Oltux72

The economics of Aviars and conclusions drawn from that

14 posts in this topic

Why do people spend a lot of money on aviars? That may seem like a trivial question at first. They are magic and give you powers. But let's look at the details.

First, exclusivity:

Quote

"You have two Aviar," she said. "You use them both at once?"
"My uncle had three."
"How is that even possible?"

As far as mainlanders know the rule is one aviar per person at a time. Hence if you get one aviar you cannot just add to your powers, but you choose that power closing off the other possibilities.

Second, the masking birds sell. Mating feathers from Kokerlii would attract a trapper. Why would you buy an aviar hiding your mind on the mainland? The predators of the Pantheon are limited to it and the waters near it. There are only a few hundred trappers. Every one of them already has a masking aviar.
The Ones Above can detect aviar with a machine. Hence the masking ability is useless to them. So they want another aviar which conveys a power not found on other worlds.

 

There must be something on the mainland that you need to hide your mind from. What could that be? It seems to me that the likeliest answer to that is other aviar. Now what is an ability we have seen on First of the Sun, not seen elsewhere? The most striking is outright telepathy.
I conclude that there is an aviar that enables you to read minds.

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On 6/6/2019 at 2:38 AM, Oltux72 said:

I conclude that there is an aviar that enables you to read minds.

Generally speaking in the Cosmere reading minds requires gaps in your soul(like those caused by hemolurgy).  Perhaps there is an Aviar that allows life sense or that can effect emotions.  Generally speaking those are much easier and would also be fooled by a coppercloudlike effect.

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3 hours ago, Karger said:

Generally speaking in the Cosmere reading minds requires gaps in your soul(like those caused by hemolurgy).

Not on First of the Sun. The Meekers read minds just fine. In fact they even project their own thoughts.
We know that that ability is found among multiple species. If a fruit tree emits the simulated thoughts of a suitable prey, then predators must interpret those thoughts. A simple life sense does not explain that. Reading the minds of only the minority of prey with gaps in their soul won't do predators any good, let alone allow them to use arcane senses as their primary sense in finding prey.

Yes, that is unusual. But their must be something unusual on First of the Sun. The Ones Above must have a reason to want aviars that fiercely.

3 hours ago, Karger said:

  Perhaps there is an Aviar that allows life sense or that can effect emotions.  Generally speaking those are much easier and would also be fooled by a coppercloudlike effect.

Apparently they are not easy to fool. Aviars produce copperclouds without a bond. Animals hide themselves and their minds under the roosting trees of wild aviars. People on the mainland would just keep as opposed to bond aviars that produce the coppercloud effect, as they think you can have only one aviar.

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It might also have become a status symbol. "Look, I'm so elite, I've got my own Aviar!"

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They also connect directly to your mind via the bond.  They must be nice pets.

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The masking ability isnt the only ability that the aviar provide. Other breeds give other abilities. You are making an assumption that the mind shielding ones are prized to possess while on the mainland. We saw the mind shielding ones so much because they are a necessity on the islands. They want to know about the islands because only birds from the islands can grant gifts, but they never say certain gifts are prized over others or why. They want to know why only breeds from the islands bestow gifts, not birds from the mainland. the birds are also a status symbol of the rich as mentioned. Quotes shown below

 

 

Nobody knew why beasts like the shadows only lived here, in the waters near the Pantheon. Why not travel across the seas to the Eelakin Islands or the mainland, where food would be plentiful and Aviar like Kokerlii were far more rare? Once, these questions had not been asked. The seas were what they were. Now, however, men poked and prodded into everything. They asked, “Why?” They said, “We should explain it.”

 

 

“The world is changing, Sixth of the Dusk,” she said softly. “The people of the mainland grow hungry for Aviar companions; things once restricted to the very wealthy are within the reach of ordinary people. We’ve learned so much, yet the Aviar are still an enigma. Why don’t chicks raised on the homeisles bestow talents? Why—”

 

 

“We set up camp on the far beach,” she said. “We have two ironhulls armed with cannons watching the waters. Those can take on even a deepwalker, if they have to. Two hundred soldiers, half that number in scientists and merchants. We’re determined to find out, once and for all, why the Aviar must be born on one of the Pantheon Islands to be able to bestow talents.

 

 

“But why would they?” she continued, quietly, as if to herself. “The Aviar are special. Everyone knows the separate breeds and what they do. Why assume that a fish would learn to breathe air, if raised on land? Why assume a non-Aviar would become one if raised on Patji.…”
 
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4 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

The masking ability isnt the only ability that the aviar provide. Other breeds give other abilities. You are making an assumption that the mind shielding ones are prized to possess while on the mainland. We saw the mind shielding ones so much because they are a necessity on the islands.

There are a few hundred trappers, who all have access to the source. If there is a market for them at all, it is on the mainland. If there is no market, then you can't  set a trap with their feathers.

4 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

They want to know about the islands because only birds from the islands can grant gifts, but they never say certain gifts are prized over others or why. They want to know why only breeds from the islands bestow gifts, not birds from the mainland. the birds are also a status symbol of the rich as mentioned. Quotes shown below

A cloaking aviar makes only sense if there is something to cloak against. And if your belief is that you cannot have more than one aviar, then you are prizing the one you pick over all others.

Obviously they can raise birds on the mainland. The birds are not rare. The abilities they grant are rare. Hence they can test the abilities.

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Posted (edited)

6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

There are a few hundred trappers, who all have access to the source. If there is a market for them at all, it is on the mainland. If there is no market, then you can't  set a trap with their feathers.

A cloaking aviar makes only sense if there is something to cloak against. And if your belief is that you cannot have more than one aviar, then you are prizing the one you pick over all others.

Obviously they can raise birds on the mainland. The birds are not rare. The abilities they grant are rare. Hence they can test the abilities.

He fished in his pocket, fingers brushing an old stiff piece of feather. Then, not wanting to pass up the opportunity, he got a few long, bright green and red feathers from his pack. They were mating plumes, which he’d taken from Kokerlii during the Aviar’s most recent molting. He moved into the jungle, meekers following with excitement. Once he neared their den, he stuck the mating plumes into some branches, as if they had fallen there naturally. A passing trapper might see the plumes and assume that Aviar had a nest nearby, fresh with eggs for the plunder. That would draw them.
 
This is the scene you are referring to. No mention of kokerlii being especially valuable to the mainland. Just that mating plumes would make a trapper look for a nest with eggs to plunder. However there is more later.
 
 
“I want to make it perfectly clear,” the woman said. “I have no intention of stealing your birds or infringing upon your territory.”
 
Rivals steal each others birds and are very territorial. You assume it has to deal with getting money from the mainland. These are ancient traditions that she sees as barbaric. They existed prior to the birds becoming popular 
 
 
Dusk settled back. The woman rotated slowly in her net, and he noticed an Aviar clinging to the outside—like his own birds, it was about as tall as three fists atop one another, though this one had subdued white and green plumage. A streamer, which was a breed that did not live on Patji. He did not know much about them, other than that like Kokerlii, they protected the mind from predators.
 
Kokerlii is not the only breed that hides minds. There is a reason I mention this in particular.  Will go into further down below.
 
Yes, one wing was bloody. Vathi knew enough to care for the bird, however, which was pleasing. Some homeislers were completely ignorant of their Aviar’s needs, treating them like accessories rather than intelligent creatures.
 
Aviar are not desired just for their talents. They are also desired for the appearance.  So again, it is an assumption that mind blocking is especially prized on the mainland when there is one off hand reference about kokerlii plumage.  However there is a reason why a trapper could be interested in kokerlii in particular.  This is shown further down
 
Dusk stopped, turning. The woman’s own Aviar moved down her dress away from Kokerlii to cling near her bodice. The bird hissed softly, but Kokerlii—oblivious, as usual—continued to chirp happily. It was fortunate his breed was so mind-invisible, even deathants would consider him no more edible than a piece of bark. “Is this…” Vathi said, looking to Dusk. “Yours? But of course. The one on your shoulder is not Aviar.” Sak settled back, puffing up her feathers. No, her species was not Aviar. Dusk continued to lead the way. “I have never seen a trapper carry a bird who was not from the islands,” Vathi said from behind.
 
Kokerlii is so mind invisible that even deathants cant see him. This shows that although some breeds have similar powers, the potency of said powers can vary between breeds or even potentially between individuals. So breeding the kokerlii to produce the strongest mind hiding talent would be invaluable to a trapper whose very life depends on it.
 
Kokerlii landed on top of one of the homes, trilling—but softly, now that night had fallen. More coos and chirps came from the other boxes. Dusk climbed out to check each bird for hurt wings or feet. These Aviar pairs were his life’s work; the chicks each one hatched became his primary stock-in-trade. Yes, he would trap on the island, trying to find nests and wild chicks—but that was never as efficient as raising nests.
 
We could assume based on this reception to kokerlii that the other aviar in this nest are the same breed and sixth is breeding them. However this is untrue for two reasons. One, sixth has remarked multiple times on how aviar raised by trappers act different and see humans as part of their roost. So too would the other breeds they grew up with. The second reason is shown below in the quote where the machine is activated and all the aviar freak out.
 
 
hurt that wing more, with the fracture. She’d eventually be able to bite off the bandage, but for now, she’d get a chance to heal. Once done, he placed her with his other Aviar, who made quiet, friendly chirps, calming the flustered bird.
 
See? We know her breed is different than kokerlii, from a different region, yet they welcome it.
 
He sighed and rose, placing Sak on his shoulder. He turned, and almost stumbled as he saw his corpse at his feet. He came alert immediately. What was it? Vines in the tree branches? A spider, dropping quietly from above? There wasn’t supposed to be anything in his safecamp that could kill him. Sak screeched as if in pain. Nearby, his other Aviar cried out as well, a cacophony of squawks, screeches, chirps. No, it wasn’t just them! All around … echoing in the distance, from both near and far, wild Aviar squawked. They rustled in their branches, a sound like a powerful wind blowing through the trees.
 
Sak is the one on his shoulder reacting.  Either every single one of them is like sak, which cant be the case because the woman does not comment on them the way she does sak,  or there is a mixture and they all can be affected by the machine. I personally lean towards the latter. 
 
So for myself these quotes show that trappers do value the mind hiding aviar enough to breed them. To me we have no indication that mind hiding aviar are bred in massive numbers for the main land other than potentially that their appearance is appealing. Not knowing what other talents are bestowed by aviar (as sak is unique), I feel we cannot judge at this point what talents are especially valuable to the main land. It is beneficial for trappers to breed the mind hiding aviar because 
  1. You never know when your current one could get hurt, die, or fly away (mentioned in the beginning as to why they tend to clip the wings but sixth doesn't)
  2. Different breeds have different strengths of mind hiding abilities.  So the chance of finding a breed that is even stronger and protects you even better is even more valuable to a trapper that depends on it for his or her life
  3. We dont know how old aviar get. Breeding them may ensure you always have one ready for the future if your current gets too old to survive the dangerous island conditions with you. 
  4. Curiosity about the islands have a surge due to wanting to know the origin of the talents. You need a mind hiding one to explore,  so everyone gets one to explore. 
 
 
Edit: can you explain your last point. It makes no sense to me. 
Edited by Pathfinder
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21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

This is the scene you are referring to. No mention of kokerlii being especially valuable to the mainland. Just that mating plumes would make a trapper look for a nest with eggs to plunder. However there is more later.

What for? A spare aviar? If they have money for spares, why would you risk your life for such aviars?

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Rivals steal each others birds and are very territorial. You assume it has to deal with getting money from the mainland. These are ancient traditions that she sees as barbaric. They existed prior to the birds becoming popular

The birds are nevertheless valuable.

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Kokerlii is not the only breed that hides minds. There is a reason I mention this in particular.  Will go into further down below.

 

While that is true, it would diminish his market value.

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Aviar are not desired just for their talents. They are also desired for the appearance.

They can be bred on the mainland. They have no magic, but they look like aviars. This is irrelevant.

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

Kokerlii is so mind invisible that even deathants cant see him. This shows that although some breeds have similar powers, the potency of said powers can vary between breeds or even potentially between individuals. So breeding the kokerlii to produce the strongest mind hiding talent would be invaluable to a trapper whose very life depends on it.

Not invaluable. Merely somewhat valuable. They already have a cloaking aviar. Perhaps it is a bit worse, but it is perfectly workable. And it is available on less dangerous islands.

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:

We could assume based on this reception to kokerlii that the other aviar in this nest are the same breed and sixth is breeding them. However this is untrue for two reasons. One, sixth has remarked multiple times on how aviar raised by trappers act different and see humans as part of their roost. So too would the other breeds they grew up with. The second reason is shown below in the quote where the machine is activated and all the aviar freak out.

We could make that assumption. The text is ambiguous. But if we assume that it is another species, we need to ask why Dusk does not use his own products. More, he goes to the trouble of importing a mainland chick.

21 hours ago, Pathfinder said:
 
Edit: can you explain your last point. It makes no sense to me. 

They know aviars raised on the mainland are powerless. They could not know that unless they had something that can test those abilities.

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On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

What for? A spare aviar? If they have money for spares, why would you risk your life for such aviars?

Already asked an answered in my above post. Aviar are not only attractive to the mainland for their talents. They are also "pretty" birds and status symbols. Secondly, and I will have to repeat this again below because you mention this again, but Kokerlii is especially mind hiding strong enough that not only does Sixth mention it internally, but he is grateful for it. That says to me that Kokerlii's breed would be valuable for trappers so they have that little bit extra safety that could spell the difference between survival and death. 

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

The birds are nevertheless valuable.

The birds can be valuable but at the same time, have different reasons for their value. What you posit does not have to be mutually exclusive

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

While that is true, it would diminish his market value.

You assume that:

1. the market value has to be huge when all we have is a comment that the mating plumes would lead a trapper to search for a nest. Which is not confirmation that they would be searching for Kokerlii's breed in particular, nor for that specific power. Just that the idea of gaining eggs in the wild is appealing to a trapper. 

2. that this theorized huge market value would diminish, which isn't an issue if that was not the sole goal of the breed to begin with. 

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

They can be bred on the mainland. They have no magic, but they look like aviars. This is irrelevant.

No it is not. People can get imitation crab, yet there is a market for actual crab. People can get generic products yet there is still a product for the actual product. People could have a mainland Aviar, but the truly rich with the means, can get a Aviar from the islands. It is a status symbol, regardless the power. In fact the power could be utterly useless, but so long as it is rare, it would appeal even further. People do that with pokemon lol. They could have 30 pikachus, but they will kill themselves to get that one shiny pikachu because it is unique. 

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

Not invaluable. Merely somewhat valuable. They already have a cloaking aviar. Perhaps it is a bit worse, but it is perfectly workable. And it is available on less dangerous islands.

In a world where one misstep can spell your death, I would say it would be invaluable to the trapper. You disagree. To each their own. 

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

We could make that assumption. The text is ambiguous. But if we assume that it is another species, we need to ask why Dusk does not use his own products. More, he goes to the trouble of importing a mainland chick.

Could it be that Sixth realized why the birds get their talents, and brought in a mainland to see if he was right? Pretty easy answer. 

On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

They know aviars raised on the mainland are powerless. They could not know that unless they had something that can test those abilities.

Don't need something to test abilities. Simply bond a bird from the islands. You now know what power it bestows. You then decide to breed it on the mainland to sell it without the island. Someone bonds the offspring. The power they expected to work, does not. There you go. Tested and answered. 

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On 6/16/2019 at 7:05 AM, Oltux72 said:

While that is true, it would diminish his market value.

Considering the extremely limited sources of supply and the vast market diminishing market value would be difficult in the extreme.

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9 hours ago, Karger said:

Considering the extremely limited sources of supply and the vast market diminishing market value would be difficult in the extreme.

Yes, if and only if you sell them on the mainland. If you sell to other trappers, you have millions of aviars compared to hundreds of trappers. Remember also that on the mainland they believe that one aviar is the maximum, hence the values of useless aviars are negative in a certain market segment.

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5 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Yes, if and only if you sell them on the mainland. If you sell to other trappers, you have millions of aviars compared to hundreds of trappers. Remember also that on the mainland they believe that one aviar is the maximum, hence the values of useless aviars are negative in a certain market segment.


Trappers only catch or breed a few dozen aviars every year if Dusk is anything of an example.  They can also sell to the chiefs and other islanders.  I don't think that any aviars will actually be useless as they still can be used as status symbols (none aviar birds without talents will not be able to do the telepathy stuff that makes them such good pets)

 

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6 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Yes, if and only if you sell them on the mainland. If you sell to other trappers, you have millions of aviars compared to hundreds of trappers. Remember also that on the mainland they believe that one aviar is the maximum, hence the values of useless aviars are negative in a certain market segment.

I think you are grossly over estimating the number of Aviar, as well as under estimating the value of a Aviar ensuring the survival of a trapper, especially when we have no idea what the other talents are. 

1 hour ago, Karger said:


Trappers only catch or breed a few dozen aviars every year if Dusk is anything of an example.  They can also sell to the chiefs and other islanders.  I don't think that any aviars will actually be useless as they still can be used as status symbols (none aviar birds without talents will not be able to do the telepathy stuff that makes them such good pets)

 

My thoughts exactly. 

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