Long Game 57: The Tower of Nebrask

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Hmm, okay these books and new lines are very interesting. I will take a book, @Sart may I tell everyone the effect of a book?

[Sart]

3 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Hmm, okay these books and new lines are very interesting. I will take a book, @Sart may I tell everyone the effect of a book?

You may. Just remember, it's one action to take a book, and another action to read the book.

[CadCom]

May I suggest that if you take a book, it may be in our best interest to share which book we are taking? Just so multiple people don't go for the same book?

Alright, so I know that at least one person is wanting to know who used Lines of Warding last night. Seeing as I was one of the people who revealed that lines were being used, I'll share what I feel comfortable sharing. For privacy, I will wait until later in the cycle before I share the names of who used the lines, just in case they don't want their name revealed. (Though I have no idea why they wouldn't want that. 

So, I was the one who claimed to Xino that I would use a Line of Warding. So that was the first one. Then, as the night went on, after I mentioned that people could reach out to me or anyone else, I had someone discuss with me whether they or me should put in a second action if no one else had about 2 to 3 hours before rollover. So I also told this person that I had put in the first action. 

Then I had two people reach out to me stating that they would be willing to protect. So I had 2 people reach out, and one who was willing if no one else could. I got a bit afraid that at least one of the people I was discussing with was an eliminator, and since 2 people knew that I was going to be protecting, and two more people reached out to me, I decided it would be best to let all three, just in case one was lying and didn't actually protect. 

So then, my post in thread asking if we wanted a third was just a cover-up for the elims, making them still think they had a chance to stop if they happened to be one of the people I had been PMing with, in hopes of giving us a chance to trap someone in the act of trying to let an elim into camp, I never had any intentions of having the fourth person, (who I had declared as the third person in thread) put in an LoW. I was not on with the ability to post near the end of the cycle, so I could not mention to the people who, at the end of the cycle mentioned that they were considering using a LoW to add extra protection in the thread. 

Anyway. I promised a player analysis as well. I am working on that, and will either edit it into this post or make a new post when I am finished. 

MEGA ED1T: 

Player Analysis: Be forewarned, quite a bit of my analysis comes from PMs, but I'll share that which I think is important. 

Striker:  I've got a neutral reading on Striker for now. On one side, they are the only one who reached out to me asking about my unusual behavior in going for a bribe, in the open, on D1, which makes me lean village, but they also stated something else about the chalk that i get a bad gut reading from, despite the comment not sounding super evil. So 

Devotary: They wanted me to post who My contacts were last minute at the end of last cycle. This makes me lean village on Devotary, as they also expressed worry that I could die without being able to share that information. It makes me lean village, but it also gives me a fading suspicion that they were just trying to find out who to roleblock, and they decided 30 seconds to a minute gave them enough time to change an action if I were to post in thread. It's more of a fear because Devotary has fooled me in the past than anything else. 

Xino: I'm inclined to trust Xino for now, because he willingly claimed to the thread, like I had asked him to, that I would be putting in an action. Plus we've had some additional PM interaction that makes me lean village on Xino. 

Butt: Butt hasn't had a whole lot of contribution, but I'm inclined to lean village on them. They reached out to apologize about leaving their vote on me, and provided additional information that gives me a pretty strong village read. 

Araris: Araris's posts of substance are mostly only during D1, with not much during the night cycle, but their interest seems to be aligned with the village. It's too early to really tell though, as many people align with the village. 

CadCom: 

Lumgol: Lum has very little content, so It's hard to put them anywhere except neutral. The expressed willingness to change their action last night is a point in their favor. Though this was mentioned after we already had enough people claimed to be helping with the LoW, so it doesn't necessarily mean anything much.  

Ventyl: It appears Ventyl has adopted a non-PM policy, at least with me. Which is totally fine. Everyone has different strategies. Anyways. It appears his different posts are analysis posts with regards to the mechanics. I can't really give any elim points or village points to Ventyl

Alv:  Alv... With a gun... Alv has a gun.

Shqueeves: Though he doesn't have many posts in thread yet, I do have a few PM's with him. the combinations of his PMs and his posts in thread come off to me as someone who really wants to help the village out. 

Snip: I might be being a bit hypocritical with my analysis of Snip, but I find him the most suspicious so far. The first reason is I got a bad gut read off his first post. It came very soon after a vote was placed on him for inactivity. It was as if he was monitoring the thread but not saying anything. I know there's no way to know this for sure, but the tone that I read it as, plus the timing of the post just gave me a bad read. Then the bad read was continued going forward when he stated during the night that he did want at least 3 people to put an action down, but as far as I know, he didn't claim to anyone to want to help.  We are still early in the cycle, so I'll have a good amount of time to go about changing this if something does come up, but for now, my vote will stay on Snip.

----

With regards to the new books, I'm certain that many of those books are important, so we should definitely try to pick some of these up. But we also need to make sure we are stockpiled on Acid and Chalk so we can keep defending camp. If we lynch another villager, we will need to use three defenses tonight to protect the camp, unless we decide to just let the first attack slip by. I would prefer to wait to let an attack slip though. And whenever we do let it slip, It should be all out. (For example) if we have to defend for 5, and we don't think we'll be able to do it, we could all just choose not to defend for a cycle, so we can stock up for the next cycle and have plenty of strength to defend one cycle longer. 

I will be leaving on vacation some time between tonight, and tomorrow afternoon, so it's likely that my post/ reply style will change to being much more brief, however, I don't plan on going entirely inactive. That is the reason I've been trying to so much of my thoughts out early on in the cycle. 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Araris Valerian]

I'm sort of curious about the Book of the Bouncer, and probably will go for that. I have a lantern, so I'll be able to read it during the Night, supposing I don't get lynched today.

On that topic, here's a player list:

1. Butt Ad Venture: Nathaniel
2. Cadmium Compounder: Caden
3. Alvron: Blackbane
4. Araris Valerian: Elysian
5. StrikerEZ: Wardell
6. Devotary of Spontaneity: Jenoue
7. Xinoehp52: Ecnelis
8. Lumgol: Character TBD
9. Ventyl: Jerm Apple
10. Shqueeves: Jeeves
11. Snipexe: Snip

People in bold I'm probably not going to vote on this cycle. Those people are listed roughly in increasing order of trust. Venture because I don't think an elim would have done what he did last cycle, and Alvron because of a PM we have. CadCom could be elim, but having a player alive and helping coordinate us all not dying is useful regardless of his alignment.

Italicized names are people that didn't grab an item during the first cycle. @StrikerEZ, @xinoehp512, @Ventyl, @Lumgol, it would be nice to hear from all you guys whether you tried to grab an item, forgot to submit an order, or did something else.

I think for now I'll put a vote on Lumgol. There's still not much to go off of, but this should have a better than random chance of being an elim.

Also, perhaps we should consider discussing whether to reveal our Night actions. Devotary sort of brought up already that it could be risky, letting the elims know who doesn't have chalk. But we might be able to narrow down who was able to submit the kill action.

[Snipexe]

3 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Alright, so I know that at least one person is wanting to know who used Lines of Warding last night. Seeing as I was one of the people who revealed that lines were being used, I'll share what I feel comfortable sharing. For privacy, I will wait until later in the cycle before I share the names of who used the lines, just in case they don't want their name revealed. (Though I have no idea why they wouldn't want that. 

So, I was the one who claimed to Xino that I would use a Line of Warding. So that was the first one. Then, as the night went on, after I mentioned that people could reach out to me or anyone else, I had someone discuss with me whether they or me should put in a second action if no one else had about 2 to 3 hours before rollover. So I also told this person that I had put in the first action. 

Then I had two people reach out to me stating that they would be willing to protect. So I had 2 people reach out, and one who was willing if no one else could. I got a bit afraid that at least one of the people I was discussing with was an eliminator, and since 2 people knew that I was going to be protecting, and two more people reached out to me, I decided it would be best to let all three, just in case one was lying and didn't actually protect. 

So then, my post in thread asking if we wanted a third was just a cover-up for the elims, making them still think they had a chance to stop if they happened to be one of the people I had been PMing with, in hopes of giving us a chance to trap someone in the act of trying to let an elim into camp, I never had any intentions of having the fourth person, (who I had declared as the third person in thread) put in an LoW. I was not on with the ability to post near the end of the cycle, so I could not mention to the people who, at the end of the cycle mentioned that they were considering using a LoW to add extra protection in the thread. 

 

Before I respond to your post, may I ask did you, or did you not draw a line of warding?

[StrikerEZ]

I’ll admit that I actually just completely forgot to put actions in for the past two cycles (I’ve already submitted my action for this cycle before I forget again). I had been thinking about grabbing the gun D1, which would’ve been fun, but I forgot to get back in before rollover to put the order in. N1 I was planning on grabbing a piece of chalk, but I forgot again. 

Anyway, I should probably do a reread of everything before I give more of my thoughts, but I’ll go ahead and give some quick thoughts on each player right now in case I don’t get back on later. 

1. StrikerEZ: Obviously village
2. Devotary of Spontaneity: Something about her seems off in PMs. I can’t quite put my finger on it, though. Neutral, leaning elim. 
3. Xinoehp52: I literally have no idea what he could be, which seems to be my normal reaction to him at this point. Neutral. 
4. Butt Ad Venture: I haven’t been paying much attention to him, so neutral. 
5. Araris Valerian: It’d be pretty easy as an elim to put blame on people who didn’t take an item D1 and try to get them lynched...besides his most recent post, nothing’s really seemed off to me, so neutral. 
6. Cadmium Compounder: It’s ironic that he doesn’t trust me because of our PMs because they’re the main reason I trust him. Slight village. 
7. Lumgol: Something about our PMs feels off to me. I’d rather keep the details private because I don’t like to reveal info from PMs, but trust me when I say that they’re really odd. Slight elim. 
8. Ventyl: He’s been putting about the same amount of effort in thread as he has his past couple games, so he’s either a genius or he’s village again. 
9. Alvron: Alv is either super pocketing me in our PMs, or he’s actually trustworthy. Slight village. 
10. Shqueeves: I haven’t seen him say much, and I haven’t PM’d him yet, so neutral. 
11. Snipexe: Not quite sure why CadCom is voting on him honestly. I didn’t see anything weird with his posts, but that could just be because I hardly ever remember his posts right now. 

I guess if I had to vote right now, I’d vote on Devotary. I’d rather not vote on someone who already has a vote on them because I don’t want to start a bandwagon, otherwise I’d vote on Lum, and I think we should be putting more pressure on more people to provide content for the thread. 

[Araris Valerian]

@StrikerEZ, just to clarify, I'm not trying to put blame on people that didn't grab an item. To be honest, I'd bet that villagers would be slightly more likely to not get an item over elims, both because elims tend to be more reliable about submitting actions and because they could coordinate among themselves. I have very little read on any non-bold player in my list, and picked Lumgol largely at random. We just need to start from somewhere, and our D1 didn't give me too much to work with.

[StrikerEZ]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

@StrikerEZ, just to clarify, I'm not trying to put blame on people that didn't grab an item. To be honest, I'd bet that villagers would be slightly more likely to not get an item over elims, both because elims tend to be more reliable about submitting actions and because they could coordinate among themselves. I have very little read on any non-bold player in my list, and picked Lumgol largely at random. We just need to start from somewhere, and our D1 didn't give me too much to work with.

Okay, sorry for the misunderstanding. That does actually make sense, though I’d say it isn’t that unlikely that one of the people who didn’t take an item D1 is in fact a Forgotten. 

Well, seeing as I’d have voted on Lum had you not already done so, I guess your random choice was a good one.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

It will be fascinating to see how the books improve their corresponding lines, and whether that improvement justifies using chalk to do something other than draw a Line of Warding. I'm hoping for multi-use chalk. The Book of the Sentry is probably the most useful, so I'd like to take that one.

4 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Alright, so I know that at least one person is wanting to know who used Lines of Warding last night. Seeing as I was one of the people who revealed that lines were being used, I'll share what I feel comfortable sharing. For privacy, I will wait until later in the cycle before I share the names of who used the lines, just in case they don't want their name revealed. (Though I have no idea why they wouldn't want that. 

So, I was the one who claimed to Xino that I would use a Line of Warding. So that was the first one. Then, as the night went on, after I mentioned that people could reach out to me or anyone else, I had someone discuss with me whether they or me should put in a second action if no one else had about 2 to 3 hours before rollover. So I also told this person that I had put in the first action. 

Then I had two people reach out to me stating that they would be willing to protect. So I had 2 people reach out, and one who was willing if no one else could. I got a bit afraid that at least one of the people I was discussing with was an eliminator, and since 2 people knew that I was going to be protecting, and two more people reached out to me, I decided it would be best to let all three, just in case one was lying and didn't actually protect. 

So then, my post in thread asking if we wanted a third was just a cover-up for the elims, making them still think they had a chance to stop if they happened to be one of the people I had been PMing with, in hopes of giving us a chance to trap someone in the act of trying to let an elim into camp, I never had any intentions of having the fourth person, (who I had declared as the third person in thread) put in an LoW. I was not on with the ability to post near the end of the cycle, so I could not mention to the people who, at the end of the cycle mentioned that they were considering using a LoW to add extra protection in the thread. 

So you believe that there were three Lines of Warding drawn last night, one by you and the others by the second and third people to contact you about the possibility of drawing LoWs? Or did the tentative person also put in an action? The activity tracker showed that you had been around ~1 hour before the end of cycle, which meant you could have at least read every post that was made last night, even if something prevented you from posting.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, perhaps we should consider discussing whether to reveal our Night actions. Devotary sort of brought up already that it could be risky, letting the elims know who doesn't have chalk. But we might be able to narrow down who was able to submit the kill action.

Other than the people who claimed LoW to CadCom, this may be difficult. We can't even say for sure that this claim means they didn't submit the elim kill, as one of them could have backed out and the camp would still be protected. The fact that CadCom apparently organised the entire defence and the camp wasn't overrun makes me think he did draw a LoW. It's difficult to tell which items were taken from the supply due to the influx of chalk, but we can at least be sure that two people took bribes and one person took a bucket of acid. It's probably useful for them to claim after they use their item.Then there's Venture, who may or may not have used a crab.

[Araris Valerian]

The Crab is a day-only item, so unless Venture started with a Lantern (and I'm assuming the only starting items were Chalk), he couldn't have used the Crab.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Araris Valerian

[Snipexe]

7 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Snip: I might be being a bit hypocritical with my analysis of Snip, but I find him the most suspicious so far. The first reason is I got a bad gut read off his first post. It came very soon after a vote was placed on him for inactivity. It was as if he was monitoring the thread but not saying anything. I know there's no way to know this for sure, but the tone that I read it as, plus the timing of the post just gave me a bad read. Then the bad read was continued going forward when he stated during the night that he did want at least 3 people to put an action down, but as far as I know, he didn't claim to anyone to want to help.  We are still early in the cycle, so I'll have a good amount of time to go about changing this if something does come up, but for now, my vote will stay on Snip.

 

I think you may be reading too much into the timing of my first post. I had been working on an idea regarding lines of making, which was why I was viewing the thread. However, I suddenly realized I needed to clarify whether or not the Forsaken use chalk, so I asked that instead. Obviously, as I said later in the day, the fact that they could use chalk kind of screwed my plan.

As for the protection, I find it rather bizarre that you automatically assume that because I didn’t contact you, I didn’t defend. I think that at the time it would have made far more sense for me to not specifically tell you about defending, just in case there you or one of your contacts was lying. 

[CadCom]

24 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

I think you may be reading too much into the timing of my first post. I had been working on an idea regarding lines of making, which was why I was viewing the thread. However, I suddenly realized I needed to clarify whether or not the Forsaken use chalk, so I asked that instead. Obviously, as I said later in the day, the fact that they could use chalk kind of screwed my plan.

As for the protection, I find it rather bizarre that you automatically assume that because I didn’t contact you, I didn’t defend. I think that at the time it would have made far more sense for me to not specifically tell you about defending, just in case there you or one of your contacts was lying. 

I've had a short PM with Snip, which is causing me to reconsider my thoughts against him. I don't have a solid second person at this time, so I will wait before casting a vote, to see what comes up.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder
Brighter green

[Lumgol]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Italicized names are people that didn't grab an item during the first cycle. @StrikerEZ, @xinoehp512, @Ventyl, @Lumgol, it would be nice to hear from all you guys whether you tried to grab an item, forgot to submit an order, or did something else.

I forgot to submit an action. I was caught up in things other than SE and forgot that rollover and the thread were a thing.

As for making night actions public, I think that will ultimately benefit both the elims and village. The elims will learn what villagers are up to, which will let them make better decisions about who to target (kill, roleblock, etc), but the village will also notice if there are any discrepancies between stated actions and missing items/action scans/etc.

This makes action-tracking items more important in the game, so that if someone is reluctant to share what their action will be, someone can scan them. Thus, for today, I'll try to grab a Book of Artistry, which I'm assuming corresponds to the Lines of Making. 

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

On 7/12/2019 at 11:22 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I'm sort of curious about the Book of the Bouncer, and probably will go for that. I have a lantern, so I'll be able to read it during the Night, supposing I don't get lynched today.

Italicized names are people that didn't grab an item during the first cycle. @StrikerEZ, @xinoehp512, @Ventyl, @Lumgol, it would be nice to hear from all you guys whether you tried to grab an item, forgot to submit an order, or did something else.

I am also going for that book, but considering you have a lantern I’ll let you take it. To your second part, I just forgot to put in a action, I’ve been busy, though I’ve finished moving everything over, so I’ll be more active.

EDIT: 

I’ll be taking the book of the Artist.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Ventyl

[Snipexe]

I’ll go ahead and grab a book of silencing.

[CadCom]

I'll go for the book of duelist

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Currently, we have Araris going for the Book of the Bouncer, me going for the Book of the Sentry, @Lumgol and @Ventyl going for the the Book of Artistry, Snipexe going for the Book of Silencing, and CadCom going for the Book of the Duelist. Would either Lum or Ventyl like to switch to the Book of the Guardian?

[Lumgol]

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

I’ll be taking the book of the Artist.

I called first dibs

And neither of us seems to have a lantern, so.... hmmmmm

I'll stay with my action for now.

[Sart]

Less than 5 hours to go.

Vote Count:

Devotary of Spontaneity (1): StrikerEZ

Lumgol (1): Araris Valerian

[Araris Valerian]

35 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

I called first dibs

And neither of us seems to have a lantern, so.... hmmmmm

I'll stay with my action for now.

Well, as it stands, you have a 50% chance of dying, so Ventyl will probably get the book

[StrikerEZ]

Oh, I'll definitely not be around for rollover, so, uh...sorry Devotary if you get lynched.

[Snipexe]

CadCom

• I used a line of making on CadCom last night. He did not take an action involving chalk

• I later asked about this, and he pm’d me saying that he had a secret role, one that did not start with a piece of chalk. I was/am doubtful, however a reread of the rules seems to imply that such a role is possible:

  Quote

  Rithmatist: They win when all Forgotten are dead. Each Rithmatist starts the game with a Piece of Chalk

  Forgotten: They win when the Camp is Overrun for the third time. Each Forgotten starts the game with a Piece of Chalk. As a Night action, one Forgotten can kill a player. They also have a standard Google doc to collaborate in.

  (note the fact that instead of saying all players start with a piece of chalk, each role is listed as starting with a piece of chalk.

• He said that he had pm’d Xino, and waited till night before realizing that he did not have chalk, and so could not draw the line of warding. CadCom then explained to me in the pm that because of this, he organized the Lines of Warding last night. It was at this point that I became rather suspicious. 

• My suspicions were further aroused when he said to me that his role could not be proved according to known rules

• Let’s assume that you, the reader, got a secret role, a role whose actions were foreign to you. The first thing I know I would be doing is checking the actions, items, and what was different compared to the previously known roles. Because of this, I find it highly unlikely that it slipped his mind to check for chalk.

• So then why send the pm to Xino, saying that he was planning on defending tonight. I know that if I was sending said pm, I would confirmed that I had chalk, especially if I had a unique role.

• He also had the ability to rectify this, even mentioning in thread in this post:

  That he was considering picking up a piece of chalk, and in a separate paragraph recommending that the village pick up as much chalk as possible in order to prevent them from gaining control of a large supply of chalk. But that cycle he instead picked up the bribe. 

• The previously mentioned post also proves that he was thinking about chalk at the time, and that it hadn’t slipped his mind.

• The above points lead me to believe that CadCom is in fact a Forgotten pretending to have a secret role in order to cover his attempt to hide a kill action among the Lines of Warding.

• For Courtesy: @Cadmium Compounder

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

Oh, I'll definitely not be around for rollover, so, uh...sorry Devotary if you get lynched.

If you'll be sorry if I die, you probably shouldn't keep your vote on me. Especially as, so far as I can tell, your vote is for me telling you that Alvron likely wouldn't shoot anyone last cycle(given that Alv had proposed for the gun owner to pass the gun to another player) and that anyone who does shoot someone should claim. 

Venture's vote last cycle seems really odd for an elim to do, but it is technically possible it was an elim who didn't bother to consult with his teammates first. Not likely at this point, but perhaps more probable if Araris is evil.

And now, Snipexe has made a very exciting post. The only secret role I've ever seen in a Rithmatist game is the Thief, who has to accumulate a certain number of items and has a wincon hostile to both village and elim teams. Such a role wouldn't want the camp to be overrun, but wouldn't be willing to spend a piece of chalk on a LoW. The thief could very much prove their role by stealing items from other players, though the existence of Lines of Revocation would make it slightly harder to prove. CadCom never responded to my question about how many LoWs were supposedly drawn, but if it was only two others, then CadCom couldn't have been too worried that one of them was an eliminator. If CadCom is evil though, he could have made sure the camp was overrun unless he thought Snip and one of Striker/Lum would be drawing LoWs .

@Snipexe, is there any particular reason you decided to neglect the Line of Warding you thought we needed in favour of drawing a Line of Making at CadCom?

Let's see. CadCom has a bribe, and two other people took bribes last night. Striker has claimed not to have done anything last night; Araris or I could have bribes if we made an active choice to conceal that fact. Not impossible, but somewhat less likely.

[Snipexe]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@Snipexe, is there any particular reason you decided to neglect the Line of Warding you thought we needed in favour of drawing a Line of Making at CadCom?

I wasn’t sure if I could trust him. I don’t know, I kind just had a gut feeling and went for it.

Edit: one more quick thing to add in response to a different point Devotary made:

Quote

If CadCom is evil though, he could have made sure the camp was overrun unless he thought Snip and one of Striker/Lum would be drawing LoWs .

Not necessarily. Nothing happens when the camp is over run the first time, and CadCom would have been clearly shown to be responsible due to his posts in thread.

Another thing that bothers me is why did CadCom automatically assume that it was necessary to pm me, rather then just lie in thread. He couldn’t have known that I had taken an action to look at his actions, and if I had not then the lie would have been undetectable.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Snipexe
Responding to additional point, as well as adding more suspicions. Would have had a separate post, but I didn’t want to double post.

[Araris Valerian]

@Snipexe It's possible that CadCom has the Thief role, which was in the last couple of Rithmatist games, and in the most recent version, required some number of Bribes to be held to win. I'm reconsidering my village read on him, although not enough to guarantee his lynch. I think I'll move my vote from Lumgol to Snipexe. It seems reasonably likely that one of CadCom and Snipexe is at least not village, so I'm happy with them both being lynch targets this cycle.