Mid-Range Game 35: Final Flight

[Mailliw73]

So, my thoughts on the game so far. Fura is more aggressive than normal, but I’ve seen that in increase since the MU championships, so I don’t know that it’s indicative of elimness. I am keeping an eye on it though. 

Elandera has explained her voting habits that caught my eye originally, but they still were defining for the first couple lynches. 

Gut says Drake is good though I’ve never played with him. Same feeling about Bard. Striker feels sincere to me. 

Nothing on Xino, Ark, or Gaea since I think they post less than I am. 

I’d put Elandera on the top of my suspicion list and then Fura and one of the less active players. 

[Furamirionind]

Out of curiosity, @MrakeDarshall @Mailliw73 do you both think there are 4 slums? Dont you think that's too many with the SK out there?

I dont like how the writeup seems to imply the SK was lynched? Am I reading too much into the writeup?

[Mailliw73]

25% is a lot, true, but I don’t know how the Krell factor in. And that would just be the top 3 I’d pick to lynch, I don’t know that I believe there have to be three more. 

[DrakeMarshall]

 So, there’s some good reasons we should not coordinate our attacks too publicly tonight, or at least not with enough specificity that everybody knows what everybody else is doing.

1. If we try to track people’s actions tonight and catch people that way tonight, it disincentivizes the elims helping us deal with the lifebuster. I am hoping to leverage Bard’s plan to leave the elims with no choice but to attack the lifebuster, hopefully at the expense of their making a reliable IMP+Gunner one-two punch, and that starts with not actively discouraging their help.
2. It keeps the traitor from knowing who is targeting the lifebuster. This is huge. Whether or not the traitor has an SK wincon activated, if I were them, I would be using both of my actions to light lance people I thought would be attacking the Lifebuster, because if the traitor can prevent the Lifebuster from being destroyed, they instantly win the game.

If we do want to coordinate this, the only way we can do that safely is to significantly overkill the Lifebuster so there is no chance the traitor can sabotage our attack. This is actually fairly viable, because excess attacks would be randomly redistributed to other Krell ships, according to the rules as best I can figure.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Out of curiosity, @MrakeDarshall @Mailliw73 do you both think there are 4 slums? Dont you think that's too many with the SK out there?

Yes, I do think the elim team started as 4 players. In my experience elim teams usually aren’t balanced too heavily against an SK because the SK attacks elims and villagers alike, and that goes doubly for an SK who may never even have their SK wincon activated. (Also I prefer to err on the side of pessimism when it comes to predicting the number of elims, because it is better to be happily surprised by there being fewer elims then you thought than it is to be caught off guard by an extra elim you didn’t account for)

I was planning on explaining this in RP but I think I’d rather get this out now. Edit:

---

The thirteenth pilot sealed the cockpit of his craft. The Firedrake. He rocketed in the air. No finesse. Only speed. The time for subtlety was passed.

Fingers itching to unleash his weapons, to light up the sky with destructor fire like never before... To break the firmament.

It was time.

Time to stop the dread easter bunny overlord.

 

"This is  reportin' in. Easter egg hunt is a go. So, plannin' and stuff: I says we all just kinda swarm the thing an' hope for the best, the hell with doin' anythin' fancy. Maybe take a potshot at a random one of the escort ships, if'n you arrive late to the party an' we've already exploded the piñata. Who's with me?"

Edited June 3, 2019 by MrakeDarshall
I had a few minutes to rectify my lack of RP

[Elandera]

Bad Wolf fired up the acclivity ring on her ship and took off into the sky once again, responding to the call for a battle. On her way, she started to hear rumors. Rumors that chilled her to the bone.

A lifebuster.

"Bad Wolf reporting," she said as she turned her ship toward the incoming Krell. "Where do you want me?"

Steel responded with coordinates and an order. "Get here fast. There's a lifebuster on the way. We need to take it down now."

"On my way," she said, working to keep the quiver from her voice. She was Bad Wolf now, and Bad Wolf would not be afraid.

She lifted into the air with a few other pilots who'd been given the same order. They all engaged afterburners. There was no time to lose with a lifebuster.

"So, plannin' and stuff: I says we all just kinda swarm the thing an' hope for the best, the hell with doin' anythin' fancy," said  over the comms. "Maybe take a potshot at a random one of the escort ships, if'n you arrive late to the party an' we've already exploded the piñata. Who's with me?"

"I am," Bad Wolf responded. "Let's take this thing down now."

She closed her transmission and whispered to herself.

"Bad Wolf, defender of Detritus."

Edited June 3, 2019 by Elandera

[Steeldancer]

About an hour remaining until the turn ends. Get your actions in. 

[Furamirionind]

Hey everyone. I don't really feel like attacking the Krell tonight. You all ok with that?

[Elandera]

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Hey everyone. I don't really feel like attacking the Krell tonight. You all ok with that?

Uh... What? You don't feel like attacking when there's a lifebuster that could end the game?

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Uh... What? You don't feel like attacking when there's a lifebuster that could end the game?

No! Doomslug is visiting me!

[Elandera]

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

No! Doomslug is visiting me!

Oh! Does that mean you can't take an action? Interesting.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Oh! Does that mean you can't take an action? Interesting.

I can. I just want to take a different action. One that Steel has not told me is invalid. xD

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I can. I just want to take a different action. One that Steel has not told me is invalid. xD

Well, we should have enough people to handle it. Good luck with Doomslug!

[Steeldancer]

The turn is over. The new turn should be up shortly. 

[Steeldancer]

Day 5- Releasing the Radiance I Feared to Share
His flight was so small now. But they were all that stood before Alta Base and that Lifebuster. And the escort Krell attacked anything that attacked it. 
He even saw a rebel turret get swarmed by a few Krell, for daring to shoot at the thing. At that sight, Llerk and Paradise Song left the formation, leaving them exposed on the sides. He knew they would have to deal with the consequences of failing to fill their duty later on. For now, Steel and his flight plugged onward, through Krell fire. 
Lightlances, IMPs, and destructors all just barely turned the thing away. Thankfully, the Lifebuster only had a few escorts, or it would have ended a lot worse than it did. They managed to force the ship farther away from Alta Base, and then knock the thing out of the sky with a few well placed IMP missiles and destructor blasts. But only just barely. 
The flight landed, and Steel spared a glance for Llerk and Paradise Song. "Skull Flight. I'm calling a meeting. I am nearly certain there are several traitors from Bountiful Cavern in this flight. We should have been able to shoot down that thing better than we did, even with our forces this low. We are sitting down, until we figure out who the traitors are."
The rest of the flight looked properly intimidated. Good. Steel was going to get the truth out of these pilots whether they liked it or not. He couldn't afford to fly with people he couldn't trust. Not anymore. 

Doomslug liked head scratches, and fluted affectionately at the individual scratching her. Much better than being shoved into a gun, she was sure of that. 
____________
The lifebuster was shot down, and the crisis averted. No one was shot down. 
PMs are closed. You should have already gotten your GM PM. Remember to submit repair actions and ship requests. This turn will end at 8:00 AM 6/5/19, an extra 12 hours because I won't be around tomorrow night to do rollover. And for the rest of this week. 
Starting vote count:
xxGaea (1)
Xinoehp (1) 

Spoiler

Largo-1

Largo-2: 5/8 health

Largo-3: shields down

Fresa-1

Fresa-2

Fresa-3

Fresa-4

Fresa-6

Poco-1

Poco-12

Poco-3

Poco-7

Poco-8

Poco-10

Poco-11

Spoiler

1. Snipexe, "Scissors" Pilot, Wingmate to Joe
2. Xinoehp512, "Llerk"
3. Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna 
4. Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” Stromberg
5. Devotary, “Yaw(n)” Yafrion Pilot
6. Ark1002, Bard "Bastard" Dominion
7. Furamirionind, Julis "Junior" Elliot
8. Lumgol "Preciousss" Pilot
9. StrikerEZ, Seth "Striker" Johnson
10. Young Bard, Rivelda "Topsy-Turvy" Kline
11. Sart, Sarah "Seraph" Potts Pilot
12. Darkness Ascendent, Noel "Skinny Ship" Miller Pilot, Wingmate to Walin
13. Walin, Ildem "Isekai Inbred" Pilot, Wingmate to DA
14. XXGaea, Iradesca "Paradise Song" Aleh
15. A Joe in the Bush, Knowstoo "Number 4" Much Rebel Pilot, Snipexe's Wingmate
16. _Stick_, Stick "somethingcool" stick Pilot
17. Drake "" Marshall

 

[Furamirionind]

Success! Doomslug told me what her wincon is!

Um... unfortunately, as I dont speak her language, I still don't know what it is...

[DrakeMarshall]

Traitors in our midst, you say, sir? Well, I've already gone an' explained why I'm thinkin' Brenna (Elandera) is a reb.

So, I haven't the foggiest idea on a fairly foggy day what'n the world (or outta it) a doomslug is. Anyone care to explain? What's so doom-ful 'bout a slug? I'm not seein' much doom comin' offa any slugs, though maybe they're just bein... Sluggish.

'Less yonder slug is what broke into my vegetable garden. In that case, doomslug is a perfect name for the blighter.

Edited June 4, 2019 by MrakeDarshall

[Elandera]

Brenna Rose was getting more and more frustrated with the outcome of the fights. They were holding off the Krell, but not well enough. Steel was right. They'd come too close to losing Alta. They needed to weed out the rebels.

"I think we should start with Drake  Marshall," she said as they sat under the glare of Steel. "Things don't add up with him, especially after Number 4 died."

---

Time to respond to the suspicions. @MrakeDarshall

Your first point against me was that I assumed Devotary was shot down by gunners. That was a misunderstanding of the rules, thinking the Krell and Pilot ships worked the same way. I knew that Krell could shoot down pilots, but I figured it would be very strange RNG to have enough attacks on one person (among an almost complete flight) by the Krell to have shot them down.

My push to lynch you came as I started to review past cycles and see a connection between yourself, Bard, and Joe. I don't think it would be a good idea to counter initial suspicion with a push to lynch when, in your hypothesis, I would know you'd flip village. That would turn on me pretty quickly.

I can't really counter a gut read, as it's a good portion of what I have on you, so *shrug*. It is what it is.

Traditionally, I have over-analyzed and questioned so many of my decisions. I've been trying to curb that lately when it comes to gut reads since I usually find my gut is better than my brain in determining elimineyness (yes, I'm sticking to that word). So I'm trying to play that if there's reasonable suspicion against a person, and not enough reason to move it to someone else, I'm going to stick with it. I also can't help that I've lynched a few villagers. Everyone else has too, considering the only elim death seemed to be a result of wingmate rules.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Elandera
Added the tag...

[+Ark1002]

So, right now we have Elandra and Drake as our suspects, each gunning for the other. This could be an act, and both of them could be elims.

But I doubt it.

Drake defended himself well, and had a good argument for Elandra. Therefore, I am more on the side of suspecting Elandra.

If she turns out to be village, I think Drake is probably and Elim, and would also bet Bard would flip Elim with him.

But I'm not sure.

For now, Elandera.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Ark1002
typo

[Furamirionind]

I find Ark's analysis very suspect

for now I will be placing my vote on him. I need to reread his previous games however. In particular, I will be rereading his roles in LG54 and LG49. Primarily the former.

After my reread, I will be saying why or retracting my vote

Ark1002

[+Ark1002]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

I find Ark's analysis very suspect

for now I will be placing my vote on him. I need to reread his previous games however. In particular, I will be rereading his roles in LG54 and LG49. Primarily the former.

After my reread, I will be saying why or retracting my vote

Ark1002

Which one was LG54, and which was 49?

Also, what about my analysis was suspect? I stated only things already stated. Drake argued himself out of being an elim, so I'm most not suspicious of him. He had an argument against Elandra, so I'm suspicious of Elandra. If Elandra is village, then maybe Drake was elim after all. I also believe someone stated Bard would be the likely cantidate for the other elim if Drake flipped Elim. So I mentioned that.

I'm sorry that it wasn't a very detailed post, but I'm short on time and was just getting my initial thoughts out there.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Ark1002 said:

Which one was LG54, and which was 49?

Also, what about my analysis was suspect? I stated only things already stated. Drake argued himself out of being an elim, so I'm most not suspicious of him. He had an argument against Elandra, so I'm suspicious of Elandra. If Elandra is village, then maybe Drake was elim after all. I also believe someone stated Bard would be the likely cantidate for the other elim if Drake flipped Elim. So I mentioned that.

I'm sorry that it wasn't a very detailed post, but I'm short on time and was just getting my initial thoughts out there.

The main thing is you say if Elandera is village, Drake and Bard are probably evil.

Now imagine, if none are elims, according to your logic, what we should do is lynch Elandera, then Drake, then Bard.

What are the chances of none of them being elims? Fairly low.

But that doesn't change the fact that you seem to be setting up a lynch/mislynch train. I am looking into your meta. Your most active game was LG54, and the closest you have ever come before to being an elim was in LG49. So that is why I am looking at those 2 games.

[+Ark1002]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

The main thing is you say if Elandera is village, Drake and Bard are probably evil.

Now imagine, if none are elims, according to your logic, what we should do is lynch Elandera, then Drake, then Bard.

What are the chances of none of them being elims? Fairly low.

But that doesn't change the fact that you seem to be setting up a lynch/mislynch train. I am looking into your meta. Your most active game was LG54, and the closest you have ever come before to being an elim was in LG49. So that is why I am looking at those 2 games.

I'm not saying we should lynch all three.

I'm saying we should lynch elandera, and if she doesn't turn elim we should look into Drake. If he is lynched, which isn't what I'm saying we should do, we'll find out his alignment. If he isn't elim, I don't think Bard will be. If he is, I think we should try and lynch Bard.

I'm not trying to set up a lynch/mislynch train. I'm just trying to state my ideas for the future.

Also, if Elandera is elim, who do you think the others will be?
Thank you and good night.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, sure. I'll take my vote off you for now. Though I will still be rereading your previous games. : )

I haven't done a single reread of this thread this game. So I don't have an answer to you about who Elandera's teammates would be. Elandera and Drake are the 2 I am most interested in looking into though, so the lynch so far seems in line with my gut.

While Maill posted some analysis in the past 24 hours I believe, I would still like to hear a bit more from him. So just to add a bit of pressure, I'll cast my vote on him for now.

Ark1002
Maill

[DrakeMarshall]

13 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

I'm saying we should lynch elandera, and if she doesn't turn elim we should look into Drake.

I’m fine with this.

I’m eighty five percent sure Elandera is an eliminator (for reference, the average accuracy of lynchings is roughly thirty percent, so while I am leaving room for reasonable doubt, eighty five percent is still pretty high).

If I’m wrong about Elandera I deserve some backlash.

[Mailliw73]

I think I’m going with Elandera too, even though she is one of the only two players to PM me. Her voting patterns, while voting on villagers is something we all do, have been...interesting. Decisive for the rest of the lynch in some cases. I am really sorry that I haven’t paid as much attention to this game, Steel. And Fura. This is the most analysis I have so far.