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Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo


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44 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I'm a little flabbergasted by this. I did cast suspicion on Striker because I 100% thought he was an elim. I didn't vote on him at your own request. I was hoping for a Gaea lynch, as both you and Fifth, two players I trusted, seemed to think Gaea was the corrupt constable. However, other than Fifth, I was the only one who seemed to be advocating for the lynch. My vote on Alv was a result of not liking Rae as the top lynch, and him being the only who seemed to get enough support. I removed it when Elbereth didn't respond quickly with a vote in an attempt to get at least someone people would be willing to lynch, and hopefully get the votes from being quite so horribly spread out. When Elbereth voted, I moved it back to follow the original idea of lynching Alv. 

Mhm. Hence why I started by saying, "I think I was advocating for your lynch as you...". You are playing exactly how I believe I would be as an elim. But if I was to post right now, I wouldn't advocate for your lynch at all. I would just research you, and post what I find. What I was explaining, was my 1am thought process, which isn't worth pursuing, as it is a 1am thought process. And as you see, isn't a solid standing on its own in the slightest.

44 minutes ago, Elandera said:

And regarding your "if I was an elim" statement. You were pushing for a Gaea lynch, but not really. You stated multiple times you though Gaea was the corrupt constable, but for some reason, never wanted to vote in that direction and even discouraged people from voting there. Why was that?

Hmm, I thought I explained this in-thread, but maybe I only did in PMs too many times. 
I wanted to use lynching the constables as a method of catching the elims. That only works if everyone participates in the discussion, and it doesn't happen last minute. I felt like we didn't have time last night to have a significant conversation on which GM to lynch, with solid analysis. Therefore, we shouldn't lynch a GM.

The best way I think I previously explained it, was something like:

1. The only kill C1 was Ark, and with no kill C2, I think it unlikely they will have a consistent string of kills.
 2. 50% chance for gaining solid information on the lynch for the rest of the game, I think, is a good deal. With analysing Lum, hopefully that chance can go up.
 3. based on which GM ends up being evil, as the elims already know which is evil, we can possibly gain info as to who is on their team by watching their analysis.

Beyond that, Lum was waffling between whether we should lynch Gaea or Wilson. What I wanted to do was analyse every player and which GMs they voted for, compare that to Lum, and try to figure out the likely elim strategy of whether they were going to bus or protect. Then that gives us something to work off of... I'm just rambling now, but I think I made my point.

Also, you have played with elim!Fura several times I think. You should absolutely know elim!Fura would 100% always bus an evil Gaea. I don't care if it would make it more likely I'd get caught. The game is more fun with PMs, and it's where I work best anyways. Getting rid of PMs for an elim!Fura (or village!Fura), is worse than shooting myself in the foot

34 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Annie's pen jerked sideways.

Senator Ninoirm had acknowledged Annie's existence! This was the first time in the past six years that she could remember a Senator addressing her by her name! (Besides Onde, he didn't count.)

But...something didn't feel quite right. Annie chewed on her lip. Should she say this? So soon after Senator Ninoirm had vouched for her, too?

Yes. This was what she had attended university for. Annie stood up and cleared her throat.

"E-excuse me, Senators," Annie said. Harmony, there were so many of them here. "Senator Ninoirm, I thank you for your support. However before we can vote for you, I have one question to ask. What makes you so certain that Senators Bard, Striker, Drake, and Fifth are not corrupt?"

Senator Ninoirim smiled sadly, "Unfortunately, I am hardly certain. If I felt I could prove their innocence, I'd be suggesting them for Governor. However, I believe if they are corrupt, they just put themselves in a precarious situation, and given time, they will expose themselves. Striker scanned Drake as village, meaning they have to be on the same team. This on it's own, I find incredibly suspicious. That suspicion is mitigated by the fact that Bard scanned Striker. Striker and Drake have to be both corrupt or both senators. Bard scanning Striker as village, means that if Striker is corrupt, so is Bard. If Striker is village, that doesn't mean anything about Bard. BUT, it does make Striker less likely to be corrupt, and therefore, Drake less likely.
This is ontop of Striker scanning Lum as corrupt and her flipping elim. there was a 20% chance she would flip incorrectly, and that might have happened, but that means there is an 80% chance that the elims decided to bus Lum before they had any reason to. This is also possible though if Lum didn't have time

If we control who Drake scans, what should happen, is we scan someone who has been opposing the Drake/Striker team all game. Either the scan marks them as corrupt, and we will see how people react, or the scan will mark them as a villager, in which case, that person scans Bard to close the loop, hard clearing or hard confirming everyone in the loop. Note, if Drake scans someone as corrupt, I will be more suspicious of Drake/Striker/Bard, as scanning someone as corrupt and claiming a misflip if they flip villager, is the only way they can get out of this mess."

"Anyways, does that satisfy you as to why I "trust" them, but not really?"

EDIT:

As for Fifth, I suspect him for the exact same reason I suspect Elandera right now.

Edited by Furamirionind
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6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Mhm. Hence why I started by saying, "I think I was advocating for your lynch as you...". You are playing exactly how I believe I would be as an elim. But if I was to post right now, I wouldn't advocate for your lynch at all. I would just research you, and post what I find. What I was explaining, was my 1am thought process, which isn't worth pursuing, as it is a 1am thought process. And as you see, isn't a solid standing on its own in the slightest.

That makes sense. I know when I should be sleeping, I don't make the best decisions (hence my crazy voting :P)

Also, as to your second point regarding your stance on Gaea. That also makes more sense. I might still try to scan you if I ever get my hands on a ledger, but most of my suspicion is assuaged at the moment. At least as much as can be in this game. 

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Just now, Elandera said:

That makes sense. I know when I should be sleeping, I don't make the best decisions (hence my crazy voting :P)

Also, as to your second point regarding your stance on Gaea. That also makes more sense. I might still try to scan you if I ever get my hands on a ledger, but most of my suspicion is assuaged at the moment. At least as much as can be in this game. 

heh, fair. : ) and yeah, I really should have gone to bed long before rollover... But... but... but... xD

Also, I just realized, we need to be public about who Drake should scan. The fifth name in our PM is Wilson, so I was trying to imply he should target Fifth with the ledger... But I can't remember if Fifth has actually been opposed to the Striker/Drake team... Elandera is a good alternative one. There are others too I think, but that's off the top of my head.

Note: The person who we decide Drake should scan, HAS to be protected with Whiskey, so we NEED the players with Whiskey to claim.

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3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

That being said, i think they are village due to Bards claim, and their attempted hammer. I think Bard is village, as they could be easy mislynches. Rae I'd say is village for her hammer on Alv.  Hael is also village, as he could easily say nothing, leaving the village in the dark about what happened.

This is what I've got for the moment. @Elandera I'll get to you once I'm at a computer.

-----------

Edit: just going to point out, if Drake scans someone tonight, then there is proof that the Ledger is being used. Which means that if Striker/Drake are evil, the elim team because Bard/Striker/Drake. It would be careless to out themselves like that.

If Drake uses the ledger today, that's evidence he had one. Supposedly, Bard scanned Striker C2, and Striker then used the ledger C3 on Drake. @Young Bard, did you start with the ledger or did somebody use it to scan you C1? It's not strictly impossible that all three are evil and just passing the ledger around to each other; they wouldn't be outed as elims unless one of them was lynched and possibly not even then as the lynch results would be argued with. Most of the cases where Striker is evil requires the elims to senselessly kill teammate Lum though, which would be overly ruthless even in the interest of clearing a wide swath of the elim team. We don't know anything about Bard's alignment, except giving up a ledger to a villager could easily come back to do far more harm than the benefit of soft clearing one person. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm that search warrants still don't steal boxings?

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Elbereth should not have been killed. Therefore, I can only conclude it was by someone who didn't want her opinions populating the game. Here is my attempt to summerize what her reads seem to be:

"While we can't ask those with concealed weapons to claim, as those weapons could purely be taken away, it is important that it is known who made which attack. Everyone with Ledgers should claim, though I know currently only Sheev has one. Anyone with Whiskey should also claim. You may think it makes you more vulnerable, but as there are another 3 bottles, well 2 available bottles at the moment, it doesn't as you could still be protected. Anyone with a warrant should also claim. While it may seem counter intuitive, it means that we will know much better which items have, or are at risk, of falling to the hands of the traitors"

Elbereth was one of the three people who voted for Alvron, so anyone who wanted to bribe a vote off of Alvron, then kill the bribee would have to choose between Elandera, Elbereth, and Striker. That does presume the briber was around to see all the votes though, as the lynch on Alv switched around quite a lot. Assuming the dagger wielder is evil(Alv, according to Hael and hopefully to be confirmed by Snip), their twin motivations would be not killing a teammate and making sure the boxings didn't end up in a villager's hands. That suggests Elbereth was village, but is strikingly unhelpful in determining alignments of the other two. Elbereth was under less suspicion than Elandera, while Striker had gotten Lum lynched and claimed, but not yet confirmed, to have been scanned in turn. 

I'm pretty sure bribing someone to choose their item target goes in the redirect slot of the OOA, not the bribe slot. At least, I can't think of anything else redirects would be referring to. That means item claimants are susceptible to having their actions retargeted. If, say, we have two people with whiskey claim(one person to protect Drake, one person to protect whoever Drake plans to scan), four boxings and a dagger ensures that one or the other dies. Having that happen still gives us useful information, as the cost of item redirects is pretty steep. With PMs gone, it's probably better to have some coordination even if it's really obvious.

On a side note, do you mean that Drake is the only person that you know has a ledger? There should be three ledgers, two as a starting item and one in the shop. If one ledger is for sale and Drake has another, there would be a third ledger out there somewhere.

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Okay, I guess I jumped the gun last night when I said someone stole my boxings. My GM PM doesn’t specifically say that I lost my boxings. I asked Joe to clarify if the warrant stole my boxings, because I didn’t have anything else besides the ledger I used to scan Drake. 

Anyway, I almost wish me, Drake, Lum, and Bard were an elim team. This supposed plan between the four of us is so ballsy, and would have been so much fun to try to pull off.

Anyway, joking aside, I think we should elect a governor so they can free Lum and make her a survivor. We’d threaten to lynch her if she didn’t tell us her elim teammates. Of course, she’d probably only give one or two correct ones, and we could use which ones are wrong to try and figure out who she doesn’t tell us. 

I wouldn’t mind if Fura was the governor, though I’d prefer if one of me or Drake was the governor. We’re the only confirmed good players at this point, anyway. 

Also, @DrakeMarshmallow Who are you thinking about scanning?

Also, should I use the warrant today? And if so, on who?

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5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Drake uses the ledger today, that's evidence he had one. Supposedly, Bard scanned Striker C2, and Striker then used the ledger C3 on Drake. @Young Bard, did you start with the ledger or did somebody use it to scan you C1? It's not strictly impossible that all three are evil and just passing the ledger around to each other; they wouldn't be outed as elims unless one of them was lynched and possibly not even then as the lynch results would be argued with. Most of the cases where Striker is evil requires the elims to senselessly kill teammate Lum though, which would be overly ruthless even in the interest of clearing a wide swath of the elim team. We don't know anything about Bard's alignment, except giving up a ledger to a villager could easily come back to do far more harm than the benefit of soft clearing one person. @A Joe in the Bush, can you confirm that search warrants still don't steal boxings?

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

If Drake doesn't use the Ledger, then we have an elim team of Striker, Bard, Drake. That means they have to use it. I expect elim!Drake would do one of three things:

 1. Scan a player with the ledger, and kill that same player with a dagger. Hence needing the protection on said player
 2. Scan someone that people would be willing to lynch. If they flip village, claim it was a misflip, if they flip elim, use that as credibility.
 3. Not scan anyone, then claim they did. The person that was supposed to be scanned will mention they weren't scanned, and that will confirm one of the two is evil. Then take the same approach as option 2.

village Drake scanning a villager will allow us to hard clear Drake and Striker

village Drake scanning an elim would put us in the same situation as option 3 of Elim drake scanning a villager. Regardless, the best situation, is to control the game directly and openly at this point. I believe we started with 4 daggers. 2 are accounted for, so that only leaves 3 left... I'm honestly feeling pretty good right now, but depending on how many boxings players have, we may want to be buying stuff from Gaea. A dagger or ledger is really good.

18 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Elbereth was one of the three people who voted for Alvron, so anyone who wanted to bribe a vote off of Alvron, then kill the bribee would have to choose between Elandera, Elbereth, and Striker. That does presume the briber was around to see all the votes though, as the lynch on Alv switched around quite a lot. Assuming the dagger wielder is evil(Alv, according to Hael and hopefully to be confirmed by Snip), their twin motivations would be not killing a teammate and making sure the boxings didn't end up in a villager's hands. That suggests Elbereth was village, but is strikingly unhelpful in determining alignments of the other two. Elbereth was under less suspicion than Elandera, while Striker had gotten Lum lynched and claimed, but not yet confirmed, to have been scanned in turn. 

I'm pretty sure bribing someone to choose their item target goes in the redirect slot of the OOA, not the bribe slot. At least, I can't think of anything else redirects would be referring to. That means item claimants are susceptible to having their actions retargeted. If, say, we have two people with whiskey claim(one person to protect Drake, one person to protect whoever Drake plans to scan), four boxings and a dagger ensures that one or the other dies. Having that happen still gives us useful information, as the cost of item redirects is pretty steep. With PMs gone, it's probably better to have some coordination even if it's really obvious.

Yes, and i would love to get boxings out of the hands of the elims ASAP. Even if that causes problems for us this or next cycle. It will be better in the late game.

Excellent point that I don't think you intended to make!!!!:

If Elandera did the vote manip, she would have manipulated her own vote to keep her boxings. That narrows down the people it could have been to:

Alvron - most likely an elim. Still possibly not. Not guaranteed. Need more analysis 
Haelbarde
Kidpen - inactive or lurking?
Shqueeves

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

On a side note, do you mean that Drake is the only person that you know has a ledger? There should be three ledgers, two as a starting item and one in the shop. If one ledger is for sale and Drake has another, there would be a third ledger out there somewhere.

I completely forgot about those... So yeah, there should be two ledgers in circulation. If the second Ledger doesn't get claimed, I highly encourage anyone with a warrant to target people who have not claimed items, who they suspect, in the hopes of pulling a hidden Ledger. It's also possible an inactive/semi active has it.

13 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I almost wish me, Drake, Lum, and Bard were an elim team. This supposed plan between the four of us is so ballsy, and would have been so much fun to try to pull off.

Hmm.

14 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, joking aside, I think we should elect a governor so they can free Lum and make her a survivor. We’d threaten to lynch her if she didn’t tell us her elim teammates. Of course, she’d probably only give one or two correct ones, and we could use which ones are wrong to try and figure out who she doesn’t tell us. 

1. Yes, even if we don't elect a governor, we need to start voting. Honestly, people voting on themselves is bad, as it prevents people from analyzing their votes, but honestly, I'm just getting super paranoid.
2. Why Lum? She won't tell on her teammates. If I was in her place, I would even say I was a villager that misflipped. You can't prove that she would be lying. Would you still lynch her? Instead, why don't we use the Survivor role for fun indead? That's why i want to bring back Elbereth. I was looking forward to playing with her, and right as she was becoming active, she was killed off. She never even got around to RPing. I have considered bringing back Burnt for the same reason, but PMs are closed, and she at least is also playing the LG, where this is El's first game since I joined the community.

20 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I wouldn’t mind if Fura was the governor, though I’d prefer if one of me or Drake was the governor. We’re the only confirmed good players at this point, anyway. 

Where is your vote for Governor then?
Also, you and Drake arn't confirmed good. If you are good, then he is too. But only you know that, not the entire game.

21 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, @DrakeMarshmallow Who are you thinking about scanning?

Correction, who do you think Drake should scan? when he comes online, he will say something about it, but who he scans should, at this point in the game, be decided bby the crowd, not him.

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, should I use the warrant today? And if so, on who?

Like I will have previously said earlier in this post ( : ) ):
I suggest using it on someone you are suspicious of who didn't claim any items

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8 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why Lum? She won't tell on her teammates. If I was in her place, I would even say I was a villager that misflipped. You can't prove that she would be lying. Would you still lynch her? Instead, why don't we use the Survivor role for fun indead? That's why i want to bring back Elbereth. I was looking forward to playing with her, and right as she was becoming active, she was killed off. She never even got around to RPing. I have considered bringing back Burnt for the same reason, but PMs are closed, and she at least is also playing the LG, where this is El's first game since I joined the community.

I want to scan Lum because I still feel a little bad about scanning her so early. Like, it worked out great for us, but she got lynched super early. Plus, would elim!Striker really want to bring Lum back so she could claim she wasn’t actually elim, thereby putting suspicion on the myself, Drake, and Bard?

After reading your post though, I kinda agree that, if we’re gonna make someone a survivor, we should go ahead and choose El. 

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Where is your vote for Governor then?
Also, you and Drake arn't confirmed good. If you are good, then he is too. But only you know that, not the entire game.

Drake

I know that I’m good, and that Drake is good, so I’m going to act on that information. If you think I’m actually evil after all this, get everyone to lynch me so that there’s no chance my alignment flips incorrectly. 

13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Correction, who do you think Drake should scan? when he comes online, he will say something about it, but who he scans should, at this point in the game, be decided bby the crowd, not him.

I think he should scan one of the more inactive players, like Shqueeves or Kidpen. If he finds an elim, then we lower their team numbers even more. If we find a villager, then we can scan another player. 

14 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Like I will have previously said earlier in this post ( : ) ):
I suggest using it on someone you are suspicious of who didn't claim any items

I know who I’ll be using my warrant on as of right now, I just wanted people to advise me, in case they have a better target than the one I have right now.

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14 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I know that I’m good, and that Drake is good, so I’m going to act on that information. If you think I’m actually evil after all this, get everyone to lynch me so that there’s no chance my alignment flips incorrectly. 

Statements like this are why I keep elim reading you. I don't think you are an elim. However, every single thing you say rings alarm bells. I'm not going to waste a lynch on someone I think might be an elim. You are not doing anything to convince me you aren't an elim as well. Same with Drake. The two of you are almost exclusively interacting with each other.

Also, there IS A CHANCE your alignment will flip incorrectly. Now that Wilson is the only GM left, there will always be a chance everyone's alignment will flip incorrectly.

You think you are calling my bluff. Too bad for you, I told everyone early in the cycle I was done with my manipulation, and I was being honest.

Edit:

I just bolded part of your message:
I have already wasted far too much time analysing you and Drake. If you want me to explain why you are drastically overstating how cleared you are, please reread my previous posts.

Edited by Furamirionind
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1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Statements like this are why I keep elim reading you. I don't think you are an elim. However, every single thing you say rings alarm bells. I'm not going to waste a lynch on someone I think might be an elim. You are not doing anything to convince me you aren't an elim as well. Same with Drake. The two of you are almost exclusively interacting with each other.

Also, there IS A CHANCE your alignment will flip incorrectly. Now that Wilson is the only GM left, there will always be a chance everyone's alignment will flip incorrectly.

You think you are calling my bluff. Too bad for you, I told everyone early in the cycle I was done with my manipulation, and I was being honest.

The chance for someone’s alignment flipping incorrectly increases by 5% per vote. If we got 20 players to vote on me, we’d know for certain that my alignment would be accurate. (Also, I think you meant to say that Gaea is the only constable left)

....wait, we don’t have 20 players left anymore, do we? Shoot. 

As for you reading me as elim the more I post, I’ve noticed ever since coming back that that happens a lot more lately. Whatever quality I had before my hiatus that prevented people from suspecting me has since gone away. XD

I’m really not trying to call your bluff. Like I’ve said before, there are only five people I’m certain of the alignment in this game. Three of them are Constables, and the other two are me and Drake. I’m still not certain that Lum was actually corrupt, even if that makes the most sense to me since she didn’t claim to have bribed a vote on D1. 

If I’m setting alarm bells off for you, why won’t you lynch me? (That applies to everyone really) We can lynch someone that still has a chance of being an elim (Alv), or you could lynch me. You can choose.

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27 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, I guess I jumped the gun last night when I said someone stole my boxings. My GM PM doesn’t specifically say that I lost my boxings. I asked Joe to clarify if the warrant stole my boxings, because I didn’t have anything else besides the ledger I used to scan Drake. 

Did you or did you not have the two boxings you earlier claimed to have possessed last cycle? How many boxings do you have currently, and how many did you have last cycle?

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If Drake doesn't use the Ledger, then we have an elim team of Striker, Bard, Drake. That means they have to use it. I expect elim!Drake would do one of three things:

 1. Scan a player with the ledger, and kill that same player with a dagger. Hence needing the protection on said player
 2. Scan someone that people would be willing to lynch. If they flip village, claim it was a misflip, if they flip elim, use that as credibility.
 3. Not scan anyone, then claim they did. The person that was supposed to be scanned will mention they weren't scanned, and that will confirm one of the two is evil. Then take the same approach as option 2.

village Drake scanning a villager will allow us to hard clear Drake and Striker

village Drake scanning an elim would put us in the same situation as option 3 of Elim drake scanning a villager. Regardless, the best situation, is to control the game directly and openly at this point. I believe we started with 4 daggers. 2 are accounted for, so that only leaves 3 left... I'm honestly feeling pretty good right now, but depending on how many boxings players have, we may want to be buying stuff from Gaea. A dagger or ledger is really good.

Deciding, or at least heavily suggesting, who Drake should scan will go a long way towards closing off any possibility of the elims passing the ledger around. So we want to find someone who was opposed to as many of Striker, Drake, Bard as possible. Honestly, that's probably either you or Fifth. Although, why couldn't elim!Drake scan a villager and then tell the truth? Just because it loses a ledger?

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6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Deciding, or at least heavily suggesting, who Drake should scan will go a long way towards closing off any possibility of the elims passing the ledger around. So we want to find someone who was opposed to as many of Striker, Drake, Bard as possible. Honestly, that's probably either you or Fifth. Although, why couldn't elim!Drake scan a villager and then tell the truth? Just because it loses a ledger?

If Drake is an elim, then Striker is, which means Bard is. If elim!Drake scans a villager and reads them as village, that person then turns around and scans Striker or Drake. They will see that they are evil, and the entire elim team will be found out.

Edit:

@StrikerEZ

Quote

If I’m setting alarm bells off for you, why won’t you lynch me?

I don't know how many times I need to say this before people start listening. We can hard confirm yours and Drake's alignments. We can't even do that by lynching you.

The thing is, we can hard clear game-wise. which is immensely valuable as then we can trust any scan results you make, we can trust you with items, etc.

Does that make sense?

Edited by Furamirionind
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10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Did you or did you not have the two boxings you earlier claimed to have possessed last cycle? How many boxings do you have currently, and how many did you have last cycle?

I was told that the warrant stole all my items. Since I used the ledger last cycle, so it couldn’t have been stolen, and my only other items were the two boxings that I had last cycle, I assumed Joe meant my boxings had been stolen. I don’t know how many I have currently because Joe hasn’t told me how many I have currently. 

8 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If Drake is an elim, then Striker is, which means Bard is. If elim!Drake scans a villager and reads them as village, that person then turns around and scans Striker or Drake. They will see that they are evil, and the entire elim team will be found out.

Yeah. So why would elim!Striker advocate for Drake scanning someone who might be village and would expose elim!Striker and elim!Drake?

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't know how many times I need to say this before people start listening. We can hard confirm yours and Drake's alignments. We can't even do that by lynching you.

The thing is, we can hard clear game-wise. which is immensely valuable as then we can trust any scan results you make, we can trust you with items, etc.

Does that make sense?

That makes sense. Sorry for lashing out like that. I’m just frustrated that, even after everything that’s happened, you still don’t trust me. That problem should be solved if whoever has the unclaimed ledger would reveal that information, claim to scan me, and then Drake can scan them. If the third ledger isn’t revealed today, then we’ll have to wait for whoever Drake scans today (if they’re village) to scan me tomorrow. 

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Couple of comments, we should try to expand our focus. Clearly Striker is still suspicious, but it does no good for us to keep talking about it. 

Second, we can't bring El back. El and Burnt are dead, not in jail. The Governor can only free someone from jail, not raise them from the dead. They're not a necromancer, unfortunately. :P

We should probably get around to electing a governor soon, before the elims have the potential to outnumber us. To that end, Elandera.

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11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Second, we can't bring El back. El and Burnt are dead, not in jail. The Governor can only free someone from jail, not raise them from the dead. They're not a necromancer, unfortunately. :P

...

...

...

*starts sobbing*

Edit:

As for choosing a governor:
I would probably be fine with a Drake or Rae governor. Maybe Hael as well... idk. (Drake because he is the least likely to be an elim out of Bard/Striker/Drake, statistically.)
Off the top of my head, those are the only people who have a chance of getting my vote.

Though I would by far prefer myself as governor.

Edited by Furamirionind
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11 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Alright, I didn't die, so that means I have some info to share.

Sticking Point is my dagger. It was the dagger that started in the black market - I started with 6 boxings, so spent 3 to get an item and lucked out with the Dagger.

I was going to kill Ray of Sunshine with it. It got stolen with an unnamed warrant. That it was confiscated means that either Elbereth or RayOfSunshine must have used the Warrant on me, before getting lynched/killed. Two players knew I had the dagger - Elbereth and Alvron. Seems likely that Elbereth stole the dagger, before being killed by Alvron.

Now, JoinTheAlleyverse. Last cycle I spent my other 3 boxings to get Snipexe to target RayOfSunshine with the dagger. The action succeeded, but no kill happened. This is because the redirect item will try redirect the specified item first, then just redirect something else. Alvron claimed that Snipexe passed the dagger to him, meaning the dagger no longer was in Snipexe's posession, but as he had the warrant, the bribe still went through, and he used the Warrant on RayOfSunshine. I assume this is then the warrant named Tearable. @Snipexe, can you confirm any of these details?

Anyways, this means that Alvron was possibly the last to have the Alleyverse dagger which ended up in the black market, having killed Elbereth.

This is very interesting.

This suggests that Alv currently may have at least one dagger, as well as that Alv had the Alleyverse dagger and used it.

@Alvron have you killed anyone so far?

10 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

What the absolute storms happened when I was gone. Also, leaving the vote counts that low was...eesh. That was part of why I felt everyone had to start voting for constables—the vote counts got low enough that manipulation was too easy. While I suspect Alv, obviously, after a cursory skim over the madness of yesterday, I’m actually more suspicious of Araris for dropping a largely unexplained vote on Wilson and then seemingly leaving. My best guess for an Elim team right now would be Alv/Araris/Fura?/fourth player off the top of my head. Again, sorry if I’m less helpful right now—my head is still swimming in the mess you guys put up an hour or two ago (seriously you guys need to get better sleep schedules, at least the Americans :P), and with school starting back today I’ll have less time for analysis. That said, I will make every effort to chip in here when possible. 

Agreement with basically all of this.

Except:

Quote

My best guess for an Elim team right now would be Alv/Araris/Fura?/fourth player off the top of my head.

I have a hard time picturing Fura and Alv on the same team, considering how much Fura is out for Alv's blood. At times in the last cycle Alv had something like 5 votes, in great part due to Fura, and so there was a very real chance they could have died.

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@DrakeMarshmallow @StrikerEZ last cycle I thought It possible Drake was an elim regardless of Striker's allignment, but i would like to now challenge you both to have interactions with others, and not just the two of you.

That being said, i think they are village due to Bards claim, and their attempted hammer. I think Bard is village, as they could be easy mislynches. Rae I'd say is village for her hammer on Alv.  Hael is also village, as he could easily say nothing, leaving the village in the dark about what happened.

Edit: just going to point out, if Drake scans someone tonight, then there is proof that the Ledger is being used. Which means that if Striker/Drake are evil, the elim team because Bard/Striker/Drake. It would be careless to out themselves like that.

Re: Bard/Striker/Drake team.

Do not conflate my alignment with Bard's, because Bard could easily have reported an accurate scan result and been evil himself. Note that my vote is currently on Bard.

If Bard is village, however, that would confirm Striker. And if Striker is village, that would confirm me.

However, I have another problem with the viability of a Bard/Striker/Drake team.

The work of Striker and myself has pretty clearly helped the village.

Striker scanned Lum, and I seem to recall being much more eager to follow up on that lead than you were.

Then Striker and I tried to hammer Gaea. I'm actually kind of surprised it hasn't occurred to anyone that we botched that hammer on purpose, but 

Either of those things would honestly be enough to evade suspicion. I don't believe in using more effort than necessary to accomplish a goal, if my goal was just to become trusted. Any narrative that features Striker and me being eliminators is going to necessarily involve extremely complicated gambits, and while I adore extremely complicated gambits, I don't think I'm nearly that good. If Occam's Razor has any say in the matter, we are both villagers.

Also, I'm not interacting only with Striker. I've interacted with you, haven't I? And I've certainly interacted in some capacity with the multitude of players I've suspected.

5 hours ago, Elandera said:

Also, I'm more than a little frustrated. I should have kept my vote on Gaea, and stuck to my gut. I wish someone would have told me about the apparently planned hammer.

Yeah, sorry. I wanted to get you in on the hammer. I told both Fura and Striker that I wanted to approach you about it.

I was 90% sure you were asleep by the time I approached Fura and Striker with the idea, about an hour before rollover.

Were you around? I'm going to be kicking myself if you were.

3 hours ago, Bugsy said:

What the absolute storms happened here.

Right, well, I’m going to look through posts again to see who tried to shape the lynches on constables away from Gaea. That said, one such person was obviously Alv. (Of course, it’s wholly possible the Elims saved him to frame him, but knowing what we now do about Gaea I concur with El’s analysis from last cycle - I’m willing to make this lynch)

Hm.

I can't really put my finger on why, but this post makes me suspicious? I think?

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Elbereth should not have been killed. Therefore, I can only conclude it was by someone who didn't want her opinions populating the game. Here is my attempt to summerize what her reads seem to be:

Village Lean:
Rae
Hael

Elim Lean:
Alv
Elandera
Fifth
Fura?

Wow, you're realling going all-in on Alvron.

That's not like you. I respect that you almost always give serious consideration to your doubts. This reminds me more of how you've told me you play eliminator games than of how I've seen you work in the past.

But, maybe you're just right.

Alvron dodged the lynch. And I have a rule about Alvron dodging the lynch. Alvron has a way of doing that when he's evil.

Alvron.

I'm conflicted about this, but. Best case scenario we lynch an eliminator. Worst case scenario I have a shot at getting a knife.

But I will be clear, if Alvron turns out to be innocent, your actions here look pretty suspicious.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@DrakeMarshmallow please scan the fifth name mentioned in our PM. (to be clear, fifth name, not fifth player name)

thanks! : )

The fifth name in our PM is wilson.

Wilson is both a constable and in jail. Either of those things on their own would make her untargetable.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

control who Drake scans

And how has trying to control what Drake does worked in the past? Don't try it :P

But seriously, I'm asking you to trust me on this one. You don't have to trust in my alignment, just trust that I have good enough judgement to know what I'm doing. I already know who I'm scanning. I believe that my explanation next cycle will satisfy most people.

If it doesn't, then you may lynch me.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, I just realized, we need to be public about who Drake should scan. The fifth name in our PM is Wilson, so I was trying to imply he should target Fifth with the ledger... But I can't remember if Fifth has actually been opposed to the Striker/Drake team... Elandera is a good alternative one. There are others too I think, but that's off the top of my head.

Note: The person who we decide Drake should scan, HAS to be protected with Whiskey, so we NEED the players with Whiskey to claim.

Fifth hasn't been against me or Striker, that I can tell.

I've actually been agreeing with a lot of what Fifth has had to say, at least in this game.

Fifth didn't participate in the Striker bandwagon. Alongside Striker and me, Fifth tried very hard to lynch Gaea.

Also, why should it be public who I am scanning?

42 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, @DrakeMarshmallow Who are you thinking about scanning?

:ph34r:

19 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If Drake doesn't use the Ledger, then we have an elim team of Striker, Bard, Drake. That means they have to use it. I expect elim!Drake would do one of three things:

 1. Scan a player with the ledger, and kill that same player with a dagger. Hence needing the protection on said player
 2. Scan someone that people would be willing to lynch. If they flip village, claim it was a misflip, if they flip elim, use that as credibility.
 3. Not scan anyone, then claim they did. The person that was supposed to be scanned will mention they weren't scanned, and that will confirm one of the two is evil. Then take the same approach as option 2.

This sounds like an awfully good reason not to make it public who I am scanning, so that the elims can't just knife them.

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

After reading your post though, I kinda agree that, if we’re gonna make someone a survivor, we should go ahead and choose El. 

Drake

Why, thank you :)

I still think the chances of a governor being elected in this game are practically nil, with the requirement of a majority vote. It's been a while since that has been a requirement in any games and I think people aren't remembering just how difficult it is to reach that kind of consensus.

But, why not try. Drake.

15 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Statements like this are why I keep elim reading you. I don't think you are an elim. However, every single thing you say rings alarm bells. I'm not going to waste a lynch on someone I think might be an elim. You are not doing anything to convince me you aren't an elim as well. Same with Drake. The two of you are almost exclusively interacting with each other.

Also, there IS A CHANCE your alignment will flip incorrectly. Now that Wilson is the only GM left, there will always be a chance everyone's alignment will flip incorrectly.

You think you are calling my bluff. Too bad for you, I told everyone early in the cycle I was done with my manipulation, and I was being honest.

Edit:

I just bolded part of your message:
I have already wasted far too much time analysing you and Drake. If you want me to explain why you are drastically overstating how cleared you are, please reread my previous posts.

Yeah, I can't really blame you for having an elim gut-read on Striker.

I have an elim gut read on Striker. I said some of Striker's posts set off alarm bells for me.

I still trust Striker unequivocally at this point.

 

Other news, my primary suspect is still Rae, for lynching Joe, for fitting the bill perfectly for bussing Lum not to mention not being concerned about raising the probability that Lum flipped incorrectly, and for generally being one of the only remaining players I don't have a reason to trust.

I am also suspicious of Devotary, although I do not have a very compelling explanation for it at this point.

That is all. Congratulations for reaching the end of this wall of a post.

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56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Do not conflate my alignment with Bard's, because Bard could easily have reported an accurate scan result and been evil himself. Note that my vote is currently on Bard.

I don't, I discussed this later, which you didn't quote.
I also didn't notice your vote was on Bard.

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Then Striker and I tried to hammer Gaea. I'm actually kind of surprised it hasn't occurred to anyone that we botched that hammer on purpose, but

I have thought about it. I am just tired of thinking about the two of you. So I refrained from posting something that would start another long conversation/debate. It is funny you both missed the deadline.

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Yeah, sorry. I wanted to get you in on the hammer. I told both Fura and Striker that I wanted to approach you about it.

I was 90% sure you were asleep by the time I approached Fura and Striker with the idea, about an hour before rollover.

Were you around? I'm going to be kicking myself if you were.

5 hours ago, Bugsy said:

She was around, but trying to go to sleep.

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Wow, you're realling going all-in on Alvron.

yup

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

That's not like you

nope

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I respect that you almost always give serious consideration to your doubts. This reminds me more of how you've told me you play eliminator games than of how I've seen you work in the past.

Ok, to be honest, I am quite annoyed. I went on hiatus from SE specifically because I don't have time to play this summer. including this game. I joined, specifically to play with Hael, Burnt, Bugsy, and Elbereth. That's the only reason I'm in this game, and idk if I'll get another chance. I'll be in this community for 1 more year, then I have uni, and idk whats going to happen

C1 - I'm mostly inactive due to IRL commitments. Burnt Dies.
C2 - El and Bugsy are inactive. I focus on general game analysis as I don't have much time.
C3 - I interact with Hael a bit both in PMs and in thread. El starts becoming active, Bugsy might be becoming active? I get a village read from El, and had no idea what to think about Bugsy. Then El dies. Idk if bugsy is coming back or if he will have time.

So yeah. That's the only reason I'm in this game. 

is this also how I play as an elim? I mean, this is exactly how I played LG55, but I also said in LG56 I was going to start playing my normal games as if I was an elim, cause I got tired of people tunneling on me. Now, I haven't been trying to play this like an elim, but if I am... Oops. Maybe that's why I wasn't killed C2 though?

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I'm conflicted about this, but. Best case scenario we lynch an eliminator. Worst case scenario I have a shot at getting a knife.

But I will be clear, if Alvron turns out to be innocent, your actions here look pretty suspicious.

That's fine. I explained in our PM why I am ok lynching Alv, beyond that, Hael's info makes it seem like Alv killed El. Either he did that because he was an elim, or because he just wanted to take her out with him and he is a villager. He got his retribution against Ark, so either way, I'm happy lynching him.
If he comes and claims he didn't stab El, then that means one of Snip/Hael/Alv is lying, which brings up a completely differant discussion. So for the moment, we target him.

I don't particularly care. Hael is still alive, and as long as he is alive, I'm not going to be lynched/killed without putting up a fight, but im too frustrated to care about looking bad myself. I never care about winning directly. If I don't try to win, then the game isn't fun for anyone, but winning isn't my goal. Especially not this game. If you kill me though, do me the decency of stabbing me. That way at the very least, I'll go to the dead doc like El and Burnt.

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

The fifth name in our PM is wilson.

Wilson is both a constable and in jail. Either of those things on their own would make her untargetable.

I have already addressed this

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

And how has trying to control what Drake does worked in the past? Don't try it :P

But seriously, I'm asking you to trust me on this one. You don't have to trust in my alignment, just trust that I have good enough judgement to know what I'm doing. I already know who I'm scanning. I believe that my explanation next cycle will satisfy most people.

If it doesn't, then you may lynch me.

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

no one is storming...

forget it

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Fifth hasn't been against me or Striker, that I can tell.

I've actually been agreeing with a lot of what Fifth has had to say, at least in this game.

Fifth didn't participate in the Striker bandwagon. Alongside Striker and me, Fifth tried very hard to lynch Gaea.

Also, why should it be public who I am scanning?

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm

Me too

Im 90% certain he did, but I don't feel like checking right now.

already addressed this too.

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Why, thank you :)

I still think the chances of a governor being elected in this game are practically nil, with the requirement of a majority vote. It's been a while since that has been a requirement in any games and I think people aren't remembering just how difficult it is to reach that kind of consensus.

But, why not try. Drake.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

well, if there is a case to make Drake Governor, then I'll join I guess?

Fura, Drake

56 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Other news, my primary suspect is still Rae, for lynching Joe, for fitting the bill perfectly for bussing Lum not to mention not being concerned about raising the probability that Lum flipped incorrectly, and for generally being one of the only remaining players I don't have a reason to trust.

Sure, and that's a good reason to suspect her. But who do you think is more likely an elim? Alv or Rae?

If your answer is Alv, then her attempted hammer should be a factor in her favor. It could have been distancing, but her post was significantly longer, with analysis against Alv. If her vote had counted, Alv would be dead as well. And it sets up for an Alv lynch this cycle.

Edit:

If Burnt or El were killed because the elims felt they needed to kill them, then that's fine. But I can't see any reason villagers or elims would choose to kill El over someone else like Bugsy, me, Drake, Striker, etc.

Edit again:

Unless El was on point with her reads. But she read me as elim.

Edited by Furamirionind
grammar punctuation stuff
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6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

is this also how I play as an elim? I mean, this is exactly how I played LG55, but I also said in LG56 I was going to start playing my normal games as if I was an elim, cause I got tired of people tunneling on me. Now, I haven't been trying to play this like an elim, but if I am... Oops. Maybe that's why I wasn't killed C2 though?

 

I don't particularly care. Hael is still alive, and as long as he is alive, I'm not going to be lynched/killed without putting up a fight, but im too frustrated to care about looking bad myself. I never care about winning directly. If I don't try to win, then the game isn't fun for anyone, but winning isn't my goal. Especially not this game. If you kill me though, do me the decency of stabbing me. That way at the very least, I'll go to the dead doc like El and Burnt.

 

Sure, and that's a good reason to suspect her. But who do you think is more likely an elim? Alv or Rae?

If your answer is Alv, then her attempted hammer should be a factor in her favor. It could have been distancing, but her post was significantly longer, with analysis against Alv. If her vote had counted, Alv would be dead as well. And it sets up for an Alv lynch this cycle.

Fair enough. I'm not particualarly expecting a consistent playstyle, considering the vast inconsistency of my own, and I'll take this under advisement.

I'm not interested in killing you. I kind of told you in PM that I wouldn't pursue that path, at least without a very good reason.

I honestly don't know. I agree that it's unlikely that Alv and Rae are both eliminators. But I have enough reason to suspect either of them independently that I'm pretty sure one of them is evil, and if Alv flips innocent, Rae is my next target.

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1 minute ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Fair enough. I'm not particualarly expecting a consistent playstyle, considering the vast inconsistency of my own, and I'll take this under advisement

the only games I played with the same tone/mentality are the MU championship and LG50. Other than those, historically, every game I have played, I have with a very different mindset and playstyle. There are some parts that are consistent, like trying to organize village actions in-thread, which historically, no one has listened to... and love of PMs. Everything else about my playstyle varies drastically between games.

Probably because I am a big fan of high risk high reward plays, and those work drastically different depending on the ruleset.

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11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Probably because I am a big fan of high risk high reward plays

:ph34r:

One of these days, we are going to be on an eliminator team together.

And it's either going to be a completely ridiculous failure, or an eliminator victory that goes down in SE history.

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Wow, look at that.  Lots of votes and @'s on me.  But seriously, why @me when I'm never on at that time?  Anyway, I'm not going to respond to everything as there's just too much. :P  I shall clear the air on some matters though.

Firstly and most importantly, @Elbereth, I'm sorry for killing you.  I didn't see your PM about you moving your own vote until after write up.
 

13 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Alright, I didn't die, so that means I have some info to share.

Sticking Point is my dagger. It was the dagger that started in the black market - I started with 6 boxings, so spent 3 to get an item and lucked out with the Dagger.

I was going to kill Ray of Sunshine with it. It got stolen with an unnamed warrant. That it was confiscated means that either Elbereth or RayOfSunshine must have used the Warrant on me, before getting lynched/killed. Two players knew I had the dagger - Elbereth and Alvron. Seems likely that Elbereth stole the dagger, before being killed by Alvron.

Now, JoinTheAlleyverse. Last cycle I spent my other 3 boxings to get Snipexe to target RayOfSunshine with the dagger. The action succeeded, but no kill happened. This is because the redirect item will try redirect the specified item first, then just redirect something else. Alvron claimed that Snipexe passed the dagger to him, meaning the dagger no longer was in Snipexe's posession, but as he had the warrant, the bribe still went through, and he used the Warrant on RayOfSunshine. I assume this is then the warrant named Tearable. @Snipexe, can you confirm any of these details?

Anyways, this means that Alvron was possibly the last to have the Alleyverse dagger which ended up in the black market, having killed Elbereth.

Alv

Edit: I'm now very annoyed. First Burnt dies, then Elbereth. @Elbereth - I guess our team up is going to have to wait for another game... :'(

I can confirm almost everything here.  Hael did claim to have brought the Dagger and what he named it.  He also told me he was going to bribe Snip into attacking Ark but it didn't work because Snip had already agreed to send the Dagger to me. @Haelbarde, sorry I didn't tell you but if I had you likely would've changed your mind and I couldn't be 100% certian that Snip was going to pass me the Dagger.  @Snipexe, sorry I didn't warn you about Hael's Bribe but I felt that telling you would mean you would cancel your order.  Besides, you did get three Boxings out of it so I think that's something.

13 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

Alv claimed to have a dagger named Instant Regret. So they still have access to at least one dagger, before retrieving any further daggers. I believe Alv was hoping to get his hands on my dagger after the RayOfSunshine death, though I guess there was only a 33% chance he'd get it instead of Rae or Fura.

This is just nothing but lies.  Hael, I never said Instant Regret was a Dagger.  Just that I started with it.  I was the one that was going to attack Ark and you knew that so why you're claiming otherwise I don't know.  Also, when someone is lynched all items go to Gaea not to those that vote on them so me voting on someone being lynched would not have gotten me your Dagger.  Again, I have no idea why you would think any of the things in your post.

47 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

@Alvron have you killed anyone so far?

Alvron dodged the lynch. And I have a rule about Alvron dodging the lynch. Alvron has a way of doing that when he's evil.

Yes, yes I have.  I killed El.  See above for the confession.  See below for the reason.

That's ... that's a good rule.  Don't let me dodge the lynch too often in one game.  It will only end badly for you.


Now then, as to why I did everything I did.  That's a long story but I'll keep it brief.  I discovered an elim very early on.  It was El but since I like El, wanted Daggers and Burnt had been killed I decided to take a chance for some fun and PMed her revealing I knew her alignment.  She denied it of course but that didn't last long given the offer I made.  In the end we had a deal.  They give me Daggers for me to use on whoever I wish so long as I tell them my target before rollover. (El, in future make sure to include a timeframe in those kind of deals as I was going to do it right before rollover giving you no time to plan a save.) In addition, I was to give them any non dagger items I came across including boxings.  Since I didn't care for other items, I agreed.  (Sidenote: I really think it's unfair that Joe doesn't let us name our Boxings.)  To make it perfectly clear, El was the only elim I was aware of nor was I told that Gaea was the corrupt constable.  Everything I said regarding keeping the Black Market around was true.  I wanted Daggers and this gave me a way to get them without relying on them being passed to me.

Also that cycle, I contacted Snip after I made the in thread request for Daggers to be passed to me to see if they would be willing to do just that.  Snip agreed and passed me JoinTheAlleyverse.

Hael sent me a PM letting me know that if I wanted revenge for Burnts death then he was willing to help.  He eventually told me that he had brought Sticking Point and we kinda had a loose plan to go on a murderizing spree.

Now then, as to last cycle, which by the way was awesomely chaotic.  When I saw Els vote on me I thought she was ending our deal.  What I didn't see is that she had sent a PM to me saying she planned to bribe her own vote onto Wilson.  I figured that if I'm going down, I'll have some fun with it.  I placed orders to stab El with JoinTheAlleyverse.  At first I was going to stab Ark as I had planned with Hael but with how the lynch was going I felt it wasn't necessary anymore.

Now, I fully and expect to get lynched.  Storms, I would vote for me if I was you.  To be honest I expected it last cycle but it seems The Gods of Luck and Chance decided otherwise.

I think that's everything.


In short, sorry El for killing you.  Sorry Hael for not letting you know the other deals I had.  Sorry Burnt for not killing Ark and getting revenge.  I hope the chaos last cycle made up for some of it.

Any questions?

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Just now, Furamirionind said:

Yes. 1. And I know you are expecting it to be asked.

How do you know if she was evil?

I thought it was very clear in my post.  Did I not make it clear that Instant Regret is not a Dagger?

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6 minutes ago, Alvron said:

I thought it was very clear in my post.  Did I not make it clear that Instant Regret is not a Dagger?

What did El do with Instant Regret? I’d very much like to know what happened to that ledger. 

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