Long Game 59: Shadows and Spikes

[Furamirionind]

Ok, 13 players. There will definitely be a kill tonight, with no kill either N2 or 3 for the convert. If we arnt going to have a D1 lynch, we also probably dont want a D2 lynch as the soonest there will be an elim team is D3.

With D1 Lynch:

C1: 12-1
C2: 10-1 (-lynch, -kill)
C3:   8-2 (-lynch, convert)
C4:   6-1 (-lynch, convert)
C5:  4-2 (-lynch, convert)
C6:  2-2 (-lynch, convert) -elim win

------------------

The inquisitor will likely use at least 1-2 spikes for conversion/fun stuff. However, if they leave 5 uncharged, that gives them 6 lives.
Note: my table is done so everything under a given cycle, is how that cycle starts, meaning it is the result of the previous cycle. At the start of this cycle, there are all the players and roles, and no one has taken any actions, which is why it is like that in the table.
Another Note: I normally do worst case scenario things, but if the inquisitor only charges Iron and Atium (with Iron powers), and then waits until the last couple cycles, and plants them both on a convert...
I believe that is the worst case scenario, and if that happens, that may be an almost guaranteed elim win. So I'm not even going to bother looking at that scenario.
 

Spoiler

 

D1 Lynch, 5 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 10-1 (-mislynch, -kill)
C3:   8-2 (-mislynch, convert)
C4:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) 5 lives remaining
C5:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C6:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C7:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C8:   3-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C9:   2-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -lylo

D1 Lynch, 4 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 10-1 (-mislynch, -kill)
C3:   8-2 (-mislynch, convert)
C4:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) 
C5:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C6:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C7:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C8:   3-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C9:   2-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -lylo

 

So with a C1 lynch, we have to be hitting elims every cycle from C3 onward to not lose. This gives us 2-3 mis-lynches depending on how many spikes the Inquisitor uses. if they use only 1 spike, we have 2 mislynches before we lose, if they use more than 1 spike, I believe we have 3 mislynches... However, I have not factored in Atium and Iron, as they may make our mis-lynches go down.

 

Spoiler

 

No D1 lynch, D2 lynch, 5 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   9-2 (-mislynch, convert)
C4:   8-2 (-lynch, -kill) 5 lives remaining
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C7:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C8:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C9:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -mylo

No D1 lynch, D2 lynch, 4 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   9-2 (-mislynch, convert)
C4:   7-2 (-mislynch, -kill) 
C5:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C6:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C7:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C8:   3-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C9:   2-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -lylo

 

 

So with no lynch D1 and with a lynch D2, we get 1-2 mislynches... This is a little scary I think.

 

Spoiler

No D1 or D2 lynch, 5 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3: 10-2 (convert)

C4:   8-2 (-mislynch,-kill)
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) 5 lives remaining
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C7:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C8:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C9:   3-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C10: 2-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -lylo

No D1 or D2 lynch, 4 spikes uncharged:

C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   10-2 (convert)
C4:   8-2 (-mislynch, -kill) 
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) 4 lives remaining
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) 3 lives remaining
C7:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) 2 lives remaining
C8:   4-2 (-lynch, -kill) 1 lives remaining
C9:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) inquisitor dead -mylo

Just a note, if the spike used to convert is Atium(Iron) or Iron, then any instance where we are in Lylo is an instant lose, and any where we are in Mylo is Lylo.

Conclusion:
I think we should lynch someone today. By lynching someone today, we get a bonus mislynch, which is about a 7.5% chance of catching the elim today.

I'll put my vote on CadCom to add a bit of pressure.

CadCom

---

Edit:

Um, nope, i don't like the CadCom lynch due to:

2 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Oh, I actually had one more question.

Does this mean if the first convert is killed, at that point they may make a second convert?

inquisitor!CadCom might ask that question in thread, but being D1, this is enough to deter me from him.

@Cicada- Neutral
What would you do if you were an Inquisitor this game?

@xinoehp512 - yet to post

DrakeMarshmallow - Neutral, maybe Slight Village?
I like what Drake is doing, and it is still providing info while advocating a No-Lynch. i want to give Drake a slight village read, but I think Elim!Drake would do the same thing...

Stick - Neutral
idk why,  when skimming the thread, I keep coming back to reread Stick's post. it feels a little strange to me, but not enough to even be a gut read. Just... idk. I'd like to hear some more from Stick... Hopefully homework isn't too bad this early in the year?
I hear that some schools give tons of homework right away, and some slowly ramp you up. Idk, I've always been homeschooled. : )

CadCom - Neutral, maybe Slight Village?
I don't want to lynch D1, but after today, the quote above isn't much deterrence.

Rathmaskal - Village
Gut village read. Mostly from the rap. xD
Just feels like village Rath to me.

Shanerockes - Slight Village
Lol, I can't even quote the Grammarly user. : P
I'd have to look back on Shane's last elim game, which i think was LG52, but the attitude of "everyone should live a cycle" seems contrary (iirc) to his methodology of playing as an elim.

Butt Ad Venture - Village

6 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

There is only one Eliminator currently, but by D2 there will be 2 eliminators.

Actually, there won't be 2 eliminators until D3 if I understand the rules correctly. I don't think Venture would say this as an elim.
Also, this is paired with a mild village gut read from the tone of the post.

Devotary - Neutral
I always read Devotary as Neutral, and always just wait for PoE to say it is her to vote as I can never read her... But it always seems to bite me when I wait so long.

Amanuensis - Village
Honestly, while I might count not wanting a D1 vote against some people, I think this is totally a village!Aman thing. When village, he has had a streak of only voting on elims iirc, and a D1 vote is basically just chance, so it would be foolish to ruin that streak here. xD
Oh, and being busy makes sense too. An elim could easily leave a vote on under the excuse of being busy.

Sart - Village
Village read for pushing a D1 lynch.

@Snipexe - Yet to post

For right now, I'll vote on Stick... I think she gets on before rollover... 
Just realized the thread has only been up 24 hours... So there is still time i think. So yes, I'll vote on Stick.

_Stick_

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Furamirionind
Realized my math was for 5/4 spikes, not 6/5 || Added second post to not double post, greened out past votes to not get confusing when tallying vote counts

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Yay, a reasonably active thread 

I have classes to get to right now, but for now, Snip. My poke appears not to have worked, which is really quite unfortunate, but I don’t think keeping my vote there will be constructive.

In the interests of continuing to pretend that we are going to lynch somebody, Cadmium @Cadmium Compounder. I am not in principle opposed to randomness to choose votes, having done so myself once or twice, but your use of it seems mildly suspect.

You don’t want a lynch, but you feel you ought to vote anyway because you believe a lynch is inevitable, and you can at least direct the outcome. This is well and good. I can get behind that. But if that is where you are coming from, why vote according to RNG? What RNG voting accomplishes is pushing for a lynch without any particular direction, which is almost exactly the opposite of what you said you wanted.

Probably I am simply misunderstanding your thought process, but I would be grateful for an explanation.

At this point, I had no reason to direct any outcome as I had no preference for where the outcome was directed. I also don't have any reason to put pressure on any inactives, as having been tagged once should be as much as they need to see that the game is in full swing. For this reason I chose randomly. I also stated that it would probably change. But the main reason I placed a random vote is just to have a vote down. Voting in general allows me to guage any reactions to my votes. 

Some analysis on players after a few measley posts might now be in order, (Removing those who haven't posted. Snip and Xino)

1. Furamirionind, (Ninjad by Fura's edit right here) Their first post is a list of questions. While seeing a post like this is relatively common, I can't remember how often the post comes from Fura. Also, I know that asking questions is probably NAI, but I don't usually see it as a good sign for the person. Sometimes what you know is different from how you perceive a situation. This is one of those cases.

Second post offers more analyzable material. (If anything can be analyzed accurately D1) The analysis of WCS (Worst case Scenario) is generally NAI I think, as it could also be considered a Best case scenario by the Inquisitor) And it's easy to rename something for the thread.

There was also a point in time where Fura had a vote on me, which seemed to mostly be piggy-backing off of Drake's vote. Usually I don't like piggy back votes early on, but it was removed relatively quick after, so I will forgive that vote. I will point out that usually, when I'm an eliminator, I try not to ask elim-related questions in thread, as I prefer to leave the questions unanswered for the majority of people. This is IKYK, but yeah. Result. Slightly suspect gut read. Not much in the way of actual evidence. 

2. Cicada, Hi. I haven't played with you before have I? Is this your first game? I've been absent for a couple games so if it isn't I'm sorry. But nice to have you join us. Posts seem relatively neutral, but they(She?) piggybacked off of Aman regarding why they won't be voting today. My gut actually leans village slightly on this, as some had already suggested voting by this time.

I've returned here, after getting a few people down. I read another post that I skimmed over earlier, and It really gives me a pretty good village lead as of now. Of course with conversion everything changes D2 (Or more likely D3)

4. DrakeMarshmallow, Discusses reason not to vote, then proceeds to vote. But like he said, there probably would be a vote, so it makes sense to act as if there will be one. NAI.

Later they vote for me, I read through that post, and I can see it as one of two things. 1, Someone to frame. or 2, Honest analysis. I honestly see it more as an honest analysis, for now. Slight gut village read.  

5. Stick Just one post so far. While I don't particularly agree with Fura's analysis of Stick's post, I don't disagree either. However, I will currently look at it as NAI. I see stick is currently viewing the thread, so I'll see if anything changes. 

6. CadCom, 

7. Rathmaskal, rapping. It seems that he agrees that there should not be a lynch, but also wants to keep working it out. 

8. Shanerockes, Is it true you use grammarly? I had grammarly as a plug-in on chrome and I hated what it did with 17th Shard. I've since moved to a different computer, and haven't re-installed Grammarly. I can't remember if there's a way to stop grammarly from working on one website, but if so, you may want to, as it does weird things to your posts. You may be interested in this post by me. 

 

Anyway, that has nothing to do with this game. So far, one post, which is NAI. No read. 

9. Butt Ad Venture, Currently no vote, as they have removed their poke vote. Not much analysis of their own, and also RP. Yay! Gut leans slight elim. 

10. Devotary of Spontaneity, A very good mechanical analysis. I'll lean village. 

11. Amanuensis, I'm inclined to lean village here because they had the same conclusion as I had, to not vote yet. I just went against my conclusions

12. Sart, I read your post multiple times through, and it has caused me to reconsider my position on voting. . 1 in 6 chance of hitting the inquisitor before he spikes anyone is pretty good. But it's also a risk because we could possibly lose 1 or 2 people. But 1 in 6 does fall above my personal 15% rule (Mentioned above). But the rules have also been bent to do so. 

In conclusion, no solid reads, and only gut reads. It's hard for me to lynch based off a gut read. 

I think that I still will vote, as I have about a day to do so, but I will hold off for now, as I'm not sure where to go from here. Perhaps I'll have time to do a role analysis.

 

[Lumgol]

8 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Wow, I havent been tagged for inactivity in a while... granted, it's still the first day so... : P

@Lumgol @Coop772 to charge a spike, must the inquisitor be attempting to charge it, while killing an allomancer, or does it charge regardless of role?

if the inquisitor gives themself an extra life via Iron, what happens if they get lynched? Do they loose their extra life, or a spike?

If the inquisitor converts no one, do they have 7 extra lives?

When a player is attacked and survives, are we told they were attacked?

If we are told they are attacked and survived, does the writeup differentiate between surviving via Thug VS Lurcher?

Can the Lurcher just target themselves every night the entire game?

Can a coinshot redirect day actions, such as Soother and Rioter actions?

If the inquisitor attacked Maill, and a Tineye scanned him, would they see the Inquisitor targetting Mail, or does it only work with allomantic targets?

If someone is inherantly a misting, but then is spiked with something, will a Seeker see both metals, proving they were converted? Similarly, if the inquisitor spikes themselves twice or more, will all of those spikes show up on the scan?

Can a smoker smoke 1 person total, or 1 person and/or themselves?

Can a smoker be redirected by a coinshot?

If an inquisitor spikes their convert with Iron on the same turn that convert is atta... oh wait, no vig this game. XD

A spike charges regardless of role.

If the Inquisitor spikes themselves with iron, and they are lynched, the extra life is lost and a random uncharged spike is destroyed. Once the Inquisitor loses all lives, the iron spike (and any other spikes that the Inquisitor is spiked with) is destroyed.

Spikes that the Inquisitor possesses do not grant the Inquisitor extra lives. The Inquisitor has 3 lives flat, unless they spike themselves with iron. Conversion does not use up the Inquisitor's extra lives.

When a player is attacked and survives, it is indicated in the writeup, but does not differentiate between Thug, Lurcher, iron spike, etc.

Lurchers are allowed to target themselves every night. They have to differentiate in their actions whether they are protecting someone from the elim kill or conversion.

A Coinshot may redirect day actions, and those actions are redirected during the following day.

A Tineye will scan conversions as the Inquisitor targeting someone. If the Inquisitor charges a spike with the kill at night (say on Maill), the Tineye will learn that the Inquisitor targeted Maill. However, if a spike is not charged, the elim kill is a group action and therefore is not trackable by a Tineye.

To the question about Seekers scanning if someone is both an allomancer and Spiked, or if they have been spiked with multiple spikes, yes. The Seeker will learn all metals that the player uses. However, allomancy and hemalurgy will not be differentiated, and if the metals are the same (i.e. a lurcher spiked with iron) the Seeker will only learn the one metal.

The Smoker can smoke 1 person total.

A Smoker may be redirected by a Coinshot.

8 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

@Lumgol, @Coop772, does Seeking happen before spiking?

Seeking happens after Spiking.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

@Lumgol If the vote is a tie with all lynchees having only one vote, do they all still die, or is there a 2 vote minimum?

There will be a 2 vote minimum.

58 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

"Seeker - Can choose a player and learn all metals that their role is associated with, if any." So isnt the inquisitor role technically 'associated' with all the spikes? Because they possess one of each spike at the start of the game. So will all 7 metals show up on a Seeker scan? .If so, hehe tough luck, inquizyboi

 

I was gonna ask the same question, because shouldnt this mean charging a spike does NOT count as an action?

If the Inquisitor is scanned, the spikes they possess will not be revealed as metals. So, if the Inquisitor spikes themselves with, say, Iron, a seeker scan will reveal them as using Iron but no other metals.

7 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Oh, I actually had one more question.

Does this mean if the first convert is killed, at that point they may make a second convert?

Yes.

[Cicada]

14 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

2. Cicada, Hi. I haven't played with you before have I? Is this your first game? I've been absent for a couple games so if it isn't I'm sorry. But nice to have you join us. Posts seem relatively neutral, but they(She?) piggybacked off of Aman regarding why they won't be voting today. My gut actually leans village slightly on this, as some had already suggested voting by this time.

I've returned here, after getting a few people down. I read another post that I skimmed over earlier, and It really gives me a pretty good village lead as of now. Of course with conversion everything changes D2 (Or more likely D3)

 

 

 

I am indeed a new player. She/her pronouns are best, thanks. It's great to be here!

[Lumgol]

5 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

September 4th?  Or Tuesday?  I'm assuming it's the 4th.

Thank you Rath. I meant September 4th.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

At this point, I had no reason to direct any outcome as I had no preference for where the outcome was directed. I also don't have any reason to put pressure on any inactives, as having been tagged once should be as much as they need to see that the game is in full swing. For this reason I chose randomly. I also stated that it would probably change. But the main reason I placed a random vote is just to have a vote down. Voting in general allows me to guage any reactions to my votes. 

While I agree it's probably a bit early to go after people yet to post, I do want to point out that both Snip and Xino have been online since they were tagged.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

1. Furamirionind, (Ninjad by Fura's edit right here) Their first post is a list of questions. While seeing a post like this is relatively common, I can't remember how often the post comes from Fura. Also, I know that asking questions is probably NAI, but I don't usually see it as a good sign for the person. Sometimes what you know is different from how you perceive a situation. This is one of those cases.

The most recent time I recall me posting something like this, was probably LG55 
And I'll be 100% honest, I wanted to be the Inquisitor so bad this game. xD

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

Spikes that the Inquisitor possesses do not grant the Inquisitor extra lives. The Inquisitor has 3 lives flat, unless they spike themselves with iron. Conversion does not use up the Inquisitor's extra lives.

Oh, awesome! Idk how I messed that up.  Let's see...

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

6 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Oh, I actually had one more question.

Does this mean if the first convert is killed, at that point they may make a second convert?

Yes.

Ok, so we need to kill the inquisitor first...

---

If I was the Inquisitor, first thing would be to get Iron charged for a convert.  Then, naturally, convert someone.  After that, Atium should be charged asap as it can be reused and given different powers, it's the most valuable. But... If the elim team is playing to win, they'd probably pick Iron for that too, even though it's not the most exciting metal. If I assume they are playing to win:

Need to lynch 6 times.
(I)nquisitor: 3 innate lives, 1 extra. 4 total
(C)onvert: 1 innate life, 1 extra, 2 total

D1 Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 10-1 (-mislynch, -kill)
C3:   8-2 (-mislynch, -convert)
C4:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C5:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C6:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C7:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C8:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Lylo

D1 No-Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   9-2 (-mislynch, -convert)
C4:   8-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C7:   5-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C8:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Mylo

D1/D2 no-Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   10-2 (-convert)
C4:   8-2 (-mislynch, -kill)
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C7:   5-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C8:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C9:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Lylo

So if the elim team plays optimally, we get 1 mislynch with a no-lynch, and 2 with a lynch today.  In most games, when you hit an elim, you gain an extra mislynch, as you are removing voting power from the elims, however in this game, it is difficult to make them lose voting power, as a new convert can just be created. So if C4 we hit the inquisitor, but then decide that it was a thug, and lynch a villager, I believe we lose if they have used both Iron and Atium.

If someone wants to double check my math/predictions, it would be appreciated...

Edited September 3, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Rathmaskal]

Fura, your math is making this seem like a rather tough game to win.  Please make better math.

You do make a good point about the efficacy of a D1 lynch.  Having an extra potential mislynch is likely more useful than extending the game an extra cycle just because more people are alive.

~~

I was going to try to create something rappy about that...but it's just not going to happen right now...sorry.  Definitely wouldn't have been able to get the message across.

[DrakeMarshall]

The explanation makes sense, even if I don’t fully agree with the methodology. Cadmium.

Those calculations are concerning, to say the least. Seems like we don’t really have many chances to get it right. I can imagine a few ways for an inquisitor to exploit that.

Hrm.

[Lumgol]

Just as a warning: I do not think I will be able to be online exactly at rollover tomorrow. I will probably come around approximately 15 minutes late. However, I still expect everyone to stop posting at 12:30 PM tomorrow  

[DrakeMarshall]

Much better. Ah, how I've missed being able to type on a computer 

 

Fura's calculations are somewhat disheartening for the prospects of the village, but if I understand them correctly, it is actually in the village's interest to have a D1 lynch. And either way, I am still pretending we are going to do one.

Down to business:

1. Furamirionind - Neutral. Behaving a little differently in terms of asking so many questions and doing calculations on the game duration, but I am willing to call that NAI for the time being because Fura is the type to intentionally tweak their playstyle in each new game.

2. Cicada - Welcome aboard  I swear we don't bite most of the times

3. Xinoehp512 - Hasn't posted.

4. DrakeMarshmallow - Me! 

5. Stick - Village read. This particular post strikes me as fairly sincere:

Quote

So isnt the inquisitor role technically 'associated' with all the spikes? Because they possess one of each spike at the start of the game. So will all 7 metals show up on a Seeker scan? .If so, hehe tough luck, inquizyboi

6. CadCom - Neutral, following their response to my vote. I also appreciate the reads list. I also appreciate that their RP character likes to hoard all the shiny boxings 

7. Rathmaskal - ??? good rap though

8. Shanerockes - Doesn't appear to have said much.

9. Butt Ad Venture - Voted for Stick for reasons I don't fully understand and then retracted. Did some neat RP. Neutral.

10. Devotary of Spontaneity - Slight village read due to unspecified particulars of their mechanical analysis.

11. Amanuensis - Neutral. I don't really expect any easy tells here, at least not in the timeframe of the first cycle.

12. Sart - Slight village read. Generally it feels like where Sart is coming from in this game is the same as village!Sart usually.

13. Snipexe - Hasn't posted yet.

 

Eliminating inactives, people I trust, or people I am otherwise unwilling to vote for:

Furamirionind

Rathmaskal

Butt Ad Venture

Amanuensis

 

That's not even a very big group. This is workable.

I arbitrarily select Rath, mostly on the grounds that they already have a vote. @Rathmaskal I don't suppose that you could convince me otherwise?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

If I was the Inquisitor, first thing would be to get Iron charged for a convert.  Then, naturally, convert someone.  After that, Atium should be charged asap as it can be reused and given different powers, it's the most valuable. But... If the elim team is playing to win, they'd probably pick Iron for that too, even though it's not the most exciting metal. If I assume they are playing to win:

 

Need to lynch 6 times.
(I)nquisitor: 3 innate lives, 1 extra. 4 total
(C)onvert: 1 innate life, 1 extra, 2 total

D1 Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 10-1 (-mislynch, -kill)
C3:   8-2 (-mislynch, -convert)
C4:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C5:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C6:   5-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C7:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C8:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Lylo

D1 No-Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   9-2 (-mislynch, -convert)
C4:   8-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C7:   5-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C8:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Mylo

D1/D2 no-Lynch
C1: 12-1
C2: 11-1 (-kill)
C3:   10-2 (-convert)
C4:   8-2 (-mislynch, -kill)
C5:   7-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 3 lives left
C6:   6-2 (-lynch, -kill) -I 2 lives left
C7:   5-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I 1 lives left
C8:   4-1 (-lynch, -kill) -I deaded
C9:   3-1 (-lynch, -kill) -Lylo

So if the elim team plays optimally, we get 1 mislynch with a no-lynch, and 2 with a lynch today.  In most games, when you hit an elim, you gain an extra mislynch, as you are removing voting power from the elims, however in this game, it is difficult to make them lose voting power, as a new convert can just be created. So if C4 we hit the inquisitor, but then decide that it was a thug, and lynch a villager, I believe we lose if they have used both Iron and Atium.

If someone wants to double check my math/predictions, it would be appreciated...

It's slightly better than this, as lynching the Inquisitor has a chance of destroying an iron/atium spike while Lurcher protections and Thug extra lives will slow down casualty rates. 1-1 during the day can still be a win even with a two vote minimum, but we can't count on that especially with the zinc spike potentially floating around. In the best case scenario, we can double-lynch the Inquisitor and a convert if a Seeker uncovers both. The conclusion that we get more mislynches by killing someday today seems right.

With inactives in purple and those who expressed continued misunderstanding of the rules despite posts indicating the correct mechanics in orange, we have:

1. Furamirionind, as A Character
2. Cicada, as Ada
3. Xinoehp512, as Demmanu
4. DrakeMarshmallow, as Tersin Forrelken
5. Stick
6. CadCom, as Tom
7. Rathmaskal, as Rath the Rapper
8. Shanerockes
9. Butt Ad Venture, as Cornelius Steel
10. Devotary of Spontaneity, as Moud
11. Amanuensis, as Octun Renaud
12. Sart, as Sari
13. Snipexe

None of the highlighted people should be removed from consideration; inactivity is unrelated to alignment and I remember Stick in particular having no shame in feigning confusion, but I don't think I'll vote for any of them today.

Fascinatingly enough, all but one of the other uncoloured players opposed a D1 lynch. Sart in general though has supported D1 lynches in recent conversion games. Aman has opposed the chance for a D1 lynch on a converter to essentially end the game. In this game, even with a successful D1 lynch, we'll end up having one elim with two lives against ten villagers by the time the Inquisitor dies, which is not an assured victory. Waiting until a conversion happens gives worst case an elim with three lives versus eight villagers even with a successful D3-4-5 lynch. Rath had somewhat shifted opinions from more opposed in LG51 to more supportive in LG54. Shanerockes has some precedent of not wanting to lynch people early. I can't find any of Drake's recent views on the subject, but I might not be looking hard enough. Cicada obviously has no history. 

Since there are now two votes on Rath, I will put a vote on Drake out of the shortlist. This may well change if I have time to reevaluate.

[DrakeMarshall]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fascinatingly enough, all but one of the other uncoloured players opposed a D1 lynch.

I can't find any of Drake's recent views on the subject, but I might not be looking hard enough.

Since there are now two votes on Rath, I will put a vote on Drake out of the shortlist. This may well change if I have time to reevaluate.

1. It is debatable whether you should count me as "opposed to a D1 lynch", considering my vote is currently the only one that actually meets the voting minimum required to lynch another player. Anyway, you found a rather interesting correlation. Why do you think that is?
   • My take is that there are two rather different groups of people who haven't expressed confusion at the rules:
     • On one hand, you have those who read the rules carefully, and so do not misunderstand them. These are people who are deliberative, so it makes sense that they would be opposed to a D1 lynch, as per your observation.
     • On the other, you have those who just aren't primarily interested in the particulars of the rules. I suspect myself and Sart both fall into this category, which makes it less clear that there is a correlation within this subgroup.
2. I'm no more eager than you are to dredge up the exact posts, but I will say this: I've said my piece about D1 lynches in pretty much every game I was in where it came up. Notably in LG56 (which you participated in), where I advocated an extremely similar approach to the one I am taking right now (in the case of LG56, my plan failed rather spectacularly, but that is besides the point  I believe the theory was sound, though the implementation was clearly not).
3. Is there a particular reason for this? Reading between the lines, this seems to be on the grounds that I am opposed to a D1 lynch, which is 1) not exactly true and 2) in context, pretty consistent with my thoughts in previous games as a villager.

[Snipexe]

On 9/2/2019 at 3:02 PM, DrakeMarshmallow said:

@Snipexe (Snipexe) hi. How’s life? I see you viewing the thread right now so I figure this is a worthwhile poke. Do you have any take on how the conversion aspect of the game works

Sorry, for the delay, I kept get sidetracked in the middle of writing this post.

I think the main thing is that we need to capitalize as much as possible on analysis the first day and night, because if we can nail the inquisitor down then, it obviously simplifies things. 

I would assume as well, that the conversion will happen D2 (Assuming a misting is hit tonight). A one person elim team is, while convenient for staying under the radar, better the bigger the game, (bigger the game=more targets for scans and analysis) and because we have relatively few players, it’s more likely they could influence the lynch.

[Stick.]

21 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

@_Stick_ (1) - Ad Venture (Tagged just so you could get an actual tag )

Thank you! 

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Stick - Neutral
idk why,  when skimming the thread, I keep coming back to reread Stick's post. it feels a little strange to me, but not enough to even be a gut read. Just... idk. I'd like to hear some more from Stick... Hopefully homework isn't too bad this early in the year?

Heh, it's pretty bad. Turns out the holiday homework was actually meant to be done :0 And because I have plenty of that stacked up, I'm in a pretty uncool position cuz now I have less than 2 days to do stuff that was meant to be done over 2 months! xD Regardless, that probably won't interfere much with my activity levels here as I said earlier. My timezone, on the other hand, will very much interfere. Thus this very late reply. xD 

17 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I see stick is currently viewing the thread, so I'll see if anything changes. 

I suspect that was probably because the window was left open on my laptop - I'm quite certain I wasn't physically viewing the thread that early in the morning yesterday xD

17 hours ago, Lumgol said:

If the Inquisitor is scanned, the spikes they possess will not be revealed as metals. So, if the Inquisitor spikes themselves with, say, Iron, a seeker scan will reveal them as using Iron but no other metals

Aw:P Well, it was worth a shot.

17 hours ago, Lumgol said:

 

22 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Oh, I actually had one more question.

Does this mean if the first convert is killed, at that point they may make a second convert?

Yes.

Interesting. That's gonna be a little annoying though... After the conversion, it's gonna be almost impossible to tell apart the inquisitor from the convert just by analysing posts. Hm. Similarly, the lone elim at the moment is gonna blend in quite nicely I think. Now I remember why I'm not the greatest fan of games that start off like this xD

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

9. Butt Ad Venture - Voted for Stick for reasons I don't fully understand and then retracted. Did some neat RP.

I believe it was a poke vote

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I remember Stick in particular having no shame in feigning confusion

Hey! I am offend!  You're not wrong, though. But I've come to discover that that elim tactic is sometimes disadvantageous to confused!village!Stick xD Also, I don't think the inquisitor's spikes not showing up on scans was explicitly mentioned in the rules though? Was it?

I feel like doing one of those read lists, so here's one. The words in bold are my current verdict on each player.

1. Furamirionind, as A Character - Almost everything Fura has said has been NAI, I've noticed

2. Cicada, as Ada - She seems pretty okay

3. Xinoehp512, as Demmanu - No posts yet, if I'm remembering correctly. 

4. DrakeMarshmallow, as Tersin Forrelken - Is pretending to have a lynch - I'm not sure if he intends to take his vote off before the EOD, or if he's going to stick with it now that Fura's math has convinced him of lynching someone today. I don't know what to say about his vote on Rath - Rath's posted twice, iirc, and there wasnt anything particularly inquisitor-y in them. But I guess that's D1 for us, eh? As for the other (Sart's) vote on Rath, it seems to be a poke vote from the wording, but Sart hasnt indicated any intention of taking it off since.

5. Stick - 100% village

6. CadCom, as Tom - I've got a village read on Cadcom mostly because of this  post.

I know that's only half the list, I'll do the other half some other time xD I think I should probably use the little time I've left to vote. I lied when I said my school work wont interfere. 

Snipexe, because I know that their relatively minimal activity is common enough to not be dismissed as a "probably-village", and they've played that way in the past as an elim as well. And that's why it's practically impossible to sometimes tell if they're an elim. I know it's a 1/12 chance it's them, but I'm willing to take it 

37 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Sorry, for the delay, I kept get sidetracked in the middle of writing this post.

I think the main thing is that we need to capitalize as much as possible on analysis the first day and night, because if we can nail the inquisitor down then, it obviously simplifies things. 

I would assume as well, that the conversion will happen D2 (Assuming a misting is hit tonight). A one person elim team is, while convenient for staying under the radar, better the bigger the game, (bigger the game=more targets for scans and analysis) and because we have relatively few players, it’s more likely they could influence the lynch.

Could you please elaborate on that last sentence? I'm not sure I understand the second half of it 

[CadCom]

So, let's start things off with a vote count. 

Rath (2) - Sart, Drake
Drake (1) - Devotary
Stick (1) - Fura
Snipexe (1) - Stick

While Sart's vote on Rath appears to have been a poke vote that simply hasn't been removed. Overall, it appears as if people are against voting this game, but based off the numbers that Fura presented, it may actually be in the village interest to vote today. Instead of completely trusting Fura's numbers though, I'll run my own Worst Case Scenario Situation. In this, I think it will be safe to assume that among the Lurcher and the Thug, the Village team will have at least 1 extra life, and the Elim team will have the two extra lives that the inquisitor has, as well as a single extra life from the iron spike. (I know that this is not the worst case scenario, but It's what I think is most likely.

NO Lynch D1: Results based off end of Turn
D1 12-1
N1 11-1 (-kill)
D2 10-1 (-mislynch)
N2 8-2 (-kill)(-convert)(Both Elims likely have an Extra life, though not guaranteed)
D3 7-2 (-mislynch)
N3 6-2 (-kill)
D4 5-2 (-mislynch)
N4 4-2 (-kill) It's likely that if we reach this point, we've lost, but the elements of vote manipulation and spread of Extra lives may keep the game going past this point. I'm going to assume if it's not over by this point, it would be over by after a D5 mislynch.

With Lynch D1: Results based off end of Turn
D1 11-1 (-mislynch)
N1 10-1 (-kill)
D2 9-1 (-mislynch)
N2 7-2 (-kill)(-convert)
D3 6-2 (-mislynch)
N3 5-2 (-kill)
D4 4-2 (-mislynch) it is at 4-2 that I believe that the game is lost, especially having this followed by a Night cycle where the Elim team can kill someone else. They will either have the voting power, or the lives necessary or both to last out the rest of the game. For sake of discussion...
N4 3-2 (-kill)

My conclusion is that either way, we are given about 3 mislynches in a worst case scenario. So I would almost have to agree with Fura that it might be better to just start the lynching now, so the village can get more information sooner. In any situation where someone survives the lynch anyone with any type of scan role ought to scan the person to see what they are hiding. 

Additionally, I noticed that there are 10 allomantic Roles, and 12 Village players. I can only hope that everyone is given a role, and that there are double of some roles, in case we lose an important role early on. 

I've done some analysis on different possible scenarios that could occur throughout the game, but I'll wait to see if any of them play out before I offer my thoughts on those. This means that I do have to come up with someone I feel comfortable voting on. I would prefer to choose someone already on the list instead of finding someone else. I'm not ready to make that decision yet so please expect a follow up from me relatively soon.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

8 hours ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

1. It is debatable whether you should count me as "opposed to a D1 lynch", considering my vote is currently the only one that actually meets the voting minimum required to lynch another player. Anyway, you found a rather interesting correlation. Why do you think that is?
   • My take is that there are two rather different groups of people who haven't expressed confusion at the rules:
     • On one hand, you have those who read the rules carefully, and so do not misunderstand them. These are people who are deliberative, so it makes sense that they would be opposed to a D1 lynch, as per your observation.
     • On the other, you have those who just aren't primarily interested in the particulars of the rules. I suspect myself and Sart both fall into this category, which makes it less clear that there is a correlation within this subgroup.
2. I'm no more eager than you are to dredge up the exact posts, but I will say this: I've said my piece about D1 lynches in pretty much every game I was in where it came up. Notably in LG56 (which you participated in), where I advocated an extremely similar approach to the one I am taking right now (in the case of LG56, my plan failed rather spectacularly, but that is besides the point  I believe the theory was sound, though the implementation was clearly not).
3. Is there a particular reason for this? Reading between the lines, this seems to be on the grounds that I am opposed to a D1 lynch, which is 1) not exactly true and 2) in context, pretty consistent with my thoughts in previous games as a villager.

Why would people who read the rules carefully be more likely to oppose a D1 lynch?

I do remember your early voting strategy from LG56, but this is specifically about opinions on whether a D1 lynch is useful with only one elim, and other people had recently expressed views that more closely aligned with current behaviour. A null result was enough to put a temporary vote on you. Rath is another main target, though he was apparently convinced that a lynch today would be helpful. A final vote will be happening fairly soon.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Also, I don't think the inquisitor's spikes not showing up on scans was explicitly mentioned in the rules though? Was it?

It's true that my word probably shouldn't be taken, but I did remember from when this game was in development that Inquisitors aren't inherently outed by scans unless they spike themselves multiple times, and say that Seeker scans are only definitive in the early cycles.

[Rathmaskal]

Oh wow, I hadn't played around with the formatting enough previously to realize that shift + enter does one-line spacing

~~

This is crazy, I say, today, no way, we play anymore
What's the plan, we can, find someone to understand we show them the door
This rhyme, this time, has thoughts that don't subscribe to the life we find
Inconsistent views create shady news and give my thoughts the blues

Edit, and ctl + enter posts...to be continued

OK, here's the edit.  Have to go to a meeting unfortunately.  Don't have enough of a read to get a good vote on, but I'm leaning Drake right now.  Seems to be bouncing back and forth on some thoughts that I'm not sure I get the purpose of.  Rough timing for a meeting :/

Edited September 4, 2019 by Rathmaskal

[CadCom]

Rath (2) - Sart, Drake
Drake (1) - Devotary
Stick (1) - Fura
Snipexe (1) - Stick

This is the Short list which I am considering voting for, just to not put even more people on the chopping block. But first @xinoehp512 I see you relatively active today. Are you still playing?

Anyway, 

RATH is a bit difficult to understand with the raps. It seems as if they are attempting to contribute, including joining on the discussion on who to lynch today, but I don't see a vote from them yet. This is mildly suspicious to me. It's also tempting to vote for them to not cause a close lynch capable of becoming a tie, where more than one person dies. 

DRAKE has had some posts that I read as super village, and others that I read as somewhat elim. There's never much to learn from a D1 lynch other than the alignment of the player, especially when there's only one elim. But If there's a player we can learn more from, he would be a top candidate, (Possibly along with Rath)

_STICK_ only has a vote from Fura at this moment, who seemed to just do the vote in order to get more information. I don't necessarily agree with it, so I probably won't vote for Stick

SNIPEXE only has one post, and it seemed rather rushed. With that being said, The last paragraph of his post seemed a bit confusing to me. Perhaps it's Elim!Snip attempting to sound confused or cause confusion. 

For now, I think I'll vote on Snipexe, But if nothing changes until right before rollover, I will probably switch to Rath, just to make sure we only lose one person, as opposed to two. 

Alternatively, I would be also be fine with a Xino lynch if they don't show up and anyone else also supports the lynch. 

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Heh, it's pretty bad. Turns out the holiday homework was actually meant to be done :0 And because I have plenty of that stacked up, I'm in a pretty uncool position cuz now I have less than 2 days to do stuff that was meant to be done over 2 months! xD Regardless, that probably won't interfere much with my activity levels here as I said earlier. My timezone, on the other hand, will very much interfere. Thus this very late reply. xD 

Ah, that sucks. Good luck with that!

---

Ok, after Stick and Devotary posting again, I am reading Devotary as village due to tone... mostly gut... And Stick seems to be in her village meta.

---

Out of my original list, that leaves:
Xino
Snip

but right now I don't think Xino is evil either... I absolutely hate that this is a strategy, and wouldn't be opposed to lynching him because of it, but he puts in effort when evil. When he is a villager, his activity varies between minimally active to inactive.

I also forgot, it's probably worth mentioning that people's playstyles will likely be "not" their normal elim game, due to it being a conversion.

So... I've narrowed my list down to one person... This makes me really apprehensive. Especially since I cleared some people extremely easily... I'm considering pulling back my village reads of Drake, Rath, and Shane.

Ninja'd by Devotary, Rath, and CadCom.

11 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

_STICK_ only has a vote from Fura at this moment, who seemed to just do the vote in order to get more information. I don't necessarily agree with it, so I probably won't vote for Stick

Good, as I'm going to switch my vote. : P

For the purpose of Wagonomics, I'm going to vote on Drake. I'm at work, but I should be available the whole time.
Does anyone know what happens on a tied vote?

Stick
Drake

[CadCom]

7 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Does anyone know what happens on a tied vote?

All parties with the most votes die, because, and I am quoting our GM here, 

Quote

more death is always more fun.

Edit. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a massive lynch of half the team. It would give us like a 50% chance of hitting the inquisitor. It would also give us a 50% chance of hitting the thug, which would only cause confusion, unless we hit both, which would be 25% chance i believe? 

So actually I might be opposed to it. It would still be fun to see 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[+Ed Venture]

42 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Edit. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a massive lynch of half the team. It would give us like a 50% chance of hitting the inquisitor. It would also give us a 50% chance of hitting the thug, which would only cause confusion, unless we hit both, which would be 25% chance i believe? 

That sounds like fun.  Of course that plan is instantly screwed by any Rioters...but it's still fun.

 

So...D1 Thoughts, Theories, and Opinions! (Please take everything I say from now on with a grain of Taladain sand)

Cicada: Minor village gut feeling. Has done a bit of RP, I think? But no real analysis.

Xinoehp512: Hasn't posted, therefore I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Village.

Amanuensis: Again, he hasn't posted so I'm going to assume he's a villager.

Rathmaskal: I like his raps. Raps are village in my book. Neutral read.

Shanerockes: Currently a neutral read. Uses grammarly though...so I'm going to have to call him our Inquisitor 

Snip: I don't know. But I am slight Elim read towards him. Something about his posts are putting me off.

Sart: Slight Elim Read. I don't like the aggressive pase he's setting so early game.

 

So with the easier reads out of the way...here come the obviously wrong reads of the century!

Stick: I'm thinking i'm going to go villager with Stick. Stick has asked some good questions and has generally been helpful.

Butt Ad Venture: Strong village read. Lots of reliable analysis and majestic RP.

 

And the reads I am scared to make. wait...you had the idea of looking for white text? Oh...smart you.

DrakeMarshmallow: So Drake's a Villager. He's Drake, his motives are inscrutable. That's that.

Furaironmind: So Fura....I generally think that Fura's a villager.

CadCom: If anyone of these four are eliminator its him. I don't know why. I'm just calling it now.

Devotary of Spontaneity: Strong Villager read. What with the math and stuff. Yep. And that's that.

So those are my reads! Yay! Please don't kill me!

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Edit. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a massive lynch of half the team. It would give us like a 50% chance of hitting the inquisitor. It would also give us a 50% chance of hitting the thug, which would only cause confusion, unless we hit both, which would be 25% chance i believe? 

So actually I might be opposed to it. It would still be fun to see 

Edited

Um, lol? I tried to do math on how that game would turn out, but there are too many variable. idk how that would work xD

10 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

That sounds like fun.  Of course that plan is instantly screwed by any Rioters...but it's still fun

Well, all roles right now are village... We could try a mass claim... : P

10 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Amanuensis: Again, he hasn't posted so I'm going to assume he's a villager.

He actually has posted, but it wasn't very substantial. Basically saying he wasn't going to vote D1.

10 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Rathmaskal: I like his raps. Raps are village in my book. Neutral read.

hahahahaha. I love how you say raps are village, then give him Neutral. : P

10 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

And the reads I am scared to make. 

DrakeMarshmallow: 

Furaironmind:

CadCom:

Devotary of Spontaneity:

So those are my reads! Yay! Please don't kill me!

Hahaha again.
Anyways, I'm not certain if I can agree with you here about CadCom at least.
I'm only suspicious of him from his going after Xino. Speaking of which:

@Cadmium Compounder Why do you think lynching Xino to be okay this game? I'm normally not shy about lynching inactives, but with so few mislynches, I'm concerned that lynching him is just about the worst possible thing we can do. Especially as, given his history, he is likely village.

Edited September 4, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Edit. I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to a massive lynch of half the team. It would give us like a 50% chance of hitting the inquisitor. It would also give us a 50% chance of hitting the thug, which would only cause confusion, unless we hit both, which would be 25% chance i believe? 

It also kills a lot of villagers, which detracts from the 10 villagers:2 elim lives ratio we would have with a D1-2-3 lynch of the Inquisitor. Killing five villagers and the Inquisitor today would end up with LyLo by D5, I think. 

Since vote manipulation is somewhat difficult to track and we know that there is no elim vote manipulation at this time, it may be worth seeing how many of them we have.

With the vote previously 3:2 against Drake, I'm going to switch over to Rath for previous reasons and for potentially evil self-preservation. This puts 3 votes on Rath and 2 for Drake. This will probably be my last post of the cycle.

[Rathmaskal]

For some reason I had initially read the rollover time as EDT, not PDT.  Cool, another hour.  I'll try to catch back up.

[Sart]

Er… you do know my vote was just a poke on Rathmaskal. I'm a bit concerned by that he's suddenly up for the lynch. While the idea to force a lynch is tempting, building it off of a poke vote seems counterintuitive. It just feels like Drake is off.