Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Furamirionind]

30 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

I am so, so sorry. I had a camping trip and didn’t have service, and I totally forgot to post about it. I should be able to be active from now on. Why are we voting for Lum?

Welcome back to the land of the living Snipexe! : )

This post explains why I am suspicious of Lum:

I redirected her to herself last night, however, there was no kill to redirect. As she knew I was redirecting her, she would have died if she had submitted the kill... Hence why there was no kill.

I have not been able to do a thorough reread of Lum's interactions as I was intending, however, if I am able to today, I will post what I find.

[Lumgol]

So, bear with me while I try to explain why I think Fura is elim.

Part 1

I'll say my weakest argument first. Although I never really trusted Maill this game, he did happen to be right. He suspected Steel and Devotary early on in the game, he told me that Rath was an elim the night during which he was killed, and that same night, Maill told me in PM's that he suspected Fura.

Part 2

Now, looking at PM's: When I told a few people what Fura's role is, Fura threatened to redirect the elim kill onto those people. Even though Fura stated later that that wasn't their actual plan (which I'll go into later), this threat implied that Fura knew who was going to submit the kill.

Fura stated later that they intended to redirect the kill onto whomever I mentioned to them. Why? Village!me wouldn't tell Fura's role to people who I think are evil. Elim!me would give Fura the names of some villagers to frame. Either way, there is no reason to suspect the people I mentioned to Fura for that reason alone.

Which brings me to my next point. CadCom was one of the people to whom I told Fura's role. CadCom died that night. What I gave Fura was a list of people who knew too much information and therefore needed to be killed.

Part 3

Early on in the game, Fura mostly just analyzed mechanics. I don't remember Fura ever starting or really spearheading a suspicion of someone early in the game. They were just lying low.

There's almost certainly only one elim left now. If it's Fura, Fura's probably on their own. With a large portion of the players cleared, Fura is one of the remaining people who hasn't really been cleared yet, so they need to deflect suspicion onto someone else. Namely myself. If Fura really suspected me for a while, why did they only suddenly mention it today? Fura's posts look less like genuine suspicion and more like a desperate framing attempt strongly based on the assumption that Fura is innocent.

Last night, the elim failed to submit a kill, obviously to frame me since it was openly stated that Fura was going to redirect the kill onto me. To that elim, keeping the suspicion on me is, for some reason, more important than killing another villager. With most players at least somewhat cleared, and Fura not being one of the cleared players, it must be especially important to keep me both alive and under suspicion. That, I think, is why no kill was submitted. It would benefit Fura in this situation to keep suspicion alive more than it would benefit Fura to actually get closer to outnumbering the village.

Conclusions?

The more I look into Fura this game, the more it makes sense for them to be elim. If you've been a less active player this game, I urge you to look at this post and put in some votes, whomever they may be for. Fura is certainly the most active player right now, and if little to none of the rest of the players vote, we'll have another mislynch and the person I most suspect as elim will be pretty much the only active player in the game. If you haven't voted or posted yet today, I urge you to come forward and vote for Fura.

[Snipexe]

Quick question before I vote, is the elim kill an action or is it separate?

[Lumgol]

2 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Quick question before I vote, is the elim kill an action or is it separate?

I don't think it says so in the rules. @Fifth Scholar, can you please clarify?

[Fifth Scholar]

1 minute ago, Lumgol said:

I don't think it says so in the rules. @Fifth Scholar, can you please clarify?

It’s not in the rules, but it is in the clarifications.  But to reiterate, the Eliminator kill is an action, yes. 

[Snipexe]

So I assumed it wasn't, so I actually have a few more questions:

What did Fura claim in thread/in pms regarding their role?

Have they proved their role? (this is related to the elim potential by the way)

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Snipexe said:

So I assumed it wasn't, so I actually have a few more questions:

What did Fura claim in thread/in pms regarding their role?

Have they proved their role? (this is related to the elim potential by the way)

Fura has claimed Rioter 2, and I've voted on them D3, thus scanning their role and it also came up as Rioter 2.

[Furamirionind]

Data connection is inconsistant and I am at my theater. I can address everything Lum has said about me, some is just plain false, though her biggest arguements are good. but as I am running sound, I dont have time to address them.

The quickest response I can give is, if I am an elim, and I am casting suspicion on you, I wouldnt want you dead, as once you die, I am now a suspect. So I still would have submitted a kill to minimize the chance of getting lynched imidiately after you.  I also would be pushing for someone I dont think I will imidiately get lynched, as that way i have another turn before suspicion of me gets too high.

Hopefully this post makes sense as it is rushed.

That's all the time I have. I will try to be on before rollove

Also, I redirected stick to herself twice. That's how we caught stick. I saw she was smoked, claimed a role Zane had, then I forced her to attack herself.

[Lumgol]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, I redirected stick to herself twice. That's how we caught stick. I saw she was smoked, claimed a role Zane had, then I forced her to attack herself.

This does not make you more village in any way. Elims have just as much motivation to go after Mistborn as the village.

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

The quickest response I can give is, if I am an elim, and I am casting suspicion on you, I wouldnt want you dead, as once you die, I am now a suspect. So I still would have submitted a kill to minimize the chance of getting lynched imidiately after you.  I also would be pushing for someone I dont think I will imidiately get lynched, as that way i have another turn before suspicion of me gets too high.

Exactly. You need to keep me suspected, but you also need to keep me around, which is why you didn't kill either me or anyone. Not killing anyone is the only choice for you, since it's the only option that both keeps me alive and suspected. As for pushing for someone who "won't immediately get lynched", how would you go about that? Would you, then, try to vote for someone who's been cleared? That would only make you more suspicious. As someone who's currently leading discussion, people will at least consider suspecting those who you suspect. Your arguments against me make sense. I don't think there's a way to cause suspicion on someone and just guarantee that people will keep them around nonetheless, unless the person you suspect is a cleared villager.

[Furamirionind]

24 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

This does not make you more village in any way. Elims have just as much motivation to go after Mistborn as the village.

Exactly. You need to keep me suspected, but you also need to keep me around, which is why you didn't kill either me or anyone. Not killing anyone is the only choice for you, since it's the only option that both keeps me alive and suspected. As for pushing for someone who "won't immediately get lynched", how would you go about that? Would you, then, try to vote for someone who's been cleared? That would only make you more suspicious. As someone who's currently leading discussion, people will at least consider suspecting those who you suspect. Your arguments against me make sense. I don't think there's a way to cause suspicion on someone and just guarantee that people will keep them around nonetheless, unless the person you suspect is a cleared villager.

The last part (first part in your post) was for Snipexe. Going after the mistborn is NAI especially after they started killing elims.

That is very, very much 100% false. Why am I pushing for your lynch if I want you alive to soak up my suspicions? Killing anyone else would also have been possible? If I am an elim, why didnt I kill snipexe? HH? Coop? Straw? Snipexe is dangerous and HH and straw have shown they arent 100% inactive. Especially straw.

A no kill would have been better a cycle ago to avoid Coop getting cleared (hi @coop772 I see you). Coop was basically a guaranteed mislynch then.

Your logic makes no sense. Also, why are you pushing for my lynch in the one time over the entire week I cant properly respond? I put my suspicions of you out almost a week ago.

If we can get at least coop and another active villager, I will accept my lynch, but currently I am afraid we will lose the game to inactivity tonight with a mislynch.

Edited June 8, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Lumgol]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Killing anyone else would also have been possible? If I am an elim, why didnt I kill snipexe? HH? Coop? Straw? Snipexe is dangerous and HH and straw have shown they arent 100% inactive. Especially straw.

Submitting a kill onto anyone would have proven that I'm village, since if I were elim and sumbitted a kill and you redirected the kill onto me, I would have died.

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, why are you pushing for my lynch in the one time over the entire week I cant properly respond? I put my suspicions of you out almost a week ago.

I only really started to consider the possibility of you being elim a couple days ago, and since I was away yesterday, I could only take the time to formulate my suspicions today. My vote on you D3 was mostly out of paranoia rather than real suspicion.

5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If we can get at least coop and another active villager, I will accept my lynch, but currently I am afraid we will lose the game to inactivity tonight with a mislynch.

Did you just... out yourself? Implying that a lynch on me would be a mislynch? 

[Straw]

26 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Did you just... out yourself? Implying that a lynch on me would be a mislynch? 

It looks like he's saying that if he is mislynched, the village will lose due to inactivity.

[Lumgol]

6 hours ago, Straw said:

It looks like he's saying that if he is mislynched, the village will lose due to inactivity.

That makes a LOT more sense.

 

Double post, but I'd like to point out that the votes are 2:1 on your side. The person who will be mislynched, if nothing else happens, is me.

If I'm lynched, we'll just have an elim and a bunch of inactive or slightly-active players (That's if Fura is indeed the elim). That looks like a losing situation for the village. The village will lose due to inactivity because of failing to step forward and look for the elim.

If Fura is lynched and flips elim, the village wins (unless there's another elim, which is unlikely). If Fura is lynched and flips village, well then... that won't be good at all, since that will make me look very suspicious and will cause not one but 2 mislynches. Regardless of the situation, however, "loss due to inactivity", per se, is much more likely if I am lynched and it is the situation that will cause my lynch, if any.

[Coop772]

Hi All!  I exist! Fura!

[Lumgol]

2 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

Hi All!  I exist! Fura!

 You exist!

[Coop772]

I do! And given what I read, a Fura lynch seems the most safe for me, as a villager. 

 

[Snipexe]

Lum Sorry, but at this current time, the evidence against you seems stronger. If you are not an elim it seems obvious that Fura is.

[Fifth Scholar]

The cycle is over. As usual, please PAFO to see if the game has concluded with it.  

[Fifth Scholar]

Elend’s men had performed a near-unceasing vigil during the night, eyeing each of their neighbours with suspicion and keeping daggers underneath their pillows; another murder was anticipated. It was a tired and haggard force which therefore awoke the next day to the shocked realisation that the customary whittling of their number had not been effected; indeed, had not been attempted in the first place. Far from banishing the calls for collective action against a killer, however, such an occurrence only strengthened the resolve of the gutted inner circle which surrounded Elend Venture that one of their number should be held responsible for unmitigated treason against their leader, and the lack of a killing seemed to confirm the worst fears of a quieter group of advisors, which rose to protest the vocal role that Aname Plees had taken of late. What had before been seen as a necessary continuation of her influence in finding and subduing Vin had soured into suspicion that an elaborate ruse had been practised on them all. 

So it was that Ford Prefect, along with Snip and Abe, rose against Aname, seeking to quickly dispatch her before serious retaliation could be considered. However, as the day had grown long in the midst of the heated debate, the snowy owl with which Aname had a natural affinity woke from its long slumber in the dark recesses of the room, sensing the approach of night. Upon viewing danger to Aname, Heer Kilyal II sprang from his perch, alighting on Ford’s head and driving his claws into his skull. Abe sprinted towards Ford, attempting to rescue him or drive away the feathered ball of fluff which was beginning to crush Ford’s head in between its talons, but tripped and landed facefirst on the long, trailing carpet which spanned the length of the room, which Aname had kicked into his path hurriedly. Two coins fell from his pocket, landing on opposite sides, and Abe sensed...disappointment?...coming from the object. Meanwhile, Snip, standing nearby, reacted instinctively; his instincts as a Hazekiller, honed from decades of training, had him snatch a nearby spear and ram it through Aname as soon as the owl began attacking Ford. Spinning, he pointed the spear at the white-feathered creature, but it had already released Ford’s corpse, and appeared to be hopping around with a paper in its beak. Snip snatched it out of the dull bird’s mouth, and read it to the quieted room. 

“I, Jastes Lekal, hereby allow these four men: Ford Prefect, Senn Conrad III, ‘Zane the Mad,’ and Doma, to access any aid within Luthadel which they should require in the process of handing me the city. If you see this letter and obey me, keep silent at my command. I am coming soon.”

Dropping the paper, he crumpled to the ground in front of Aname’s freshly killed corpse, in remorse and relief. The threat was over. Now to rebuild. 

---

Lumgol was lynched! She was a Elend’s Loyalist Tineye 2!

Furamirionind was lynched! She was a Lekal’s Subordinate Rioter 2! 

Lum (2): Fura, Snip

Fura (2): Coop, Lum

All of Jastes Lekal’s men have been driven out of the city, and with Zane and Vin neutralised, Elend’s Loyalists have won the day. 

My apologies for a slightly rushed aftermath writeup. Joe is busy working on something very large; meanwhile, I’m in need of sleep, and the dead doc is distracting me. (Not that I’m complaining, it’s fun. ) A more complete writeup, along with a general reflection on how the game went, will be coming within the next few days. Until then, a few special thanks, and the doc links: 

First, to @Alvron for IMing, as well as @Elbereth who helped me make a few calls on balance and was generally wonderful to discuss the game with until real life prevented her from checking in as much. Both were fun spectators, and you can find our discussion here. 

Second, to my co-GM @A Joe in the Bush. His help was invaluable with writeups, and though work and busy-ness also took him out of the picture later in the game, he continued to pitch in where he could. He deserves all the upvotes you can find to give him. More importantly, however, he served as the Gatekeeper of the Dead, Kelsier, and the largest of the four secrets in the game. His role was mainly to be able to pass on short messages from the dead, and to troll and make people paranoid. He accomplished both wonderfully. You may access his realm, the realm of the dead, here. (Said realm also describes the final two secrets, Alv’s Carpet and Kelsier, for those interested.)

Third, to the Mistborn. @_Stick_ and @Mailliw73 were both highly active and committed players, and though they were caught early, the silver-tongued speech of Maill and the ingenuity of Stick’s plans bought them a few extra turns. While they were ultimately unable to clinch victory, I thank them both for their dedication to the roles I gave them, and admire the guile they demonstrated in their use of actions, especially with Maill’s pet OreSeur. Here you may find their conversation. 

Fourth, to the Eliminators. As with the Mistborn, they were all active and driven, and made the most of their circumstances despite a few poor turns of fortune. Particularly, the work which @Steeldancer put into finding Zane, the stalling efforts of @Devotary of Spontaneity and @Rathmaskal which denied the Mistborn their victory, and the distancing and perseverance of @Furamirionind towards the end were a joy to watch unfold and brought the Subordinates to the cusp of victory. Their planning is every bit as good as the Mistborn’s, and I thank them for their consistent activity and dedication to the game, even when dead. Here is their doc. 

Finally, to the village, congratulations and thank you for playing. While I shan’t tag all of you, I ought to make note of @Araris Valerian for tolerating being the first person lynched (again...), @Elandera and @Lumgol for being active voices towards the end of the game after many of the more active villagers had died in the first few cycles, and @Cadmium Compounder and @Amanuensis for sticking with the game consistently despite IRL obligations cluttering up their time. To close off, I’d like to say that it’s my hope and pleasure as a GM to provide a fun game for all of you, and that it’s my wish that I followed through on that commitment here.  

Final Player List:

1. Mailliw73 as Laila, a noblewoman whose pretentiousness is rivaled only by her disdain for Elend Vin

2. Elandera as Era, an old Terriswoman too stubborn to evacuate a ruined city Village Rioter 1

3. Lumgol as Aname Plees, a skaa representative of Elend wanting to fight Lekal Village Tineye 2

4. Furamirionind as Ford Prefect, a hidden, delusional researcher and author Eliminator Rioter 2

6. Snipexe as Snip, a fabric cutter in the local quilt chain, Reap What You Sew The Retired Hazekiller

7. Araris Valerian as Hadrian Penrod, a versatile man with a versatile definition of mortality Village Soother 2

8. Xinoehp512 as Dedne, a depressed man working long hours at Reap What You Sew Village Smoker 1

9. Young Bard as Lethir, a man with self-confidence and an axe to grind Village Thug 1

10. Devotary of Spontaneity as Varuun, a Kandra given a second chance at accomplishing her goals Count Senn Conrad III

11. Arraenae as Needa Naime, a slightly oblivious girl who loves her mother The Librarian

12. Steeldancer as Zane the Mad, who likes singing about killing and death (normal?) Assasssin Smoker 1

13. Ark1002 as Abe, a skaa who knows his place within the established order of things Village Tineye 1

14. Rathmaskal as Doma, a recluse who spends her life making small wooden statues Eliminator Seeker 2; Spiked

15. Cadmium Compounder as Cadoxi, an armourer from House Venture fleeing Straff’s displeasure Village Thug 1

16. Hemalurgic Headshot as Makail, an unemployed skaa enjoying his free lifestyle Village Thug 2

17. STINK as Jumae II, a colourful and enigmatic character Village Rioter 2

18. _Stick_ as Astick, an old man with a wooden leg that secretly contains vials of metal Zane

19. Straw as Oramen Hausk, a minor noble reduced to begging in the aftermath of the Lord Ruler’s fall Village Coinshot 2

20. Adavantos as Ixiom Renaud, who believes that no supposition should be held as axiomatic Village Soother 1

21. Coop772 as Heer Kilyal II, a snowy owl struggling to escape extinction Village Thug 2

22. Randuir as De’Tess, a Kandra given a second opportunityVillage Smoker 2

[Lumgol]

THE CARPET WORKED!

THE GODS OF LUCK AND CHANCE WERE IN MY FAVOR!

Edited June 9, 2019 by Lumgol

[Araris Valerian]

This was a fun game to watch despite my early demise. The writeups were very well done, and player activity was pretty good as well. Many thanks to Fifth for GMing, Joe for trolling, and everyone else for having a good time!

[Furamirionind]

As per norm, I will be saving most of my thoughts until after I read the docs, however, I will start by saying what follows:

I would like to first of all thank Fifth and Joe for running/whatever-Joe's-player-GM-mix-thing-was this game. It was a lot of fun, and I think probably one of the better games I have played so far. I did make a couple mistakes in the late game, which Devotary and I discussed at the end of the dead doc.

I want to apologize and thank Araris. I apologize as I took issue with my reasoning to lynch you. I dont like lynching people for activity, and you were correct that the only reason you truly got lynched, was you were one of the only players to contribute actual content.  As the force behind your lynch, I appologize for pushing it.

I also thank you, as your noble sacrifice was, I believe, a big part in why people trusted me throughout the game. Even though you won this game with the village, I grant you the honorary title of "Lekal's Sympathizer".

Umm, you dont have to accept it, I just want you to know you were appreciated. : )

----------------------

I want to thank the rest of my team as well.

Devotary led the team through solid analysis. We had a couple back and forths in thread I believe, and she also helped me not out myself as an elim when I tried to unite the village against the MB, and helped me word my posts so that I wouldnt provoke a MB kill on myself.

Steel for his distancing and analysis. While I was originally going to redirect Stick/Maill to themself N2 instead of HH, Steel had to convince me to redirect her N3 as I wanted to target Maill instead.  Steel also did remarkable distancing from me, and allowed me, while suspiciously hedging on his lynch, to not look suspicious when he flipped.

Rath for his steadiness and calmness throughout the game, helping to anchor me to reality. Also with a lot of help with the future planning for the late game.

And now I was ninja'd by Araris, so I'll post it now. : )

Edit: 

@Cadmium Compounder, I also want you to know, I never told the elims your role. I dont break my promises : P

You can read what I said in the elim doc. xD

Edited June 10, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elandera]

Amazing game! Thanks Fifth for GMing and Joe for co-GMing. I really enjoyed the write-ups and the game mechanics.

First, great job to Lum for leading the village there at the end. Your scans were super helpful. And good use of the carpet!

To Maill, thanks again for your contributions to help the village win. They were invaluable.

I was going to say more, but my brain is failing at the moment. In all, good game to everyone!

[Furamirionind]

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

First, great job to Lum for leading the village there at the end. Your scans were super helpful. And good use of the carpet!

Hmph. I still disagree with most of Lum's analysis on me.

Ok, now that I have finished reading through the docs, I must say, as fun as this game was, it was quite demoralizing at times. All of you veterans I am sure have experienced a game (or many) where you feel you have a guaranteed win, and all of a sudden it slips from you. That's what I felt. I think I go through this in the doc, as it became my place to vent. But being the only elim, I would get an epiphany, and I would write it down, and I would think, "wow, maybe I'd give myself more than a 50% chance to win this game!", and then someone like Maill or Lum will post something, and I'll go back to being convinced i lost. The biggest thing about my playstyle I have learned recently, is I seem to be a very emotional player. And I struggle if there isnt another player to ground me to reality. In the championship that was Backpack, AG5 it was Magestar, LG50 it was Bard, LG49 was Fifth/MT, and this game it was Rath.

I went through so much work in PMs this game. so much. I focused primarily on finding the MB, as I felt that was the right thing to do, but I tried to keep an eye out for elim suspects too.  When I started catching onto the MB's trail N2 though (mostly by chance), I got a bit fixated on finding and proving it.

As disapointed as I was/am for not pulling off an elim win, after reading the docs though, I 100% claim a personal-moral victory. Not so much as a win-victory, but this is the first game I have ended, where I actually feel I have played pretty well.

I was 100% certain Maill was going to push for my lynch before he died, but from what I see in the MB doc, it looks like up until he died, his read of me was still inconclusive. I definitely had CadCom and Elandera trusting me while alive. And I think the only reason Lum went after me was because I went after her first.

And the best part.

What truly makes me feel accomploshed:

Is apperantly, the turn i died, i was given Rioter 1(?) Which may have been enough to tie for a win D9, or guarantee a win D10.

(You all have no idea how hard I worked to get that Rioter 1. Fifth and Snipexe know my PMs werent long and there wern't many of them, but they were very carefully crafted, as I knew I had a limited amount of times I could ask to get Rioter 1 without sounding suspicious. How many times could I ask for it without sounding suspicious? 0. How many times did I ask? 1. Hence why I had to be so careful. : )  )

--------------

Though I had yet to put it in the elim doc due to being without internet access, my plan was to target Coop after Lum.  I forgot about the action/kill-in-advance thing, and was going to probably push for that on him. If that didnt work, I intentionally left myself a trail of mislynch targets in my Lum analysis post. Next I think I had Ark, but HH and Ark were both decent targets.

Edit:

@Lumgol I was always planning on claiming to have redirected you N7, but I was debating still whether or not I should submit a kill or not. Whether or not I submitted a kill would have defined the game, as it changes who I can cast suspicion on in thread, who I will target with the elim kill etc.

When you publically asked me to redirect you to yourself, it was a no brainer that I would not kill anyone, as regardless who the elim is, if it wasnt one of us, it would basically guarantee 2 mislynches. xD

Edited June 9, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Steeldancer]

Alright.
MY LEGACY IS SECURE AND THE MISTBORN DIED HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
breathes sorry just had to get that out. It feels so storming good to be right. Especially when my analysis was such a rush job. And if you hadn't lynched me when you had, I would have killed Stick that very night. Which would have felt very good indeed. 
I will note, the vote thing that people got upset about, I didn't vote along with my team at all. I voted on whoever I wanted to vote on, and paid absolutely no attention to who my team mates were voting on. 
Plus, I probably would have acted more or less exactly the same as a villager during this game. The only thing that would have been different would have been the fact that I would have had a lot less information to work with. However, the key evidences would have remained the same: Stick was way too bland in her analysis regarding the SK in her PM with me, and Mailliw was ENTIRELY too eager to get me lynched (even to the point of not feeling bad about me leaving), and discounted Zane!Stick entirely. That along with his "I have no idea what to do with a SK" in the PMs was... pretty obvious. I just didn't care at the time because I was after Zane, not Vin. If I had successfully killed Stick, Vin would have been my next target, and Mailliw would have been at the very top of the list. So yeah. It feels good to be right. 
I did love messing around in the dead doc. I hardly ever said a true thing, and half the time I lied to Joe just to keep things interesting. And or totally freaking out about being right. 
Team, I'm sorry for being entirely unhelpful  I kind of just left chaos in my wake in this game. Which was purposeful and also super stressful. I spent a lot of time analyzing players to figure out who Zane was. And using Fura's redirects to try and figure out who the mistborn was. 
I might have more to say about SE or some sentimental stuff, but right now I just wanted to exult in being right and the mistborn not winning.