A Joe in the Bush

Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

718 posts in this topic

My current reads:

Spoiler

 

Village
Rae
Fifth Scholar

Slight Village
Fura
Snipexe
Araris
Rathmaskal

Neutral/No Read
Bugsy
Butt Ad Venture
Devotary
Drake
Haelbarde
Hemalurgic Headshot
Kidpen
Shqueeves

Slight Elim
StrikerEZ
Young Bard

Elim
---

 

Part of me wants to just let go of my tunneling on Striker and accept he's probably not an elim, but part of me still really just wants to lynch him so I can stop wondering.

My biggest concern right now is that the actual elims are hiding in that neutral category, content to let us just keep the focus on the wrong people. Hence why I wanted to get to a point today (though I'm at work and don't know if I'll really have the time) and read through interactions and votes from before to make sure we haven't missed anything while we've been focused on Drake/Striker/Bard.

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@A Joe in the Bush just to let you know, Elbereth appears to have migrated from the dead players list to the living one.

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I'm rather confuzzled by this game, to be honest. The lynch isn't a very reliable tool, and I've never been good at getting reads on people from PMs. I'll support Drake as Mayor, since his chances of being an elim seem rather low. 

Snipexe getting frustrated with mayoring could be an elim tell. In the first shard game, which was horrendously broken against the elims, I made a few posts to that effect. 

As for Alvron, I'm honestly not sure whether to believe his story. I'm leaning toward him being an elim, but I might be biased from my interactions with Aman recently.

I'm somewhat suspicious of Fifth for voting on me last cycle. It didn't seem like a normal vote from Fifth, and he never acknowledged my response.

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Okay, I guess I should go ahead and put a list of my reads on everyone. 

Spoiler

Village: Drake, Fura

Slight village: Devotary, Bard, Fifth

Nuetral: Araris, Bugsy, Hael, HH, Rath, Shqueeves, 

Slight elim: Rae, Venture, Elandera, Kidpen, Snip

Also, I used my warrant on @Fifth Scholar. He didn’t have any items I could steal.  

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5 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Alv flipped Elim, with seven votes on himself that means 35% chance he was villager. So I’m comfortable saying he was evil.

I think you might be comparing 35% error to 100% error, and saying 35% seems low.

You should probably be comparing it to 50% error. A 100% chance of incorrect alignment reveal just means we reverse it and we know for sure their alignment. A 50/50 chance of a fake alignment flip is the least informative. This lynch was 35/65, which isn't all that far off from 50/50.

 

4 hours ago, Young Bard said:

One thing I notice - one of the daggers from last cycle is still there - I expected them both to be gone, bought by the Elims unless the village one the bet for them. Also, no Elim kill, which is similarly revealing. I think I seriously overestimated the buying power of the Elim team - that's likely counterbalanced by something else, though - what, I'm not exactly sure. Possibly just the fact that we have unreliable lynches? But Joe didn't know that would definitely be the case when he balanced the game, so I doubt it. I'm pretty sure we have confirmation there are no secret rules this game (paranoia fuelled question, but can you confirm this, Joe?), otherwise I'd have suspicion on the trustworthiness of ledger scans or the like.

It's possible they're hoarding their boxings for bribes, perhaps? If any other Elim gets into trouble, combined with the village wanting to keep as few votes as possible on a player, they can swing the lynch for a cycle or two whenever one of there own gets in trouble - waste enough time that they can win the game.

The other major problem we'll have to start facing in the extreme late game is if anyone reaches more than 35 boxings or so - honestly, with the death rate being what it is right now, I don't think that will be an issue for a while, but it has the possibility of sneaking up on us if we're not careful. (I think it's fair to say that most of us would definitely pull off the solo win if given the opportunity, let's be honest.)

1. So, this is a reason I have certain misgivings about Alvron's flip. Alvron claimed that the deal he struck with Elbereth involved the eliminators passing him daggers in exchange for any boxings or other items he came across. In other words, according to his version of events, we already knew that the eliminators weren't interested in daggers, they wanted boxings (probably for bribery?). But if we assume Alvron was an eliminator and was lying, which you appear to have done, it is harder to reconcile the observation that the eliminators haven't bought any daggers (particularly because, lets be real, elim!Alvron would certainly have been hyping up daggers in the elim doc, and would not have supported any eliminator strategy that did not involve daggers).

  • I'm not saying Alvron definitely wasn't evil. Heck, the bit about the elims not caring about daggers might have been a grain of truth in a bigger lie. I'm just saying we don't really know, there's a lot of reasonable doubt, and we shouldn't overstate our knowledge. The temptation can be strong to snap to a conclusion that makes everything simple, but I'm not comfortable moving forward with a slipshod assumption.

2. I think it's definitely fair to say that most of us would definitely pull off the solo win if given the opportunity. This is your daily reminder that the DrakeMarshmallow "mass murder" hedge fund is still accepting donations. For some reason nobody seemed interested last cycle :( Do you think it's the branding? Maybe I should do an ad campaign?

 

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Haha, Drake you used the ledger on me?

I was actually my first choice for who you should use the ledger on, but for some reason, I felt like I didnt appose the you/striker team enough... xD

The fact that Drake didnt fake a red scan, and I wasnt attacked, basically hard clears Drake as village. As long as I get whiskey tonight, I can scan Bard and hard clear this chain...

Ah, fair enough. Well, I think it was a good person to give the ledger :P

I hate to argue against my own innocence, but I wouldn't necessarily say I was hard cleared. Faking a scan result would probably infringe upon one of our agreements, and even if I were an eliminator, I take deals seriously.

Although I have a really hard time envisioning any scenario at this point where I am evil and you aren't also an elim plant designed to fake opposition to the scanning chain and then reluctantly confirm it. It's already been established that we both like high risk plays, but... Still. Considering the price of aluminum on Scadrial, I definitely can't afford the amounts of tinfoil that such a theory would require.

 

3 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Because of this, I would be suspicious of anyone who voted for Drake after you have said this.

Drake :ph34r:

But seriously, I totally get where you're coming from here. You kind of have a point. Pushing for my election will change the way people respond.

Personally, I'm not going to suspect people very much either for voting for me or for not voting for me. I agree that this wouldn't be reasonable. I might pay attention to how they voted, though.

 

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

It doesn't have to be Drake, but right now, Drake and myself are the two I'll support, and I think people will respond better to me pushing for Drake over myself.

Edit: Even though, statistically, I'm even less likely to be an elim than Drake is... xD

Considering I know you are village, I would definitely support your election as governor.

Although I'm also perfectly happy being elected myself. I low-key wanted to run for it since before the game started.

 

Other news, Kidpen seems to be on both my elim list and the elim list of every single player I trust. There's little enough information coming from a low-active player, that when there does appear to be any kind of clear inference, I'm inclined to act on it.

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6 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

2. I think it's definitely fair to say that most of us would definitely pull off the solo win if given the opportunity. This is your daily reminder that the DrakeMarshmallow "mass murder" hedge fund is still accepting donations. For some reason nobody seemed interested last cycle :( Do you think it's the branding? Maybe I should do an ad campaign?

And this is exactly why you all should send all your boxings to me. I promise to keep them safe from the greedy hands of Drake. :ph34r:

I don't think my vote on snip is doing any good at the moment, so for the sake of putting pressure on someone else I suspect, I'll switch my vote to @Kidpen as well.

Snipexe
Kidpen

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Can someone express their suspicion of Kidpen a little better? I did a cursory read through of the thread and he didn't stick out to me. My top two suspicions are Fifth and Bard.

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9 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Can someone express their suspicion of Kidpen a little better? I did a cursory read through of the thread and he didn't stick out to me. My top two suspicions are Fifth and Bard.

The two interactions I have had with Kidpen felt forced. The first one, I made an argument for not voting for Joe, and he responded by voting for Joe and going to bed. I understand going to bed, but personally, I thought I made quite a good argument.

The second, was in the nonsense voting of C2. He basically come by just to say he didn't understand what was going on (iirc), but implied he had been keeping up with the goings on of the game.

I just don't think he has had a village mindset this game.


Why are you suspicious of Bard?

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31 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

And this is exactly why you all should send all your boxings to me. I promise to keep them safe from the greedy hands of Drake. :ph34r:

The Drake is a mythical creature known for breathing fire and hoarding treasure, and is viewed as a personification of greed across many cultures. :ph34r:

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I was kinda hoping that Snip would've backed off his reluctance to vote on Drake by now. I can understand why he's not gonna vote, even if I don't agree with the reasoning myself. 

Also, I wouldn't mind lynching Kidpen Snip

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9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why are you suspicious of Bard?

His post where he started by voting for Gaea, then switched to Joe in the same post stuck out to me. I could understand if he voted at the start of an analysis post, and then changed his mind by then end, but his post was only a few lines, so the switch seemed fake to me.

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13 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

His post where he started by voting for Gaea, then switched to Joe in the same post stuck out to me. I could understand if he voted at the start of an analysis post, and then changed his mind by then end, but his post was only a few lines, so the switch seemed fake to me.

That's actually pretty interesting. Could you quote/link that post? Until then, I'm comfortable placing a vote on Bard as well.

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Quote

Hmmm... I thought there might be a way of getting around the PM fee (opening all the PM's this cycle and then lynching Wilson) - but that's not possible.

The main problem is that there's a 1/3 chance we just kill two of the constables and then we lose access to PM's and items and we still have unreliable alignment flips. I don't see any way around that though, so Gaea. I like my PM's too much - I'd also be open to killing Joe - I think it would fit Joe's sense of humour that we have to lynch him this game to have reliable lynches - he's also, kind of by definition as the GM, 'in the Elim Doc' as the GM.

Actually, yeah. Gaea, Joe - I'm taking a gamble on Joe's sense of humour, but it's the only thing we've got beyond random chance.

 

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1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

The two interactions I have had with Kidpen felt forced. The first one, I made an argument for not voting for Joe, and he responded by voting for Joe and going to bed. I understand going to bed, but personally, I thought I made quite a good argument.

I'm just gonna be totally clear here by saying that, as has been established, there was a miscommunication there about whether the survivor lost their earlier win condition, and from the perspective I had of them becoming a completely neutral party, the logic genuinely didn't make sense.  Plus I had already typed in the vote for Joe when you posted, so I put in a response to that argument (that I didn't understand) in the same post.

A Bard lynch seems reasonable to me, and that post that Araris pointed out stood out to me as well. Depending on how that goes/how this cycle goes, I also might (ironically) be open to an Araris lynch based largely on his vote on Wilson. That's definitely a second choice from Bard though.

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Posted (edited)

7 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

I'm just gonna be totally clear here by saying that, as has been established, there was a miscommunication there about whether the survivor lost their earlier win condition, and from the perspective I had of them becoming a completely neutral party, the logic genuinely didn't make sense.  Plus I had already typed in the vote for Joe when you posted, so I put in a response to that argument (that I didn't understand) in the same post.

A Bard lynch seems reasonable to me, and that post that Araris pointed out stood out to me as well. Depending on how that goes/how this cycle goes, I also might (ironically) be open to an Araris lynch based largely on his vote on Wilson. That's definitely a second choice from Bard though.

Why would bard pass a ledger if evil?

Edited by Furamirionind
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6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

The fact that Drake didnt fake a red scan, and I wasnt attacked, basically hard clears Drake as village. As long as I get whiskey tonight, I can scan Bard and hard clear this chain...

However, that raises another question. If Bard is an elim, why would he pass the Ledger to a villager? As we all know, there is a ledger out there that no one has claimed, meaning it is held by an inactive or elim. I'd guess elim, as the inactives in this game, I think, are all active enough to pass on a ledger.

Question: So! If the elims control 2/3 Ledgers, why would they pass one on to the village?

Answer: they wouldn't. Proof being the non rotating second Ledger.

Conclusion: soft clear Bard and Striker, with a hard clear on Drake.

So... I'm thinking I wont complete the circle tonight... : )

Did we ever find out which ledger Bard had? Was it one he started with, or one he bought from the store? Evidence suggests it's the latter, as there's no particular reason Bard wouldn't have used a ledger if he started with one.

You couldn't be attacked as only Drake knew you were going to be the target. This cycle would be the point where elim!Drake attacks village!you, yet this would be a foolish plan as merely passing you a whiskey would prevent you from dying and allow you to scan Bard and catch three elims. Redirecting your ledger target and then killing them would be a far more effective strategy. It's still best to make sure you're actually protected by a whiskey though. If your ledger target does end up dead, somebody will buy the ledger currently in the shop and (if they're a villager) use it to scan Bard, so even this last plan, and the 'all four of you are evil' scenario, would only work if the elims have been sitting on a dagger this whole time, have sufficient money to do all this bribing with enough left to redirect an item and buy a specific item(the ledger) from the store, and have an as-yet-uninvolved elim to 'scan' Bard as village. At this point, we're in major tinfoil territory as opposed to the far simpler option of Drake and Fura being villagers, and probably Striker/Bard with them. 

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I think you might be comparing 35% error to 100% error, and saying 35% seems low.

You should probably be comparing it to 50% error. A 100% chance of incorrect alignment reveal just means we reverse it and we know for sure their alignment. A 50/50 chance of a fake alignment flip is the least informative. This lynch was 35/65, which isn't all that far off from 50/50.

1. So, this is a reason I have certain misgivings about Alvron's flip. Alvron claimed that the deal he struck with Elbereth involved the eliminators passing him daggers in exchange for any boxings or other items he came across. In other words, according to his version of events, we already knew that the eliminators weren't interested in daggers, they wanted boxings (probably for bribery?). But if we assume Alvron was an eliminator and was lying, which you appear to have done, it is harder to reconcile the observation that the eliminators haven't bought any daggers (particularly because, lets be real, elim!Alvron would certainly have been hyping up daggers in the elim doc, and would not have supported any eliminator strategy that did not involve daggers).

  • I'm not saying Alvron definitely wasn't evil. Heck, the bit about the elims not caring about daggers might have been a grain of truth in a bigger lie. I'm just saying we don't really know, there's a lot of reasonable doubt, and we shouldn't overstate our knowledge. The temptation can be strong to snap to a conclusion that makes everything simple, but I'm not comfortable moving forward with a slipshod assumption.

Up until last cycle, there was only ever one dagger available for sale, and Haelbarde bought it. Last cycle, there were two daggers that nobody bothered to go for. Bribes are expensive though, and there may have been a money shortage. If village!Alvron was involved in a dagger-passing conspiracy with the elims, it's unclear that he was willing to exploit it in the village's favour. Alvron at some point told Hael about receiving Snip's dagger. As Hael claimed to have a dagger but didn't pass it on, Alvron would have known that Hael was either a villager or the elims had no intention of actually honouring the deal. Killing Snip would have threatened the deal, but Hael apparently wasn't told that Alvron had reason to believe anyone passing him daggers was evil. I'm probably just confusing myself here; Snip and Hael should be better able to explain this.

30 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

The two interactions I have had with Kidpen felt forced. The first one, I made an argument for not voting for Joe, and he responded by voting for Joe and going to bed. I understand going to bed, but personally, I thought I made quite a good argument.

The second, was in the nonsense voting of C2. He basically come by just to say he didn't understand what was going on (iirc), but implied he had been keeping up with the goings on of the game.

I just don't think he has had a village mindset this game.


Why are you suspicious of Bard?

To be fair, most of your argument for not lynching Joe was based on a serious misunderstanding about how the survivor role worked. @Kidpen evidently read that section of the rules more thoroughly. 

There were arguments for not lynching constables that Kidpen appears to have missed, though notably the two main people who argued against a constable lynch (Drake and Striker) turned around and failed to hammer Gaea. Kidpen never mentioned which constable he might have supported a lynch on, though it's probably too late to ask. We never did get Kidpen's opinion on Alvron's claims, and it isn't too late to ask.

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5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

To be fair, most of your argument for not lynching Joe was based on a serious misunderstanding about how the survivor role worked. @Kidpen evidently read that section of the rules more thoroughly. 

To be fair, you are right, but the core of my argument was still relevent. It's not worth debating right now though.

As for reading the rules, I know that wasnt intended personally, but I still feel like I need to say I was at my theater both the day before, and the first cycle of the game. While there, I have minimal internet access, and chose to prioritize understanding the state of the game and players, over understanding the rules.

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14 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why would bard pass a ledger if evil?

Uhhhhh

I seriously need to start keeping a Google Doc or something so I can more easily keep track of everything that's going on. Or maybe just start only participating in simpler games.

After a read through of Cycle 3 to now I don't see what you're referring to here. Did it happen before then?

33 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

To be fair, you are right, but the core of my argument was still relevent. It's not worth debating right now though.

It's not? Whether me arguing against your argument is something I would be more likely to do as an elim seems fairly worth debating.

28 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Kidpen never mentioned which constable he might have supported a lynch on, though it's probably too late to ask. We never did get Kidpen's opinion on Alvron's claims, and it isn't too late to ask.

I honestly forget which constable I would've lynched. I think I was leaning towards Wilson? Maybe? Definitely not sure.

In terms of Alvron's claims, I'm currently thinking it's significantly more likely than not that he was an elim, and when he was up for the lynch I think I thought that the claims seemed reasonable, and I definitely would've been happy lynching someone else (not that I no who), but lynching Alv seemed reasonable enough that I was OK with going along with it.

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Quick Heads Up, starting Saturday I'm going to be rather busy IRL (moving across the country), so my activity levels will drop precipitously (which is why I asked Joe about the game lasting longer than a week).

That being said, if there are lingering suspicions about me, I wouldn't terribly mind being lynched today or tomorrow. 

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4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Can someone express their suspicion of Kidpen a little better? I did a cursory read through of the thread and he didn't stick out to me. My top two suspicions are Fifth and Bard.

@Araris Valerian, I fully acknowledge that I’ve not been a terribly useful participant in this game; turns out doing six AP classes and cross country at once doesn’t leave much SE time in one’s schedule. I’ll admit I was only skimming during my analysis, and placed a rushed vote. I’m not evil; you can scan to check me, or lynch, as I’m not being very much of a helpful force right now, but you’re still my best lead at the moment, so that’s why my vote was where it was. I will try to make sense of everything going on, but to be completely honest I’m not going to be the driving force I typically am; time is simply not my friend. 

In regards to the ledger chain, I feel like people are ignoring the possibility of Bard/Drake being evil, and then hoodwinking Striker and Fura, but if I tried to articulate this more thoroughly I’d probably fail. :P Vote to come in a bit. 

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29 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

In regards to the ledger chain, I feel like people are ignoring the possibility of Bard/Drake being evil, and then hoodwinking Striker and Fura, but if I tried to articulate this more thoroughly I’d probably fail. :P Vote to come in a bit. 

Uhhh...how could Drake be hoodwinking me? I’m the one that scanned him as good. 

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1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Uhhh...how could Drake be hoodwinking me? I’m the one that scanned him as good. 

It’s hoodwinking me, as I can’t keep up with the progression of the chain, clearly. :P 

First of all, I very much respect Snip’s stance at the beginning of the cycle, and though I don’t hold to all of it, he certainly doesn’t deserve to die. At a skim, the case against Bard is fairly unconvincing given that he is probably village, but is better than killing Snipexe, and I don’t have time to select a better candidate. It might (might) also resolve the uncertainty surrounding the ledger if we manage to keep vote counts lower than they were last cycle, and get as reliable a flip on Bard as we can. I don’t understand the case against Kidpen, which is why I can’t vote for him in good conscience. 

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I'm fairly suspicious of those who are voting on me, since I can basically be hard-cleared this cycle or next cycle when Fura or the next ledger holder closes the circle - it's quite possible that the Elims don't want a trusted group of 5 hardcleared players, or as close to it as possible, running around, and I don't blame them. Of them, Kidpen seems to be the one who's already got votes on them for both that and other reasons, and looking at the arguments and at Kidpen's history, I'm inclined to agree.

Quote

Did we ever find out which ledger Bard had? Was it one he started with, or one he bought from the store? Evidence suggests it's the latter, as there's no particular reason Bard wouldn't have used a ledger if he started with one. - Devotary

 I think I mentioned it already, but if I didn't, I bought it from the black market C1.

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My long-promised analysis of Elandera:

In general, Elandera is very aware of the possibility of elim vote manips. She puts up a lot of vote tallies and also mentions how vote manips can be used as a way to trace back to the elims.

Quote

Regarding the suspicion Ark used the dagger, I don't think it should be used to condemn either him or Snipexe. He is just brash enough of a player that I would believe village!Ark got a dagger, named it what he claimed, and over-zealously chose to use it on someone. He only had a few option for people with votes on them, and probably wanted to keep the dagger in easy circulation. Additionally, by stabbing someone a fellow Alleyverse player had voted on, the joke around the dagger name would be more potent.

In her third post, Elandera defends Ark, who we now know is village. However, next cycle, she attacks him here:

Quote

"I'm going to vote on Wilson again, for the same reasons as last time." -- Ark

This seems mildly suspicious to me. His initial response seemed to be ignoring 90% of the discussion in the thread for the day. While I understand that might be from lack of time/initial reaction to what's happening, this seems off.

So far, Elandera has a pretty good record. She attacked/voted on Lum and Gaea, and mostly defended Ark and me. Eventually she also voted on Alv, too. Elandera clearly didn't like her options during C3, and tried to move her vote off of Alv, but then moved it back on. I think if she was an elim, she would've pushed harder to move the lynch on Alv, and definitely wouldn't have gone with it in the beginning. See here:

Quote

Well, I don't like this, but I think it's better than Fura or Rae. Alvron. Fura. Please tell me your cooking up a better target. Of all the people on right now, I trust you most.

Then here:

Quote

I switched because you hadn't posted and I am about to get off for the night. It didn't seem anyone else was going to join, so I opted to move rather that have a 4-way tie.

Now that you have posted, Shqueeves Alvron 

That's it for me tonight. Goodnight. 

This was early enough that without Elandera's support, the Alv lynch might not have took off. Overall, this looks very villagery.

I'm not sure what to think of Elandera's attacks on Striker. It looks a lot like tunneling to me, but she has been pretty accurate so far. I'd take a look at him, but I have a feeling that my time is better spent looking at the supposed other links in the Bard-Striker-Drake-Fura circle.

I'd be happy to support Elandera for governor.

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Posted (edited)

I have a really bad headache, so I dont think I'm up for real analysis. Rae's is enough to stop me from voting on Elandera.

I dont like the vote on Bard.

I... dont really like the vote on Kidpen either, but the counter lynch is interesting. Bard is almost certainly a worse lynch than Kidpen.

Qith my head hurting so bad, If I see a push towards a new candidate, I might be open to that... but im really sorry Kidpen, im not physically or mentally able to relook at this lynch.

My initial vote was just a poke... 

Edit what's the votecount?

Edited by Furamirionind
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