Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[Burnt Spaghetti]

41 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

So, @Burnt Spaghetti, you've not posted since Day 1. Show yourself 

*pouts* why d'ya have to drag me out of my cozy pm cave for

Haven't had thoughts i felt were worth posting, though i've been talky in pms

I'll happily respond to any questions if people wanted to ask me stuff though.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Burnt Spaghetti

[Haelbarde]

17 minutes ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

*pouts* why d'ya have to drag me out of my cozy pm cave for

Haven't had thoughts i felt were worth posting, though i've been talky in pms

I'll happily respond to any questions if people wanted to ask me stuff though.

Completeness, mostly. I know you're a PM Spider, but it's true that you've only posted twice, and that was Day 1. 

As an aside, did you get notified that I mentioned you? Not sure how mention notifications interact with edits.

---

So, that's the less active players. While I probably need to do another pass through the backlog, I'm struggling to pick out anything substantial to be suspicious of. There's maybe one or two small things I can look into and think about, but that's going to have to wait till I do another more in depth pass. 

For the moment, I would love to get people's thoughts on Stink. PM me if you don't want to share in thread for whatever reason, but I'd be of a mind to lynch him if he's mostly just had out of game conversations with everyone.

I will put a vote on RayOfSunshine. Of the inactives, their contributions have been the smallest, while their forum activity is high. This is still mostly a poke vote, but it really is past since time to contribute something.  

[Burnt Spaghetti]

5 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

Completeness, mostly. I know you're a PM Spider, but it's true that you've only posted twice, and that was Day 1. 

As an aside, did you get notified that I mentioned you? Not sure how mention notifications interact with edits.

--shnippidy

For the moment, I would love to get people's thoughts on Stink

Siiiigh  

and yeah i did get the notification from the edit

My thoughts on stink? My pms with him have mostly been about pming. Though he mentioned being distracted by irl stuff so hadnt been eyeing anyone with suspicions when i last asked if he had any, tho that was just over a full day ago that i asked so idk.

[STINK]

16 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

I would love to get people's thoughts on Stink. PM me if you don't want to share in thread for whatever reason, but I'd be of a mind to lynch him if he's mostly just had out of game conversations with everyone.

I reckon he's a lovely chap, would really love to sit down and have a chat with him. 

Was I meant to PM you that?

[Snipexe]

1 hour ago, Haelbarde said:

@Snipexe We've not heard from you since your post Day 2 where you promised us more thoughts. Hadn't your time freed up after finishing the project? You managed 5 posts day 1. 

 

Yeah, it has, I’m just still getting used to that.

So, I definitely think a WGG is a possibility and not something to rule out at this point. The fact that this is Fifth, makes it especially suspect. I can’t help but think this is an attempt to get suspicions off of a naturally suspicious player. ( Quick Aside: @Fifth Scholar you may have said this already, but you were not in contact with a lurcher, correct?) That along with the post I made last day turn(about Fifth being a rather good convert target) is enough to at least get a vote on him Fifth Scholar

[Fifth Scholar]

Just now, Snipexe said:

Yeah, it has, I’m just still getting used to that.

So, I definitely think a WGG is a possibility and not something to rule out at this point. The fact that this is Fifth, makes it especially suspect. I can’t help but think this is an attempt to get suspicions off of a naturally suspicious player. ( Quick Aside: @Fifth Scholar you may have said this already, but you were not in contact with a lurcher, correct?) That along with the post I made last day turn(about Fifth being a rather good convert target) is enough to at least get a vote on him Fifth Scholar

To clarify, you believe that I, as Inquisitor (as the convert could have gained only Soother powers), decided to attack myself after a cycle in which I needed a dead Misting to have any hope of converting another player anytime soon, and in this way burned an extra life to keep suspicion off me? I suppose in some cases I might venture to do this, if I was already under a lot of suspicion, but a gambit such as this during the opening rounds, when I was under little suspicion to begin with, has no purpose for Inquisitor!me when I could be narrowing the village’s numbers advantage and setting myself up to convert later. As I’ve already detailed, I couldn’t have been converted N1, as there’d be no way for me to survive a N2 attack, so the only alternative is Inquisitor!me willingly sabotaging myself for little to no reason. Also, I’d protest that I’m naturally suspicious; I’ve been mislynched once in my entire SE career, and that was only for executing mass-scale deception and phishing. Inquisitor!me has far more incentive to trust myself to talk my way out of a lynch than to try a WGG which only draws attention. 

A longer analysis post is forthcoming, with a vote. I hope that the Inquisitor is within our grasp by D4 at the latest. 

[STINK]

5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Also, I’d protest that I’m naturally suspicious

To be fair, your title is 'Honourary Eliminator'

[Doc12]

Gather 'round, gather 'round, my fellows! 

I have just received grave news of great import! I have received word from a PM chain that our good friend Eliza (Randuir) is not all that she (he) has claimed to be! A Seeker has examined our good friend and found him a vanilla spiked convert. The Seeker started a chain of messages, and I, the last in that chain, have been selected to declare it in public. 

Of course, you might ask how I trust the word of a PM chain, but this method can guarantee us catching a spiked - if Randuir is evil, we get rid of an eliminator today, If he is not, iI will reveal who has sent this message, and they will reveal who informed them of this. T'would be a simple matter of tracing the PM chain upwards to find out where this message originated or where it was changed. 

I trust that you will act on this information well, fellow friends. 

Yours in good faith,

Galen Aurette

[Fifth Scholar]

4 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Gather 'round, gather 'round, my fellows! 

I have just received grave news of great import! I have received word from a PM chain that our good friend Eliza (Randuir) is not all that she (he) has claimed to be! A Seeker has examined our good friend and found him a vanilla spiked convert. The Seeker started a chain of messages, and I, the last in that chain, have been selected to declare it in public. 

Of course, you might ask how I trust the word of a PM chain, but this method can guarantee us catching a spiked - if Randuir is evil, we get rid of an eliminator today, If he is not, iI will reveal who has sent this message, and they will reveal who informed them of this. T'would be a simple matter of tracing the PM chain upwards to find out where this message originated or where it was changed. 

I trust that you will act on this information well, fellow friends. 

Yours in good faith,

Galen Aurette

Alright, seems fair enough. Randuir, that Mistborn claim was a gutsy move. You’re to be commended—but unfortunately, it looks as though we must kill you. 

[DeTess]

Aw come on! Couldn't they have done that before I spend all that time pretending to do analysis  

Edited August 3, 2019 by Randuir

[STINK]

Good luck trying to make the rest of the cycle as productive, everyone that is not Randuir

[Burnt Spaghetti]

A confirmed eliminator in thread? This could be a fun cycle.  Randiur  

[DeTess]

11 minutes ago, STINK said:

Good luck trying to make the rest of the cycle as productive, everyone that is not Randuir

To maybe keep a bit of momentum in the game, @Straw, would you consider ending the cycle early if I get over 50% of the available votes before the first 24 hours of the cycle are over?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

We do now know that the Inquisitor was the type to convert Randuir, and decided to attack Fifth this past night. The end of D2 was rather messy, but I feel confident in saying that Rath is not the Inquisitor. Would Randuir have decided to make a Mistborn claim assuring his eventual demise if he had an Inquisitor around to help him survive the lynch? But if the Inquisitor wasn't around, he would have to trust that <40 minutes was enough for people to remove their votes. Voting on Araris may well have provoked a retaliatory vote, but their were plenty of people with one vote Randuir could have gone after instead of starting a new lynch.

[Straw]

1 hour ago, Randuir said:

To maybe keep a bit of momentum in the game, @Straw, would you consider ending the cycle early if I get over 50% of the available votes before the first 24 hours of the cycle are over?

Sure, I'll do that as long as other players support it and I'm around at that time.

[Sart]

I'm out of town right now so I don't have much time to play. Apparently, Rand was scanned? Very well, Randuir

[Snipexe]

Rip,  Randuir.

Well, guess my Fifth convert theory is kind of shot.

[Fifth Scholar]

1 hour ago, Randuir said:

Aw come on! Couldn't they have done that before I spend all that time pretending to do analysis  

Yeah, I feel a bit guilty for sending that PM to you asking for your thoughts, now...

1 hour ago, STINK said:

Good luck trying to make the rest of the cycle as productive, everyone that is not Randuir

To be fair, while shortening the cycle is an option, I’d be fine with putting votes for people we’d like Coinshot or lynched later in purple to keep people contributing analysis in the few hours left in this cycle. 

1 hour ago, Randuir said:

To maybe keep a bit of momentum in the game, @Straw, would you consider ending the cycle early if I get over 50% of the available votes before the first 24 hours of the cycle are over?

I’d support this, and would encourage anyone on right now to pop in and vote. 

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We do now know that the Inquisitor was the type to convert Randuir, and decided to attack Fifth this past night. The end of D2 was rather messy, but I feel confident in saying that Rath is not the Inquisitor. Would Randuir have decided to make a Mistborn claim assuring his eventual demise if he had an Inquisitor around to help him survive the lynch? But if the Inquisitor wasn't around, he would have to trust that <40 minutes was enough for people to remove their votes. Voting on Araris may well have provoked a retaliatory vote, but their were plenty of people with one vote Randuir could have gone after instead of starting a new lynch.

Hmm, yeah, the attack on me makes more sense now; I had been pursuing Rand, though I’m not sure if I was actually anywhere close to the Inquisitor, and going by my pre-existing suspicions on people other than Rand as a potential cause of attack is probably reading too deeply into things. I would argue yes, Rand would claim if the Inquisitor was on, especially if the Inquisitor did not have vote manipulation; the bandwagon was swinging towards Rand with not-insignificant force, and the Inquisitor defending Rand too much could have brought both down together. I’ve yet to read the end of Day Two again with the depth it deserves, but would tentatively suggest that the Inquisitor is somewhere among Bard, Devotary and Doc, but that if anyone should be Coinshot it’s inactives or minimal contributors like RayOfSunshine or shanerockes, to prevent a slow endgame if we kill the Inquisitor. 

The real question, now that Rand is dead, is who the Mistborn is. Unless Rand was converted as the Mistborn, they’re still out there and felt not need to counterclaim Rand at the end of yesterday.

[Doc12]

35 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

 I’ve yet to read the end of Day Two again with the depth it deserves, but would tentatively suggest that the Inquisitor is somewhere among Bard, Devotary and Doc, but that if anyone should be Coinshot it’s inactives or minimal contributors like RayOfSunshine or shanerockes, to prevent a slow endgame if we kill the Inquisitor.

I'd like to point out that I was the second vote on Rand on day 2, backing off only when he claimed mistborn to me  

If Rand is indeed evil, I would also soft-clear the person who PM'd me the scan results, the second-to-last link in the PM chain who can reveal themselves if they so choose. To use an argument you did, Rand was suspected but people were willing to keep him around. would I or this person, being the Inquisitor, décide to pass along/reveal the only convert we had so far and focus the entire thread on him when we could just as easily have sat on it? Sounds like a horrible gambit

Of course, the Inquisitor could've been forced into it. The person told me that they were the second to last in the chain and the person they selected to be the last in chain (me) would reveal this in thread. I suppose that someone in this chain could be the Inquisitor unhappily passing along this information, but it would have been easy to stall or pretend to have passed the information on to incriminate another player. To that end, perhaps in the next day cycle we can reveal some links of the chain to soft-clear players. 

In any case, I support ending the cycle early, but if not, I agree that we can name potential lynch/coinshot candidates in purple. @RayOfSunshine, how much attention have you been giving to this game? Numerous people have said you're active around the Shard but quiet here. Ray  

Edited August 3, 2019 by Doc12

[Araris Valerian]

Just noting that I'm here, and that Randuir should die. I might have more later.

[STINK]

15 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

If Rand is indeed evil, I would also soft-clear the person who PM'd me the scan results, the second-to-last link in the PM chain who can reveal themselves if they so choose. To use an argument you did, Rand was suspected but people were willing to keep him around. would I or this person, being the Inquisitor, décide to pass along/reveal the only convert we had so far and focus the entire thread on him when we could just as easily have sat on it? Sounds like a horrible gambit

@RayOfSunshine

I cannot get rid of that mention sadly.

I'd soft-clear no-one but the source of the PM's about Rand's scan. At all.

[DeTess]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

I'd soft-clear no-one but the source of the PM's about Rand's scan. At all.

Can I just say that I whole-heartedly agree. The nature of the chain means that if it ended before Reaching the thread would have been suspicious, so it's quite possible the inquisitor was in the chain, and maybe warned me it would happen before passing it on, leading to me being in a position to seed misinformation ahead of the reveal.

I mean, that might also not be the case, but I'd say it's a possibility you probably shouldn't ignore. Or maybe you should, as I was the one to bring it up in the first place. But then again...  

edit: also, it's a shame BR had to sub out. She's one of the few people here that would remember MR25, not that the elim's play for victory has any sort of relevance in this game.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Randuir
oops, wrong MR; grammar

[Elandera]

2 hours ago, Straw said:

Sure, I'll do that as long as other players support it and I'm around at that time.

I'm okay with that. Randuir

As for thoughts, I should have some more fully formed ones after tonight. Bit of a busy day today. 

EDIT: I first thought I'd soft-clear Doc, I still might, but Stink brings up a good point. I don't know what happened in the PM chain, so he could be the Inquisitor who was kinda backed into a corner. I'd probably put a neutral with village lean on Doc though. Pending more review. 

Edited August 3, 2019 by Elandera

[Straw]

Note: I'm busy right now, so I can't put the new turn up until tomorrow.

[Haelbarde]

I've time to remove my vote from RayOfSunshine and place it on Randuir instead, but any further thoughts will have to come later.