Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Amanuensis]

Just now, Lumgol said:

@Amanuensis, so your reads are completely NAI or Village (just by skimming through this), and yet you still voted on Devotary. That's interesting.

Even if I got this far in my analysis last night, I probably still would have voted Devotary. As I stated earlier, Fura's claim felt genuine to me, and without another Hazekiller coming forward, I determined it to be a villager play. At the time she did it / self-voted there was still ample opportunity to push the lynch Devotary's way. In situations where I don't have any firm belief of two player's alignment, I pay a lot more attention to how potential lynchees react to danger and how the votes fall when more people get involved. Despite my analysis so far, I don't really think Devotary looks particularly good. 

[Araris Valerian]

@StrikerEZ I'm pretty sure I voted during 2 separate posts during the day turn, in addition to 2 social type posts, and 1 tonight not counting this one.

[Snipexe]

Alright, so something is kind of bothering me, and once I looked further, my suspicions were perked. So here's a bit of a theory regarding originally one post, and then as I was looking more, a second as well, that just kind of read as off to me. Now I know this sounds crazy, but I think I may be on to something. 

What follows is the two posts that bothered me, and the reasons why. To me, they present the potential for Fifth to be an elim hiding really, really well.

1. His first post in Day 2. 

Quote

High. AG3 is the easiest example and I can pull others. Not to mention that this is the exact kind of move Elim!Aman would make. I again just got back from an eight hour hiatus so give me time to look at PMs and yesterday’s thread. 

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85558-long-game-56-discord-in-elendel/?do=findComment&comment=881694

Normally this would read as a village post, obviously. However, if one makes the assumption that Fifth is an elim, it reads a bit differently. By having an elim be the first to say that this is a WGG, the elims would essentially control the idea of it being such, by planting it into people's heads in a way that they chose. I personally have never been in a game with a WGG (at least not that I am aware of), and so my default reaction was that it was either a thug or a lurcher. Fura's post only served to solidify that. But then there's the above post. Fifth plants the idea that this is both a WGG and that it is something that Aman would do as an elim, though he doesn't actually use specific evidence of how this would be something Elim!Aman would do. 

2. His first post N2

19 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Gah. 

Now to re-evaluate...basically everything. I just had my entire view of this game turned completely on its head. Fura, I will apologise for your death. If it helps, I was completely honest in my suspicion of you. The only positive in this situation is that we did just get a very valuable flip for analysing people. I do understand that the majority of suspicion for this mislynch will (rightly) fall on my head, but I will be looking into this more closely, particularly at voters on both sides who were unwilling to condemn Fura or Devotary in definitive terms. If Devotary is an Elim, I suspect any Elim voters on Fura to have not voiced full-throated suspicion of her, especially with this outcome in mind. 

This reads as village in the first viewing, however as examined it a little more in-depth, it seemed more sinister then how it first appeared. The thing that stands out as the most suspicious to me is the way he blatantly takes responsibility for Fura's lynch. This makes perfect sense for an elim to do, as it's a very effective way of drawing suspicions off of them. Especially when one considers the addition at the end. He draws suspicions away from himself, and onto those who might not have been fully committed in their vote. By adding this on the end, he finishes the post by taking the readers mind off of him. The beginning of the post is an apology, but by the end, he has readers no longer thinking about his role in the lynch, instead focusing their attention on the non-committal posts by other players last cycle.

So, thoughts? Am I seeing things that don't exist, or am I on to something?

[Mailliw73]

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@StrikerEZ I'm pretty sure I voted during 2 separate posts during the day turn, in addition to 2 social type posts, and 1 tonight not counting this one.

He meant that you hadn't yet made 2 posts this cycle. 

@Young Bard Is the only player in danger of dying from the filter today.

[DrakeMarshall]

20 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

the majority of suspicion for this mislynch will (rightly) fall on my head

Not really. I'm prepared to defend you with the same force I defended Furamirionind.

 

20 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Alright, at least this makes Ventyl and Drake look very good...

Not really. It will only make us look good if and when Devotary flips evil.

 

19 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

we see the downsides of forming two parallel lynch trains early in the cycle

lynches on Stick, Sart, or Drake may or may not have had merit

1. Yes and no. I agree that the human tendency to gravitate towards only 2 options for decision-making is pretty unhelpful. But it also inspires people to take sides, which in this particular context is actually useful.

2. If you had given me this last cycle when I initially asked for it, I would have seriously considered backing off on my suspicion of you.

 

19 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

arguments against Devotary were more grounded in her playstyle

Not really. Aside from not wanting to lynch Fura, I suspected Devotary for specific things she did, such as distancing from the D1 lynch, and specific things she did not do, such as giving evidence for going out of her way to solve the game. That can only be called playstyle insofar as anything somebody does in-game could be chalked up to playstyle. Playstyle can be a mitigating factor (for example I didn't know Fura's playstyle as well in the last game we played together and I tried to lynch her, but now I would like to think I have a better sense of what is normal for her and what isn't), but never a reason to suspect somebody.

 

17 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It's very easy to defend the innocent when both candidates are blameless

Not really. I can't remember an SE game where defending somebody like this has made anyone more trusted, and that goes doubly for a lynch between two innocents. I don't think my defending Bard in a similar fashion in the last game scored me any points. I am expecting to net suspicion from defending Furamirionind, I just don't care. You can lynch me if and when Devotary flips village, because I don't think she will.

 

13 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Oof. So sorry Fura...I’ll admit I was like 90% sure you were an elim.

This sounds a tad disingenuous to me. I don't remember you expressing that degree of certainty last cycle.

 

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I hadn’t considered the possibility of a thug!drake

Good catch. Me neither. I guess I'm less cleared than I thought.

I wonder why this occurred to you, though. It's a little off the beaten path. Were you looking for a reason to lynch me?

Regardless, a thug!drake probably wouldn't want to burn his extra life for no reason, and you might be overestimating my intelligence if you think I could stage a tie to become trusted on the first day. Especially considering how one of the big topics D1 was literally how we would re-lynch thugs, and I even agreed myself that village thugs should let themselves die, meaning that if I was lynched but survived I would still be a guaranteed eliminator to anyone who had their eyes open.

 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Wildbow posted a new chapter of Ward like 20 minutes ago

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

 

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Even if I got this far in my analysis last night, I probably still would have voted Devotary. As I stated earlier, Fura's claim felt genuine to me, and without another Hazekiller coming forward, I determined it to be a villager play. At the time she did it / self-voted there was still ample opportunity to push the lynch Devotary's way. In situations where I don't have any firm belief of two player's alignment, I pay a lot more attention to how potential lynchees react to danger and how the votes fall when more people get involved. Despite my analysis so far, I don't really think Devotary looks particularly good. 

This is where we've gotten into trouble the past two days. The lynch should not be a binary option that gets locked in early in the cycle. We should be able to avoid situations where clearing one person up for the lynch automatically means voting for the other, and clearing both people means being unable to prevent a village read from dying. We cannot afford to have people vote and vanish. By the time Fura claimed five hours before rollover, the votes were 6-3 including Fura's self-vote. This is the point when believing Fura innocent leads to joining/creating a lynch you support more. Maybe that's me, at which point you would state why you think that I, specifically, am evil. If you think someone else is more likely to be evil, say your maintained your suspicion of V/E Stick and Fura after deciding to trust the latter, or you thought Straw's vote was suspicious, or anything else, this is the opportunity to start a new lynch and see who does or does not jump on it. In particular, I don't think elims would jump onto a new lynch on a villager except to protect an elim from being killed.

I realise it's very unfair to put this on you personally when there were many people who saw Fura's role claim and decided that whatever village points that claim and lack of counter-claim earned was insufficient to budge their votes, especially because you were pressed for time near the end of the cycle. It's also hypocritical, as I was one of those people who didn't shift in the direction of an entirely separate lynch, and because my general voting pattern is to withhold my vote until near the end of the cycle and then reinforce a viable lynch I agree with. This is more of an idealised voting strategy that I keep falling short of.

29 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

1. Yes and no. I agree that the human tendency to gravitate towards only 2 options for decision-making is pretty unhelpful. But it also inspires people to take sides, which in this particular context is actually useful.

2. If you had given me this last cycle when I initially asked for it, I would have seriously considered backing off on my suspicion of you.

Not really. Aside from not wanting to lynch Fura, I suspected Devotary for specific things she did, such as distancing from the D1 lynch, and specific things she did not do, such as giving evidence for going out of her way to solve the game. That can only be called playstyle insofar as anything somebody does in-game could be chalked up to playstyle. Playstyle can be a mitigating factor (for example I didn't know Fura's playstyle as well in the last game we played together and I tried to lynch her, but now I would like to think I have a better sense of what is normal for her and what isn't), but never a reason to suspect somebody.

Taking sides is useful, especially if the sides are of different alignments. In this case, I would fully expect to find elims on both sides of the lynch, particularly among those whose main stated justification for voting was a belief that the other candidate wasn't evil. If everyone could be counted on to be active enough to vote in the last part of the cycle, it's more useful to form a wider array of lynch possibilities that can then be consolidated at the end. This opens up multiple new sides of the lynch, and forces people to vote based on specific suspicions. It also doesn't work properly if people vote partway through the cycle and then don't come back as new evidence surfaces.

Behavior becomes a playstyle when it is consistent across multiple games regardless of alignment. I am unwilling to commit to suspicions formed by looking at things people say in a vacuum. I can't do what Aman did with Fura and I where he looks at each post individually and pieces the fragments together. If someone never communicates with other players I don't have anything. I need actual evidence like interactions with dead players or obviously opposed/synchronised views between living players or role analysis, otherwise I'll end up not voting or just bandwagoning on someone late in the cycle.

[Sart]

"My guess for the Traitors: Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity), Fade (Araris Valerian), Mertis (Straw), and Nedar (Young Bard)"

[xinoehp512]

Huh.

[DrakeMarshall]

I guess one long post responding to everyone doesn't really count as two.

Well, this does.

 

While I'm posting:

1 hour ago, Sart said:

"My guess for the Traitors: Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity), Fade (Araris Valerian), Mertis (Straw), and Nedar (Young Bard)"

I might as well ask what it is about Straw you find suspicious, because right now I haven't been able to get a read on Straw.

[Fifth Scholar]

2 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Alright, so something is kind of bothering me, and once I looked further, my suspicions were perked. So here's a bit of a theory regarding originally one post, and then as I was looking more, a second as well, that just kind of read as off to me. Now I know this sounds crazy, but I think I may be on to something. 

What follows is the two posts that bothered me, and the reasons why. To me, they present the potential for Fifth to be an elim hiding really, really well.

1. His first post in Day 2. 

https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85558-long-game-56-discord-in-elendel/?do=findComment&comment=881694

Normally this would read as a village post, obviously. However, if one makes the assumption that Fifth is an elim, it reads a bit differently. By having an elim be the first to say that this is a WGG, the elims would essentially control the idea of it being such, by planting it into people's heads in a way that they chose. I personally have never been in a game with a WGG (at least not that I am aware of), and so my default reaction was that it was either a thug or a lurcher. Fura's post only served to solidify that. But then there's the above post. Fifth plants the idea that this is both a WGG and that it is something that Aman would do as an elim, though he doesn't actually use specific evidence of how this would be something Elim!Aman would do. 

2. His first post N2

This reads as village in the first viewing, however as examined it a little more in-depth, it seemed more sinister then how it first appeared. The thing that stands out as the most suspicious to me is the way he blatantly takes responsibility for Fura's lynch. This makes perfect sense for an elim to do, as it's a very effective way of drawing suspicions off of them. Especially when one considers the addition at the end. He draws suspicions away from himself, and onto those who might not have been fully committed in their vote. By adding this on the end, he finishes the post by taking the readers mind off of him. The beginning of the post is an apology, but by the end, he has readers no longer thinking about his role in the lynch, instead focusing their attention on the non-committal posts by other players last cycle.

So, thoughts? Am I seeing things that don't exist, or am I on to something?

1. I had a reason for bringing up a WGG immediately because Fura had brought it up and dismissed it in such a fashion that I felt compelled to reply and correct her assumption. If that set the probability of a WGG higher than it actually was (and I don’t think it did), so be it. I still think it’s an option which hasn’t gotten nearly the attention and traction it deserves. And I didn’t give specific evidence, because as I stated in that post, I’d just gotten back onto the Shard and wanted to post a quick reply before checking up on PMs and the like. As for why Aman would do it, that’s just general awareness of his playstyle, which he reaffirmed. 

2. Would I want focus to remain on me, regardless of alignment?  It was more an address of the (legitimate) concerns people may have had following the lynch result, and then a statement on where my analysis was leading me. Obviously the second isn’t going to focus on me, as exclusively defensive posts typically don’t help the village as much as a brief (or thorough) address of suspicions and then showing where your own logic is taking you. The first isn’t much help without the second, and I included both. 

I find it interesting that you bring up, about both of my posts, that they’re village on first reflection but also make sense coming from an Eliminator. Wouldn’t that make them NAI, and not immediately suspicious? Nevertheless, I’m glad you’ve rejoined with the thread. Given that you failed to vote yesterday, where are your suspicions lying? @xinoehp512, same goes for you; you’ve been dodging the need to give your opinion for several turns now. 

If I’m NKed, I have a lot of suspicions and don’t know which should be acted upon. I’d encourage greater perusal of Drake, Aman and Lum than is perhaps occurring now, and would not immediately lynch Devotary tomorrow simply for her status as the opposing wagon to Fura. 

[Aonar]

*Sigh*

First, the truck breaks down on the way home from work last night, so I wasn't able to get on before rollover, now my internet is being sketchy and the Shard is losing my posts. Joy. >> On that note; quick apology for yesterday, I did plan to get back and caught up and vote, but then the rear differential on the truck blew up (it was quite literally on fire :P) and I didn't end up getting home until almost 11. >> (And I managed to fall asleep on the couch mid-composition of this post, but whatever. )

Anyways, even if I had been around, I genuinely don't know how I would have voted.  That end of turn was a bit of a mess; I might have just abstained or thrown a vote on some third party.  

Fifth is a growing suspicion; since D1 they've been on the radar with the weird misreading of Aman's posts, and they haven't really started looking better since. At bare minimum though they're actively contributing to discussion, which makes me hesitant to call for action on that front.

On that note, Xino's posts are becoming rather frustrating; I've had problems in the past with the concept of inactivity filters (by and by large they tend to be easily met in letter and broken in spirit (and vice versa)) and having essentially an inactive player that won't be caught by the filter is annoying. Now, I'm honestly not sure if I've even played another game with Xino, so this might be standard behaviour for them, but it seems offhand to be behaviour much more conducive to an elim or kandra than a villager. 

I find the asymmetric interactions between Fifth, Aman and Drake interesting. (Fifth is sus Aman, Drake, Drake defends Fifth (or at least states willingness to do so), Aman seems to state trust for both Drake and Fifth?) Often interactions like this mean there's at least one Elim in the mix (usually the one in Drake or Aman's position). Not certain by any means, and the one I'm most suspicious of for other reasons is the one least likely to be evil given the way these patterns usually go. /shurg So like I said, interesting. Might mean something, might mean nothing.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Aonar

[Snipexe]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I find it interesting that you bring up, about both of my posts, that they’re village on first reflection but also make sense coming from an Eliminator. Wouldn’t that make them NAI, and not immediately suspicious?

I might not have come across properly in what I said. They seem almost too village, and so while I could conceivably see them coming from a villager, I can’t help but feel that they are too perfect, and are instead an elim hiding.

edit: I hit post before I finished.

Something just feels off about those posts, though maybe I’m just going too deep

Edited June 16, 2019 by Snipexe

[Lumgol]

19 minutes ago, Aonar said:

On that note, Xino's posts are becoming rather frustrating; I've had problems in the past with the concept of inactivity filters (by and by large they tend to be easily met in letter and broken in spirit (and vice versa)) and having essentially an inactive player that won't be caught by the filter is annoying. Now, I'm honestly not sure if I've even played another game with Xino, so this might be standard behaviour for them, but it seems offhand to be behaviour much more conducive to an elim or kandra than a villager. 

It's not uncommon for Xino to play like that. He doesn't do it in every game, but in some games. I'm not sure whether it has any connection to his alignment.

[StrikerEZ]

That's it, turn is over! I'm working really hard to get the write up finished, and then I'll send out PMs and post the next Turn!

[StrikerEZ]

Day 3 - Disaster Strikes

The night started off peaceful enough. Maybe too peaceful, as if it was the calm before the storm.
Draff felt the tension in the air intensify as everyone left the lobby to go to sleep. Quick glances between officers, whispered words into ears. It all seemed too much for him.
He ended up laying in his bed, staring at the ceiling when the first scream came. He got up as quickly as he could, sprinting down the hall towards where he heard the scream coming from.
Draff rounded the corner of a hallway to see someone disappearing around the other side of the hallway, with Thomas limping towards Draff. Thank Harmony, Draff thought, he managed to-
There was a loud crash from somewhere else in the station. Quickly, he ran to the sound, but he knew he would be too late, it was just too far away.
He found Nedar Latfin dead in his bed. This time, he didn’t even get a chance to think before he heard another scream. Draff couldn’t take it anymore, so he just slumped to the ground and put his head between his knees and began to weep.
Sometime later, another officer came and found him and told him the news. Someone had heard a struggle coming from Xino’s room, and went to go check on him. He was dead in his bed. But they’d found hidden notes throughout the room about some of the bombings throughout the city. He was a Rebel.
Draff felt disgusted at how happy he felt. No one’s death should be celebrated...but Xino had caused the death of so many innocent civilians, so maybe it was for the best.

~

MrakeDarshall was attacked, but survived!
Young Bard was removed by the inactivity filter! They were a Police Officer!
xinoehp512 was killed! They were a Rebel Officer!

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Amanuensis, aka "Detective Wilco Renaud"
2. Ark1002, aka "Arr K. Thousantoo" Police Mistborn
3. Lumgol, aka "TBD"
4. Fifth Scholar, aka “Serdig Darillid”
5. Araris Valerian, aka “Fade”
6. Ventyl, aka “Lafay Etteax”
7. Furamirionind, aka "Furamirionind" Police Hazekiller
8. Rathmaskal
9. Devotary of Spontaneity, aka "Sindale"
10. Sart
11. _Stick_, aka "Stick"
12. Young Bard, aka " Nedar Latfin" Police Officer
13. Aonar, aka "Ainm Lathair"
14. Snipexe
15. Straw, aka "Mertis tyl Loesp"
16. Drake Marshall, aka “Thomas Blackburn”
17. xinoehp512 Rebel Officer

PMs are open, but remember that each player may only make one new PM each turn. Remember to include me and Mailliw in all PMs, and group PMs ARE allowed.

There is a two-vote minimum for a lynch and a tied lynch results in one of the tied lynchees’ death.

This turn will last 45 hours and will end at 7:30 PM on June 17th.

Edited June 16, 2019 by StrikerEZ

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Well, this is a surprise. I don’t think anyone expected xino to be an Elim. At least this leaves us with the possibility that there are only two or three elims left.

Also sucks that Young Bard never met the post requirement.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Ventyl

[DrakeMarshall]

Interesting.

I'm not shocked to be the target of an attack. I generally hope for the elims trying to get me lynched instead of attacking me, but the D1 state of affairs may have prevented that.

Other news, the lurcher seems to be doing very well, and I am considering the possibility of multiple lurchers in this game.

 

Given that a villager mistborn has already flipped, I am inclined to assume that xinoehp was the kandra's kill.

Before I cast a vote, I will be reading all of xinoehp's interactions. But as of right now my suspicions pretty much are the same from yesterday.

[Amanuensis]

2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

MrakeDarshall was attacked, but survived!
Young Bard was removed by the inactivity filter! They were a Police Officer!
xinoehp512 was killed! They were a Rebel Officer!

Just three lines and there's so much info to unpack  another failed elim kill and a vigilante shot landing on a Rebel! As for Bard, I'm really sad you ended up dying from the filter I was really looking forward to playing with you again, and despite the vigilante (or kandra, I suppose) eliminating one elim, it really sucks to lose a villager.

3 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Interesting.

I'm not shocked to be the target of an attack. I generally hope for the elims trying to get me lynched instead of attacking me, but the D1 state of affairs may have prevented that.

Other news, the lurcher seems to be doing very well, and I am considering the possibility of multiple lurchers in this game.

 

Given that a villager mistborn has already flipped, I am inclined to assume that xinoehp was the kandra's kill.

Before I cast a vote, I will be reading all of xinoehp's interactions. But as of right now my suspicions pretty much are the same from yesterday.

Out of curiosity, what makes you think there could be multiple Lurchers? My initial assumption was the same Lurcher who saved me managed to save you, which if true, is really quite the feat! I can't help but wonder if any village protective role has managed to stop two kills in a row before (not to mention in the first two nights!).

I thought about that a little, and now wonder if the kandra only can kill on even-numbered nights. It would explain why they didn't kill anyone N1, though I think a village!Coinshot who didn't want to draw blood in the very beginning could be responsible for killing Xino.

Speaking of Xino, he didn't say much of... well, anything. All of his posts weren't really game related, which makes me lean towards the village!Coinshot theory. Something tells me the kandra wouldn't bother cleaning up inactives.

[DrakeMarshall]

Just now, Amanuensis said:

Out of curiosity, what makes you think there could be multiple Lurchers?

With a protective role, the only evidence for it you can see is people surviving attacks.

Statistically, the more attacks are survived, the higher the probability that there is more than one protector.

We have a sample size of three attacks, and 2/3 of them were blocked.

A priori, my prediction would be a single lurcher, because of role distribution. This information from this cycle somewhat increases the probability of two lurchers.

It's hard to say definitively which is less unlikely, there being a single lurcher who guessed right twice or there being multiple lurchers.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Drake survives and claims not-Thug. Stick brought up a Thug!Drake last night, and Drake's response also seemed to indicate that he wasn't a Thug. I don't think an elim!Stick would have attacked village!Drake if the elims actually thought he was a Thug. The attack also seems to indicate that the elims preferred to take Drake out now instead of trying to lynch him after I die, which is an interesting choice to make.

Xino's death has to be a Coinshot, or the Kandra does have a kill and decided to be helpful. While the death makes the Coinshot more likely, I still think that having a Coinshot would be at the expense of the Kandra having a kill, which would make their win condition overly difficult. The main things I notice about Xino's interactions are that Aonar indicated suspicion of him for posting enough to avoid the filter without offering opinions, and Lum then saying such behaviour is not uncommon for Xino. Other interactions were Aman, Araris, Ventyl, and Fifth prodding him to contribute more/cast a vote, and I may well have missed others. I would say this leads to a significant village lean for Aonar. While it is true that Xino has a similar style in village games, there has to be a slide towards the elim end for Lum.

Two roleless players down, which definitively proves that this game is not role madness and decreases the likelihood of doubled roles, including Lurcher. The existence of a roleless elim makes a four person elim team more likely, and also makes the D1 discussion about whether everyone has a role potentially pertinent. Let's see. Rath assumes role madness, and then me, Drake, Aman, and Aonar(in that order) question that assumption. Drake actually votes for Rath temporarily before removing the vote. If it's elim!Rath saying this, it would have to be a long term investment that would only pay off if Xino, or another roleless elim if one exists, dies before Rath does. 

[Stick.]

Quotes from last turn:

Quote

Drake: This sounds a tad disingenuous to me. I don't remember you expressing that degree of certainty last cycle.

I didn't in thread, 'twas all in the PMs. Fura made some interesting claims, and after my vote was cast on them.  Probably shouldn't expand on this more in-thread.

Quote

Drake: Good catch. Me neither. I guess I'm less cleared than I thought.

I wonder why this occurred to you, though. It's a little off the beaten path. Were you looking for a reason to lynch me?

Regardless, a thug!drake probably wouldn't want to burn his extra life for no reason, and you might be overestimating my intelligence if you think I could stage a tie to become trusted on the first day. Especially considering how one of the big topics D1 was literally how we would re-lynch thugs, and I even agreed myself that village thugs should let themselves die, meaning that if I was lynched but survived I would still be a guaranteed eliminator to anyone who had their eyes open.

Well, yeah, it's kinda my job to look for suspicious things  But in all honesty people may or may not have been gossiping about you discussing your alignment in PMs and that's what prompted me to not soft-clear you right away and consider other possibilities. 

I don't think thugs lose their extra life if they end up not getting lynched/killed. 

But...moving on to this turn, you did just get targeted by what has to be the elim kill. So maybe you're soft-cleared after all...? Are people again going to bring up the possibility of a WGG?

8 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The attack also seems to indicate that the elims preferred to take Drake out now instead of trying to lynch him after I die, which is an interesting choice to make.

Devotary seems to be hinting at it here, but of course, she's assuming her alignment village and we don't know that.

Also good job coinshot or kandra or mistborn or whoever you are that killed Xino. However if I were to guess I'd say it's a coinshot. If the kandra had a kill they would've used it last turn too. Unless the kandra's a mistborn and used their action N1 for something else...But honestly given the kandra's wincon I wouldn't be taking any actions other than kills. Unless I had false-claimed to someone in PMs and wanted to prove it to them.

[Aonar]

Okay... well, it's a bit quiet in here, isn't it?  I've seen Fifth loitering; anything to say? 

My suspicion of Lum has jumped slightly in light of Xino's death, given that she decided to answer my implied question about Xino's behaviour, confirming that it had precedent and implying it was likely NAI. Of course, given that no one disagreed presumably it was fairly normal behaviour for them, but it is interesting. Not about to lynch Lum for possibly just trying to be helpful, but I will be watching.  

[Amanuensis]

23 minutes ago, Aonar said:

Okay... well, it's a bit quiet in here, isn't it?  I've seen Fifth loitering; anything to say? 

My suspicion of Lum has jumped slightly in light of Xino's death, given that she decided to answer my implied question about Xino's behaviour, confirming that it had precedent and implying it was likely NAI. Of course, given that no one disagreed presumably it was fairly normal behaviour for them, but it is interesting. Not about to lynch Lum for possibly just trying to be helpful, but I will be watching.  

I tried checking the time stamps but it's at that period of time where it's too vague (your post says 17 hours ago, hers 16 hours) which means that could be a 2 minute difference or a 52 minute difference. I wanted to say it could have been too close to turn over for anyone else to comment, but I dunno.

My plan for this cycle is to finish my analysis of Devotary and address both the shenanigans with the D2 Lynch and how the attack on Drake could factor in, as well as do a quick look over all the players who interacted with Xino to see if there's a good teammate candidate among them.

ED1T:

• (1) Fifth Scholar: Aonar, 

Edited June 16, 2019 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Are people again going to bring up the possibility of a WGG?

Did you mention me? Hi! 

In short, I see three possibilities for Drake’s survival:

1) Village Lurcher. This is easy; if the Lurcher steps forward, Drake is clear presuming we trust the person making the claim. 

2) Thug. Drake has denied this, so I’m counting it out; if he did lie to us we should probably be suspicious of that anyways. 

3) Eliminator Lurcher. This means Drake was WGGed. At this point, with both Aman and Drake surviving their kills, I’m starting to look at one of these existing with increasing certainty, regardless if it was one or both of the attacks that were WGGs. 

50 minutes ago, Aonar said:

Okay... well, it's a bit quiet in here, isn't it?  I've seen Fifth loitering; anything to say? 

Yeah, sorry; was asleep when the cycle closed, then didn’t have enough time between church and helping my family with yard work to actually make a post. I’ve been in PMs, though, and hope to have at least a few suspicions with my reasoning, if not a vote, by the time I next check in. 

[Amanuensis]

1 minute ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Did you mention me? Hi! 

In short, I see three possibilities for Drake’s survival:

1) Village Lurcher. This is easy; if the Lurcher steps forward, Drake is clear presuming we trust the person making the claim. 

2) Thug. Drake has denied this, so I’m counting it out; if he did lie to us we should probably be suspicious of that anyways. 

3) Eliminator Lurcher. This means Drake was WGGed. At this point, with both Aman and Drake surviving their kills, I’m starting to look at one of these existing with increasing certainty, regardless if it was one or both of the attacks that were WGGs. 

Yeah, sorry; was asleep when the cycle closed, then didn’t have enough time between church and helping my family with yard work to actually make a post. I’ve been in PMs, though, and hope to have at least a few suspicions with my reasoning, if not a vote, by the time I next check in. 

Missing one possibility.

4) Drake is the kandra with an extra life.