Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[StrikerEZ]

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Try putting it in your browser . (the whole thing)

You know, I should’ve seen that coming. 

Anyway, sorry for the inactivity guys. I haven’t been doing that well mentally lately, so this game has been low on my priority list. I’ve got some time right now to go back through and see if anyone’s activity D1/N1 seems suspicious to me (or if anyone’s activity has seemed to suddenly changed D2). Just wanted to get this update post in first. 

[BrightnessRadiant]

Sorry guys, I've been dealing with some really rough stuff irl. I'll see if I can make a post later tonight. 

[Young Bard]

1 hour ago, RayOfSunshine said:

Just in case you haven't done this yourself

I have no idea what this means

there's clearly watch? but what does v=dQw4w9WgXcQ mean?

...*sigh* I really should have seen that coming. Well played, whoever did this.

Anyway - analysis time - hopefully something here sparks a conversation (preferably on someone who is not me).

Hael - I was trying to remember Hael's playstyle from when he was here ages ago, and it seemed kind of different, but the more I think about it, the more likely it is that my memory is bad, this is a somewhat unusual game so everyone is playing differently, and Hael's just changed as a person over the last two years and come back to a slightly less familiar community, so it makes sense they'd play a little differently. That being said, the other thing that drew my eye towards Hael is that I got the sense that some of the things that they were saying were the kind of things an Elim would say to try and appear village.

"Don't roleclaim immediately" - in response to someone having already roleclaimed when it was already too late, so makes little sense for a villager to say at that point in time, but an Eliminator could be trying to say something that sounds villager-y, in which case, it makes sense to say something like that. Similarly with "RIP Aman. Really wish you hadn't died..."

I was considering voting on someone else this cycle, mainly because Hael is a returning player and I feel like that's a poor welcome back present, but I don't think there's a candidate yet who I feel a sufficient reason to vote on. Running through the rest of the list quickly:

Rand - I always struggle to read Rand, and this cycle is no exception. However, Rand's said he's busy with his Masters thesis, and I'm inclined to think that if he were the Inquisitor, he'd likely have passed the role over to a pinch-hitter since being an Eliminator tends to take up even more of your time.

Burnt - Is also a returning player, same as Hael. I can't rule them out, but there's also nothing that distinctively makes me trust them yet either. Also, they're fun to talk to in PM's, which is a disincentive as well.

Striker - Has also said they're busy due to IRL/mental health stuff. Plus, their actions seemed pretty villagery to me. In the last MR, they seemed to be slightly more cautious and reserved with their words (which makes sense as Eliminator behaviour), which I don't see here, and I'm inclined to believe they're village. Moderate trust read.

Fifth - someone (I forget who, and I'm too lazy to go through and figure it out) pointed out that the Inquisitor would be unlikely to have made the plays he did at the end of D1, which I'm inclined to agree with, but out of the surviving players in the game, Fifth is a player who might take that gamble for exactly that reason. So, slight trust read - would be more, except for paranoia.

So, I'm slightly stuck. I might look over shanerockes a little later, but I just don't think there's enough there to really show whether shane's an Eliminator one way or the other.

[Fifth Scholar]

Gah, sorry everyone for posting and then kind of leaving this to sit. I’d intended to get around to this both last night and earlier today, but had other concerns and commitments distracting me. Hopefully this post will make up for some of that. 

I will note, to begin with, that I’m far less comfortable with both Bard and Randuir than I was at the beginning of the day, even, but that my non-Inquisitor reads on Devotary and Hael are mostly holding. That’s a bit generic, but I hope to explain it a bit later into this post. Onto analysis! 

First, I’m growing increasingly uncomfortable with Randuir, enough to merit a vote. His first set of posts are pretty much fine, with nothing much noteworthy or suspicious other than slightly odd tone, such as the weird kind-of joke he made about Devotary, which felt off and disconnected from the rest of his post. My issues start here: 

Quote

Shanerockes, can you explain the reasoning behind this vote? It seems Aman voted on you merely because of activity, while this revenge vote seems odd at first glance. It seems designed to save your own life and discourage people from voting on you (because if they did, they'd risk being voted on in retaliation), rather than trying to discover information. Though this first cycle is somewhat unusual given the nature of this game, this vote still stands out to me as being seemingly motivated by a very non-village sentiment, being survival at any cost.

In my mind, this is a good way of expressing villager-y sentiments without needing to say anything too controversial; I agree with the basic logic present here, but would argue that an Elim has just as much incentive to post this as a villager, and that the phrasing about the retaliatory vote scaring people away from voting for a player is wrong at best and deceptively misleading at worst; if anything, it’s only called down greater attention on Shane’s head than he would have been under otherwise. Just as Araris is faulting Bard for essentially looking for a target, I feel the rhetoric Randuir employs here is out of step with many of his villager tells, and represents the pursuit of any object which may feel like a lynchable offence. 

Quote

I definitely understand Aman's arguments for making the game more interesting, but they are NAI. Likewise, I can see where fifth is coming from with his arguments against it, but I'd say its likewise NAI from him. It could be fifth being a worried villager, or the inquisitor trying to appear very villager. Either way, I'm against lynching  Aman until C3 at the earliest because he talks a lot, giving us stuff to look at if he flips evil, and he generally encourages participation by other people with pointed questions which is very useful for the village.

I would like to go on record here that Fifth is giving me a bit of a bad gut feeling. I think it's coming from the way he seemed to overemphasize him checking aspects of the inquisitors powers with Straw, but I don't know, and I don't generally act on gut feelings.

I'm going to vote on Rayofsunshine @RayOfSunshine. They are active on the Shard, just not in this thread so I'm having trouble seeing why they haven't checked in so far.

My read on this post flip-flop-flips between paragraphs; the first paragraph is again a fairly safe statement to make from either alignment, but my issue lies in calling both Aman and I’s statements NAI—I would have taken a different approach if I’d been the Inquisitor yesterday, and besides, such blanket statements tend to diminish or dismiss the actual AI content which can be gleaned from debates such as the one Aman and I had. 

The second paragraph reads more village—while he’s wrong, I find villagers are more likely to be looking for and noticing smaller things like what he mentioned. 

Finally, an inactive vote fairly late into the cycle is...unhelpful, and is an easy way to dodge having to give a real opinion on anybody. This vote stuck despite Rand being around at or near end of day, when he would have needed to take an actual position in the whole Aman/me/Lumgol mess. Instead, by opting to stay out of it, he reduced our ability to evaluate his stances, provided less AI content, and washed his hands of any villagers that died from that lynch. 

Further analysis of Rand, and also Snip and Araris, forthcoming. I just ran out of this chunk of my free time and want to post something, as I haven’t since the beginning of the cycle. 

[DeTess]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Finally, an inactive vote fairly late into the cycle is...unhelpful, and is an easy way to dodge having to give a real opinion on anybody. This vote stuck despite Rand being around at or near end of day, when he would have needed to take an actual position in the whole Aman/me/Lumgol mess. Instead, by opting to stay out of it, he reduced our ability to evaluate his stances, provided less AI content, and washed his hands of any villagers that died from that lynch. 

Actually, I wasn't really around at the end of that day, at least not in the sense that I could have kept up with that crazy set of votes near the end. I was DM-ing a game of dungeons and dragon at the time, and while I was able to check the thread during short breaks, that's not teh same as being actively engaged with everything that was happenign aroudn turnover.

Regarding the whole Aman/Fifth/Lumgol mess, I think I made my position clear on that, namely that I didn't think a double-lynch was a good idea, and that given the situation at that time I'd far prefer the lynch of an inactive over that of an active player, especially one like Aman that promotes activity in others as well. I saw no reason at the time to be suspicious of Lumgol, and I don't trust my gut enough to follow it into a vote on a very active and productive villager D1, and I was fairly certain that Aman was a villager, so the stance I took, namely 'none of the above' sounds quite reasonable to me.

more to come in a bit, I've finished my studying for today and should be able to invest some time in analysis now.

edit:

Okay, starting with some general reads. Fifth is probably village. Him moving things closer to a tie during the end of D1 is not really elim-like behaviour at all. That's also just about the only person I've got anywhere near a solid read on. 

There where a couple of other things that stood out to me. One was Bard's reads list on N1. Dismissing a bunch of people as not suspicious due to gut reads feels... reckless? I've stated some suspicion of Devotary before, and I'm not really leaning one way or another on BR and Araris. @Young Bard, do you still stand by that set of reads?

Another things was striker's 'calling' of Aman's bluff. I'm kinda having trouble seeing the village logic behind that, but I could see an elim going 'sure, I'll take it' on Aman's offered sacrifice.

For the same reason, I'm somewhat suspicious of Lumgol now. The post in which they voted on Aman had some other interesting bits in it as well, including a rather casual assumption that the village would have more vote manipulation than Aman, so the loss/transfer of his wouldn't matter as much. Lumgol's comment on tin-eyes making good converts is also somewhat interesting, as it was my experience in LG32 that the opposite is the case, with tin-eyes being able to arrange things in such a way that converting them will result in them getting lynched without ever having to publicly claim.

 

Edited August 1, 2019 by Randuir

[Rathmaskal]

Vote Count:

• Rand (1) - Fift
• Hael (1) - Bard
• Bard (1) - Stin, Arar, Rath
• Arar (1) - Sart
• Devo (1) - Arar
• Shan (1) - Rand

(As I was typing this up, I kept seeing 4-letter name abbreviations, so I took creative liberty with Araris, Stink, Fifth, shane, and Devotary)

Time left in cycle: ~5 hours?

Yeah, we need more votes people.  I'm sure Alvron is giggling with glee at the potential this lynch has though.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Rathmaskal
Had to actually put the counts in...and missing paren

[Haelbarde]

22 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Vote Count:

• Rand (1) - Fift
• Hael (1) - Bard
• Bard (1) - Stin, Arar, Rath
• Arar (1) - Sart
• Devo (1) - Arar
• Shan (1) - Rand

(As I was typing this up, I kept seeing 4-letter name abbreviations, so I took creative liberty with Araris, Stink, Fifth, shane, and Devotary)

Time left in cycle: ~5 hours?

Yeah, we need more votes people.  I'm sure Alvron is giggling with glee at the potential this lynch has though.

Currently this lynch is excessively boring - no one dies unless there are two votes on them.

15 hours ago, Young Bard said:

"Don't roleclaim immediately" - in response to someone having already roleclaimed when it was already too late, so makes little sense for a villager to say at that point in time, but an Eliminator could be trying to say something that sounds villager-y, in which case, it makes sense to say something like that. Similarly with "RIP Aman. Really wish you hadn't died..."

I've always cared about being careful with sharing information, and as much one thinks that saying you're vanilla (assuming truthful, but that was my gut feeling) seems insignificant, it helps the spiked team find useful roles, which is a bad thing. I'd already commented about it earlier in the game (I think?), so I was a little annoyed they just posted that before anything at all. 

I think the activity of this cycle is evidence enough for why it would have been nice to keep Aman alive.

If you're curious about my playstyle from last time I played, the closest game to this I've played was LG22, where I was Padan Fain, a conversion faction. After the eliminators got quite the beating in the early game, I became a larger threat. 

---

Sorry everyone, been a super busy two days, and I agreed an hour ago to run an impromptu D&D game in 8.5 hours, most of which I will be sleeping through. I feel bad for not voting, but if I were put a vote, it would be with little basis as I've not been able to give the game much thought. I'm currently leaning village on Fifth and Bard, but that's about the extent of what I have to say. If some convinces me to put a vote down in the next 5 minutes, then I will, but otherwise I need to sleep and won't be back on till rollover.

[Araris Valerian]

Here's a marked up player list. People in italics haven't posted, and people in bold are people I don't plan on voting for this cycle, for various reasons. 

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)
2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)
3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)
4. StrikerEZ (Variel)
5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)
6. Lumgol (Teraval)
7. Ray of Sunshine (Voidapple)
8. shanerockes (Bill)
9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)
10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill)
11. BrightnessRadiant (Doreen)
12. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)
13. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)
14. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)
15. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)
16. Sart (TBA)
17. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

Here are the ones that are left. It totally could be that the inquisitor and convert aren't in here, but I'd wager at least one of them is.

1. shanerockes (Bill)
2. Randuir (Eliza Deveill)
3. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)
4. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)
5. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)
6. Sart (TBA)
7. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

I'm fine with lynching anyone from this list right now. I don't think we should lynch 2 people though, since a longer game gives us more time to hunt out convert/inquisitor interactions. Since nobody wants to jump on my vote on Devotary, I'll switch back to Bard. I'm slightly worried that elim!Rath voted for Bard simply because I already expressed suspicion of him, making it a safe vote that wouldn't lead to a lynch.

[Doc12]

The voting is confusing this cycle. I get it - with only two eliminators at the moment and only the first day to go on, people are trying to pick up on the smallest things. Still, the vote on Bard came and went pretty quickly. Stink voted just because, and removed his vote a bit after, Araris jumped on Bard at a misreading, and just as quickly jumped on Devotary after Bard responded. Rath admitted a placeholder vote and tried to justify it with some criteria that could just as easily apply to any other person in the game, including me. I don't think there's any coordination to this, just a bunch of trigger-happy villagers that are still unwilling to actually commit to anything. I don't find anyone particularly suspicious at the moment, nor have I been able to perceive any evidence of cooperation, but I'm going to put down a vote on an existing lynch so this cycle isn't wasted.

General rambling here, 

Looking at the activity for the cycle so far, I'm wondering how active the Inquisitor would have to be - obviously they had to be active enough to choose a convert last night.. Looking back at the night cycle, I'm looking at RayofSunshine for showing up only in the night, but that's only circumstantial evidence.

@Young Bard, you said last night that your list of likely inquisitors that you wanted to analyze had Lum at the front, but your suspicion today falls on Hael - was your suspicion of Lum totally based on the misreading of spikes for lives? Also, you are very gracious to not consider me suspicious  (Might be a bit too early for ruling people out, ain't it?) 

@Randuir, you were a good ally and a terrifying enemy in previous games, and I'm used to having to squint to slowly process your posts. Perhaps it's just me, but I'm with Fifth in that you're playing very conservatively, making safe votes on inactives and giving statements that are generally with the village sentiment. You've posted a set of reads after that vote, but haven't changed your vote from the inactive vote on Shane. I get that you're busy on your master's thesis - mad respect to you for that and if that's the real cause for your distracted attitude, I apologize, but I firmly believe you can afford to actually vote on people you find suspicious. Right now, I'm putting a vote on Randuir. (Hey, if you're village, I'm sorry, but you get more time to work on your thesis? )

Araris posted while I was still writing this up, and as of now Bard is in the lead with two votes. @Araris Valerian- your last statement was about a fear of elim!Rath voting with you - why didn't you vote on him then? 

Vote Count:

• Rand (2) - Fifth, Doc
• Hael (1) - Bard
• Bard (2) - Stink, Rath, Araris
• Araris (1) - Sart
• Devotary (1) - Arar
• Shane (1) - Rand

Someone better vote to untie the lynch~

Goodnight!

Edited August 1, 2019 by Doc12

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

@Araris Valerian- your last statement was about a fear of elim!Rath voting with you - why didn't you vote on him then? 

Mostly because I feel like we need pressure of a lynch at this point. 

7 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

• Rand (2) - Fifth, Doc
• Hael (1) - Bard
• Bard (2) - Stink, Rath, Araris
• Araris (1) - Sart
• Shane (1) - Rand

You forgot to take my vote off of Devotary, probably because of the abominable abbreviation Rath used. If you want a 4-letter abbreviation, call me Fade or Rari, both of which are canonical .

[DeTess]

40 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

 

@Randuir, you were a good ally and a terrifying enemy in previous games, and I'm used to having to squint to slowly process your posts. Perhaps it's just me, but I'm with Fifth in that you're playing very conservatively, making safe votes on inactives and giving statements that are generally with the village sentiment. You've posted a set of reads after that vote, but haven't changed your vote from the inactive vote on Shane. I get that you're busy on your master's thesis - mad respect to you for that and if that's the real cause for your distracted attitude, I apologize, but I firmly believe you can afford to actually vote on people you find suspicious. Right now, I'm putting a vote on Randuir. (Hey, if you're village, I'm sorry, but you get more time to work on your thesis? )

That's the thing though. I don't really have any solid suspicions, at least not ones that are more solid than why i initially voted for Shanerockes. I'm considering moving to either Lumgol or Striker, but I'd like to see if they have any responses.

[StrikerEZ]

I don’t have much time, and I probably won’t be on again until after rollover, so I’m gonna vote on Araris. Not for any particular reason right now, just because I don’t really suspect either of the other two lynch candidates and I don’t like how much Araris has been controlling the lynch today. Plus, I like chaos. 

[Rathmaskal]

OK folks, so I decided to ignore content for a second and do some activity/posting analysis.  I did this in a previous game at one point and it seemed to go over OK....plus is revives the spirit of Aman's post counting that was going on.  So, here we go:

s - short comment game analysis (includes posts that are just questions for GM)
n - short comment non-game related
m - medium comment game related
l - long comment game related
p - player analysis post
a - heavy player analysis post
r - RP post only
k - I don't know how to classify STINK's posts
v - vote or retraction post (should be removed for overall counts)

Aman (40|RIP) - ssssslvssvssssvssmlslssssssssmvsmmnmsssssvsvssv|RIP
Striker (6|1|2) - ssvssss|s|ssv
Araris (9|1|10) - svssvssssssv|s|svsmmvssssmvs
Fifth (7|2|2) - lsvmsllsv|sm|slv
Rand (11|4|4) - smsssmvsssss|ssns|mvmls
Bard (3|1|2) - ssvs|m|slv
Snipexe (5|0|0) - rssss||
Lum (2|0|1) - mlv||m
Burnt (2|0|0) - ms||
Hael (6|1|2) - lsvsvsvss|s|sm
Devotary (6|1|3) - mmmmsvsv|m|mss
Doc (2|0|1) - rmv||lv
Rath (5|2|3) - ssmss|mn|mvsl
shanerocks (2|0|1) - svsv||s
STINK (4|1|2) - kkssv|s|svsv
Brightness (12|4|2) - mssssmmsmnns|mssn|sn
Sart (1|0|1) - sv||sv
Ray (0|2|1) - |ss|s

So, the things that stick out to me here:

• Rand seems to have decidedly less long content than I'm used to
• It's going to be a while before anyone catches up to Aman
• Lum seems to be a bit less active than I'm used to
• Unless I've missed posts (which it feels like I possibly did?) from Sart, the votes to post count is rather impressive
• Araris has seemed much more active D2 than D1...but I think that's mostly because Aman is gone and Brightness has had much lower activity.

Votes:
Bard (2) - STINK, Araris, Rath, Araris
Shane (1) - Rand
Devotary (0) - Araris
Araris (2) - Sart, Striker
Hael (1) - Bard
Rand (2) - Fifth, Doc

[Fifth Scholar]

Right. I’m coming back here, and after finishing my look at Rand, am comfortable leaving my vote where it is. The depth of his reads and analysis isn’t what it normally is, and while part of that is likely busy-ness, another aspect of it may well be him attempting to coast by as the Inquisitor. 

I stand by my non-Inquisitor reads on Bard, Devotary, and Hael, and would perhaps add Araris to this list. Lumgol, as Rath mentioned, is unusually quiet and should perhaps be Coinshot. I would like @Devotary of Spontaneity, @BrightnessRadiant, @Lumgol, @shanerockes, @STINK, @RayOfSunshine and @Haelbarde to weigh in with votes, though, if possible. Also, as a Seeker presumably could not check Ark’s vanilla claim, that might also be a good target for a Coinshot? I’m thinking our Seekers and Coinshots should start focusing on the less active players, as they’re more likely to dodge the noose and they’re much harder to analyse. I think the general activity needs to go up, though, so we have the ability to perform any kind of analysis at all. 

Rath, that collation is useful. I’d be wary of anyone there with an excess of S’s or N’s, as they may be trying to keep up a seemingly active front while not saying much of substance—clearly, that’s not true for every post, but it’s something to note, and makes me want to look more closely at Striker, Snipexe and Ark. 

[Rathmaskal]

OK, I've been waffling back and forth after my analysis above, but I'm going to have to go with it:

Bard

Rand

I feel a bit more strongly about Rand than Bard after that look, and I'm heading out for the last of the cycle, so I want to at least leave things with a lynch.

[Snipexe]

Sigh, sorry I got caught up in a big project that I just finished.

Part of the reason I didn’t really vote last cycle was because I didn’t really understand some of the conversion stuff Aman was talking about, and I wanted to to try and spend my time getting my head around it rather then analyzing posts for suspicions. (Still a bit confused not going to lie )

So right now I’m thinking about good conversion targets, and who would make the most sense as a convert in this game. My current best guess would maybe be someone like Fifth just because of his general skill, but the issue is that because of this, he is usually being closely examined by at least one other player. I still however think in general having an active player as a first convert makes sense. It gives you someone to strategize with, someone with connections already built before they were converted that you can capitalize on. I’d expect that later conversions will be less active players than tend to slip under the radar, giving the elims some insurance.

At the moment I’m going to go ahead and put down a vote on Fifth Scholar just so I can have a vote out there. This is easily subject to change, and likely will when I get a chance to look over today’s thread again.

[DeTess]

Warning: I'm currently quite tired, so this is going to be rambly and/or sounding a bit annoyed when i don't mean to. My apologies in advance.

33 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Right. I’m coming back here, and after finishing my look at Rand, am comfortable leaving my vote where it is. The depth of his reads and analysis isn’t what it normally is, and while part of that is likely busy-ness, another aspect of it may well be him attempting to coast by as the Inquisitor. 

I'm sorry but this is something that is just not true AFAIK. When have I been known to coast for alignment indicative reasons? Irrespective of my alignment, I try to do the best analysis I can, because irrespective of my alignment, that is the best way to win. If I'm not doing as much analysis as I normally do, then that's because I just don't have the time to do so, and there's nothing alignment indicative about it.

Actually, screw it. I might as well bite the elim night attack for this. I'm Mistborn. That third tin-eye message was mine. That should lay tor est any of the fears that I am the inquisitor.

Anyway, I'm going to move my vote to StrikerEZ. I didn't particularly like his vote on Aman, and his vote on Araris 'for the chaos' doesn't make much sense to me right now either. Given that the elim team is only 2 people right now, 'controlling the lynch' is hardly alignment indicative. If anything, ti indicates that other people aren't as involved as they could be.

[Araris Valerian]

Hmm. I'm not sure what I think about having 2 votes on myself for the stated reasons of being active and participating in the lynch. That being said, @Randuir, I think that Striker is less likely to be an elim based on that post. It just doesn't seem well thought out (no offense), which runs contrary to my expectations of the elims. Now, if Bard or Rand are elims, then I'd lynch Striker in a heartbeat, because his vote on me could be an attempt to protect the Inquisitor/convert. Consequently, I'm happy with my current vote on Bard. 

As for Randuir's claim, we should be able to verify that with a Seeker, assuming he doesn't die.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Rand(3): Ffth, Doc1, Rath
Bard(2): Rari, Devo
Rari(2): Sart, Stkr
Hael(1): Bard
Stkr(1): Rand
Ffth(1): Snip

This lynch is now looking less likely to result in multiple deaths, though it still has the potential to be tied and I think we should avoid that this cycle. There is of course a 50% chance the elims have a Soother, but even if that is the case they may want to hold off from using it.

And now we have Randuir claiming Mistborn, which is unlikely to get a counterclaim in the next half-hour. Inquisitor!Rand probably could have gotten out of the lynch without claiming anything especially if their team has vote manipulation. That does leave the question of who a different lynch would be. I don't believe Araris is the Inquisitor, though I could see him doing something like pushing the lynch towards a three way tie last cycle if he were. Striker in his only elim game, did have a tendency to be very protective and make unexplained votes in order to counter a lynch on a teammate, and as Araris says the most likely candidates for that would be Rand and Bard. I'm also somewhat concerned by how easily votes have been slipping off the latter, so I will put my vote on Bard. I don't like how close this is coming to a tied lynch though.

44 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Also, as a Seeker presumably could not check Ark’s vanilla claim, that might also be a good target for a Coinshot? I’m thinking our Seekers and Coinshots should start focusing on the less active players, as they’re more likely to dodge the noose and they’re much harder to analyse. I think the general activity needs to go up, though, so we have the ability to perform any kind of analysis at all. 

As Coinshots only get one chance to attack someone, they are less able to perform their role of cleaning up suspects who are bypassed by the lynch. It's probably not worthwhile to use up their only kill just because someone is inactive. Seekers though are more powerful than usual, and the Inquisitor will at some point have to give up a Spike that confounds Seeking, unless they die before then.

[Araris Valerian]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Inquisitor!Rand probably could have gotten out of the lynch without claiming anything especially if their team has vote manipulation.

Good point. There is a 50% chance that the elims have a Soother, discounting any potential UberPowers the Inquisitor has.

[Fifth Scholar]

Hmm. Fine, Rand, though part of me thinks the Elims will kill or convert you if you’re telling the truth, and that we’re making a big mistake if you’re lying. All Seekers, please Seek him tonight, and Smokers please don’t interfere. 

2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

And now we have Randuir claiming Mistborn, which is unlikely to get a counterclaim in the next half-hour. Inquisitor!Rand probably could have gotten out of the lynch without claiming anything especially if their team has vote manipulation.

I disagree here—depending on how other votes fell, and on the activity of his teammate, it might have been harder for him to wriggle out of things. This is essentially a surefire way to buy him two more cycles of life if he is evil. 

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I don't believe Araris is the Inquisitor, though I could see him doing something like pushing the lynch towards a three way tie last cycle if he were. Striker in his only elim game, did have a tendency to be very protective and make unexplained votes in order to counter a lynch on a teammate, and as Araris says the most likely candidates for that would be Rand and Bard. I'm also somewhat concerned by how easily votes have been slipping off the latter, so I will put my vote on Bard. I don't like how close this is coming to a tied lynch though.

Huh. I’m generally confused where the Bard suspicion is coming from, other than what looked to be a genuine misreading of Lumgol’s post. At the risk of creating too much of a tie, StrikerEZ, as I’ve more suspicion of him at this point than Bard, and he may be the only person on my suspect list close to being lynched other than Rand, and the price of a failed lynch on him is too high. 

[Doc12]

I am annoyed. It be 3:30 a.m. and I can't sleep because Rand decided to claim to me in a PM half an hour ago  Storm SE  

14 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Rand(3): Ffth, Doc1, Rath
Bard(2): Rari, Devo
Rari(2): Sart, Stkr
Hael(1): Bard
Stkr(1): Rand
Ffth(1): Snip

These abbrievations are getting out of hand  There is a very big difference between the First Doctor and the Twelfth, and I will not have you confusing which one I am  Doc or Doc12 to you, please!

in any case, 

In light of his recent claim, Randuir. I expect you to have some way to prove it this night cycle, to all of us - in light of that, perhaps a misting could protect Rand tonight?

As to who I'd move the vote to, the easiest would be Araris or Bard. I would feel pretty rotten for voting on Bard while he was asleep though, and Araris seems earnest to me. @Devotary of Spontaneity the votes have been slipping off Bard because Stink and Rath didn't really have much of a reason on Bard at all. I think, so that's not really a reason to suspect Bard. 

I really, really hate having to do this. Bard, if you're village, and no one shows up to save you, I'm so, so sorry. 

edit: All of that was typed up before Fifth posted and changed his vote. In the light of that, I don't have to condemn Bard to save Rand from the lynch! At this point, I'm willing to sit this out and let the three way tie play out and see what results we get. But as I said above, I'm inclined to keep Bard and Araris alive for the moment, and so I'll throw a vote at Striker. 

Bard (2) - STINK, Araris, Rath, Araris, Devotary, 
Araris (2) - Sart, Striker
Hael (1) - Bard
Rand (1) - Fifth, Doc, Rath
Fifth (1) - Snipexe
Striker (3) - Rand, Fifth, Doc
Shane (0) - Rand
Devotary (0) - Araris

Storm you all, now it's 4 a.m. and I have a date in 6 hours I need to be rested for XD

Goodnight!

Edited August 1, 2019 by Doc12

[Fifth Scholar]

@Randuir What is your current Mistborn power? Not Thug, I presume?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Bard(2): Rari, Devo
Rari(2): Sart, Stkr
Stkr(3): Rand, Ffth, Dc12
Hael(1): Bard
Ffth(1): Snip
Rand(1): Rath

We're still one soothe away from a three way tie, and I suppose not everyone defending Bard can be evil. I can switch from Bard to Striker.

[Straw]

9 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I am annoyed. It be 3:30 a.m. and I can't sleep because Rand decided to claim to me in a PM half an hour ago  Storm SE  

These abbrievations are getting out of hand  There is a very big difference between the First Doctor and the Twelfth, and I will not have you confusing which one I am  Doc or Doc12 to you, please!

in any case, 

In light of his recent claim, Randuir. I expect you to have some way to prove it this night cycle, to all of us - in light of that, perhaps a misting could protect Rand tonight?

As to who I'd move the vote to, the easiest would be Araris or Bard. I would feel pretty rotten for voting on Bard while he was asleep though, and Araris seems earnest to me. @Devotary of Spontaneity the votes have been slipping off Bard because Stink and Rath didn't really have much of a reason on Bard at all. I think, so that's not really a reason to suspect Bard. 

I really, really hate having to do this. Bard, if you're village, and no one shows up to save you, I'm so, so sorry. 

edit: All of that was typed up before Fifth posted and changed his vote. In the light of that, I don't have to condemn Bard to save Rand from the lynch! At this point, I'm willing to sit this out and let the three way tie play out and see what results we get. But as I said above, I'm inclined to keep Bard and Araris alive for the moment, and so I'll throw a vote at Striker. 

Bard (2) - STINK, Araris, Rath, Araris, Devotary, 
Araris (2) - Sart, Striker
Hael (1) - Bard
Rand (1) - Fifth, Doc, Rath
Fifth (1) - Snipexe
Striker (3) - Rand, Fifth, Doc
Shane (0) - Rand
Devotary (0) - Araris

Storm you all, now it's 4 a.m. and I have a date in 6 hours I need to be rested for XD

Goodnight!

BTW, please make new posts for new votes.