Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Elandera]

Just now, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

So, who is Zane? (Yes, I'm being boring by not RP) And @Elandera, @Furamirionind, why Stick? The writeup, though a bit harder to decipher because of its narration, implied that Stick was attacked by Zane. Unless Zane did what Steel is claiming Zane!HH did and attacked himself to lose suspicion.

Sorry Fura, but I think it's time your role was revealed (if it hasn't been already... I can't remember). Fura is a Rioter 2. We agreed last night that she would Riot Stick's action back onto Stick. 

Stick has claimed to be Seeker 1, which would not give her a reason to survive a night kill. Unless someone decided to protect her, which I don't see likely considering she was high up in Zane suspects, then she was lying about being Seeker 1.

We also believe that because a vote was missing from Rath, they soothed away a vote in an attempt to make Rath look more suspicious. That would mean, however, that Zane!Stick would have to choose between protection and the kill, since they can only take 2 actions every cycle and one was apparently used in soothing a vote off Rath.

Regarding the write-up, those are mostly done by Joe (who's doing an amazing job, by the way). I don't think he has access to the same information Fifth would in regards to what scheming happens in PMs, so he wouldn't necessarily have known Stick was rioted to attack herself. He may know Stick was Zane, but not knowing how or why Stick was attacked, he probably kept it vague.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

7 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Sorry Fura, but I think it's time your role was revealed (if it hasn't been already... I can't remember). Fura is a Rioter 2. We agreed last night that she would Riot Stick's action back onto Stick. 

Stick has claimed to be Seeker 1, which would not give her a reason to survive a night kill. Unless someone decided to protect her, which I don't see likely considering she was high up in Zane suspects, then she was lying about being Seeker 1.

We also believe that because a vote was missing from Rath, they soothed away a vote in an attempt to make Rath look more suspicious. That would mean, however, that Zane!Stick would have to choose between protection and the kill, since they can only take 2 actions every cycle and one was apparently used in soothing a vote off Rath.

Regarding the write-up, those are mostly done by Joe (who's doing an amazing job, by the way). I don't think he has access to the same information Fifth would in regards to what scheming happens in PMs, so he wouldn't necessarily have known Stick was rioted to attack herself. He may know Stick was Zane, but not knowing how or why Stick was attacked, he probably kept it vague.

Ah, that makes sense. Then I will join you, Stick.

[Rathmaskal]

Doma had never been bothered by the mists.  The mists seemed to accept her.  No, not like they accepted the Mistborn, more that the mists just seemed to realize that Doma was there and the mists were there.  The very basest definition of acceptance.  Most nights, Doma would be sitting by her front window, carving.  It didn't matter what she carved, and most of the time it was just scraps of wood, it just mattered that she was carving.  Ever since she'd had the accident, carving was all that gave her joy.  Occasionally she'd sell some, just to have enough money to buy food.  And sometimes she'd give one to an orphan on the street.

She'd been up all night working on her current carving.  She looked at it closely and realized it was based on the man she'd seen jumping through the city at the start of the night.  Well, she wasn't going to finish it this morning.  At this point, she typically didn't have quite the attention to detail she did at the start of the night.  She started heading to bed, following the ritual she took every morning.  Put her newest work on her stool to start on again once she awoke, walk to the hidden compartment she had in the floor where she stored her most treasured items.  Pull out the ivory statue her grandmother had given to her many years ago.  It had been in her family for generations upon generations and it influenced every one of her works.  She'd be carving a small figure of an orphan boy, and when she was finished, there would be an owl stitched to the back of his shirt.  She'd be carving a carriage rolling down the lane and it would have owls carved into the sides.  It gave her the calm to fall asleep every morning and the drive to continue every night, watching for the Mist Spirit to return to finish the job it had started many years ago, the drive to finally, avenge the death of her husband and child at the hands of the Mist Spirit.  How was it that she could be so at peace with the mists, yet the spirit had wronged her so?

She reached into the box to grab the statue and felt her heart fall.  The statue was gone?!  no.  No.  NO!!!!!!  The spirit must have found another way into her home.  Finding a way behind her as she watched the door.  Stealing the statue to taunt her.  She was frantic.  She grabbed the carving she had been working on that night and threw it across the room, breaking a number of her recently completed works she had stacked on a shelf.  This wasn't over.  The Mist Spirit had to die.  She had to get the owl back!  But how?!

~~

Stick.  Good to know that the tunnel on me has not been entirely honest.

A bit of analysis besides that.

So, the Straw non-kill is interesting.  I'm sure most everyone has these possibilities in mind, but I figured I'd recap in case I, or anyone else, is missing anything:

• Straw is village Coinshot 2 and is safe for pretty much the rest of the game with the assassin dead.
• Straw is village Thug 2 and is now vulnerable.
• Straw is either Conrad or another elim trying to get a clear from the night kill.
• Straw was protected by someone with Thug 1

Honestly, I'd say that these are in order from most-likely to least-likely.  So, and I always hate to admit this, I may have been wrong about Straw.

The comment from Steel is interesting.  So, Steel may have said that or not, since the comment is actually from Joe, right?  Joe seems to be working for the village aside from working with Vin.  So why would he post something coming from Steel (the one eliminator we've actually lynched)?  Either it's just for fun, it's not really from Steel, Steel was somehow able to take over Joe's ability (highly unlikely, but that would be interesting), there's something else going on in the dead doc that's influencing what's posted, Joe forgot that Steel was the one 100% confirmed elim, Joe kind of agrees with it, or something else I'm not thinking of.  Regardless, I'm slightly confused by this.

The HH comment (the comment by Steel about needing to kill HH...just realized that could have been mildly ambiguous) is almost definitely a ruse of sorts since I think, as long as Fura and Elandera aren't lying, Stick is almost definitely Zane.  I'm of a mind to trust them at this point.  I think those two and Lum are about as close to confirmed villagers as we have right now.

I know we have a lot of time remaining in this cycle, but it seems likely we'll have a strong lynch on Stick today.  Does anyone have a suggestion for who Lum should be voting on to get some more information out there?  I'm willing to throw my name in the hat.

[Mailliw73]

Look. Zane has one life. If you leave him alone, we kill an elim tonight(they kill Zane or I in exchange), lynch one today, then you lynch me tomorrow, and it’s 6v1 the next day. Or keep me alive till that night and let them kill me. 

Or, Zane is killed today and the elims have 3 people still on their team against your 7(once the night is over). Give it one or two turns, factor in inactives, and the elims have enough vote power to win. 

It’s up to you. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Mailliw73

[Furamirionind]

7 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Look. Zane has one life. If you leave him alone, we kill an elim tonight(they kill Zane or I in exchange), lynch one today, then you lynch me tomorrow, and it’s 6v1 the next day. Or keep me alive till that night and let them kill me. 

Or, Zane is killed today and the elims have 3 people still on their team against your 7(once the night is over). Give it one or two turns, factor in inactives, and the elims have enough vote power to win. 

It’s up to you. 

Hmm. My question is why are you suggesting this? You know full well we cant both win... so you seem to think that you can win if given 1 more cycle?

If the MB actually do know who the elims are, I would start to suspect there are only 2 left alive, as that is the only way I could see the MB winning before we kill Zane. If that is the case, it is imperative we kill Zane this turn.

Right now I count 14 players. If we assume 3 elims:

D5: 9-2-3

N5: 9-1-3

D6: 8-1-3

...that's 8 to 3. Pretty good all things considered.

Then let's say we lynch Maill for some reason:

D6: 8-1-3

N7: 8-0-3 (lynched Maill)

D8: 7-0-3

N6: 6-0-3 (myslynch)

D7: 5-0-3 (we should have 100% found an elim by this point at the latest)

N7: 5-0-2

D8: 4-0-2

I mean, we have 1.5 myslynches. (0.5 because that turned the game into luck). And this is worst case scenarios.

[Stick.]

Slumped against the wall surrounding Keep Hastings, Astick fumbled with his detached wooden leg until he found the hidden compartment and opened it. Ah, still there. He let out a sigh of relief and proceeded to hastily fix the leg into place. That ill-mannered young man had just pushed him off a Keep, but that was the least of Astick’s worries....Astick was old. Very old. Yet, he could have sworn he had heard an eerie voice tell him to stop dying immediately and kill some guy called Makail.

As Astick walked back to the inn to let the others know about his strange encounter, he felt a peculiar presence about and stopped in place, eyes scanning the mists surrounding him. There. Astick spotted a small mist spirit not 15 feet away speeding towards him. What? Confused, Astick started limping away in the opposite direction as fast as he could, trying to avoid the mist spirit. He barely covered 5 feet before getting knocked over. He tried getting himself up again almost immediately but couldn’t. Something was wrong.

Ah, his leg had come off as he tripped over a rock or something - it was now lying on the ground not far from him. And the mist spirit seemed to have disappeared. What did it want with Astick, anyway?

Reaching over to his wooden leg, Astick noticed the compartment wide open. No. NONONONONO. His suspicions were confirmed upon looking in to find his metal vials missing. Why...

-----------------------------------

The remainder of the walk was doleful for Astick. Eventually, he came to a slow stop. As he stood alone, the mist started swirling around him and Astick’s despair changed into something else. Unquenchable rage taking over his body, he changed course. This time, he wasn’t limping.

------------------------------------

Come on guys, y u gotta do dis

The village has a much better chance of winning if you leave me alone today and get an elim instead

Let's lay it out:

D5: 3-2-8    We lynch an elim today, putting us at:

N5: 2-2-8    Here I will probably be offed by the elims, but will kill 1 elim as I die

D6: 1-1-8    See? Y'all would be 8 against 2

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by _Stick_
spelling

[Furamirionind]

20 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Come on guys, y u gotta do dis

The village has a much better chance of winning if you leave me alone today and get an elim instead

Let's lay it out:

D5: 3-2-8    We lynch an elim today, putting us at:

N5: 2-2-8    Here I will probably be offed by the elims, but will kill 1 elim as I die

D6: 1-1-8    See? Y'all would be 8 against 2

If there are only 3 elims to start the game, you win tonight. Regardless if the elims kill you or not.

Edit: I assume that is why you want to stay alive so bad?

Edited May 29, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Stick.]

 

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If there are only 3 elims to start the game, you win tonight. Regardless if the elims kill you or not.

Edit: I assume that is why you want to stay alive so bad?

Now wouldn’t that be convenient  

But no. I just wanna help the village at this point :} Also Joe. He wins if the village wins with Vin dying after I do, as per a write up from some cycle.

[Straw]

Stick seems to be the obvious lynch. I'm not sure if I should say anything about avoiding the kill, other than the fact that I am not one of the eliminators.

[Elandera]

@Lumgol, if you aren't sure of a target, G (counting backward from the end of my last PM, including all letters) would give us a good place to start next round.

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Now wouldn’t that be convenient  

But no. I just wanna help the village at this point :} Also Joe. He wins if the village wins with Vin dying after I do, as per a write up from some cycle.

You could always help through Vin by sharing who you know to be elims during the night turn. 

The danger in keeping you alive is what Fura said. We don't know how many elims there are for sure.

And what if you're wrong and we lynched a villager? Or you kill one tonight? Or both? Then we are so much worse off.

Killing you now means we lose people at a slower pace, and hopefully not so many villagers.

[Mailliw73]

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Hmm. My question is why are you suggesting this? You know full well we cant both win... so you seem to think that you can win if given 1 more cycle?

If the MB actually do know who the elims are, I would start to suspect there are only 2 left alive, as that is the only way I could see the MB winning before we kill Zane. If that is the case, it is imperative we kill Zane this turn.

Right now I count 14 players. If we assume 3 elims:

D5: 9-2-3

N5: 9-1-3

D6: 8-1-3

...that's 8 to 3. Pretty good all things considered.

Then let's say we lynch Maill for some reason:

D6: 8-1-3

N7: 8-0-3 (lynched Maill)

D8: 7-0-3

N6: 6-0-3 (myslynch)

D7: 5-0-3 (we should have 100% found an elim by this point at the latest)

N7: 5-0-2

D8: 4-0-2

I mean, we have 1.5 myslynches. (0.5 because that turned the game into luck). And this is worst case scenarios.

Like Stick said. I’ve been hunting the elims all game and we almost had the game won, but for a couple errors on our part. So at this stage, I would rather the village win and Kelsier(since I love Kell) than the infiltrators. Am I hoping that there’s some way we could still win? Of course. Do I actually expect that to happen? No way. 

But, if you reject my help, I’m willing to go full blown elim too.  

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

7 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Like Stick said. I’ve been hunting the elims all game and we almost had the game won, but for a couple errors on our part. So at this stage, I would rather the village win and Kelsier(since I love Kell) than the infiltrators. Am I hoping that there’s some way we could still win? Of course. Do I actually expect that to happen? No way. 

But, if you reject my help, I’m willing to go full blown elim too.  

Well, who will we lynch instead? You still haven't told us who you would have us lynch instead of Stick.

[Mailliw73]

37 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Well, who will we lynch instead? You still haven't told us who you would have us lynch instead of Stick.

I can’t think this is a hard question... look to yesterday for a hint. 

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

I can’t think this is a hard question... look to yesterday for a hint. 

So Devotary. What about the strange message from Joe/Steel suggesting she's not Conrad? 

Do you have any additional proof beyond a Seeker scan?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I guess Steel was right about Stick being Zane back during D3. Perhaps Steel could have assassinated Stick had he survived that lynch.

Not including Kelsier, we've got 13 living players. That makes things a little worse than Fura's projections, decreasing the village population by one compared to their three remaining elim model. We should still have some protection roles out there that will reduce fatalities. I haven't seen a claim from a Lurcher 2 or a Coinshot 2, but there may be villagers out there with those roles. I doubt HH, Rath, and Straw are all Thug 2s at any rate. Not even by the Hazekiller's influence, as that would mean the game began with three Thug 1s other than Vin, with is equally improbable. Unless Vin was the one to kill Zane last night by accidental rebound of Thug 1, Maill could still have drawn that metal this cycle. 

[Elandera]

@Mailliw73, I really want to trust you. If you're telling the truth, and we actually lynch and then kill an elim, the village would be in such a better position to finish the final elim.

My concern, however, is the number of elims. Even if I feel I can trust you to keep your word to help the village (which at this point I think is plausible), there's also the chance we'd be passing the game over to you if we're wrong about 3 remaining elims.

This may be the dumbest move I've ever made... even dumber than getting myself lynched on purpose... but Stick. 

Please give me more reason to keep my vote off Stick.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Elandera

[Lumgol]

I still think it's better to get rid of the Mistborn first. Stick. You're the top Zane candidate for me at this point.

[Amanuensis]

I'm here, for the record. It seems the game is more-or-less wrapped up. Not any significant solving for me to do. So on that note, good job team! At the very least I'll cast a vote every day going forward. I'm a bit torn on getting rid of inZane!Stick now. She's been very nice in our PM's despite her alignment, so if she wants to last one more cycle, I don't really see a reason not to let her? Plus if she could remove another eliminator by tomorrow's lynch that would honestly be great.

So Devotary then, or? @Mailliw73 @_Stick_?

EDIT

• (1) Snipexe: Mailliw73,
• (4) _Stick_: Furamirionind, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Straw, Lumgol, 
• (1) Devotary of Spontaneity: Adavantos, 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Adavantos

[Mailliw73]

8 hours ago, Elandera said:

@Mailliw73, I really want to trust you. If you're telling the truth, and we actually lynch and then kill an elim, the village would be in such a better position to finish the final elim.

My concern, however, is the number of elims. Even if I feel I can trust you to keep your word to help the village (which at this point I think is plausible), there's also the chance we'd be passing the game over to you if we're wrong about 3 remaining elims.

This may be the dumbest move I've ever made... even dumber than getting myself lynched on purpose... but Stick. 

Please give me more reason to keep my vote off Stick.

More reason? I think that’s the best reason there is. I don’t know what else we can do. 

Snipe. Devotary. 

8 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I still think it's better to get rid of the Mistborn first. Stick. You're the top Zane candidate for me at this point.

There’s literally no reason for you to vote for Stick. You should vote for Devotary to scan if she’s Conrad if Stick is being lynched. If we lynch Devotary, then you can scan whoever. 

[Elandera]

Ugh. I'm still struggling with this. But Devotary. 

[Amanuensis]

• (4) _Stick_: Furamirionind, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Straw, Lumgol, 
• (3) Devotary of Spontaneity: Adavantos, Mailliw73, Elandera,

@Mailliw73 are there any Smokers I need to be aware of?

Edited May 30, 2019 by Adavantos

[Mailliw73]

@Adavantos we don’t know every role, but as far as we do know, no you don’t need to. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

We've got what seems to be four options, @Adavantos, @Elandera

1. I am one of two remaining elims, and the Mistborn know who my partner is. Obviously, this means the Mistborn win tonight if you lynch me. However, it also means that Stick or Maill could just tell you who the last elim is and you win after lynching Stick, then me, then Maill, then my partner. 
2. I am one of three remaining elims, and the Mistborn know who my two partners are. Here, if the Mistborn tell you who those two are, you win regardless of what order you lynch Stick and I.
3. I am one of two remaining elims, but the Mistborn have no idea who the other is and are only saying so in an attempt to prevent Stick from being lynched. You lynch me, the Mistborn kill a villager, then you lynch Stick and Maill and are slightly worse off in your hunt for the final two elims.
4. I am one of three remaining elims, and the Mistborn have no idea who my two partners are. You lynch me, the Mistborn kill a villager, you lynch Stick and Maill, and you end up hunting down the final two elims with one fewer villager than if you'd lynched Stick first.

Additionally, if Stick is lynched first, we will kill Maill so you don't have to waste a lynch on him. We can't risk attacking a Mistborn if I get lynched because even if the Mistborn have no idea who the elims are, they could get lucky with Thug 1.

[Rathmaskal]

5 hours ago, Adavantos said:

I'm here, for the record. It seems the game is more-or-less wrapped up. Not any significant solving for me to do. So on that note, good job team! At the very least I'll cast a vote every day going forward. I'm a bit torn on getting rid of inZane!Stick now. She's been very nice in our PM's despite her alignment, so if she wants to last one more cycle, I don't really see a reason not to let her? Plus if she could remove another eliminator by tomorrow's lynch that would honestly be great.

So Devotary then, or? @Mailliw73 @_Stick_?

EDIT

• (1) Snipexe: Mailliw73,
• (4) _Stick_: Furamirionind, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Straw, Lumgol, 
• (1) Devotary of Spontaneity: Adavantos, 

Your vote count skipped mine on Stick...unless you know something about someone already planning on doing something to my vote

Mildly related, if there's a solid vote on Stick, Lumgol definitely should move your vote elsewhere.  If it's a deciding vote, obviously leave it.  But Devotary has been thrown out as an option for your read, and I'm throwing my name out there again, especially since my role was brought into question recently.  (Actually, thinking about it, of the three, I'm the only one who has clearly demonstrated Thug 2...)

So, current vote count:

• Snipe (0) - Maill
• Stick (5/6) - Fura, Elandera, HH, Rath, Straw, Lum
• Devotary (2/3) - Adavantos, Maill, Elandera

Not sure where to put @Elandera's vote since I'm not sure if Fifth is requiring a recant to count a new vote.

I'm assuming we can count on Stick voting on Devotary, so that puts it at 5/6 to 3/4...so, likely 5-4 at this point.  (Assuming either Elandera officially recants the Stick vote or Fifth just allows it)

So, the main thing I'm not getting out of this.  Stick and Maill claim to be able to kill an elim tonight.  To do that there would need to be a couple things happening.

1. Zane (Stick) has to survive - this is definitely possible, but right now is kind of a toss up and may require Zane to use Soother 1.  (more on this later)
2. Zane and Vin need to know who the elims are.  Based on the kills Zane has submitted so far, I'm not so sure this is the case.
   1. Zane doesn't have to use Soother 1 - Zane needs to either hope there are 3 elims and picks the correct one to kill...or picks the correct one to be Conrad to use Soother 2 on and then assassinate one of the others...  If there are 2 elims, Zane can't have used Soother 1 during the day to make this happen.
   2. SO, if Zane does have to use Soother 1, it's very unlikely Zane is able to get an elim kill off.  There would need to be 3 elims, Zane knows all three, and hits the ⅓ roll of getting the kill off.

With that, I think it's far more useful for them to just provide the information they have right now.  By waiting as long as they have to provide this information, they aren’t allowing us to properly digest and vet the information, which makes it less likely to affect my vote.  I'm unsure whether this is a last grasp on trying to stay in the game and potentially win, this is basically knowing that they've lost and trying to decide whether they want to help village or elims more, or they don't know and are just posturing (actually not necessarily different from the first option)

*Ninja Devotary*...well then...if there was any beating around the bush with the earlier post, I'd say that's an admission of guilt.  Might have to rethink a bit of this, but I've spent SOO long typing it up already. 

[Mailliw73]

Devotary, you may want to clarify 3 and 4 because the wording in them is the same. I think 3 is supposed to say the last elim and not the last two. 

Rath, I’ve admitted that I hope we can pull out some magical win, but I doubt it. We’re just using our knowledge as bargaining chips to stay in the game as long as we can. I’m much more okay with a village win than an elim one.