Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Stick.]

I think I'll wait and see what @Rathmaskal has to say

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Hmmmm. 

Okay. Amanuensis, I take back what I said earlier. You can still talk me out of your lynch. But only for one more cycle.  The logic here is that if Aman is telling the truth, Rath is not only an Eliminator but also a Soother, and killing him will cripple the evil team’s voting power and ability to hammer. Tomorrow, unless something truly crazy comes up, I will continue to support an Aman lynch though. 

More thoughts on this in a bit. 

Now that the truth is out, I wanted to say that I've been very impressed by you this game. Even though we've been on opposing sides this whole time, it was a lot of fun working (and panicking) with you. Your instincts on me since D1 were pretty much right. I hope some day in the future we can be villagers together, or better yet, eliminators 

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

...this game's crazy

Emphasis Mine

Your wincon is still as stated in the rules: to be the last player standing, so we'll have to lynch you at some point. And because the coinshot apparently claimed to you (seriously guys y'all have to chill with these claims :P), you'll just choose them as your new host and then go on a killing spree...That's one horrifying thought. I don't know if there's a way we can prevent it? Thoughts, everyone?

wait why is Rath a Soother if Aman's telling the truth?

Insanely crazy, right!? And fun too. Even though circumstances seem to have conspired against me, it's still been a hoot.

Honestly choosing the Coinshot as my successor is a bit too obvious. There's no way I'd do it. But if anyone is interested, feel free to PM me and make your case.

Together we can make Elendel great again!

ED1T:

In retrospect, referencing Trump probably wasn't the best idea...

ED2T:

Oh right, vote tally.

• (2) Amandra:  Araris Valerian, _Stick_, 
• (3) Rebelmaskal: Amandra, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian]

Well, I can't say that this makes me any less suspicious of Aman. If he is an elim, this would probably also be his smartest play, since the real Kandra wouldn't want to reveal themselves. There is enough general suspicion of Rath that we would believe an alignment scan. If Rath is village, then after the lynch and night kill we will be at 5-3-1 or 6-2-1. Whoever the kandra really is would basically have to side with the village, so we would probably have 2 chances to get the lynch right, give or take some with a Coinshot. That's not horrible odds for winning.

It honestly seems to me that lynching Aman first is a less risky option. However, it does make sense that a Kandra wouldn't want a village lurcher prolonging the game, and that claiming lurcher over thug would prevent the chances of a repeat elim attack. I'll tentatively switch to Rath, but I do think everyone should consider the risk that Aman is lying again.

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I can't say that this makes me any less suspicious of Aman. If he is an elim, this would probably also be his smartest play, since the real Kandra wouldn't want to reveal themselves. There is enough general suspicion of Rath that we would believe an alignment scan. If Rath is village, then after the lynch and night kill we will be at 5-3-1 or 6-2-1. Whoever the kandra really is would basically have to side with the village, so we would probably have 2 chances to get the lynch right, give or take some with a Coinshot. That's not horrible odds for winning.

It honestly seems to me that lynching Aman first is a less risky option. However, it does make sense that a Kandra wouldn't want a village lurcher prolonging the game, and that claiming lurcher over thug would prevent the chances of a repeat elim attack. I'll tentatively switch to Rath, but I do think everyone should consider the risk that Aman is lying again.

On that subject, we should probably figure out who might be on Rath's team. Look over posts, interactions, etc, so the village has a say in who I scan tonight.

[Araris Valerian]

The first thing that stands out to me is that Rath suggests the game might be role madness. That doesn't fit with him being on the same team as xino.

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Honestly choosing the Coinshot as my successor is a bit too obvious. There's no way I'd do it. But if anyone is interested, feel free to PM me and make your case.

Together we can make Elendel great again!

I would def choose the coinshot anyway. It’s an IKYK at this point 

I wonder how many traitors have PM’d/plan to PM you  

[Amanuensis]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The first thing that stands out to me is that Rath suggests the game might be role madness. That doesn't fit with him being on the same team as xino.

Could have been distancing, could have been Xino hadn't visited the doc yet to tell his team his role. I remember Drake bringing up that it was a weird suggestion for Rath to make if he only knew his own role.

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I would def choose the coinshot anyway. It’s an IKYK at this point 

I wonder how many traitors have PM’d/plan to PM you  

None so far

Edited June 19, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Araris Valerian]

Yeah, xino could have not visited the doc at that point, given his low activity this game. Some GMs put that stuff in the doc beforehand. I don't think that Rath and Devotary are on the same team, since he mentions having a PM with Devotary. It could be intentionally misleading, but the comment seems too casual for that.

Quote

Drake

I am conveniently in a PM with both leading lynch candidates.  So I have them jousting with each other for my vote currently.

As I mentioned earlier, however, I'm leaning more elim on Fura than Devotary.

 

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah, xino could have not visited the doc at that point, given his low activity this game. Some GMs put that stuff in the doc beforehand. I don't think that Rath and Devotary are on the same team, since he mentions having a PM with Devotary. It could be intentionally misleading, but the comment seems too casual for that.

I scanned Devotary N2 and Fifth last night, so they're clean. But yeah, that "jousting" comment in retrospect looks really bad. I could have probably used it as a piece of evidence to lynch him had I not needed to reveal like this.

[Araris Valerian]

*facepalm* of course, I probably should have done more than skim your post about that 

[Straw]

I'm going to trust the Rath lynch. I really hope that Aman's not bluffing.

[Rathmaskal]

Wow, well played Aman, wait until I'm very clear about the fact that I'm not going to be around much and then try to get me lynched while I won't have much time to defend myself.

So, #1, I am a soother.  I've only claimed that to one person 100%.  My only other claim has been that my role won't kill people.

Next, I have not used my abilities yet.  There have been votes soothed, but I have not done so.

I will be voting on Aman of course.  I'm glad I had a 30 minute break to at least try to stem the tide of whatever is happening right now.

For whichever of you are not on the elim team.  How is lynching me the better option here?  You have someone who is either confirmed SK (regardless of how he decides to spin it) or someone who has mostly been put under suspicion by the other person up for lynch.  Even if you don't 100% agree with my logic, you have to realize that when I flip village, you're going to be targeted yourself by the rest of the village for flipping to voting on my so quickly.

[Araris Valerian]

@Rathmaskal That doesn't really make sense. If you flip elim, we will lynch Aman for being the Kandra. If you flip village, we will lynch Aman for being something not village. Either way, nobody except Aman needs to be too worried about the lynch next cycle.

Also, you never clarified why you voted on Aman rather than Sart last cycle.

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Rathmaskal said:

Wow, well played Aman, wait until I'm very clear about the fact that I'm not going to be around much and then try to get me lynched while I won't have much time to defend myself.

So, #1, I am a soother.  I've only claimed that to one person 100%.  My only other claim has been that my role won't kill people.

Next, I have not used my abilities yet.  There have been votes soothed, but I have not done so.

I will be voting on Aman of course.  I'm glad I had a 30 minute break to at least try to stem the tide of whatever is happening right now.

For whichever of you are not on the elim team.  How is lynching me the better option here?  You have someone who is either confirmed SK (regardless of how he decides to spin it) or someone who has mostly been put under suspicion by the other person up for lynch.  Even if you don't 100% agree with my logic, you have to realize that when I flip village, you're going to be targeted yourself by the rest of the village for flipping to voting on my so quickly.

I'm sorry, Rath. I didn't realize you weren't going to be around much. I sincerely promise it wasn't a factor. If you said it somewhere, I must have missed it.

That said, I'm not entirely sure I understand your last paragraph. 

[Rathmaskal]

6 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Rathmaskal That doesn't really make sense. If you flip elim, we will lynch Aman for being the Kandra. If you flip village, we will lynch Aman for being something not village. Either way, nobody except Aman needs to be too worried about the lynch next cycle.

Also, you never clarified why you voted on Aman rather than Sart last cycle.

You, Fifth, and Stick all started the cycle voting on Aman.  Based on Aman saying, "Hey, I'm the bad guy, but Rath is too, but a different kind and because he's not me, he's worse" you switched your vote to me.  That seems super sketchy to me.  If I flipped elim, villagers should see that as distancing.  Since I will flip village if lynched, villages should see that as mislynch opportunism.

Say there are 3 elims remaining (I'd say that's the most likely situation).  Assuming Striker didn't pull a 'hey, I'm going to announce a faction and then not have it exist' trick, then we're sitting at 7-3-1.  Here are the likely next few cycles:

• I'm lynched - 6-3-1
• Elim kill - 5-3-1
• Kandra lynch - 5-3-0
• Elim kill - 4-3-0

Now we're one mislynch away from losing.

OK, if there are 2 elims, we're in a bit better shape:

• I'm lynched - 7-2-1
• Elim kill - 6-2-1
• Kandra lynch - 6-2-0
• Elim kill - 5-2-0

That gives us one cycle of leeway at least.

Now, say we lynch, and I'm not sure how much more I can emphasize this, A CONFIRMED BAD GUY.

• 7-3-0 or 8-2-0
• 6-3-0 or 7-2-0

And then we proceed on.  If you decide to lynch me at that point, OK, fine, maybe I deserve it.

But how about this?  Say Aman is actually still lying?  (you know, because bad guys lie) and Aman is actually a standard elim.  Now doesn't lynching him give us a heck of a lot more information and chance to win than lynching me does?

Hopefully I actually get a chance to come back this cycle (I should, just not a lot), but there really is no logical situation where it makes sense to lynch me over Aman today.

As for why I chose Aman over Sart, it was mostly gut feeling.  Sart was reading more neutral to me versus Aman starting to ring some elim bells for me.  Mostly regarding tone.  But also, the way Aman was targeting me seemed a bit off.  And with that, I'm about out of time.

[Amanuensis]

14 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

You, Fifth, and Stick all started the cycle voting on Aman.  Based on Aman saying, "Hey, I'm the bad guy, but Rath is too, but a different kind and because he's not me, he's worse" you switched your vote to me.  That seems super sketchy to me.  If I flipped elim, villagers should see that as distancing.  Since I will flip village if lynched, villages should see that as mislynch opportunism.

Say there are 3 elims remaining (I'd say that's the most likely situation).  Assuming Striker didn't pull a 'hey, I'm going to announce a faction and then not have it exist' trick, then we're sitting at 7-3-1.  Here are the likely next few cycles:

• I'm lynched - 6-3-1
• Elim kill - 5-3-1
• Kandra lynch - 5-3-0
• Elim kill - 4-3-0

Now we're one mislynch away from losing.

OK, if there are 2 elims, we're in a bit better shape:

• I'm lynched - 7-2-1
• Elim kill - 6-2-1
• Kandra lynch - 6-2-0
• Elim kill - 5-2-0

That gives us one cycle of leeway at least.

Now, say we lynch, and I'm not sure how much more I can emphasize this, A CONFIRMED BAD GUY.

• 7-3-0 or 8-2-0
• 6-3-0 or 7-2-0

And then we proceed on.  If you decide to lynch me at that point, OK, fine, maybe I deserve it.

But how about this?  Say Aman is actually still lying?  (you know, because bad guys lie) and Aman is actually a standard elim.  Now doesn't lynching him give us a heck of a lot more information and chance to win than lynching me does?

Hopefully I actually get a chance to come back this cycle (I should, just not a lot), but there really is no logical situation where it makes sense to lynch me over Aman today.

As for why I chose Aman over Sart, it was mostly gut feeling.  Sart was reading more neutral to me versus Aman starting to ring some elim bells for me.  Mostly regarding tone.  But also, the way Aman was targeting me seemed a bit off.  And with that, I'm about out of time.

I think the main thing about removing an eliminator over me is that I can get one more use out of alignment scanning ability. Is it necessary to win the game? Not even remotely. But it is a nice advantage.

EDIT:

Also, I resent being called a bad guy. I'm just doing Harmony's work. Would you call Sazed a bad guy?

Edited June 19, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

Rath, while you raise an interesting point, I feel the unlikelihood of there being two village Soothers, the fact that if you are left alive longer as an Eliminator, you may have the votes to hammer next cycle, and the suspicion I’ve had for you which isn’t tied up in Aman’s supposed scan are factors which contribute to my decision to delay an Aman lynch. Could it be a stalling tactic? Of course. But the alternative is letting the Eliminators possibly get the upper hand through voting, with your Soothing, and village deaths from inactivity tonight.  

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I’m willing to trust Aman. I hope I’m not making a huge mistake by following the more experienced crowd, but I’ll vote on Rathmaskal. 

[Amanuensis]

• (2) Amandra: _Stick_, Rebelmaskal, 
• (6) Rebelmaskal: Amandra, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, Araris Valerian, Straw, Ventyl,

@_Stick_ Rath has replied. Do you still want to vote for me?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

For whichever of you are not on the elim team.  How is lynching me the better option here?  You have someone who is either confirmed SK (regardless of how he decides to spin it) or someone who has mostly been put under suspicion by the other person up for lynch.  Even if you don't 100% agree with my logic, you have to realize that when I flip village, you're going to be targeted yourself by the rest of the village for flipping to voting on my so quickly.

We're not lynching you just because Aman claims to have proof that you're evil. More than just the double Soother thing, it's the fact that your lack of vote manipulation makes me think you don't care about the lynch outcome so much as saving your action for the night kill. The D2 lynch was well within Rioter range, and the D3 lynch would have been had you Soothed a vote from Sart.

6 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

But how about this?  Say Aman is actually still lying?  (you know, because bad guys lie) and Aman is actually a standard elim.  Now doesn't lynching him give us a heck of a lot more information and chance to win than lynching me does?

Hopefully I actually get a chance to come back this cycle (I should, just not a lot), but there really is no logical situation where it makes sense to lynch me over Aman today.

As for why I chose Aman over Sart, it was mostly gut feeling.  Sart was reading more neutral to me versus Aman starting to ring some elim bells for me.  Mostly regarding tone.  But also, the way Aman was targeting me seemed a bit off.  And with that, I'm about out of time.

We can't have confirmed SK and potential elim. Lynching you gives essentially the same information as lynching Aman, as either way we'll be able to tell if his scans are real or not. In the short term, lynching SK!Aman will likely be similar to lynching a villager as there's a decent chance he would Kandrify a villager. In the long term, we still have to deal with the Kandra, but we'll lose to the elims much faster than we would lose to a Kandra. That means an elim!Aman getting village!Rath lynched is only moderately worse than lynching SK!Aman, as we'd still lynch Aman tomorrow either way. The main drawback is that we'd be back to no information on the Kandra's identity or abilities.

6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

But the alternative is letting the Eliminators possibly get the upper hand through voting, with your Soothing, and village deaths from inactivity tonight.  

I don't think we'd lose tomorrow by lynching SK!Aman, but it wouldn't be great. At worst, which is lynch SK!Aman, he hops into a villager, the elim kill and the Coinshot kill both take out a villager, and village!Straw dies to the filter, giving us 3-3-1 with the new Kandra voting against an elim Soother hammer. In practice, the Coinshot kill would take out Rath in this scenario.

[Rathmaskal]

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We can't have confirmed SK and potential elim. Lynching you gives essentially the same information as lynching Aman...

This is not what I said.  I said Aman is a confirmed bad guy.  Either Aman is telling the truth and is the Kandra.  A bad guy.  Or Aman is lying and is an elim.  A bad guy.  Lynching me gives you virtually no information.

Here are the possibilities:

• Lynch SK.Aman.  OK, lynch me if you want tomorrow, I'll still fight tooth and nail against it, but it's not the worst strategy at that point.
• Lynch Elim.Aman.  Well, then you know that the claim that I'm elim is FAR less likely (could be a good distancing strategy, but that's about it)
• Lynch Elim.Rath.  OK, then you know Aman's scans are at least potentially valid.  Possibly just a good guess.
• Lynch Village.Rath.  Aman is still a bad guy who needs to be lynched.

Which one gives you more information?  The only possible piece of information you may get from lynching me

I'm actually thinking at this point that Elim.Aman is far more likely than I initially gave credit to.  SK.Aman could claim I'm elim as a stalling tactic...but to what gain?  Once I turn as village, SK.Aman would just be lynched or coin shot.  Elim.Aman would definitely take advantage as wagons are circling to get me mislynched because as I outlined in my last post, mislynching me today gets the elims extremely close to winning in the next couple cycles unless our coinshot has a good idea of who the elims are.  (And in this situation, there's no way the actual kandra would claim, because this would be the perfect kind of chaos to wait out)

Now, regarding my lack of soothing D2, I honestly didn't see Fura as that much more likely of an elim than you were Devotary.  My previous reads list lends itself to a scale of 1-7:

1. strong village
2. lean village
3. neutral, lean village
4. neutral
5. neutral, lean elim
6. lean elim
7. strong elim

On that scale, I believe I had you as a 3, Fura as a 5?  Not enough of a read for me to affect the vote in my opinion.

Also,

36 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

lynching SK!Aman will likely be similar to lynching a villager as there's a decent chance he would Kandrify a villager. In the long term, we still have to deal with the Kandra, but we'll lose to the elims much faster than we would lose to a Kandra

so you're implying that you think that if Aman is the kandra, he's both immune to the night kills AND the role gets passed to someone else?  Yeah, that makes zero sense.  That would make it impossible for the kandra to lose.

Finally, Devotary, Fura, and I shared what we thought was most- to least- likely for duplicate roles.  As you pointed out, I had soother fairly low down my list.  If I were an elim soother, why would I not try to get you thinking it was more likely to be a duplicate role?  Just implying that may have been sufficient to pull some suspicion away once it was clear there was another soother in the game.  (I honestly forget whether someone else has claimed or not...that's what working all day does to you :/)

Anyway, I need to get some sleep and will be at work without necessarily having access to hop on here again tomorrow, so this may be my last post of the cycle...hopefully not the game.  Sorry for the rather blunt tone of parts of this post.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

21 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

This is not what I said.  I said Aman is a confirmed bad guy.  Either Aman is telling the truth and is the Kandra.  A bad guy.  Or Aman is lying and is an elim.  A bad guy.  Lynching me gives you virtually no information.

Here are the possibilities:

• Lynch SK.Aman.  OK, lynch me if you want tomorrow, I'll still fight tooth and nail against it, but it's not the worst strategy at that point.
• Lynch Elim.Aman.  Well, then you know that the claim that I'm elim is FAR less likely (could be a good distancing strategy, but that's about it)
• Lynch Elim.Rath.  OK, then you know Aman's scans are at least potentially valid.  Possibly just a good guess.
• Lynch Village.Rath.  Aman is still a bad guy who needs to be lynched.

Which one gives you more information?  The only possible piece of information you may get from lynching me

I'm actually thinking at this point that Elim.Aman is far more likely than I initially gave credit to.  SK.Aman could claim I'm elim as a stalling tactic...but to what gain?  Once I turn as village, SK.Aman would just be lynched or coin shot.  Elim.Aman would definitely take advantage as wagons are circling to get me mislynched because as I outlined in my last post, mislynching me today gets the elims extremely close to winning in the next couple cycles unless our coinshot has a good idea of who the elims are.  (And in this situation, there's no way the actual kandra would claim, because this would be the perfect kind of chaos to wait out)

Now, regarding my lack of soothing D2, I honestly didn't see Fura as that much more likely of an elim than you were Devotary.  My previous reads list lends itself to a scale of 1-7:

1. strong village
2. lean village
3. neutral, lean village
4. neutral
5. neutral, lean elim
6. lean elim
7. strong elim

On that scale, I believe I had you as a 3, Fura as a 5?  Not enough of a read for me to affect the vote in my opinion.

Also,

so you're implying that you think that if Aman is the kandra, he's both immune to the night kills AND the role gets passed to someone else?  Yeah, that makes zero sense.  That would make it impossible for the kandra to lose.

Finally, Devotary, Fura, and I shared what we thought was most- to least- likely for duplicate roles.  As you pointed out, I had soother fairly low down my list.  If I were an elim soother, why would I not try to get you thinking it was more likely to be a duplicate role?  Just implying that may have been sufficient to pull some suspicion away once it was clear there was another soother in the game.  (I honestly forget whether someone else has claimed or not...that's what working all day does to you :/)

Anyway, I need to get some sleep and will be at work without necessarily having access to hop on here again tomorrow, so this may be my last post of the cycle...hopefully not the game.  Sorry for the rather blunt tone of parts of this post.

You mentioned the possibility that Aman was a standard elim, which is incompatible with him being a confirmed SK.

I do admit that many of the reasons for lynching you before Aman are based on potentially inaccurate beliefs about Aman's playstyle, namely that SK!Aman would prefer the village to win than the elims, and that elim!Aman wouldn't bus a teammate just to save himself, especially since Aman will actually for sure be lynched tomorrow. With those assumptions, SK!Aman would mean his scans are accurate and elim!Aman means that you are village.

SK!Aman gains one extra cycle of life from lynching you. While his odds of winning still wouldn't be great with the Kandra description he gave, they're worse if he dies today.

I'm inclined to feel that if you're going to vote for someone in a close lynch, you've committed to making sure that your target dies. You felt the need to cast a vote that saved me from a 50% chance of death, but that didn't translate into making sure no one vote manipulator could change the lynch outcome.

Aman has claimed immunity to night kills, and that if he dies, he can select someone to be a Kandra. That player will keep their old role, gain the win condition of killing everyone else, but does not gain kill-immunity and will permanently die if they are lynched or killed. I would not put it past him to be lying about this, e.g. his night 1 survival was an extra life rather than passive immunity and thus he can be killed at night, but the above is what he claimed.

If you still believed that it was unlikely for their to be two village Soothers, why didn't you tell me that you thought the second Soother was probably evil when I asked?

[Stick.]

18 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

There have been votes soothed, but I have not done so.

The only instance of a soothe was Fura's vote on D2 right?

17 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

• I'm lynched - 6-3-1
• Elim kill - 5-3-1
• Kandra lynch - 5-3-0
• Elim kill - 4-3-0

In all fairness we don't know that you're village. And I don't entirely trust the stuff that Aman has said and I don't think anybody should ever entirely believe people's words in SE unless there's solid proof yknow. Which I suppose we'll get from your lynch...I mean we can get that from an Aman lynch today too, except the alignment scan is what's apparently very attractive to a lot of people. He's getting lynched tomorrow of regardless whether he's telling the truth bc if he's not then that's super shady and he's probably an elim (plausible) or maybe some secret jester role or smt idk (not plausible). If he flips elim then we can probably analyse whatever alignment scan result he presents and get info out of that too.

10 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Which one gives you more information?  The only possible piece of information you may get from lynching me

Wait did you mean to add more to that sentence?

16 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@_Stick_ Rath has replied. Do you still want to vote for me?

Does it make a difference? It's 2-6, and even with Rath's vote manip it's not going to come close to a tie. My vote dont matter no more

Oh and @StrikerEZ Are any players in danger of dying to the inactivity filter tonight?

[Amanuensis]

I just want to say I really appreciate how hard Rath is trying not to get lynched, despite his busyness. I know exactly how it feels being an eliminator trying to delay the inevitable. MR10 comes to mind, in which I was an eliminator with an extra kill and I promised to only target inactives if the village left me alone for a while. Were I actually a villager and not the kandra, I'd probably be considering removing me from the equation first in the off-chance I was lying... but I agree it's not very efficient, and I am thankful for those who are putting their trust in me. That said, I really am sorry this all came up in a time where you are busy, Rath. I hope there's no hard feelings.

[StrikerEZ]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Oh and @StrikerEZ Are any players in danger of dying to the inactivity filter tonight?

The only player in danger of dying to the inactivity filter is @Straw, unless they get their second post in the next 12 hours.