Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

[xxGaea]

Hello my darlings~
This turn has now come to an end, and posts following this one will be ignored.
Joe does not currently have access to the internet, and asked me to update everyone.
The next turn will not be posted for another 24 hours or so. Joe apologizes for the delay, but it cannot be helped.
Night lovelies~

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn 7: A Long Time in the Senate
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Hello Everyone! I'm back! Sorry for the unexpected, Unexplained Absence. This Cycle is going to last for 26 and a half hours, to get us back on schedule. Thank you for your patience and enjoy the game.

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Senator Alendi (Bugsy) was Lynched! He was Heroic!

Lynch Vote Tally
Fifth(1): Rae
Elandera(1): Striker
Bugsy(4): Elandera, Furamirionind, Drake, Devotary

Governor Vote Tally
DrakeMarshmallow (3): Striker, Headshot, Drake
Elandera (2): Arraenae, Elandera

Constable Altea currently has 5 Boxings, the Ledger known as The Great and Mighty Finder of Evildoers, and the Ledger known as The Coolest Ledger that Ever Ledged,

Boxing Prices:
1: Talk to an arrested player without your name being posted.
2: Open a PM with a player for the rest of the game.
1: Change someone’s Lynch vote.
1: Change someone’s Election vote.
4: Buy a random item from the Constables. 
2: Bribe a player to target someone with their item.
4: Buy a specific item from the Constables. 
40: Bribe the Constables to execute all other players. You win. Your team does not.
Note: The Execution Win con will never drop below 40 Boxings.

Player List:

 

Alive:
Araris Valerian
Arraenae
Butt Ad Venture
Devotary of Spontaneity
DrakeMarshmallow
Elandera
Fifth Scholar
Furamirionind
Haelbarde
Hemalurgic Headshot
Rathmaskal
Shqueeves
Snipexe
StrikerEZ
Young Bard

Arrested:
A Joe in the Bush - Just Constable
Lumgol - Kleptomaniac
RayOfSunshine - Jolly
Wilson - Righteous Constable
Alvron - Impenitent
Kidpen - Childish
Bugsy - Heroic

Constables:
xxGaea - Alive, Unstoppable, and EVIL

Dead:
Seonid - Betrayed Governor
Burnt Spaghetti - Surprised
Elbereth - Quick-Witted

Edited August 13, 2019 by A Joe in the Bush

[Elandera]

Why does everyone try to rob me? I got another warrant, after having used my warrants (yes, plural; two people tried to rob me last time). I hope you enjoy your nothingness.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, could you explain your reasoning for adding a fourth vote?

I'm disappointed in Bugsy's flip, and now at a complete loss for further suspicions. Does someone have a ledger scan they'd like to share? I could really use some cleared/not cleared results for direction.

[Furamirionind]

11 hours ago, Elandera said:

Why does everyone try to rob me? I got another warrant, after having used my warrants (yes, plural; two people tried to rob me last time). I hope you enjoy your nothingness.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, could you explain your reasoning for adding a fourth vote?

I'm disappointed in Bugsy's flip, and now at a complete loss for further suspicions. Does someone have a ledger scan they'd like to share? I could really use some cleared/not cleared results for direction.

Lol

If there were only 3 votes, 2 people could have been killed. Either you or Fifth in addition to Bugsy.

My guess is the elims have the ledger I used. The second ledger seems to be missing as well, and therefore, I think likely among the elims as well.

Edit:

What do you guys think of doing tied lynches? What if we intentionally did tied lynches from now forward. In theory, that will give us a greater chance at finding the elims, at the expense of shortening the game.

Edited August 12, 2019 by Furamirionind

[StrikerEZ]

23 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

What do you guys think of doing tied lynches? What if we intentionally did tied lynches from now forward. In theory, that will give us a greater chance at finding the elims, at the expense of shortening the game.

Honestly, I wouldn’t really mind. I really need to be focusing on other things soon anyway, so I wouldn’t be too upset if this game ended early. 

[Elandera]

50 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If there were only 3 votes, 2 people could have been killed. Either you or Fifth in addition to Bugsy.

That is true, but only one of the four of us had even placed a vote before the last 15-20 minutes of the game (Drake, whose vote was on Devotary). My initial thoughts were it would be highly improbable for one of our votes to have been bribed for no reason earlier, and since there were only the four of us online at the time (form what I remember on the currently viewing list), it would have been dangerous to bribe a vote off Bugsy without being caught.

56 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

What do you guys think of doing tied lynches?

I'm not sure how I feel about this, because I feel it would be more likely to hit a lot of villagers. I wouldn't mind tied lynches if we can get some ledger scans going and find a few corrupt results.

[DrakeMarshall]

Generally I would support a tied lynch. It’s a method of hedging bets in the best possible way.

I have reservations about doing it in this game. There are some things that tip the balance for me:

• Both members of a tie are lynched. The eliminators have no reason to break a tie between two villagers. Essentially, if we get it wrong, the consequences are worse than usual. Higher risk.
• Vote manipulation is ubiquitous in this game. The eliminators really don’t have to expose themselves to protect a teammate. And the greater number of potential sources of vote manipulation makes it harder to learn from the lynch being manipulated. Essentially, if we get it right and one of the tied lynch targets is evil, the payoff isn’t as good as it usually is. Lower reward.
• Also, always having tied lynches gives anyone with boxings a pretty big edge on anyone without, since they can always ensure that the other party is lynched instead of them.

I dunno. Maybe we just want to up the pace of the game (although I don’t necessarily feel that the game is lagging). That could be a reasonable justification for lynching more people. I just don’t think that strategically speaking, it favors the village.

I am realizing that one of the most unfortunate things about doing this on my phone (unreliable computer rn) is that on a computer it’s way way easier to have multiple tabs open going back and forth to do a big analysis post of past interactions. I’ll try to have something put together soon. The amount of info available is reaching a critical mass where I feel like I might be able to really solve a lot of stuff.

Edited August 12, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow

[Arrae]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Lol

If there were only 3 votes, 2 people could have been killed. Either you or Fifth in addition to Bugsy.

My guess is the elims have the ledger I used. The second ledger seems to be missing as well, and therefore, I think likely among the elims as well.

Edit:

What do you guys think of doing tied lynches? What if we intentionally did tied lynches from now forward. In theory, that will give us a greater chance at finding the elims, at the expense of shortening the game.

If we do it, the voting needs to all be done before the last two hours of the cycle

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

If we do it, the voting needs to all be done before the last two hours of the cycle

YES PLEASE.

[Furamirionind]

Well... I'm on lunch now, but don't have the mental ability to actually do analysis...

Fifth has been checking all the boxes for being a villager, yet I don't believe has actually contributed significantly to the village. I would love to either hear more from Fifth, or see some analysis on him.

Fifth

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 hours ago, Elandera said:

 

@Devotary of Spontaneity, could you explain your reasoning for adding a fourth vote?

Some mixture of preventing a bribe from getting a tied lynch, such a thing would likely have been an attempt to save Rath as he was the only other person who acquired more than one vote, and a selfish desire to acquire boxings. 

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

What do you guys think of doing tied lynches? What if we intentionally did tied lynches from now forward. In theory, that will give us a greater chance at finding the elims, at the expense of shortening the game.

If we did want the game to end more quickly, using those daggers everyone is hoarding would accomplish that goal. The lack of alignment flip makes that strategically less useful; better suited to killing relative inactives who don't have much in the way of connections to other players, but such players tend to be village.

[Furamirionind]

@Devotary of Spontaneity who are you suspicious of?

14 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If we did want the game to end more quickly, using those daggers everyone is hoarding would accomplish that goal. The lack of alignment flip makes that strategically less useful; better suited to killing relative inactives who don't have much in the way of connections to other players, but such players tend to be village.

The daggers are generally worse. They give us no info on alignment vs random chance, they also kill rather than jail, they also risk the daggers getting into circulation and falling into elim hands. In addition to that, they have no discussion or voting/counter voting patterns to analyse.

While I like the concept of daggers this game, I believe the lynch to be a far superior village tool.

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity who are you suspicious of?

The daggers are generally worse. They give us no info on alignment vs random chance, they also kill rather than jail, they also risk the daggers getting into circulation and falling into elim hands. In addition to that, they have no discussion or voting/counter voting patterns to analyse.

While I like the concept of daggers this game, I believe the lynch to be a far superior village tool.

Unless someone has a dagger and ledger, and use both on the target so we actually know the alignment. Of course, that means we'd have to trust that person enough to believe the alignment they reveal.

Edited August 12, 2019 by Elandera
My English is broken today.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity who are you suspicious of?

The daggers are generally worse. They give us no info on alignment vs random chance, they also kill rather than jail, they also risk the daggers getting into circulation and falling into elim hands. In addition to that, they have no discussion or voting/counter voting patterns to analyse.

While I like the concept of daggers this game, I believe the lynch to be a far superior village tool.

As part of a suspicion on Elandera, I looked back at cycle 3 to see what was happening with that lynch, and why Elbereth was killed that cycle. Striker had claimed a ledger by that point, and Alv was around to see Striker's final vote, so he should have been a better target than either Elbereth or Elandera for elim!Alv. Village!Alv telling the truth would have had no reason to attack either Elandera or Striker. Elandera started the vote for Alv, but the only people that could be protecting are Rae and Fura. Given that you knew about it, I'm guessing you signed off on Elandera's attempt to steal from Striker C3. What was that supposed to accomplish? In the end, most of what I have against Elandera is voting for Bard over Kidpen and being in a position to know that bribery wouldn't save him.

Other than that, nothing major. Araris was pretty persistent in going after Wilson, but he's apparently not going to be around much for awhile. We never did find out why Fifth's vote was moved from Gaea to Joe and he did put on the third vote for Bard. 

That's why the daggers are only worth using on people whose alignment flip would tell us nothing because they haven't interacted with anyone. There aren't many players who meet that description, and it is true that killing anybody risks having those daggers go up for sale.

[DrakeMarshall]

@Fifth Scholar, are you around to answer votes on you? I suppose I wouldn’t mind hearing you weigh in.

I would rather not lynch a second inactive now that I have the time to think, unless there is a good reason to.

Reading through the backlog:

 

Cycle 1:

Kidpen and Lumgol both voted for Joe. So did Alvron, and either Alv or El was definitely evil. It seems that the eliminators were pushing hard to keep Gaea alive (and, well, they succeeded).

Those who voted for Joe who are still in the game and not semi-cleared are Bard, Elandera, and Rae.

And then there’s the fact that the eliminators seem to have prevented Bard from being scanned, which makes Bard nominally more suspect of the three.

However, for the sake of diversity, I would also expect some elims not to have voted C1, or more likely, to have voted on Wilson instead of Joe. It’s an easy way to accomplish the same result without seeming to be working together. The only player who fits that bracket is Araris.

Fifth also got bribed C1 by a mystery person, which, given that passing boxings was otherwise impossible at the time, means that it could have been elims trying to consolidate their cash.

 

Cycle 2:

Lum being scanned as evil kind of took over the day. Not much to see here.

Rae’s vote, in addition to being timed in such way it could have been a bus, is a bit more forceful than what I usually see when villagers decide to follow a scan:

Quote

Lum, have anything else besides a few lines of reads?

Although, I appreciate that Rae is consistently trying to nominate players other than herself to office, and has generally been more proactive about the governor elections than most.

The elims probably did bus Lum since we have reason to believe they had the funds for a bribery and didn’t attempt it to save Lum.

Elan could maybe fit a similar description as Rae in terms of reacting to Lum’s scan, except they didn’t actually vote out of concern for skewing the lynch accuracy, which is understandable.

 

Cycle 3:

Craziness ensues, there isn’t much to get out of this except that at least two of the elims were around at the end of the cycle to be able to correctly manipulate the vote. People who were around at the end of the cycle, who are still alive and not semi-cleared: Hael, Devotary, Elandera, Rae, Bard, Alvron, and Elbereth. We already know one of Alv/Elbereth was likely evil so at least one of the remaining list also kind of has to be evil. Kind of a big list, but nominally helpful.

 

Cycle 4: 

A lot of votes on Alv.

My instinct is that for a player that hasn’t literally been scanned elim like Lum had, the elims would have tried to protect them, like they did with Gaea.

If Alv was an elim, which is kind of a big question mark, then that might implicate Fifth as the most likely protector of Alv.

 

Cycle 5:

We kind of just threw together a lynch on Kidpen based on a collective gut read, and turned out to be right.

Soft trust to Araris for calling out the Kidpen lynch for being flimsy. It was flimsy.

The Bard lynch is ever so slightly suspect, which included Kidpen (obviously), Elan, and Fifth.

There were also a fair few votes on Kidpen towards the end, arguably more than we needed although it may just be a bid for more boxings.

 

Cycle 6:

Not a very lively lynch, kind of just decided last second.

 

Cycle 7:

Well, here we are.

This is a huge pain to do on my phone, by the way. Sheesh.

Anyways, you see my thought process. I am going to support lynching Fifth for now.

[Elandera]

12 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Given that you knew about it, I'm guessing you signed off on Elandera's attempt to steal from Striker C3. What was that supposed to accomplish?

That was an attempt that if Striker didn't use/didn't have a ledger, it could be revealed. I was still very suspicious of the cleared claims and wanted to verify. If Striker had not used the ledger and I hadn't received one in my use of the warrant, we'd know they were lying.

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Elandera said:

That was an attempt that if Striker didn't use/didn't have a ledger, it could be revealed. I was still very suspicious of the cleared claims and wanted to verify. If Striker had not used the ledger and I hadn't received one in my use of the warrant, we'd know they were lying.

I was trying to use it as a double test on both you and Striker as well... But I can't remember how I thought of it as a test on you... xD

[Fifth Scholar]

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Well... I'm on lunch now, but don't have the mental ability to actually do analysis...

Fifth has been checking all the boxes for being a villager, yet I don't believe has actually contributed significantly to the village. I would love to either hear more from Fifth, or see some analysis on him.

Fifth

I check every box except “have anything approaching a reasonable amount of time for this game.” If you’re looking for analysis like I normally do, you’ll have to be disappointed; I have more vested in LG58 right now, and the way lynch flips work this game makes me reluctant to start analysis, because I have literally no way of knowing if any of it is right. It’s just destroyed my ability to meaningfully engage, though I’ll try to check in at least once a cycle. 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Fifth also got bribed C1 by a mystery person, which, given that passing boxings was otherwise impossible at the time, means that it could have been elims trying to consolidate their cash.

It wasn’t; as I said at the time, it was because the Elims were paranoid about my vote on Gaea nearly working. I still have those boxings, by the way, and might as well give them away since I can’t use them  

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

If Alv was an elim, which is kind of a big question mark, then that might implicate Fifth as the most likely protector of Alv.

I protected Alv because I felt he’d admitted his crime. If Alv has actually wanted to defuse the lynch, I doubted he’d have been as passive as he was; he basically let himself be led to slaughter. 

EDIT: Two things. One, I’m fine with being lynched, as I’m not terribly active, but it appears the rest of the thread isn’t too much better; as such, if I wake up tomorrow dead, I’d like a list of reasons why. Also, even though I don’t like Fura’s attempts to direct the village, and am getting weird feels from Drake, they’re apparently both village, so Rae as my next suspect. I’m an easy lynch and don’t reveal much, so I’m curious why she’s dragging me into the noose. Other than my early stances on the constables, I’ve contributed little here.  

Also, please note something that I think people are forgetting; anyone bribing on the turn they’re scanned will show corrupt. I don’t think people are remembering that with all the ledgers and lynches flying around. 

Edited August 13, 2019 by Fifth Scholar

[DrakeMarshall]

Hm, fair. Wanted to see how you responded, and for now, I am satisfied. Fifth.

[Arrae]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I check every box except “have anything approaching a reasonable amount of time for this game.” If you’re looking for analysis like I normally do, you’ll have to be disappointed; I have more vested in LG58 right now, and the way lynch flips work this game makes me reluctant to start analysis, because I have literally no way of knowing if any of it is right. It’s just destroyed my ability to meaningfully engage, though I’ll try to check in at least once a cycle. 

It wasn’t; as I said at the time, it was because the Elims were paranoid about my vote on Gaea nearly working. I still have those boxings, by the way, and might as well give them away since I can’t use them  

I protected Alv because I felt he’d admitted his crime. If Alv has actually wanted to defuse the lynch, I doubted he’d have been as passive as he was; he basically let himself be led to slaughter. 

EDIT: Two things. One, I’m fine with being lynched, as I’m not terribly active, but it appears the rest of the thread isn’t too much better; as such, if I wake up tomorrow dead, I’d like a list of reasons why. Also, even though I don’t like Fura’s attempts to direct the village, and am getting weird feels from Drake, they’re apparently both village, so Rae as my next suspect. I’m an easy lynch and don’t reveal much, so I’m curious why she’s dragging me into the noose. Other than my early stances on the constables, I’ve contributed little here.  

Also, please note something that I think people are forgetting; anyone bribing on the turn they’re scanned will show corrupt. I don’t think people are remembering that with all the ledgers and lynches flying around. 

I picked you as a lynch target last cycle because my policy is that if I don't have actual suspects, then I'll start going after those who've been flying under the radar/have been in the golden zone of posting enough not to be inactive, but not enough to show real stances.

[Elandera]

Current vote count:

Fifth (1) - Fura, Drake
Rae (1) - Fifth

We're not doing great with the whole "vote before the last two hours of the cycle" thing. I will try to do a quick analysis and see where I can vote from there. I'm not a big fan of lynching Fifth just because he's been busier than usual. And I've been reading Rae as generally village, though Fifth's analysis is making me think a bit more.

There are also several people who aren't saying much (or anything), so commence the mass tag!

@Araris Valerian(I think he's gone? Vacation or something?) @Butt Ad Venture, @Haelbarde, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Rathmaskal, @Shqueeves, @Snipexe, @Young Bard

Do any of you have thoughts on the game thus far? Have any of you used or have ledgers that can be used to give us a bit more direction?

[Arrae]

 

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Current vote count:

Fifth (1) - Fura, Drake
Rae (1) - Fifth

We're not doing great with the whole "vote before the last two hours of the cycle" thing. I will try to do a quick analysis and see where I can vote from there. I'm not a big fan of lynching Fifth just because he's been busier than usual. And I've been reading Rae as generally village, though Fifth's analysis is making me think a bit more.

There are also several people who aren't saying much (or anything), so commence the mass tag!

@Araris Valerian(I think he's gone? Vacation or something?) @Butt Ad Venture, @Haelbarde, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Rathmaskal, @Shqueeves, @Snipexe, @Young Bard

Do any of you have thoughts on the game thus far? Have any of you used or have ledgers that can be used to give us a bit more direction?

As the person who proposed the "vote before it's almost rollover" thing, I'm doing a terrible job, aren't I...

I think Bugsy got the Coolest Ledger? It showed up in Gaea's black market after he was lynched, and no one died that cycle.

I feel a little better about Fifth after rereading his response, so I won't vote for him.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Elandera said:

That was an attempt that if Striker didn't use/didn't have a ledger, it could be revealed. I was still very suspicious of the cleared claims and wanted to verify. If Striker had not used the ledger and I hadn't received one in my use of the warrant, we'd know they were lying.

If Striker hadn't wanted to use the ledger, he wouldn't have announced that there was one in his possession. Once he claimed to have one, he was obligated to use it.

Once again, we come to the closing hours of the cycle with a flimsy lynch. It also doesn't look like the governor vote is going to go through.

Crossing out the minimal actives/those who haven't shown up for a while leaves a fairly short list. Eliminating Drake, Fura, and I pares it down to a shortlist of six players. 
Arraenae
Elandera
Fifth Scholar
Snipexe
StrikerEZ
Young Bard

We haven't gotten a scan of Bard, but Kidpen going for Bard over Fifth at 3-1-1 helps my opinion of village!Bard. If Bard is village, Striker has to be as well.

Arraenae
Elandera
Fifth Scholar
Snipexe

With Ark presumably being a villager and the fact that if Snip was part of Alv's dagger passing conspiracy it would be foolish to use a dagger known to be Snip's, I'm going to avoid voting on Snip at this time. Taking a stand on principle and willingly accepting a lynch also strikes me as village.

Of the three remaining players, two of them have votes.

Rae solidified lynches on Lum and Kidpen that ensured that one bribe wouldn't be enough to save either of them. An elim!Rae could have done that knowing that no bribery was going to happen, as both Lum especially wouldn't have lasted long had she been saved with vote manipulation. Kidpen might have managed to survive unscathed assuming the elims didn't direct Fura's ledger to him. Rae also almost managed to kill Alv C3, which is a point in her favour if Alv is evil, and more neutral if he's village. Rae obviously has a better opinion of Elandera than I do. I'm not seeing them both be evil though. Also, @Arraenae, the ledger currently in the market is the one Striker used on Lum, and somehow nobody has bought it yet.

Being a consistent voice to lynch Gaea and having been bribed could be either a villager who picked correctly or an elim who didn't particularly care if the corrupt constable died/knew there were plans to protect Gaea. The main thing in Fifth's favour is that he probably would be spending more effort on this game were it his first time starting as an elim. The main evidence against him is the vote for Bard and Kidpen choosing to lynch Bard over Fifth when the latter would probably have been easier to kill

I've explained the main reasons I'm suspicious of Elandera, so that's where I'm going to put my vote for now. Still, I'd like to have a lynch today, so I might switch if it seems nobody will have at least two votes.

Fifth(1): Fura
Rae(1): Fifth
Elandera(1): Devotary

[Young Bard]

Oh... Oops. Yeah, sorry that this is the last hour before rollover.

Let's see between Fifth and Rae - I remember being pretty neutral about Fifth and somewhat village leaning on Rae, but let's see.

So, Rae gave a rundown of every player here:

That list seems fairly NAI, and while I agree with most of it, it doesn't come out as pandering or trying to avoid attention either. Fifth didn't provide much of an explanation for their vote either, besides that he'd vote for Fura and/or Drake instead if they weren't cleared. Speaking of Fifth... there doesn't appear to be much of a case there either. "They sound village but I'm not 100% convinced" is also not a convincing argument.

Some of the discussion in earlier cycles - particularly Cycle 2, I haven't really taken in, so I'd like to do some analysis of that - unfortunately, I don't think there's time this cycle.

Honestly, if this is what the lynch is down to this cycle, I'd rather lynch an inactive over no lynch, so Hemalurgic Headshot - they haven't posted at all recently (1 post in the last week), but have been online. Their last post did mention that they'd had a lot of trouble keeping up, which I can empathise with, but it's still worth making sure they're not just lurking.

[Young Bard]

Apologies for the double post, but there's a change of vote, so I want to make sure it gets seen.

I saw Devotary's post after I posted, and I'm inclined to agree with her logic. Hemalurgic Headshot, Elandera.

If Devotary is evil, I will be really annoyed with myself.