Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Furamirionind]

16 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Elandera's right - I only know they burned iron. That didn't automatically tell me their role so I didn't try to get them lynched. But at this point in the game it seems more likely than not that they are Conrad

This I find incredibly suspicious, but I cant say why because I cant trust the players online right now to do the right thing lol.

[Elandera]

Hmm. Devotary and Fura make good points. However, there still is the matter that a Seeker scan would only show the metal. @_Stick_, did you reach out to any tineyes (such as Lum) to see if you could confirm the scan?

I feel that might have been the course a villager would take, especially since Lum has been considered village by most for a while.

[Straw]

9 hours ago, ApatheticTeenager said:

Good day everyone.

Sorry about my inactivity.

I'm gonna go Hemalurgic Headshot, gut read.

Gut reads might be fine at the start of the game, but we have a good amount of posts available to us. Would you mind showing us some suspicious things he's done? In addition, do you suspect him of being an eliminator or one of the Mistborn?

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

11 hours ago, ApatheticTeenager said:

Good day everyone.

Sorry about my inactivity.

I'm gonna go Hemalurgic Headshot, gut read.

Um, what? Devotary did question how cleared I might actually be by the MB attack, because Coinshots, Lurcher, etc. are other possible ways of surviving a kill. I am Thug 2 though, but if anyone somehow believes that they are the reason I survived, not my masterful creation, please step forward.

And also, who is ApatheticTeenager? This mid-game user change is throwing me off.

[Furamirionind]

13 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Um, what? Devotary did question how cleared I might actually be by the MB attack, because Coinshots, Lurcher, etc. are other possible ways of surviving a kill. I am Thug 2 though, but if anyone somehow believes that they are the reason I survived, not my masterful creation, please step forward.

And also, who is ApatheticTeenager? This mid-game user change is throwing me off.

I believe you. You are almost certainly village.

Teenager is Ark

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I believe you. You are almost certainly village.

Teenager is Ark

Oh, Ark! I missed that.

[Mailliw73]

3 hours ago, Straw said:

Gut reads might be fine at the start of the game, but we have a good amount of posts available to us. Would you mind showing us some suspicious things he's done? In addition, do you suspect him of being an eliminator or one of the Mistborn?

So, what are your reads then, Straw?

10 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

D3:lynch elim

D4: lynch conrad

N4: MB kill

D5: lynch MB

N5: MB kill

The game ends night 5 with good analysis by the MB and a bad lynch on conrad today.

How has your PM gone with them? Have you been focusing as hard on elims as you have in thread? I assume so, as they avoided all my questions about their opinions on the MB. I find that suspicious in itself, and have just kept that to myself. Because I was waiting for role analysis. The thing that will actually catch the MB.

Ok Maill. You asked me what I learned from the championships, and how that would affect my play here. I sort of avoided the question as I didnt know. Here is my definitive answer:

Ninjad by Devotary, and just realized, @Elandera a villager should be 100% honest about who they think is Senn. You dont want to lynch that person until Zane is dead. So it is important to share that. A Mistborn shares it when? When they are up for the lynch.

Stick only shared it after I voted on her.

Ninja'd by stick. Posting this before I read her post.

Okay, that’s fair enough. I didn’t calculate how long it would take them to win after Conrad’s death. I was thinking that halfway would be a good point to make sure neither team had an advantage over us. 

I’m not sure what this means. You switch between you and they and I’m confused. I haven’t really talked with Stick much in PMs, if that’s what you’re asking. 

Edit: Reading through most of Stick's earlier posts, the thing that sticks out to me most is a sort of...nonchalance(?) about the elims. It starts to get more serious at the end of D2 with the Rae lynch, but there's this kind of apathy that I see. I don't really know what I think about it. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mailliw73

[Stick.]

10 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Stick only shared it after I voted on her.

You asked me to  I dropped a hint in the post before that bc I needed to give some evidence for my role claim and I knew my N3 action wouldn’t cut it.

And I never said we should lynch Conrad now. 

10 hours ago, Elandera said:

. @_Stick_, did you reach out to any tineyes (such as Lum) to see if you could confirm the scan?

Nope. As I said, I scanned the player N2, and at that stage it wasn’t really that suspicious to me. I told a couple of people in PMs about it to see if I get a reaction (was hoping maybe if I got it to the Mistborn they’d bring it to the thread to try to get them lynched, so that’d be two birds with one stone). Nothing happened though and I just kinda didn’t think about that scan after that. But now, with so many of us dead/cleared, it’s easy to narrow down the possibilities and I’m near certain of that player being Conrad, hence me offering to discuss it in PMs next turn with Fura. 

Edit: woah, I didn’t realise there was a third page in the thread 

Quote

 I haven’t really talked with Stick much in PMs, if that’s what you’re asking.

This is true 

Edited May 27, 2019 by _Stick_

[Lumgol]

@Elandera, using PM code, all letters (not just unique ones), in our most recent PM:

Do you think I should vote Y or B? I was planning on sticking with Y but now it seems like B might make more sense?

[Elandera]

We should probably start solidifying the lynch, considering we've got 6-7 hours left. The top candidates of discussion seem to be Rath and Stick. I'll remove my vote from Devotary, since I haven't much to go on other than her being a possible MB based on roleclaims and that she's remained mostly out of suspicion. I'll need to do some more analysis before I'd be willing to risk a hammer for my stubbornness.

Rath has been a lynch candidate for a while, and been able to avoid it. However, most of the reasoning to lynch Rath started because he was a possible elim Tineye, which resulted in Bard's death. The turn we lynched Steel, Steel seemed determined on a Rath lynch to start the cycle, and only removed it when it appeared Steel was the top candidate. After that, Steel started to point all of the fingers at Stick. That suggests to me that Rath was going to be a convenient mislynch, otherwise he might have kept his vote on Rath for distancing purposes.

With the the information we've gained about Stick this turn from Fura, someone I trust relatively well, I'd be willing to venture Stick might be a possible elim.\

Stick

Vote Count:

Rath (2) - Maill, HH
HH (1) - Ark
Stick (2) - Fura, Elandera

Ninja'd by @Lumgol, I'd still say Y, but that might change.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

We should probably start solidifying the lynch, considering we've got 6-7 hours left. The top candidates of discussion seem to be Rath and Stick. I'll remove my vote from Devotary, since I haven't much to go on other than her being a possible MB based on roleclaims and that she's remained mostly out of suspicion. I'll need to do some more analysis before I'd be willing to risk a hammer for my stubbornness.

Rath has been a lynch candidate for a while, and been able to avoid it. However, most of the reasoning to lynch Rath started because he was a possible elim Tineye, which resulted in Bard's death. The turn we lynched Steel, Steel seemed determined on a Rath lynch to start the cycle, and only removed it when it appeared Steel was the top candidate. After that, Steel started to point all of the fingers at Stick. That suggests to me that Rath was going to be a convenient mislynch, otherwise he might have kept his vote on Rath for distancing purposes.

With the the information we've gained about Stick this turn from Fura, someone I trust relatively well, I'd be willing to venture Stick might be a possible elim.\

Stick

Vote Count:

Rath (2) - Maill, HH
HH (1) - Ark
Stick (2) - Fura, Elandera

Ninja'd by @Lumgol, I'd still say Y, but that might change.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are saying that Rath is likely not an Elim because Steel was pressing for his lynch early on, but Stick is because Steel switched his vote later. Are you trying to propose that Steel voted on Stick in an attempt to soft clear her? Steel had expressed some suspicions of Stick for a while, so I wouldn't be so sure about Stick's Elim-ness.

Also, it looks like because Bard died at the hands of Zane that the Tineye in my hypothesis was Vin rolling Tineye. This would make Rath Mistborn, and a legitimate target for Steel's vote. I need to look at the accumulated evidence against Stick before I move my vote. 

[Elandera]

15 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you are saying that Rath is likely not an Elim because Steel was pressing for his lynch early on, but Stick is because Steel switched his vote later. Are you trying to propose that Steel voted on Stick in an attempt to soft clear her? Steel had expressed some suspicions of Stick for a while, so I wouldn't be so sure about Stick's Elim-ness.

Also, it looks like because Bard died at the hands of Zane that the Tineye in my hypothesis was Vin rolling Tineye. This would make Rath Mistborn, and a legitimate target for Steel's vote. I need to look at the accumulated evidence against Stick before I move my vote. 

I am suggesting that Stick might be Mistborn, based on Steel's vote. I definitely don't think Stick is elim at this point. 

I'd rather lynch a possible MB over a possible Mistborn.

As for the Rath/Bard thing, you're right. I was skimming some older turns and completely misread this post:

For some reason, my brain translated the middle bits to "Elims killed Bard." 

Since my argument is based on flawed understanding, the Rath lunch now makes a lot more sense. 

Stick Rath

[Mailliw73]

Solidifying the lynch is great and all, but it does give the elims and Mistborn a convenient place to put their votes under the excuse of “avoiding a hammer”. For example, a 4, 5, and 8 vote lead is excessive. We learn much less when the votes go that way. A leader of the last-minute-vote-change-bandwagon thing is Devotary, who has been the last vote on every single lynch except Araris’ and only because Bard voted just after. I’ve rarely heard any of Devotary's suspicions, in PMs or thread(feel free to correct me if I’m wrong). And of course, they’ve slid under the radar. The last point isn’t condemning, but the other two have kept bothering me. I feel like Devotary has access to a kill, either Zane’s or the elims’ because she doesn’t seem to be very invested in any lynch. 

You know who else has been a last minute vote changer? Rath. He’s been right before Devotary on both of the past two lynches. The D1 lynch is his only exception, where he voted on Bard. The only suspicion I remember him sharing is his on Straw, which he seems to have stopped pushing for no reason. 

The only other consistent last minute voter is Fura. I trust him more because of everything else he’s done in this game. His first day’s vote was also the first on the train against Araris, nowhere near the end. He’s included for comprehensiveness. 

Due to these thoughts, I was about to switch my vote to Devotary since I think she’s likelier to be a MB and Rath is more likely to be an elim, but then Elandera ninjad me and voted for Rath...

[Elandera]

32 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Due to these thoughts, I was about to switch my vote to Devotary since I think she’s likelier to be a MB and Rath is more likely to be an elim, but then Elandera ninjad me and voted for Rath...

I would be okay with switching back to Devotary, as my gut still tells me something is wrong. It just didn't seem that lynch was gaining any steam, and the votes are too spread out and small. If we can get a few people to agree, I'll switch back.

Lynching Rath finally might give us more answers about former cycle's votes.

[Mailliw73]

12 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I would be okay with switching back to Devotary, as my gut still tells me something is wrong. It just didn't seem that lynch was gaining any steam, and the votes are too spread out and small. If we can get a few people to agree, I'll switch back.

Lynching Rath finally might give us more answers about former cycle's votes.

I think devotary is more likely to be a Mistborn than Rath for sure, and Fura’s numbers seem to be right and we need to find one of those today. @Hemalurgic Headshot @Ark1002 @Straw @Snipexe @Adavantos @Coop772 What are your thoughts? Would you participate in a Devotary lynch?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

52 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Solidifying the lynch is great and all, but it does give the elims and Mistborn a convenient place to put their votes under the excuse of “avoiding a hammer”. For example, a 4, 5, and 8 vote lead is excessive. We learn much less when the votes go that way. A leader of the last-minute-vote-change-bandwagon thing is Devotary, who has been the last vote on every single lynch except Araris’ and only because Bard voted just after. I’ve rarely heard any of Devotary's suspicions, in PMs or thread(feel free to correct me if I’m wrong). And of course, they’ve slid under the radar. The last point isn’t condemning, but the other two have kept bothering me. I feel like Devotary has access to a kill, either Zane’s or the elims’ because she doesn’t seem to be very invested in any lynch. 

You know who else has been a last minute vote changer? Rath. He’s been right before Devotary on both of the past two lynches. The D1 lynch is his only exception, where he voted on Bard. The only suspicion I remember him sharing is his on Straw, which he seems to have stopped pushing for no reason. 

The only other consistent last minute voter is Fura. I trust him more because of everything else he’s done in this game. His first day’s vote was also the first on the train against Araris, nowhere near the end. He’s included for comprehensiveness. 

Due to these thoughts, I was about to switch my vote to Devotary since I think she’s likelier to be a MB and Rath is more likely to be an elim, but then Elandera ninjad me and voted for Rath...

I always vote late in the cycle, regardless of alignment. I prefer to gather information during the cycle and then only act on my suspicions at the end. Not a great strategy for this particular game, I admit. I've sent you my not-suspicions in PM, but for the first two cycles I was focused on those who seemed overly enthusiastic about going after either the Mistborn or the elims. That didn't work out at the time, and for the past couple of cycles we've had more concrete evidence.

If Rath is an elim, then Bard couldn't have been killed for his role, as there would be no more candidates for a Vin!Tineye.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

I am suggesting that Stick might be Mistborn, based on Steel's vote. I definitely don't think Stick is elim at this point. 

I'd rather lynch a possible MB over a possible Mistborn.

As for the Rath/Bard thing, you're right. I was skimming some older turns and completely misread this post:

I'm kind of confused by this. You believe that Stick is more likely to be a Mistborn than an elim, which makes sense. Are you then saying that you would rather vote for a Mistborn than an elim, or the other way around? Stick is a potential Mistborn because she was targeted by a Smoker 2, likely Zane. Rath is a potential Mistborn because he, as Vin, would have had a 1/6 chance to learn Bard's role and kill him for it. Elandera, when you voted for Bard back during cycle 1, did you think he was an elim? Any Seeker 2s out there who may have scanned CadCom, can you confirm whether or not he was targeted with Bronze? If we could confirm Stick's N3 action, that would clear her of being Zane as Zane couldn't have used Seeker 1, Smoker 2, and Coinshot 1 in the same night.

If there are any Smoker 1s left that aren't Vin, make sure you protect Lum today. No sense in giving Zane the chance to block her scan.

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm kind of confused by this. You believe that Stick is more likely to be a Mistborn than an elim, which makes sense. Are you then saying that you would rather vote for a Mistborn than an elim, or the other way around? Stick is a potential Mistborn because she was targeted by a Smoker 2, likely Zane. Rath is a potential Mistborn because he, as Vin, would have had a 1/6 chance to learn Bard's role and kill him for it. Elandera, when you voted for Bard back during cycle 1, did you think he was an elim?

Yes, I believe either Rath or Stick, or even you, could be MB. I'm at the point I would rather lynch an MB than an elim. Especially if we can get Zane.

When I voted Bard, I thought he might be either elim or MB, for at that cycle, I didn't much care which we would hit.

EDIT: I'm really concerned because right now, we have a really tight lynch, with Rath in the lead with only 3. We really need to get some more people on and voting.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Elandera

[Stick.]

I’ve been meaning to vote on Rath for like three cycles and with the decent chance of them flipping MB, that’s where I’m adding my vote.

[Mailliw73]

Devotary, the only thing you’ve said in our PM is that a Elandera is cleared and you think Coop is probably village. 

Rath. Devotary. It makes more sense to me. I’ll switch back to Rath if we still need a leading lynch, but otherwise, Devotary is my highest suspicion and I want to stick with it. 

@Elandera @_Stick_ @Hemalurgic Headshot Just a heads up that I’ve changed my vote. 

[Elandera]

I've changed my vote so much this turn. It's ridiculous. But I'm going to go with my gut on this one.

Rath Devotary

[Snipexe]

devotary (securing the lynch that I agree with)

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I don't want to do this. For one, it would finally lay my crazy hypothesis to rest. However, we can't have a contested vote like this. Maill, I'm trusting you. If Devotary turns up village, I'm going to be pretty skeptical. Rath Devotary.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

What a fascinating vote turnout, including a vote from Snipexe who hasn't cast a single vote this game. ,@Mailliw73, I also said that I'm pretty sure all or almost all of the people Steel listed as potential Mistborn weren't elims. I'm starting to question Steel's decision to exclude @Snipexe from the list. Why have you chosen now to express a lynch worthy opinion? Rath

Edit: Before you kill me, can someone please give me a reason why I'm dying? Mailliw's three reasons are 1. NAI, 2. False, and 3. Not something I have any control over. 

Devotary(4/5): Maill, Elandera, Snip, HH, some rando
Rath(2): Stick, Devotary
Stick(1): Fura
HH(1): Ark

@Lumgol, since I doubt there are any Smoker 1s out there, make sure to cast your vote at the very end of the cycle to give the Mistborn as little time as possible to figure out if it's worthwhile to Soothe you. Right now, I'm seeing either Rath+Snip or Stick+Maill as the Mistborn team, and we can't keep letting them get away. 

 

Good game Mistborn, I think my death will secure you the game. I don't know if the person Stick scanned as using Iron N2 was me, but if it was, I'm having doubts about her being Zane. If Zane soothed Lum D2, then Zane could not have used Seeker 1 on me and submitted the kill that night. 

Edit: @Elandera, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @Snipexe you can swing the lynch over to Rath without risking a last minute vote on Elend. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Stick.]

Rath. Devotary

Better secure the lynch if nothing else 

[Elandera]

Devotary, this is a bold move. But I'll go with it. I'm mostly just equally suspicious of all of you.

devotary rath