Jump to content

Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat


Straw

Recommended Posts

6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

With that said, I’d appreciate it if you could shed a little more light on your PM with Rand; specifically, do you know why, as a Spiked convert, he would contact you with the false claim two hours before rollover, thereby locking him into it at a later date? And do you have any idea why he would PM you over another player, and to the exclusion of everyone else in the game, when your sleep schedule and time zone made it unlikely that you’d see the PM to begin with? 

Sure. I PM'd Rand after I voted on him on day 2, giving him a general greeting and informing him I suspected him. He replied that he had a way to prove he wasn't the Inquisitor by doing a role-swap. I agreed to it, and he claimed Mistborn and said the third Tineye message was his. Right off the bat. When I asked who else he'd told, he said he would tell Stink he said something to me as insurance. I believe that at that time he claimed, the vote on Rand was still Fifth and me. When I got back to the game, Rath had made the vote on Rand 3. I noted that fact to him, and he said that he was going to publicly claim. I retracted my vote on him after that. 

As to why he would PM me with that? I have no idea. When he suggested the role-swap, I told him that I had nothing to lose with that, sort of saying that I was roleless, but he apparently just claimed to me. Perhaps it's because we've been in games together like LG40 where he knew that I would be more willing to trust him than other players? In any case, it's not like my suspicions on him were fully allayed. I did still expect him to prove it somehow, I just didn't want to risk losing a village mistborn. 

Anyways, I did a long, long readthrough of past cycles trying to find subtle slip-ups and thingsand here's what I have. Hope it helps!

Good reads:

Fifth. While he's currently trying to lynch me, I don't fault him for it. As with Burnt, the attack on him would have been very counter-intuitive, and maybe it's simply because I haven't played enough games with you, but I don't think you'd pull that kind of gambit. 

Burnt. I believe Burnt to be capable of pulling that gambit, but I pray it's not the case here. In her PM with me, she accused me of being inquisitor based on a conversation we had, and I guess she just seemed genuine. I think I would read her as village for now. 

Lumgol. on Night 2, after Rand claimed mistborn and the one behind tineye message 3, Lumgol expressed disbelief because she misread the message as the tineye claiming to have messaged everyone and thus disbelieved Rand's claim. This is an odd mistake to make if they were the Inquisitor. Sure, it could be distancing, but it seemed to me like a genuine misunderstanding. 

Rath. Rath was the third vote on Randuir and the one which made him claim in thread. Also, he made a rule mistake this cycle where he wondered why the inquisitor wasn't converting. Again, could be a trick, but a really odd misunderstanding to do so on, considering how all of day 1 was based on the argument on whether we should lynch a misting to let the inquisitors convert. 

Slightly village

Bard Bard hasn't done anything here to make me trust or distrust him. He was voted on a lot in day 2 for largely arbitrary reasons and was tied with Rand before Rath voted on Rand and the mistborn claim happened. One comment that struck me was him advising against publishing the PM chain on Day 3 because "the entire point of the chain was to prevent PM spying from occurring and identifying the Seeker." But to those who were paying attention, the Inquisitor gave up UberTin on N1 to convert Randuir (If that was what revealing the Spike meant) Possibly not the Inquisitor, based on that. 

Araris Araris has been pretty engaged with the game, voting a lot. This cycle, he's been voting based on his reads of Randuir's posts. I'd point that Rand is very good at distancing, so his posts may not really mean anything after all. That said. Araris stating he doesn't want to lynch a misting and give the Inquisitor a helping hand echoes my own sentiments and makes me slightly trust him. 

Elandera It's heartwarming that at least one of you doesn't suspect me :P I like Elandera for that, they're reasonable. As she's a player that came in halfway, i have the natural inclination to not suspect her, compounded with her forgetting that the Tineyes were needed for PMs to function. I may be putting too much stock into people misunderstanding the rules, but this doesn't feel like a slip up an eliminator would make. 

I honestly don't know, in order of least suspicious to most

Shanerockes Claims to be busy, alright. I'm inclined to believe he's a true inactive atm, though he did PM me just moments ago fishing for information before I died. I'm inclined to clear him on account of that, because an Inquisitor wouldn't care what I knew before I died, would they?

STINK Threw a vote at Bard day 2, then voted on Rand after I denounced him... said no to soft clearing the PM chain. Overall seems to be encouraging discussion, but too little to go on for sure. 

Devotary focused on Bard day 2... feels confident that Rand is not the eliminator, was my contact in the PM chain. I don't know, I can't read devotary at all. Separate people I've PM'd have said she sounds villager, but I don't know. 

Sart Really hasn't done much. Shown up a couple of times to throw a vote around and disappeared. 

Snipexe. On day 2, voted on Fifth while the Rand bandwagon was underway. Possibly suspicious because of that. Not sure what to think of his offer to be lynched today. I agree with Fifth that he should be scanned, but if someone has to die it probably should be me. 

Hael Been quiet and conservative - did make a post calling out some people and asking questions. Accused me today which was mean, but did show that he's paying attention to timestamps which suggests he's been engaged. EDIT: Reading through Rath's post does make Hael slightly more suspicious to me. Perhaps take a closer look at him next cycle too? 

RayofSunshine At this point, I remain suspicious of Ray, who has been shown to be following along with the game (Finding Rand's hidden message, showing up in night turns, showing up when summoned) but hasn't contributed much. He asked a question when Striker died on whether unsnapped count as mistings, which would be an important question for an Inquisitor. 

 

Well, that's all I have for now. Hope you guys make good use of it and appreciate the amount of time I put in on this, my last day alive :P 

P.S. I expect an apology the following night :P 

Edited by Doc12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Doc12 said:

Well, that's all I have for now. Hope you guys make good use of it and appreciate the amount of time I put in on this, my last day alive :P 

P.S. I expect an apology the following night :P 

If you’re village, I will do both. In fact, I’ll do it right now—sorry, Doc. I’d re-evaluate my vote on you if it weren’t for time constraints, but currently with the limited analysis I’ve been able to perform in my head from rereading the thread last cycle, you’re still my best bet. Also, fair warning that after this post, I will not have any sort of sustained presence here between now and rollover. If there’s a Seeker scan or something that requires me to change my vote, I’ll see it, but little else. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to switch from Doc to Snipexe. I could be wrong and Doc could be the Inquisitor, but both players are suspicious, and I appreciate the effort Doc has put into his post this cycle. Seems rather lame to lynch someone after they demonstrate a willingness to be a solid contributor.

We still have 3 hours left in the cycle, and only 6 votes placed.

Current Vote Tally:

Lumgol (1): Elandera
Doc (2): Araris, Doc, Hael, Fifth
Devotary (1): Sart
Ray (1): Doc
Snipexe (1): Araris

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK, here's iso #2:

Bard
D1:
First post - Notes belief in Aman's claim of being a misting since it would be too much attention heaped onto the Inquisitor that early in the game.  Also notes being fine with lynching an inactive, but concerned it can stifle discussion.

Second post - This is the post where Bard misinterprets Lum's post as 'spikes' instead of 'lives'.  This post as already been brought under a decent amount of scrutiny, and Bard has tried explaining it as a misread...but it's still kind of suspicious.  (Vote on Lum here)

Third post - Starts with "Ok, its seems pretty certain that Aman is village..."  Bard seems to have gotten convinced of Aman's villageness a lot quicker than most people.

N1:
First post - Notes the following people as unlikely inquisitors: Devotary, Brightness, Araris, Stink
    Notes the following people as not active enough to evaluate: Ark, Doc, Snipexe, shanerocks, Rath, Sart
    Notes the following as most likely inquisitors: Hael, Burnt, Striker, Lum, Rand, Fifth

D2:
<Worth noting here that the start of D2 was Stink voting Bard followed by Araris voitng Bard with the Lum quote as the primary reason>
First post - This is where Bard backtracks a bit on the Lum vote, calling it a misread.  Makes a good point that if trying to frame someone, it would be better to not do it by misquoting something.

Second post - Vote on Hael - notes that Hael's "don't roleclaim immediately" post came after a role claim, thus making it a good way for an elim to sound villagey.  Good analysis so far IMO.  Then does some brief analysis on Rand, Burnt, Striker, and Fifth.  The one on Rand is particularly notable in that it reads Rand as village for, "...if he were the Inquisitor, he'd likely have passed the role over to a pinch-hitter...(due to being busy and such"  At this point, Rand had been converted.  The really stretchy logic reads kind of bad to me here in hindsight.

N2:
First post - definitely changes stance on Rand

Second post - notes that seeking Rand on a cycle with a conversion would guarantee a valid seek

D3:
<Rand's analysis post> - reads bard as slightly village, but does point out some of what I was noting from D1.Bard - ruling people out from being Inquisitor rather quickly

First post - notes that no one in the seeker PM chain should be cleared at all, also doesn't think the chain should be published.  Also notes (and I hadn't read this my first time through the thread) that it's possible that the Inquisitor is a newer person who was looking to Rand as an experienced player with the first conversion.  Leaning towards Shane or Snipexe as eliminators (this stays moderately consistent with N1 analysis that these two people weren't posting enough to be evaluated completely)

N3:
First post - notes that Elandera's initial reads are "...almost exactly the opposite of my own reads."  One thing that reads well here is the fact that since the Inquisitor is alone at this point, it doesn't make much sense for someone to be intentionally misleading on reads.

D4:
No activity yet

Overall, Bard has some very sketchy moves to me early in the game.  As the game has gone on, and Bard has been slightly less active, everything has been a bit cleaner.  However, I'm actually quite suspicious of Bard at this point.  I want to get a vote down right now for sure since we're ~3 hours from rollover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmm. Snipexe claiming misting is a bit abrupt, but also guarantees Inquisitor!Snipexe's death if he does end up being Seeked, which seems . We've had what claims to be two successful lurches in a row and no particular reason to believe either target is lying as the Inquisitor had more important things to do than attack themselves. I suppose we could have a PM chain with one Lurcher taking credit for both or two Lurchers choosing a random number to identify themselves and taking credit for one, but that risks the Lurcher(s)' identities to some extent. 

11 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Sure. I PM'd Rand after I voted on him on day 2, giving him a general greeting and informing him I suspected him. He replied that he had a way to prove he wasn't the Inquisitor by doing a role-swap. I agreed to it, and he claimed Mistborn and said the third Tineye message was his. Right off the bat. When I asked who else he'd told, he said he would tell Stink he said something to me as insurance. I believe that at that time he claimed, the vote on Rand was still Fifth and me. When I got back to the game, Rath had made the vote on Rand 3. I noted that fact to him, and he said that he was going to publicly claim. I retracted my vote on him after that. 

As to why he would PM me with that? I have no idea. When he suggested the role-swap, I told him that I had nothing to lose with that, sort of saying that I was roleless, but he apparently just claimed to me. Perhaps it's because we've been in games together like LG40 where he knew that I would be more willing to trust him than other players? In any case, it's not like my suspicions on him were fully allayed. I did still expect him to prove it somehow, I just didn't want to risk losing a village mistborn. 

So Randuir offers a role swap, you agree and suggest that you're roleless, leave, and then you checked an hour later to see if Randuir actually made a claim? I'm guessing he did not claim Thug!Mistborn at this time? I guess Randuir claiming what he did is less risky if he had reason to believe you weren't a Seeker, and that you wouldn't share the information. I still think this is an odd thing for Randuir to do, but I'm feeling less confident that you are the Inquisitor.

Randuir using a false claim to try and get out of the lynch at a time when Randuir and Bard were tied in votes makes me feel better about Bard not being the Inquisitor.

Actual vote coming soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bother. Somehow I totally forgot that Snipexe had claimed misting this cycle. I feel rather silly about that, given I directly responded to his post and said we shouldn't lynch him (at least not specifically to allow a conversion).

I guess I'll join Doc on Ray. The vanilla claim would be confirmed by a Seeker, and if he's telling the truth then there won't be a conversion tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doc (2):  Hael, Fifth
Ray (3): Doc, Araris, Devotary
Lumgol (1): Elandera

Devotary (1): Sart
Bard (1): Rath

14 players left, and currently two claimed vanillas are up for the lynch. Let's see. If Doc was the Inquisitor, he could have easily said that Randuir claimed after Rath's vote, which wouldn't have dug Doc into this hole. I think I'll let Doc survive this cycle and vote for Ray.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[Writeup to be edited in later if I have the time.]


Ax's Boyfriend has died! He was a Vanilla.

Vote Count:

Ax's Boyfriend (3): Doc12, Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity

Doc12 (2): Haelbarde, Fifth Scholar

Lumgol (1): Elandera

Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Sart

Young Bard (1): Rathmaskal

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

Sorry about there not being a writeup. I'm kind of busy today.

The Night will end on August 8th at 4:00 PM EST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple) Vanilla

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill) Vanilla

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To respond to Araris' question at the end of last cycle, that's a good point.  I wasn't reading through everything while trying to iso, just keying in on Bard posts, posts that interacted heavily with Bard, or posts about reads on Bard.  So, I'm not sure what to think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doing the voting thing again, though apparently neither the Coinshots nor the Seeker are very willing to follow through on this (or share the results), shanerockes,Bard. I’d like to see some of the more inactive players gone, to speed the game up a bit without us needing to take a hit to discussion. It was fortunate Ark was a vanillager, delaying an Inquisitor conversion yet another cycle, though something will have to give eventually. :P Meanwhile, active players should be Seeked, so we don’t kill reasonable voices pitching in to discussion without a fair examination beforehand. 

Updated suspicions list (most—>least): 

Doc12

Devotary of Spontaneity (rise in suspicion after rereading thread, not a bad Coinshot target if not pursuing inactive)

Young Bard (Araris had good points on him but I’m still paranoid)

Lumgol

Snipexe (the Misting claim looks like a deflection tactic somewhat)

shanerockes (needs to talk more)

STINK (probably merits a closer look at some point)

Sart (has had generally good points, making an effort to vote)

Haelbarde

Elandera

Rathmaskal (might be a good Seeker target later?)

Araris Valerian (good effort + points + tone)

Burnt Spaghetti

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I...am not dead. I'm honestly surprised not to be. Also annoyed that I was wrong about Ray (Sorry Ray) A lot happened while I was asleep!

I wonder if the reason the vote changed was because of my vanilla claim not being useful to the Inquisitor. I would suspect Araris for changing his vote from me to a claimed misting, but then he changed his vote to Ray. I don't know what to think about Devotary, the vote which broke the tie. I don't know what to think because Devotary apparently thought Ray was another vanilla as well? 

Suspicion shortlist

Hael - Since Ray is gone, Hael moves up to the top of the list. He was pretty active yesterday, he's been quiet and mainly talking about mechanics engaged enough to be comparing timestamps and making cases against innocent people :P Fifth, why is Hael so low on your suspicion list? 

Devotary - sorry, I know you technically saved me and voted for the person I wanted, but I didn't *want* to be saved :P.

Snipexe - I want to trust him because of his misting claim, but I want him Seeked first to ensure he's not the Inquisitor 

I think that Snipexe would be a better Seeker target, considering his misting claim yesterday.

Apologies for not dying, everyone. ya'll can lynch me tomorrow it if it will satisfy Fifth

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right. I'd hoped to have another list prepared of who I'm clearing and why, but I wanted to get it out this Cycle and I don't feel like going through in the amount of detail I wanted to, so here's a quick rundown of my thoughts without having gone back through players posts or providing any actual analysis - green indicates I trust those players, orange indicates I'm not prepared to clear them, and red is I'd like them Coinshot or lynched ASAP. I intend to do the list properly, which might see a couple opinions change, once I'm properly awake, since it's 2:30am and I have school tomorrow. :P

Haelbarde (Spar)
Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)
Snipexe (Cutting Bored)
Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)
Lumgol (Teraval)
shanerockes (Bill)
Doc12 (Galen Aurette)
Elandera (TBA)
Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)
Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)
Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)
Sart (TBA)
STINK (Fonar Redacted)

The other thing I want to bring up is that if the Inquisitor doesn't kill a Misting tonight, it may be worth killing a Misting in the lynch tomorrow, for all the reasons discussed way back in Day 1. Looking for a lone Inquisitor is frankly not a very interesting job, and pretty demoralising for the Inquisitor too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Doc12 said:

I don't know what to think because Devotary apparently thought Ray was another vanilla as well? 

Ray claimed roleless in thread during N1.

5 hours ago, Snipexe said:

It really worries me though that we have yet to see another seeker result.

There isn't too much value in the Seeker sharing results in thread at this point, if they've given their results to some misting. A Seeker claiming someone is hard-cleared tells the Inquisitor that player is a misting, which could be necessary if that misting is about to be lynched for suspicion but dangerous otherwise, while a null result of roleless villager tells the Inquisitor not to attack that person while not providing incredibly helpful information. Having two players know the scan results should ensure that they can't be disappeared with a night kill. If another conversion happens, only two people knowing is precarious, but we're not at that point yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

[I'm still busy, so no writeup for now.]


Araris Valerian has died! He was an Unsnapped.

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The Day will end on August 10th, at 4:00 PM EST.

@Lumgol and @shanerockes did not post last cycle. They will be killed by the activity filter if they do not post this cycle.

Tineye Message #1:

My vision is clouded. I consult the entrails of a chicken, searching for answers, but I only find more questions. Three signs are clear, yet unclear at the same time.
The first, the sign of the kandra, a sign showing layers of deception and manipulation, the extent of which we may not yet realize. Where the root of the deception is, the entrails do not say.
The second, a spike, a symbol of dark arts that should never be practiced. This one seems obvious - a sign of the Inquisitor, the foul abomination on their indefatigable mission. But yet, is that not also a warning to us, that in our haste and our paranoia we may ourselves commit dark deeds that should never even be spoken of? After all, it is not the Inquisitor that killed MaiKall, Variel and Voidapple.

The third, a skull - you do not need an augur to say that death is on the horizon, but for who? The Inquisitor, or for those who chase him?

I consult the entrails, and I leave even more confused than when I arrived.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod) Unsnapped

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple) Vanilla

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill) Vanilla

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

Edited by Straw
Forgot death info.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Rathmaskal said:

I was about to comment on no one dying again...but looking at the player list, it looks like we lost Araris?  :(

Yeah, if you refresh, you'll see that I posted it, and then edited his death info it in right after it was posted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't have much to say at the moment, other than I'm hoping to take some time before this turn ends to go into my suspicions. Unfortunately, that probably won't happen until late tomorrow night, as I still have work to deal with. Overall, I need to re-look at my suspicions, as I think I've confused some of them between games >.< 

I'm no longer suspicious of Lum, as I don't believe she's the kind of player to send in actions without actually posting. Fifth, Burnt, and Doc still remain in my village category. Suspicions are going to have to wait until I can review things. I'd like to take a closer look at Rath, Devotary, and probably Stink.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys, guys, if we don’t lynch a Misting we can stop the Inquisitor from converting again! :lol:

More seriously, Araris, you’re probably right about a tunnel on Doc; while I’d like him dead to assuage my paranoia, that’s true of everyone at this point, and I really just need to expand my focus beyond just him. Analysis and a vote coming later tonight, maybe edited in here. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Whoever the inquisitor is, i almost feel sorry for you with how bad your luck has been this game. Either the attacks get blocked or they hit a non-misting. And that doc of yours must be lonely.. You seem to have done a good job of staying hidden yourself tho so good job there! 

Also that tineye message? Love. Very nice

Hm.

As for suspicions, i need to do more thinking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...