Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

@StrikerEZ I'm just going to say this post is suspicious, especially the emotions about Joe. I know it's already been said, and my thoughts will come more later, but wanted to add my voice here since it was literally my first thought on reading this post. 

I’ve addressed this several times this game since I’ve made this post (though I think maybe one of those times was to Fura in our PM, not sure), but I guess I’ll do this again. 

I wrote my post like that because I’d been banking on Joe being evil. In a perfect world, I wanted to keep both the black market and the PMs around. Is that what we got? No. Was I tunneling on Joe, hoping that would be the result? Yes. 

Anyway, I don’t think I’d mind an Alv lynch. It does feel a bit suspicious how much he’s commented about how normal it is for him to advocate for not removing the black market. 

I’ll disagree with you on Fura, but I’ll admit most of the reasons why are because of his tone in our PMs sounding sincere to me. 

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I don’t think I’d mind an Alv lynch.

Alv has been giving me a bit of a suspicious gut read, but I keep dismissing it because, well, Alv. I always get a bad gut read on him. I don't think I'd want to lynch him just because they're no other candidates, though. Maybe, but not probably.

[Elbereth]

Part 2! 

12 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Hmm. So at the risk of sparking the same debate again, I’d like Gaea dead. If Lum was the one to bribe my vote away from Gaea and onto Wilson, that smells a bit like conspiracy to me, though I’d be willing to give any players other state are suspecting a look. Sorry if my analysis is less focused/detailed; there’s a reason I don’t join QFs that often and the pacing is one of them. 

This post (and one a few quotes below) is what sort of makes me suspicious? Fifth is playing very safe here in lynching a constable rather than any players, and has set it up well such that he can justify this lynch admirably. I'm admittedly out of practice and don't know how normal this is, but it reads a little off to me. 

8 hours ago, Bugsy said:

Hello, all! I promised a readthrough of the thread last night, and I'm following through now. It's long, though, so be warned. I'm spoilering it to prevent thread bloat. 

  Reveal hidden contents

  

Honestly, this might be for the best. Elims can only kill with daggers, and I'm not entirely on board with keeping a system around that lets them get more.

Feels like there's more to this than just an offhanded quip, but I might be reading into it too much.

I'm... not sure how that's become conventional wisdom already, especially considering it's the main way for corrupt Senators to get more kills, but you do you  

I rather agree with this assessment. Better someone reasonable be made governor than someone who's not - it would allow us to hold them accountable, since if they use it in an illogical / improper way, they're clearly deserving of suspicion 

Fura, this post alone is enough to make me immediately suspicious of you

The first paragraph is sowing disinformation. If that was accidental, it would be neutral. If it's deliberate, it's a strong elim indicator. Taken together, that statement has quite an elim lean in my opinion. As for the second, people with daggers should most certainly not claim. The Corrupt Senators likely won't, so they'll just know who to target to get more weapons for their own use. 

You're my first suspicion of the game.

Ehhh. Vote manipulation is a very real concern.    

I agree with your first paragraph, not so much with your second. Although, I wonder, could we free a constable with the Survivor role? If we could, we could potentially kill all 3 without having any be corrupt. 

Village lean on you.     

Ehh. If that happens, we just threaten the player with a lynch / kill unless they out their teammates. The Survivor is no longer village and just wants to live - by guaranteeing them protection if only they sell out their team, but promising to kill them otherwise, we create a liability for the elim team.    

Right, this is in character for Alv. Village lean

Lum doesn't seem like the type to go all-in on something like this when she's an eliminator, which means in her ranking of who we should lynch (Joe > Gaea > Wilson), I rather doubt she'd put the corrupt constable at the bottom. Which reinforces my belief that it's Gaea. 

Much more concise than what I said, but very much agreed

There is potential for confirmed good villagers in this game, so PMs would likely be more beneficial than not. Still, I agree that they're not the hugely important thing many are making them out to be.

Hmm. For most people, it would be out of character to coach a vote in RP with little to no explanation, but it's not excessively so in this case. Still, Elim lean. 

I certainly don't clear him either, but I definitely have a village lean - there was enough activity after what he said that I think we can presume he as an Elim wouldn't have thought the Joe lynch was secure. Also, both Kidpen and Rae (plus Alv, but I think he's village) voted on Joe after that time; my gut tells me at least one of them is Elim, and if the Elims felt the need to strengthen the vote last minute it's doubtful one of their number would have weakened it by voting on Gaea.

I disagree. This is where the corrupt constable becomes super important for the Elims - the uncertainty of it means Snip could very well confuse or obfuscate and pull it off correctly.

I see similar strategies, but all rely on either items that are in limited supply or information reveals that the village can exploit. I quite strongly disagree with your conclusion as to the value of the black market. 

It wouldn't take much to produce a pattern, either - between the statistical noise from villagers making bribes and the intentional attempts at misdirection, the Elims could fairly easily make such analysis useless given we have no way of seeing who made the bribes. 

These two statements sort of show the errors in each other. If we keep our votes to 4, elims can save each other and even save villagers to drive mislynches. And what's to stop a villager from saving themselves?    

Alright, this seems super forced. I'm guessing this is distancing, in all honesty.    

...huh. Looks like I was probably wrong? If Striker is who started the chain, I doubt he'd be on the same team as Lum. Bussing a teammate this early seems unlikely.     

Heh, this is quite cleverly phrased
(I'm still suspicious of you, though)     

I mean, that could be. I honestly wouldn't be surprised

TL;DR: Somewhat suspicious of Gaea, Rae, and Fura, conflicted about Striker, village lean on Alv, Drake, and Fifth.

And lastly, a note about Snip and the dagger: there's every possibility that the Elims just gave it to him in the hopes of stealing it back next turn - using it on Burnt would tell them precisely where it was, so they could potentially use it again (after sowing suspicion of Snip and Ark as well)

Thank you for the support in your spoiler.  

And excellent point there, which I'm glad you brought up because I hadn't thought of it. So thanks. 

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I do agree that we shouldn’t rush into lynching a constable. At this point, I wouldn’t mind lynching either of the Constables though.

I hadn’t even thought of Hael’s post that way. I think it’s more likely he was an insightful villager, but it might be worth it to think about lynching him later if we can’t get any leads. 

With a lack of any better leads, and since I trust Devotary since she passed the PM chain message on yesterday, Rae. @Arraenae

This post also reads weird to me! Because of course it does. I think it's very wishy-washy - you don't want to rush into lynching a constable, but would happily lynch either. Hael seems villagey, but maybe we should be suspicious of him later. And I'm very tired, so maybe I missed it, but the lack of justification for the vote (and the distancing from it as 'it's the best I have even though it's not great') doesn't make me any happier. 

Sigh. 

8 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My question to those advocating that we wait to lynch the second Constable: why? We’re only going to start losing voices and opinions as the game progresses, so getting more input now, while there’s still a reasonable bias towards villagers, would be quite helpful; further, regardless of whether or not we catch the corrupt constable, we will get good reads on the Elims at the very least, as they’ll be obliged to push the lynch towards the incorrect constable while at the same time distancing themselves from a poor outcome. 

The very fact that either constable lynch would lead to reads on players' alignments based on which way they swung makes me think quite strongly that every elim's reaction will be essentially NAI - I don't think there's that much information we can draw from this tactic when they know about it in advance. 

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I mean... sure I guess... I made my charecter this specifically for interactions with Elbereth and Bugsy though :D. Iirc, I even hinted at them within my first 2-3 RP posts. The nieve young one, and the old wise one with her constituents best at heart.

I'm looking forward to once @Elbereth and @Bugsy get time to RP. : )

Tomorrow, I promise, I'm too tired tonight.  

32 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Hate to play devils advocate and I know it's late in the cycle but what if the flip was wrong.  The more I think about it, the more I can't see why Lum didn't offload their items.  Passing comes before everything else so why not give them to another elim?  Lum had plenty of time to do so as the lynch was turned to them with hours to go in the cycle and they did post a couple of times afterwards so there isn't any reason not to ditch the Ledger at very least.  Not having the Ledger would likely make us question if it's a true flip or not on it's own.  But they did have one which supports Strikers story.

I'm very likely overthinking it but I feel really uncomfortable with how that turned out.  If Elim, getting rid of the Ledger would be the best option but being Village they wouldn't know who to pass it to that could be trusted.  There is a third option in that Striker or an Elim passed a Ledger to Lum before they got lynched to insure one would be revealed.  I'm kinda ruling that one out though as it just leads to an IKYK that even I don't want to toy with.


As for todays lynch, I'm not voting for Gaea under any circumstances.  In fact I oppose it completely.  If we must lynch a Constable (which I still think is a waste) then I'm voting for Wilson.  I'm really not seeing any reason to lynch Rae.  If anyone can give a proper reason why they think she's suspicious I might be willing to change my vote.

More elim read here, though I might be tunneling. 

 

So... I'm sort of conflicted on the constable lynch. I wouldn't mind having it out of the way, as it gives people something to hide behind instead of analyzing other players. (Looking at you, Fifth.) I tentatively agree it's more likely to be Gaea, so will vote on her out of the two. 

The players I'm suspicious of are Fifth, Fura, Alv, and Striker (ish). Neutral on Bugsy, Drake, Elandera, and Devotary. Little bit village on Hael. Not sure about anyone else (which is... kind of different from neutral? Lack of read despite considering it is different than lack of read due to lack of posts or my consideration). 

Of those, Fura is the one I like best, by a very tiny margin. If people are interested in switching there, I'll leave my vote there - may otherwise switch to Gaea in approximately half an hour because I'd rather Gaea than Rae, personally. (I'm still not really clear on why the Rae lynch is happening at all, tbh.) 

 

Ninja'd by Striker and Elandera. Would be willing to move my vote to Alv, if you two would go with that? 

Sigh. I'd really much rather have big bandwagons than tiny ones and we just flip the alignment probability - having this much power to change things at the end of the cycle when a lot of people are already gone isn't my favorite thing. But SE is bad at decisions, apparently.  

(Edit: I'm well aware this is a double post, but thought it worth it since things are moving so quickly around here)

[Furamirionind]

With this post, I am officially giving up on saving my 100th post. My thing will just be honorary I suppose. : /

People saying (up until now) striker is village, is getting a temp village read by me. Im trying to exclude people who aren't online right now, but there aren't quite few of them...

edit: lol did Alv merge El's posts?

Edited August 7, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elandera]

Well, I don't like this, but I think it's better than Fura or Rae. Alvron. Fura. Please tell me your cooking up a better target. Of all the people on right now, I trust you most.

[Alvron]

15 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

@Alvron I actually have a bit of an elim read on you for once? I feel like you're using wanting the black market, which you'd do regardless of alignment, as an easy way to defend Gaea without having anyone read you badly for it, and you're playing it up a great deal (to the extent it's most of what you're responding to, and your actual reads are a lot sparser). 

Yay?  It's nice when people get a read on me even if it's wrong.  I admit, I am playing up my desire to keep the Market around.  I signed up for the items and I don't want to see my best chance of getting some disappear at the start of the game.  I tend to get carried away when there's something I feel passionate about.

11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I don’t think I’d mind an Alv lynch. It does feel a bit suspicious how much he’s commented about how normal it is for him to advocate for not removing the black market. 

I don't mind an Alv lynch but only if I'm tied.  It's more fun that way.

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

edit: lol did Alv merge El's posts?

Indeed I did.  

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, El, you better follow through. Rae Alv

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, El, you better follow through. Rae Alv

Or leave it at a tie that would make Alv proud. 

EDIT: I'm pretty sure it's tied between Alv, Rae, Fura, and Wilson, at the moment.

Edited August 7, 2019 by Elandera
Tied, not died. Though that might be the end result-ish.

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Or leave it at a tie that would make Alv proud. 

EDIT: I'm pretty sure it's died between Alv, Rae, Fura, and Wilson, at the moment.

I mean...if Fura or Wilson weren’t options right now, I think I’d be fine with the lynch as is.  

[Furamirionind]

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Well, I don't like this, but I think it's better than Fura or Rae. Alvron. Fura. Please tell me your cooking up a better target. Of all the people on right now, I trust you most.

Bugsy
Snipexe

Araris Valerian
Hemalurgic Headshot

Alvron

RayOfSunshine
Shqueeves

Rathmaskal
Kidpen
Young Bard

are all viable lynch candidates right now. Pls ignore order of them, that's my frantic brain organizing them semi-randomly. 
I don't personally agree with the crossed out ones. Bugsy as he just posted good analysis, and the others based on gut.
Have you all looked into Alv before voting on him? I will now, but I have been not getting a read on him.  I think I have only played with Alv while he is evil before (except LG51, which was very different), so I don't have experience with him.

These people I don't think should be lynched today, but there is very possibly an elim among them, and this is only my list for today. Doesn't necessarily reflect my reads list.:
StrikerEZ
DrakeMarshmallow
Fifth Scholar
Rae
Haelbarde
Elandera
Elbereth
Devotary of Spontaneity
Butt Ad Venture

Edit: @Kidpen I see you in thread, you never responded to my question... edit again... and you are gone...

Edited August 7, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Alvron]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean...if Fura or Wilson weren’t options right now, I think I’d be fine with the lynch as is.  

We can always tie it up between me and Ark/Ray.  Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide if I get my revenge or not.

[Haelbarde]

Vote Tally
Gaea (1): Fifth, Elandera{1}
Rae (2): Drake, Striker{1}, Ray
Wilson (2): Araris, Alvron
Fura (2): Fura, Elbereth,
Alv (2): Elandera{2}, Striker{2}

So, yes, we've a 4 way tie on our hands. I don't care for a constable lynch this cycle, and I agree with El than I'm not really feeling the Rae lynch, which is mostly because she voted late on Lumgol, right?

I need to think further about Fura and Alv...

[Furamirionind]

Just now, Alvron said:

We can always tie it up between me and Ark/Ray.  Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide if I get my revenge or not.

Doesn't everyone die in a tie?

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Alvron said:

We can always tie it up between me and Ark/Ray.  Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide if I get my revenge or not.

It would be nice, but ties end with all arrested, unfortunately.

Alv.

New proposal. 

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Bugsy
Snipexe

Araris Valerian
Hemalurgic Headshot

Alvron

RayOfSunshine
Shqueeves

Rathmaskal
Kidpen
Young Bard

We go for the inactive lynch, based on Fura's list. Especially since none of us can seem to agree on a viable target.

Shqueeves

[Alvron]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Doesn't everyone die in a tie?

Ah, chull.  Still worth it imo.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Rae(2): Drake, Ray
Fura(2): Fura, Elandera
Wilson(2): Araris, Alv
Gaea(1): Fifth
Shqueeves(1): Elandera

Looks like the lynch has turned into quite a mess, with a decent likelihood of multiple deaths.  

Edit: Why is the keyboard shortcut so easy to do accidentally? Actual thoughts coming soon, but I don't think I'll be voting for Fura. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Haelbarde]

3 minutes ago, Alvron said:

We can always tie it up between me and Ark/Ray.  Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide if I get my revenge or not.

I wouldn't be against that. I'll stick a vote on Sunshine for revenge.

[DrakeMarshall]

18 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

@DrakeMarshmallow not knowing the game, the difference between that game and this one is that in this one Fura's suggestion was actively detrimental.

Well, since you mentioned me...

It's debatable whether it is actively detrimental (I'm not sure I agree with the hypothesis that the eliminators would target people holding items, since they will have to reveal themselves by voting on their targets if they want to prevent the items from just passing to a different villager), but I don't actually think it matters in this case. It's human nature to do the same kinds of things that you've done before, and at least to me that is a far more probable explanation for why somebody would do something, that has nothing to do with alignment.

[StrikerEZ]

@Devotary of Spontaneity Where are the votes on Alv?

[Alvron]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

@Devotary of Spontaneity Where are the votes on Alv?

Lost in the Shadows......

[StrikerEZ]

Someone should really start making an accurate vote tally. Because this is just pure chaos at this point. 

[Haelbarde]

 

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Rae(2): Drake, Ray
Fura(2): Fura, Elandera
Wilson(2): Araris, Alv
Gaea(1): Fifth
Shqueeves(1): Elandera

Looks like the lynch has turned into quite a mess, with a decent likelihood of multiple deaths.  

You missed Striker's vote on Alv I think?

Think that makes it:

Vote Tally
Gaea (1): Fifth, Elandera{1}
Rae (2): Drake, Striker{1}, Ray
Wilson (2): Araris, Alvron
Fura (2): Fura, Elbereth,
Alv (1): Elandera{2}, Striker{2}
Shqueeves (1): Elandera{3}
RayOfSunshine (1): Hael

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Where are the votes on Alv?

I was trying to hit Shift+Enter to paste in the votes on Alv after Elandera's retraction, and hit Control+Enter instead. Here is the actual vote tally.

Rae(2): Drake, Ray
Fura(2): Fura, Elandera
Wilson(2): Araris, Alv
Alv(1): Striker
Gaea(1): Fifth
Shqueeves(1): Elandera
Ray(1): Hael

 

[DrakeMarshall]

Vote Tally
Alvron (3): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZ
Arraenae (2): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine
little wilson (2): Alvron, Araris Valerian
xxGaea (1): Fifth Scholar
Furamirionind (1): Furamirionind

Done 

Edit: Ninja'd. Twice. Oof.

Edit2: Does my script seriously not have Fura in it? Fixed.

Edited August 7, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow
still up to date

[Elbereth]

17 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Indeed I did.  

Sigh.  Fair. 

6 minutes ago, Elandera said:

It would be nice, but ties end with all arrested, unfortunately.

Alv.

New proposal. 

We go for the inactive lynch, based on Fura's list. Especially since none of us can seem to agree on a viable target.

Shqueeves

Very not down with that. I want information, and inactive lynches do not give them. 

4 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Well, since you mentioned me...

It's debatable whether it is actively detrimental (I'm not sure I agree with the hypothesis that the eliminators would target people holding items, since they will have to reveal themselves by voting on their targets if they want to prevent the items from just passing to a different villager), but I don't actually think it matters in this case. It's human nature to do the same kinds of things that you've done before, and at least to me that is a far more probable explanation for why somebody would do something, that has nothing to do with alignment.

Okay, I can see that argument. I may have to reread the rules though - I was saying elims would just use a search warrant on people with daggers. Why would that not work? 

Alv. Mildly less suspicious of Fura, mildly more so of Elandera. 

Esit: ninja’s by four different vote counts. Okay then.  

Edited August 7, 2019 by Elbereth