A Joe in the Bush

Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

718 posts in this topic

Quick question, do we have a vote count, or could someone point me to the most recent one?

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Could someone summarize the reasons for lynching Snip and Bard? I don't have the time to look at them both tonight.

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Snip should have no votes. Everyone is on kidpen now.

I think 3 on kidpen and 3 on Bard? No idea tbh. Couldnt find a vote count.

Trying really hard not to fall asleep

 

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

My long-promised analysis of Elandera:

In general, Elandera is very aware of the possibility of elim vote manips. She puts up a lot of vote tallies and also mentions how vote manips can be used as a way to trace back to the elims.

In her third post, Elandera defends Ark, who we now know is village. However, next cycle, she attacks him here:

So far, Elandera has a pretty good record. She attacked/voted on Lum and Gaea, and mostly defended Ark and me. Eventually she also voted on Alv, too. Elandera clearly didn't like her options during C3, and tried to move her vote off of Alv, but then moved it back on. I think if she was an elim, she would've pushed harder to move the lynch on Alv, and definitely wouldn't have gone with it in the beginning. See here:

Then here:

This was early enough that without Elandera's support, the Alv lynch might not have took off. Overall, this looks very villagery.

I'm not sure what to think of Elandera's attacks on Striker. It looks a lot like tunneling to me, but she has been pretty accurate so far. I'd take a look at him, but I have a feeling that my time is better spent looking at the supposed other links in the Bard-Striker-Drake-Fura circle.

I'd be happy to support Elandera for governor.

I'm not ready to say alv was definitely an elim.

Edit oops sorry forgot I posted already

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Snipexe: Fura, Striker,

Kidpen: (3) Fura, Striker, Bard

Fifth: (1) Araris

Bard: (3) Elandera, Kidpen, Fifth

I think this should be right, but I don’t know for sure. I may have missed some retractions.

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2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm not ready to say alv was definitely an elim.

Edit oops sorry forgot I posted already

I laid out a post describing why I believe lynching Alv was good for the village here.

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Kidpen(4): Drake, Fura, Striker, Bard
Bard(3): Elandera, Kidpen, Fifth
Fifth(1): Araris

Drake(4/9): Fura, Snip, Araris, Drake

Drake's vote was hidden inside a rather long post.

Kidpen happened to show up in the neutral/elim section of everyone who posted reads lists. It's unclear whether Elandera was included in Drake's list of people he trusted, but presumably Fura and Striker were. Bard then joined the vote. Less clear is why Kidpen showed up on all the elim lists, though voting for Joe C1 when both of the constable alternatives were still viable is certainly a point against him.

So far as I can tell, the Bard lynch come from Araris's suspicion of the style of Bard's D1 vote. Elandera actually voted in that direction. Kidpen apparently had some suspicion, while Fifth just didn't want to vote for Kidpen. It seems unduly hasty to swing a lynch in Bard's direction, as he's a primary ledger target to close the scanned circle even if Fura wants to hold off on that.

There aren't any votes for Snip currently. I would not say his taking a stand against immediately electing Drake as governor is indicative of guilt. If there actually was an elim conspiracy to funnel daggers towards Alvron, Snip might well have been a part of it, but there's no particular evidence beyond Alvron's claim. @Snipexe, why did you pass your dagger to Alvron?

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Posted (edited)

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

His post where he started by voting for Gaea, then switched to Joe in the same post stuck out to me. I could understand if he voted at the start of an analysis post, and then changed his mind by then end, but his post was only a few lines, so the switch seemed fake to me.

This is so not fair :( I spend like 3 cycles trying to lynch Bard for that post without making headway, and then the instant I give up and move on to something else, a bunch of people jump on the Bard train.

No, seriously, it doesn't add up. If those are your actual reasons, why did they suddenly become important today? You are creating a dangerous tied vote based on justifications you were happy to ignore one cycle ago, which is downright disingenuous. Are you sure you're not evil?

 

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@Araris Valerian, I fully acknowledge that I’ve not been a terribly useful participant in this game; turns out doing six AP classes and cross country at once doesn’t leave much SE time in one’s schedule.

Oof. That was pretty much exactly me a couple years ago. It's a lot.

 

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

First of all, I very much respect Snip’s stance at the beginning of the cycle, and though I don’t hold to all of it, he certainly doesn’t deserve to die.

Agreed. Note that Snip currently doesn't have any votes, and didn't at your time of posting, because people changed their votes to Kidpen.

 

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

I'm fairly suspicious of those who are voting on me, since I can basically be hard-cleared this cycle or next cycle when Fura or the next ledger holder closes the circle - it's quite possible that the Elims don't want a trusted group of 5 hardcleared players, or as close to it as possible, running around, and I don't blame them.

^this.

In addition to any of the other reasons I've expressed suspicion for a lynch on Bard at this point, why are we lynching somebody who is about to get scanned?

 

I have a few other comments:

  • Kind of getting tired of the discussion being consumed by this scanning chain affair with Bard/Striker/me/Fura.
    • I get it, you don't like trust circles. I don't really like them either. I never asked to be part of this. It's actually kind of inconvenient because it makes me an obvious target. But not liking something isn't really the same as thinking it's suspicious.
    • I'm not really following the logic of how being scanned as village = suspicious. Sure, it could be a massive bluff that risks the entire eliminator team being caught if even a single one of us is killed, but is that remotely likely? If you had other reasons to suspect us, fine, but I know I haven't heard any of them yet.
    • The way this is monopolizing the discussion is destructive. Please either find the courage to lynch one of us and conclusively prove yourself wrong, or don't.
  • Speaking of ledgers, isn't there more than one? One of them has been very high profile but what has been going on with the others?
  • Majority votes are extremely difficult to pass, but this is probably as close as we are going to get. So to those who haven't voted yet:
  • If any of you want a governor elected, then maybe cast a vote this cycle? I'm not asking you to vote specifically for me, elect whomever you think is trustworthy. I just don't think anyone (including, incidentally, myself :D) has a chance at being elected governor if there just plain aren't enough votes. And we can only try to elect a governor for so many cycles before people give up or the game ends.

 

Lynch Vote Tally
Kidpen (4): DrakeMarshmallow, Furamirionind, StrikerEZ, Young Bard
Young Bard (3): Elandera, Fifth Scholar, Kidpen
Fifth Scholar (1): Araris Valerian

 

Governor Vote Tally
DrakeMarshmallow (4): Furamirionind, Striker, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshmallow
Elandera (1): Arraenae

Edited by DrakeMarshmallow
my vote tracker didn't track my own vote XD
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1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

. @Snipexe, why did you pass your dagger to Alvron

Because I was essentially try to diffuse a situation we had in a pm. Plus I thought it would be interesting.

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Posted (edited)

The circle was suspicious before it was confirmed false.

That's all I'll say.

I'm considering voting Fifth. I have reasons, but I cant articulate them.

Edit

Can I pls have a whiskey tonight?

I still cant think of any disadvantages for claiming who has whiskey

Edited by Furamirionind
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27 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There aren't any votes for Snip currently. I would not say his taking a stand against immediately electing Drake as governor is indicative of guilt. If there actually was an elim conspiracy to funnel daggers towards Alvron, Snip might well have been a part of it, but there's no particular evidence beyond Alvron's claim. @Snipexe, why did you pass your dagger to Alvron?

Could you clarify this line?

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18 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Please either find the courage to lynch one of us and conclusively prove yourself wrong, or don't.

We are trying to lynch one, and you're actively discouraging it.

I admit, I've been tunneling hard on Striker. There was a turn where everything he said just set off the alarm bells of suspicion. I trusted Fura enough to not vote on him, but I can't shake what happened that turn. That's why I've got my tin foil hat solidly on my head as I push my conspiracy theory.

21 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

In addition to any of the other reasons I've expressed suspicion for a lynch on Bard at this point, why are we lynching somebody who is about to get scanned?

Part of why I'm pushing for it is because Fura didn't actually seem inclined to scan one of you this turn. That didn't help resolve my conspiracy theory suspicions, despite trusting him. 

Part of why I think Bard would be a good lynch is because it might finally help us move past the whole trust circle thing. And I'm concerned even if Fura were to scan him, elims would interfere. If Bard is elim, it would protect him. If he's village, elims would be very content to let us keep spiraling down this rabbit hole. A lynch is somewhat more difficult to interfere with, as long as the votes are right. 

17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm considering voting Fifth. I have reasons, but I cant articulate them.

I'm not sure why. He adamantly pushed for the Gaea lynch for several turns. While it could have been an attempt to appear village once Gaea was revealed, he seemed honest about it. That's, unfortunately, about all he's seemed to have time for. 

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

I'd be happy to support Elandera for governor.

Thank you for your support. :D I thought I'd already voted on myself for governor, but it's not showing in vote counts. So Elandera. 

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28 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Could you clarify this line?

It seemed that Snip was more opposed to the idea of there being a moral imperative to vote for a governor than any desire to prevent Drake specifically from becoming a governor. I personally feel 'only a concerted effort will result in a governor' is more palatable than 'if you don't vote for this person, you're evil'.  On that note, as we can always re-Governor as necessary and the likelihood of two village votes outweighs the extra 10% uncertainty if the ledger chain ends up being scanned as evil, I can add the 5/9th vote for Drake.

50 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

The circle was suspicious before it was confirmed false.

We can't prove it false yet, we just diminish it's likelihood to minuscule credibility. The conspiracy requires the elims to start out with a dagger, Striker's ledger, Drake's three boxings to bribe Kidpen, and Bard's three boxings to buy another ledger. They would then have to bus Lum and foolishly allow the ledger to pass into the market. This cycle, they would have to use two boxings to divert your ledger into the path of their dagger. For the rest of the game, they would have to make sure that nobody in the chain ever got killed or scanned, which likely means buying both ledgers from the market and have an elim not involved in the chain scan Bard. That would be the sixth elim, along with Bard, Striker, Drake, Lum, and Alv/El. At any time, the entire chain could utterly collapse if the third ledger ever showed up and scanned one of its members. With 17 players still alive and unarrested, this would be a massive gamble and thus not grounds for a lynch when we have other methods of verification available. We can choke off this theory even further by having Fura's scan go through to the correct target while making sure Fura doesn't die.

24 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Part of why I think Bard would be a good lynch is because it might finally help us move past the whole trust circle thing. And I'm concerned even if Fura were to scan him, elims would interfere. If Bard is elim, it would protect him. If he's village, elims would be very content to let us keep spiraling down this rabbit hole. A lynch is somewhat more difficult to interfere with, as long as the votes are right. 

If Bard did flip evil, would that cause you to go after Striker, Drake, and/or Fura? The ledgers are a more accurate method of determining alignment than a lynch that gives at least a 10% chance of an incorrect flip. I don't really understand where the lynch on Kidpen came from, but I would vote there over Bard. There's 30 minutes left to make any other lynch viable.

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4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It seemed that Snip was more opposed to the idea of there being a moral imperative to vote for a governor than any desire to prevent Drake specifically from becoming a governor. I personally feel 'only a concerted effort will result in a governor' is more palatable than 'if you don't vote for this person, you're evil'.  On that note, as we can always re-Governor as necessary and the likelihood of two village votes outweighs the extra 10% uncertainty if the ledger chain ends up being scanned as evil, I can add the 5/9th vote for Drake.

We can't prove it false yet, we just diminish it's likelihood to minuscule credibility. The conspiracy requires the elims to start out with a dagger, Striker's ledger, Drake's three boxings to bribe Kidpen, and Bard's three boxings to buy another ledger. They would then have to bus Lum and foolishly allow the ledger to pass into the market. This cycle, they would have to use two boxings to divert your ledger into the path of their dagger. For the rest of the game, they would have to make sure that nobody in the chain ever got killed or scanned, which likely means buying both ledgers from the market and have an elim not involved in the chain scan Bard. That would be the sixth elim, along with Bard, Striker, Drake, Lum, and Alv/El. At any time, the entire chain could utterly collapse if the third ledger ever showed up and scanned one of its members. With 17 players still alive and unarrested, this would be a massive gamble and thus not grounds for a lynch when we have other methods of verification available. We can choke off this theory even further by having Fura's scan go through to the correct target while making sure Fura doesn't die.

If Bard did flip evil, would that cause you to go after Striker, Drake, and/or Fura? The ledgers are a more accurate method of determining alignment than a lynch that gives at least a 10% chance of an incorrect flip. I don't really understand where the lynch on Kidpen came from, but I would vote there over Bard. There's 30 minutes left to make any other lynch viable.

In that case, I'll vote for Kidpen.

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7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Bard did flip evil, would that cause you to go after Striker, Drake, and/or Fura? The ledgers are a more accurate method of determining alignment than a lynch that gives at least a 10% chance of an incorrect flip. I don't really understand where the lynch on Kidpen came from, but I would vote there over Bard. There's 30 minutes left to make any other lynch viable.

If he flipped evil, and the percentage for error was low enough, I'd probably go after Drake and/or Striker. I'm still not sure about Fura, as I've read them as village for a while. 

My concern, again, is Fura doesn't seem to want to scan any of them. Unless I can get confirmation that's going to happen, I'd prefer a lynch over nothing.

Additionally, I don't think the Kidpen lynch is a good choice. Not only do I think he's probably not elim, but we'd learn far less from that lynch than a Bard lynch. 

I'm going to sleep now, so my vote will remain where it is.

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The vote is now 5-3, going on 6-3. A bribe wouldn't prevent Kidpen from dying, but could ensure that Bard goes down with him. I think the extra 5% chance of an incorrect flip is worth preventing that.

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Posted (edited)

Turn 6: Children in the Senate
⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⊰⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅∙∘☽༓☾∘∙•⋅⋅⋅•⋅⋅⊰⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅


To be added.

⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⊰⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅∙∘☽༓☾∘∙•⋅⋅⋅•⋅⋅⊰⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅⋅•⋅


Lord George (Kidpen) was Lynched! He was Childish!


Lynch Vote Tally
Kidpen (6): DrakeMarshmallow, Furamirionind, StrikerEZ, Young Bard, Arraenae, Devo
Young Bard (3): Elandera, Fifth Scholar, Kidpen
Fifth Scholar (1): Araris Valerian

Governor Vote Tally
DrakeMarshmallow (5): Furamirionind, Striker, Araris Valerian, DrakeMarshmallow, Devotary
Elandera (2): Arraenae, Elandera

Constable Altea currently has 11 Boxings, the Ledger known as The Great and Mighty Finder of Evildoers, and the Ledger known as The Coolest Ledger that Ever Ledged,

Boxing Prices:
1: Talk to an arrested player without your name being posted.
2: Open a PM with a player for the rest of the game.
2: Change someone’s Lynch vote.
1: Change someone’s Election vote.
5: Buy a random item from the Constables. 
3: Bribe a player to target someone with their item.
5: Buy a specific item from the Constables. 
42: Bribe the Constables to execute all other players. You win. Your team does not.
Note: The Execution Win con will never drop below 40 Boxings.


Player List:

 


Alive:
Araris Valerian
Arraenae
Bugsy
Butt Ad Venture
Devotary of Spontaneity
DrakeMarshmallow
Elandera
Fifth Scholar
Furamirionind
Haelbarde
Hemalurgic Headshot
Rathmaskal
Shqueeves
Snipexe
StrikerEZ
Young Bard

Arrested:
A Joe in the Bush - Just Constable
Lumgol - Kleptomaniac
RayOfSunshine - Jolly
Wilson - Righteous Constable
Alvron - Impenitent
Kidpen - Childish

Constables:
xxGaea - Alive, Unstoppable, and EVIL

Dead:
Seonid - Betrayed Governor
Burnt Spaghetti - Surprised
Elbereth - Quick-Witted

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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Well, I was going to post this analysis in response to @Elandera's post last cycle, but I think it might still be worth saying. I don't think anybody has clearly explained why it is that Striker cannot be evil yet, and I'm hoping this clears up some stuff:

Quote

We are trying to lynch one, and you're actively discouraging it.

I admit, I've been tunneling hard on Striker. There was a turn where everything he said just set off the alarm bells of suspicion. I trusted Fura enough to not vote on him, but I can't shake what happened that turn. That's why I've got my tin foil hat solidly on my head as I push my conspiracy theory.

Well, you did try to pick the only one who hasn't actually been scanned yet. I'm okay with taking my chances with alignment flips being wrong and lynching Bard, but I kind of thought the plan was for Fura to scan Bard. I specifically chose Fura as somebody who people could trust was skeptical of the existing ledger chain, because Fura was the loudest voice against it at the time. I kind of thought you were okay with that plan last cycle. I also kind of thought you had different reasons for lynching Bard, because it being because of a tunnel on Striker didn't factor into the original explanation.

You are aware that you are in a tunnel, but you have no interest in trying to get out of it? This is NAI, but it doesn't change the fact that it's a bad idea. I'm sorry if I'm being a bit forceful on this but I cannot stand by how people are more and more seeing tunneling as something that can sometimes be good. Please please please, don't be content to be in a tunnel when you have the ability to do much, much better. Maybe you justify it by thinking that you could be right, but honestly, there's no merit in being right if it happened by chance. If you are actually right, then why not try and break out of your thought pattern, approach the situation impartially, and see if you actually reach the same conclusion twice?

Suppose Striker is evil. Please consider the implications of that for a second:

  • Striker got Lum lynched. Lum flipped eliminator with a pretty high probability of it being an accurate flip, and even supposing it were wrong, elim!Striker would have no way of predicting that outcome. Your assumption requires that Striker would either take an unnecessary risk of being outed as an eliminator with 75% likelihood, just to lynch a villager, or that the eliminators bussed one of their own teammates for no apparent reason, neither of which is likely.
  • Striker tried to hammer Gaea, which would have been a direct counter to the elims vote manipulating the lynch onto wilson. Your assumption requires that Striker and me conspired to both intentionally botch the hammer, or that the eliminators planned to work at cross-purposes with themselves. Both of these are really complicated plans. Like, twice as complicated as anything I've ever seen anybody actually try to do on this forum, at least.
  • Striker was scanned by Bard, and Bard is about to get scanned. I get that you are skeptical of any alleged scans that clear villagers, which is why I already gave you two points which don't involve the scans in question in the slightest, but hear me out. Unless Fura reports that Bard is evil, which you don't appear to be interested in waiting for, your assumption requires that Bard, Striker, me, and Fura are all evil. We can also conclusively say that one of Alvron and Elbereth had to be evil, and an eliminator team of greater than five members is unlikely with this number of players. Thus, your assumption essentially requires that the eliminator team put their entire membership on the line, unnecessarily, with the lynch of a single member being tantamount to the immediate loss of the eliminator faction.
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@DrakeMarshmallow, your explanation is fair, and probably right. Last turn I was frustrated and a bit panicked that Fura didn't seem like they would actually scan any of you, which is why I was willing to push a Bard lynch. 

Part of why I have yet to actually vote on either of you is because I'm aware how bad tunnels are. Of the three, Bard has accumulated the most actual evidence of possibly being elim, which is why I was willing to put my vote on him.

I suppose I didn't say it quite right last turn. If he does show as evil, I would look closer into you and Striker. And do some actual analysis. I haven't had time to do any of that, hence me being stuck. 

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Posted (edited)

Well, the observant observer may notice my ledger in the market.

That is because I intentionally underplayed my likelyhood of scanning Bard due to overplaying it the previous turn. My hope was that I wouldnt be attacked. It apperantly didnt work.

I was redirected to Kidpen, and he is evil.

This was a misflip.

The only group that would redirect me are the elims, so they were scared I might scan them.

Elandera was already panicking, and had quite a lot to lose.

Edit

Hmm... actually, she doesnt quite fit. I need to think more

Elandera

Edited by Furamirionind
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51 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, the observant observer may notice my ledger in the market.

That is because I intentionally underplayed my likelyhood of scanning Bard due to overplaying it the previous turn. My hope was that I wouldnt be attacked. It apperantly didnt work.

I was redirected to Kidpen, and he is evil.

This was a misflip.

The only group that would redirect me are the elims, so they were scared I might scan them.

Hmm. This is weird. Why wouldn’t the elims just save their teammate by bribing instead of redirecting your scan to ONE OF THEIR OWN??

I believe you when you say Kidpen was evil (unless he actually just bribed someone the same turn he got lynched, but I don’t know why he’d do that), I’m just curious what the elims gained from having you scan him instead of trying to save him. 

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Posted (edited)

56 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Well, the observant observer may notice my ledger in the market.

That is because I intentionally underplayed my likelyhood of scanning Bard due to overplaying it the previous turn. My hope was that I wouldnt be attacked. It apperantly didnt work.

I was redirected to Kidpen, and he is evil.

This was a misflip.

The only group that would redirect me are the elims, so they were scared I might scan them.

Elandera was already panicking, and had quite a lot to lose.

Edit

Hmm... actually, she doesnt quite fit. I need to think more

Elandera

Wait, what? So, scan was redirected onto the lynch target. Interesting. Are you sure he isn't showing corrupt for another reason? Though I'm not seeing any obvious vote manipulation, so likely not.

I am more inclined to believe at this point elims redirected it onto Kidpen to keep us trapped in our echo chamber, and that Bard actually is village. It's still possible he's elim, but I want to take a closer look before I take any actions right now. Maybe get an actual scan on him. 

@A Joe in the Bush, just to clarify, buying a random item and a specific item are both supposed to cost the same?

Edited by Elandera
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1 minute ago, Elandera said:

@A Joe in the Bush, just to clarify, buying a random item and a specific item are both supposed to cost the same?

I was just taking a look at the rules myself, and no, buying a specific item costs 7, while buying a random one costs 3. 

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9 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I was just taking a look at the rules myself, and no, buying a specific item costs 7, while buying a random one costs 3. 

Costs for buying changes every turn based on demand. They're both currently at 5.

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16 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm. This is weird. Why wouldn’t the elims just save their teammate by bribing instead of redirecting your scan to ONE OF THEIR OWN??

I believe you when you say Kidpen was evil (unless he actually just bribed someone the same turn he got lynched, but I don’t know why he’d do that), I’m just curious what the elims gained from having you scan him instead of trying to save him. 

Because he was dead anyways. They wanted to get the ledger out of circulation, so had it target the lynchee.

Thinking about it, it is just as likely to be intended to remove the ledger, as to protect an individual.

I dont think Kidpen bribed anyone.

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