Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[Doc12]

59 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Whoever the inquisitor is, i almost feel sorry for you with how bad your luck has been this game. Either the attacks get blocked or they hit a non-misting. And that doc of yours must be lonely.. You seem to have done a good job of staying hidden yourself tho so good job there! 

I don't get it. Snipexe announced to the thread last night that he was a misting, why target Araris instead? Maybe the Inquisitor believed that Snipexe would be protected but still. I don't know what the Inquisitor's doing. If the Inquisitor *is* still trying to convert instead of randomly hitting people, it clears people I know such as Burnt, Fifth and Bard, who know at least one Misting. I'm just very confused. Someone claimed Smoker, which means that the Inquiisitor probably has Seeking powers. Why are they hitting unsnapped?

6 hours ago, Elandera said:

I'm no longer suspicious of Lum, as I don't believe she's the kind of player to send in actions without actually posting. Fifth, Burnt, and Doc still remain in my village category. Suspicions are going to have to wait until I can review things. I'd like to take a closer look at Rath, Devotary, and probably Stink.

Not that I'm refuting your post, but both Lumgol and Shane have been on pretty recently. Shane was on 20 minutes ago and Lum is active in the other game. That said, I still don't think Lum or Shane are too suspicious now based on my analysis from day 3. They really need to participate more though. While it'll help narrow down the suspect pool, they could be mistings, which could mean free conversions for the Inquisitor. 

Some questions - if you have answers, PM me? 

Did anyone seek Snipexe last night? Is there a way the Seeker could let us know? 

What has Araris said that might have gotten him killed? I didn't have a PM with him, did anyone? 

Seriously, what happened to the second Tineye? 

I'll be back on tonight to do another read through and suspicion post. .

[shanerockes]

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

both Lumgol and Shane have been on pretty recently. Shane was on 20 minutes ago and Lum is active in the other game.

I have only been on to see the thread. I really don't have anything helpful to say. I don't what I even want to say here. I just look at what everyone else posts and then make conclusions from there. I do have 3 PM's open right now too so I'm not super active in PM's but I'm just trying to get the most info from that.

[Sart]

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

I don't get it. Snipexe announced to the thread last night that he was a misting, why target Araris instead? Maybe the Inquisitor believed that Snipexe would be protected but still. I don't know what the Inquisitor's doing. If the Inquisitor *is* still trying to convert instead of randomly hitting people, it clears people I know such as Burnt, Fifth and Bard, who know at least one Misting. I'm just very confused. Someone claimed Smoker, which means that the Inquiisitor probably has Seeking powers. Why are they hitting unsnapped?

Not that I'm refuting your post, but both Lumgol and Shane have been on pretty recently. Shane was on 20 minutes ago and Lum is active in the other game. That said, I still don't think Lum or Shane are too suspicious now based on my analysis from day 3. They really need to participate more though. While it'll help narrow down the suspect pool, they could be mistings, which could mean free conversions for the Inquisitor. 

Some questions - if you have answers, PM me? 

Did anyone seek Snipexe last night? Is there a way the Seeker could let us know? 

What has Araris said that might have gotten him killed? I didn't have a PM with him, did anyone? 

Seriously, what happened to the second Tineye? 

I'll be back on tonight to do another read through and suspicion post. .

Who claimed Smoker, and has their claim been verified by attempted vote manipulation? Since there's only one eliminator right now, we could easily verify such a claim.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

 

What has Araris said that might have gotten him killed? I didn't have a PM with him, did anyone? 

 

I opened a pm with araris during the last cycle to ask a couple questions (basically the same questions ive asked everyone else ive pmed)

Apparently, other than his pm with stink which he said was pretty dead, i was the only other person to pm him. So imo i reckon it would be something more based off thread.

I also suspect that the inquisitor may have figured that snipxe may have been getting protected following the in thread misting claim so chose to go after someone who may not be getting protected instead?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

If the Inquisitor *is* still trying to convert instead of randomly hitting people, it clears people I know such as Burnt, Fifth and Bard, who know at least one Misting. I'm just very confused. Someone claimed Smoker, which means that the Inquiisitor probably has Seeking powers. Why are they hitting unsnapped?

Where did you get the information that Bard knows a misting? I don't see him making any claims of the sort, so it would have to be in PM. Even if the Inquisitor did have Seeking powers and the Smoker wasn't put in the game to aid the Inquisitor as a teammate or fend off the Inquisitor's converts, the only Seeking that could have taken place is N2 as the Inquisitor has been alone every other night.

Araris's death has reminded me that a Seeker scan of an unsnapped could be more helpful than the other two kinds of results, as it doesn't put a kill target on somebody and presumably means that player isn't the Inquisitor.

[STINK]

Wow, you peeps have learnt a lot more than me claims wise based off of Doc's post

[Sart]

It's a bit pathetic that the Quick Fix is more active than this thread.

Anyway, here's a spicy reveal. I am a Smoker, and have not revealed my role until now. I doubt there are two Smokers in the village, so I'm willing to bet that whoever claimed Smoker to Doc is actually the Inquisitor. I'm putting my vote on Doc so he reveals who else has claimed Smoker. If I'm wrong, we give the Inquisitor a potential Smoker, which in the grand scheme of things isn't the worst thing.

[Haelbarde]

@Sart If you're a Smoker, have you been using your ability on others?

[Sart]

8 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

@Sart If you're a Smoker, have you been using your ability on others?

I have not. I didn't want to screw up scans.

[Fifth Scholar]

Alright, I have some time. Not nearly as much as I’d like, but I’ll take what I can get. Let’s tackle my case against Devotary. Going post-by-post: 

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[good RP]

The way conversions work in this game, there's no reason other than fear of iron protection for an Inquisitor not to kill a misting who will be able to consistently prove their role. Converting someone with a role is somewhat of an advantage in that it acts as a kill on that role, but there's less incentive for the Inquisitor to recruit players with roles than in other conversion games. I suppose a Seeker can confirm that anyone with a role isn't the Inquisitor, supposing the claimant isn't immediately slaughtered, but that's probably not the best use of a Seeker's action as it's wasted if their target does end up dying. 

The rules for this game seem to indicate that the Inquisitor can use up their last Spike to convert someone even though it kills them, which would make three spikes more reasonable than four. Unless Straw changed how UberSteel works for and the Inquisitor has access to the kill even without that Spike, the Inquisitor's array is likely limited to exactly Pewter, Copper, Steel. That seems like a good reason to remove the requirement for the Inquisitor to use UberSteel though.

This post I’d mark as NAI overall. There’s some village notes, such as mentioning the possibility of a suicide conversion, and also some sections that read more heavily as evil, particularly the section where she evaluates the Inquisitor’s motives—whether this is village!Devotary stepping into the Inquisitor’s shoes, or Inquisitor!Devotary trying to mislead us about her thought process, it’s mostly safe speculation and assertions, so NAI. 

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The main benefit of the Inquisitor converting early is having someone to talk with in the doc, but other than that it's the ability to convert and kill in the same cycle. Are you certain that conversion is a night-only action? I haven't found any examples of Inquisitors converting during the day with the corpse of a night kill, but I don't know if that was a choice or a rule. If conversions can happen during the day, an Inquisitor would be perfectly happy to abstain from using a Misting who dies today in favour of one who dies tonight, as that would allow them to get two kills in the first two cycles instead of one.

If you want to prove Soother, you would have to announce who your target is every day. Village smokers, soothers, and rioters would make sure they didn't interfere, but the same cannot be said for elims with those roles. Claiming your target at the last second once one of those roles is used as conversion fuel would help with that, but could get you tangled up with village vote manipulators targeting the same person.

I don't think we can afford to wait around until the Inquisitor uses up all their conversions. Specifically, this is because an Inquisitor with multiple lives is disinclined to use them all up for one more conversion. This is helped by the fact that a dead misting is needed for a conversion, so an Inquisitor who gets lynched might not have the opportunity to use up their conversion. With limited Coinshot abilities, going for Seeking lynch survivors instead of killing gives an Inquisitor another chance to get off a conversion, again only if day conversions are possible. The percentage of mistings will likely increase throughout the game, giving the elims a better chance of a night kill hitting one.

The first paragraph sets me on edge, somewhat—it’s again speculative, but I’m wondering why Devotary left the possibility of a daytime conversion dangling, and didn’t bother asking for clarification publicly or privately in or before her post. It seems to serve little purpose other than sidetracking discussion into speculative NAI territory, which is a good place to hide Elims, and to avoid needing to say anything controversial which might expose the Inquisitor to attention. The second paragraph read village to me at the time, as I was in the middle of debate with Aman and this post seemed to agree with my ideas, but in retrospect has no inherent village qualities to it; I’d mark it as NAI leaning village for the advocacy that we not wait too long to pursue the Inquisitor, but as it’s not too hard for the Inquisitor to say this, it’s not much of a bump up in my read. 

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That would be where you said you didn't want to kill the Inquisitor before they used up all their conversions. At the very least, we want to force the Inquisitor to seriously consider wasting multiple lives out of fear that withholding a conversion means it won't go off if they're suddenly lynched or attacked. We can still lose even if only two conversions happen as LG51 proved, and LG54 indicated that by the time the converter makes a full team, the game can be almost lost.

All good points, though obviously not too contentious if Devotary was evil. Still slight village read though, if I’m being holistic. 

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It's entirely possible that lynching the Inquisitor today wouldn't give them an opportunity to convert. All it would take is a Lurcher to protect Aman, and suddenly the Inquisitor has to make a blind guess and happen to hit a misting with the night kill. If a misting isn't night-killed, the Inquisitor doesn't have anyone to convert with and the game ends C2 after a lynch and a potentially necessary N2 coinshot kill. If the Inquisitor does manage to convert someone, we'll spend the rest of the game trying to kill what is essentially a serial killer with no ties to anyone else. Once a misting dies, any and all attempts to kill the Inquisitor are fair game. If they choose not to use the dead misting and end up dying without a convert that's their problem. If they die with one convert who was around before the Inquisitor lost a life, we'll at least have something to go on.

Again true, though NAI, of course—that said, I’m reminded of how much I appreciated Devotary agreeing with me when debating with Aman.  

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Straw also confirms conversions only happen at night, it seems. That will help us out later.

• (4/5) Amanuensis: Fifth Scholar, StrikerEZ, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, BR?
• (3) Fifth Scholar: Doc12, Sart, Amanuensis,
• (2) Lumgol: Young Bard, Haelbarde, 
• (1) RayOfSunshine: Randuir,

Once BR votes, it will be 5-3 votes against Aman. At this point, it's less about whether Aman dies then if he takes someone with him. It seems we have some opposition to a double lynch, which only makes sense if there's a belief that the Inquisitor is nowhere in the list of candidates/we won't be able to find the Inquisitor. So far as I can tell, we're lynching Aman more because he's a claimed misting and killing him progresses the game than because we think he's the Inquisitor guaranteeing that he dies early. A double-lynch kills someone actually suspected of being the Inquisitor. Lynching the Inquisitor D1 is not too early if they get a convert who has to choose how much to bus them before any Seekers unveil the Inquisitor. 

Inquisitor!Lum's vote would likely be a way of not dying to the lynch, rather than a challenge. At the time, all it would have taken was for Aman to remove his vote and all of a sudden she's up for the lynch. Voting for Fifth would have been moreeffective if the sole goal was survival. 

At this point, I'm just going to post something and start a new one.

Posted towards the end of D1, with the debate between myself and Aman. I...am honestly confused by this post; Devotary’s ideas seem to jump around a bit here, at least in the first paragraph, and it’s hard for me to follow her progression. She seems to sort-of defend Lum? I’m not entirely sure; either way, this post seems like mostly a scattered collection of thoughts, and I’d give it a slight Elim read, as it fills up space but did little to advance discussion. 

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Is Straw the type to take illegitimate votes? Whether or not we end up in a tie or not depends a lot on whether BR's vote actually counts. My instinct for this lynch is to end up with Aman having one more vote than anyone else and make him choose whether or not to end in a tie, but if BR's vote doesn't count then Aman might actually survive. At this point, Aman soothing a vote off himself means he could survive regardless of whether there's three or four votes on him. If Aman isn't going to Soothe himself, then my vote could either ensure Aman dies or ensure Aman lives. 

Aaaah! Aman. I think we want at least a chance of death.

Another post: 

Aman

Hmm. On the one hand, I sympathise with the confusion rollover must have been, and believe that village!Devotary would act similarly; however, this vote makes perfect sense for Elim!Devotary—she gets Aman killed and a guaranteed conversion, and potentially kills another villager if Aman Soothes (I’m leaning into Lumgol simply being a disengaged Villager). Also, the end of the post seems off, as if the confusion/stress was somewhat falsified; I don’t recall Devotary having ever made such an exclamation, and doing so at the end of a D1 lynch when the impact of her vote would be, at most, a decision of whether or not to certainly kill a claimed Seeker, makes it seem a bit exaggerated. After seeing Aman vote for himself, she retracts, keeping the votes balanced and maximising the potential for all three of myself, Lum and Aman to die. As such, Inquisitor lean for her actions at the end of D1. 

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The point of crafting a tie between Aman and someone else was to get something out of the lynch other than killing a misting for the Inquisitor to use for converting. With Aman being far too willing to die for the Inquisitor, a secondary lynch anywhere else would at least target an actual Inquisitor suspect, even if the odds of success were low.

The Inquisitor has one action, and has the ability to kill or convert.

Lum's vote for Aman is the least indicative of the three, as the votes were 3-2-2 between Aman, Fifth, and Lum with a decent chance that she would die if Aman retracted his vote. It looks like her vote for Aman over Fifth was for the purpose of getting a misting killed for the Inquisitor. The theory that BR purposely tried not to vote is almost certainly false, as even for an Inquisitor such a ploy would only make ties more challenging to force/avoid.

This was to BR/Elandera, and is NAI on balance—Devotary would defend her actions from either alignment—but as BR mentioned, tying the lynch only increases the likelihood that more innocents will get caught up in the lynch, so for doubling down on this, slight Elim read. Second and third paragraphs are very safe, and again NAI on balance. 

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Devotary was involved somewhat in the discussion, but on closer inspection they seemed to be hesitant to commit. Her posts mostly feel like she's providing commentary on what was happening, rather than being actively engaged and trying to steer things in one direction or another. The impression I got was that she was actually fine with Aman's sacrifice, but didn't want to outright state that. Maybe that's my tired head just over-analyzing stuff though. @Devotary of Spontaneity, you mentioned before that after a smiting died the inquisitor would be fair game. well, a misting has died, and the inquisitor got a conversion, so maybe join the hunt?  

—Converted!Rand

This post from Rand is when I really started feeling more uncomfortable on Devotary during my reread. It’s a very common strategy for teammates to express mild suspicion of each other in thread, or to ask brief questions to distance and give an appearance of interacting with them in thread; this post does all of the following, as it’s standard hedging/distancing, an easy question which doesn’t pressure Devotary on anything specific, and overall not enough actual pressure that she’s in any danger of being lynched. This may seem to fall into these similar patterns almost too easily, but there’s a reason those patterns are well-trod; they’re very effective at first glance. I didn’t start seriously looking at Devotary until D4, and partly because of this. Overall, heavy Elim read. 

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Objective one was to lynch a misting to progress the game, and Aman was the only one who volunteered to be that sacrifice. Objective two was to get a tied lynch so we would accomplish something other than killing a misting. That didn't end up happening because I forgot to look up Straw's policy on uncoloured votes and wasn't willing to risk having a lynch where only Lumgol or Fifth died. I wouldn't say it's impossible for Inquisitor!Fifth to have potentially(though not actually) tied the lynch ~15 minutes before rollover counting on public sentiment that tied lynches are bad to save him, but that would be a risky gambit for an Inquisitor.

The main thing I'm looking at for potentially being the Inquisitor is overly self-protective, but there hasn't been too much of that. We had shane and BR object to votes to the point of specifically asking the voter to retract, and Lum's vote that may have been partially in self-defense, but I'm not ready to vote for that at this point. Other than that, the Inquisitor likely would have approved of Aman's lynch and the prospect of a tie between Aman and another villager, but I'm not sure how much they would have expressed that view.

@Fifth Scholar, I had a blue word in my post N1 because I was testing out bbc code to make sure it still worked for me.

Devotary’s reply to Rand and I. Not much to go off here—the first paragraph is a farther defence of her D1 actions; I do agree that the comment stating unwillingness to lynch just Lum or myself is a little suspicious, but I’m a little more taken aback by the last sentence in the second paragraph. She says the Inquisitor would want to kill Aman and bring down as many people with him as possible, which was exactly her stance—the stipulation that the Inquisitor likely wouldn’t have been vocal about it seems to deflect attention from herself as well. Also, knee-jerk self defence can be a sign of villagers as well as Eliminators, but hunting for those who are overly defensive certainly isn’t bad policy, so NAI there. 

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Having Aman survive the lynch would defeat the entire purpose of making sure a misting was lynched. Perhaps Fifth and/or Lum are mistings, but it's far from a guarantee.

In response to Araris’ vote pointing much of the above out. I’m a bit curious about this post, as I got the general impression from Devotary D1 that she disagreed with Aman’s logic that we should allow the Inquisitor to convert; this seems to support it. 

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It wasn't a huge risk, sure, with an (arbitrary chance Straw didn't count BR's vote)*(arbitrary chance Lum -who I likely would have voted for over Fifth- isn't a misting) chance that we wouldn't have killed a misting. If Aman those two possibilities coincided though, we would only have one elim instead of the preferred two. You also know perfectly well that I don't vote early in the cycle regardless of alignment. 

Another response to Araris. Agree with most of it, but ultimately the points raised are NAI other than the emphasis, again, on killing a Misting, which might have been of interest to Inquisitor!Devotary wanting to build a team. 

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This lynch is now looking less likely to result in multiple deaths, though it still has the potential to be tied and I think we should avoid that this cycle. There is of course a 50% chance the elims have a Soother, but even if that is the case they may want to hold off from using it.

And now we have Randuir claiming Mistborn, which is unlikely to get a counterclaim in the next half-hour. Inquisitor!Rand probably could have gotten out of the lynch without claiming anything especially if their team has vote manipulation. That does leave the question of who a different lynch would be. I don't believe Araris is the Inquisitor, though I could see him doing something like pushing the lynch towards a three way tie last cycle if he were. Striker in his only elim game, did have a tendency to be very protective and make unexplained votes in order to counter a lynch on a teammate, and as Araris says the most likely candidates for that would be Rand and Bard. I'm also somewhat concerned by how easily votes have been slipping off the latter, so I will put my vote on Bard. I don't like how close this is coming to a tied lynch though.

Agreed with Sart that this is very suspicious—Devotary helped diffuse the bandwagon on Rand, throwing cold water on the possibility of a counterclaim, and immediately tilted the lynch towards Bard and brought up Striker as a possibility, who was the eventual lynch. Without being part of the voters that made Rand false-claim in the first place, this voting by Devotary looks very suspicious, and smells of assistance in saving Rand. Devotary also consistently votes with Rand here, and secures the majorities against him—once vote majority shifted away from Bard to Striker, she immediately moved to secure it, and I get the feeling Rand was preparing to move the other way if necessary. 

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We're still one soothe away from a three way tie, and I suppose not everyone defending Bard can be evil. I can switch from Bard to Striker.

As seen here. 

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Unless the Inquisitor has a spike that allows them to choose what a seek reveals, as opposed to a spike that makes a seek return the result of roleless villager, Inquisitor!Rand would not be able to hide from a Seeker.

How does the third Tineye message imply that Stink, specifically, is the Mistborn? Is there anything other than writing style? If Stink or somebody else other than Randuir actually is the Mistborn, it's probably best to claim in time to give Coinshots a chance to target Randuir and Lurchers/Seekers a chance not to target him.

Overall NAI—just statement of facts, though both to serve to diffuse points brought against Rand and his Mistborn claim. Presumably Inquisitor!Devotary knew Rand was the original Mistborn, and that no counterclaim was forthcoming. 

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I was definitely interpreting that part of the message as referring to the fact that it is necessary for at least one Tineye to be alive in order for PMs to be sent.

NAI response to comment by Lum. 

We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to bring you...Rand! 

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Devotary of Spontaneity

I'm still getting the same vibe of Devotary being somewhat distant to the game that I got before, with her more commenting on things that are going on, than proving her own analysis. Therefore, I'm about as suspicious of her as I am of Hael right now.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, who would you say you think is the most likely to be an elim, and who do you reckon is the most likely to be village right now?

This is, again, textbook hedging and distancing on an Elim teammate by mildly suspecting them and questioning them. 

Back to the main show...

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We do now know that the Inquisitor was the type to convert Randuir, and decided to attack Fifth this past night. The end of D2 was rather messy, but I feel confident in saying that Rath is not the Inquisitor. Would Randuir have decided to make a Mistborn claim assuring his eventual demise if he had an Inquisitor around to help him survive the lynch? But if the Inquisitor wasn't around, he would have to trust that <40 minutes was enough for people to remove their votes. Voting on Araris may well have provoked a retaliatory vote, but their were plenty of people with one vote Randuir could have gone after instead of starting a new lynch.

Votes Rand after the Seeker reveal. I will note that I was a step above Devotary in the Seeker chain, and that there was a minor delay in the transfer of the scan results to the thread through her, even after she’d read my PM, though that may have been Doc typing up his elegant accusation more than anything else  The rhetorical question is interesting; it seems to distance Devotary from the possibility of being evil, as she was online with Rand at the time, so slight Elim read here. 

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Any alteration to a message is doomed to failure when the contents are verifiable, as will be the case when Randuir dies. A false message results in the identities of everyone in the chain being revealed and ends up in a 1v1 standoff between at least one elim. Numbering the PM chain limits the Inquisitor's ability to stall via continuously passing the message on, as the person preceding them would ask where the message went. If pressed, the Inquisitor can't lie about their target because the person who contacted the Inquisitor can verify by PMing the supposed recipient, and the truth results in the sender asking the recipient for their number, either of which outs the Inquisitor. 

Experience is likely not the only reason Randuir was converted, though it might well have been a factor. It's possible Randuir was converted partially as a result of him being one of the most active players C1, but that doesn't fit with the fact that Randuir announced his activity was going to decline sharply unless the Inquisitor missed the last eight hours of N1. The fact that there are few players in this game that Randuir has been on an elim team with may have contributed.

The first paragraph is very true, but also very NAI; village! or Inquisitor!Devotary could reason through it with ease. Not really sure what to think of the second paragraph; it feels like glorified fluff, almost, but there are good points in it, I suppose? If Devotary is evil, the reason she converted Rand may be concealed within  I’ll go ahead and mark the whole thing NAI. 

Sart’s post D4 accusing Devotary makes me trust him independently of his more recent Smoker claim. 

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I believed Randuir's Mistborn claim, as did everyone else at the time. I did not expect him to be pulling a gambit that would guarantee his lynch D3 when the lynch was still subject to change.

@Doc12, to confirm, did Randuir claim Mistborn to you before or after Rath switched his vote over to Rand? Was this the time that you(according to Fifth) claimed roleless to Randuir? And why did you want someone to Seek you if it likely wouldn't provide any useful information?

While that’s fair, the complete lack of scepticism you demonstrated, along with the considerable help you gave him in dodging the lynch (in addition to potential earlier ties) makes me suspect you more than I otherwise would. The point on Doc is fair, as I still don’t trust him, and believe that he’s evil if Devotary isn’t. 

I’m slowly falling asleep so let me skip Devotary’s last few posts, mostly focused on last cycle’s lynch (only thing notable is a focus on increasing suspicion on Doc, and then switching to lynch Ark, who was the more likely Misting). The basic point of all this is that Devotary is probably the Inquisitor unless she can claim a Misting role that invalidates all this analysis. @Devotary of Spontaneity, do you have a provable role, or any piece of evidence that would preclude you from being the Inquisitor?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

51 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

1.The first paragraph sets me on edge, somewhat—it’s again speculative, but I’m wondering why Devotary left the possibility of a daytime conversion dangling, and didn’t bother asking for clarification publicly or privately in or before her post. It seems to serve little purpose other than sidetracking discussion into speculative NAI territory, which is a good place to hide Elims, and to avoid needing to say anything controversial which might expose the Inquisitor to attention. 

2.Posted towards the end of D1, with the debate between myself and Aman. I...am honestly confused by this post; Devotary’s ideas seem to jump around a bit here, at least in the first paragraph, and it’s hard for me to follow her progression. She seems to sort-of defend Lum? I’m not entirely sure; either way, this post seems like mostly a scattered collection of thoughts, and I’d give it a slight Elim read, as it fills up space but did little to advance discussion. 

3.Hmm. On the one hand, I sympathise with the confusion rollover must have been, and believe that village!Devotary would act similarly; however, this vote makes perfect sense for Elim!Devotary—she gets Aman killed and a guaranteed conversion, and potentially kills another villager if Aman Soothes (I’m leaning into Lumgol simply being a disengaged Villager). Also, the end of the post seems off, as if the confusion/stress was somewhat falsified; I don’t recall Devotary having ever made such an exclamation, and doing so at the end of a D1 lynch when the impact of her vote would be, at most, a decision of whether or not to certainly kill a claimed Seeker, makes it seem a bit exaggerated. After seeing Aman vote for himself, she retracts, keeping the votes balanced and maximising the potential for all three of myself, Lum and Aman to die. As such, Inquisitor lean for her actions at the end of D1. This was to BR/Elandera, and is NAI on balance—Devotary would defend her actions from either alignment—but as BR mentioned, tying the lynch only increases the likelihood that more innocents will get caught up in the lynch, so for doubling down on this, slight Elim read. Second and third paragraphs are very safe, and again NAI on balance. 

4.Devotary’s reply to Rand and I. Not much to go off here—the first paragraph is a farther defence of her D1 actions; I do agree that the comment stating unwillingness to lynch just Lum or myself is a little suspicious, but I’m a little more taken aback by the last sentence in the second paragraph. She says the Inquisitor would want to kill Aman and bring down as many people with him as possible, which was exactly her stance—the stipulation that the Inquisitor likely wouldn’t have been vocal about it seems to deflect attention from herself as well. Also, knee-jerk self defence can be a sign of villagers as well as Eliminators, but hunting for those who are overly defensive certainly isn’t bad policy, so NAI there. 

5.In response to Araris’ vote pointing much of the above out. I’m a bit curious about this post, as I got the general impression from Devotary D1 that she disagreed with Aman’s logic that we should allow the Inquisitor to convert; this seems to support it. 

6.Agreed with Sart that this is very suspicious—Devotary helped diffuse the bandwagon on Rand, throwing cold water on the possibility of a counterclaim, and immediately tilted the lynch towards Bard and brought up Striker as a possibility, who was the eventual lynch. Without being part of the voters that made Rand false-claim in the first place, this voting by Devotary looks very suspicious, and smells of assistance in saving Rand. Devotary also consistently votes with Rand here, and secures the majorities against him—once vote majority shifted away from Bard to Striker, she immediately moved to secure it, and I get the feeling Rand was preparing to move the other way if necessary. 

7.Votes Rand after the Seeker reveal. I will note that I was a step above Devotary in the Seeker chain, and that there was a minor delay in the transfer of the scan results to the thread through her, even after she’d read my PM, though that may have been Doc typing up his elegant accusation more than anything else  The rhetorical question is interesting; it seems to distance Devotary from the possibility of being evil, as she was online with Rand at the time, so slight Elim read here. 

8.I’m slowly falling asleep so let me skip Devotary’s last few posts, mostly focused on last cycle’s lynch (only thing notable is a focus on increasing suspicion on Doc, and then switching to lynch Ark, who was the more likely Misting). The basic point of all this is that Devotary is probably the Inquisitor unless she can claim a Misting role that invalidates all this analysis. @Devotary of Spontaneity, do you have a provable role, or any piece of evidence that would preclude you from being the Inquisitor?

1. I didn't bother to ask Straw, as I assumed Aman would be able to answer more quickly having played the last iteration of this game.

2. Lum has had a tendency to be overly aggressive as an elim up for the lynch, voting early on the main counter-lynch. It's entirely possible this habit has dissipated, but Inquisitor!Lum would have been particularly worried about a lynch that would effectively end the game instantly. Her voting for Aman rather than you made it seem less likely that this was the case.

3. There were six votes/retractions while I was typing that post, and I missed Aman's vote at the end with only a couple minutes left in the cycle. I was worried that I wouldn't have time to make a proper vote and the outcome was highly uncertain with the phantom vote that ended up counting. I'm still not sure why people were so opposed to the double lynch. I don't think I ever made any particular secret that I supported lynching someone alongside Aman. You and Lum may not have been ideal targets, but lynching either of you would at least given us a chance of catching the Inquisitor.

4. Supposing neither you nor Lum are the Inquisitor, the difference between lynching Aman and lynching him alongside one of you is effectively the difference between a no-lynch and a lynch on a villager. It's a tradeoff between killing a villager on one hand, and limiting information while avoiding the potential waste of a misting on the other. The people who supported the tie to some extent were Aman, Araris after changing his mind, Striker, Hael, and I. Hael and Striker did so rather neutrally. That doesn't leave a lot of possibilities open for a vocal Inquisitor.

5. I'm not sure where you got that I opposed lynching a misting D1, what was your reason to think that?

6. If a Mistborn had counterclaimed I would have voted for Randuir, but it was statistically unlikely that the few players around for rollover would be the Mistborn. I wasn't really thinking about the possibility of a convert Randuir, and assumed Inquisitor!Rand wouldn't do something so openly suicidal. I did indeed switch over to Striker, because if there had been a Spiked Soother around at the time, they would have been able to get a three way tie including the claimed Mistborn.

7. It took a bit for the scan results to get out because Doc asked me for the name of the person who shared the information with me, and I had to convince Doc that wasn't necessary unless the scan result turned out to be false.

8. I felt there was a negligible chance that Ark was a misting, seeing as how he openly claimed roleless at the beginning of N1 and Ark isn't usually the type to lie as a villager. The chances of him being the Inquisitor seemed higher than the chances he was a misting.

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

5. I'm not sure where you got that I opposed lynching a misting D1, what was your reason to think that?

I think it was these two posts, both of which also gave me that impression during my last analysis.
 

Spoiler

 

I think now your point was not necessarily "don't lynch a misting C1," but instead that we shouldn't delay finding the inquisitor just to lynch a misting for the conversion.

Fifth's post did remind me, though, I had some reservations about Devotary after my last analysis of C1 and C2. My biggest hang-up on actually lynching her, though, is changing her vote after Randuir's Mistborn claim. There was too much that could easily collapse after a scan. I don't think the Inquisitor would have wanted to tie themselves to that outcome, especially not elim!Devotary. She tends to be much sneakier than that.

I wanted to get a vote in tonight, but I'm mentally exhausted after work and I don't think I'd do any real justice to analysis. I'd more likely end up in a tunnel, as usually happens when I'm rushed and tired. I should get it done before the end of the turn still.

[Burnt Spaghetti]

My percentages on people.

Note that these are predominately based on pm interactions. The lower the percentage, the less i suspect them- 0% is full trust, 100% is full suspicion with 50% being neutral

I will note that these percentages may not necessarily make sense to you from just what i’ve written. Assume that there's probably confidential information that I would rather not share at this point

Me -  Cant comment really but i was attacked which at least soft clears me I would hope
Haelbarde - 29% - Pms with hael i’ve gotten a good village read from.
Snipexe - 25% claimed misting in thread. I believe it. Also seemed pretty willing to do an Aman to help get us more info so Imo i read village on them
Lumgol - 30% fairly inactive. I also suspect that they could easily be the second tineye as we’ve been only getting one message for the last while, which imo would clear Lum. 
Shanerockes - 25% Has been very open with me since I was attacked and I got a strong village vibe from them
Doc - 10% Doc has known the identity of a misting for some time, yet that misting never died. Also pms have rang strongly village
Elandera -  29% Pms have felt villagery
Fifth - 5% at this point I almost fully trust fifth based on being attacked by the inquisitor and improbability of being a WGG
Devotary - 55% As fifth pointed out, there's a lot of NAI stuff with Devotary. I also got a similar vibe in the few pms we had. 
Rath - 30% post my attack has been very open
Bard - 15% according to doc bard knows the identity of another misting so the same logic i used for doc would apply here. But my pms with bard have also been very villagery
Sart - 25%  This is mostly cause of the public claim
Stink - 45% Stink is notoriously hard to read. He is consistent, gotta give him that.

----

So, y’all may notice that there's a lot of people i trust there.. And not really any super suspicious people for me. The largest percentages being Devotary, followed by Stink, with Lum and Rath tied for 3rd.

So Devotary is currently my top suspect. Maybe they haven't done anything super suspicious this game. But frankly no one really has. What concerns me the most with Devotary is that in pms, I got a change of vibe from them as soon as Fifth had done that post going after dev. Previously Dev’s sounded very guarded to me. Will happily answer any questions I asked but as i said, felt quite guarded. Nothing really alignment indicative. After Fifths post, they started pming me to be a little more open. Information wise its again nothing super suspicious. But I feel like they’ve gotten scared. And that concerns me that all of a sudden they go from guarded to trying to be open and helpful and transparent as soon as eyes start shifting their way. Sure no one wants to die. But again, this still concerns me. 

Devotary, I do appreciate your attempt to try gain more trust and be open, but i feel like the timing is concerning. For this reason I’m voting for you. I’ll send you a pm as well about something as well
 

Edited August 10, 2019 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Doc12]

On 8/9/2019 at 1:04 PM, Sart said:

Who claimed Smoker, and has their claim been verified by attempted vote manipulation? Since there's only one eliminator right now, we could easily verify such a claim.

This confuses me. If you are a Smoker and know what a Smoker does, why did you confuse it for vote manipulation? Also, for the moment, I believe it's possible that there might be two Smokers in the game. Your point that giving the Inquisitor a Smoker wouldn't do much is fair, and something that we might do in later cycles if we still haven't caught the Inquisitor, but for now, I'm perfectly happy in denying the Inquisitor the chance to convert and mess up my reads  If they wish to claim, though, I won't stop them, and I'm leaving it up to them on whether they wish to claim to the thread. 

---

I guess I'll also be posting my own reads list, and I like Burnt's style of doing it, so here we go. 

1. Haelbarde (Spar) - Honestly I'd go 50%. I don't have enough to go on him and our PMs are rather erratic His activity fluctuates, between having enough time to build a case on me last cycle to making quick one sentence posts. 

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti) - 15% Pretty much trust. We've talked a lot in PMs and she's the one who encouraged me to be a more active player even if I'm roleless. 

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored) - 45% Claimed misting in thread. 

6. Lumgol (Teraval) - 30% slight village, because of the whole mistake with not understanding how Tineyes work. Not sure that they might be Tineye based on that, but the inactivity does coincide with the missing Tineye message. 

8. shanerockes (Bill) - 40% When asked how he would play as an inquisitor, says he'd be PMing lots of people to find out roles if he was inquisitor, but only has about 4 PMs. Then again, could be Inquizy as he doesn't seem to have connected to any mistings, which could explain the Inquisitor's bad luck. 

12. Elandera - 50% - There was the whole switch from Brightness to Elandera, which makes her difficult to read. I'm reserving judgement for now, though. 

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar) - 10%. Knows a misting and said misting ain't dead yet. And there's the whole, got attacked thing. It's mainly the first point. 

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene) - 65% I didn't think she was really that suspicious when Fifth made that post. But after that, in PMs she said she had a role and that she had told others about said role, but I haven't been able to track down who she PM'd about her role, which makes her a bit more suspicious to me. Also said that she would claim to FIfth which would make him take back his vote, but he hasn't so... I guess it bumps Devotary up past Hael. Ironically enough, if you'd actually claim to me, it could have made me consider your claim myself which might have stopped me from voting on you  

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal) -  30% Slight village because last vote on Rand on day 2 plus completely misunderstanding how conversion works (could be a feint possibly?) I don't know if Rand would have claimed publicly if not for Rath's vote, even though he did claim to m before 

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas) - 10% Pretty much cleared in my eyes, same rationale as Fifth. Has been very open in PMs. 

17. Sart (TBA) - 45%I did like him defending me in Day 4, even though it's true that the fact that I revealed Rand doesn't clear me. Has claimed smoker. Was a bit strange when they misunderstood how the smoker works at first. Also there's the nonchalance about giving the Inquisitor a conversion if his theory was wrong. Overall village though, but too little to go on. 

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted) - 50% STINK does what a STINK does, which is pop up randomly and disappear just as quickly. 

So in order of suspicions - Devotary , Hael + Stink + Elandera, though honestly I don't actually suspect Elandera that much, just that I can't read her, with Sart and Snipexe coming in third. Besides Devotary, Hael and Elandera, they're mostly inactive peeps, so I hope you guys post more. 

@LumgolYou really should post today or tonight if you don't want to get killed by the inactivity filter,

---

 

11 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The point on Doc is fair, as I still don’t trust him, and believe that he’s evil if Devotary isn’t

I'd just like to say here that only a Sith deals in absolutes  

[Haelbarde]

I should probably actually put thoughts on paper.

- Given the Inquisitor hasn't had any converts (barring Rand for a cycle), it feels like Fifth and Burnt are probably fine due to surviving an attack. 
- I was suspicious of Doc last cycle, but after his response, and the fact that he's apparently known the identity of a misting for some time, one that wasn't a thug, seems like a pretty good reason to suggest he's not evil. Sorry again for the pressure, Doc.
- I'm willing to read Sart as village for the moment - I both feel that the Inquisitor would be a little more active, but equally wouldn't feel the need to encourage a lynch on themselves to get things moving. A slow cycle where nothing happens is better for the Inquisitor.
- Lumgol's inactivity that's at the point where they're 36 hours (they didn't actually post night 3, but the inactivity filter is 2 cycles, not 4 turns, so I do assume that mean's they've got till the end of Night 5 to post) from dying due to not posting seems something an Inquisitor wouldn't want to do, so I'm not too suspicious of them. 
- Snipexe claimed misting in thread. I guess they weren't killed by the inquisitor, but they were also the suggestion to scan last cycle. We've no idea if the Seeker has been following the in thread suggestions, but if they are, well, there's been no message shared with thread yet to suggest they've found a good lynch candidate.
- Other than that, I've seen very little from either Shane or Stink to get a good read on either, though it seems STINK has been a bit more active. That's maybe a worry I guess, that he's been active, but not doing much, but that also seems about normal?
- Devotary, Rath, and Elandera have been pretty active so far, but rereading through their posts, I've found it hard to pull anything substantial from their posts. 
- Bard I've at least had an interaction with in PMs, and I've gotten a bit more of a village vibe from them. What info I've gotten from PMs have also seemed to paint them in a good light, so I'm willing to trust others opinions of Bard.

So I guess then, based on the above, the list of people I'm the least sure about would be Shane, Stink, Devotary, Rath, and Elandera. I feel like the Inquisitor is more likely to be somewhat active, so I'd probably say Shane is less likely. I'd probably put Elandera lower on the list, though that's mostly a gut feeling, and could be influenced by the changeover from BR, which it probably shouldn't be. So between Stink, Devotary, and Rath, I'm probably a little more suspicious of Stink, although I'd maybe have expected him to PM'd me more regularly (he PM'd me at the start of the game about random stuff, but then we've not really talked since), and may try and get actual game related info out of me if he were Inquisitor. Given Burnt and Doc seem to both also agree with Devotary and Stink being reasonable candidates for Inquisitor, I guess I'll support a Devotary lynch.

[STINK]

1 hour ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Stink - 45% Stink is notoriously hard to read. He is consistent, gotta give him that.

I would argue to the contrary  Very readable, just gotta open the right book.

41 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted) - 50% STINK does what a STINK does, which is pop up randomly and disappear just as quickly. 

I've been trying to check the Shard as often as possible, probably hitting an average of once an hour (discounting when I'm sleeping). No disappearing here, tyvm

4 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

- Other than that, I've seen very little from either Shane or Stink to get a good read on either, though it seems STINK has been a bit more active. That's maybe a worry I guess, that he's been active, but not doing much, but that also seems about normal?

I've never really been one to do too much anyway, always ends up backfiring on me somehow.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was gonna go through post by post but y'all basically said the same thing. Which is uh, kinda weird but hey what can I say when it comes to stuff like that

But I'll get into the general stuff here:

Looks like everyone is putting me near the top of their suspicions list not for being suspicious in anyway, but because I haven't done 'trustworthy' actions. Which I find kinda ironic 'cause most of you also stopped PMing me but yeah I guess that's w/e so instead I'll just say that it's also a two-way street and all that jazz. 

In terms of activity for the lynch (which is what I should be caring about the most), I do not want to get back into doing a bunch of hyper-analysis on a bunch of people and all that jazz, as it generally burns me out within like 3 hours and then I get real cynical which just ain't fun. And for the past few cycles, there's only been 1 evil person confirmed (though I didn't miss the cryptic kandra comment from random tineye) which means that I'm especially likely to misfire on a lynch target if I start one. I'm willing to hop on to good arguments, but maybe people are kinda feeling like I am 'cause there ain't been much. Though now that I think of it,

16 hours ago, Sart said:

I am a Smoker, and have not revealed my role until now. I doubt there are two Smokers in the village, so I'm willing to bet that whoever claimed Smoker to Doc is actually the Inquisitor.

Doc. I want more follow-up on this from your lot. 

Otherwise, I really got nothing. It'd be nice to say I'm being cryptic and all that, but I truly think way more people equally have way more knowledge of what's actually going on than me. 

Man's just chilling.

[Straw]

I just found out that I have to do some stuff with my family. Would people prefer to have a late rollover, or to have the end of the day delayed until tomorrow?

[Fifth Scholar]

19 hours ago, Sart said:

It's a bit pathetic that the Quick Fix is more active than this thread.

Anyway, here's a spicy reveal. I am a Smoker, and have not revealed my role until now. I doubt there are two Smokers in the village, so I'm willing to bet that whoever claimed Smoker to Doc is actually the Inquisitor. I'm putting my vote on Doc so he reveals who else has claimed Smoker. If I'm wrong, we give the Inquisitor a potential Smoker, which in the grand scheme of things isn't the worst thing.

To quickly address this, I don’t doubt that there are two Smokers—normally the Inquisitor wants to give up UberCopper at some point, so having multiple villagers whose bodies could be used to create a Smoker to cover for the Elims is distinctly possible. I know the Smoker that Doc does, and don’t find them suspicious—if you’d like, I could send a request back up the Seeker chain (assuming nobody above me has died) that they be examined, but suspecting them for a Smoker claim when it could be easily tested with a Seeker or Coinshot seems premature. 

[Elandera]

I don't have time to go through turns, as I didn't wake up when I had hoped (stupid storms). So, I'll just go with Burnt's style and do a read list.

1. Haelbarde 49% - Nothing is really sticking out to me as village or elim. His posts tend to have been helpful, thus I'm inclined to lean village, but I would like to get a better read. Part of this also may be it being my first game with him, so I'm not sure how to read him.

2. Burnt Spaghetti 10% - She's been active in PMs, and the one I've had with her gives me a very village read. Combine that with her getting attacked, and I'd put her solid village.

3. Snipexe 42% - This is another one where I'm unsure because of post count and content. The misting claim followed by nothing from the Seeker has me leaning toward villager, but would still like scan results to confirm. To be clear, not results of what kind of misting (only Snipexe should reveal that if he chooses to do so), just that it is a valid or invalid claim.

6. Lumgol 35% - I no longer hold the suspicions of her I used to. She's not the type of player, at least not previously been the type, to send in actions without at least making a small "I'm here, I exist" post. She had been online, but not posted last turn when Araris was attacked, so I doubt she's the Inquisitor.

8. shanerockes 50% - He's been around, but hasn't contributed a whole lot. This is fairly consistent from what I've seen in previous games with him, so NAI.

9. Doc12 25% - I've gotten a village read from him in PMs. Plus, as others have said, if he knows a Smoker and the Smoker hasn't been killed, he's unlikely to be the Inquisitor.

13. Fifth Scholar 10% - A lot of the same reasoning as Burnt and Doc. He was attacked, apparently knows of at least on Misting that has survived, and overall has been helpful and pushing for good discussions.

14. Devotary of Spontaneity 51% - I struggle a little bit with my read on Devotary. Some of her D1 posts gave me and elim vibe, but I really can't see elim!Devotary aligning herself in any way with Randuir's Mistborn claim. Since I'm inclined to trust Burnt's post, Devotary's response to suspicion is a bit strange. I just don't know what to think at this point, so I'm putting her at a solid neutral, very slight elim lean.

15. Rathmaskal 40% - I don't remember a lot of their posts atm, but from what I remember they didn't really set off my elim sensors. I'd like to look more closely at them.

16. Young Bard 35% - I haven't gotten any kind of read, which makes me lean village. I'm also willing to trust Burnt and Doc on this, but like Rath, I'd like to look more at his posts just to see.

17. Sart 42% - Same as Snipexe, really. Has claimed Misting, which I'm inclined to trust after Randuir's downfall. However, there's been too few posts to really get a read.

18. STINK 40% - I'm inclined to trust Stink, but I have a hard time finding the right book to get a read on them, which is why it's closer to neutral.

Overall, I'm left at Devotary being my only suspicion at the moment, with neutral reads close behind on Shane and Hael.

4 minutes ago, Straw said:

I just found out that I have to do some stuff with my family. Would people prefer to have a late rollover, or to have the end of the day delayed until tomorrow?

If it's delayed until tomorrow, I might actually get some real analysis done before the end of this turn. That's my vote.

[STINK]

4 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I could send a request back up the Seeker chain (assuming nobody above me has died) that they be examined

Oh god

[Fifth Scholar]

I’d prefer a later rollover than a complete extension, personally; I’m a little eager for results, perhaps, but this game is already stagnating and I’d like to hurry it along as much as possible. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Doc12 said:

This confuses me. If you are a Smoker and know what a Smoker does, why did you confuse it for vote manipulation? Also, for the moment, I believe it's possible that there might be two Smokers in the game. Your point that giving the Inquisitor a Smoker wouldn't do much is fair, and something that we might do in later cycles if we still haven't caught the Inquisitor, but for now, I'm perfectly happy in denying the Inquisitor the chance to convert and mess up my reads  If they wish to claim, though, I won't stop them, and I'm leaving it up to them on whether they wish to claim to the thread. 

 

We could confirm a Smoker by having a confirmed vote manipulator target their vote and see what happens, but seeing as how we don't seem to have any vote manipulators and the ability that permits this test also blocks Seeker scans, it's probably not worth it. In general, I think Smokers should be taking the action to turn off their coppercloud.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

14. Devotary of Spontaneity 51% - I struggle a little bit with my read on Devotary. Some of her D1 posts gave me and elim vibe, but I really can't see elim!Devotary aligning herself in any way with Randuir's Mistborn claim. Since I'm inclined to trust Burnt's post, Devotary's response to suspicion is a bit strange. I just don't know what to think at this point, so I'm putting her at a solid neutral, very slight elim lean.

Fifth publicly challenged me to claim something, and so I did. I gave my role to Fifth and Burnt, as two people I was reasonably sure were not the Inquisitor. There may well have been better people to choose, but it's too late for that.

Removing claimed mistings, those who know mistings but didn't kill them, and Rath for making Randuir's Mistborn claim necessary on D2 gives a fairly short list. @Lumgol dies at the end of N5, but I can't say I particularly want that to happen. I've heard that the Inquisitor might be afraid of killing secret mistings, as that misting probably told someone else they were claiming as insurance. It's possible, and I can add those names back in at the bottom but the Inquisitor really does need a misting dead. 

Of the other kills, Burnt was attacked right after being killed in the other game.Not strictly evidence, and the two attacks were only separated by fourteen hours, but I feel it's less likely that the Inquisitor would have attacked Burnt if they were aware.

1. Haelbarde (Spar)
6. Lumgol (Teraval)
8. shanerockes (Bill)
12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)
18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

9. Doc
16. Bard

[Lumgol]

Hello, I blinked out, and now I'm back.

It should be very easy to guess my role now, I think. Go at it if you like, and I'll do the whole not-confirm-or-deny thing  

[Snipexe]

I find Sart's claim interesting, because I'm the other smoker. Fifth and Doc basically figured it out just based on other known roles, and without the 2nd tineye's message, there was no point in saying otherwise. I don't really think there would be 2 smokers, but I already have my smoke off, and I assume Sart will put his down as well, and we can let the seeker check. I could also turn it back on next cycle if a vote-manip wants to check.

[Straw]

The turn is over!