StrikerEZ

Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

592 posts in this topic

6 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I suggest that if anybody is a Village coinshot, PM somebody who you think is village, and if it’s me I’d be willing to role trade.

Why should the coinshot PM someone? Generally, it would be safer for them to keep a low profile. The risk of PMing a Kandra/Elim is one that I would not encourage them to take. We should know for certain if they are in the game D2/D3 depending on when they make their first kill.

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Remember, there's just a little over two hours left until rollover! As a reminder in case any of these people are able to get on, the following people have not yet met the inactivity filter:

@Amanuensis @Lumgol @Araris Valerian @Ventyl @Devotary of Spontaneity @Sart @Walin @Aonar @Snipexe @Straw @xinoehp512 

Of those people, Araris, Sart, Walin, Snipexe, and Straw did not meet the filter D1 either.

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If anyone wants to swap roles, they may PM me. I have already used up my PM for today.

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1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

Remember, there's just a little over two hours left until rollover! As a reminder in case any of these people are able to get on, the following people have not yet met the inactivity filter:

@Amanuensis @Lumgol @Araris Valerian @Ventyl @Devotary of Spontaneity @Sart @Walin @Aonar @Snipexe @Straw @xinoehp512 

Of those people, Araris, Sart, Walin, Snipexe, and Straw did not meet the filter D1 either.

Oof. I was kinda hoping my long post would maybe count as two. Unfortunately I'm about to get some sleep now, so I won't be able to post again tonight. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll get right on fulfilling my promises.

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OK, activity level check:

Super active:

  • Drake
  • Aman
  • Rath
  • Fifth
  • Fura
  • Devotary
  • Stick

Pretty active:

  • Ventyl
  • Lum

Kind of active:

  • Sart
  • Aonar
  • Snip

Not really active:

  • xino
  • Araris
  • Straw
  • Walin (sorry to hear you aren't able to really play this game)

As expected, most of the conversation has revolved around the seven of us who are rather active.  For those of you not on the list, what thoughts do you have on the game?  I've already created my PM for the turn, but feel free to start one with me or ask for one in the next day turn if I'm still around.

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1 hour ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Considering that this was a tied lynch between villagers, I am more inclined to suspect the people who distanced themselves from the lynch, kept their head down and hands off, because they were okay with how things were going.

(I would hesitate to call consuming half the thread in D1 lynch discussion "keeping one's head down" so I'm not suspecting Aman on account of that, although I wouldn't say it makes Aman more trustworthy either)

In other words, I am looking for people who:

  • Were reasonably active last cycle
  • Didn't vote
  • Didn't cite objection to the idea of a D1 lynch as a reason for not voting
  • Don't have a history (that I know of) of avoiding D1 lynches

People who could maybe fit that description:

  • Devotary
  • Rath
  • Fura(?) told me they were receptive to the idea of no D1 lynch in a PM so I'm less inclined to suspect Fura for not participating

We had all of six votes last cycle out of seventeen players. Two of those were poke votes that never got removed. Two of those were part of the only post made that cycle. Two votes were cast as potentially being temporary, and became permanent due to an inability to be around for rollover. That leaves eleven players, eight of which met the minimum post requirement. We've heard from Stick about where her vote would have gone, and we'll hopefully hear from others, in particular Sart and Aman as they've expressed displeasure in the way the votes turned out, what they would have done had they been around between when Fifth placed the second vote on you and when the day ended.

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28 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Remember, there's just a little over two hours left until rollover! As a reminder in case any of these people are able to get on, the following people have not yet met the inactivity filter:

@Amanuensis @Lumgol @Araris Valerian @Ventyl @Devotary of Spontaneity @Sart @Walin @Aonar @Snipexe @Straw @xinoehp512 

Of those people, Araris, Sart, Walin, Snipexe, and Straw did not meet the filter D1 either.

"What?"
"Well, they're trying to encourage people to be more talkative."
"Oh."

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Hello.

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21 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

OK, activity level check:

Super active:

  • Drake
  • Aman
  • Rath
  • Fifth
  • Fura
  • Devotary
  • Stick

Pretty active:

  • Ventyl
  • Lum

Kind of active:

  • Sart
  • Aonar
  • Snip

Not really active:

  • xino
  • Araris
  • Straw
  • Walin (sorry to hear you aren't able to really play this game)

As expected, most of the conversation has revolved around the seven of us who are rather active.  For those of you not on the list, what thoughts do you have on the game?  I've already created my PM for the turn, but feel free to start one with me or ask for one in the next day turn if I'm still around.

My thoughts? It’s hard to know. I’m relatively confident that there is at least one elim hiding in the active players (based on the breakdown of probabilities and rather then reads), and seeing as they have the most content, it does make sense to start the analyzing there anyway, seeing as they have the most content to be analyzed. Other then that, I’ve got no idea. It’s still C1 after all.

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17 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Hello.

Hi Xino, Who do you trust the most, and who do you trust the least?

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It's kind of interesting that there were so few votes. Most D1 lynches I've seen have had a fair number of votes, even if they're spread out a lot. Hopefully more people will vote next Day turn. 

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I hope I can vote...

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I honestly don't have too much to contribute right now. I'm usually fairly silent during night cycles. I did mention in a PM, and it's worth saying here, that I think there is a very low likelihood that Ark was lynched because of his role. Basically I have no extra distrust of Drake or Ventyl from that lynch.

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That's a wrap folks! Night 1 is over! I'll send out PMs and post Day 2 shortly.

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Posted (edited)

Day 1 - We Survived

It seemed that after everyone realized what had happened to Arr, the entire station had gotten really quiet. A few people talked in the main lobby or in small groups, but they mostly kept to themselves.
As such, Draff was left alone to his thoughts over the course of the night. He strolled through the hallways of the station, hearing bits and pieces of conversations between other people who couldn’t sleep or needed to be around others.
Suddenly, he heard a noise down the hallway. His heart pounding, he ran towards the noise to see what had happened.
He turned the corner, and found Wilco lying with his back against the wall, head between his knees. When he heard Draff running towards him, he quickly looked up with a scared look on his face, which quickly turned to relief.
Draff noticed that Wilco’s left eye was swollen, and his lip was bleeding a little, but he seemed aware enough of what was going on to respond to questions.
After a bit of a talk, Wilco said someone jumped him while he was walking down the hallway, but he had managed to get a little bit away before he had to sit down. He thought Draff must’ve been the person who jumped him before he saw Draff’s face.
Draff sighed. That could’ve been much worse, he thought to himself. At least Wilco seems to be able to keep going.

~

Amanuensis was attacked, but survived!

PMs are open, but remember that each player may only make one new PM each turn. Remember to include me and Mailliw in all PMs, and group PMs ARE allowed.

There is a two-vote minimum for a lynch and a tied lynch results in one of the tied lynchees’ death.

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Amanuensis, aka "Detective Wilco Renaud"
  2. Ark1002, aka "Arr K. Thousantoo" Police Mistborn
  3. Lumgol, aka "TBD"
  4. Fifth Scholar, aka “Serdig Darillid”
  5. Araris Valerian, aka “Fade”
  6. Ventyl, aka “Lafay Etteax”
  7. Furamirionind, aka "Furamirionind"
  8. Rathmaskal
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity, aka "Sindale"
  10. Sart
  11. _Stick_, aka "Stick"
  12. Young Bard, aka "Nedar Latfin"
  13. Aonar, aka "Ainm Lathair"
  14. Snipexe
  15. Straw, aka "Mertis tyl Loesp"
  16. Drake Marshall, aka “Thomas Blackburn”
  17. xinoehp512

This turn will last 48 hours and will end at 7:30 PM CDT on June 14th.

Edited by StrikerEZ
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What are the chances of a WGG on N1 on someone under mild suspicion at best? I'd say astronomical.

Well, awesome! Great job to whatever caused Aman to survive.

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14 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

What are the chances of a WGG on N1 on someone under mild suspicion at best? I'd say astronomical.

Well, awesome! Great job to whatever caused Aman to survive.

High. AG3 is the easiest example and I can pull others. Not to mention that this is the exact kind of move Elim!Aman would make. I again just got back from an eight hour hiatus so give me time to look at PMs and yesterday’s thread. 

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10 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

High. AG3 is the easiest example and I can pull others. Not to mention that this is the exact kind of move Elim!Aman would make. I again just got back from an eight hour hiatus so give me time to look at PMs and yesterday’s thread. 

Sure, he isnt hard cleared but I think he is as cleared as anyone can be after C1.

Why would he do that though as an elim? There is an SK in this game, where there wasnt in AG3. There are also scanning roles that can check to see if Aman is a thug or not.

Basically, even if we clear an elim!Aman for this, we can catch him later.

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Yay for no kill, I guess. I guess this kind of compensates for losing a Mistborn?

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Well, that was quick. I guess I'm not too surprised somebody attacked Aman, but I expected it would take another cycle or two. They also survived. Possible explanations:

  1. The eliminator team perceived Amanuensis as a threat (which is interesting, because there are also a good few players on the shard that would not react by killing a player they deemed someone to watch out for at the first possible opportunity). A village lurcher (or thug!Aman) protected Aman.
  2. The eliminators, including Amanuensis, decided to try a WGG, and presumably had a role to do so with.

 

Moreover, I'm pretty interested in the fact that there was only one attack, not more. I doubt the eliminators failed to make a kill. Possible explanations:

  1. The SK does not have a kill and thus couldn't make one.
    • Probably because they have infiltrated the eliminator team and meant to rely on the eliminator kill. They are a kandra, after all.
  2. The SK has a kill, but they also had a different action they wanted to do instead.
    • This possibility would support my theory of a kandra mistborn.
      • If a mistborn!Kandra wanted to protect themselves on the first night, that could potentially implicate Aman.
  3. The SK was inactive, and forgot to submit a kill order.
    • In this case, they will probably die to the inactivity filter soon. The good thing about this possibility is that we'll know if this is true in at least a few cycles.

 

I'll make a definitive analysis later in the cycle but this is pretty much me processing.

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1 hour ago, Straw said:

Yay for no kill, I guess. I guess this kind of compensates for losing a Mistborn?

No, I don’t think this compensates, because like @Furamirionind and @Fifth Scholar said, it could be a WGG. Either way, now the village doesn’t have a Mistborn to you know, protect us better than we can. Unless there is a village coinshot that could help kill elims, but that’s not guaranteed. So I’d say the elims definitely have an upper hand right now, because they know for sure that we no longer have a Mistborn. (Unless we have two :P)

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Also, quick clarification, you can not use your one PM per turn to add more people to pre-existing PMs.

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Posted (edited)

35 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also, quick clarification, you can not use your one PM per turn to add more people to pre-existing PMs.

I asked him this question, so y’all are welcome for this clarification. :P:P:P:P:P

 

EDIT

 

Lafay walks down the hall to go clock in for work. He was paranoid considering what had happened to both Arr. K Thousantoo and Wilco yesterday and last night. As he turned a corner he bumped right into  Sindale, the crashing of their heads seemed to echo throughout the station. Ahh Rust! was the first thing that came into his mind. Ahh Ruin! immediately followed as he saw it was the koloss-blooded woman. 

He decided to salvage this encounter with a question as they both reoriented themselves, “Well, uhm... What do you think of Arr. K Thousantoo, our only known Mistborn on the force, having to go home because he got beat up?”

Edited by Ventyl
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"Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity)"

Quote

Who would you have voted for had you been around for rollover? I don't think you expressed any particular suspicion of Drake, but would you have finalised the lynch on Drake for information, gone after Ark to lynch a less active player, tried to start a new lynch ~15 minutes before rollover, or just let the tied lynch stand?

"Answer your own question."

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Posted (edited)

31 minutes ago, Sart said:

"Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity)"

"Answer your own question."

I’m inclined to believe that that quote is from a PM with @Devotary of Spontaneity considering I don’t remember seeing a post like that. So unless Devotary answers her own question I’ll have to put my vote my on her. For now though, I will not put a vote out. 

:P

 

EDIT

oops Striker just told me that it was from a previous thread, sorry.

Edited by Ventyl
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