Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Fifth Scholar]

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Is his omission from the player list intentional?

The player list is fully correct.  However, it may not contain a comprehensive list of those who are interacting with the game through indirect means. For instance, I can be lynched, even though I’m not in the playerlist (and neither is Elend).

[Lumgol]

Joe is secret.

[CadCom]

 

 

 

 

2

1 hour ago, Adavantos said:

The last paragraph in particular feels elim-y to me. To be more specific, the last sentence, "Call it a gut feeling." seems to be a retroactive explanation, as if he decided who to vote for before finding a reason. I think more often than not, a villager would lead into the vote with their reasoning. Thus I'm going to lay my vote on CadCom for now.

 

 

 

 

2

41 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Oo, ninjad by CadCom. Nothing to say in response to the vote @Cadmium Compounder?

I mean, I can't really disagree with the reasoning, just the conclusion. Unfortunately, there's nothing that I can do on D1 to disprove it. However, I can add that the reason I voted on Rand was only partially due to his first post, and partially that it was just a gut feeling. A gut feeling that his further posts seem to help me alleviate. At this point, I won't remove my vote, but when I have time to do an additional read-through, I will most likely remove my vote from him at that time

[Furamirionind]

Ok, I just checked the writeup for white text. None xD.

This is definitely one of the secrets, but it seems kind of... Strange.

57 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Rand. Although I see your logic here, and you've stated in your defense that you forgot about the fact that PM's are night only, it's just not sitting very well with me right now. This could be because in previous games (notably QF37), you seemed very concerned about PM safety and revealing relatively little information in them, and now you're advocating for us to rely heavily on PM's to share our trusts and suspicions?

I don't think I have ever played a game with Rand before that had PMs for any decent length of time. However it is worth noting that that game was a fairly standard game but with breath mechanics.  This game has 2 SKs that need to kill the elims.  While I don't 100% agree with Rand's idea, his point is good, that if we aren't careful, we will be leading the SKs to victory.

57 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Personally, I think that although it is important to not let the Unstable Mistborn kill the elims too fast, one way in which we can try to avert this by focusing more on trying to eliminate the Unstable Mistborn. As important as finding and killing the elims is, killing the Mistborn won't end the game for the village like killing the elims but letting the Mistborn survive will. Am I saying we should ignore our suspicions for the elims? Absolutely not. If there's any players who are clearly suspected, we should definitely say so and keep an eye on them, and lynch them unless there's only 1 or 2 elims left and the Mistborn are still alive. 

If 1 or 2 elims die early, we will have to focus hard on the SKs, as they will be hard to kill. But otherwise, we should definitely be working on both.

54 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Lumgol How do you propose we specifically search for Mistborn as opposed to the eliminators? I think right now all we can really do is see who isn't village. Lumgol.

This is a dangerous thing to do. D1, sure. We can't do a lot to target specific alignments on D1, but once we have a turn of PMs under our belts, I think focusing on one thing at a time will be very doable.

It is tough with the day being so long, and the night being so short, but my first thought, is what if we focus the thread toward finding the SK, sharing info on SK suspicions etc, and focus PMs on finding elims? We of course do a bit of both in both places, but I am just talking focus.

This means that the Mistborn don't get as much info on who the elims are until after they are dead.
The elims get info on the Mistborn, but they don't really care.

The suspicions on elims and stuff would then be shared in public once the Mistborn are dead, and then it becomes a typical village/elim game.

Edit: Oh, ninja'd by CadCom

Edited May 17, 2019 by Furamirionind

[CadCom]

Oh, I also wanted to say that I suspect Joe is kelsier, since he's not showing up anywhere.

Spoiler

Meaning he's possibly got some goal to protect Vin.

 Or he could be Hoid. In that case we have no idea what his intentions are 

Edited May 17, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Lumgol]

Vote count: 

Rand (3) - CadCom, Lumgol, Ark
Lumgol (2) - Araris, Fura
CadCom (2) - Adavantos, Young Bard
Mailliw (1) - Rand
Stick (1) - Straw
HH (1) - Steel
Straw (1) - HH

These are still pretty spread out. For now, I'd advise trying to make sure to have at least 4 votes on a player to avoid elim hammers on Elend.
This is still D1, so there isn't really that much to analyze, but we're starting to make more constructive posts instead of just RP and checking in, so people should have at least a little player evidence to think about.

[Steeldancer]

57 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

@Lumgol How do you propose we specifically search for Mistborn as opposed to the eliminators? I think right now all we can really do is see who isn't village. Lumgol.

You use me. As I said, I'll be focusing my efforts on finding the SK this game. I'll let others do the analysis attempting to figure out who the eliminators are. I've already started trying to figure out what I would do if I were an SK. Granted, I didn't play with a fellow serial killer last time, but I HAVE played with an SK partner before, if you remember LG45 (or whatever the Elantris one was). So I know how to do that too. Ironically now I'm playing the part of Seonid, my nemesis... well whatever. Right now, I have nothing to work with. If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious. However, I won't have anything hard to work with until the first sk kill occurs. Because whoever the sk kills, they were suspicious of. Then, I group people based on whether they expressed suspicion on them at some point, and whether they did not. Then I work from there, identifying patterns and whatnot. Obviously, it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express suspicion on publically. Hopefully by narrowing this down, we can determine who zane is, and from there Vin is much easier to deal with. 
There's also the matter of what a serial killer claims as, Zane is likely to claim as a thug if not forced into a situation where he is publically forced to use a different power. Vin... well, I'm not sure. Vin will probably be the harder of the two to pin down in my opinion, but is just less threatening. 
I also say, figuring out who the eliminators are in thread isn't a bad thing. We still need to do analysis. We just need to be aware of the fact that the serial killers will appear village, except in their actions. So, action scanners, you need to be on high alert, and scan for things. Look for the metals that Zane could be using (which I usually used Copper and Steel each night during LG41, so if someone has no metals on usage, they could be suspicious). I'm not sure how the relationship between Zane and Vin could play out in thread, in how they interact with each other, but I'll be keeping my eyes out for any unusual information spreading. Although, granted, that pattern is usually also indicative of elims, since they have a document to share info in. 
And if anyone decides to vote on me because "oh Steel doesn't care about finding the eliminators," think about it for a minute, and then reconsider. I will be much happier hunting Zane and Vin than finding the eliminators. 
Oh, one last thing. The hazekiller, you need to be on your toes about who you help out. That's what allowed me to win in LG41, was the Hazekiller. I never would have pulled it off otherwise. I might even recommend working with a scanner or something to help you figure out who to give powers to. 
I think that should be all I have to say for now. Hemalurgic Headshot still hasn't checked in, so I'm going to keep my vote where it is. 

[Amanuensis]

28 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I mean, I can't really disagree with the reasoning, just the conclusion. Unfortunately, there's nothing that I can do on D1 to disprove it. However, I can add that the reason I voted on Rand was only partially due to his first post, and partially that it was just a gut feeling. A gut feeling that his further posts seem to help me alleviate. At this point, I won't remove my vote, but when I have time to do an additional read-through, I will most likely remove my vote from him at that time

It's D1 so if anything the odds of you being an elim are low. However I think I'll stick with this vote for now. We still have over 24 hours left in the turn, yes? That said, I think I'd rather lynch Lumgol over Rand. The same post Araris commented / voted on makes me feel a little uneasy.

[Steeldancer]

@Fifth Scholar Could you clarify about Vin? Does she receive one single power each cycle? The rules aren't clear whether she has 4 powers and is random between Tin 1 and 2, or whether she would only receive a single power. 

[Fifth Scholar]

She recieves one power each cycle, between Lurcher 1, Tineye 1, Tineye 2, Thug 1, Seeker 2 and Smoker 1. Apologies for any confusion.

[Steeldancer]

Alright then, with no steel, and no consistent power set, Vin should be a lot easier to pin down once Zane is dead. She won't be able to consistently prove any ability. 

[Araris Valerian]

Unless I'm very mistaken, the unstable Mistborn aren't really serial killers. They have (almost) the same win condition as the village, although the two are mutually exclusive, but the usual SK role has the goal of killing everyone.

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Unless I'm very mistaken, the unstable Mistborn aren't really serial killers. They have (almost) the same win condition as the village, although the two are mutually exclusive, but the usual SK role has the goal of killing everyone.

Well, unless you got a better word, I'll keep calling them SK's. They're just as deadly to everyone as a standard SK. And... I fail to see how it is relevant what exactly they're called. We need to kill them both before we finish off the eliminators, and that's that. 

[DeTess]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Unless I'm very mistaken, the unstable Mistborn aren't really serial killers. They have (almost) the same win condition as the village, although the two are mutually exclusive, but the usual SK role has the goal of killing everyone.

That actually makes them more difficult to pin down though, because as has been said before, in thread they'd appear to be pure village because they have the same objective.

2 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Rand. Although I see your logic here, and you've stated in your defense that you forgot about the fact that PM's are night only, it's just not sitting very well with me right now. This could be because in previous games (notably QF37), you seemed very concerned about PM safety and revealing relatively little information in them, and now you're advocating for us to rely heavily on PM's to share our trusts and suspicions?

This actually came up during QF37 as well: that by sharing information with a limited amount of people (as opposed to for example, everyone), you can gain information by seeing what happens. If you make a good case against someone that has been flying under the radar in PM's, and that person subsequently dies to a night-kill, it suggests that someone in your PM-circle might be Zane. If everyone has the info about that suspicion, no new information is gained.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Randuir

[STINK]

54 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

You use me. As I said, I'll be focusing my efforts on finding the SK this game. I'll let others do the analysis attempting to figure out who the eliminators are. I've already started trying to figure out what I would do if I were an SK. Granted, I didn't play with a fellow serial killer last time, but I HAVE played with an SK partner before, if you remember LG45 (or whatever the Elantris one was). So I know how to do that too. Ironically now I'm playing the part of Seonid, my nemesis... well whatever. Right now, I have nothing to work with. If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious. However, I won't have anything hard to work with until the first sk kill occurs. Because whoever the sk kills, they were suspicious of. Then, I group people based on whether they expressed suspicion on them at some point, and whether they did not. Then I work from there, identifying patterns and whatnot. Obviously, it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express suspicion on publically. Hopefully by narrowing this down, we can determine who zane is, and from there Vin is much easier to deal with. 
There's also the matter of what a serial killer claims as, Zane is likely to claim as a thug if not forced into a situation where he is publically forced to use a different power. Vin... well, I'm not sure. Vin will probably be the harder of the two to pin down in my opinion, but is just less threatening. 
I also say, figuring out who the eliminators are in thread isn't a bad thing. We still need to do analysis. We just need to be aware of the fact that the serial killers will appear village, except in their actions. So, action scanners, you need to be on high alert, and scan for things. Look for the metals that Zane could be using (which I usually used Copper and Steel each night during LG41, so if someone has no metals on usage, they could be suspicious). I'm not sure how the relationship between Zane and Vin could play out in thread, in how they interact with each other, but I'll be keeping my eyes out for any unusual information spreading. Although, granted, that pattern is usually also indicative of elims, since they have a document to share info in. 
And if anyone decides to vote on me because "oh Steel doesn't care about finding the eliminators," think about it for a minute, and then reconsider. I will be much happier hunting Zane and Vin than finding the eliminators. 
Oh, one last thing. The hazekiller, you need to be on your toes about who you help out. That's what allowed me to win in LG41, was the Hazekiller. I never would have pulled it off otherwise. I might even recommend working with a scanner or something to help you figure out who to give powers to. 
I think that should be all I have to say for now. Hemalurgic Headshot still hasn't checked in, so I'm going to keep my vote where it is. 

Much has been said here, and you have given many points to think about.

Also, this concept of poking is not exactly that effective based on what I have seen. Either they are inactive and cannot see the poking, or are active and would not need the poking anyway. When considering supposedly evil people doing a giant poke on our ruler-of-all-within-this-scope, spreading votes for tiny poke is silly, yes?

[Straw]

9 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Hey Straw. Do you have any thoughts on the game so far? Any comments on Fura's role analysis?

EDIT: So I got notified for Straw's post, but not Rand's, so I almost missed it. I'm leaning against Rand's idea - if it looks like Zane is knocking off all the primary candidates for being an Elim, then it's quite possible they'll expose themselves in the process, either by the Thug 1 role if there is one or by leaving themselves (and Vin) under suspicion as Zane knocks out the competition for the lynch. Holding our suspicions closer to our chest will make it that much harder to analyse for both the Eliminators and the Mistborn.

I was in a rush, and I just wanted to throw in a poke vote. I'm also a bit busy right now, but I'll do some more analysis later.

Stick has now posted.

[Lumgol]

25 minutes ago, Randuir said:

This actually came up during QF37 as well: that by sharing information with a limited amount of people (as opposed to for example, everyone), you can gain information by seeing what happens. If you make a good case against someone that has been flying under the radar in PM's, and that person subsequently dies to a night-kill, it suggests that someone in your PM-circle might be Zane. If everyone has the info about that suspicion, no new information is gained.

That's a good point. So you're saying that PM's are a better choice in this game because they tend to benefit the village, rather than benefiting the elims as in QF37?

Edited May 17, 2019 by Lumgol

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

@Steeldancer I have checked in. I posted not too long after you did, with a literary analysis of why my vote on Straw has basis.

[Steeldancer]

oh. whoops. hemalurgic headshot. not entirely sure how I missed that. 

[Arrae]

General thoughts:

Right now, I'd say that Lekal's Subordinates should be a higher priority than the Unstable Mistborn. The Subordinates want to get rid of all non-subordinates, whereas the Mistborn want to get rid of the Subordinates. I'd much rather get rid of people gunning for me than people gunning for a mutual enemy. Thus, we should keep discussion public because it's been proven in multiple games that it helps get rid of elims faster. Once we get a few Subordinates down, then Mistborn might start becoming a higher priority.

The Mistborn win if at least one of them is still alive after all the Subordinates are dead. Essentially, they're vigilantes in a team who don't want to be caught. Based off of my experience, one of their tells could be that they will name suspicion of somebody, but not vote on them because they know that they've already sent in a kill order on that person, so there's no need to try to lynch them now.

More specific thoughts:

I'm conflicted on the Rand thing. I don't like his idea, and it's possible that it could be proposed by an elim who wants to be able to skate by and have less people analyze each of his stated suspicion. On the other hand, attempting to do things differently to compensate for added complexity does seem villagery. I haven't seen enough to decide either way.

Moving on to others. Araris stated that somebody has to be lynched today. That's a statement that I'd like explained.

[Mailliw73]

6 hours ago, Lumgol said:

4 elims follows the 50% rule most closely, but the number of elims might have been lowered to 3 because of the 2 Mistborn and any secret roles that might exist. My gut says 4 is more likely, and we have a bit over 20 players so 4 elims + 2 neutral serial-killer type people out of... 22? players seems reasonable.

Lady Tourange dropped her jaw at the report on Aname’s hypothesis. An equal amount of rebels to loyalists? Well, if that were the case, Laila would just leave Luthadel and let the idiots who were rebelling have it. She couldn’t fight half the city! 

There were also talks of a Finn Seidel, but no one had actually seen or heard from him in days. He hadn’t been found dead; he had just . . . disappeared. Laila sent her servants out to specifically gather more information on this Seidel fellow, she found it intriguing. 

Lord Ruler, this city is full of fools since you died, but it’s still your city. I want to free it for you. 

[Lumgol]

Oops, I meant the 20% rule

Not syre why I typed 50%

[Elandera]

I was severely confused in what time this turn ended. I should have time to catch up tomorrow before the end and cast a meaningful vote, but for now, I've only been skimming. I'll need to read the rules again as well before I can comment on strategy.

2 hours ago, Arraenae said:

Moving on to others. Araris stated that somebody has to be lynched today. That's a statement that I'd like explained.

From what I understand, the lynch is a no-majority, so even if we vote on no one, someone will be lynched. Also, we need to find someone and give them a significant number of votes (I'd venture to say at least 6), so we don't end up with an elim hammer on the GM. So yes, somebody has to be lynched today.

[Arrae]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

I was severely confused in what time this turn ended. I should have time to catch up tomorrow before the end and cast a meaningful vote, but for now, I've only been skimming. I'll need to read the rules again as well before I can comment on strategy.

From what I understand, the lynch is a no-majority, so even if we vote on no one, someone will be lynched. Also, we need to find someone and give them a significant number of votes (I'd venture to say at least 6), so we don't end up with an elim hammer on the GM. So yes, somebody has to be lynched today.

That makes sense. Araris.

[Young Bard]

OK, so we've gathered that Joe is a player, but not on the player list, and that's deliberate rather than GM oversight?

Joe (Finn Seidel). I'd like an explanation - I'm assuming you're able to speak in the thread, but you haven't yet. (CadCom)