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Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel


StrikerEZ

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6 hours ago, Coop772 said:

My reasons for choosing lum are not game relevant I assure you. It was a toss up in game, as, like you said, I was voting for self preservation. I figured out of game reasons were better than RNGesus

Did you not realise that Ventyl claimed to be Soothing Stick's vote off of Straw, or did you believe the Soothe wouldn't go through?

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Day 6 - Another Fallen

Fade was like any other officer. He did his job, patrolling the streets, arresting anyone who needed arresting, and doing lots of paperwork when he was in the station. There was hardly any time in his life for other things besides his job, but he liked it, so it was fine.
Which is why he'd found it so odd when Lyrelle had said there were other rebels hidden in the police force. He had tried to figure out who could possibly be rebels, and while some of his suspicions might've been right, others were wrong. He was just a cop, not some detective.
He was walking the halls of the station at night when he heard footsteps behind him. He knew what that meant these days.
He quickly began running as fast as he could, but there was only so much you can do when you're being chased by rebels trying to kill you.

~

Araris Valerian was killed! They were a Police Smoker!

PMs are open, but remember that each player may only make one new PM each turn. Group PMs are allowed. All PMs must have me and Mailliw in them.

There is a two-vote minimum for a lynch and a tied lynch results in one of the tied lynchees’ death. 

Player List:

Spoiler
  1. Amanuensis, aka "Detective Wilco Renaud" Rebel Lurcher
  2. Ark1002, aka "Arr K. Thousantoo" Police Mistborn
  3. Lumgol, aka "TBD"
  4. Fifth Scholar, aka “Serdig Darillid”
  5. Araris Valerian, aka “Fade” Police Smoker
  6. Ventyl, aka “Lafay Etteax”
  7. Furamirionind, aka "Furamirionind" Police Hazekiller
  8. Rathmaskal Police Soother
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity, aka "Sindale"
  10. Sart Police Lurcher
  11. _Stick_, aka "Stick"
  12. Young Bard, aka " Nedar Latfin" Police Officer
  13. Aonar, aka "Ainm Lathair" Kandra
  14. Coop772 
  15. Straw, aka "Mertis tyl Loesp" Police Hazekiller
  16. Drake Marshall, aka “Thomas Blackburn” Police Tineye
  17. xinoehp512 Rebel Officer

This turn will last 48 hours and will end at 10 PM CDT on June 26th.

Edited by StrikerEZ
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Okay, well that’s not good, we no longer have a smoker. Though there is six people left and at least one elim. So I’m going to employ a new tactic, my patented Late Game Poke Voting. So Lumgol. Also, I find her suspicious after reading Fifths analysis, but this could be a Fifth and Lum team with Fifth trying to distance himself from Lum, although Lum or Fifith could both be the last elim too.

Edited by Ventyl
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So we have six players left. Here they are, with claimed roles attached. 

Lum-Thug
Fifth- Smoker
Ventyl- Soother
Devotary- Seeker
Stick-
Coop-
One of these players is a Hazekiller, as somebody kindly roleblocked me last night. Three village Hazekillers seems excessive, and I'm also not feeling too confident about two village Soothers and two village Smokers as there wouldn't be any real purpose for two village Smokers unless there's an elim Seeker or Soother or even Rioter hidden in here.
 

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5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So we have six players left. Here they are, with claimed roles attached. 

Lum-Thug
Fifth- Smoker
Ventyl- Soother
Devotary- Seeker
Stick-
Coop-
One of these players is a Hazekiller, as somebody kindly roleblocked me last night. Three village Hazekillers seems excessive, and I'm also not feeling too confident about two village Soothers and two village Smokers as there wouldn't be any real purpose for two village Smokers unless there's an elim Seeker or Soother or even Rioter hidden in here.
 

Assuming you’re telling the truth, did you maybe discuss with anybody in PMs about who you planned to target last turn?

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Right. So it’s probably high time I came clean with my role, or rather my lack thereof; I’m Roleless. I’ve been claiming Smoker to all and sundry to try and draw the Elim kill, but at this point it’s basically an exercise in futility, as apparently I’m to survive and watch all my village reads slowly dying. 

To start, I’m going to go with Devotary, as I don’t buy her claim of being hazekilled, as with no remaining Lurchers, killing her as an outed Seeker would have been a far more effective strategy than eliminating Araris, who never said much of anything about his role. It’s clear that one of her and Ventyl is evil, as otherwise there’s little point to having a Smoker. Perhaps both, if Stick is what I think she is. @_Stick_, do you stand by what you roleclaimed to me, or would you like to modify your claim and publicise it? Similarly, what are you, @Coop772

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1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@_Stick_, do you stand by what you roleclaimed to me, or would you like to modify your claim and publicise it?

Yeah I stand by it 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Similarly, what are you, @Coop772

Well, there’s still a tineye out there (since PMs are still open) who hasn’t publicly claimed afaik. So  unless I’m the tineye unless people have false claimed...

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5 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Assuming you’re telling the truth, did you maybe discuss with anybody in PMs about who you planned to target last turn?

Fifth asked me to rolescan him at night, to confirm that he was a Smoker assuming Ventyl proved his Soothing abilities.

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I don’t buy her claim of being hazekilled, as with no remaining Lurchers, killing her as an outed Seeker would have been a far more effective strategy than eliminating Araris, who never said much of anything about his role. It’s clear that one of her and Ventyl is evil, as otherwise there’s little point to having a Smoker.

It is highly unlikely that we would have lynched Araris today, even in a contest of two claimed Smokers, while it seems you are perfectly willing to lynch me. An elim Hazekiller who hadn't used up many of their charges is well within reason to roleblock me to block my scan while killing the trusted villager. On that note, I think that means Aonar's kill was not Allomantic in nature, and Aman died because roleblocking Aonar didn't work.

Assuming an elim Hazekiller, Ventyl is hard cleared, as the elims could not have Soothed, Hazekilled, and regular killed in the same cycle. This may be the time for the Tineye to claim and present their scan results. In the meantime, the Hazekiller could only be Fifth, Stick, or Coop, and I'm leaning towards Fifth being the Hazekiller at this point.

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4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fifth asked me to rolescan him at night, to confirm that he was a Smoker assuming Ventyl proved his Soothing abilities.

I did, but that was really just so you could scan me as Roleless. And now that you’ve done so, you presumably can’t stand to tell the truth? Or you could never scan in the first place, and Ventyl was your teammate? I find a third Hazekiller incredibly implausible, even for the Eliminators, and knowing that I’m Roleless, it’d mean that one of Lumgol, Stick and Coop is lying; while that’s not impossible, if they are all telling the truth about their roles, then you’re the one who’s lying to us. Which I find far more likely. 

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It is highly unlikely that we would have lynched Araris today, even in a contest of two claimed Smokers, while it seems you are perfectly willing to lynch me. An elim Hazekiller who hadn't used up many of their charges is well within reason to roleblock me to block my scan while killing the trusted villager. On that note, I think that means Aonar's kill was not Allomantic in nature, and Aman died because roleblocking Aonar didn't work.

Assuming an elim Hazekiller, Ventyl is hard cleared, as the elims could not have Soothed, Hazekilled, and regular killed in the same cycle. This may be the time for the Tineye to claim and present their scan results. In the meantime, the Hazekiller could only be Fifth, Stick, or Coop, and I'm leaning towards Fifth being the Hazekiller at this point.

I’m willing to lynch you now, because you’ve essentially used a ploy and a gambit to frame me. I’m pretty sure you’re on a team with Ventyl, so while I would like him dead, you’re a higher priority target as I’m far more confident that you’re evil. With the assumption that I’m a rebel Hazekiller, you ignore several facts which destroy the idea of me being an evil Hazekiller with yourself as the village Seeker. If I was truly concerned about being scanned as a Hazekiller, I’d have killed you one of these last two nights over a shot in the dark like Araris, or even a cleared villager like Drake; without a village Lurcher, the PRs would be a higher priority for the Elim kill. You also bring up no evidence as to why I’m evil outside a situation in which only you and I can attest as to what actually happened; knowing that I’m not a Hazekiller, I’m forced to conclude you made the entire situation up to frame me, and therefore view you as evil for it. Also, if I’m the Hazekiller, why wouldn’t I be worried about being scanned on cycles other than this one? Sure, I’d claimed Smoker to you, but any one of a few people I’d told my actual role to could have told you that was a lie, and you could have called my bluff any time you wanted. Killing you far earlier would make sense if I was on such a team. Yet here you are, having survived as an essentially outed Seeker for three cycles without Lurcher protection. 

Right, so Ventyl is not hard-cleared; in fact, he’s probably your teammate, but let’s play along in a world where I was Elim and did all the things you mentioned. Again, if I was so concerned about your Seeking, why not kill you and accept Araris’ presence as probably-village rather than killing him and creating the situation you mention, which creates two cleared villagers, reveals an Eliminator role, and an Eliminator as well? It simply makes no sense at all. As an Elim, I don’t have to lynch Araris; I just have to string up Lum, Stick or Coop (whichever isn’t on my team in your world), kill Araris or Ventyl and cruise to victory. Assuming an Eliminator team acting rationally, your version of events doesn’t hold up to inspection. It does make perfect sense, however, if you were an Eliminator yourself, and want to get a final mislynch off on a player who is already cast in a poor light from earlier lynches. 

@_Stick_ @Coop772 @Lumgol I don’t trust you guys fully, but if I’m right about my Devotary/Ventyl team we need to all vote against Devotary if we want this lynch to succeed. 

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5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Fifth asked me to rolescan him at night, to confirm that he was a Smoker assuming Ventyl proved his Soothing abilities

 

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I did, but that was really just so you could scan me as Roleless. And now that you’ve done so, you presumably can’t stand to tell the truth? Or you could never scan in the first place, and Ventyl was your teammate? 

Well from my perspective this is just a matter of who to trust here, honestly.  

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Assuming an elim Hazekiller, Ventyl is hard cleared, as the elims could not have Soothed, Hazekilled, and regular killed in the same cycle. This may be the time for the Tineye to claim and present their scan results. In the meantime, the Hazekiller could only be Fifth, Stick, or Coop, and I'm leaning towards Fifth being the Hazekiller at this point.

Fifth is right in saying that Ventyl's only hard-cleared if the two of you aren't elims together, and as of now we don't really have any proof that you were RB'd at all. Although, I don't think village!Devotary would have any way of proving that even if you wanted to. Which...I suppose is kind of what makes it a good opportunity for elim!devotary to make such a move. Also do you have any reasons other than your roleblock claim to suspect Fifth of being the Hazekiller?

For now, Devotary. Mostly because I already had my doubts about you after the Aman flip, as I've stated multiple times in my previous posts. Except...I'm starting to think I've been trusting-but-not-quite-trusting-but-still-eventually-trusting Fifth too much this game, so I might change my vote depending on how my thoughts progress over the next 24 hours. I really don't wanna mess this lynch up when we're close to lylo. But for now I gotta go to bed.

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1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I did, but that was really just so you could scan me as Roleless. And now that you’ve done so, you presumably can’t stand to tell the truth? Or you could never scan in the first place, and Ventyl was your teammate? I find a third Hazekiller incredibly implausible, even for the Eliminators, and knowing that I’m Roleless, it’d mean that one of Lumgol, Stick and Coop is lying; while that’s not impossible, if they are all telling the truth about their roles, then you’re the one who’s lying to us. Which I find far more likely. 

It would have been far, far easier for me to have claimed to scan you as roleless rather than making up a story about being Hazekilled. You know I can scan, as I used my abilities to determine that Rath was a Soother and that Aonar was not a Coinshot. We don't actually have a claim from @Coop772; are you the Tineye, and if so, what are your scan results?

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m willing to lynch you now, because you’ve essentially used a ploy and a gambit to frame me. I’m pretty sure you’re on a team with Ventyl, so while I would like him dead, you’re a higher priority target as I’m far more confident that you’re evil. With the assumption that I’m a rebel Hazekiller, you ignore several facts which destroy the idea of me being an evil Hazekiller with yourself as the village Seeker. If I was truly concerned about being scanned as a Hazekiller, I’d have killed you one of these last two nights over a shot in the dark like Araris, or even a cleared villager like Drake; without a village Lurcher, the PRs would be a higher priority for the Elim kill. You also bring up no evidence as to why I’m evil outside a situation in which only you and I can attest as to what actually happened; knowing that I’m not a Hazekiller, I’m forced to conclude you made the entire situation up to frame me, and therefore view you as evil for it. Also, if I’m the Hazekiller, why wouldn’t I be worried about being scanned on cycles other than this one? Sure, I’d claimed Smoker to you, but any one of a few people I’d told my actual role to could have told you that was a lie, and you could have called my bluff any time you wanted. Killing you far earlier would make sense if I was on such a team. Yet here you are, having survived as an essentially outed Seeker for three cycles without Lurcher protection. 

I don't actually know that you're the Hazekiller. Right now, the main evidence pointing towards that is you pretty much knew who I was going to scan every cycle and were the only one who knew that I was going to make my scan N5 instead of D5, while the main reason you wouldn't be the elim Hazekiller is that I told you Aonar wasn't the Coinshot and yet the elims still killed him. Honestly, that latter part is pretty convincing. I know my role, I know Ventyl cannot be an elim Hazekiller, and it's much easier for a Hazekiller to claim roleless rather than Thug, so you, Stick, and Coop are the likely Hazekillers.

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Fifth is right in saying that Ventyl's only hard-cleared if the two of you aren't elims together, and as of now we don't really have any proof that you were RB'd at all. Although, I don't think village!Devotary would have any way of proving that even if you wanted to. Which...I suppose is kind of what makes it a good opportunity for elim!devotary to make such a move. Also do you have any reasons other than your roleblock claim to suspect Fifth of being the Hazekiller?

There's not any proof unless a Hazekiller decides to claim, other than the fact that this would be a foolish plan when I could just claim to have scanned Fifth as roleless. Fifth is a possible Hazekiller because he can't be ruled out for his claimed role. It's entirely possible that you are the Hazekiller.

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Scanning me as Roleless would prove nothing, though. You know this; it would be consistent with my Smoker claims and you’d not have any meaningful lynch to push. But claiming to have been blocked by a Hazekiller is much more powerful of an assertion, allowing you to cast immediate suspicion on a group of people who I mostly trust; however, given that Coop is a non-Hazekiller role, and that Stick and Lum contacted me with their claims as early as C1 and C2 and haven’t changed them, I’m inclined to believe that you’ve completely fabricated this Hazekiller. The only player it would make sense for, should it be real, would be Stick or Lum, and even if one of them are lying, that still doesn’t answer why we have a Smoker; it would make Ventyl evil instead of you, as that’s the only reason a village Smoker makes any amount of sense. All this added up makes me fairly happy where my vote is, though there’s a compelling argument for lynching Ventyl and then killing a Devotary on a coin flip if we’re wrong; one of the two is evil if we’ve got a Smoker around. 

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I’m going to point out that if Devotary flips village, you’re probably next lynch target Fifth. Lumgol

Vote Count

Devotary (2): Stick, Fifth

Fifth (1): Ventyl


Right now, I’m confident that Fifth is an elim, so there are three possibilities in my mind. First possibility is that Fifth is the last elim and this cycle or next could be the last, assuming the elims don’t kill us all. Second possiblility is a Stick and Fifth elim team, I say this because of how Stick is kind of just following Fifth around like a puppy, although they did say they could change their vote, so this is the least likely possiblility in my opinion. Last possiblility is a Fifth and Lumgol team like I mentioned before.

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18 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Right now, I’m confident that Fifth is an elim, so there are three possibilities in my mind. First possibility is that Fifth is the last elim and this cycle or next could be the last, assuming the elims don’t kill us all. Second possiblility is a Stick and Fifth elim team, I say this because of how Stick is kind of just following Fifth around like a puppy, although they did say they could change their vote, so this is the least likely possiblility in my opinion. Last possiblility is a Fifth and Lumgol team like I mentioned before.

Is there a reason for your sudden confidence in my alignment? I’ll admit my voting history has been subpar, but so has everyone’s; we’re only alive right now because of Aonar. Meanwhile, I was one of the only voices who reserved a modicum of distrust for Aman and his WGG when it was first mentioned, and though I ended up on the wrong side of things later, that was due to me listening too much to the voices telling me to trust him, and not enough to my inner paranoia. I understand I’ll likely be lynched next cycle if I’m wrong, though as the game will likely be over thanks to an Eliminator vote majority of you and whoever else your teammate is, or perhaps two of Lum/Coop/Stick, I don’t think it’ll particularly matter. 

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1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Scanning me as Roleless would prove nothing, though. You know this; it would be consistent with my Smoker claims and you’d not have any meaningful lynch to push. But claiming to have been blocked by a Hazekiller is much more powerful of an assertion, allowing you to cast immediate suspicion on a group of people who I mostly trust; however, given that Coop is a non-Hazekiller role, and that Stick and Lum contacted me with their claims as early as C1 and C2 and haven’t changed them, I’m inclined to believe that you’ve completely fabricated this Hazekiller. The only player it would make sense for, should it be real, would be Stick or Lum, and even if one of them are lying, that still doesn’t answer why we have a Smoker; it would make Ventyl evil instead of you, as that’s the only reason a village Smoker makes any amount of sense. All this added up makes me fairly happy where my vote is, though there’s a compelling argument for lynching Ventyl and then killing a Devotary on a coin flip if we’re wrong; one of the two is evil if we’ve got a Smoker around. 

There would be little reason and a lot of risk for elim!Devotary to make up a Hazekiller. If I hadn't been roleblocked last night, I would probably continue to focus on Snip, with Lum as a potential teammate. With Araris dead as a Smoker, I would have suspected you and Ventyl for your claimed roles. Falseclaiming a roleblock when it would be so much easier to claim a null result on you puts needless attention on me without much in the way of gain.

Who can verify that you claimed roleless? Also, if you're not a Smoker, why did you claim that you and Araris were Smoked D1? That was one of the major reasons I considered a Drake-Rath team, and since I sincerely doubt Araris roleclaimed to you, the possibility that Rath attempted to save Drake should not have been a likely one.

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Fifth I’m suspicious in you now mainly because of how fast you switched to thinking Devotary and I am elims, when before you seemed to have trusted both of us until this cycle and last. Yes, you being on the wrong side of basically every lynch is apart of it, but I’ve been on the wrong side of lynched too, so that’d be hypocritical for me to base my whole argument on. Also as Devotary just pointed out, why would an elim!Devotary false claim a hazekiller when it would result in her death, it just wouldn’t be a logical thing to do. I will admit, that could be what they want us to think, but I’m more worried about you being an elim than Devotary, partly because of gut feeling, but also because of my aforementioned reasons. I was going to vote on Devotary, but then after looking at how your mentality changed from me being super village to super elim, it seems too dramatic to not be an elim trying to remove village!soother. I hope this post clears up some things and can convince the 3 other people to vote, or for Stick to change their vote, which would hard-clear them as village in my book.

 

It is apparent to me that yes, if Devotary flips elim I’m going to look very very bad, but then again if I knew Devotary was an elim, why would I take this risk? It wouldn’t be sane, and I consider myself sane.

sorry for double post

Edited by Ventyl
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37 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

There would be little reason and a lot of risk for elim!Devotary to make up a Hazekiller. If I hadn't been roleblocked last night, I would probably continue to focus on Snip, with Lum as a potential teammate. With Araris dead as a Smoker, I would have suspected you and Ventyl for your claimed roles. Falseclaiming a roleblock when it would be so much easier to claim a null result on you puts needless attention on me without much in the way of gain.

The reason would be to get me killed, while conveniently not needing to provide scan results on a cycle when they’d be the most informative; additionally, if we assume a team of yourself and Ventyl, it allows you to submit the Eliminator kill unimpeded. The issue with Devotary’s claim is that it’s not possible unless both she and Ventyl are evil. 

1) We know there’s a village Smoker; therefore, because there needs to be a reason for that Smoker’s existence, one of Devotary and Ventyl are evil. 

2) Devotary lays out a scenario in which both she and Ventyl are village; in this scenario, a third Hazekiller, which has somehow escaped detection this entire game, and another player, use their actions to roleblock her and kill Araris. 

3) Since 1) and 2) contradict each other, Devotary is lying about what happened last night, and therefore is evil. 

Ignoring the wisdom of you issuing this claim, which I still think is something you would do, its logic falls apart; either we as a village received a Smoker which can only harm us, which makes zero sense, or Devotary is lying, which doesn’t make complete sense but makes a lot more sense than a backwards Smoker. Ventyl isn’t even necessarily evil with her, though I suspect that to be the case. 

44 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Who can verify that you claimed roleless? Also, if you're not a Smoker, why did you claim that you and Araris were Smoked D1? That was one of the major reasons I considered a Drake-Rath team, and since I sincerely doubt Araris roleclaimed to you, the possibility that Rath attempted to save Drake should not have been a likely one.

Stick, Aman and Araris. Most of which are now dead. Araris did not roleclaim to me, though I’ve suspected he was a Smoker for quite a while based on PoE, and implications from statements he made in our PM when I started pressing him on his role. And it was possible, and something I continued to consider. I tend to play with a very paranoid playstyle, so while Drake/Rath soothing conspiracy was unlikely, it was still possible, particularly with the inference I made regarding Smoker!Araris. 

40 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

then after looking at how your mentality changed from me being super village to super elim, it seems too dramatic to not be an elim trying to remove village!soother. I hope this post clears up some things and can convince the 3 other people to vote, or for Stick to change their vote, which would hard-clear them as village in my book.

It is apparent to me that yes, if Devotary flips elim I’m going to look very very bad, but then again if I knew Devotary was an elim, why would I take this risk? It wouldn’t be sane, and I consider myself sane.

Regardless of what alignment you believe myself and Devotary to be, the conflict which both of us have essentially forced is sane from whichever alignment we’ve drawn up to be. This is the deciding lynch. If the Elims get a mislynch here, they needn’t worry about future lynches, which is why your support for Devotary should you be her teammate makes sense. If you two can lynch today and kill tonight, you win. In terms of my mentality shifting, it was partly because Devotary forced this to come to a head, but with my fears of a village Smoker confirmed, I’d probably be in the same place I am now even had she not pulled this gambit. Also, it’s hardly accurate to say I had you as completely village before today; I’d been souring on your alignment since the end of D4. 

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