Long Game 56: Discord in Elendel

[Snipexe]

Wow this is close! I honestly have no idea who to vote for. Fura seems to have given up on surviving, which tends to read village, and I have no idea what the case on Devotary is.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

47 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

I was interested in Aman’s shift of focus as well, but as you can see Aman is no longer credibly distancing Fura.

I am defending Fura, but I am also less likely than most to be an elim after D1, not to mention putting myself out there to defend people is something I am kind of beginning to make a habit of. Given the spread of villagers and elims, I believe it’s much more logical to insist that somebody is village than it is to do the opposite.

I can’t speak for Ventyl or Sart, aside from that I have no particular cause to suspect them, and that their votes happened early enough into the cycle that I find it less likely to be a reaction to Fura recieving votes.

For what it’s worth, I respect that you are willing to risk it. Me too. I doubt it’ll actually happen, but I’d put myself up for the lynch if I am wrong about Fura. I probably wouldn’t at this stage in the game stake my life on Devotary being evil, unless I was only risking my life and not also staking Devotary’s by lynching them.

I doubt you will change your mind, any more than I will change mine. But, maybe think about it? You said you’re in a tunnel and I bet a fresh perspective wouldn’t go amiss even if you are right.

Fura may have lied about her role in PMs (she did that to me too, incidentally), but if anything that feels more like a villager’s attempt at a gambit than an eliminator tactic. I struggle to see what an eliminator might gain from such a ploy, and it would almost inevitably net them suspicion for a lie that they couldn’t substantiate with accurate scans and would likely face a counterclaim in the future.

EDIT: I think we can agree though that this doesn’t really feel like a V-V lynch? Not that I am at all unhappy with greater levels of activity and participation, but the jump from D1 levels of participation and side-taking to what we have right now is interesting.

You are reading my saying “uncertainty is to be expected in a V-V lynch” to mean “villagers act with uncertainty”. My point there was that everyone would act uncertain. Even eliminators would act uncertain because they know at least as well as the villagers that there aren’t any good options.

That said, the statement “villagers act with uncertainty”, while not my original statement, is also sometimes correct. It isn’t always the case, for example I believe Fifth is likely a villager in part because they are so certain in their suspicions.

More to the point, I am not suspecting you on account of uncertainty.

It would be one thing to give me some soft reads and suspicions, things you aren’t sure enough to act on, but things you’ve noticed.

What you did was avoid giving me any suspicions the first two times, and then told me you suspected the person who was probably going to get lynched today the third time.

I’m sorry, but I find that suspicous. I asked to know your thought process, see how you were trying to solve the game, and you effectively blocked me out. That doesn’t prove that you are an elim, but it does increase the probability considerably.

I’m against lynching Fura mainly because of the points others have made against Devotary, and my gut feeling says Devotary is elim. Also, I’m willing to believe that Fura is telling the truth about their role, becuase they seem very desperate.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

15 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

I can’t speak for Ventyl or Sart, aside from that I have no particular cause to suspect them, and that their votes happened early enough into the cycle that I find it less likely to be a reaction to Fura recieving votes.

You are reading my saying “uncertainty is to be expected in a V-V lynch” to mean “villagers act with uncertainty”. My point there was that everyone would act uncertain. Even eliminators would act uncertain because they know at least as well as the villagers that there aren’t any good options.

That said, the statement “villagers act with uncertainty”, while not my original statement, is also sometimes correct. It isn’t always the case, for example I believe Fifth is likely a villager in part because they are so certain in their suspicions.

More to the point, I am not suspecting you on account of uncertainty.

It would be one thing to give me some soft reads and suspicions, things you aren’t sure enough to act on, but things you’ve noticed.

What you did was avoid giving me any suspicions the first two times, and then told me you suspected the person who was probably going to get lynched today the third time.

I’m sorry, but I find that suspicous. I asked to know your thought process, see how you were trying to solve the game, and you effectively blocked me out. That doesn’t prove that you are an elim, but it does increase the probability considerably.

Given that Ventyl prefaced their vote by indicating a lack of suspicion on Fura and Aman, and since the vote tally was 3-2 against Fura at the time, I'm fairly sure it was a reaction to Fura getting votes. Both Sart and Ventyl have been around and must have seen me quote them, but neither have responded.

Ah, I see, in addition to villagers not knowing who to vote for, elims have more reason to vote a specific way and commit to firmer reads when the lynch outcome matters.

The first time you asked me how voting relates to alignment, and I told you. The second time you asked me for reads, and most of those were village leans. The third time you asked me for suspects, and I gave you one main suspect, one lean elim, and three lean village. I am not trying to block you out, I'm just not very good at player analysis. What more did Fura give you?

I do not want to be lynched for my playstyle, so I shall vote for Fura and continue the grand tradition of Rath, Fura and I voting consecutively.

[Fifth Scholar]

Just now, Ventyl said:

I’m against lynching Fura mainly because of the points others have made against Devotary, and my gut feeling says Devotary is elim. Also, I’m willing to believe that Fura is telling the truth about their role, becuase they seem very desperate.

I’m willing to believe Fura is telling the truth about their role as well, but their role has no bearing on their alignment; indeed, as was pointed out earlier by both Drake and Aman, it almost makes more sense for the Elims to have a Hazekiller than the village. I’m a little curious why they’re seemingly abandoning their earlier stances on this matter. Also, which points against Devotary do you agree with? 

[DrakeMarshall]

1 minute ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m willing to believe Fura is telling the truth about their role as well, but their role has no bearing on their alignment; indeed, as was pointed out earlier by both Drake and Aman, it almost makes more sense for the Elims to have a Hazekiller than the village. I’m a little curious why they’re seemingly abandoning their earlier stances on this matter. Also, which points against Devotary do you agree with? 

I still think the elims have a hazekiller, and I believe that Fura is a hazekiller, I just don't think Fura is the elim hazekiller.

I concede that suspecting Fura for being a hazekiller may be valid, although I personally do not due to the other reasons I gave.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

On 6/12/2019 at 10:20 PM, Sart said:

"Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity)"

"Answer your own question."

 

On 6/13/2019 at 0:59 PM, MrakeDarshall said:

Yeah, I don't really agree with lynching Fura.

Mostly because I have a PM with Fura, and after asking them to explain their thought process on some things and their reads, I don't really feel like this is the thought process of an elim.

There's also the fact that most of the things Fura is doing that they are being suspected for, are things I suspected village!Fura of in the last MR (which we can now talk about, because it finished).

 

So I'm a bit more inclined to suspect Devotary. Reasons:

• Rath and Devotary are the two people I found when looking for "people who tried to avoid input on the lynch". I would be pretty surprised if none of the elims were exhibiting this behavior pattern in a village-village D1 lynch.
  • However, Rath's response to my initially raising that point kind of points to their being village (thanks for pointing that out, Fura). I also have a better gut read on Rath.
• The D1 interaction where Devotary needed to clarify that one post was interesting and kind of odd. I'm not sure I can put my finger on what seemed off in that interaction, because I don't even think the post that Devotary needed to clarify was really all that suspicious, but yeah.
• There's also the fact that so far Devotary has focused mostly on game analysis and not analysis of people, although I concede that this isn't strongly alignment indicative because there isn't as much to analyze with people yet (it's more that the players who are already analyzing other players seem slightly more village to me).

(Ninja’d by Drake)

Here are two post, to explain my vote as many have been asking.

[Furamirionind]

8 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

(Ninja’d by Drake)

Here are two post, to explain my vote as many have been asking.

Would you mind rephrasing your reasons in your own words please?

Edit:

• (7) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, Straw, Rathmaskal, Devotary of Spontaneity
• (5) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, Amanuensis, Furamirionind, 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Sart]

14 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Would you mind rephrasing your reasons in your own words please?

Edit:

• (7) Furamirionind: _Stick_, Fifth Scholar, Lumgol, Araris Valerian, Straw, Rathmaskal, Devotary of Spontaneity
• (5) Devotary of Spontaneity: Sart, MrakeDarshall, Ventyl, Amanuensis, Furamirionind, 

"Got a bad feeling about Sindale (Devotary of Spontaneity), so I voted on him. Simple as that really. Didn't like his stance of staying out of the vote. We all need to vote. Only way to catch the Traitors. As for Furamirionind, it's tough.. A Hazekiller could be a Traitor, but I think there are loyal ones as well. They lied about it though, and I don't agree with that. It's too late to change my vote. I want to keep this close, and see what happens. Plus, I still got that feeling about Sindale. Perhaps I'm focusing on them too much, but there's something off. Not sure what. Ah well, we'll see what happens."

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

All right, at this point in time I see their is no way to save Fura from being lynched, but if my devote faith in Fura being a village!hazekiller is suspicious to y'all, then I assume either me or Drake will be the primary lynch targets next cycle, if either of us even survive the night. So if I die tonight or in the lynch that will suck.

[Araris Valerian]

Eh, dying isn't that bad. You get used to it after it happens a few times.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

34 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Here are two post, to explain my vote as many have been asking.

I did address those two posts, although I'm not entirely sure why Sart asked as it was clear from my actions what the answer was. Drake made a number of other posts at me that I have responded to as well. I see Sart has expanded on his original vote, which is nice. Wanting to keep the lynch close to see what sort of last hour changes and vote manipulation take place isn't an unreasonable strategy in the case where one is uncertain of which option is the better lynch. 

@Sart, why is my lack of a vote different from the other people who chose not to vote last cycle?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Eh, dying isn't that bad. You get used to it after it happens a few times.

Hmm, this seems questionable, I'm now definitely getting very heavy elim vibes from you. 

[Araris Valerian]

I guess you'll never know until you try.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

@xinoehp512 and @Elandera, what are your thoughts on this situation, and is there anyway I could convince you to vote on Devotary, to help save Fura?

[Fifth Scholar]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

@xinoehp512 and @Elandera, what are your thoughts on this situation, and is there anyway I could convince you to vote on Devotary, to help save Fura?

Elandera is spectating.  What is your personal reasoning for trusting Fura? The post you quoted from Drake contains mostly personal evidence about reads he acquired from PMs which he compared to a previous game. That’s unlikely to apply to your decision to trust her. 

[Furamirionind]

20 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

All right, at this point in time I see their is no way to save Fura from being lynched, but if my devote faith in Fura being a village!hazekiller is suspicious to y'all, then I assume either me or Drake will be the primary lynch targets next cycle, if either of us even survive the night. So if I die tonight or in the lynch that will suck.

This is either very suspicious, or Ventyl forgot my alignment will be revealed when I die. : )

Granted, this would be way more suspicious on an elim!Fura flip than a village!Fura flip.

First, I could still be saved by vote manip.

Second... Devote faith? Devout Faith? … I'm no god...

Why would your belief in me being a villager be suspicious in and of itself? If I flipped elim, then sure, perhaps. But you could also have been a villager I pocketed. Why are you expecting backlash in the next couple turns?

Edited June 14, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

4 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Elandera is spectating.  What is your personal reasoning for trusting Fura? The post you quoted from Drake contains mostly personal evidence about reads he acquired from PMs which he compared to a previous game. That’s unlikely to apply to your decision to trust her. 

 

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

This is either very suspicious, or Ventyl forgot my alignment will be revealed when I die. : )

Granted, this would be way more suspicious on an elim!Fura flip than a village!Fura flip.

First, I could still be saved by vote manip.

Second... Devote faith? Devout Faith? … I'm no god...

Why would your belief in me being a villager be suspicious in and of itself? If I flipped elim, then sure, perhaps. But you could also have been a villager I pocketed. Why are you expecting backlash in the next couple turns?

Oh God, I've been ninja'd.

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Oh God, I've been ninja'd.

Just to clarify, you aren't talking to me, correct? : P

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

Just to clarify, you aren't talking to me, correct? : P

I'm talking to you and Fifth. 

Edited June 14, 2019 by Ventyl

[Furamirionind]

7 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I'm talking to you and Fifth. 

Ah, I look forward to hearing you address both of our questions as well. : )

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

29 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Elandera is spectating.  What is your personal reasoning for trusting Fura? The post you quoted from Drake contains mostly personal evidence about reads he acquired from PMs which he compared to a previous game. That’s unlikely to apply to your decision to trust her. 

Alright, I'll start off with Fifth's question. I have gotten most of my trust for Fura from them telling us their role, which I just don't believe any sane elim would do. Also, I just don't trust Devotary, mainly because of gut feeling, so I'd rather go with my gut. (I forgot Elandera was spectating, oops. )

26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

This is either very suspicious, or Ventyl forgot my alignment will be revealed when I die. : )

Granted, this would be way more suspicious on an elim!Fura flip than a village!Fura flip.

First, I could still be saved by vote manip.

Second... Devote faith? Devout Faith? … I'm no god...

Why would your belief in me being a villager be suspicious in and of itself? If I flipped elim, then sure, perhaps. But you could also have been a villager I pocketed. Why are you expecting backlash in the next couple turns?

I didn't forget that your role will be revealed IF you die. Also, is it suspicious to you or just in general, because if you find it suspicious why? Yes, it will be suspicious if you flip elim, but I'm willing to take that risk, because if you're village!hazekiller, you'd be very helpful to meeting village wincon, On to your first point. You could be saved by vote manip, but that would require both the soother and rioter to use their abilities to save you. Though I find it unlikely that both soother and rioter are not in favor of lynching you, and their is the possibility of elim!soother, elim!rioter or both. On to your second point. I just meant I strongly believe that you aren't an elim!hazekiller. By saying, that I strongly believe that you're village, it could implicate elim!Ventyl, at least that's what I'd think, because what other better way to know who is not an elim than being an elim yourself? As you pointed out if you do flip elim, which I don't think you will if you do get lynched, I'm screwed either way. Also, @StrikerEZ hasn't informed me on what pocketing is so... yeah. I'm expecting backlash, because if you do turn elim, that would obviously make me look like an elim.

EDIT

Striker has informed me to what pocketing is, and to clarify Fura and me have had no pms. I did not pm anybody until this cycle.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Ventyl

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Ventyl said:

Also, @StrikerEZ hasn't informed me on what pocketing is so... yeah.

Pocketing is when an elim is trusting and friendly toward a villager in an effort to gain trust and defense in return.

[StrikerEZ]

Okay, there's only 8 minutes left before rollover!

[Sart]

Quote

The village wincon is very specifically to kill all of the rebels, and doesn't say we need to kill the Kandra in order to win. It will probably help, especially if elims start to die, but unlike last game we can afford to kill the rebels first.

The idea was since last minute lynches have the chance to kill Mistborn before they can use pewter to defend themselves, we should avoid last minute lynches to prevent that from happening. Unfortunately, letting the target see the lynch coming also gives Thugs the chance to protect themselves with pewter, and since the alignment of a Thug is not so easily determined, surviving the lynch is no longer indicative of being a villager. Aman's plan would solve this particular problem, as a village Mistborn can be distinguished from an elim Thug. Hopefully the extra time given by allowing lynchees ample time to see their end coming would give village Thugs an opportunity to avoid death by moving the lynch somewhere else. 

"This right here was when I started to suspect you. We can't easily distinguish what happens when someone survives the lynch. Even if I were a good Thug, I'd be tempted to use my powers if it meant staying on the force. You immediately follow Wilco's (Aman's) suggestion to make yourself seem more helpful. It's especially ironic that even after you're admonition to not change the votes to protect the Mistborn, we still ended up lynching the Mistborn. Just seems odd to me."

[StrikerEZ]

That's it folks! This day is over! PMs will be sent out shortly, and Night 2 will be posted soon.