Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[StrikerEZ]

10 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Last time Striker voted for me D1, he was evil. Inquisitor confirmed.

Ya'll are welcome

I mean, if I were the Inquisitor, that'd be a ballsy move.

Plus, last game I didn't really have a very good reason to lynch you D1. At least this time I feel like I have a pretty good reason to lynch you this time around. If you are the Inquisitor, then this game ends very quickly (or your convert manages to survive till the end because you pick someone so obvious there's no way you picked them ). If you aren't the Inquisitor, then we gain some information about the role distribution and we can analyze people's reactions to your posts today and your death.

[Fifth Scholar]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

So you'd prefer a no lynch today, then? In that scenario there's a very high chance the Inquisitor will kill me tonight for the guaranteed conversion N2 (not to mention the fact I've let them know I have an elim-ideal role). I'd rather get my death out of the way now, so that way D2 isn't just another no-lynch (or worse, that a better role dies).

That’s a fundamental misinterpretation of my post; I believe in pursuing the Inquisitor, and not Mistings, as conversation about the latter will be useless when we go back to analyse later, and it’s discussion surrounding the former which will draw Elims out of the woodwork anyway. But I certainly support a lynch. Depending on how many Unsnapped and Vanilla are in the game, there may be a decent chance of hitting a Misting by complete accident when lynching for the Inquisitor, but I feel like you’re essentially announcing to the Inquisitor that it’s in the village’s interests for him to convert; while I don’t necessarily disagree with you, unless you’re going for some weird reverse-pyschology angle, your comments are only less likely to support the result you desire. 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Fundamentally, I don't really like the idea of killing the Inquisitor before they can use all their conversions. These games are significantly more fun when they're close.

I do. I don’t intend to throw this game for the first few cycles, and not hunting for the largest threat currently extant would, in my view, constitute exactly that. Such a strategy would essentially be allowing the Spiked three cycles of free shots at villagers, which I’m not willing to countenance. Besides, even if the Elims did only get one or two conversions off because of finding an Eliminator early, it would still be a fairly exciting hunt. 

43 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I hope I am not wrong, I...constantly trust the wrong people. 

Same!  

50 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I suppose the best actual reason I would have to suspect someone would be the ones thinking to delay the game instead of speeding it along like Aman is trying to do. To that end, I suppose I will put my vote on Fifth. I will be back before the cycle ends to change my vote if necessary. 

As I said before, I have no intention of delaying the game, but would instead like to create the kind of analysable content that drives it. What I do not advocate is sitting still and playing into the Inquisitor’s hands, and actively working towards conditions which allow him to convert seems to me to be counterintuitive. I’d rather look for the Inquisitor himself. 

46 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Ah. I may have misworded something earlier, or given the wrong impression. I am not advocating we wait for the Inquisitor to use all their conversions. I just would like the game to have a team of 3 before I start getting heavy into analysis, since anything less is very difficult to catch. Especially when the Inquisitor gets to pick their own team.

Just because it’s difficult to catch doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try; while Doc has said that you’re trying to push the game forward, and I suppose I understand the desire for a fun game, to me, an Inquisitor would have less fun if the village sat on their hands and allowed him to get a head start. Our only advantage in this game is the one we hold right now—namely, our overwhelming numbers. The Elims only get more powerful over time, and we get weaker, so we should actively be looking to hit the Elims at their lowest, and when we are the strongest, even if a miss ends up hitting ourselves. Anything less just lets the Elims seize the initiative.

49 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

OK, it seems pretty certain that Aman is village, and I'm fine with a Misting being killed today. But I feel that's different to not even trying to search for the Inquisitor today, which Aman seems to be trying to push for. Just searching for a Misting and nothing else stifles conversation, and a strategy we can use to find the Converts later is watching to see if their opinions change visibly in thread between this cycle and future cycles. That's part of why I voted on Lum - I doubted they were going to get lynched today but I figured if I floated them as a lynch candidate then at least it would give us a data point to analyse on later.

I agree wholeheartedly, and for pointing this out Bard and Devotary earn the status of likely-not-Inquisitor as were this a standard village-elim game I would read both posts as village. 

11 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I personally think lynching the Inquisitor today would be the worst possible scenario, since it means the game would be over by D3 (if we have a kill role) or N3 (if we don't). My idea with this gambit was that it would put an interesting spin on the discussion as opposed to stifling it. For example, Striker's first post was venturing toward the lynch/no-lynch debate, which is generally considered unproductive. I also find poke votes (or stab votes) to rarely turn up anything useful.

Ultimately I prefer to be preemptive rather than reactive. It's always better to keep your enemies on the back foot. Push hard enough and eventually they'll stumble.

Again, I admire the sentiment but disagree with the approach. First, even if it means a short game, I’d like to kill the Inquisitor today if possible; it would still let them convert, most likely, and would put us on very good footing for later in the game without ending it. I don’t believe your approach is preemptive; to me, you seem to want to idle and allow the Eliminators to establish themselves in a manner of their choosing, while I would rather create the atmosphere of pressure which serious lynch discussion invites, and is one of the only ways to, as you put it, keep the Eliminators on the back foot. 

16 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

Likewise, villagers need to make their own decisions. I can see Fifth being Village, even though I disagree with his stance on forcing a night kill. Seeing who stands where on this subject is great information and so far I think it's gotten quite a bit of content out of players that will make for good analysis. Each post is a data point, to use Bard's terminology.

I don’t want to force a night kill, but I’d rather not force a conversion either, which seems to be what you advocate; rather, an informed lynch should be forced, and the victim thereof will determine the course of action during the Night.

[Amanuensis]

46 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, if I were the Inquisitor, that'd be a ballsy move.

Plus, last game I didn't really have a very good reason to lynch you D1. At least this time I feel like I have a pretty good reason to lynch you this time around. If you are the Inquisitor, then this game ends very quickly (or your convert manages to survive till the end because you pick someone so obvious there's no way you picked them ). If you aren't the Inquisitor, then we gain some information about the role distribution and we can analyze people's reactions to your posts today and your death.

I wouldn't be voting for myself if I didn't think my death was 100% the best play rn

43 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

That’s a fundamental misinterpretation of my post; I believe in pursuing the Inquisitor, and not Mistings, as conversation about the latter will be useless when we go back to analyse later, and it’s discussion surrounding the former which will draw Elims out of the woodwork anyway. But I certainly support a lynch. Depending on how many Unsnapped and Vanilla are in the game, there may be a decent chance of hitting a Misting by complete accident when lynching for the Inquisitor, but I feel like you’re essentially announcing to the Inquisitor that it’s in the village’s interests for him to convert; while I don’t necessarily disagree with you, unless you’re going for some weird reverse-pyschology angle, your comments are only less likely to support the result you desire. 

I do. I don’t intend to throw this game for the first few cycles, and not hunting for the largest threat currently extant would, in my view, constitute exactly that. Such a strategy would essentially be allowing the Spiked three cycles of free shots at villagers, which I’m not willing to countenance. Besides, even if the Elims did only get one or two conversions off because of finding an Eliminator early, it would still be a fairly exciting hunt. 

Same!  

As I said before, I have no intention of delaying the game, but would instead like to create the kind of analysable content that drives it. What I do not advocate is sitting still and playing into the Inquisitor’s hands, and actively working towards conditions which allow him to convert seems to me to be counterintuitive. I’d rather look for the Inquisitor himself. 

Just because it’s difficult to catch doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try; while Doc has said that you’re trying to push the game forward, and I suppose I understand the desire for a fun game, to me, an Inquisitor would have less fun if the village sat on their hands and allowed him to get a head start. Our only advantage in this game is the one we hold right now—namely, our overwhelming numbers. The Elims only get more powerful over time, and we get weaker, so we should actively be looking to hit the Elims at their lowest, and when we are the strongest, even if a miss ends up hitting ourselves. Anything less just lets the Elims seize the initiative.

I agree wholeheartedly, and for pointing this out Bard and Devotary earn the status of likely-not-Inquisitor as were this a standard village-elim game I would read both posts as village. 

Again, I admire the sentiment but disagree with the approach. First, even if it means a short game, I’d like to kill the Inquisitor today if possible; it would still let them convert, most likely, and would put us on very good footing for later in the game without ending it. I don’t believe your approach is preemptive; to me, you seem to want to idle and allow the Eliminators to establish themselves in a manner of their choosing, while I would rather create the atmosphere of pressure which serious lynch discussion invites, and is one of the only ways to, as you put it, keep the Eliminators on the back foot. 

I don’t want to force a night kill, but I’d rather not force a conversion either, which seems to be what you advocate; rather, an informed lynch should be forced, and the victim thereof will determine the course of action during the Night.

If it's a misinterpretation, it wasn't intentional. I asked that because I was trying to understand your thought processes. After reading this post, I see the general reason why we can't see eye to eye. Ignoring the statistical improbability of correctly lynching the Inquisitor today, in the event that we succeed, they would need to kill me tonight, not get NK'd,  and survive a second lynch (not guaranteed they have UberPewter), all to get a single conversion off before biting the dust. By N3 the only casualties would be the Inquisitor and myself, leaving 15 Villagers versus a single Convert. Nothing about that sounds fun to me from any perspective. Several villagers will get bored or discouraged by lynching the wrong people. There will be next-to-no information in thread to analyze since the Inquisitor and his Convert wouldn't get much time to interact with one another. Even if if they did, it would likely be deliberately crafted to mislead the Village. The Convert may very well get stressed out from the pressure of carrying everything on their shoulders. And really, we just have a really long game of find-the-needle-in-the-hay-stack. All opposed to the opposite:

I die, Inquisitor converts tonight, real game can begin with ordinary lynch tactics tomorrow. If the Inquisitor is found then, then there will be 2 or 3 converts left before he bites the dust. That's really the best case scenario for everyone, not just the village.

Also, I've at no point tried finding Mistings or even suggest that we try to in thread. Up until this point, my votes have explicitly geared toward increasing activity. Besides, I offered my life for a reason. I cannot in good-faith deliberately kill another villager to preserve myself. If I lynch someone, they're either inactive or I believe they're evil. No one else should be forced to miss out on a game just so I don't.

I'm not sure how my sacrifice = giving the Spiked 3 free shots at villagers. They only get the one and the game proceeds as normal.

I don't think 17 blind villagers stumbling around in search of a single eliminator = analyzable content. From my perspective that's more likely to end badly than any alternative. I also don't think describing my strategy as "sitting on hands" is accurate, either.

I also don't agree with "they get stronger as we get weaker." Although no one's been converted yet, I'm still measuring this game as 3 v 15 or 4 v 14. Conversions are both an inevitability and more-or-less the whole point of the game. Not to mention there's a hard limit that when reached, doesn't mean the village is at a disadvantage. In fact we are at a disadvantage the longer all the conversions go unused, since it forces players to have to reevaluate everything. There's only so many hours in a day. The sooner things begin, the sooner we can act decisively.

I'm sure we could find the Inquisitor today if we really wanted to and enough of us put in the effort. But since I believe that causes the most problems overall, I'm not willing to go that route.

  Hide contents

1. Haelbarde: [1]
2. Burnt Spaghetti: [1]
3. Snipexe: [4]
4. StrikerEZ: [3]
5. Araris Valerian: [2]
6. Lumgol: [1]
7. RayOfSunshine: [0]
8. shanerockes: [2]
9. Doc12: [2]
10. Randuir: [5]
11. Amanuensis: [17]
12. BrightnessRadiant: [5]
13. Fifth Scholar: [5]
14. Devotary of Spontaneity: [2]
15. Rathmaskal: [1]
16. Young Bard: [3]
17. Sart: [1]
18. STINK: [2]

Edited July 29, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Burnt Spaghetti]

So... What happens if the inquisitor is a troll and we kill aman and then they decide to not convert and stay independent just to spite us and our strategies?

[Amanuensis]

2 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

So... What happens if the inquisitor is a troll and we kill aman and then they decide to not convert and stay independent just to spite us and our strategies?

A distinct possibility and one I would be very sad about. However, it would very likely narrow down their identity, since only a handful of players would be willing to do something like that.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Ah. I may have misworded something earlier, or given the wrong impression. I am not advocating we wait for the Inquisitor to use all their conversions. I just would like the game to have a team of 3 before I start getting heavy into analysis, since anything less is very difficult to catch. Especially when the Inquisitor gets to pick their own team.

That would be where you said you didn't want to kill the Inquisitor before they used up all their conversions. At the very least, we want to force the Inquisitor to seriously consider wasting multiple lives out of fear that withholding a conversion means it won't go off if they're suddenly lynched or attacked. We can still lose even if only two conversions happen as LG51 proved, and LG54 indicated that by the time the converter makes a full team, the game can be almost lost.

56 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Again, I admire the sentiment but disagree with the approach. First, even if it means a short game, I’d like to kill the Inquisitor today if possible; it would still let them convert, most likely, and would put us on very good footing for later in the game without ending it. I don’t believe your approach is preemptive; to me, you seem to want to idle and allow the Eliminators to establish themselves in a manner of their choosing, while I would rather create the atmosphere of pressure which serious lynch discussion invites, and is one of the only ways to, as you put it, keep the Eliminators on the back foot. 

It's entirely possible that lynching the Inquisitor today wouldn't give them an opportunity to convert. All it would take is a Lurcher to protect Aman, and suddenly the Inquisitor has to make a blind guess and happen to hit a misting with the night kill. If a misting isn't night-killed, the Inquisitor doesn't have anyone to convert with and the game ends C2 after a lynch and a potentially necessary N2 coinshot kill. If the Inquisitor does manage to convert someone, we'll spend the rest of the game trying to kill what is essentially a serial killer with no ties to anyone else. Once a misting dies, any and all attempts to kill the Inquisitor are fair game. If they choose not to use the dead misting and end up dying without a convert that's their problem. If they die with one convert who was around before the Inquisitor lost a life, we'll at least have something to go on.

[Rathmaskal]

27 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

A distinct possibility and one I would be very sad about. However, it would very likely narrow down their identity, since only a handful of players would be willing to do something like that.

Until this post.  (Btw, I've been skimming through the thread, but haven't had time to do a full analysis.  I'll try to remedy that tomorrow morning.)

[Haelbarde]

On 7/28/2019 at 9:57 AM, Sart said:

Question for the GM: If a Misting is converted, and gains the role of the lynched Misting, do they lose their original role?

@Sart, what had made you wonder about this? Sart

---

While I think it could be nice to get an early Inquisitor conversion to get the game moving along, this is the only cycle I'd care to actually do anything to help that, and definitely wouldn't want to be waiting for them to get all their conversions off. Regardless of what we do, it's be a good discussion to have had though.

I feel reticent to lynch Aman day 1 - village/spiked/future convert, I feel like I'd prefer to keep his level of activity alive for at least the next cycle or two. Fifth, Brightness, Rand, and maybe Devotary I'd also put in a similar position. Obviously, if any are exhibiting suspicious behaviour, lynch away, but I've not seen anything that I'd call suspicious from them yet.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Haelbarde

[DeTess]

8 hours ago, Doc12 said:

I also hate choosing someone to die, but it would be more palatable if someone like RayofSunshine died, who has not said anything, instead of Aman with his 14 posts. Then again, I think Ray is a new player and it would be cruel to kill someone before they've even shown up.

They are not. They've played a number of games under the names ax's boyfriend and ark.

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so, I don't have much time to post, but I'd just like to say that I think it'd be amazing if Aman was pulling off the greatest gambit of all time (I think he could do it, too), but I'm pretty sure he's being honest in his earnestness to try and win this game for the village. Even if I disagree with his method. Just in case though, I'll be voting on Aman. I'm gonna call his bluff.

Tssk, you should reread the first 2 cycles of LG32. Aman made a grandiose challenge against the inquisitor... and promptly got killed off by a village coinshot for his troubles Now that's a way of calling someone's bluff!

Anyway, back to the game itself. I actually thought Aman might have been a tin-eye,as that's another role that's very easy to prove. More importantly, I wouldn't expect any of the possible inquisitor spikes to give them an anonymous message power, but I'm not 100% certain he wouldn't have some form of emotional allomancy spike that could be used to emulate being a soother.

I definitely understand Aman's arguments for making the game more interesting, but they are NAI. Likewise, I can see where fifth is coming from with his arguments against it, but I'd say its likewise NAI from him. It could be fifth being a worried villager, or the inquisitor trying to appear very villager. Either way, I'm against lynching  Aman until C3 at the earliest because he talks a lot, giving us stuff to look at if he flips evil, and he generally encourages participation by other people with pointed questions which is very useful for the village.

I would like to go on record here that Fifth is giving me a bit of a bad gut feeling. I think it's coming from the way he seemed to overemphasize him checking aspects of the inquisitors powers with Straw, but I don't know, and I don't generally act on gut feelings.

I'm going to vote on Rayofsunshine @RayOfSunshine. They are active on the Shard, just not in this thread so I'm having trouble seeing why they haven't checked in so far.

[Straw]

11 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

It doesn't appear to have been specified in the rules. Straw, are conversions limited to the night phase?

Yes.

[Amanuensis]

49 minutes ago, Straw said:

Yes.

Thank you very much, Straw.

10 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Until this post.  (Btw, I've been skimming through the thread, but haven't had time to do a full analysis.  I'll try to remedy that tomorrow morning.)

While taking the free lynch and letting it go to waste isn't an inherently bad idea, I think strategically it's counterproductive (as Devotary pointed out, from then on the Spiked will be able to kill and convert at once + use other abilities while killing), and also a little... not disrespectful, but mean-spirited? I really do love these games so me willingly giving my life up is not considered lightly. I would hope whoever the Inquisitor is respects me enough to take the deal.

6 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

@Sart, what had made you wonder about this? Sart

---

While I think it could be nice to get an early Inquisitor conversion to get the game moving along, this is the only cycle I'd care to actually do anything to help that, and definitely wouldn't want to be waiting for them to get all their conversions off. Regardless of what we do, it's be a good discussion to have had though.

I feel reticent to lynch Aman day 1 - village/spiked/future convert, I feel like I'd prefer to keep his level of activity alive for at least the next cycle or two. Fifth, Brightness, Rand, and maybe Devotary I'd also put in a similar position. Obviously, if any are exhibiting suspicious behaviour, lynch away, but I've not seen anything that I'd call suspicious from them yet.

I really appreciate everyone who supports letting me live (though I do expect most Inquisitors would lean on that side of things). That said, my level of activity shouldn't really be a reason to keep me around. I personally feel that every player can do everything I can do and more. It's only really a matter of time and motivation. While I'm not expecting (or  asking) for people to post 20+ times a turn, I do ask that everyone does their best / works the hardest they can. There's a lot of fantastic players in this game and the Inquisitor only has so many conversions, so I fully expect this game to end up a fun / close one.

3 hours ago, Randuir said:

They are not. They've played a number of games under the names ax's boyfriend and ark.

Tssk, you should reread the first 2 cycles of LG32. Aman made a grandiose challenge against the inquisitor... and promptly got killed off by a village coinshot for his troubles Now that's a way of calling someone's bluff!

Anyway, back to the game itself. I actually thought Aman might have been a tin-eye,as that's another role that's very easy to prove. More importantly, I wouldn't expect any of the possible inquisitor spikes to give them an anonymous message power, but I'm not 100% certain he wouldn't have some form of emotional allomancy spike that could be used to emulate being a soother.

I definitely understand Aman's arguments for making the game more interesting, but they are NAI. Likewise, I can see where fifth is coming from with his arguments against it, but I'd say its likewise NAI from him. It could be fifth being a worried villager, or the inquisitor trying to appear very villager. Either way, I'm against lynching  Aman until C3 at the earliest because he talks a lot, giving us stuff to look at if he flips evil, and he generally encourages participation by other people with pointed questions which is very useful for the village.

I would like to go on record here that Fifth is giving me a bit of a bad gut feeling. I think it's coming from the way he seemed to overemphasize him checking aspects of the inquisitors powers with Straw, but I don't know, and I don't generally act on gut feelings.

I'm going to vote on Rayofsunshine @RayOfSunshine. They are active on the Shard, just not in this thread so I'm having trouble seeing why they haven't checked in so far.

Aonar really broke my heart that game haha.

One thing I didn't even consider until last night was that if the Inquisitor has UberSoothing, he could keep that metal after converting me and use it to simulate my ability, keeping me in a trusted position for the entire game while using me to direct people and gather information. While that would be a really awesome / fun play, stating it now makes it very unlikely, and to be completely honest, I really think I should step out of this game regardless. I've been thinking about the long-term implications of my actions so far. It's generally not a great thing to have a "confirmed" village player, especially this early in a game. Mayoring is a real concern and even while I make conscious efforts to avoid it, it's a slippery slope. If someone has to die it might as well be me. And it's not like I can't try to solve the game from the dead doc.

Anyone is capable of encouraging participation in others. Would you be willing to keep up with my post counting & pings after I die, Rand? It doesn't need to be as extensive, but just being mindful of the lowest posters and asking them questions to get them involved really goes a long way.

I don't really think Ray is a good idea for a lynch, sadly. Rolelessness and inactivity usually go hand-in-hand. However, I think it may be in the Village's best interest to tie a vote with me and whoever people most suspect of being the Inquisitor. It's the best of both worlds.

• (3) Amanuensis: Fifth Scholar, Amanuensis, StrikerEZ,
• (1) STINK: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Lumgol: Young Bard,
• (1) Fifth Scholar: Doc12,
• (1) Sart: Haelbarde, 
• (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir,

 

  Hide contents

1. Haelbarde: [2]
2. Burnt Spaghetti: [2]
3. Snipexe: [4]
4. StrikerEZ: [4]
5. Araris Valerian: [2]
6. Lumgol: [1]
7. RayOfSunshine: [0]
8. shanerockes: [2]
9. Doc12: [2]
10. Randuir: [6]
11. Amanuensis: [20]
12. BrightnessRadiant: [5]
13. Fifth Scholar: [6]
14. Devotary of Spontaneity: [3]
15. Rathmaskal: [2]
16. Young Bard: [3]
17. Sart: [1]
18. STINK: [2]

Edited July 29, 2019 by Amanuensis

[STINK]

7 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

It's generally not a great thing to have a "confirmed" village player, especially this early in a game. Mayoring is a real concern and even while I make conscious efforts to avoid it, it's a slippery slope. If someone has to die it might as well be me. And it's not like I can't try to solve the game from the dead doc.

Yeah I'll break RP for this it's w/e.

TLDR; You ain't confirmed, no-one should think this guy is confirmed. Mayoring ain't gon happen, since people should be thinking about PM SPYING possibly existing and all that, and yeah I get to do caps for emphasis sometimes if I feel like it. 

Inquisitor can kill you if its too much of a problem and all, now that I think of it.

9 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

However, I think it may be in the Village's best interest to tie a vote with me and whoever people most suspect of being the Inquisitor. It's the best of both worlds.

So bloodthirsty

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, STINK said:

Yeah I'll break RP for this it's w/e.

TLDR; You ain't confirmed, no-one should think this guy is confirmed. Mayoring ain't gon happen, since people should be thinking about PM SPYING possibly existing and all that, and yeah I get to do caps for emphasis sometimes if I feel like it. 

Inquisitor can kill you if its too much of a problem and all, now that I think of it.

So bloodthirsty

I kinda disagree. The likelihood of me being the Inquisitor right now is something like 00.000000001%.

Problem is, if I don't get lynched today, the Inquisitor has incentive to NK me (confirmed Misting), while a potential village!Lurcher has incentive to protect me. That's an issue in itself because if he does hit me and I'm protected, we're still at square one, and if he doesn't hit me and kills a vanilla, then we're still at square one. Neither one of those scenarios are ideal for me. Converting me would very likely be a waste, unless the Inquisitor has UberBrass, but even then, it's a risky play. Chances are I will be Seeked if I live for too long.

If you can be thirsty for your own blood, then I guess the adjective applies

 

[DeTess]

14 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I kinda disagree. The likelihood of me being the Inquisitor right now is something like 00.000000001%.

I've got it on about 18%, but then again, I don't have access to your role PM. I don't know about everyone else, but I'm not writing you off as confirmed good anytime soon. I also think you shouldn't underestimate the effect you have on the games you play by encouraging other people to participate. Last Mr's threads became a lot longer once you got active, and that wasn't just because you post a lot.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Randuir

[Amanuensis]

Main reason I can't be the Inquisitor is because claiming a role like I had would be suicide. So long as I live I've vowed to prove my Soother-ness, and all players are limited to a single action a cycle. I'd never be able to convert that way.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Sart]

7 hours ago, Haelbarde said:

@Sart, what had made you wonder about this? Sart

---

While I think it could be nice to get an early Inquisitor conversion to get the game moving along, this is the only cycle I'd care to actually do anything to help that, and definitely wouldn't want to be waiting for them to get all their conversions off. Regardless of what we do, it's be a good discussion to have had though.

I feel reticent to lynch Aman day 1 - village/spiked/future convert, I feel like I'd prefer to keep his level of activity alive for at least the next cycle or two. Fifth, Brightness, Rand, and maybe Devotary I'd also put in a similar position. Obviously, if any are exhibiting suspicious behaviour, lynch away, but I've not seen anything that I'd call suspicious from them yet.

Based on Aman's comments, I deduced that he had some type of vote manipulation. I was worried about what would happen if he was converted. However, the GM has clarified that in either case, the person converted loses their original role. In my opinion, vote manipulation is very dangerous in Elim hands. Therefore, I would rather not lynch Aman, as that supposedly gives a 50% chance of vote manipulation to the Inquisitor.

I'm going to vote on Fifth Scholar . While I agree with his points, he sounds like an Inquisitor trying to have Aman not throw the game.

[Amanuensis]

• (3) Amanuensis: Fifth Scholar, Amanuensis, StrikerEZ,
• (2) Fifth Scholar: Doc12, Sart, 
• (1) STINK: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) Lumgol: Young Bard,
• (1) Sart: Haelbarde, 
• (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir,

  Hide contents

1. Haelbarde: [2]
2. Burnt Spaghetti: [2]
3. Snipexe: [4]
4. StrikerEZ: [4]
5. Araris Valerian: [2]
6. Lumgol: [1]
7. RayOfSunshine: [0]
8. shanerockes: [2]
9. Doc12: [2]
10. Randuir: [7]
11. Amanuensis: [22]
12. BrightnessRadiant: [5]
13. Fifth Scholar: [6]
14. Devotary of Spontaneity: [3]
15. Rathmaskal: [2]
16. Young Bard: [3]
17. Sart: [2]
18. STINK: [3]

[Haelbarde]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I really appreciate everyone who supports letting me live (though I do expect most Inquisitors would lean on that side of things). That said, my level of activity shouldn't really be a reason to keep me around. I personally feel that every player can do everything I can do and more. It's only really a matter of time and motivation. While I'm not expecting (or  asking) for people to post 20+ times a turn, I do ask that everyone does their best / works the hardest they can. There's a lot of fantastic players in this game and the Inquisitor only has so many conversions, so I fully expect this game to end up a fun / close one.

To be clear, being talkative and supporting discusison isn't grounds for keeping you around indefinitely. But in my books, without good cause, it worth giving you leeway for the first cycle or two. After that, all bets are off. Just because everyone could do what you do, from what I've seen, most of the time they do not

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Edit: Thanks Sart. I'll remove my vote. 

And now I've a problem. I think it's important for people to vote - it's something substantial we can look back on, and even if there's little to go on right now, just the act of how people do vote with such little info can be useful. That doesn't mean it's easy to choose where to put a vote, and if I'm going to put a vote down, this is the last time I'm able to do so this cycle. I'll reread and see if I can come up with anything...

Edited July 29, 2019 by Haelbarde

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, so I’m not gonna be able to get on until after rollover because my shift ends right at rollover. 

Anyway, I’d just like to say that I wouldn’t mind a tie lynch if both Aman and Fifth, but I can’t vote on Fifth or else Fifth would be in the lead and I’d rather lynch Aman if it came down to it. So, if someone would vote on Fifth, that would be great.

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so I’m not gonna be able to get on until after rollover because my shift ends right at rollover. 

Anyway, I’d just like to say that I wouldn’t mind a tie lynch if both Aman and Fifth, but I can’t vote on Fifth or else Fifth would be in the lead and I’d rather lynch Aman if it came down to it. So, if someone would vote on Fifth, that would be great.

As of right now I could Soothe my own vote, but I'll wait for more people to chime in before I take any action.

[DeTess]

19 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I’d just like to say that I wouldn’t mind a tie lynch if both Aman and Fifth, but I can’t vote on Fifth or else Fifth would be in the lead and I’d rather lynch Aman if it came down to it. So, if someone would vote on Fifth, that would be great.

Are you aware that a tie results in both people dying, not just a random pick?

[Haelbarde]

Alright, if I had to put my vote anywhere, I'd put it on Lumgol. With I think only the one post, I'd also probably agree with Bard that it's not ideal to downplay the power of the evil team.

I do feel a little bad locking in two votes (short of vote manipulation), but I don't care for the other options. As it is, we've a 3 way tie if Aman does remove or sooth his vote... 

Again, I'd recommend everyone putting down a vote of some sort. There's 3 candidates currently, but there's plenty enough votes available to choose someone else. If you want one of the 3 to die, then do so. If you want the tie, vote anyway but try keep the tie balanced. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Haelbarde

[Amanuensis]

With 18 players, we could have 2 votes each on 9 of us and just see what happens

• (3) Amanuensis: Fifth Scholar, Amanuensis, StrikerEZ,
• (2) Fifth Scholar: Doc12, Sart, 
• (2) Lumgol: Young Bard, Haelbarde, 
• (1) STINK: Araris Valerian, 
• (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir,

  Hide contents

1. Haelbarde: [4]
2. Burnt Spaghetti: [2]
3. Snipexe: [4]
4. StrikerEZ: [5]
5. Araris Valerian: [2]
6. Lumgol: [1]
7. RayOfSunshine: [0]
8. shanerockes: [2]
9. Doc12: [2]
10. Randuir: [8]
11. Amanuensis: [24]
12. BrightnessRadiant: [5]
13. Fifth Scholar: [6]
14. Devotary of Spontaneity: [3]
15. Rathmaskal: [2]
16. Young Bard: [3]
17. Sart: [2]
18. STINK: [3]

 

[Haelbarde]

It'd make Alvron proud

(Edit: I had forgotten that we need 2 votes for someone to actually get lynched.)

Edited July 29, 2019 by Haelbarde

[Rathmaskal]

On 7/28/2019 at 4:48 AM, Young Bard said:

Hmmm... Lumgol. I tend to find that Eliminators undersell their own sides abilities (probably from an internalised sense of their own side being the underdog) - 2 spikes means just one convert and then one additional convert from suicide, which seems highly unlikely. Plus, something feels slightly off about it as a gut read.

Not sure what I think about this - Lum has played enough games at this point to know that this is a fairly standard read people look for on D1.

 

18 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Right now my instincts are saying the Inquisitor is one of Hael, Doc or STINK. I could see Burnt or Brightness as well. That said, I would rather leave the Inquisitor alone until they get all their conversions off. Discovering their identity early on in the game would make it boring, IMO.claims.

...

I also hesitate to make any plans that involve Seekers. With 18 players I'm not very confident one was included. Coinshot is possible, albeit unlikely (Mistborn exceeding the possibility slightly). Lurcher is probably guaranteed. Best case scenario, we preserve the integrity of these roles into the late game. It would probably be best if these roles do not claim to anyone until at least two conversions are made, and with an entire cycle of content to analyze after the fact.

I don't think early cycle inactivity is really that suspicious.  Might just be the fact that I usually take a little while to get into the groove of posting and getting reads on people...and at this point, it's possible some people were just in time zones that resulted in them being asleep for the entirety of the game to that point.

...

I'd think LG56? would have people making fewer assumptions about roles.  Strategy-wise, I guess I understand, but I hope no one makes any overall reads based on role distribution.

18 hours ago, shanerockes said:

I can also confirm STINK is active in PMs because we are in one and talking back and forth. Also, since you put a vote on me, I'll put one back. Aman. I'll take it away when you take the vote off me. 

:/

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That said, my level of activity shouldn't really be a reason to keep me around. I personally feel that every player can do everything I can do and more. It's only really a matter of time and motivation.

Time...very key aspect of that.

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I don't really think Ray is a good idea for a lynch, sadly. Rolelessness and inactivity usually go hand-in-hand.

I think Ark just likes to chill in the background a lot in these games, regardless or role (or not)

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Main reason I can't be the Inquisitor is because claiming a role like I had would be suicide. So long as I live I've vowed to prove my Soother-ness, and all players are limited to a single action a cycle. I'd never be able to convert that way.

Well, that could be a decent strategy if Inquisitor.Aman had access to a soother ability.

---

Overall so far, I'm a big fan of Fifth's analysis, and a moderate fan of Rand's.  Aman, well, I'm not sure what to think still.  I agree that it's less likely you are the Inquisitor, since the Inquisitor would likely want to fly somewhat under the radar at this point in the game, but I'm definitely not giving you as large a pass as you seem to think you deserve.

I'm in the camp that assumes that the Inquisitor isn't necessarily going to do a lot of converting early in the game.  Assuming three or four spikes, I could see one conversion early on just to have someone to talk to (And to survive if we get a lucky hit on the inquisitor), but saving anything else for later in the game when reads are a lot more established for this game.