Lumgol Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 The Night is now over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumgol Posted September 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 I apologize for the lack of a writeup I simply have too much homework and various things to do. - - - Day 2 has begun! The Day will end on Saturday, September 7, at 12:30 PM PDT. Butt Ad Venture has died! They were a Village Smoker. Here are the rules. Player list: Spoiler 1. Furamirionind, as A Character 2. Cicada, as Ada 3. Xinoehp512, as Demmanu 4. DrakeMarshmallow, as Tersin Forrelken 5. Stick 6. CadCom, as Tom 7. Rathmaskal, as Rath the Rapper 8. Shanerockes 9. Butt Ad Venture, as Cornelius Steel (Smoker) 10. Devotary of Spontaneity, as Moud 11. Amanuensis, as Octun Renaud 12. Sart, as Sari 13. Snipexe (Rioter) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 That's an interesting kill. Inquisitor was aiming for a power role? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Possibly. He was also fairly trusted. I would assume from this though the Inquisitor already has decided who they want to convert. If they weren't certain, I think they would have prioritized someone experienced with analysis like Aman/Devotary/Drake/Aman/CadCom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Furamirionind said: Possibly. He was also fairly trusted. I would assume from this though the Inquisitor already has decided who they want to convert. If they weren't certain, I think they would have prioritized someone experienced with analysis like Aman/Devotary/Drake/Aman/CadCom. I like how you included me twice I'm no longer suspicious of Drake since it appears he wasn't online after Venture made it clear he had a role. Leaves my remaining suspects as Stick, Rath, Fura and Devotary. No particular order, but I think I would like Stick dead the most (nothing personal). ED1T: Forgot CadCom. Need to analyze him. ED2T: Nevermind on the Drake thing. He was online two hours ago, but didnt post. Did anyone happen to see him viewing the thread? Edited September 5, 2019 by Amanuensis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rathmaskal Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 I view two who seem not new I'd like to view Aman a plan a canal panama claims nothing at all Awake Drake could be the snake 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CadCom Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Huh. Its interesting that the inquisitor chose to kill someone who was relatively cleared as Village. Having a strong village clear later on in the game could be an advantage because we would all be asking questions about whether or not they were the converted. On second thought, because we had essentially hard-cleared butt ad venture, so we were never going to vote for him, meaning if the inquisitor had killed anyone else, it would have narrowed it down more for us. At first I was thinking that this move represented a relatively inexperienced elim, but it could also have been made by anyone regardless of experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 13 hours ago, Amanuensis said: I currently harbor the opinion that the Inquisitor voted yesterday. Why? Either this is a fairly reckless intuitive leap or there are reasons I haven't perceived yet. Your theory is probably correct, due to the proportion of active players who voted, but I'm not sure it's useful, because I can't think of a reason why the inquisitor in particular would benefit more from voting than anyone else does. Quote Addendum: Fura jokingly suggests a mass claim in thread, which I would not expect of most Inquisitors. I think I'll go all in on a Villager read for this alone. Good catch. A point in Fura's favor. Quote Drake Marshmallow: I agree with Devotary's logic in the post where they voted for Drake, though not necessarily the reason they voted for Drake. I need to find specifics of why, but I noticed several players finding mixed signals in his posts. Generally if a player is a Villager and posts enough times as Drake has, it should be fairly easy to determine their alignment. Any amount of doubt could equate to their "guilt" bleeding through. I'm also uncomfortable with their Village read of Stick. I for one am not so certain about her alignment and don't fully understand the reasoning. Like with Fura and their read of me, I'm concerned about this being a potential pocket. Huh. At the risk of sounding biased on the issue (which, I probably am), your accusation against me sounds quite disingenuous. "I noticed several players finding mixed signals in his posts" If I understand you very well at all, you are not naturally inclined towards leaning on other people's arguments. In the exceptional cases that you do, you are generally not nearly as vague about citing those arguments. The wording just feels manipulative. What the wording actually accomplishes, is not that it gives an actual reason, it is encouraging anyone for whom your vague wording might apply to vote for me. This kind of approach sets off alarm bells, specifically, the exact same ones that were going off in LG56. When you tried to get me mislynched. "Generally if a player is a Villager and posts enough times as Drake has, it should be fairly easy to determine their alignment." I am fairly certain that you are also aware that generally if a player is a Villager and posts as often as I do, it is fairly easy to find inconsistencies and nitpicks. I wouldn't expect this to excuse me from suspicion, but I kind of would expect it to be a consideration. Also, for what it's worth, I guess I don't think it should be that hard to determine my alignment? You yourself have said you have not had the opportunity to read my posts carefully, so it is rather unclear that I am at fault if you are experiencing difficulty in determining my alignment. "Any amount of doubt could equate to their "guilt" bleeding through." Again, this feels much more like an encouragement for those who have a bad gut read on me to vote than it is an actual reason. "Like with Fura and their read of me, I'm concerned about this being a potential pocket." I do not find this point particularly suspicious, but I do disagree with it wholeheartedly, on the grounds that I literally can't remember the last game I've played as a villager where I haven't been accused of pocketing. Literally the only game in the recent past where I haven't been accused of pocketing en masse was the one where I actually was playing to an evil win con. 30 minutes ago, Amanuensis said: I like how you included me twice I'm no longer suspicious of Drake since it appears he wasn't online after Venture made it clear he had a role. Leaves my remaining suspects as Stick, Rath, Fura and Devotary. No particular order, but I think I would like Stick dead the most (nothing personal). ED1T: Forgot CadCom. Need to analyze him. ED2T: Nevermind on the Drake thing. He was online two hours ago, but didnt post. Did anyone happen to see him viewing the thread? I was online briefly to skim the thread. I didn't notice Venture's claim. I probably still would have considered killing Venture on account of them being all but confirmed. Why Stick in particular? 4 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said: Awake Drake could be the snake Independent of my alignment, this rhyme pleases me We don't have many tries, so it's time for some analysis. I feel pretty confident that if the reasoning I made was valid last cycle, that it is still valid. The only call I made that was particularly questionable was trusting Stick, and I am happily willing to bet the game on Stick being a villager. So, going off my narrowed-down suspect list from last cycle: Furamirionind Rathmaskal Butt Ad Venture Amanuensis Removing Venture on account of being dead and Fura on account of me adjusting my read of her. Also, adding CadCom, who was removed from my list last cycle mainly because I didn't feel like voting on them twice in a row. Amanuensis CadCom Rathmaskal My suspicions more or less follow in that order. I am somewhat less suspicious of Rath due to the probability that they are a soother. Both by hunting for guilt and by independently using PoE on those I don't think are guilty, it would seem that I have converged on Aman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Eh. I'm a Seeker and Drake is a Rioter. Let's not waste time on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanerockes Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Hey folks. Sorry I didn't say anything the Night Cycle. I worked yesterday and been busy today. I'll try to speak more later on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) Drake is clear, I am clear. What's the alternatives? Ed1T: Okay so Civada is probably okay since they are new. I believe Fura and Devotary are probably good. Not certain on Stick or CadCom. I would lean Rath village Edited September 5, 2019 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicada Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Did anyone see anything unusual last night? I didn't do anything that might have altered the outcome. I was too worried I'd hinder village efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xinoehp512 Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 Man, I am out of practice with SE. Granted, I was never the best at it in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Eh. I'm a Seeker and Drake is a Rioter. Let's not waste time on this. Alright, we'd need Drake to confirm, but it's a gutsy claim to make if Aman was the Inquisitor. Since PMs aren't open this game, Drake's role (if he has that role) couldn't leak through that method. If Aman was guessing as the Inquisitor, I doubt he would guess Rioter, since that role had already been killed. @DrakeMarshmallow please confirm your role. Okay, so if we assume that Drake is a Rioter, and Aman is a Seeker, that limits the suspect pool. I'm going to hesitantly say that @Rathmaskal is probably a Soother, but I would also like confirmation on that one. So the remaining suspect pool is: Furamirionind, Cicada, Xinoehp512, Stick, Cadmium Compounder, Shanerockes, Devotary of Spontaneity, Sart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furamirionind Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Cicada said: Did anyone see anything unusual last night? I didn't do anything that might have altered the outcome. I was too worried I'd hinder village efforts. Dont worry too much about hindering the village. As long as you are talking in thread, you are doing your job as part of the village. If you think something will be fun, do it! Last game I played, there was a mechanic where if you got enough currency, you could pay 40 and win the game, and make everyone else lose. I made a deal with Drake where we would help each other reach that goal. We were both village, and that could have hurt the village pretty bad, but it was fun, and that what is important. (It ended up Drake didnt need my help and went on with the solo win without me :'( ) 23 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said: Man, I am out of practice with SE. Granted, I was never the best at it in the first place. Dont worry about being out of practice. As long as you are talking, you are doing good. I dont remember my questions to you from night 1, but would you mind answering those? I think you are village, and would like to hear your thoughts more. : ) thanks! 14 minutes ago, Sart said: Alright, we'd need Drake to confirm, but it's a gutsy claim to make if Aman was the Inquisitor. Since PMs aren't open this game, Drake's role (if he has that role) couldn't leak through that method. If Aman was guessing as the Inquisitor, I doubt he would guess Rioter, since that role had already been killed. @DrakeMarshmallow please confirm your role. Okay, so if we assume that Drake is a Rioter, and Aman is a Seeker, that limits the suspect pool. I'm going to hesitantly say that @Rathmaskal is probably a Soother, but I would also like confirmation on that one. So the remaining suspect pool is: Furamirionind, Cicada, Xinoehp512, Stick, Cadmium Compounder, Shanerockes, Devotary of Spontaneity, Sart I think we can take Cicada, Xino, and Fura ( ) out of that list. Also, Devotary is in my towncore iirc. I'll make a real post after my robotics meeting and once I'm at a computer again. Edit: I also dont think Shane would have killed Venture, so I'd take him out too. Edited September 5, 2019 by Furamirionind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted September 5, 2019 Report Share Posted September 5, 2019 3 hours ago, Furamirionind said: Possibly. He was also fairly trusted. I would assume from this though the Inquisitor already has decided who they want to convert. If they weren't certain, I think they would have prioritized someone experienced with analysis like Aman/Devotary/Drake/Aman/CadCom. I would say there's a decent chance the Inquisitor saw Aman's post about the Inquisitor having voted and decided to kill someone outside that group. If that was true, other candidates would be Cicada, Shanerockes, and Amanuensis. Venture claiming a role probably didn't help. It had previously seemed that CadCom was considering/hoping for a role madness game, Quote Additionally, I noticed that there are 10 allomantic Roles, and 12 Village players. I can only hope that everyone is given a role, and that there are double of some roles, in case we lose an important role early on. but it's not definitive and CadCom is now supporting the theory that roleless villagers exist. 1 hour ago, Amanuensis said: Eh. I'm a Seeker and Drake is a Rioter. Let's not waste time on this. Seekers aren't as powerful as in some other games, but I still wouldn't expect there to be more than one. Drake being a rioter would mean three vote manipulators, and that Drake didn't bother to use his ability. Iron can only protect against killing or spiking, so the two of you will be difficult to protect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicada Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 Might as well just confirm that I'm a Coinshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Cicada said: Might as well just confirm that I'm a Coinshot. I would have preferred it if you didnt since I already had you as village. But too late now. Edited September 6, 2019 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicada Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 Apologies. Some people seemed doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amanuensis Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Cicada said: Apologies. Some people seemed doubtful. No need for apologise. I honestly should not have claimed but I'm a little impatient and I don't feel like dealing with doubts. Edited September 6, 2019 by Amanuensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 4 hours ago, Amanuensis said: Eh. I'm a Seeker and Drake is a Rioter. Let's not waste time on this. Hah. Nice guess, but no. Even if you did have an accurate scan on me, which you don't, you wouldn't have waited to disclose it, since you already suspected me. You were really close, though. I'm seriously impressed with how close you got to clearing yourself. I'm pretty sure I know what gave me away as a vote manipulator. I'm a Soother though, not a Rioter. @everyone, I am now 100% certain Aman is evil. I don't say that lightly. Aman just lied about being a Seeker, and unless the GMs step forward and announce that they have made a mistake, I cannot conceive of any possible way Aman is anything but evil. Aman being evil doesn't guarantee that he is the inquisitor (who is obviously a higher priority lynch target), but given that it was stuff he said last cycle that was setting off my suspicions in the first place, which prompted him to take a stab at guessing my role, it's still extremely probable that Aman is the inquisitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumgol Posted September 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said: @everyone, I am now 100% certain Aman is evil. I don't say that lightly. Aman just lied about being a Seeker, and unless the GMs step forward and announce that they have made a mistake, I cannot conceive of any possible way Aman is anything but evil. I have not made a mistake. Otherwise I will not say anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicada Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 What's your evidence against Aman? Merely your own role claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrakeMarshall Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cicada said: What's your evidence against Aman? Merely your own role claim? Yes. Aman claimed to be a Seeker who scanned me as a Rioter. This was an intelligent guess, but I'm not a Rioter. Thus, I know for certain that Aman is evil. I am asking you to take my word for it, but, consider: If I were lying, well, that would almost certainly mean Aman is telling the truth. But Aman just claimed that I am cleared, since both Inquisitors and converted persons would not come up as a Rioter on a scan. Ergo, I probably can't be lying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cicada Posted September 6, 2019 Report Share Posted September 6, 2019 I don't see why Aman would lie about such a thing. Do you know? To build cred in future sessions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts