Mid-Range Game 36: The Northern Wind

[TheMightyLopen]

12 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Oh huh, the game has started. Neat.

Minor village read on Burnt and Araris for reasons.

No real suspects yet, so I guess I'll just prod people and see what I can find. @TheMightyLopen TheMightyLopen, would you elaborate on why you don't think villagers will utilize sabotage? Obviously it's risky since it brings one of the elims win conditions a step closer, but I guess it doesn't feel that obvious to me that a village!engineer would never choose to sabotage things.

I mean, it just seems too risky to me, at least early on. I guess you have a point that we can't automatically assume an engineer is evil just because they sabotage something, but like Devotary said, it would require a village engineer to be very confident they'd hit an elim with it to try it, so I'd expect a solid explanation if that happened. Another point why I wouldn't advise it is that we won't get the alignment of those hospitalized, so it's not really a great informational tool. Once we get close to the end of the game though, I'd absolutely be fine with a village engineer going after someone they think is evil(assuming there's enough airship parts still working where it won't make a difference).

It mostly doesn't matter anymore, since Rand said we won't be able to tell between the faction ability or an engineer sabotage. I was just thinking that if an engineer was hospitalized and there was evidence that the elims had an engineer, we could have more confidence that that player was an elim and use that information to adjust our reads.

[Stick.]

11 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Minor village read on Burnt and Araris for reasons.

Gut?

11 hours ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Obviously it's risky since it brings one of the elims win conditions a step closer, but I guess it doesn't feel that obvious to me that a village!engineer would never choose to sabotage things.

The only reasonable scenarios where I see a villager sabotaging an airship part is if they know for sure that doing so will hospitalise one or more SICSS players (like if somebody working in Internal Affairs locks up a potential/confirmed elim up in the brig and a village engineer sabotages the brig, consequently hospitalising the elim), or if they feel like Sabotaging the Aviar Holder and gifting everybody useless birds. I don't see the former happening until the later cycles and even then there's only a slim chance as it requires close coordination (i.e. PMs). 

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Nine airship parts is a lot if the elims don't have an engineer in addition to the option to forgo an attack in favour of a sabotage. Still, even with a dead or nonexistent elim engineer and plenty of functioning airship parts, it's dangerous for a village engineer to sabotage something as it takes twice as much work to fix the part afterwards. The most reasonable cases I can think of are if an engineer is sure that there is only one remaining [Airship dependent role] and that they're evil, or an engineer and internal affairs team up to hospitalise someone instead of letting a trapper take responsibility. Both of those require a high degree of confidence that the benefits will outweigh the damage.

basically. I should really read the whole thread first instead of responding to posts as I go through it. xD What exactly do you mean why the bolded part, though?

9 hours ago, Randuir said:

There is no vote minimum and ties are resolved using random chance

Ooo exciting. Right now we've got Aman, Lopen, and Lum all up for the lynch  

3 hours ago, Mark IV said:

I find it more likely that the SITC might have a Doctor and the NITC might have a Trapper (of course, there might be more than one of each, but we don't know that either). Ican't shake off the feeling that having the distribution like that would make more sense, because having a trapper just grants the SITC 2 kills per day. In a game of 17 people, to me, that feels like a lot

From the Rules (TM): "Trapper: You’ve been hired by the NITC to help their expedition." If the village doesn't have a Trapper I would be surprised, to say the least.:P I think whether the elims have a Doctor or not depends on their number, but it's a reasonable assumption to make. Of course, after the last LG I know not to let role distributions fool me.:P They can be tricky. 

3 hours ago, Mark IV said:

When do you guys think the bird cage will get sabotaged? Sooner or later? Personally, I feel that while it is an appealing target, the Sak and the Kokerlii are better birds for mid/end game situations. 

Sabotaging it later (if need be at all) seems to be the more advantageous course of action for the elims to take. They can use the Kokerlii early on in the game for protection against scans and the Sak too for protection. The Twins they'll probably use to gain trust from the villagers, which is extremely useful in both the early and late stages of the game for the elims. 

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think it'll probably get sabotaged pretty early. It would make sense for the elims to gather up all the Aviars in the first couple cycles, then sabotage the holding area so that none of the village can get any birds for the rest of the game

3 Aviars are up for being loaned off every cycle, and are granted randomly to the players that request for one. So the elims don't really have a guarantee of getting one, but it'll cost an action regardless. I doubt they'd all go after the birds in the first couple of cycles and risk wasting their actions. Plus, sabotaging it would give out birds to everyone randomly, two of which would be Aviars. Those could go to villagers for all they know. The saboteur does get one, but that's all. 

[StrikerEZ]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

3 Aviars are up for being loaned off every cycle, and are granted randomly to the players that request for one. So the elims don't really have a guarantee of getting one, but it'll cost an action regardless. I doubt they'd all go after the birds in the first couple of cycles and risk wasting their actions. Plus, sabotaging it would give out birds to everyone randomly, two of which would be Aviars. Those could go to villagers for all they know. The saboteur does get one, but that's all. 

Oh, I guess I thought that you could request a specific bird. The rules don’t specifically say that though, I think....

@Randuir Can you request for a specific bird? Also, if the holding area is sabotaged, do people who requested Aviars the same cycle the holding area is sabotaged get Aviars, or are they randomized between all the players?

Oh, what happens if two people request the same Aviar?

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Oh, I guess I thought that you could request a specific bird. The rules don’t specifically say that though, I think....

Huh, you're right. Don't know why but I just assumed all you can do is go like 'hey I want an Aviar' and then you may or may not get one of the Aviar lolol

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Huh, you're right. Don't know why but I just assumed all you can do is go like 'hey I want an Aviar' and then you may or may not get one of the Aviar lolol

I mean, that would certainly be a fun mechanic. I guess it could go either way with the way the rules are written right now. I guess now we just have to wait for Randuir to see my question. 

[Young Bard]

22 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Oh, what happens if two people request the same Aviar?

It's possible for two people to get the same Aviar, however, no more than 3 Aviar are leant out in a given cycle, and preference will go towards more unique requests first - otherwise, it's a random roll to see who gets an Aviar and who doesn't.

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

It's possible for two people to get the same Aviar, however, no more than 3 Aviar are leant out in a given cycle, and preference will go towards more unique requests first - otherwise, it's a random roll to see who gets an Aviar and who doesn't.

So...theoretically, if only three people requested Aviar, and they all only requested Kukupa, they’d all get Kukupa?

[DeTess]

40 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Randuir Can you request for a specific bird? Also, if the holding area is sabotaged, do people who requested Aviars the same cycle the holding area is sabotaged get Aviars, or are they randomized between all the players?

You have to specify which aviar you want when you request one.

5 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

So...theoretically, if only three people requested Aviar, and they all only requested Kukupa, they’d all get Kukupa?

Yep, that's how it'd work. To give a slightly more involved example: if 1 person asked for a kokerlii and 3 asked for a sak, the persons asking for a sak would be guaranteed to get it, while 2 of the 3 asking for a sak would get a sak, while the last one would get a bald eagle or a toucan or something.

Edited July 14, 2019 by Randuir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

4 hours ago, Mark IV said:

Upon rereading the rules and thinking a little on what Devotary says here: 

I find it more likely that the SITC might have a Doctor and the NITC might have a Trapper (of course, there might be more than one of each, but we don't know that either). Ican't shake off the feeling that having the distribution like that would make more sense, because having a trapper just grants the SITC 2 kills per day. In a game of 17 people, to me, that feels like a lot.

On the other hand, with a doctor on their side, they can resuscitate any of their members in the hospital, which necessitates a trapper for the village. It seems like it fits, but it's hardly the only possibility. Just one possibility that I thought of. 

On that note, as Devotary said, it seems quite easy at the moment to figure out the identities of the trapper(s) and the doctor(s). I'm not quite sure what to do about that or whether we should just leave it as it is. 

When do you guys think the bird cage will get sabotaged? Sooner or later? Personally, I feel that while it is an appealing target, the Sak and the Kokerlii are better birds for mid/end game situations. 

 

I don't think there would be a single, elim, doctor, as that would mean villagers could never leave the hospital except possibly as cover for healing elims, and hospitalisation would  end up being a slightly more vocal death. It's entirely possible that nobody would ever leave the hospital. @Randuir, what happens if a doctor and a trapper both target the same hospitalised patient? I'm guessing permanent hospitalisation, either by the trapper taking effect first, or by the trapper's attack cutting the patient's brief stint of health short. 

Sak seems to be decently useful to those without anything better to do, but while the Aviary still stands, would require the holder to have spent an action to protect against the possibility that they'll be attacked next cycle, which requires a good deal of prescience/paranoia. I'm guessing Kokerlii blocks navigator and possibly biologist scans, which is useful at any time for an elim planning on attacking someone or sabotaging something but would require a villager to waste an action just to hide their role. If the Aviary is sabotaged, both birds become far more valuable to both sides until the Aviary is repaired.  

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

basically. I should really read the whole thread first instead of responding to posts as I go through it. xD What exactly do you mean why the bolded part, though?

Say we have two navigators, as indicated by the fact that two different people's action targets are revealed in the writeup. If one of those navigators is lynched and revealed to be a villager, a village engineer might decide to sabotage the bridge to prevent the other, plausibly evil, navigator from using it, and possibly identifying them if they were in the bridge at the time and can't vote without revealing their role. It usually won't be obvious whether there are two of a given airship role though, I think internal affairs is the only other one that gives evidence to others.

[Elandera]

Now that I've read the rules and caught up on the thread so far, here are my comments.

I don't think we should put too much stock in strict role distribution (doctors/trappers being more likely to be N- or SITC) simply because either alignment could have it, and it could be balanced either way. For all we know, there's one on each team.

The chance of a WGG is suuuuper high in this game, so I wouldn't consider anyone hospitalized for certain good or evil. Also, the hospital doc could be a useful resource in passing information, especially with limited PMs. I could also see it being easily used by elims as an opportunity to pocket. Mostly what I'm getting at, is be just as suspicious of anyone in the hospital as you would be in the regular thread.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

3 Aviars are up for being loaned off every cycle, and are granted randomly to the players that request for one. So the elims don't really have a guarantee of getting one, but it'll cost an action regardless. I doubt they'd all go after the birds in the first couple of cycles and risk wasting their actions. Plus, sabotaging it would give out birds to everyone randomly, two of which would be Aviars. Those could go to villagers for all they know. The saboteur does get one, but that's all. 

I do think it's quite probable elims will go for birds, as they likely have at least one roleless and/or they have someone who doesn't have an action that would be more priority than possibly setting up a PM. Additionally, getting the twin birds would be helpful if they do send someone into the hospital, as that would keep communication open between the elim doc and the person going to the hospital.

I'll try to get a vote in later, but at the moment I have a very slight suspicious read of Burnt and Stick. Burnt because they seemed to bring up, yet downplay the potential for a WGG, and Stick because of the part I quoted. Neither of these seem to be good reasons to dismiss someone active on D1.

[Alvron]

13 hours ago, Randuir said:

There is no vote minimum and ties are resolved using random chance.

The Gods of Luck and Chance approve this message.  (I really should get a pic or meme for this.)

1 hour ago, Randuir said:

You have to specify which aviar you want when you request one.

Yep, that's how it'd work. To give a slightly more involved example: if 1 person asked for a kokerlii and 3 asked for a sak, the persons asking for a sak would be guaranteed to get it, while 2 of the 3 asking for a sak would get a sak, while the last one would get a bald eagle or a toucan or something.

Can we request the Bald Eagle?

39 minutes ago, Elandera said:

The chance of a WGG is suuuuper high in this game, so I wouldn't consider anyone hospitalized for certain good or evil. Also, the hospital doc could be a useful resource in passing information, especially with limited PMs. I could also see it being easily used by elims as an opportunity to pocket. Mostly what I'm getting at, is be just as suspicious of anyone in the hospital as you would be in the regular thread.

Agreed, this game is almost begging for a WGG.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to find the Elims have a Doctor just to make it more likely to happen but if it did, I wouldn't expect it until mid game given how much discussion there has already been about it.

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

I don't think there would be a single, elim, doctor, as that would mean villagers could never leave the hospital except possibly as cover for healing elims, and hospitalisation would  end up being a slightly more vocal death. It's entirely possible that nobody would ever leave the hospital. @Randuir, what happens if a doctor and a trapper both target the same hospitalised patient? I'm guessing permanent hospitalisation, either by the trapper taking effect first, or by the trapper's attack cutting the patient's brief stint of health short. 

Someone targeted by both the doctor and the trapper while in the hospital would be permanently hospitalized.

8 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Can we request the Bald Eagle?

Ehm, sure? As long as you're aware that bald eagles have no in-game effect you're free to ask for one  

Anyway, there's a little under 12 hours left in the cycle, so make sure to get your orders in, everyone!

(on a related note, am I as GM allowed to do a big @mention-list just to give those that haven't checked in yet a poke?)

[Burnt Spaghetti]

53 minutes ago, Elandera said:

 I'll try to get a vote in later, but at the moment I have a very slight suspicious read of Burnt and Stick. Burnt because they seemed to bring up, yet downplay the potential for a WGG, and Stick because of the part I quoted. Neither of these seem to be good reasons to dismiss someone active on D1.

Fair enough

I gotcha rand

So far we've heard nothing from   @Amanuensis  @shanerockes  @Ax's Boyfriend @xinoehp512 Y'all need to say something. Cycle 1 doesnt mean you get to sit back and do nothing

Ventyl, brightness, and lumgol have posted but only really to say hi- would like to hear more from these as well.

 

Current votes:

Aman (1): Araris

Lumgol (1): Lopen

Lopen (1): Mrake

[Alvron]

9 minutes ago, Randuir said:

(on a related note, am I as GM allowed to do a big @mention-list just to give those that haven't checked in yet a poke?)

As long as all players are treated equally, you can do almost anything you want.  I would caution you against it unless you either do it every cycle (so as to be fair to those that don't check in later cycles) or you only do it for the first cycle or two and make it clear you're only doing it those times.

Fifth is the one you should be asking about this as we are players and some of us wouldn't mind if some others didn't check in. Elims not checking in is good for village, village not checking in is good for elims, that sort of thing.

Edit: And Burnt makes my post pointless.   

[Burnt Spaghetti]

2 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Edit: And Burnt makes my post pointless.   

You're welcome

 

[DrakeMarshall]

16 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Trappers are the only ones who can ensure that hospitalised patients never leave, so if multiple people get attacked in the same cycle and then one of them is attacked again, that should tell us which one was the Trapper's target even if we don't get informed in the writeup. Doing so would narrow down the Trapper's identity though, between being present in the Hospital doc and not showing up to post in thread. The same is true for a Doctor who wishes to heal a patient. I don't think the best way to hide the identities of these players is to have them not visit the hospital/visit infrequently, or to ask several people to visit the hospital every day as cover, but I don't have any good ideas either.

Nine airship parts is a lot if the elims don't have an engineer in addition to the option to forgo an attack in favour of a sabotage. Still, even with a dead or nonexistent elim engineer and plenty of functioning airship parts, it's dangerous for a village engineer to sabotage something as it takes twice as much work to fix the part afterwards. The most reasonable cases I can think of are if an engineer is sure that there is only one remaining [Airship dependent role] and that they're evil, or an engineer and internal affairs team up to hospitalise someone instead of letting a trapper take responsibility. Both of those require a high degree of confidence that the benefits will outweigh the damage.

Yep, those are pretty much the two cases of village!sabotage I thought of too 

I didn’t notice that it takes 2 repairs to counter one sabotage. That makes village!sabotage considerably less viable.

But, I think having the option will still be useful, if admittedly less useful than I initially thought.

4 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

I mean, it just seems too risky to me, at least early on. I guess you have a point that we can't automatically assume an engineer is evil just because they sabotage something, but like Devotary said, it would require a village engineer to be very confident they'd hit an elim with it to try it, so I'd expect a solid explanation if that happened. Another point why I wouldn't advise it is that we won't get the alignment of those hospitalized, so it's not really a great informational tool. Once we get close to the end of the game though, I'd absolutely be fine with a village engineer going after someone they think is evil(assuming there's enough airship parts still working where it won't make a difference).

It mostly doesn't matter anymore, since Rand said we won't be able to tell between the faction ability or an engineer sabotage. I was just thinking that if an engineer was hospitalized and there was evidence that the elims had an engineer, we could have more confidence that that player was an elim and use that information to adjust our reads.

Cool. My curiousity is sated. Lopen.

Next up, xino @xinoehp512, are you there?

4 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Gut?

From the Rules (TM): "Trapper: You’ve been hired by the NITC to help their expedition." If the village doesn't have a Trapper I would be surprised, to say the least.:P I think whether the elims have a Doctor or not depends on their number, but it's a reasonable assumption to make. Of course, after the last LG I know not to let role distributions fool me.:P They can be tricky. 

1. Not quite. From my very limited impression of Araris, I feel that elim!Araris would have been less likely to poke Aman. Burnt’s thoughts about hospitalization and the likelihood that a hospitalized person is an elim seemed pretty genuine and helpful (although I am aware that it is very possible to fabricate that sort of thing). I believe my reasoning is kind of weak, but hey, it’s still reasoning and at this stage in the game I’ll take what I can get.

2. Are you saying that because the rules say this role was hired by the NITC, it’s more likely to be village?

4 hours ago, Randuir said:

You have to specify which aviar you want when you request one.

Yep, that's how it'd work. To give a slightly more involved example: if 1 person asked for a kokerlii and 3 asked for a sak, the persons asking for a sak would be guaranteed to get it, while 2 of the 3 asking for a sak would get a sak, while the last one would get a bald eagle or a toucan or something.

Yeah, I had to specify a bird when I put in my order for it to be valid.

For reference, I’m asking for a Kokerlii. I doubt I could win the draw on a more useful bird so I might as well just inconvenience the eliminators (I don’t really see a use for Kokerlii except for the elim team).

Sure I might just be an eliminator double bluffing you, but would I really bring that possibility up if I were? I probably would but whatever

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Now that I've read the rules and caught up on the thread so far, here are my comments.

I don't think we should put too much stock in strict role distribution (doctors/trappers being more likely to be N- or SITC) simply because either alignment could have it, and it could be balanced either way. For all we know, there's one on each team.

The chance of a WGG is suuuuper high in this game, so I wouldn't consider anyone hospitalized for certain good or evil. Also, the hospital doc could be a useful resource in passing information, especially with limited PMs. I could also see it being easily used by elims as an opportunity to pocket. Mostly what I'm getting at, is be just as suspicious of anyone in the hospital as you would be in the regular thread.

I do think it's quite probable elims will go for birds, as they likely have at least one roleless and/or they have someone who doesn't have an action that would be more priority than possibly setting up a PM. Additionally, getting the twin birds would be helpful if they do send someone into the hospital, as that would keep communication open between the elim doc and the person going to the hospital.

I'll try to get a vote in later, but at the moment I have a very slight suspicious read of Burnt and Stick. Burnt because they seemed to bring up, yet downplay the potential for a WGG, and Stick because of the part I quoted. Neither of these seem to be good reasons to dismiss someone active on D1.

Slight village read from this post, for reasons (TM).

[StrikerEZ]

16 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Yeah, I had to specify a bird when I put in my order for it to be valid.

For reference, I’m asking for a Kokerlii. I doubt I could win the draw on a more useful bird so I might as well just inconvenience the eliminators (I don’t really see a use for Kokerlii except for the elim team).

Sure I might just be an eliminator double bluffing you, but would I really bring that possibility up if I were? I

I mean, you could be bringing up the possibility of a double bluff specifically because an elim probably wouldn't do that, but then that just leads into an insane cycle of IKYK's. So I'm gonna leave this alone and let you be, whether you're a villager or an elim pulling off a really good bluff.

[+Ark1002]

Arr K. Thousantoo coughed. It was fake, of course. He was Mistborn, and had agelessness.

But that didn't stop the need. He leaned on his cane, going through the ship.

He had been asleep for most of the action, and hadn't woken up until just now.

Now to figure out what's going on...

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay finally here and going to catch up on the thread. Listened to the audio book of 6th of the dusk because I didn't want spoilers. Sorry for being late to the party but here's a bird I painted while listening to the story. Hopefully it'll help make up for my absence a little. Haha (not sure why the image is sideways) 

Edited July 15, 2019 by BrightnessRadiant

[StrikerEZ]

@BrightnessRadiant That’s an amazing birb!!!! 

Is this our first game together since I’ve gotten back? Probably.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the the dilemma of trappers and doctors visiting the hospital? Do you think there’s anyone that would make a good lynch instead of just letting the Gods of Luck and Chance decide?

Edited July 15, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[TheMightyLopen]

Well...I don't see any good lynch targets. I'd prefer we had a lynch, but there has been very little discussion so far, so I've got zero suspicions. I'll leave my vote on Lumgol I suppose, since I don't want Aman lynched C1, and also the more players that are tied the higher the chance we've got an elim in there, which means they'll have to take some action to protect themselves.

I'm going to bed soon, so unless something happens in the next 30 minutes, this'll be my last post.

[Elandera]

I'll go ahead and place a vote on Shanerockes

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, I did a quick vote count to see who I should vote on since I'll be going to sleep soon and probably won't wake up again until after rollover.

Vote count:

(1) Aman: Araris,
(1) Lumgol: Lopen,
(1) Xino: Drake,
(1) Shanerockes: Elandera,

So, assuming 3/4 elims, it seems pretty likely that there's at least one elim in there. I think Lum's the only player who has actually posted. I don't want to break the tie and end up lynching a villager, but I don't think anyone here has done anything that makes them deserving of getting lynched. And I don't want to vote on anyone not already up for lynch because nothing has really stood out as too fishy to me yet. 

Whelp, I'm not a huge fan of tied lynches, so I'm gonna vote on Aman because he hasn't even been on the Shard since the game's started. It's not the best reason, but it's the only one I've got.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot to tag the others. @Lumgol @xinoehp512 @shanerockes care to explain why you've been on the Shard but haven't posted your thoughts on the game? EDIT2: Recently, in the case of Lum. (This is why you don't make posts when you're tired)

Edited July 15, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Burnt Spaghetti]

Hm its interesting that you point out that amans not been online at all. Whereas the other no-posters actually have been...  my experience playing with aman was that if he was around and realised the game had started then he'd be quite active and vocal, so it actually concerns me moe that xeno and shane have been on and havent posted.

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Burnt Spaghetti said:

Hm its interesting that you point out that amans not been online at all. Whereas the other no-posters actually have been...  my experience playing with aman was that if he was around and realised the game had started then he'd be quite active and vocal, so it actually concerns me moe that xeno and shane have been on and havent posted.

I guess I should’ve explained myself better. 

My thought process was that Aman hasn’t been on for almost a week now (plus I haven’t seen him in the Discord either), so he’s like a true inactive. He could be an elim, and even if he isn’t, then at least we’ve already got rid of an inactive so the elims can’t save hospitalizing him for later. I’ll still be up for a few more minutes, so I’m down for changing my vote if you can tear apart my reasoning.