Quick Fix Game 39: Corruption in the Senate 2: Allomantic Boogaloo

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

So there was a 20% chance that Lum's alignment would flip, correct? So it's more likely than not that she is indeed an Elim.

[Shqueeves]

25%. A one in 4 that Lum wasn't evil. 

[StrikerEZ]

If Lum was good (which she most likely wasn’t, since she never claimed to have bribed the other vote), there was a 25% chance that we’d get the result we got. Would elim!Me risk a follow-up lynch on myself if Lum had shown up good? Maybe? If I had come up with the Lum claim around when the lynch was starting to form on me, I think that plan would’ve made sense. It would’ve kept me around for a little while longer without having to bribe votes off me and elim!Me would’ve lynched a villager in the process (and possibly got some credit if the 25% happened and Lum flipped corrupt when she was actually good). However, one of the first things I did yesterday morning was PM Devotary the result of my scan. Either I suspected a lynch would form on me yesterday, and I wanted a quick way to get out of it, or I really did scan Lum as corrupt. 

Now, onto some quick, off the top of my head analysis before I go to work in a couple minutes.

I’m almost certain that at least one of the people who voted on Lum was also corrupt. And it’s possible that one of the people in the chain (me, Devotary, Snip, and technically Fura since I told him about the scan as well) is corrupt. I’m not willing to bet a lynch on either of those things yet, but we’ll see how things go once I get off work. 

[Furamirionind]

First of all, Sorry @Lumgol. It sucks to die so early as an elim. Particularly when your death was due to a scan and had nothing to do with you. : /

18 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

If Lum was good

Let me stop you right there. She wasn't. She is evil.

1. There is a 75% chance she is evil, due to voting numbers.
2. She didn't claim to have bribed anyone, and even if she did, if she claimed to have Bribed Kidpen, one of her/Drake is evil. If she claimed to have Bribed Fifth, she is still probably evil, as there is no village reason (I can think of) to bribe him
3. We can confirm she was scanned as she has a ledger in her inventory.

While this can't technically make it 100% known she is evil, I'd give it a good 98.74% chance she is evil.

Not completely certain what she is trying to say here. It seems like she is trying to go after Joe, while saying not to lynch Gaea or Wilson, but then says Gaea would be the better lynch between them. Reading this though, I'm not sure if Lum realized we can only lynch 2/3 of the constables.

Attacks Striker. Doesn't really mean anything.

Again, not certain what this post is intended for. Once I heard she was evil, I created a PM with her. But the fact she never responded makes me think she has been fairly busy lately. Super insane theory: Striker and Lum are both evil, but Lum didn't have time for the game, so the elims bussed her.
Ok, that's probably not the case, but had to get it out there.
Anyways, if she was busy, then likely she skimmed through the thread to look at the first two people she could. When I am rushed, I tend to avoid my teammates, as Rushed!Fura has in the past, outed their own teammates on accident while rushed. Soft village read on Elandera and Alv for this?

 

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I do not like this. At all. It very much feels like an attempt to frame either myself or Alv when she dies and flips corrupt. This very much makes me want to vote on her, but as I said, I'll wait to make sure percentages are correct.

This is throwing me off a bit. I think you are a villager right now, but just kind of feels strange to me.

---

Honestly, I tempted to push for a Wilson lynch today. I think the elims were split C1 between Gaea and Joe. I really want to trust Drake, and we have been mindmelding a bit, but... Idk, I feel like something is off here. Looking at Drake, when i think of elim teams, he could fit in a team with most people...

Araris/Striker - Not W/W
Fifth/Striker - Not W/W

Edited August 6, 2019 by Furamirionind

[StrikerEZ]

29 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Let me stop you right there. She wasn't. She is evil.

1. There is a 75% chance she is evil, due to voting numbers.
2. She didn't claim to have bribed anyone, and even if she did, if she claimed to have Bribed Kidpen, one of her/Drake is evil. If she claimed to have Bribed Fifth, she is still probably evil, as there is no village reason (I can think of) to bribe him
3. We can confirm she was scanned as she has a ledger in her inventory.

While this can't technically make it 100% known she is evil, I'd give it a good 98.74% chance she is evil

I’ve got some time to respond since I’m super early for this delivery. 

I agree with everything you said. I came to all those conclusions on my own before I made my post. I was just trying to preemptively counter people who might come try to say that Lum was actually good and that I framed her. 

31 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Super insane theory: Striker and Lum are both evil, but Lum didn't have time for the game, so the elims bussed her.

Honestly, I kinda wished I was elim so we could’ve done that.

31 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Araris/Striker - Not W/W
Fifth/Striker - Not W/W

Are you saying those pairs of people can’t both be the same alignment, or that they can’t both be elims?

[Furamirionind]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

Are you saying those pairs of people can’t both be the same alignment, or that they can’t both be elims?

Cant both be elims.

Probably should have said "Not E/E" instead : )

[Fifth Scholar]

Hmm. So at the risk of sparking the same debate again, I’d like Gaea dead. If Lum was the one to bribe my vote away from Gaea and onto Wilson, that smells a bit like conspiracy to me, though I’d be willing to give any players other state are suspecting a look. Sorry if my analysis is less focused/detailed; there’s a reason I don’t join QFs that often and the pacing is one of them. 

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Super insane theory: Striker and Lum are both evil, but Lum didn't have time for the game, so the elims bussed her.

I'm actually kind of with you on this theory. They've seemed to be pointing fingers a lot at each other this game.

@StrikerEZ, is there a particular reason you decided to scan Lum right away with a one-time use item when there wasn't really suspicion on her to begin with? Your reaction seemed a bit much when the general consensus at the end of last turn was that Lum was, in fact, evil. The 75% chance to show correctly seems to have happened, so why would you feel the need to preempt any additional suspicion on yourself? Unless, of course, there's that chance you are also evil. 

If someone has a ledger, I wouldn't mind a scan on Striker, just to make sure. 

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

This is throwing me off a bit. I think you are a villager right now, but just kind of feels strange to me.

That response of mine was the moment I knew for sure that Lum was evil. A villager wouldn't have much reason in their final moments to clear a player and cast suspicion on another one, without also trying to defend themselves. Actually, Lum put up a lot less defense than usual when she's targeted for a lynch, which is another reason I suspect a possible planned bus.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

@StrikerEZ, is there a particular reason you decided to scan Lum right away with a one-time use item when there wasn't really suspicion on her to begin with? Your reaction seemed a bit much when the general consensus at the end of last turn was that Lum was, in fact, evil. The 75% chance to show correctly seems to have happened, so why would you feel the need to preempt any additional suspicion on yourself? Unless, of course, there's that chance you are also evil.

I actually already asked Striker this in our PM. As he is at work, I'll say what he told me. (I'll also tag @StrikerEZ to make certain I'm not putting words in his mouth)

But basically it's just that he picked someone semi-random. He has been interacting with Lum a lot on Discord (Yay for MTG!), and she was the most recent post when he submitted his action.

8 minutes ago, Elandera said:

That response of mine was the moment I knew for sure that Lum was evil. A villager wouldn't have much reason in their final moments to clear a player and cast suspicion on another one, without also trying to defend themselves. Actually, Lum put up a lot less defense than usual when she's targeted for a lynch, which is another reason I suspect a possible planned bus.

Wow, yeah. We are mindmelding a lot right now. lol.

[StrikerEZ]

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

If someone has a ledger, I wouldn't mind a scan on Striker, just to make sure. 

Someone did last cycle, actually. Obviously, I don’t know who, but I was scanned and I now have another ledger. 

Also, @Furamirionind was right in his representation of what I said in our PM. I was hoping that I could scan Lum as village so we could coordinate in PMs together, but obviously that didn’t happen. 

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Someone did last cycle, actually. Obviously, I don’t know who, but I was scanned and I now have another ledger. 

Also, @Furamirionind was right in his representation of what I said in our PM. I was hoping that I could scan Lum as village so we could coordinate in PMs together, but obviously that didn’t happen. 

That's reasonable. I still have a mild suspicion of you, but until we get a scan result, I don't think you're the best target for a lynch.

[Furamirionind]

14 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Someone did last cycle, actually. Obviously, I don’t know who, but I was scanned and I now have another ledger. 

Heh, smart. @Everybody_Playing_this_Game you can just reveal your results in-thread. The elims seem to not have a reliable way of killing players other than the lynch, and as you no longer have the Ledger, killing you makes no difference anyways. 

[StrikerEZ]

33 minutes ago, Elandera said:

That's reasonable. I still have a mild suspicion of you, but until we get a scan result, I don't think you're the best target for a lynch.

That’s fair. I’d suspect myself too at this point if I were in your suspicion. I do agree that I’m not the best target for a lynch though.

18 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Heh, smart. @Everybody_Playing_this_Game you can just reveal your results in-thread. The elims seem to not have a reliable way of killing players other than the lynch, and as you no longer have the Ledger, killing you makes no difference anyways. 

Are you being sarcastic? I do agree that it’s probably a good idea to reveal directly to the thread (my plan last cycle was a bit unnecessary convoluted, I’ll admit), but I just want to make sure before I assume I’m reading your post correctly. 

[Furamirionind]

6 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Are you being sarcastic? I do agree that it’s probably a good idea to reveal directly to the thread (my plan last cycle was a bit unnecessary convoluted, I’ll admit), but I just want to make sure before I assume I’m reading your post correctly. 

Um, no. I'm not being sarcastic. It was kind of a comment saying that no one has claimed results yet, and just saying to anyone online, if they scanned you, they don't need to wait for a PM chain. They can just post directly.

7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

That’s fair. I’d suspect myself too at this point if I were in your suspicion. I do agree that I’m not the best target for a lynch though.

To be fair, you are in her suspicion. : P

[StrikerEZ]

26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Um, no. I'm not being sarcastic. It was kind of a comment saying that no one has claimed results yet, and just saying to anyone online, if they scanned you, they don't need to wait for a PM chain. They can just post directly.

Okay, that’s what I thought. Just the heh, smart at the beginning sounded sarcastic in my head. XD

26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

To be fair, you are in her suspicion. : P

.....stupid autocorrect. 

If you can’t tell from context, the word Fura bolded should’ve said position. 

[DrakeMarshall]

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Niroinim did a double take, apparently he had misjudged some of the people in this room... "I mean, perhaps they do have their time and place..."
He looked over Sheev's shoulder to see an order for execution.
"Now Now, Sheev! We musn't resort to such violence! Then we would be no better than her! What we truly need, is to bring in the constabulary. We will throw her in prison, and interrogate her for additional info on her fellow traitors. There is no need for such drastic and medieval methods."

"Ah, my mistake," Sheev intoned. "It seems I misread the indictment laws, we are indeed voting on imprisonment, not execution. Perhaps I got carried away."

Sheev scratched out the word "execute" in neat handwriting and scribbled in the word "detain" before signing at the bottom with a flourish.

"What do you think of the new allomancy sanctions?" He said casually. "Surely confiscating vials brought into the council chambers is a bit excessive."

6 hours ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Moving to the center of the room Gaius cleared his throat and began talking, “Counclmen! Councilwoman! Lend me your ears! Now is not a time for weak leadership, the longer we wait to elect a new governor the less the people trust our judgment. If we do not root out the corruption they will have all of our heads! Therefore, I propose myself, Butt Ad Venture as our new governor. It is true that I am old, practically blind, and on the verge of death. But I have great wisdom! I propose myself not out of greed, but out of  necessity. My plan must be put to action if we are to avoid political death! It is true I am easily manipulated, but it’s as my father always said, ‘a puppet leader is better then no leader at all’” Wiping his eyes at the mention of his father Gaius continued. “As a close friend of the now arrested Joe, I promise that if I am elected the corrupt senators who seek for our ruination will be stopped.”

"Why, this is quite the window of opportunity for you, Gaius. Still, your proposal has it's merits. I'll support your cause, if I have the proper incentive to."

---

 

Hm. Well, I already sort of trusted Striker, but more so now.

I would have suspected Fifth for being bribed C1 as a way of eliminators consolidating wealth to buy something, except that Fifth is drawing attention to being bribed, which they probably wouldn't do if my theory was correct.

I was a wee bit suspicious of Fura but seeing their paranoia in action is assuaging some of my own.

As much as I really want accurate alignment flips, I'm a bit concerned by any push to be hasty about burning our last shot at guessing correctly, and therefore would prefer to wait one more cycle before lynching a constable.

Hael asking about when Striker reported the scan result is either a really insightful point by a villager or an attempt to cast doubt on Striker's scan result. If nobody else is suspicious of Hael than I will leave off that for a bit, however I think it could be a mistake.

In summary, I don't have a ton of leads.

 

I'm kind of with Striker though that I think one of the corrupt would have tried to bus Lum. That's pretty common when somebody gets scanned. The possible suspects are: Devotary, Ark/Sunshine, Rae.

I think elim!Ark's teammates would have cautioned against using the dagger C1, so its' between Devotary and Rae. I don't have very much to decide between the two of them, particularly because they offered rather similar justifications for voting on Lum, except that Rae's vote came in later.

[+Ed Venture]

1 minute ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

"Why, this is quite the window of opportunity for you, Gaius. Still, your proposal has it's merits. I'll support your cause, if I have the proper incentive to."

How did I not see that!  

"Ah! Senator...senator... *thinking noises* ..Sheev! My friend!" Walking over to Sheev he says, "Now I know what you are thinking, 'Why would I vote for an overly trusting, inexperienced..'" Wrapping his arm over Sheev's shoulders he quickly whispers, "..easily bribe-able.." Coughing to cover up the whisper he finishes, "..and to be honest, nearly dead man?" Moving back to the center of the room, after giving Senator Sheev an informational pamphlet on the importance of windows in the Senate building of course, he announces "I am not politically savvy, true. But I have something that no one else here has...honesty. No I don't mean to offend any of you fine gentlemen and gentlewoman, but...some people here could better be compared to broken glass. Sharp, unhelpful, broken. My lack of skill makes me the perfect leader in this time of turmoil, I have no idea what to do! So a fresh perspective of the people is what I can offer. And that perspective will get the corrupt senators locked up where they belong." 

[Furamirionind]

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I was a wee bit suspicious of Fura but seeing their paranoia in action is assuaging some of my own.

0.0

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

As much as I really want accurate alignment flips, I'm a bit concerned by any push to be hasty about burning our last shot at guessing correctly, and therefore would prefer to wait one more cycle before lynching a constable.

I think today we should be lynching a GM, however, I am extremely busy today, and don't have time to drive meaningful discussion on the topic. And the time I will have to do analysis and such, will be on my phone so... If we aren't certain on which GM, we can lynch a player today, I just think it's not preferable.

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Hael asking about when Striker reported the scan result is either a really insightful point by a villager or an attempt to cast doubt on Striker's scan result. If nobody else is suspicious of Hael than I will leave off that for a bit, however I think it could be a mistake.

I haven't looked enough into Hael. I'm getting a village vibe, but I would currently put him in the neutral category in my reads.

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I'm kind of with Striker though that I think one of the corrupt would have tried to bus Lum. That's pretty common when somebody gets scanned. The possible suspects are: Devotary, Ark/Sunshine, Rae.

I'd like to hear more from Rae, as her name keeps coming up in every discussion. But I would first see if anyone voting on Lum also voted on Joe. If so, look at them first. (I can't remember where/if Rae voted C1)

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I think elim!Ark's teammates would have cautioned against using the dagger C1, so its' between Devotary and Rae. I don't have very much to decide between the two of them, particularly because they offered rather similar justifications for voting on Lum, except that Rae's vote came in later.

I would not eliminate Ark so quickly. Most players in this community like quick and constant death. I can totally see an elim team using a dagger C1 to see, at the very least, how the village reacts.

---

Spoiler

 

Ninoirim walked up to Sheev just as the old man approached him.

24 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

"Ah! Senator...senator... *thinking noises* 

"Pff, surely even you know this man is an elected official," Ninoirim scoffed, " and not Senator Senator, the man who everyone confuses as a senator?" ( @Shqueeves )

24 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

..Sheev! My friend!" Walking over to Sheev he says, "Now I know what you are thinking, 'Why would I vote for an overly trusting, inexperienced..'" Wrapping his arm over Sheev's shoulders he quickly whispers, "..easily bribe-able.." Coughing to cover up the whisper he finishes, "..and to be honest, nearly dead man?" Moving back to the center of the room, after giving Senator Sheev an informational pamphlet on the importance of windows in the Senate building of course, he announces "I am not politically savvy, true. But I have something that no one else here has...honesty. No I don't mean to offend any of you fine gentlemen and gentlewoman, but...some people here could better be compared to broken glass. Sharp, unhelpful, broken. My lack of skill makes me the perfect leader in this time of turmoil, I have no idea what to do! So a fresh perspective of the people is what I can offer. And that perspective will get the corrupt senators locked up where they belong." 

Ninoirim listened to this rather audible whisper with distaste. At least when he tried to manipulate or bribe people, he had the decency to do it in private. And he never accepted bribes from others, as they made him look bad. He didn't need the money anyways.

"Here is the thing," Ninoirim said rather loudly, "if you are close to death, and we elect you, the stress will surely kill you. You are no politician, and therefore seem to not realize the full amount of stress this situation and job provides!"
Gaius started walking away, Ninoirim wasn't even sure is the old man heard him! Ugh!

Ninoirim chased after Gaius, grabbed his arm, and pulled him into a corner. "What would you say to a contract? What if I contract you to redo the windows in this building? I could only do that however, if I am elected governor... I'll give you a few minutes to think on it."

For these minutes, Ninoirim walked back over to Sheev to discuss his complaint.

53 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

"What do you think of the new allomancy sanctions?" He said casually. "Surely confiscating vials brought into the council chambers is a bit excessive."

"Absolutely not!", Ninoirim exclaimed, "I co-wrote those sanctions as it is important for all of our safety! Imagine what a corrupt senator could do if they also were a mistborn? All of the most powerful people in the world, trapped in one room. That person could kill all of us easily, and then could take control as emergency governor. Creating laws limiting the people that are allowed to become senators in the future. What a horrible future that would be, both for all of us, being dead, as well as the Scadrial populace."

He took a breath and looked Sheev up and down.

"You will find," Ninoirim continued, "also in those sanctions, they require a Leecher attend every conference we have. I have also provided one myself for today's... unfortunate occasion..."

 

 

Edited August 6, 2019 by Furamirionind
spoilering RP as my post is way too long

[Bugsy]

Hello, all! I promised a readthrough of the thread last night, and I'm following through now. It's long, though, so be warned. I'm spoilering it to prevent thread bloat. 

Spoiler

  

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Why hello there. If I had to guess, Altea Meza poisoned the wine. Could be the corrupt constable, but if we killed her, well, there'd be no more items, right? I'm sure we'd surprise Joe if we Day 1'd the black market -Hael

Honestly, this might be for the best. Elims can only kill with daggers, and I'm not entirely on board with keeping a system around that lets them get more.

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He's the finest there is, I say, bold as brass - not a Soother, but has the skills of one if you leave him in a room with someone for long enough. The only decent candidate, I say. -Bard

Feels like there's more to this than just an offhanded quip, but I might be reading into it too much.

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 I like my PMs, and I’m pretty sure all of us want to keep the black market around. -Striker

I'm... not sure how that's become conventional wisdom already, especially considering it's the main way for corrupt Senators to get more kills, but you do you  

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It's be a *very* long time since El and I played the same game, and it's been rare that we've had an opportunity to work together. I trust her to be a sensible Governor, and she'll do a better job than I. -Hael

I rather agree with this assessment. Better someone reasonable be made governor than someone who's not - it would allow us to hold them accountable, since if they use it in an illogical / improper way, they're clearly deserving of suspicion 

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The 5% is nominal. 1 out of 20 times this person dies, are they falsely revealed. Therefore, unless we have specific reason to think otherwise, we should assume the lynch results are correct.

I think people with daggers should claim. That will give us an idea of how many are out there, and info on who can kill people. That will help narrow down any kills made tonight. -Fura

Fura, this post alone is enough to make me immediately suspicious of you

The first paragraph is sowing disinformation. If that was accidental, it would be neutral. If it's deliberate, it's a strong elim indicator. Taken together, that statement has quite an elim lean in my opinion. As for the second, people with daggers should most certainly not claim. The Corrupt Senators likely won't, so they'll just know who to target to get more weapons for their own use. 

You're my first suspicion of the game.

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So, like Bard said, we either need basically everyone to vote on whoever we want to lynch (very unlikely) or we need to keep as few people as possible voting on a person. Which means our lynch targets should only get two votes. -Striker

Ehhh. Vote manipulation is a very real concern.    

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This is true, and targeting the Constabulary with our first few lynches is probably a good idea; without the ability to correctly discern alignment, this game will become an absolute headache. However, I believe Constable General Altea (Gaea) to be evil, rather than Joe or Wilson. The idea here is that the hardest decisions require the strongest wills, and ultimately shutting down the black market, while being a hefty price to pay, is a price higher than losing free PMs or having a random Survivor role floating around
    
As for Governor, I vote no leader. I’d prefer giving this to someone scanned with a ledger, and the Elims can’t hammer this vote if we don’t let them, so we might as well wait to hand it out. Also, I’d be less willing to trust those putting themselves up for it—at best, it’s a bid for glory, and at worst, they’re seeking control of the lynch in the later game. Three votes is a lot, and giving it to anybody D1 seems reckless and potentially deadly. -Fifth

 

I agree with your first paragraph, not so much with your second. Although, I wonder, could we free a constable with the Survivor role? If we could, we could potentially kill all 3 without having any be corrupt. 

Village lean on you.     

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Lynching the constable general right away might not be a bad idea, as a way to keep elims from using that mechanic to return a player of theirs from the jail. -Elandera

 

Ehh. If that happens, we just threaten the player with a lynch / kill unless they out their teammates. The Survivor is no longer village and just wants to live - by guaranteeing them protection if only they sell out their team, but promising to kill them otherwise, we create a liability for the elim team.    

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I could go for this.  It gives us the best odds at finding the corrupt constable, removes the need to waste another lynch should we get it wrong the first time and, more importantly, allows the Gods of Luck and Chance to have the final say, which is always a good idea. -Alv

 

Right, this is in character for Alv. Village lean

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I feel like it would benefit the elims more if PM's were closed (which would prevent village cooperation, pooling of resources, etc), so I'm a bit reluctant to lynch Wilson. It could definitely be the case that Wilson is corrupt and the fact that lynching her closes PM's is meant to dissuade us from doing that. If there's any constable I would suggest lynching today, it would... probably be Joe? Lynching Gaea today would be a waste of her ability, since there's no one in jail right now. Although not being able to buy items would not be fun, I think it's a better alternative than losing PM's. -Lum

Lum doesn't seem like the type to go all-in on something like this when she's an eliminator, which means in her ranking of who we should lynch (Joe > Gaea > Wilson), I rather doubt she'd put the corrupt constable at the bottom. Which reinforces my belief that it's Gaea. 

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Fura. The eliminators almost definitely would not claim, and if they had any search warrants they could steal and use as many daggers as they had warrants for with impunity. Let’s definitely not. -El

Much more concise than what I said, but very much agreed

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I mean, that’s a bit of a contested subject. PMs are universally good for villagers if confirmed villagers are a possibility, but otherwise they’re arguably just as good for elims if said elims are good at manipulation -El

There is potential for confirmed good villagers in this game, so PMs would likely be more beneficial than not. Still, I agree that they're not the hugely important thing many are making them out to be.

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As the aide to Senator Onde, it is my opinion that Constable-General Yosef Busshu be brought in for questioning, as he was there at the time of the murder. -Rae

Hmm. For most people, it would be out of character to coach a vote in RP with little to no explanation, but it's not excessively so in this case. Still, Elim lean. 

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Joe lynch, to me, was suspicious as heck, and I’m in agreement with Drake that it was far too easy—however, I don’t clear Drake for pointing this out, as he could easily be corrupt and trying to come out on the right side of history. -Fifth

I certainly don't clear him either, but I definitely have a village lean - there was enough activity after what he said that I think we can presume he as an Elim wouldn't have thought the Joe lynch was secure. Also, both Kidpen and Rae (plus Alv, but I think he's village) voted on Joe after that time; my gut tells me at least one of them is Elim, and if the Elims felt the need to strengthen the vote last minute it's doubtful one of their number would have weakened it by voting on Gaea.

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Elim!Snip pulling off a mislynch like this would almost certainly result in getting himself lynched. -Striker

I disagree. This is where the corrupt constable becomes super important for the Elims - the uncertainty of it means Snip could very well confuse or obfuscate and pull it off correctly.

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Everyone is saying that it will also mean no more Daggers but that is not true at all.  I know of two ways to keep Daggers in the elims hands without the Market and that's just what I've worked out so far.  I'm not going to reveal them as this post alone will give them far more ideas than I wanted them to have as it is. -Alv
 

I see similar strategies, but all rely on either items that are in limited supply or information reveals that the village can exploit. I quite strongly disagree with your conclusion as to the value of the black market. 

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The elims would have to be very careful with their bribes if there's only a couple of votes.  It wouldn't take much to spot a pattern. -Alv

It wouldn't take much to produce a pattern, either - between the statistical noise from villagers making bribes and the intentional attempts at misdirection, the Elims could fairly easily make such analysis useless given we have no way of seeing who made the bribes. 

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As long as we are careful, we can spot the elims if they use bribes to save another.  If we have four votes on someone and they flip elim then we can be fairly sure it's true -Alv

These two statements sort of show the errors in each other. If we keep our votes to 4, elims can save each other and even save villagers to drive mislynches. And what's to stop a villager from saving themselves?    

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Alright now, Striker, please tell me why you decided to frame me.

Was it because you regretted your posts and knew suspicion was going to come onto you? -Lum

 

Alright, this seems super forced. I'm guessing this is distancing, in all honesty.    

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Okay, so, I guess I may as well admit it. I scanned Lum D1 with my ledger. I decided to PM Devotary because I had no read on her, and I figured village!Devotary would keep the chain going and elim!Devotary would just kill me and say I was obviously framing Lum when I eventually claimed in thread if the chain never went anywhere. 

 

...huh. Looks like I was probably wrong? If Striker is who started the chain, I doubt he'd be on the same team as Lum. Bussing a teammate this early seems unlikely.     

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We also had two separate vote manipulations last cycle, so forgive me if I err towards piling the votes rather than keeping them low. We don't get confirmations of alignments on living players, either. -Rae

 

Heh, this is quite cleverly phrased
(I'm still suspicious of you, though)     

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Super insane theory: Striker and Lum are both evil, but Lum didn't have time for the game, so the elims bussed her. -Fura

 

I mean, that could be. I honestly wouldn't be surprised

TL;DR: Somewhat suspicious of Gaea, Rae, and Fura, conflicted about Striker, village lean on Alv, Drake, and Fifth.

And lastly, a note about Snip and the dagger: there's every possibility that the Elims just gave it to him in the hopes of stealing it back next turn - using it on Burnt would tell them precisely where it was, so they could potentially use it again (after sowing suspicion of Snip and Ark as well)

[StrikerEZ]

23 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

As much as I really want accurate alignment flips, I'm a bit concerned by any push to be hasty about burning our last shot at guessing correctly, and therefore would prefer to wait one more cycle before lynching a constable.

I do agree that we shouldn’t rush into lynching a constable. At this point, I wouldn’t mind lynching either of the Constables though.

25 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

Hael asking about when Striker reported the scan result is either a really insightful point by a villager or an attempt to cast doubt on Striker's scan result. If nobody else is suspicious of Hael than I will leave off that for a bit, however I think it could be a mistake.

I hadn’t even thought of Hael’s post that way. I think it’s more likely he was an insightful villager, but it might be worth it to think about lynching him later if we can’t get any leads. 

49 minutes ago, DrakeMarshmallow said:

I'm kind of with Striker though that I think one of the corrupt would have tried to bus Lum. That's pretty common when somebody gets scanned. The possible suspects are: Devotary, Ark/Sunshine, Rae.

I think elim!Ark's teammates would have cautioned against using the dagger C1, so its' between Devotary and Rae. I don't have very much to decide between the two of them, particularly because they offered rather similar justifications for voting on Lum, except that Rae's vote came in later.

With a lack of any better leads, and since I trust Devotary since she passed the PM chain message on yesterday, Rae. @Arraenae

[Fifth Scholar]

My question to those advocating that we wait to lynch the second Constable: why? We’re only going to start losing voices and opinions as the game progresses, so getting more input now, while there’s still a reasonable bias towards villagers, would be quite helpful; further, regardless of whether or not we catch the corrupt constable, we will get good reads on the Elims at the very least, as they’ll be obliged to push the lynch towards the incorrect constable while at the same time distancing themselves from a poor outcome. 

[+Ed Venture]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Ninoirim chased after Gaius, grabbed his arm, and pulled him into a corner. "What would you say to a contract? What if I contract you to redo the windows in this building? I could only do that however, if I am elected governor... I'll give you a few minutes to think on it."

"Senator Ninorim, am I right?" Smiling Gaius continued, "Imagine the headlines if the broadsheets said that you assaulted an old man just to become Governor. My, my...if something like that was to get out your reputation would be...dare I say...ruined!" Strolling back into the main room he said, "Now I want that to happen just as much as you do, so perhaps we can both win, if you support me in my bid to become governor then you can keep your pristine reputation and I will become governor! Everyone wins, except the nasty corrupts"

The fool thinks that because I'm old and not a nobleman I can be pushed around like that...Harmony. I'll show him who can be the better Governor!

[StrikerEZ]

@Fifth Scholar I wouldn’t be opposed to lynching a Constable this turn. We don’t really have any leads to go off of anyways. My main concern with that is I don’t think we could get a large enough consensus of people to agree to vote on one Constable, and then leave votes off the other one/other players. 

[Fifth Scholar]

15 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Fifth Scholar I wouldn’t be opposed to lynching a Constable this turn. We don’t really have any leads to go off of anyways. My main concern with that is I don’t think we could get a large enough consensus of people to agree to vote on one Constable, and then leave votes off the other one/other players. 

What do you mean by this? We’ll always get an accurate lynch result on a Constable, so the lynch can be as close as it needs to. 

[DrakeMarshall]

50 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

"No I don't mean to offend any of you fine gentlemen and gentlewoman, but...some people here could better be compared to broken glass. Sharp, unhelpful, broken."

"Or a broken sword. Sharp as hell, but lacking a point." 

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"My lack of skill makes me the perfect leader in this time of turmoil, I have no idea what to do! So a fresh perspective of the people is what I can offer. And that perspective will get the corrupt senators locked up where they belong."

"A window of insight into the will of the commoners?" Sheev said drily. "Perhaps."

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For these minutes, Ninoirim walked back over to Sheev to discuss his complaint.

"Absolutely not!", Ninoirim exclaimed, "I co-wrote those sanctions as it is important for all of our safety! Imagine what a corrupt senator could do if they also were a mistborn? All of the most powerful people in the world, trapped in one room. That person could kill all of us easily, and then could take control as emergency governor. Creating laws limiting the people that are allowed to become senators in the future. What a horrible future that would be, both for all of us, being dead, as well as the Scadrial populace."

He took a breath and looked Sheev up and down.

"You will find," Ninoirim continued, "also in those sanctions, they require a Leecher attend every conference we have. I have also provided one myself for today's... unfortunate occasion..."

"Perhaps. It is hard to say what kind of resources the corrupted might be able to field. But perhaps a soother of more noble intentions could make the difference in the political arena," Sheev commented, toying with the brass nob on the head of his cane.

"I wasn't aware you had a leecher in your service. A good leecher is one of the better investments a senator can make."

 

32 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'd like to hear more from Rae, as her name keeps coming up in every discussion. But I would first see if anyone voting on Lum also voted on Joe. If so, look at them first. (I can't remember where/if Rae voted C1)

I would not eliminate Ark so quickly. Most players in this community like quick and constant death. I can totally see an elim team using a dagger C1 to see, at the very least, how the village reacts.

Rae voted for Joe, I'm pretty sure. That's part of why I brough Rae up as a minor suspicion last cycle.

It is possible that I am incorrect to eliminate Ark. I would not be as hasty to use a dagger were I an eliminator, but then again, I also would not use a dagger on the first cycle as a villager, so maybe this doesn't indicate anything about alignment.

20 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My question to those advocating that we wait to lynch the second Constable: why? We’re only going to start losing voices and opinions as the game progresses, so getting more input now, while there’s still a reasonable bias towards villagers, would be quite helpful; further, regardless of whether or not we catch the corrupt constable, we will get good reads on the Elims at the very least, as they’ll be obliged to push the lynch towards the incorrect constable while at the same time distancing themselves from a poor outcome. 

Paranoia is why, for me.

I'm inclined to trust you specifically, but I am also sensing a big enough push to rush into lynching another constable that my hackles are up.

In the absence of another major lead like a scan result, I would probably support lynching Gaea next cycle. But I can't shake the feeling that something doesn't add up.

Edited August 6, 2019 by DrakeMarshmallow