Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

[Araris Valerian]

Because of how much most SE players value PMs (regardless of whether they personally use them), it seems reasonable that Joe would make Wilson corrupt, if he didn't do it randomly. I personally think that PMs can be detrimental to a game. The reason to wait a bit is because we only have one more Constable lynch. It would be nice to get everyone to say which constable they prefer to lynch and have some discussion around that before we potentially make things much harder.

Also, I see that @little wilson is watching. Just want to let you know that my pursuit of your death is nothing personal .

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Because of how much most SE players value PMs (regardless of whether they personally use them), it seems reasonable that Joe would make Wilson corrupt, if he didn't do it randomly. I personally think that PMs can be detrimental to a game. The reason to wait a bit is because we only have one more Constable lynch. It would be nice to get everyone to say which constable they prefer to lynch and have some discussion around that before we potentially make things much harder.

Also, I see that @little wilson is watching. Just want to let you know that my pursuit of your death is nothing personal .

Hmm. While that is fair, @Alvron was arguing that lynching Gaea would turn off all items this game? or something like that. If we get rid of all items, now we can't kill, can scan, cant... do any of the other things items can do this game??

(Full disclosure, still haven't had time to read the rules. Hopefully I'll get to that over lunch, but my player analysis is higher priority I think)

[Araris Valerian]

Quote

If the Lieutenant (xxGaea) is lynched, all Items the Constables are randomly distributed among the voters. From then on, items are not buyable, and once confiscated, removed from the game.

Here's the relevant section. I think items only get confiscated if a player dies with no votes on them. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm this?

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Here's the relevant section. I think items only get confiscated if a player dies with no votes on them. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm this?

All items get confiscated when a player is lynched. Items will also be confiscated if there are no votes on a player when they are stabbed.

[Araris Valerian]

I stand corrected then. Regardless, there will still be plenty of items flying around to make things crazy if xxGaea is lynched.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

I stand corrected then. Regardless, there will still be plenty of items flying around to make things crazy if xxGaea is lynched.

Agreed. And while they then become a single use item, as far as the players are concerned, the items will always be a single use item. Therefore, they will likely be used the same amount.

---

If I am not mistaken, this was the vote count EoD1:
Joe (6): Striker, Bard, Lumgol, Elandera, Rae, Kidpen
Gaea (4): Fifth, Drake, Devotary, Fura
Wilson (2): Araris, Ark
Burnt (1): Snipexe
Fura (1): Elbereth
Rath (1): Hael

Vote count SoD2: (italicised names are ones that stayed consistent. Bolded names changed between the two counts)
Joe(6): Striker, Bard, Lumgol, Elandera, Rae, Kidpen, Alvron
Gaea(4): Fifth, Drake, Devotary, Fura, Kidpen
Wilson(3): Araris, Ark, Fifth
Burnt Spaghetti(1): Snipexe
Furamirionind(1): Elbereth
Rathmaskal(1): Haelbarde

This is rather interesting, as Someone added Alv to Joe, Someone added Kidpen to Gaea, and someone added Fifth to Wilson. My guess was:
Alv was added as someone felt like the Joe lynch wasn't secure enough.
Kidpen was added to Gaea by someone trying to lynch Gaea
Fifth was added to Wilson by... idk. An elim? It makes no sense to me.

[Snipexe]

Alright, so gm 

edit: sorry I don’t know what happened, but you can see my actual post below.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Snipexe

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Agreed. And while they then become a single use item, as far as the players are concerned, the items will always be a single use item. Therefore, they will likely be used the same amount.

---

If I am not mistaken, this was the vote count EoD1:
Joe (6): Striker, Bard, Lumgol, Elandera, Rae, Kidpen
Gaea (4): Fifth, Drake, Devotary, Fura
Wilson (2): Araris, Ark
Burnt (1): Snipexe
Fura (1): Elbereth
Rath (1): Hael

Vote count SoD2: (italicised names are ones that stayed consistent. Bolded names changed between the two counts)
Joe(6): Striker, Bard, Lumgol, Elandera, Rae, Kidpen, Alvron
Gaea(4): Fifth, Drake, Devotary, Fura, Kidpen
Wilson(3): Araris, Ark, Fifth
Burnt Spaghetti(1): Snipexe
Furamirionind(1): Elbereth
Rathmaskal(1): Haelbarde

This is rather interesting, as Someone added Alv to Joe, Someone added Kidpen to Gaea, and someone added Fifth to Wilson. My guess was:
Alv was added as someone felt like the Joe lynch wasn't secure enough.
Kidpen was added to Gaea by someone trying to lynch Gaea
Fifth was added to Wilson by... idk. An elim? It makes no sense to me.

Okay, time for actual analysis.

First off, last cycle Alv voted for Joe by himself in this post here, that wasn't vote manipulation.

In that case, the vote manipulations were from Joe to Gaea (Kidpen's vote), and from Gaea to Wilson (Fifth's vote). Chances are that they weren't both done by the elim team, because they effectively made the number of votes on Gaea the same as before, and kept the lynch on Joe. We know that Joe is village, and the elims benefit from a mislynch, so the manipulation off of Joe was probably by a villager. That leaves the manipulation off Gaea. Gaea is the only reliable way for elims to get daggers, and thus kills, so it's possible that the elims might have saved her even if she was village to keep the black market open. Assuming Gaea is village, the manipulation could have been done by both a villager or an elim, so the bribery is NAI. Assuming Gaea is elim, the elims have a lot more reason to keep her alive, so the bribery was probably done by an elim.

I'm honestly tempted to kill off Gaea now, regardless of alignment. Yes, she has nice items for villagers too, but the village can still work without alignment scans and item seizures. Protects aren't needed if there's no kills, either. Comparatively, an elim team with no kills is crippled. The elim team gets hurt a lot more than we do if Gaea's dead.

[Snipexe]

Alright, so gm 

edit: yay, so that posted without me doing anything.

Anyway, so the gm has confirmed the dagger is titled “JoinTheAlleyverse”, so that makes it clear to me that Ark was responsible for Burnt’s death.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Snipexe

[Furamirionind]

10 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Alright, so gm 

edit: yay, so that posted without me doing anything.

Anyway, so the gm has confirmed the dagger is titled “JoinTheAlleyverse”, so that makes it clear to me that Ark was responsible for Burnt’s death.

You convinced it's Ark?

3 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Sorry for the delay in response.

I didn’t kill Burnt. I did obviously get her dagger, and the dagger I got was called “JointheAlleyVerse” This is either a set up for Ark, seeing as that’s not how he spells Alleyverse and he said that’s what he would call a dagger before the game or Ark  was trying to set me up for the lynch. @RayOfSunshine, care to explain?

Edited August 5, 2019 by Furamirionind
was an extra "enter" in my post, and it annoyed me

[Snipexe]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

You convinced it's Ark?

At this point, yes. Though I am still willing to accept an attempt at framing someone, the likelihood of the double frame (Me and then Ark) seems less so.

[StrikerEZ]

As likely as it is that Ark is an elim at this point, I’d rather lynch Gaea first. We have a 50% chance of getting the corrupt Constable, and like Fura said (pretty sure it was Fura, at least), the loss of the black market hurts the elims a lot more than it does the village. Worst case scenario, Gaea turns out to be good, but at least the elims lose their easiest method of getting daggers and the villagers keep their best method of planning things: the PMs. 

[+Ed Venture]

Gaius looked at the squabbling children... *Ahem* Senators. Fools, all of us. Leaving the conference room he strolled down the halls to his office. Pulling out a notepad from his desk drawer he scribbled down his thoughts. 

One: Senator Palpatune is willing to ruin another trusted Senator's reputation just for the name of a knife.

Two: A trusted member of the constabulary had been locked up. Because untrustworthy men had been pushing around their money.

Three: I'm not Governor. I really wanted to be Governor... 

If I die the windows will never be installed!

---

@Snipexe, I think the name of a dagger is no proof of someones guilt. It could easily be anyone's. And...well, I won't vote on you because I trust you, you voted for me to become Governor. But...what if you are doing the framing. We have no proof of the dagger's name. You could easily be trying to get us to mislynch another villager.

I'm not comfortable with such a easy way for vote manipulation. @A Joe in the Bush, Is it possible for someone to bribe themselves so they could send in a secret vote? If so that could explain some of the voting shenanigans.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Butt Ad Venture

[Araris Valerian]

14 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

As likely as it is that Ark is an elim at this point, I’d rather lynch Gaea first.

I may be wrong, but I don't think Ark's alignment is well established. You are assuming (it seems to me at least) that Burnt is village, and that elim!Ark would name a Dagger something that would make him an obvious culprit when he used it. Who's to say that I didn't name a Dagger that and stab Burnt to frame Ark? Or perhaps Ark did stab Burnt, but was honestly suspicious. I'll add my vote to Striker.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

4 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Two points of order:

- we have no idea if Burnt was village. Now from my PMs with her I reckon she was probably village her but she knows how to manipulate and read me so that doesn't mean a whole lot. 

- Snipexe can't have been the one to use the dagger. You can't keep items you use successfully. If he had used it, the dagger would have gone to the constables instead, and we'd be able to see it in the blackmarket, where we see there are none (someone got the dagger from the shop then it seems).

Sorry, the bit about Burnt’s innocence was a misunderstanding of the rules. I recalled that alignments were revealed differently if they were killed by a dagger, but I forgot that they weren’t revealed at all. I just assumed that because the writeup didn’t say “Corrupt Senator” that Burnt was Village.

[StrikerEZ]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I may be wrong, but I don't think Ark's alignment is well established. You are assuming (it seems to me at least) that Burnt is village, and that elim!Ark would name a Dagger something that would make him an obvious culprit when he used it. Who's to say that I didn't name a Dagger that and stab Burnt to frame Ark? Or perhaps Ark did stab Burnt, but was honestly suspicious. I'll add my vote to Striker.

I’m mostly trusting of Snip right now because of the way he phrased his last post. I don’t think an elim would bring up the possibility of a double claim, though that could lead into IKYK territory. I will admit that Ark’s alignment isn’t as certain as my last post seemed to imply, and I’m sorry I wasn’t clear about that. I’m starting to think that both Ark and Snip are village, actually. Elim!Snip pulling off a mislynch like this would almost certainly result in getting himself lynched. And it would be very easy for village!Snip to make the easiest conclusion after receiving his dagger that it actually is Ark’s. 

[Furamirionind]

First of all, I'm going to look at those that voted on Joe. I am confident there is at least 1 elim among them. (This list is in order of the votes on Joe)

Striker - Strong Elim Read
First vote on Joe, and seems to have village reasons. I say that because I was typing up a post saying almost the exact same thing before I deleted that post and made a 180 to target Gaea.

This post is a bit strange. How was Joe the obvious choice?  To me, it seemed pretty clear it was a trap. You can argue that I had a 66% chance of being correct, and yeah, I did. But mechanically, it doesn't make sense for Joe to have been corrupt...
Then nominates Drake as Governor. I don't think that was a bad choice, but... why? Drake wasn't the only one to nominate himself. I also think the elims are going to have more to gain from trying to get people to elect governors. When that person is village, then that sucks, but statistically, they are still more likely to get other villagers. In the hands of an elim, it is very powerful

Are you completely disregarding the possibility of Wilson being corrupt?

Oh Striker, I didn't realize you were such a PM activist! : P
I don't recall you using PMs all that much in previous games though. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong though.

I already got after you for this post, but one more thing: Complete reversal of what you say 2 posts ago where we would simply lynch Gaea.

 

Bard - Slight Elim Read

Would you vote for Gaea or Wilson now? I honestly don't see why you voted, and then changed your vote mid post. I mean, I do... But it makes it confusing.

I don't like this post much. reads to me like hedging. That's all I got lol.

My time is up. Spent too much time on Striker. The people I'll do once I get home are: Lumgol, Elandera, Rae, Kidpen, and Alv.

I will also be voting on Striker this turn. We should NOT be voting on a gm this turn.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Snipexe said:

At this point, yes. Though I am still willing to accept an attempt at framing someone, the likelihood of the double frame (Me and then Ark) seems less so.

Ark isn't the only other person who is part of the Alleyverse. Kidpen is one of the people nominally in charge, and a quick post scan shows that Drake and Venture, and perhaps others, have posted in the Alleyverse section. However, if Burnt's killer is a villager, I don't see any good reason for them not to claim other than the fear of summary execution and I would be more likely to believe the killer is a villager if they took responsibility for their actions.

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Ark isn't the only other person who is part of the Alleyverse. Kidpen is one of the people nominally in charge, and a quick post scan shows that Drake and Venture, and perhaps others, have posted in the Alleyverse section. However, if Burnt's killer is a villager, I don't see any good reason for them not to claim other than the fear of summary execution and I would be more likely to believe the killer is a villager if they took responsibility for their actions.

I second what Devotary said. She is very smart.

Also, my previous post was ninjad about 5 times apparently. Strikers most recent posts are also suspicious, but I need to get back to work now as lunch is over.

[Snipexe]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

 

14 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

 

 

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

 

Yeah so I’m basing the reason that it’s Ark on this post:

Quote

naming a dagger would be the best thing to ever happen to me 

I'm just imagining the look on someones face when they get ahold of the item "JoinTheAlleyverse" or "WouldYouLikeACookie". Then they stab someone with propaganda 

So I’m actually not trying to frame a random person, I have a legitimate reason to think it was Ark. I would have linked to this sooner had I realized that you guys didn’t know what I was talking about.

[Fifth Scholar]

7 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

 

 

Yeah so I’m basing the reason that it’s Ark on this post:

So I’m actually not trying to frame a random person, I have a legitimate reason to think it was Ark. I would have linked to this sooner had I realized that you guys didn’t know what I was talking about.

I get that, I guess? But with that comment being public, it’s a simple matter for anyone to read it, decide they want to frame Ark with the dagger they have, name it and stab somebody with it. 

Striker’s support for a Gaea lynch is disconcerting, as I’m currently getting evil vibes off both, but ultimately recognisation that my reads on one or both are wrong is 1) less conceited and 2) less likely to lead me down a tunnel. I’ll stick with my vote on Striker, though. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

50 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

 

I'm not comfortable with such a easy way for vote manipulation. @A Joe in the Bush, Is it possible for someone to bribe themselves so they could send in a secret vote? If so that could explain some of the voting shenanigans.

Yes. Flavorwise, i have no idea how that works, but mechanically yes.

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Yes. Flavorwise, i have no idea how that works, but mechanically yes.

Multiple personalities?

[Furamirionind]

59 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

I'm not comfortable with such a easy way for vote manipulation. @A Joe in the Bush, Is it possible for someone to bribe themselves so they could send in a secret vote? If so that could explain some of the voting shenanigans.

8 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Yes. Flavorwise, i have no idea how that works, but mechanically yes.

Um, wow. Ok. Might have been a better question to ask in your GM PM so that it's not public info but... ok then...

That was an excellent question. I don't actually think that's what we saw this past cycle, but in future cycles, we likely will now. : )

 

[Arrae]

I think the kill on Burnt and the dagger name is an elim IKYK. It's a C1 kill, and elims generally kill in SE. If we had someone playing vigilante with a daggers, I'd have expected to see two kills. And for the name of the dagger, it's likely an IKYK. I'd take that as an invitation to analyze the alleyverse players, but it's not alignment indicative my itself.