must be to lynch the inquisitor, and I am fairly certain that the inquisitor hasn't had time to convert anyone yet, and that lumgol confirmed there are no secret rules, so that would suggest Aman is the inquisitor. 

[Cicada]

Yeah. I think we can always lynch Drake if it turns out he was lying. Therefore, I'll add onto Amanuensis.

[DrakeMarshall]

46 minutes ago, Cicada said:

I don't see why Aman would lie about such a thing. Do you know? To build cred in future sessions?

Not for the sake of future sessions, no. The Inquisitor does not have Seeker powers, so if Aman was able to substantiate a Seeker claim, that would soft-clear him of being the Inquisitor. Considering I had just made a case against Aman, it was really quite an intelligent maneuver on Aman's part to attempt to shut down any emerging suspicions against him, even though it happened to backfire.

26 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Huh. My guess had put Rath as the Soother, but I guess seeing as you hadn't been on near the end of the cycle, you could have still soothed Rath's vote.

Ah, I should clarify. I didn't sooth a vote off of Rath. That was someone else, probably Rath themself. Nevertheless, I am also a Soother.

Quote

To add to the evidence, during the night, Aman essentially claimed that it wasn't role madness, because they didnt have a role. (They didnt use those exact words, but they did strongly suggest that).

Good point. If Aman had gotten clarification that the Inquisitor is scanned by a Seeker as a vanilla (which is quite possible, because they don't have access to any allomantic powers until they spike themselves), then implying that he was vanilla would make a lot of sense for Inquisit!Aman.

Quote

Regardless, if we somehow determine Aman is not the inquisitor by lynching him, then we can turn back on Drake, as he would be the one pulling a lie.

^this. I'm fairly sure Fura's calculations say we can handle at least one more mislynch, so if I turn out to be the one lying, you can just lynch me the next cycle.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Aman

Just now, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I'm fairly sure Fura's calculations say we can handle at least one more mislynch, so if I turn out to be the one lying, you can just lynch me the next cycle.

Let's see. 

D2: 10-1(3 lives) mislynch
N2: 9-1(3 lives) convert, kill
D3: 8-2(3 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N3: 8-2(2 lives + 2 lives) kill
D4: 7-2(2 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N4: 7-2(1 life + 2 lives) kill + spike C
D5: 6-2(1 life + 3 lives) lynch I
N5: 6-1(3 lives) kill
D6: 5-1(3 lives) mislynch
N6: 4-1(3 lives) kill
D7: 3-1(3 lives) lynch C
N7: 3-1(2 lives) kill
D8: 2-1(2 lives) lynch C
N8: 2-1(1 life) kill
D9: 1-1 game over unless the two vote minimum is retracted or we somehow have a rioter around.

So in the absolute worst case, if Drake is for some reason lying when it would be fairly easy for an Inquisitor to just go with it, we can't survive any mislynches after today. In practice, it's actually far better than this so long as we have a Seer. A Seer can block spike charging and conversion by targeting the Inquisitor, and since we'll know who that is after today, we would be able to win once the Inquisitor is dead. It would be nice to get Lurcher protection on the Seer, but as we cannot be sure that there is a Lurcher, I can't advocate for a Seer to claim.

 

[Furamirionind]

Ok, I wrote a response on my phone while in my robotics meeting (stepping back from being captain has it's perks : )  )... But I didn't finish, don't like posting on my phone, and I have a computer now. So here are my semi-quick thoughts:

5 hours ago, Cicada said:

Might as well just confirm that I'm a Coinshot.

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I would have preferred it if you didnt since I already had you as village. But too late now.

5 hours ago, Cicada said:

Apologies. Some people seemed doubtful.

Eh, I think it's fine. Coinshot is an easy fake claim to make, and having someone I trust claim coinshot makes me feel much better than having someone I don't claim it.  However, as it isn't a kill role this game, it is possible there is another one.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Hah. Nice guess, but no.

Eyebrows shoot up

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Even if you did have an accurate scan on me, which you don't, you wouldn't have waited to disclose it, since you already suspected me.

Ok, I'll disagree here. If he does have a valid scan, I believe he would be reluctant claim your role so quickly. Notice this

9 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I like how you included me twice

I'm no longer suspicious of Drake since it appears he wasn't online after Venture made it clear he had a role.

Leaves my remaining suspects as Stick, Rath, Fura and Devotary. No particular order, but I think I would like Stick dead the most (nothing personal).

ED1T:

Forgot CadCom. Need to analyze him.

ED2T:

Nevermind on the Drake thing. He was online two hours ago, but didnt post. Did anyone happen to see him viewing the thread?

Hmm, while last time I read this post it didn't have the ED2T, everything before that seems in character with having just scanned and proved that Drake is village. He doesn't want to out his or Drake's role, but also wants to direct conversation away from Drake as he knows that conversation would be pointless. The reasoning given isn't amazing, which makes me think that this isn't something that Aman was planning on saying over the entire night or whatever.  This point alone doesn't clear Drake.
Now reading the ED2T, that does run counter to the point though, so I don't know.

Anyways, my point stands. A villager would be just as, if not more reluctant to claim their results.

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

@everyone, I am now 100% certain Aman is evil. I don't say that lightly. Aman just lied about being a Seeker, and unless the GMs step forward and announce that they have made a mistake, I cannot conceive of any possible way Aman is anything but evil.

Assuming you are telling the truth... Which... I mean... you really have to be. Lol...
anyways, assuming you are telling the truth,  you don't actually know he is evil. You just know he is lying. He could be pulling a "Fifth"...

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Aman being evil doesn't guarantee that he is the inquisitor (who is obviously a higher priority lynch target), but given that it was stuff he said last cycle that was setting off my suspicions in the first place, which prompted him to take a stab at guessing my role, it's still extremely probable that Aman is the inquisitor

The only evil player right now is the Inquisitor, is it not? There are no secrets, and the game starts with 1 evil player. That player can't convert on D2... So anyone evil C1 or C2 has to be the Inquisitor.

We have plenty of votes on Aman right now, and while I know Aman has a silver tongue (though he has denied it before  ), I'd like to give him a chance to speak.

---

29 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

^this. I'm fairly sure Fura's calculations say we can handle at least one more mislynch, so if I turn out to be the one lying, you can just lynch me the next cycle.

If we mislynch today, we are out of mislynches.

19 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So in the absolute worst case, if Drake is for some reason lying when it would be fairly easy for an Inquisitor to just go with it, we can't survive any mislynches after today. In practice, it's actually far better than this so long as we have a Seer. A Seer can block spike charging and conversion by targeting the Inquisitor, and since we'll know who that is after today, we would be able to win once the Inquisitor is dead. It would be nice to get Lurcher protection on the Seer, but as we cannot be sure that there is a Lurcher, I can't advocate for a Seer to claim.

Ok, here is the problem, we don't necessarily know who the Inquisitor is after today.

Senarios:

1. Elim!Aman & Village!Drake -- Simplest option, probably most likely.  Aman wanted to pull off something risky for long term gain, saw an opportunity, and slightly got it wrong. Drake is a soother, and Aman guessed he was a Rioter.
2. Village!Aman & Elim!Drake -- this has 2 sub options: 
   1. Aman was lying and didn't scan Drake. Guessed that Drake was a Rioter in an attempt to direct conversation away from who he thought was a villager. He guessed wrong and is paying for it. The only strange thing, is that Aman even earlier today through his ED2T, seemed to not trust Drake.
   2. Aman did scan Drake, and... This doesn't work, as it either requires Aman to discover Drake is an elim/roleless and lie about it, or... Yeah, that's basically it. So this isn't an option.
3. Village!Aman & Village!Drake -- This is the exact same scenario as 2.2
4. Elim!Aman & Elim!Drake -- Mechanically not possible as there are no converts left. While this would be a horrible strategy, I could see it from these two as a ploy to both give the village a chance at the game, and get a deep wolf at the same time.

So, in order from most sense to least sense is:
1
3
2
4

[Amanuensis]

I am pretty sure Brass is Rioter. Am I wrong? Because that would be incredibly stupid to risk.

ED1T:

Google tells me I am wrong. Turns out I'm incredibly stupid.

Note I was drunk last night, otherwise my reply would have been more eloquent than terse. Seeker says the metal not the role. I mixed up Rioter and Soother. Should be understandable since they are so close. Honestly ask yourself what are the odds of me being in the right ballpark about a vote manipulation role?

ED2T:

Not going to spend time arguing, even if it's obvious my claim is honest. Amanuensis

ED3T:

Nah stupid question before. Honestly ask yourself what elim would claim a fake role after a SINGLE vote? I did it so the Village wouldn't waste time. If I was the Inquisitor I would just talk myself out of it like I always do, or ignore it since it really meant nothing. 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Stick.]

Drake and Aman are both village

because 1) I don't see how elim!Aman would just "guess" a role like that, with the absence of PMs and all that. It's a pretty big slip. 2) I can see why village!Aman would post this:

Quote

I'm no longer suspicious of Drake since it appears he wasn't online after Venture made it clear he had a role.

...

ED2T:

Nevermind on the Drake thing. He was online two hours ago, but didnt post. Did anyone happen to see him viewing the thread?

Probably because he needed to get Drake out of the suspect pool without giving his own role away, as he had previously heavily implied that he was roleless, presumably to lure out the inquisitor in some way. I don't quite fully understand how that would work, though. 

Village!Aman means village!Drake, for obvious reasons. 

The only problem is, Elim!Aman doesn't really operate as a conventional elim would, so this could be part of an elaborate plot, but I don't see what this particular move was meant to accomplish...get Drake to role claim? Then what? or maybe it was just a slip? but what kinda 'slip' even was that? Lol, the more I think about this the more uncertain I get. For now, I'm going with village!aman and village!drake.

And to think...that we'll have to start from square one if the inquisitor converts someone o.O 

Vote to come shortly

[Amanuensis]

34 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Drake and Aman are both village

because 1) I don't see how elim!Aman would just "guess" a role like that, with the absence of PMs and all that. It's a pretty big slip. 2) I can see why village!Aman would post this:

Probably because he needed to get Drake out of the suspect pool without giving his own role away, as he had previously heavily implied that he was roleless, presumably to lure out the inquisitor in some way. I don't quite fully understand how that would work, though. 

Village!Aman means village!Drake, for obvious reasons. 

The only problem is, Elim!Aman doesn't really operate as a conventional elim would, so this could be part of an elaborate plot, but I don't see what this particular move was meant to accomplish...get Drake to role claim? Then what? or maybe it was just a slip? but what kinda 'slip' even was that? Lol, the more I think about this the more uncertain I get. For now, I'm going with village!aman and village!drake.

And to think...that we'll have to start from square one if the inquisitor converts someone o.O 

Vote to come shortly

If I do elaborate plots, they're usually more intelligent  Like I said, I mixed Brass up with Zinc. And as Sart said earlier this cycle, it makes no sense for Inquisitor!Aman to guess Rioter when one just died.

I'm mostly sober / over my hangover now, so my head is clearer. Amanuensis.

[Furamirionind]

Interesting. Idk, I think Aman is telling the truth.

@Amanuensis, @DrakeMarshmallow what's the thing Drake mentioned that would have given his role away to a non-seeker?

I think depending on what that is, if Drake still has reservations, that could still help.

I thought I was going to have time to do a reads list over lunch today, but as I am now going out with a cousin last minute, I will instead probably get out a simpler thing during a break sometime.

Edit:

If Aman is a Seeker, this whole situation is rather amusing. Lol.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Cicada]

...huh. Ok. I guess Amanuensis. Weird mistake, but ok.

[Rathmaskal]

So difficult to be eloquent with rapping.  So I will just grab a normal post here.

I am a soother.   Votes were looking ugly against me D1, so I didn't want to chance it.  (Was hoping to see someone else try to claim that role, but I don't think it's really a possibility now)

So, with Aman claiming seeker now, it actually makes a bit more sense as to why he would have claimed roleless, so I'm definitely leaning a bit more toward this being a role madness game.  AND, since we have 4 claims now, would it be worth it for the remaining 8 players to claim?  I'm actually thinking it would...  (I know, I know, I'm usually not a fan of role claiming, but this game could be an exception with the tight timeline we have here.)

I'm slightly curious why Fura didn't see the V/V possibility of Aman being mistaken.  I guess we just put Aman up on a pedestal and assume he isn't going to make mistakes. *Cicada ninja*

[CadCom]

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I am pretty sure Brass is Rioter. Am I wrong? Because that would be incredibly stupid to risk.

ED1T:

Google tells me I am wrong.

Note I was drunk last night, otherwise my reply would have been more eloquent than terse. Seeker says the metal not the role. I mixed up Rioter and Soother. Should be understandable since they are so close. Honestly ask yourself what are the odds of me being in the right ballpark about a vote manipulation role?

ED2T:

Not going to spend time arguing, even if it's obvious my claim is honest. Amanuensis

ED3T:

Nah stupid question before. Honestly ask yourself what elim would claim a fake role after a SINGLE vote? I did it so the Village wouldn't waste time. If I was the Inquisitor I would just talk myself out of it like I always do, or ignore it since it really meant nothing. 

This is either an excellent attempt at a cover up that will be seen as completely false, or it's actually true, but many people will see it as an excellent cover up.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Drake and Aman are both village

because 1) I don't see how elim!Aman would just "guess" a role like that, with the absence of PMs and all that. It's a pretty big slip. 2) I can see why village!Aman would post this:

Probably because he needed to get Drake out of the suspect pool without giving his own role away, as he had previously heavily implied that he was roleless, presumably to lure out the inquisitor in some way. I don't quite fully understand how that would work, though. 

Village!Aman means village!Drake, for obvious reasons. 

The only problem is, Elim!Aman doesn't really operate as a conventional elim would, so this could be part of an elaborate plot, but I don't see what this particular move was meant to accomplish...get Drake to role claim? Then what? or maybe it was just a slip? but what kinda 'slip' even was that? Lol, the more I think about this the more uncertain I get. For now, I'm going with village!aman and village!drake.

And to think...that we'll have to start from square one if the inquisitor converts someone o.O 

Vote to come shortly

This is an interesting opinion, which I could be willing to believe. 

That means it's time for a quick analysis living players. 

1. Furamirionind: When I opened up my sheet of notes for this game this morning, I noticed that I had at one point eliminated Fura from being the inquisitor. But I can't remember why, so I unremoved the possibility. D1, he voted to put Snip up to two votes, This put Snip at a tie, which would have made it so Snip, Rath, and Drake, all had two votes. Granted, This was about an hour before Rollover, and Fura's post put the belief that Rath still had 3. This could either be genuine mishap, which led to Snip's demise, or it could have been some sort of deliberate attempt to put as many people as close to a tie as possible to end up killing more than one person. Leaning elim now. 

2. Cicada, I'm inclined to believe their role claim. Village read for now. 

3. Xinoehp512, Relatively inactive, yet active on other forums on the Shard. Could be an elim in hiding. Or they could just more interested in RPs or forum games. Nothing bad in the latter, but the former could be deadly. Slight elim read. 

4. DrakeMarshmallow, Drake is in no position to be read as Elim in my opinion. Aman claimed they were a village role, and Drake Counter-claimed another village role, with opposite powers. Either Rioter or Soother. I'm inclined to believe they are a Soother. Which makes their claim that they did not soothe the vote off of Rath more interesting, suggesting that this could very well be Role Madness, with a Soothing role being used twice. One or two other roles would have to be used twice as well. Village read for now. Prime Convert candidate. Of course this is all IKYK

5. Stick Is the first to strongly defend Amanuensis. The reasoning they brough up is fairly convincing, if looked at objectively. I think if this were brought before a 12-person jury, 9 would still believe Aman is guilty, but 3 would believe he is innocent, causing a split jury, which, at least in the US, results in a mistrial, and no conviction at the time. But it could also be a move for Elim!stick to get some village cred, when village!aman flips village. Seeing as they are the only one that stood up for the villager. Neutral read at this time.

6. CadCom,  Village read, of course. Obviously village. 

7. Rathmaskal, Given Drake's revelation that he is not the one to Soothe a vote off Rath, I'm still leaning that Rath soothed a vote off himself to help him survive. This would mean he is village for now. Slight village read. (in case I'm wrong) 

8. Shanerockes. Relatively inactive. Hard to get a read. Therefore, I'm putting them as slight elim. 

10. Devotary of Spontaneity, Interesting one. Multiple people have stated that they believe he seems to be playing in his village playstyle. But that could be because of the type of elim he is. I did notice that their recent mathematics was off, I think. 

Quote

They put this. 

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

D2: 10-1(3 lives) mislynch
N2: 9-1(3 lives) convert, kill
D3: 8-2(3 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N3: 8-2(2 lives + 2 lives) kill
D4: 7-2(2 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N4: 7-2(1 life + 2 lives) kill + spike C
D5: 6-2(1 life + 3 lives) lynch I
N5: 6-1(3 lives) kill
D6: 5-1(3 lives) mislynch
N6: 4-1(3 lives) kill
D7: 3-1(3 lives) lynch C
N7: 3-1(2 lives) kill
D8: 2-1(2 lives) lynch C
N8: 2-1(1 life) kill
D9: 1-1 game over unless the two vote minimum is retracted or we somehow have a rioter around.

When it should have been this.

D2: 10-1(3 lives) mislynch
N2: 9-1(3 lives) convert, kill
D3: 7-2(3 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N3: 7-2(2 lives + 2 lives) kill
D4: 6-2(2 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N4: 6-2(1 life + 2 lives) kill + spike C
D5: 5-2(1 life + 3 lives) lynch I
N5: 5-1(3 lives) kill
D6: 4-1(3 lives) mislynch
N6: 3-1(3 lives) kill
D7: 2-1(3 lives) lynch C
N7: 1-1(2 lives) kill
 1-1 game over unless the two vote minimum is retracted or we somehow have a rioter around.

Their math caused the game to be extended by a cycle and a half. This could have been an honest mistake, and I'm inclined to believe it was. But it also could have been a deliberate attempt to deceive the village to give them a false sense of security. It also assumes worst case scenario on actions, and best case scenario with a mislynch this cycle and one mislynch after the inquisitor is taken out. They also state that they can't advocate for the Seer or the Lurcher to claim, Possibly with the purpose of hoping one or the other does claim. If this is role madness, we should have a seer and a lurcher out there, but we can't guarantee who they are. Something about the post just seems off to me. This coupled with Devotary going pretty under the Radar equals Leaning Elim. 

11. Amanuensis is either definitely the inquisitor or definitely a seeker. Looking at the overall style of their posts for most of today, compared to the other days, the drunkenness excuse actually begins to make sense, as the posts have a much more terse, and brief tone. This suggests that an error on the metal used could have occurred. They at least chose an internal mental power. They just chose pushing instead of pulling or vice versa. Drunk!Aman could have made that mistake, I believe. I'm glad the hangover is wearing off now!

Claiming that someone else's role as well as your own this early is an extremely risky move for an elim to make, and I don't see elim!aman making that claim unless they in their drunkenness had believed they had solved the game. But as an elim, he would have wanted to keep that secret to himself, even if he was drunk. 

Alternatively, Elim!Aman could have found one of the most clever ways to get people to doubt their votes on him. I wanna hear Aman's thoughts on who might be a better target to vote for. 

12. Sart, I would say that Sart is somewhat quiet, but not inactive, which seems normal for Sart. I'm going to have to go off my previous read of Sart, where I put them in a neutral status. Also because I'm running out of time. If you want a better analysis of Sart, let me know, and I'll come back and perform that analysis in an hour or so

 

CONCLUSION

Amanuensis for now. My vote may return to Aman, but my gut wants to trust the claims that have been made. My biggest reads are Devotary and Fura, but I also have Xino, and Shanerocks as leaning elim due to their quietness, and I have Sart and Stick as Neutral.

*Double Ninja*

EDIT:

4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, with Aman claiming seeker now, it actually makes a bit more sense as to why he would have claimed roleless, so I'm definitely leaning a bit more toward this being a role madness game.  AND, since we have 4 claims now, would it be worth it for the remaining 8 players to claim?  I'm actually thinking it would...  (I know, I know, I'm usually not a fan of role claiming, but this game could be an exception with the tight timeline we have here.)

I disagree still, because then the Elim would be able to play a complete IKYK game with who they choose to convert. it puts it back in elim hands. At least now, we have some element of surprise over the inquisitor.
If everyone else wants to to a role reveal, then I will comply, I just disagree with it, as there are still powerful roles hidden. 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Furamirionind]

4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I'm slightly curious why Fura didn't see the V/V possibility of Aman being mistaken.  I guess we just put Aman up on a pedestal and assume he isn't going to make mistakes. *Cicada ninja*

Umm... basically, yeah. Lol.

4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, with Aman claiming seeker now, it actually makes a bit more sense as to why he would have claimed roleless, so I'm definitely leaning a bit more toward this being a role madness game.  AND, since we have 4 claims now, would it be worth it for the remaining 8 players to claim?  I'm actually thinking it would...  (I know, I know, I'm usually not a fan of role claiming, but this game could be an exception with the tight timeline we have here.)

I dont know. With how close we are, I am really concerned that the Inquisitor will spike a Thug, giving them 7 lives. If they do that, and we mislynch today, we lose...

We could solve that by having the Lurcher protect them, but then we lose the Lurcher...

The Seer is pretty valuable too...

I'd be open to the idea, but I'm a bit apprehensive about it.

Ninjad by cadcom.

[Furamirionind]

18 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

When it should have been this.

D2: 10-1(3 lives) mislynch
N2: 9-1(3 lives) convert, kill
D3: 7-2(3 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N3: 7-2(2 lives + 2 lives) kill
D4: 6-2(2 lives + 2 lives) lynch I
N4: 6-2(1 life + 2 lives) kill + spike C
D5: 5-2(1 life + 3 lives) lynch I
N5: 5-1(3 lives) kill
D6: 4-1(3 lives) mislynch
N6: 3-1(3 lives) kill
D7: 2-1(3 lives) lynch C
N7: 1-1(2 lives) kill
 1-1 game over unless the two vote minimum is retracted or we somehow have a rioter around.

Actually, you are incorrect too. : P

There are 2 spikes that can give extra lives, not 1. So that mislynch in there, has to be for lynching I as well.

Hence why today is likely our last mislynch.

If the Inquisitor feels like only using 1 of the Iron spike abilities though, I would greatly appreciate it. : P

Edit:

Oops, forgot I had just posted. Sorry for the double post.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

My logic behind insisting this game isn't role madness (essentially claiming Vanilla) was to mislead the Inquisitor and prolong my death. I originally was going to scan Devotary but decided to switch to Drake after the post I made last night. I began College again this week and I've been too busy to put as much effort into this game as I would normally, which is why my reads aren't very solid / I haven't done any analysis yet. It's also a part of why I claimed at all. I don't mind the Inquisitor killing me at this point, and I wanted to prevent the village from wasting any time on Drake and I in the mean time. We really need to find the Inquisitor ASAP, and with the number of players we have, I figured narrowing the list down even further would be our best bet.

At this time, I village read Devotary, Fura, and Cicada. I'm most suspicious of Stick in spite of her defending me. In a world where she is the Inquisitor, it makes a lot more sense to take the stance that I'm being honest, especially with so many votes on me already.

@DrakeMarshmallow why are you village reading her?

[CadCom]

@furamirionind I'm fairly certain that the kill+spike C on N4 was using the second spike, and the Kill+ COnvert on N2 was the first spike. that's why it jumps up to 2 lives for convert. 

Both of these calculations fail to consider the possibility of a thug though.

[Amanuensis]

Just want to point out that if I were the Inquisitor, I wouldn't publicly claim Seeker of all roles. Considering it only shows roles and not alignments, it would be fair to assume one exists in the game, and the second the real Seeker counter-claims, I'd be turned against. The only world in which my claim makes sense is the world in which it's honest.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Amanuensis

[CadCom]

Vote Count Now:

Aman (1) - Devotary

Stick (1) Aman.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Eh, fine. Everybody's had a chance to see Aman's Seeker claim and should have counterclaimed by now. The only one who might not have is @shanerockes

25 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Their math caused the game to be extended by a cycle and a half. This could have been an honest mistake, and I'm inclined to believe it was. But it also could have been a deliberate attempt to deceive the village to give them a false sense of security. It also assumes worst case scenario on actions, and best case scenario with a mislynch this cycle and one mislynch after the inquisitor is taken out.

I wrote convert+kill, but evidently didn't believe it. In either case, a mislynch after today is fatal while we can still survive by somehow having perfect lynches from D3 onwards. The convert lives increases by one because of the second spike, though since I was doing worst case potentially survivable scenario there was no chance that a D3 or D4 lynch would destroy a life granting spike. 

[Furamirionind]

D2: 10-1 (-mislynch) (I = 3)
N2: 09-1 (-convert,-kill) (I = 3)
D3: 07-2 (-mislynch) (I = 3, C = 2)
N3: 06-2 (-kill) (I = 3, C = 2)
D4: 05-2 (-Lynch I) (I = 3, C = 2)
N4: 05-2 (-kill) (I = 2, C = 2)
D5: 04-2 (-lynch I) (I = 2, C = 3)
N5: 04-2 (-kill) (I = 1, C = 3)
D6: 03-2 (-lynch I) (I = 1, C = 3)
N6: 03-1 (-kill) (I = 0, C = 3)
D7: 02-1 (-lynch C) (I = 0, C = 3)
N7: 02-1 (-kill) (I=0, C = 2)
D8: 01-1 (lynch C) (I = 0, C = 2)
N8: 01-1 (-kill) (I = 0, C = 1)
D9: 00-1 ---Elims win

@Cadmium Compounder you still had two possible mislynches in your math
Sorry, hit ctrl-enter instead of shift-enter

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Real edit:

If the convert is a thug, we lose if we mislynch today. If we lynch a thug, then we will probably want to keep lynching them until they are dead as they could be the inquisitor, meaning they will take multiple mislynches from us, and we will lose again.

D2: 10-1 (-mislynch) (I = 3)
N2: 09-1 (-convert,-kill) (I = 3)
D3: 07-2 (-lynch I) (I = 3, C = 2)
N3: 07-2 (-kill) (I = 2, C = 2)
D4: 06-2 (-Lynch I) (I = 2, C = 2)
N4: 06-2 (-kill) (I = 1, C = 2)
D5: 05-2 (-lynch I) (I = 1, C = 3)
N5: 05-1 (-kill) (I = 0, C = 3)
D6: 04-1 (-lynch C) (I = 0, C = 3)
N6: 04-1 (-kill) (I = 0, C = 2)
D7: 03-1 (-lynch C) (I = 0, C = 2)
N7: 03-1 (-kill) (I=0, C = 1)
D8: 02-1 (lynch C) (I = 0, C = 1)
N8: 02-0 (-kill) (I = 0, C = 0) Village wins.

If the vote minimum is 2, then we don't win parity, meaning we enter Lylo on D3, so if we hit a thug with the lynch today, we still lose.
If the vote minimum is retracted, then we enter Mylo on D3, meaning while we don't have an extra mislynch, we can hit a thug today and not lose.
 

Edited September 6, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

• Amanuensis: Seeker
• Rathmaskal: Soother
• DrakeMarshmallow: Soother
• Cicada: Coinshot

I'm personally not advocating any more role claims, but what's done is done, so we can rule these players out.

Devotary's vote on me without commenting makes me wary, but I'd like to trust my initial read of her. I'm still village reading Fura, and I'm willing to bet Xino and Shane are village, too.

Inquisitor is among Stick, CadCom and Sart, imo. Stick remains my top suspect.

Edited September 6, 2019 by Amanuensis

[CadCom]

I can't shake the feeling I have that the inquisitor is Devotary so I'm gonna put it out there. The reasons behind this vote are the reasons I expressed above. 

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With the four living players who have already claimed roles, and the two who are dead, that is six of the original 13 players with publicly known roles

I believe that is quite unusual, to have almost half of the roles already publicly revealed by D2. (Over half if we each count your own.) This should make for an interesting end game, as continuing will continue to reveal new roles, and soon, most roles will likely be revealed by the end of the game.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

22 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Inquisitor is among Stick, CadCom and Sart, imo. Stick remains my top suspect.

That would give a Seer a 50% chance of preventing a conversion entirely if true by blocking one of the people we don't lynch. I don't believe we're informed if a conversion occurs, so we won't know if a roleblock is successful, but I still think it's worth it for any Seers to take the chance and risk hitting a Lurcher. 

CadCom saying the game is probably not role madness makes it sound less likely that he has an allomantic role. We've had half the village prove an allomantic role, and I can say that I have an allomantic role as well without specifying what it is. We're pretty much at game over if we mislynch today and don't stop the convert, though it's close enough to rollover that even a mass claim might not find the Inquisitor. If it could, and we have a Lurcher/Seer team, it would be worth it. It in't impossible that roled!CadCom would claim not role madness though.

  I initially ruled Stick out for asking about how the Inquisitor gets scanned, which is more suspicious knowing she isn't a Seeker. I'm still somewhat leaning towards CadCom, but I would support either being roleblocked if the other flips village.

[Amanuensis]

I'm actually beginning to think CadCom is probably Village. It seems like he's been putting a lot of effort in his posts, and from my experience that's generally harder as an eliminator. Probably even more so considering they're alone right now.

[Stick.]

@Amanuensis Is PoE the only reasoning behind your suspicion? I’m trying to think of a way I can prove my alignment. But as it stands, I would rather not role claim.

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

That would give a Seer a 50% chance of preventing a conversion entirely if true by blocking one of the people we don't lynch. I don't believe we're informed if a conversion occurs, so we won't know if a roleblock is successful, but I still think it's worth it for any Seers to take the chance and risk hitting a Lurcher. 

*IKYK has entered the chat*  

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I initially ruled Stick out for asking about how the Inquisitor gets scanned, which is more suspicious knowing she isn't a Seeker.

Honestly, I would’ve asked that question in PM if I was a Seeker:P 

It’s been a long day so I’m going to bed for now but I promise I’ll think about the lynch tomorrow morning. I’m currently keeping a close eye on Shane and Sart, and Devotary’s in the little grey area as always. Fura I’m not sure about...leaning village I think, but idk. I haven’t forgotten LG55!Fura xD