StrikerEZ

Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

627 posts in this topic

40 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

ED1T: Oh dang I got 1337 upvotes! Gotta screenshot this rep title.

Looks like someone saw that and decided you weren't 1337 anymore.

My point on thugs was that I don't think we'll be able to convince anyone to willingly die if they can prevent it.

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Nial walked up to the Happy Days soothing parlor, adjusting the brim of his aluminum lined hat as he approached. He opening the door carefully, trying not to alert the clerk at the desk in front of him. The women looked up at him, raising and eyebrow at his attempt to sneak in. 

“You’re going to need to take all that off if you want an appointment.” She said, gesturing to his trench coat and fedora.

“I am a police detective, I need to look at your ledgers.”  Nial responded, pulling out his badge and showing it to her. She rolled her eyes. “Ya’ll are supposed to schedule these kind of things in advance.” “This is ‘scheduling in advance’. In a all likelihood, most constables would have had a Hazekiller squad just break down your door” That shut her up. She handed the books over to him silently, though her glare betrayed how she felt.

As he looked through the ledgers, Nial felt his lips begin to curl up in a smile. Henry King, Drew Harper, and Michael Cane were pseudonyms for the same man, Lance Cett, Elendel’s biggest narcotics supplier, and all had frequented this parlor on numerous occasions. He pulled out a notebook, scribbling as much as he could, dates, times, and names before what he assumed would be hired thugs arrived. He looked up at the sound of heavy footsteps on floor above, and shut the books. He slipped his notebook into his pocked and quickly walked out the door, breaking into a run as soon as he was out. He needed to reach the precinct before the parlor was cleared of evidence, and likely burned down. They had tried for so long to catch Cett, and now was their chance. Time after time they had been mislead or too late. Several minutes of hard running later, he reached the precinct. He ran up the steps to his division’s floor. “Sarge!” He yelled, looking for her, “Sarge, we got it!” There was no one on the floor. Where were they? Some kind of meeting? He went back downstairs, all be it slower then is ascent, and walked to the conference room. He opened the door, slipping in the back. Hopefully he could catch some of the meeting.

“get her to tell us who they were, but we know there are at least a few more officers, that Lyrelle knew of at least, who have joined the force to undermine our operations or have become sympathetic to the rebels’ cause.
“I need each and everyone of you to work together to root out these rebels as we continue our investigation. We cannot afford to risk losing the city because we were unable to trust every officer we have.” 

Lyrelle? His sergeant? A rebel? Suddenly things began to make much more sense. They’d been chasing Cett for nearly 2 years now, and he’s always been one step ahead. Rusts, he’d told her everything, about the Happy Days lead, the breakthrough on the 6th octant hideout. Those were worthless. He crumpled up the papers in his pocket, feeling a rage come over him. Cett could wait, he had rebels to find.

 

Checking in! I’m enjoying Aman’s villager bucks, they seem like a cool idea, though a little biased, and more a way of quantifying reads then anything else. I’m going to wait a bit before posting some more concrete (as much as d1 analysis can be) analysis.

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Hello peeps, I am here. Sorry for not posting sooner xD

So I was rereading the rules an found something MAJOR (cuz I missed it last time I read the rules):

Quote
  • Kandra: There is a rogue Kandra hidden among the Police and Rebels, and they just want the death of as many people as possible. The Kandra’sgoal is to be the last player standing.

I don't know whether I'm interpreting this right, but it is trying to say that the kandra can be among the elim team?:P That'll be super convenient. If we manage to lynch this elim, we'll effectively shoot down two birds with one stone. The kandra could just be among the villagers. Also, while I'm on the subject of Kandra, @StrikerEZ the rules don't say what ability the kandra has. It an ability from the mentioned roles or is it a secret ability?Anyway. With that pointed out, I'll now read the thread.

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The Mistborn was presumably added for a reason, as there shouldn't really be Mistborn save for the Lord Mistborn and Ironeyes, so I'd say it's more likely that Coinshots were excluded than Mistborn. Since the Kandra can pretty much only win if they whittle the game down to one police, one rebel, and themselves, and then get both the last police and the last rebel killed in the same turn without dying, the Kandra would need a night kill to have any real hope of winning.

Yeah I'm assuming that the Kandra would have a kill.

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

So here's a big ole REMINDER: Every player can only make 1 PM every turn, but they CAN be group PMs.

I forgot about this. Was totally planning to like PM 10 people one-on-one tonight xD Thanks

9 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

While Sindale disapproves of Mistborn, she is forced to admit that such a being is unlikely to stand with those using guns and bombs to overthrow the government. Last hour lynches may not give the Mistborn, or Thugs who are less alignment indicative, the opportunity to use pewter to survive their lynch.

 

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I disagree that we should use last-minute lynches to rob extra-life roles of their ability to escape the lynch; while I don’t necessarily want to waste a lynch, as I detailed above, a measure such as this would diminish lynch discussion, reducing it to the last hours of a turn instead of the full 48 hours we can and should be using; moreover, last minute voting creates bandwagoning, which muddles analysis and dilutes thoughtful lynch discussion, both measures which Eliminators support. As such, Devotary, as I’d appreciate clarification on your comment. Were you actually supporting the measure which you pointed out? 

 

3 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I think you might have read Devotary's post wrong tbh. That last paragraph threw me off a bit, but after reading it the third time I think they're saying that if a Mistborn exists, they are certainly not an eliminator. Oh wait nvm that second sentence is... hm. I think the point is they don't want Thugs to survive lynches. If that's the case, can we maybe agree that no Village Thug should use their ability during the day? I don't think last minute wagons is the answer either and... hm. Yeah sorry Devotary, I won't vote on you but I'd like that Villager Buck (TM) back :P

She's saying that she suspects the Misborn to be a villager. But it does seem odd that in the next sentence she proceeds to advise us on how to effectively lynch the mistborn :P Interested see how Devotary responds.

56 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I agree that it's likely everyone has some sort of role

why?

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4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I agree with the first half of your second paragraph about Mistborn and Coinshots. However, I think you’ve misinterpreted the Kandra role—I think it’s essential that the village remove them before they can win, even if it’s not explicitly stated in the rules; otherwise, with the Kandra lacking other powers, its job would be almost impossibly difficult if it had to play Kingmaker as well as Serial Killer. That or the Kandra has secrets, of course. 

I disagree that we should use last-minute lynches to rob extra-life roles of their ability to escape the lynch; while I don’t necessarily want to waste a lynch, as I detailed above, a measure such as this would diminish lynch discussion, reducing it to the last hours of a turn instead of the full 48 hours we can and should be using; moreover, last minute voting creates bandwagoning, which muddles analysis and dilutes thoughtful lynch discussion, both measures which Eliminators support. As such, Devotary, as I’d appreciate clarification on your comment. Were you actually supporting the measure which you pointed out? 

The village wincon is very specifically to kill all of the rebels, and doesn't say we need to kill the Kandra in order to win. It will probably help, especially if elims start to die, but unlike last game we can afford to kill the rebels first.

The idea was since last minute lynches have the chance to kill Mistborn before they can use pewter to defend themselves, we should avoid last minute lynches to prevent that from happening. Unfortunately, letting the target see the lynch coming also gives Thugs the chance to protect themselves with pewter, and since the alignment of a Thug is not so easily determined, surviving the lynch is no longer indicative of being a villager. Aman's plan would solve this particular problem, as a village Mistborn can be distinguished from an elim Thug. Hopefully the extra time given by allowing lynchees ample time to see their end coming would give village Thugs an opportunity to avoid death by moving the lynch somewhere else. 

 

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3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't know whether I'm interpreting this right, but it is trying to say that the kandra can be among the elim team?:P That'll be super convenient. If we manage to lynch this elim, we'll effectively shoot down two birds with one stone. The kandra could just be among the villagers. Also, while I'm on the subject of Kandra, @StrikerEZ the rules don't say what ability the kandra has. It an ability from the mentioned roles or is it a secret ability?Anyway. With that pointed out, I'll now read the thread.

First, I can't answer that. 

Second, also can't answer that. :P

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12 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

First, I can't answer that. 

Second, also can't answer that. :P

Thank you :rolleyes:

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3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Thank you :rolleyes:

You're quite welcome!

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19 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't know whether I'm interpreting this right, but it is trying to say that the kandra can be among the elim team?:P That'll be super convenient. If we manage to lynch this elim, we'll effectively shoot down two birds with one stone. The kandra could just be among the villagers. Also, while I'm on the subject of Kandra, @StrikerEZ the rules don't say what ability the kandra has. It an ability from the mentioned roles or is it a secret ability?Anyway. With that pointed out, I'll now read the thread.

why?

For the kandra, I'm interpreting that the same as 'there are elims hiding among the village'.

Why do I think everyone likely has a role?  With 17 players and 10 allomantic abilities, plus the kandra, I'd say it's much more likely that there are duplicate abilities than 6 players just got left out of having abilities.

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I like the idea of the Kandra in the elim team. It is also possible that in that case, the Kandra would have no extra kill? And would instead rely on the elim kill...

Actually, that's unlikely as the elims would have to start killing themselves if they are too far ahead...

I also think it would be too easy for the elims to find an elim!Kandra, though I admit, this does technically rely apon their secret abilities

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A kandra on the elim team with the goal of killing the other elims would definitely be quite fun.  I'm 100% rooting for this to be the case now.  That person would have to somehow get the other elims lynched slowly throughout the game.

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1 minute ago, Rathmaskal said:

A kandra on the elim team with the goal of killing the other elims would definitely be quite fun.  I'm 100% rooting for this to be the case now.  That person would have to somehow get the other elims lynched slowly throughout the game.

or maybe just sit back and watch their team kill off villagers and then reveal the whole team covertly to the remaining villagers through PMs, while somehow sounding village. 

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Haha, but they cant just out the elims, because that would out them as a Kandra, and they would be lynched as well. (Plus the elims are their source of kills)

Ooh, I like this hypothetical unlikely scenario...

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34 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The idea was since last minute lynches have the chance to kill Mistborn before they can use pewter to defend themselves, we should avoid last minute lynches to prevent that from happening. Unfortunately, letting the target see the lynch coming also gives Thugs the chance to protect themselves with pewter, and since the alignment of a Thug is not so easily determined, surviving the lynch is no longer indicative of being a villager. Aman's plan would solve this particular problem, as a village Mistborn can be distinguished from an elim Thug. Hopefully the extra time given by allowing lynchees ample time to see their end coming would give village Thugs an opportunity to avoid death by moving the lynch somewhere else. 

Didn't see this post before for some reason >>

Okay, that makes a lot of sense. 

Also, as a side note, I'd advise everybody not to easily role claim to people in PMs because worryingly enough, a lot of the villagers were very open with their roles in PMs in the last LG.

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Also, bit of a PSA, don't forget that all PMs made between players must have me and Mailliw in them!

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44 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Checking in! I’m enjoying Aman’s villager bucks, they seem like a cool idea, though a little biased, and more a way of quantifying reads then anything else. I’m going to wait a bit before posting some more concrete (as much as d1 analysis can be) analysis.

I’m a little more hesitant on Aman’s system. Certainly, they’re a neat concept, and would perhaps be useful in gauging players should Aman die and flip one way or the other, but the “village bucks” also seem like a good way for an Eliminator to attempt to pocket villagers or explicitly give a teammate quite literal “town cred.” I hold to this view in spite of, and perhaps because of, Aman’s comment on bribery. That said, I’m hanging onto mine. :P 

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Hey Mrake. Have I ever told you that you remind me of an old friend, Drake?

Since Fifth already responded to your role commentary, I don't really have much to add. But I do want to say is I didn't even consider Hazekillers being more useful for eliminators over villagers. Considering your post was the 2nd in the game and within the first hour of the game starting, I'm willing to bet this is a genuine discovery on your part rather than a deliberate misdirection. So in other words, Mrake just earned two whole bills of my patented Villager Bucks (TM).

  Reveal hidden contents

Villager Bucks in no way guarantee alignment, as they are simply a resource for measuring trust. Despite also being green, they cannot substitute for American Dollars. Please do not attempt to use them in real life. I cannot go to prison again, especially not for Forgery. 

I was about to ask if we can make PMs during the day or night, but instead of being lazy I just looked myself. So here's a big ole REMINDER: Every player can only make 1 PM every turn, but they CAN be group PMs. Considering that Tineye's have the ability to see who has PM's with who, please be very mindful of who you reach out to and how much you share in the thread about the contents of said PMs. If the elims have one, this could put some good roles in danger. As for Village Tineyes, don't forget to use this ability even if it seems a little underwhelming. If someone knows that I only had one PM with Mrake, for example, and I died fairly early on in the game with an important role, it could be indication that I claimed to him and he killed me for it. While not every situation will be as cut and dry, every piece of information the village has to determine the elims, the better. That all said, please do your best to keep being a village Tineye a secret. More likely than not, the elims would prefer to eliminate PMs entirely.

Now, for the question addressed to me. It's too early for me to have any suspicions. Only thing I can say with a relative degree of certainty is, that based on the 20% rule, we're dealing with either 3 or 4 elims and 1 kandra (serial killer). Since 17 is closer to 15 than 20, it's probably reasonable to assume 3 elims + SK. As always, however, I personally will treat this game as the worst scenario (4 elims) so that way I don't get caught off guard, while advising other villagers to keep this in mind as well.

Mostly just wanted to say I agree with your assessment of the kill roles. Also very curious how the kandra works. Part of me wants to kill them ASAP to find out. The other part wants them to live for a bit so they can really experience their role the way it was meant to.

Tangent aside, Devotary. Have yourself a Villager Buck (TM) for your effort.

  Reveal hidden contents

No, this is not bribery. Why would you even ask that?

Just responding to the bits between the ellipsis.

...

First off, I'm personally not a fan of poke votes. I don't find that they really accomplish anything, as they're more akin to a person shouting into the void than them actively trying to solve a crime. Since it's the beginning I'll naturally give people some leeway with their votes. I just am not willing to encourage it :P

...

Honestly should have just quoted Ventyl's post, since all I wanted to do was add my own welcome aboard. But anyway, @Ventyl, I'm very glad to have you join us and I look forward to getting to know you as a person and player!

...

I'm pretty sure the Kandra was stated to have secret abilities somewhere. Can't remember the exact wording but... yeah, no way they don't have something going for them.

I think you might have read Devotary's post wrong tbh. That last paragraph threw me off a bit, but after reading it the third time I think they're saying that if a Mistborn exists, they are certainly not an eliminator. Oh wait nvm that second sentence is... hm. I think the point is they don't want Thugs to survive lynches. If that's the case, can we maybe agree that no Village Thug should use their ability during the day? I don't think last minute wagons is the answer either and... hm. Yeah sorry Devotary, I won't vote on you but I'd like that Villager Buck (TM) back :P

Fifth, here. You can have it ^_^

ED1T:

Missed the most important thing. Vote count!

  • (1) WalinArk1002,
  • (1) AmanuensisMrakeDarshall,
  • (1) Fifth ScholarFuramirionind,
  • (1) Ark1002Ventyl,
  • (1) Devotary of SpontaneityFifth Scholar

ED2T:

Been waiting for someone else to post so I could prod those who haven't yet posted. Since I've only seen @Sart and @Aonar reading this thread since, I'll just go ahead and edit it in.

@Araris Valerian, @Rathmaskal, @Walin, @Straw, @_Stick_, @Snipexe, @xinoehp512.

The game has begun. Please do your best to post at least 2 times every turn. We shouldall be trying to avoid any deaths via inactivity filter, so going forward I'll consider it a part of my responsibility to reach out and get people involved if they're having trouble keeping up.

I’d disagree with the notion that Elims would automatically like PMs gone. Aside from the trollish but distinctly possible case of an Eliminator Tineye, there’s also the fact that PMs are useful for Elims on occasion, allowing for misdirection and pocketing. So while I’d perhaps be hesitant about claiming were I a village Tineye, it wouldn’t necessarily be an awful idea either.

Poke votes are helpful early on, as there’s little else to base discussion on than introductory posts. As content is continually created, their utility diminishes and eventually disappears altogether. But they’re nice to get the ball rolling, and provoke AI content from other players. 

21 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I like the idea of the Kandra in the elim team. It is also possible that in that case, the Kandra would have no extra kill? And would instead rely on the elim kill...

Actually, that's unlikely as the elims would have to start killing themselves if they are too far ahead...

I also think it would be too easy for the elims to find an elim!Kandra, though I admit, this does technically rely apon their secret abilities

I find the likelihood of an Eliminator Kandra close to zero. I forget who on the balance committee reviewed Striker’s ruleset, but compromised Eliminator teams who are unaware that they’re compromised is one of the biggest and most persistent breaks in SE history. Aside from simply doubting that it’d be allowed for the sake of balance, such a Kandra would have to execute both win conditions, being the last Eliminator standing, which would be even harder than the job of a regular SK. 

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

He woke up in the middle of a park and looked around.  At least, he assumed it was a park.  Grass and trees, looked like there were buildings nearby.

What had happened?  He couldn't remember anything about who he was, what he was doing, or how he had gotten here.

There were a large number of people gathered across the park from where he was, I'm sure that had something to do with what had happened.  He looked down.  He was wearing a police uniform.  Well, guess I'd better go help out.  I'm sure someone will recognize me and help clear these cobwebs.

~~

So, I have no idea where my RP is actually going to end up, but hopefully I'm able to have some fun with it.

As for some minor game analysis:

  • I agree that it's likely everyone has some sort of role.
  • I actually didn't see anything explicitly stating so, but does the kandra have a kill as well?  (Yes, Amanuensis, I'm working on my post right now :P - this is where I was mentioned, not trying to imply that Aman is the kandra...haha...although...maybe you knew I was mentioning the kandra in my post, so this was a role claim to me?)
  • I'm not sure if I'm interpreting the Thug ability differently than you Aman...but I don't think we'll be able to convince any Thugs to not protect themselves if they're up for the lynch.  If I'm reading correctly, they are only able to protect themselves in either the day or the night, right?
  • Based on the numbers in this game, I'm assuming we can expect 3-4 elims along with the kandra.
  • The hazekiller ability seems to imply that there are non-allomancers in the game.  Obviously the kandra would be in this boat.  I'm wondering if we can make a reasonable assumption that the kandra is the only non-allomancer?
  • As for the inactivity filter.  It's not as harsh as it initially seemed, but yes, I agree, please make sure to stay active everyone!  It's way more fun if everyone stays active!

I agree that non-Allomancer likely means “Kandra” or “another Hazekiller,” and doesn’t allow the Hazekiller to disrupt the Eliminator kill. As for Thugs protecting themselves, as Aman and I have brought up, if a Thug that survives a lynch doesn’t convincingly claim Mistborn, I’d be inclined to suspect them of being evil/Kandra unless it’s very late in the game and we absolutely need the extra villager. Even then I’d be suspicious. 

43 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The village wincon is very specifically to kill all of the rebels, and doesn't say we need to kill the Kandra in order to win. It will probably help, especially if elims start to die, but unlike last game we can afford to kill the rebels first.

The idea was since last minute lynches have the chance to kill Mistborn before they can use pewter to defend themselves, we should avoid last minute lynches to prevent that from happening. Unfortunately, letting the target see the lynch coming also gives Thugs the chance to protect themselves with pewter, and since the alignment of a Thug is not so easily determined, surviving the lynch is no longer indicative of being a villager. Aman's plan would solve this particular problem, as a village Mistborn can be distinguished from an elim Thug. Hopefully the extra time given by allowing lynchees ample time to see their end coming would give village Thugs an opportunity to avoid death by moving the lynch somewhere else. 

How will killing the Kandra help if they’re starting to kill Elims? I’ll confess I’m not really sure what you mean there. :P But yes, until the later stages of the game, the Kandra can likely be ignored unless we find evidence that they’ve allied themselves with the Elims. 

I do not plan on pulling out of a lynch regardless of what role somebody claims, unless it’s Mistborn. As such, I advise that we only switch off a Thug claim if we have reasons apart from the claim which would compel us to move votes. While your explanation of your other sentence makes sense, Devotary, I retain a hesitance about you, so I’ll leave my vote where it for now and then reaffirm or move it towards the end of the cycle. Speaking of which, @Furamirionind, I’d appreciate it if you could either elaborate on your reasons for keeping a vote on me, or remove it. 

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Didn't see this post before for some reason >>

Okay, that makes a lot of sense. 

Also, as a side note, I'd advise everybody not to easily role claim to people in PMs because worryingly enough, a lot of the villagers were very open with their roles in PMs in the last LG.

First, as I’ll insist a million times, openness in PMs did not ruin the village in LG54. It was my failure to act on the information I acquired in a sufficient frame of time which killed the village. And the fact that they killed me before I could use it. 

Second, role trades are fine. You’re free to deny them, but they’re also useful, whether as a sign of trust, an attempt to gain information and keep an eye on another player, or for doing role analysis. IMO, they’re unfairly maligned more than they’re rightfully appreciated. 

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5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Aside from simply doubting that it’d be allowed for the sake of balance, such a Kandra would have to execute both win conditions, being the last Eliminator standing, which would be even harder than the job of a regular SK. 

hm didn't think of it that way

6 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

First, as I’ll insist a million times, openness in PMs did not ruin the village in LG54. It was my failure to act on the information I acquired in a sufficient frame of time which killed the village. And the fact that they killed me before I could use it. 

what? xD I know nothing about LG54. I was referring to the last LG. Your game. :P Regardless, I believe you.

9 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Second, role trades are fine. You’re free to deny them, but they’re also useful, whether as a sign of trust, an attempt to gain information and keep an eye on another player, or for doing role analysis. IMO, they’re unfairly maligned more than they’re rightfully appreciated. 

Maybe, but not in the early cycles.

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33 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

For the kandra, I'm interpreting that the same as 'there are elims hiding among the village'.

Why do I think everyone likely has a role?  With 17 players and 10 allomantic abilities, plus the kandra, I'd say it's much more likely that there are duplicate abilities than 6 players just got left out of having abilities.

There probably are duplicate abilities, but it's also likely that some abilities were left out of the game. That also doesn't mean there aren't roleless players, although there also wouldn't be an action for the Hazekiller to block in that case. @StrikerEZ, do Hazekillers lose one of their three charges if the person they targeted doesn't take an action?

11 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

How will killing the Kandra help if they’re starting to kill Elims? I’ll confess I’m not really sure what you mean there. :P But yes, until the later stages of the game, the Kandra can likely be ignored unless we find evidence that they’ve allied themselves with the Elims. 

I do not plan on pulling out of a lynch regardless of what role somebody claims, unless it’s Mistborn. As such, I advise that we only switch off a Thug claim if we have reasons apart from the claim which would compel us to move votes. While your explanation of your other sentence makes sense, Devotary, I retain a hesitance about you, so I’ll leave my vote where it for now and then reaffirm or move it towards the end of the cycle.

I'm seeing the Kandra as similar to the Deepness from MR 33 or the Cthaeh from MR29, in that they want to maintain the balance of villagers to elims so they can be one of the last three players alive. As such if elims die early, the Kandra will likely switch to killing people presumed to be villagers. While the reverse is true, with the Kandra wanting to kill elims if we start out with several mislynches, the fact that the Kandra likely doesn't know who the elims are means they could still end up killing villagers.

Not that the Thug claims and then everyone switches off, more that giving the lynchee time to see the lynch coming also gives them time to persuade everyone that they are not the best candidate for a lynch.

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7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

@StrikerEZ, do Hazekillers lose one of their three charges if the person they targeted doesn't take an action?

Hazekillers will not lose one of their charges if their target doesn't take an action.

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Lafay looked up from the floor, many thoughts were flying through his head to try and explain his presence on the floor to the other officers. Unfortunately, the brightest thing he could come up with was, “Uhhh... Freaky weather we’re having right?” Lafay then decided that this moment was something Arr. K Thousantoo and Nedar Latfin would never let him live down.

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Arr looked at him, suspicious.

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12 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

potential Kandra kill

Interesting. I had just assumed the Kandra would have access to a kill.

I realize the rules don't actually confirm this.

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Hey Mrake. Have I ever told you that you remind me of an old friend, Drake?

Hiya Aman. I don't know who this Drake fellow is but he sounds pretty cool :P

I truncated this post to avoid length, but I like your analysis of PMs, and proportions of elims (it's always best to assume more elims when there is any doubt).

3 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:
  • it's likely everyone has some sort of role
  • I don't think we'll be able to convince any Thugs to not protect themselves if they're up for the lynch

Again, post truncated, but I am responding to these two points:

  • Be careful about making assertions like that, unless you're pretty sure you are right. If you turn out to be wrong, then you just claimed to have a special role, and you will be targeted for it.
  • I can definitely empathize with a villager wanting to live, but I also don't think there are that many cases where an extra cycle to persuade people would make the difference. In the end it will be a judgement call for any village thugs to make, depending on how late in the game it is and how likely they think it is that they could either convince the village of their innocence or catch an eliminator if they could just survive one more cycle.

Actually, now that I think about it, what lead you to believe everyone had a role, in the first place? The only way I can imagine a player having any grounds to make such a conjecture at this early stage in the game, with limited PM throughput preventing too many village roleclaims, is that you already know the roles of a decent sample of players from the eliminator doc. Rathmaskal.

This isn't hard proof of your guilt, but I'd say it's a more promising lead than I can typically spot for a D1 lynch.

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I don't know whether I'm interpreting this right, but it is trying to say that the kandra can be among the elim team?

Nice catch.

And because I think an eliminator or an elim!kandra would keep such a discovery to themself, you can have one of my Villager Bucks (TM).

I don't think it's likely, though, for balance reasons.

 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I find the likelihood of an Eliminator Kandra close to zero. I forget who on the balance committee reviewed Striker’s ruleset, but compromised Eliminator teams who are unaware that they’re compromised is one of the biggest and most persistent breaks in SE history. Aside from simply doubting that it’d be allowed for the sake of balance, such a Kandra would have to execute both win conditions, being the last Eliminator standing, which would be even harder than the job of a regular SK. 

^this. It could really mess with the eliminator team. 

Incidentally, executing both the eliminator and SK win conditions at once without any ability but the elim faction kill, is also doable :D

 

What about a kandra mistborn?

A mistborn wouldn't generally make sense in this setting, so it's not out of the question for the mistborn to be a secret role. And we know Bleeder was capable of switching out different spikes to gain different abilities, just only one ability at a time (which is exactly how the mistborn mechanic works).

And Serial Killers are notoriously hard to win as, so this is actually one of the most balanced ways to use the mistborn role as it is written. And it isn't even that much of a power-up for the Serial Killer, since they still only have one action, and would need to sacrifice their coinshot kill in order to use a different metal.

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2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Hazekillers will not lose one of their charges if their target doesn't take an action.

I apologize for the double post, but there's no easy way to edit a quote into an existing post.

Do hazekillers know how many charges they have left at any given time?

If so, hazekillers might be somewhat more useful to the village than I initially thought. You could hazekill a known allomancer, and if it didn't use up any of your charges, then that could implicate them in making the eliminator kill.

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8 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Actually, now that I think about it, what lead you to believe everyone had a role, in the first place? The only way I can imagine a player having any grounds to make such a conjecture at this early stage in the game, with limited PM throughput preventing too many village roleclaims, is that you already know the roles of a decent sample of players from the eliminator doc. Rathmaskal.

This isn't hard proof of your guilt, but I'd say it's a more promising lead than I can typically spot for a D1 lynch.

Other than my quick reasoning that having 11 unique roles and 17 players already put us most of the way there?

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3 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Checking in! I’m enjoying Aman’s villager bucks, they seem like a cool idea, though a little biased, and more a way of quantifying reads then anything else. I’m going to wait a bit before posting some more concrete (as much as d1 analysis can be) analysis.

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m a little more hesitant on Aman’s system. Certainly, they’re a neat concept, and would perhaps be useful in gauging players should Aman die and flip one way or the other, but the “village bucks” also seem like a good way for an Eliminator to attempt to pocket villagers or explicitly give a teammate quite literal “town cred.” I hold to this view in spite of, and perhaps because of, Aman’s comment on bribery. That said, I’m hanging onto mine. :P

For the record, Villager Bucks (TM) aren't really quantifiable. It's just a joke I decided I would roll with for the game. But for Fifth's response, I shall award him yet another Villager Buck (TM). I would expect villagers to be more inherently suspicious of it / go out of the way to analyze it, even if a little.

3 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

...

Hiya Aman. I don't know who this Drake fellow is but he sounds pretty cool :P

I truncated this post to avoid length, but I like your analysis of PMs, and proportions of elims (it's always best to assume more elims when there is any doubt).

...

Again, post truncated, but I am responding to these two points:

  • Be careful about making assertions like that, unless you're pretty sure you are right. If you turn out to be wrong, then you just claimed to have a special role, and you will be targeted for it.
  • I can definitely empathize with a villager wanting to live, but I also don't think there are that many cases where an extra cycle to persuade people would make the difference. In the end it will be a judgement call for any village thugs to make, depending on how late in the game it is and how likely they think it is that they could either convince the village of their innocence or catch an eliminator if they could just survive one more cycle.

Actually, now that I think about it, what lead you to believe everyone had a role, in the first place? The only way I can imagine a player having any grounds to make such a conjecture at this early stage in the game, with limited PM throughput preventing too many village roleclaims, is that you already know the roles of a decent sample of players from the eliminator doc. Rathmaskal.

This isn't hard proof of your guilt, but I'd say it's a more promising lead than I can typically spot for a D1 lynch.

...

And because I think an eliminator or an elim!kandra would keep such a discovery to themself, you can have one of my Villager Bucks (TM).

I don't think it's likely, though, for balance reasons.

...

Drake is a really cool dude! I hope I'll get to play with him again soon.

...

I had the same knee jerk reaction as you, if I'm honest, but I decided to let it lie to see if anyone else noticed. I'm not mistaken, he expanded on the why when replying to Stick.

3 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

For the kandra, I'm interpreting that the same as 'there are elims hiding among the village'.

Why do I think everyone likely has a role?  With 17 players and 10 allomantic abilities, plus the kandra, I'd say it's much more likely that there are duplicate abilities than 6 players just got left out of having abilities.

Yeah, it was this one. I can see a villager coming to this conclusion, but I do agree it's a dangerous assumption to make. Because I haven't played games recently / been very active in the last one I was in, I'm unsure if role-madness has been more common or less. So again, I could see a villager assuming there are no roleless.

Not a bad lead though. And as I typed this, Rath has responded. Let me see what he's got to say.

Ah. He just pointed out the same thing.

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10 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Other than my quick reasoning that having 11 unique roles and 17 players already put us most of the way there?

Hm. Fair enough.

That was a quick enough response time that I'm inclined to think you're being sincere. Rathmaskal.

It doesn't guarantee that all of those roles are in the game, especially since they are mostly well-established roles that our resident GM wouldn't necessarily be itching to field test, but I can see why that might be a reasonable basis to predict a role madness setup.

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