Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[Straw]

The turn is now over!

[Straw]

As the citizens of Luthadel gathered to decide which of them would die, division soon emerged. Many supported killing the mysterious noblewoman, Eliza Deveill. However, suspicion soon shifted to other citizens, before finally settling on Variel. As the mob surrounded Variel and began attacking him, he felt himself finally snap. However, his newly developed abilities came too late to save him from death.

---

StrikerEZ has died! He was an Unsnapped.

Vote Count:

StrikerEZ (4): Doc12, Randuir, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity

Araris Valerian (2): StrikerEZ, Sart

Fifth Scholar (1): Snipexe

Young Bard (1): Araris Valerian

Haelbarde (1): Young Bard

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The Night will end on August 2nd, at 4:00 PM EST.

Everyone posted! Thanks for being so active!

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple)

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill)

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

[+Ark1002]

*Raises hand*

that doesn't count as a misting, does it?

[Young Bard]

Hmmmm... I'll admit, Rand's claim of Mistborn strikes me as a desperate bid to stay alive another cycle to convert another player to me - if I'd been awake before rollover, I'd have probably voted to lynch Rand. Still, since he's alive now, people seem to think there's a way of confirming he's definitely the Mistborn and not the Inquisitor - hopefully that's true, but I'm not sure how to prove that, reviewing the rules. That being said, if Rand were trying to stay alive long enough to get all of their spikes out, Striker being an Unsnapped is probably a pretty big blow to them, which is a relief. For future cycles, Straw, does the Inquisitor need to do the Converting, or can any Convert do it so long as the Inquisitor is alive?

Also, Rand doesn't seem like the kind of person to rickroll people - but I could buy that was a deliberate deception so people would be less likely to believe it was him.

[Fifth Scholar]

(Needless to say, if another Mistborn is out there, a counterclaim should happen immediately—there’s no way there’s two Mistborn in a game this small) 

9 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmmm... I'll admit, Rand's claim of Mistborn strikes me as a desperate bid to stay alive another cycle to convert another player to me - if I'd been awake before rollover, I'd have probably voted to lynch Rand. Still, since he's alive now, people seem to think there's a way of confirming he's definitely the Mistborn and not the Inquisitor - hopefully that's true, but I'm not sure how to prove that, reviewing the rules. That being said, if Rand were trying to stay alive long enough to get all of their spikes out, Striker being an Unsnapped is probably a pretty big blow to them, which is a relief. For future cycles, Straw, does the Inquisitor need to do the Converting, or can any Convert do it so long as the Inquisitor is alive?

It struck me that way at first as well, but all in all, killing our Mistborn for something we could probably just check through Seeking/lack of counterclaiming seemed detrimental to me. Unless ubercopper is set up so that the Inquisitor could deliberately mislead about their role, or there are no Mistborn in the game, I’m fine with what the end of yesterday did, though obviously am disappointed that Striker wasn’t evil. Overall, lynching Mistborn!Rand would have been worse, giving the Inquisitor’s concert access to quite a few potentially dangerous powers. As for conversions, I’m relatively confident that’s something only the Inquisitor does. 

[Straw]

1 hour ago, RayOfSunshine said:

*Raises hand*

that doesn't count as a misting, does it?

Unsnapped don’t count.

44 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Hmmmm... I'll admit, Rand's claim of Mistborn strikes me as a desperate bid to stay alive another cycle to convert another player to me - if I'd been awake before rollover, I'd have probably voted to lynch Rand. Still, since he's alive now, people seem to think there's a way of confirming he's definitely the Mistborn and not the Inquisitor - hopefully that's true, but I'm not sure how to prove that, reviewing the rules. That being said, if Rand were trying to stay alive long enough to get all of their spikes out, Striker being an Unsnapped is probably a pretty big blow to them, which is a relief. For future cycles, Straw, does the Inquisitor need to do the Converting, or can any Convert do it so long as the Inquisitor is alive?

Also, Rand doesn't seem like the kind of person to rickroll people - but I could buy that was a deliberate deception so people would be less likely to believe it was him.

Inquisitors have to be the person converting.

[Young Bard]

Huh. OK, there goes that theory. So long as someone seeks Rand on a cycle where a conversion happens, we know their claim must be genuine. That might be a moot point, though, since there's a decent chance they'll be killed and spiked sometime in the next few cycles.

[Lumgol]

Well, the third Tineye message implies that Stink is Mistborn, and it definitely seemed a lot more like Stink's style of writing than Rand's; however, it could definitely be someone else. So I feel like Rand is probably not the mistborn, judging only by gut feeling. And I think it's quite unlikely that there's more than one mistborn.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Huh. OK, there goes that theory. So long as someone seeks Rand on a cycle where a conversion happens, we know their claim must be genuine. That might be a moot point, though, since there's a decent chance they'll be killed and spiked sometime in the next few cycles.

Unless the Inquisitor has a spike that allows them to choose what a seek reveals, as opposed to a spike that makes a seek return the result of roleless villager, Inquisitor!Rand would not be able to hide from a Seeker.

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

Well, the third Tineye message implies that Stink is Mistborn, and it definitely seemed a lot more like Stink's style of writing than Rand's; however, it could definitely be someone else. So I feel like Rand is probably not the mistborn, judging only by gut feeling. And I think it's quite unlikely that there's more than one mistborn.

How does the third Tineye message imply that Stink, specifically, is the Mistborn? Is there anything other than writing style? If Stink or somebody else other than Randuir actually is the Mistborn, it's probably best to claim in time to give Coinshots a chance to target Randuir and Lurchers/Seekers a chance not to target him.

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Stink or somebody else other than Randuir actually is the Mistborn, it's probably best to claim in time to give Coinshots a chance to target Randuir and Lurchers/Seekers a chance not to target him.

Or alternatively, they could use a  PM chain to pass that info along without revealing themselves, or if the third message wasn't from a mistborn at all, but form a regular tin-eye, they could just use their tin-eye message. Either way, if ti had been a false gambit on my part, there would be a bunch of ways to call me out without revealing unnecessary information to the thread. So, in case future role-claims are made that are actually false, remember that there are generally safe ways to spread the info as long as PM's are open.

As for rick-rolling, it might only very rarely come forward, but I can be a bit of a troll at times  

[Lumgol]

14 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

How does the third Tineye message imply that Stink, specifically, is the Mistborn? Is there anything other than writing style? If Stink or somebody else other than Randuir actually is the Mistborn, it's probably best to claim in time to give Coinshots a chance to target Randuir and Lurchers/Seekers a chance not to target him.

The third Tineye message says that its poster had PM'd everyone, and Stink is the only player who has PM'd me.

I am very well aware, of course, that someone could be imitating Stink, or maybe they PM'd everyone except me and forgot about me  

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

The third Tineye message says that its poster had PM'd everyone, and Stink is the only player who has PM'd me.

I am very well aware, of course, that someone could be imitating Stink, or maybe they PM'd everyone except me and forgot about me

I was definitely interpreting that part of the message as referring to the fact that it is necessary for at least one Tineye to be alive in order for PMs to be sent.

[Lumgol]

Just now, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I was definitely interpreting that part of the message as referring to the fact that it is necessary for at least one Tineye to be alive in order for PMs to be sent.

Hmmmm, I didn't think of it that way. That could definitely be true.

[Straw]

The Night is over!

[Straw]

Lerdar was walking down the streets of Luthadel, and was feeling quite pleased with himself. He had been a mere thief, but now he was making good progress towards a glorious new life! However, Lerdar's arm was suddenly cut by a flying object! After quickly glancing around, Lerdar ran off, happy that he had survived.

---

Fifth Scholar was attacked, but survived!

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The Day will end on August 4th, at 4:00 PM EST.

Elandera is joining the game, and is replacing BrightnessRadiant.

Writeups do not indicate ingame actions, and are just flavor.

Tineye Message #1:

I might reveal myself during the day at one point. If we're having trouble tracking down the Inquisitor or one of his henchmen, we might as well sacrifice me. My powers would be practically useless to the spiked. However, I'd like a general consensus on the issue. What does everyone think?

Tineye Message #2:

Those who trust needlessly do not live very long.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple)

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill)

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

[DeTess]

Heh, fifth scholar *being targeted by*surviving that attack is at the same time a good and a bad thing. The good thing is that it means we didn't lose anyone this night. The bad thing is that I'd hoped to be able to absorb the attack myself, as I had pulled pewter last cycle.

Regarding tin-eye 1's message, I'd say I'm very much against it. Unless either the inquisitor or the henchman is currently under threat, the inquisitor has no great need to continue converting right now, and tin-eyes actually represent something of a problem for the elims. Yhey are generally a pretty bad option to hit with a convert, as they could have set up things in such a way that they get lynched as soon as they stop checking in with their tin-eye messages.

Edited August 2, 2019 by Randuir
clarified the first sentence, as it sounded like I meant that fifth not dying was a bad thing

[Fifth Scholar]

Tineye 1: Please do not reveal. We’re doing fairly well stalling the Inquisitor right now, and I’d like to keep it that way. The longer it takes him to convert, the easier he is to catch. 

Tineye 2: Couldn’t agree more  

As for my attack, NGL, I’m a little surprised I was chosen; if I was the Inquisitor I’d certainly have taken a stab at Rand as Mistborn, which does ring a few alarm bells. Rand, what power do you have this cycle? You should probably be open about it if you’ve publicly claimed, though with no counterclaim yet I’m more willing to trust you, I suppose, than would perhaps otherwise be typical? Anyone who didn’t answer on the Night thread should probably check in here to confirm there’s no counterclaim for Mistborn, though. 

Also, if the Lurcher who saved me could not shoot me a PM, that would be great; converting me would compromise your identity, though I am a little curious why you saved me. (No, I’m not a Thug, which can be proven by lynching me, if it comes to that )

[DeTess]

3 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

As for my attack, NGL, I’m a little surprised I was chosen; if I was the Inquisitor I’d certainly have taken a stab at Rand as Mistborn, which does ring a few alarm bells. Rand, what power do you have this cycle? You should probably be open about it if you’ve publicly claimed, though with no counterclaim yet I’m more willing to trust you, I suppose, than would perhaps otherwise be typical?

I can see why you'd want that claim, but for various reasons I'm mostly going to delay claiming until the cycle after if at all possible. There's a couple of powers I could draw (such as thug last cycle) that lose most of their usability if I claim it immediately. If I'd drawn something like copper that would allow for a quick and easy check if someone manipulated my vote, I'd say so though.

[Fifth Scholar]

2 minutes ago, Randuir said:

I can see why you'd want that claim, but for various reasons I'm mostly going to delay claiming until the cycle after if at all possible. There's a couple of powers I could draw (such as thug last cycle) that lose most of their usability if I claim it immediately. If I'd drawn something like copper that would allow for a quick and easy check if someone manipulated my vote, I'd say so though.

Hmm. While I perhaps understand that, it also seems like a good way to cover for not having any powers at all—you can make up what you had based on results rather than needing to state and then confirm them, no? If we don’t get a counterclaim today, I’d certainly be more willing to trust you, but there’s still the possibility that you were converted as the Mistborn, and then lost your powers, so...call me paranoid, but I’d rather have as much proof as I can.  (I suppose a Seeker result would confirm you as well, though that’s contingent on us actually having one )

[Elandera]

Hey everyone! Glad to have enough time for SE again (though really, it's only been a couple games ). I've skimmed most of the past thread, but not closely enough to assign reads to anyone yet. I'll try to get around to that today.

I lean toward probably giving Fifth a village read for being attacked, and what I remember of his posts.

I do agree with what's been suggested to Tineye 1. Follow Tineye 2's advice and don't trust needlessly.

22 minutes ago, Randuir said:

Unless either the inquisitor or the henchman is currently under threat, the inquisitor has no great need to continue converting right now, and tin-eyes actually represent something of a problem for the elims. Yhey are generally a pretty bad option to hit with a convert, as they could have set up things in such a way that they get lynched as soon as they stop checking in with their tin-eye messages.

Rand, I'm not sure I follow why being a bad convert option is a reason to not claim. What is it about tin that causes a problem for elims?

[Rathmaskal]

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Rand, I'm not sure I follow why being a bad convert option is a reason to not claim. What is it about tin that causes a problem for elims?

I think I'm on the same page as Rand here.  As a tineye player, if you claim, you very well could just be killed since, as mentioned, the village probably gets a bit more use out of PMs and tineye messages than the elims do.  As a player, if you were at least a good role to convert, you'd potentially get to keep playing if you were converted.  I think that's where Rand is going there at least.

[Elandera]

6 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I think I'm on the same page as Rand here.  As a tineye player, if you claim, you very well could just be killed since, as mentioned, the village probably gets a bit more use out of PMs and tineye messages than the elims do.  As a player, if you were at least a good role to convert, you'd potentially get to keep playing if you were converted.  I think that's where Rand is going there at least.

Of course. I forgot PMs relied on having Tineyes alive. Thanks!

[Rathmaskal]

Hi everyone.  Kind of quiet in here.  Hope everyone has fun plans for the weekend.  I miss Aman.

Btw, welcome Elandera.  Was confused for a second...haha

[DeTess]

15 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

I think I'm on the same page as Rand here.  As a tineye player, if you claim, you very well could just be killed since, as mentioned, the village probably gets a bit more use out of PMs and tineye messages than the elims do.  As a player, if you were at least a good role to convert, you'd potentially get to keep playing if you were converted.  I think that's where Rand is going there at least.

In part, but I was also referring to a specific incident from LG32. At least one of the two tin-eyes seems to have claimed to someone. As long as their tin-eye messages keep coming, that person will know they're still good. The moment they stop, that person will know that they've gone evil, and the lynch will follow shortly. The other tin-eye could very well have set up a similar situation, which means that the tin-eyes are essentially 'mines' in the field of conversion that the elims will want to avoid hitting at all cost, because they're duds as far as conversions go. This happened in LG32 where Rae got converted and promptly lynched because she had been a tin-eye. Keeping these 'mines' in means that the elims will ahve to be a lot more careful about who they convert.

Anyway, if the lurcher that protected Fifth was in fact asked by someone else to protect him, I'd prefer it if that information made its way to the thread in some way. Fifth is a pretty decent, though maybe slightly too obvious, candidate for conversion, and if at all possible I'd like to rule out the possibility that it was a wgg.

Anyway, I do have time for some analysis today, so working down from the top of the player list:

Haelbarde

Hael feels like he's been playing things relatively safe so far. That's not to say that their contributions haven't been useful, it's just that it's been mostly informative stuff regarding previous games, and exhortations towards activity, with the occasional comment on reads made by other people. I don't find this incredibly suspicious, but I do hope to see more original content from Hael. The one thing that does strike me as somewhat suspicious is their apology for their vote on Lumgol. Pre-emptive apologies for votes always feel wrong to me. As a villager, you should be voting on a suspicion, and therefore there is no reason to apologize, while an elim would know that they where voting on someone innocent, which might prompt the urge to apologize.

Overall conclusion: very slight inquisitor lean

Burnt Spaghetti

Burnt has posted very little so far, though if the PM I got from her is anything to go by, she's probably rather active in PM's. I haven't seen nearly enough from her to form any sort of read, however.

Snipexe

I've seen very little from Snip-exe so far. he engaged somewhat in the lynch discussion of D1, but only popped up for a quick drive-by vote D2. That vote and its reasons itself are rather interesting though. If snipexe is an elim, then even with little time I'd have expected him to have been informed about the current state of the vote, and because of that he could have sued a somewhat similar argument to end up voting on me for a potentially far easier lynch.

Overall a Neutral read.

Araris Valerian

Araris posts are interesting and sensible for the most parts, but there are two posts that stood out to me:

Araris mentions how he'd expect himself to act if he wast the inquisitor a number of times. The first time it is to highlight that inquisitor!araris and village!Araris would do the same thing in that particular situation, and the second time is as part of an accusation of bard, while also neatly showing a contrast between what inquisitor!araris would do and what this-game!araris was doing (namely going after a hard target over a soft target). Maybe I'm reading a bit too much into it, but to me the second mention in particular feels like Araris is trying to highlight how he's currently playing like villager!araris and not like inquisitor!araris.

slight inquisitor lean overall

Lumgol

I mentioned before that Lumgol's vote on Aman stood out to me in a bad way, because she basically stated 'the village probably has more vote manip, so losing Aman wouldn't hurt too much'. The rest of her posts are rather NAI sounding, though her defense of bard for voting on her probably means that they are not both elims.

rayofsunshine(formerly known as Ax's Boyfriend)

He has posted very little, but based on him catching my cunningly laid trap and the question regarding whether an unsnapped counted as a misting suggest that he's following along with the game. There's nowhere near enough content for me to form a sold opinion, and more importantly, it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon, which is worrisome.

@RayOfSunshine, who do you think is the most suspicious player right now? And who would be the least?

shanerockes

Shanerockes is in pretty much the same boat as rayofsunshine read-wise, though their posts suggest a bit more of a defensive attitude. @shanerockes, could you answer the question I asked of ray too? Who do you think is the most and the least suspicious right now?

Doc12 

Doc12 hasn't posted too much yet either, but there's some votes and the like to look at at least. As I highlighted with hael, the apologies accompanying Doc's votes look odd to me. I'd have to check back whether that's a normal pattern for doc or not. Overall I'm not leaning particularly hard one way or another on Doc right now, but I have little doubt that as the game continues Doc will post more and their alignment will eventually become clear.

Devotary of Spontaneity

I'm still getting the same vibe of Devotary being somewhat distant to the game that I got before, with her more commenting on things that are going on, than proving her own analysis. Therefore, I'm about as suspicious of her as I am of Hael right now.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, who would you say you think is the most likely to be an elim, and who do you reckon is the most likely to be village right now?

*more coming in a bit*

Rathmaskal 

Rathmaksal was complaining about my lack of long content. i reckon this should appease them somewhat

Anyway, Rath has been quite active, but I haven't seen much that makes me lean one way or another right now. This post:

contains pretty much the same behavior as I highlighted as potentially suspicious with Araris, with the added bonus of rathmaskal calling it out themselves. I'm not sure what to think of that. On the one hand, if elim!rath recognized the way that post could be interpreted, they might have decided not to word it that way at all. On the other hand, it seems Rath is somewhat self-conscious about how their posts are viewed, which i'd see as more of an elim-trait.

Overall, I'm fairly Neutral on Rath as things stand right now.

Young Bard

I mentioned before that the speed with which they where ruling people out from being the inquisitor seemed to be a bit recklessly quick for village!bard, while it could be a pocketing attempt by elim!bard. On the whole though, Bard doesn't seem afraid to put his cards on the table and share his reads, rather than keeping things close to his chest. I'm leaning very slightly vilalge on him for that.

Sart

Sart has been fairly inactive too, and there isn't anything I'd consider strongly alignment indicative in his posts. @Sart, why did you vote on Araris?

STINK

STINK is acting like STINK.

last edit, I promise:

I skipped over fifth because I didn't want to read all his posts again I firmly believe he isn't the inquisitor, and will re-evaluate his posts for signs of being converted in a cycle or two if I'ms till alive. I also skipped over BR/Elandera. I'll get to them as soon as Elandera has posted a bit more.

Edited August 3, 2019 by Randuir

[Haelbarde]

3 hours ago, Randuir said:

The one thign thatd eos strike me as somewhat suspicious is their apology for their vote on Lumgol. Pre-emptive apologies for votes always feel wrong to me. As a villager, you should be voting on a suspicion, and therefore there is no reason to apologize, while an elim would know that they where voting on someone innocent, which might prompt the urge to apologize.

I apologise oft and easily, sorry. More the issue there though was I'm happier when I've got theories and solid suspicions backing up my vote. Right at the start though, there's no real information, so there's no foundation to vote on. I think it's important to actually put down votes as much as possible, though I also dislike being entirely random about it, which is why I didn't vote last cycle. So I apologised for putting a vote on someone I thought was most likely not evil for a super small thing that someone else had vaguely suggested, because it's then on me for removing someone from the game right at the start for little reason.

---

Currently in the process of reading back through everything, making some notes. Taking longer than I expected, so I'm posting this now, and I'll either append further thoughts to this, or post again if someone posts beforehand.

Edit:

So, @Burnt Spaghetti, you've not posted since Day 1. Show yourself  

@Snipexe We've not heard from you since your post Day 2 where you promised us more thoughts. Hadn't your time freed up after finishing the project? You managed 5 posts day 1. 

@shanerockes You've posted 3 times Two reactive posts Day 1, and a random musing about the inquisitor day 2. Can you not put any votes down at all? What are your thoughts about the mistborn claim?

@Sart Again, two posts Day 1, one post Day 2, and the day 2 was just a poke vote you didn't come back and do anything further with. Same question, I guess. Thoughts on the mistborn claim?

I don't think I'm actually suspicious of any of you those, but please contribute a bit more to the thread.

Stink hasn't contributed much to thread, but I get the impression he's still active in PMs, not that he's talking to me - our PM sorta fizzled and died. None of it was game relevant though. I'd be of a mind to lynch him if he's be super active without actually contributing anything useful at all...

@RayOfSunshine You've contributed basically nothing, but are active on the forum. No thoughts at all? Again, thoughts on the Mistborn claim?

Edited August 3, 2019 by Haelbarde