Long Game 55: Disquiet

[CadCom]

First off, @Lumgol, I suggested that you vote on me, But there are also other options. Maill and Coop for example.

Now, I've taken excerpts from posts that I believe are important from this cycle, I'll also do a TLDR at the end of the post for those that prefer light analysis.

On 5/22/2019 at 10:39 PM, Steeldancer said:

 

 

 

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On 5/22/2019 at 10:39 PM, Steeldancer said:

... I haven’t busied myself with analysis on anything other than serial killer analysis, but if that many people think Rath is a good kill, I think we outta do it. ...

Currently my top candidate for Vin is Lum, but my focus will of course be on Zane. I told Mailliw last night that I might be able to figure Zane out by day 4. With the kill on Xinoehp, well, I think I’ll be able to make some significant progress tomorrow. ...

True, you have been focusing on Serial Killer analysis. One possibility is because you wanted to figure it out. Another is because you have wanted to be able to lead or push the discussion away from you. 

Vin as lum? That's an interesting claim, as what they've done seems pretty in line with what they claimed. Figuring out Zane by D4 means that already 9 out of 21 or 22? people have died. One cycle of incorrectness means it's up to 12. That leaves 9 or 10 people left. Then by that point, it takes three separate kill actions to get rid of the Unstable Mistborns, not including their own, that's another cycle and a half.  By that point, The elims would have likely won by being able to pull off an elim hammer if none of them are lynched or killed. 

On 5/22/2019 at 10:50 PM, Elandera said:

 

 

 

 

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On 5/22/2019 at 10:50 PM, Elandera said:

... My top suspects right now are Coop and Steel, and I'm leaning toward them being Mistborn, though it's possible they're elims.

You see, I'm a Rioter 1. Before the Rae lynch was solidified, I attempted to Riot Coop's vote from CadCom to Rae. I never felt the need to change the order, as manipulation became irrelevant. As everyone pointed out, the only change in the vote count was Lum's vote being apparently Soothed. Additionally, I was notified that my attempt to Riot the vote failed due to Coop's vote being Smoked.

Additionally, this makes me suspect the Soothing on Lum was more a result of her vote on Coop than her vote on Mailliw. 

With some nighttime PMs, I was able to obtain information that Steel was the one who likely Smoked Coop. This throws up a lot of red flags for me, especially since Xino flipped as a Smoker 1. While it's possible there are multiple roles among the village, I can also see this role as having one each side along with the random chance Vin can draw it. 

Thus, I'm going to start with Steel. There's the possibility he was attempting to frame Coop, which is why I'm more willing to lynch Steel at this point. I see him having a higher chance at being Mistborn/elim.

Elan claims Rioter. Later they've claimed willingness to prove it. Informed us of desire to riot coop. This also seems reasonable, as he wasn't voting on the main suspect by the end of the cycle. Also lays out the basis of the argument that everyone is going off of. 

 

On 5/22/2019 at 11:01 PM, Mailliw73 said:

To that person with whom I had talked about this day's voting, I forgot that I wouldn't be able to use the PM anymore to let you know. I'll use the system Ada had in another game. Using the false PM's first message, each letter's placement in the message corresponds to the number on the player list. If the message were "Hello there, friend", H would symbolize Maill, being the first letter in the message and Maill being the first on the player list. For now, I'm thinking L. I will let you know if it changes. 

Rath. There's been suspicions rampant about you, yet nothing has ever stuck long enough to put pressure on you. You're floating right around the spot on my suspicion list that I want to get more out of you. 

So, after Elandera claimed it was Steel , Maill votes Rath. This is important, for reasons that will come up later. Of course L could be steeldancer, but there's no way of verifying that. L could be me too. 

22 hours ago, Coop772 said:

That is very good information to have Elandera, Steel, would you like to explain why you decided to smoke me of your own free will, or should I gather the pitchforks? Also, who else's vote did you manipulate?

This was a pretty quick vote on steel. I know that earlier I said that this post threw up some red flags for me, however, now I think that Coop would have either waited to see how it went or even tried to defend steel if they were teammates. Instead he jumped on the lynch immediatly. This doesn't necessarily mean that Coop isn't evil, just less likely to be on Steel's team. *Ninja'd by Rathmaskal*

18 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Well I don't see much reason to hide my role given the circumstances. I am indeed a smoker 1. I was kind of dumb with my smoking last turn, I really should have smoked Lumgol, but I didn't think about the possibility that her vote could be soothed. I clouded Coop and someone else, I can't remember off the top of my head, in order to help solidify the lynch on CadCom, which was the dominating lynch at the time I went to work. That's more or less what I've been trying to do with my role, make the main lynch stronger so the elims can't manipulate it I primarily just picked the first two people from the thread who had voted on CadCom. I claimed to Maill, because I was kind of frustrated about my role at the time (and honestly still am. The weakest role in the game *sigh*). I've also told him exactly who I clouded both turns. 
Also, do you realize how silly it would be to attempt to frame Coop by clouding him? What in the world? The only way he could be framed would then be if someone attempted to manipulate his vote. The chances of that happening to a single individual are low, and as such, it just sounds like a lot of effort all to have a slight possibility of throwing suspicion on Coop. Which, I have no incentive to do. 
Anyway, I can prove I'm not Vin pretty easily. I can cloud someone's vote again, and you can see they're clouded again. 
And regarding roles, well, I know I'm village. So clearly there are multiple village Smoker 1s. I wasn't too shocked when Xino came up Smoker 1, I just figure the elims have some vote manipulation. 
And no. I'm not pulling a long con. If I were the serial killer... well I wouldn't be so tense about figuring out who Zane is. I would be a lot more lazy. That or I just wouldn't do what I'm doing at all. 
As it happens, Elandera, you're one of my top candidates for Zane atm. I need to go get my actual analysis done, but I have a list of a few individuals I currently suspect of being Zane. I'm going to go cross reference it with what people said in PMs, and if I'm remembering off the top of my head correctly, Elandera fit the bill for suspecting Xino. 

This is steeldancer's first post this cycle after the accusations. He responds to all the claims, that had been brought up so far. Since I've already expressed how I believe it is unlikely that Coop and Steel are teammates, I'll point out what steel says here, that it would be such a long shot to try to frame someone of being evil based on the small chance that someone else tries to riot their vote. Coop was simply rioted. I fully believe that he just did it to solidify the lynch on me, as it is important to solidify a lynch. 

18 hours ago, Elandera said:

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, Elandera said:

....

Regarding your argument that the CadCom lynch was dominating:

That was the vote count just two posts before your "I won't be back on" post. I'd hardly say the CadCom lynch was dominating, since the last vote was on Coop to make everything a tie. Anyone on that list was well within range.

And now that I look at it, Coop hadn't even voted yet. He didn't vote for another hour and a half after your last post.

...

...

Additionally, I'm not set on you both being Mistborn. I also think it's likely you could be an elim. But your argument so far has done nothing but really solidify in my mind that you're suspect.

In fairness, At that point, I was fairly certain that I would be lynched, so even though I wasn't dominating, it seemed most people suspected me, and it was a fairly good guess. 

I am less and less convinced that Steel is a Mistborn, which was the main reason I believe many of us were trying to lynch him. I don't think the evidence is very conclusive that he's an Elim either. His reasoning seems fairly Village to me. I am getting the feeling that this the first piece of hard evidence thrown out about anyone, and even though it isn't necessarily indicitive of alignment, we are all so trigger happy, that we our vision is skewed by that. 

18 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Right... then I must have submitted the action during my break. Thus why I chose the first people I saw that had voted on CadCom. 

Reasonable. Check the thread real quick, find votes on the person that was leading the lynch when you checked, and secure votes on that person. I think it's smart. 

17 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I just double checked my action order, which I had initially assumed was before work, but as Elandera pointed out, it couldn't have been. But I submitted my action at 6:18, well after my shift at work had started. So I must have misremembered before, and I did submit my clouding over my break. 
Now, let's see what was happening at 6:18. 

... at this point CadCom was still the dominating lynch. There were 4 votes on CadCom, while CadCom had voted on Rae in self defense. And if you go up, going back in time, the first votes you see on CadCom are first HH, and then Coop. And that's why I selected the people I did. 

It's possible that the time was just made up, but someone trying to do that would have more likely just given out "It happened about 6:20" instead of a specific time. I will point out that my vote on Rae wasn't really self defense. My previous vote on coop was in part self defense, this vote was because I felt like Rae hadn't put forth as much substantial thought as he could/should have. But that is unrelated to my analysis of you, steel. I had actually considered voting on myself to help secure the lynch, but I still personally felt that my role was too valuable at that point, so I ended up deciding against it. 

16 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

First off, I concede my wording of the PMs comes off a lot more demanding that I intended it too. I didn’t mean to be like that, as evidenced by the individuals who said they couldn’t get around to it immeadietly like @Cadmium Compounder Who was busy with work. 

Look if you want to look for the SKs go ahead. But I am objectively the one best suited for the task. Inner rage, history, obsessive tendencies. That’s probably what’s come across in thread. In LG41 I had a document to pour my obsessive tendencies into. Here, I only have the thread, again because I’m not an elim either and I don’t have a doc to pour that into. 

And I will note AGAIN there was no Rae lynch even at my break, as I showed in my last post. All that happened after. My extreme annoyance at Rae’s lynch, well why would I feel that way if I were an elim? The win condition if the elims is to kill the villagers. Surely I’d be pretty happy about losing the powerful role of the Librarian. 

I’m not asking you to trust me because I’m seeking the SK. I’d be doing that whether elim or village. But I would never have claimed to Mailliw, never would have reacted to Rae’s lynch the way I did, nor would I pour my pure frustration into the thread simply because I have no other outlet for my questionable focus on Zane. 

If you lynch me just realize you’re losing your best asset at killing Zane. I can’t share my methodology because I’m approaching it the same way I approached being the serial killer- one day at a time. I haven’t done my analysis today because I wasted most of today playing Shovel knight and then when I actually started doing it my mom asked me so to stuff, as per usual. I will get it done and share it in thread. 

Straw I had to ask each individual to share their suspicions. I wasn’t going to do that in thread because that compromises it not being based on anyone else. It shows what they have to say. There’s nothing stopping people from sharing their suspicions in thread. I just went out of my way to ask each person. 

Yeah, now I’m getting frustrated. I’m going to go see a movie now. So l won’t be back until tomorrow. And I have an extremely long shift tomorrow. I probably won’t be on much. 

Steel was very chill when I said that I would get him my list when I could, but that it would be a while. This is true. He also told us in thread that he would be doing that, so it wasn't very much of a surprise, and I happily obliged. I did give him a list, but it was without reasoning, just the people and their levels of suspicion.

I mean you are very well suited for the task, but I think anyone who has played in a fair amount of games with SKs is also fairly well suited IMO. Sure you have experience, but so do many others. But I do think that you are in my opinion one of the best suited. I have difficulty using objectively. But this is semantics. I hope you can share a bit on your break!

16 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’m interested in how Rath’s defense was only to push more on straw. But my entire point in voting on him was to add pressure to see how he reacts. I’m not satisfied with how it went, but as everyone knows from PMs, Steel has been my main suspicion and is who I planned on voting for today. 

Elandera has covered the Smoking-situation, so I’ll leave that alone. I concur with her as we discussed that at night. Yes, Steel did share his Smoking targets after each day. 

D1, when I reread the thread, I realize how off Steel was being. I can’t place it, but I’m beginning to feel out his elim style (I think, watch him prove me wrong next game) and D1 he was my best lead. 

Then the whole Rae-escapade happened, and him not being around does not mean that he couldn’t have had teammates on board with the plan to vote on Rae later in the day. 

His fixation on the Mistborn is excessive, but I do understand his fascination with it, having been an SK multiple times. Steel, you are by no means our “objectively best tool” to find them. You’re the best tool for finding yourself as a serial killer, but that’s the only one you have experience with. You’re no better a tool for finding an SK than you are for finding the elims, since you’ve been both. There is no SK manual that anyone has to follow. And, you’ve made it to D3 with very little to show aside from a (in your words, inadequate) vote on Rae. 

Steel has also never really shared much in the way of suspicions, at least in my pm with him, or what I’ve seen of him in the thread. 

Between all of that, in addition to what everyone else has posted, I believe Steel is the best option for a lynch and that tomorrow, Rath or Coop would be, depending on Steel’s alignment. 

Finally Maill votes for Steel. Granted, this is his first post in a while, so he may not have been on since the lynch started developing, BUT, It took him a while to vote on Steel, including placing another vote on Rath after Elan already started the Steel discussion. Best I can assume is that this is L that was mentioned earlier. Could Maill's PM contact confirm if this is the case?

If Steel shared his smoking targets each day, that makes it nearly impossible for him to be Vin. He can't be Zane, because Zane doesn't have access to that role. Could he be an Elim, yes, but it's not guaranteed, and I think that the Mistborns are more of a threat at this point. 

15 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What other roles do you think are no longer possessed by villagers among Soother 2, Thug 1, Smoker 2, Seeker 1, Seeker 2, and Rioter 2, given that the Mistborn have access to all those powers except for Rioter 2?

How long was your break? If you had enough time to read the thread and choose targets to smoke with the intention of ensuring a CadCom lynch, did you have time to place a vote on CadCom yourself? There shouldn't have been any reason to keep your vote on Rae if you preferred a Cadcom lynch.

If Coop and Steel are on the same team and the Soothe on Lum was intended to protect Coop, then either we have a Vin!Steel who foolishly claimed a role he wouldn't be able to consistently prove, or we have an elim team including both a Smoker 1 and a Soother 1. Even though I doubt the elims have much in the way of vote manipulation, to the extent that I would consider a Rioter 1 overpowered on a team of four elims, it's still more likely that Coop and Steel would be elims together than Mistborn. I could also see an elim!Steel, without anything better to do with his day action, smoking people he wasn't on a team with in the hopes that someone would manipulate their vote.

On a related note Elandera, would you kindly Riot someone's vote today to prove you're not a Soother without wasting a Tineye 2 or a Seeker 1? I'm assuming from the silence that if Mailliw was Seeked last night, he wasn't observed doing anything suspicious like burning steel, which may be because we have no village Seeker 1s left.

This is a good analysis post. Devotary excellently explained that it's more likely that if Steel is evil, he's Elim, not Mistborn.

Yet, now, we are having Elandera prove themself this cycle, while at the same time, lynching the person she claims is evil? I understand we are desparate to prove everything as well as go on any lead possible at this point, but Lets take a moment to consider everything objectively. 

13 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

I swear I’ve explained my vote on Rae like 10 times now. It was to gather information. Not to lynch her. I only had a 15 minute break that day, and generally I also need to eat during that time. So I showed you I picked the easiest people to cloud on the major vote and then probably checked discord and ate the rest of the time. SE doesn’t own my break. When I say I’m not going to be on, I’m not going to be. I didn’t change my vote because I didn’t see much point in voting on CadCom, and well what else was I supposed to do? 

I also am completely blanking on why people think a steel coop elim team is a thing. What.... where is that even coming from? I clouded his vote because it was convenient! Why don’t you just look at the post where I show you the timing and LOOK? 

Alright. If you really want to know what I have, I have 4 names I've narrowed it down to. 
Stick, Snipexe, Elandera, and maybe Straw. Mailliw if I'm being paranoid. That's 5 names. But it's what I have to offer. I haven't voted on them because I'm not done yet. My work remains incomplete. If you waited a single more cycle to let me finish, I could narrow it down to one name. 

Steel has explained that their vote on Rae was to hopefully push Rae to come back and post more. Unfortunately, they didn't make it back, and Rae was lynched. Rae, when Steel left, wasn't really even being considered. We can't just look at the vote, because it is entirely plausible that it was made up. I personally believe Steel on this. *Ninja'd by Stick*

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Fine then. Lynch me. rath  Steel . Clearly I must be the best option to kill, even though my behavior makes absolutely no sense as an eliminator. I’m a way better player than this, why would I be so honest and blatant with how I feel about things? 

Well anyway I won’t be around whatsoever today. I have a 7 hour shift, and it’s not going to be fun. I guess this is more or less my last game I’ll play for 2 years. Fitting I die before I manage to whittle down the final names. 

You definitely seem angry by this time, but you are still willing to vote on yourself. I know some elims have done this in the past, but it hasn't happened in a while, so It seems as if you are still genuinely trying to help. 

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

If I'm going to die, I'm going to take one final stab at this. 
Elandera claims to be a rioter, an interesting claim, as Zane cannot use any form of rioting. And truly, the only way she could have known to ask about Coops clouding would be if she had attempted to manipulate his vote in some manner. As zane, she conceivably could have done that by soothing his vote, but why would she do that if she were Zane? It makes no sense. 
If I lower Straw's probability of being the mistborn because his activity doesn't fit it, and assume Mailliw really was framed by the mistborn, that leaves only two people of my main suspicions. I will note there are others who could still be the mistborn I didn't list because I feel like they don't fit the bill, like Rath and Ark. Snipexe and Stick. 
Alright then. Snipexe was suspicious in my PM, blatantly asking me if I was an eliminator. And he never actually sent me a list of suspicions. I replied no, because I'm not an eliminator, if I were an eliminator I would have played this game a lot more ideally. But asking that... while Zane might do that, it just doesn't feel... right? Why would anyone ever answer "yes" to that question, even if they actually were an eliminator? 
That whittles it down to Stick. A lot of assumptions were made in the making of this conclusion, and it very well might be wrong because I don't have the additional cycle I need to pare it down all the way. But in a way, it feels right. Stick voted on me for the most fragile reason in thread (which I showed was completely incorrect). And of course Zane would want to be rid of me. Snipexe hasn't even voted yet. So yeah, Stick. I think you're Zane. I don't have the time to gather the evidence I need to pin you down as such, but it's what I suspect. 
Oh and look at that. When I cross reference this with my PM with stick, guess who she suspected? Xino. And she was also quite hedgey regarding guessing at who the mistborn is, saying something along the lines of "Oh they'll look really village in thread."
I think I've got it on the button. Oh of course Stick will deny it, it's only the rational thing to do. But I think I've got you pinned. And if I'm wrong, well it's only a matter of time before the real one gets shot dead in the water by the assassin or something. 

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

....

Oh no...Did I just prove you right but denying it??:P 

Yes Stick, Yes you did. 
On another note, Thank you steel for posting your possibly final thoughts. I do hope to hear from you again before the end of the cycle. But if we don't, We will be sure to use this no matter how you flip. 

 

TLDR

Alright, now I'm here to the TLDR

It seems unlikely that Steel is Mistborn. If anything he's Elim, but I don't see Elim!steel pushing so hard to get rid of the Mistborn publicly. I know mistborns are the biggest threat to the Elims, but I just don't see steel doing that.

@Mailliw73 and your PM contact, could you confirm if Steel is "L" 

I think that Steels recent actions sound like an overly frustrated Villager more than anything else, especially his vote on himself. 

For that reason, I will not be voting on Steel for now. If, when I get on last, I see that his lynch is inevitable, but not with enough votes to safeguard from an Elim hammer, I will switch, but for now, I still suspect Maill 
*Ninja'd by Maill- Not sure what to make of that post yet, as it seems like "L" might not refer to Steel*

[CadCom]

Sorry for the double post, but does my quote format come across as messed up to anyone else? I would have just edited this in, but my edit button isn't working either.

[Furamirionind]

My brain is fried from working on this game yesterday, and being at work today means my time today will likely be minimal.

@Lumgol You need to change your vote from Steel if he is the largest lynch EoD. I'd suggest CadCom.
@Steeldancer you are smoking Lum right?

Steel, idk. All the analysis on him starts by assuming either Coop, or Steel is evil, which I really don't like.  Many of Steel's posts are strange, and I don't believe he ever responded to my questioning of his post.  Generally, I think Steel sounds pretty defensive of himself, but I also think he (after a couple attempts) explained why he smoked Coop/HH well, which was the reason most people are voting on him.

The thing that really gets me, is he is saying Lum is Vin. Why would he say that?!?!?! We even had quite the... Discussion about it last night, and it is such a tin-foil claim to keep making.  I can't see why evil!Steel would push that as it is just so outlandish (I will admit it is possible, but not helpful in analysis yet). It would just be easier to ignore Vin.

My vote will likely be decided by whatever CadCom posts.

52 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah...and I did so in-thread as well. Couple of times in various PMs as well if I recall correctly. And I’m pretty sure I wasn’t the only one expressing suspicion of them. But how does that mean that I’m Zane? Wouldn’t Zane be better off lying about his suspicions in thread so that suspicion doesn’t fall on him when he, idk, kills the very people he publicly expressed suspicion of? Anybody could’ve killed Xino. 

There isn’t really much I can say in defense to your case but there you go.

Even that isn't really a defense. It's all IKYK.

Ninja'd by Maill

Edit: Oh, wow. Double Ninja by CadCom. Awesome!

@Cadmium Compounder you Stick quote is, but the rest is fine I think

Nevermind, yeah it is messed up. Was scanning from the bottom up.

---

So many ninjas lol.

@Cadmium Compounder (idk if this will work with me tagging you twice in one post. Just trying to avoid double posting).

I agree with most of what you said, except for:

Quote

I don't see elim!Steel pushing so hard for the Mistborn publically

(I had to type that manually as for some reason, computers I use never seem to register your posts as text, and always think they are pictures...)

I think he would. Like what Maill says, regardless of alignment, Steel's motivation for joining this game was either to kill everyone as the SK, or kill the SKs...

Edited May 24, 2019 by Furamirionind
3 posts in 1?

[Mailliw73]

CadCom, L is not Steel. If my pm contact confirms L then it’s useless.  

As for my switch to Steel, I mentioned it in the post, but I can re-explain. Last night, in many PMs, especially ones with people I trust, I talked about how Steel was going to again be my lynch target. There was another reason in sharing this: I wanted to see people who would defend him quickly in-thread. Then, today, I voted on Rath, who was another of my suspicions, but not as high. I wanted to see how he’d react if there were multiple votes on him. I fully intended to switch to Steel. 

I don’t like how you say that the Mistborn are a bigger threat right now than the elims. We haven’t caught even one elim yet, so the Mistborn are no closer to winning than we are. If we focus on them, we’ll lose, guaranteed. Unless there’s some kind of consensus on who the two Mistborn are, I’m pretty sure we’d lynch enough villagers in that search that the infiltrators would win. This lynch is our best so far, hard evidence or not, so I think we should stick with it and see where it leads. 

[Furamirionind]

34 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I don’t like how you say that the Mistborn are a bigger threat right now than the elims. We haven’t caught even one elim yet, so the Mistborn are no closer to winning than we are. If we focus on them, we’ll lose, guaranteed. Unless there’s some kind of consensus on who the two Mistborn are, I’m pretty sure we’d lynch enough villagers in that search that the infiltrators would win. This lynch is our best so far, hard evidence or not, so I think we should stick with it and see where it leads. 

Hmm. Worst case scenario, there are 4 elims, 2 mistborn, which leaves us with 9 villagers right now.

If we lynch Zane D3, worst case scenario:

D3: 9-2-4 (-Zane lynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D4: 7-2-4 (-Zane lynch, -Elim kill)
D5: 6-1-4 (-Mislynch, -elim kill)
D6: 4-1-4  ----- This is now LyLo. And even then,.we basically only win if the elims try to kill Vin. So we have 1 mislynch.

If we lynch an elim:

D3: 9-2-4 (-Elim lynch, -MB kill, Elim kill)
D4: 7-2-3 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, Elim kill)
D5: 2-2-3 (-At this point, the village has already lost. The game then becomes do the elims manage to lynch a MB. if no, then I think the MB likely win. Again, 1 mislynch)

just for the sake of it:

D3: 9-2-4 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D4: 6-2-4 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D5: 3-2-4 

Neither Lynching Zane, nor lynching an elim looks great for our prospects right now, as regardless we only get 1 mislynch. In fact, we only get 1 mislynch after today, period. Regardless what happens today. HOWEVER, I like our chances of winning in a 4-1-4 much more than a 2-2-3.

Edit: Oh, I just realized we get an extra day if we lynch Zane as well. However, that is contingent on lynching him today, which seems unlikely right now.

Edit: Edit: Wait, does Joe count for anything? Can he do anything? This was all assuming he can't...

Edited May 24, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Mailliw73]

One mislynch yes, but we should be able to start catching the elims and Mistborn as they’re narrowed down. But we need one dead to be able to really start the chain reactions. 

[CadCom]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If we lynch an elim:

D3: 9-2-4 (-Elim lynch, -MB kill, Elim kill)
D4: 7-2-3 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, Elim kill)
D5: 2-2-3 (-At this point, the village has already lost. The game then becomes do the elims manage to lynch a MB. if no, then I think the MB likely win. Again, 1 mislynch)

Neither Lynching Zane, nor lynching an elim looks great for our prospects right now, as regardless we only get 1 mislynch. In fact, we only get 1 mislynch after today, period. Regardless what happens today. HOWEVER, I like our chances of winning in a 4-1-4 much more than a 2-2-3.

I don't get how from D4 to D5, we go from 7 living Elims to 2. Shouldn't we go to 4?

[Furamirionind]

13 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I don't get how from D4 to D5, we go from 7 living Elims to 2. Shouldn't we go to 4?

Umm, yeah you're right... I don't know how I made that jump...

So, to revise:

D3: 9-2-4 (-Elim lynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D4: 7-2-3 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D5: 4-2-3 (-Mislynch, -MB kill, -Elim kill)
D6: 1-2-3

So actually, I've got to agree with Maill then. Lynching an elim is the best thing we could do today. It gives, worst case scenario 6 anti-elim kills. (4 additional ones.) Where the other scenarios only give 2 anti-elim kills each. Also, recovering from a 4-2-3 seems very doable. Hard, but doable.

Edit: Ok, thinking about it, anti-elim kills aren't necisarily good. But it gives us 2 extra mislynches where the others only give 1. That is the actual selling point. : )

Edited May 24, 2019 by Furamirionind
Forgot to add an "edit"

[Mailliw73]

Anti-elim kills? What does that mean? 

[Furamirionind]

4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Anti-elim kills? What does that mean? 

I was lumping the village lynch and the MB night kill into 1 thing. I just called them "anti-elim".

[Steeldancer]

Thanks CadCom. I appreciate the effort. But it seems everyone is convinced I am an elim. 

As a sign of good faith I’ll cloud Lums vote. But I’d encourage Lum to vote on Stick. Stick would you have a problem with that? Because if you do, well, that would be suspicious wouldn’t it?

the reasoning behind me thinking Lum is Vin is that she hasn’t actually proved her role a second time yet. I found the soothing too convenient. I find the role claim too convenient. It’s all just too convenient. But I’ll smoke Lumgol and then her role should be more or less confirmed. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

sIf I lower Straw's probability of being the mistborn because his activity doesn't fit it, and assume Mailliw really was framed by the mistborn, that leaves only two people of my main suspicions. I will note there are others who could still be the mistborn I didn't list because I feel like they don't fit the bill, like Rath and Ark. Snipexe and Stick. 

It doesn't take a whole lot of activity to submit a kill. Straw made a post during both night cycles for instance, and having time to make a post gives you time to submit an action. I guess you won't be seeing this before the end of the day, but I would like to see some of your methodology and how you eliminated suspects from consideration. Perhaps Kelsier can help out, though 200 words isn't a lot.

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

That was just something I felt the need to point out. Did it add to my suspicion? Yes. I already expressed my thoughts on you and your vote on Rae last night in-thread, plus, Elandera makes a very convincing case. That’s mostly what made me drop the Rath lynch for the time being. Now I’m not saying I completely trust Elandera, but whichever way you flip will be useful in providing info on that. Regardless of the info gain though, as of now I am quite convinced that you are either an elim or Mistborn. 

lt seems that Maill is fairly convinced that Steel is not the Mistborn, likely because a Mistborn!Steel would not have claimed Smoker 1 and proceeded to tell Maill who his smoking targets were, and also because Maill reads Steel's frustration as not having caught Zane, which would be a nonissue for a Mistborn Steel. The roleclaim part is more convincing, especially as Maill and Steel are almost certainly not on the same evil team. That would mean Steel is only evil if he's an elim. One of the bigger pieces of Elandera's case was that it's unlikely that there are two village Smoker 1s, given that there probably isn't too much vote manipulation to protect from. Smoker 1 isn't that great of an elim role either, as only being able to protect two people from vote manipulation is far from guaranteed safety, we've been trying to avoid close lynches that could actually be affected by vote manipulation, and a hammer on Elend wouldn't be timed so as to give vote manipulators time to respond. The other case for elim Steel is that he claims to have supported the CadCom lynch without actually voting for CadCom. At that time, the vote tally was

Maill(1): STINK
Rae(2): Steel, CadCom
Coop(3): Lum, Rath, Straw
CadCom(4): Maill, Fura, Coop, HH (In that order)
Rath(1): Stick

While CadCom was the leading vote at that time, it was far from a dominating lynch.

13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Neither Lynching Zane, nor lynching an elim looks great for our prospects right now, as regardless we only get 1 mislynch. In fact, we only get 1 mislynch after today, period. Regardless what happens today. HOWEVER, I like our chances of winning in a 4-1-4 much more than a 2-2-3.

At some point, we should stop getting two village deaths a night, either because the kill roles hit Thug and Lurcher targets, or because the evil teams finally start hitting each other. We're not quite desperate yet, although I suppose you did say you were outlining a worst case scenario.

[Lumgol]

Steeldancer Furamirionind

I would have voted for CadCom. However, he's expressed willingness to be scanned and prove his role, which means he's probably not a Mistborn or named role, which wouldn't help in determining whether or not CadCom is village.

Although I slightly trust Fura, they've been kinda flying under the radar this whole game, not really being investigated, and I have received no claims as to Fura's role.

Hmmmm, I might actually vote Stick, kinda to respect Steel's last wishes. I might do that. I might end up switching my vote to Stick. Fura for now.

[Rathmaskal]

As usual when I make a huge post...about 126147 ninjas during it...and this one I had to go address a semi-emergency at work in the middle of it...so as I'm reading through the posts that have come in since, I want to note CadCom seems to be on a very similar mindset to me here, but I came up with this independently:

Steel:

• D1 starts a bit of IKYK with the elims.  "...If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious....Obviously it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express supicion on publically..."  If Zane hadn't already thought about this, he was able to at this point.  Might have been better to hold onto this theory until you'd had a chance to use it.  Now I could easily see Zane having killed someone he (or she...but since it's a male character I'm going to keep using 'he') had explicitly shown suspicion on during one day.  And now I'm getting into an IKYK loop.
• D1 calls out Araris for saying that elims and mistborn may look the same in thread...mostly defending his decision to focus on the mistborn team.  I've been mostly unsure about this strategy throughout much of the game.  It would be an easy way for an elim to hide and seem to be working in the village's favor.  But, it could also be a villager noticing an inefficiency that could allow the MB team to win - basically, everyone is used to searching for elims and are probably better at it than in finding the MB team.  So, it actually kind of makes a bit of sense...
• N1 notes his vote on Araris was '...a bit of a long shot...'  More on this later.
• N1 throws a will of sorts out in the expectation he'll be targetted by Zane that night.  SINCE HE DIDN'T DIE, honestly, I think this is a decent argument that he's NOT on the MB team.  Basically, if Steel is Zane (or Vin) obviously he's not going to be killed by the MB team.  If Steel isn't Zane or Vin, however, it's really easy for Zane to see this and say, "Hmm, I could leave this guy alive and try to frame him as MB because he didn't die even though he's the only one looking for us."
• D2 analysis post on who may have killed Bard.  At this point, either he's contradicting D1 or he realized he set up the IKYK situation I mentioned earlier.  Also ends up voting on Rae here.

Side note here.  For some reason in the main thread, when I'm on page 13 and try to click on other pages, I can't...but I don't have any other issues.  Odd.

• D2 responds to Rae's defense - this post I'm very OK with.  To simplify the exchange, "Hey Rae, I think you might be MB." "I'm not" "Umm, that doesn't work"
• D2 posts that he doesn't intend to see Rae lynched, but is leaving his vote where it is for now (so, it's been mentioned that Steel didn't actually tell people not to vote on Rae.  This post actually kind of does that...)  https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85159-long-game-55-disquiet/?do=findComment&comment=870842
• D2 notes that he won't be back until after rollover (Important to bring up since this has also been a topic of conversation today and I want to make sure the timeline here is correct)
• N2 freak out about the Rae lynch
• N2 back tracks a bit on the freak out part, but remains adamant that it was a bad lynch
• N2 responds to Stick calling out Steel not moving his vote.  I tend to take 'I wasn't around' at face value whenever people say this for the most part... More on this later.
• N2 notes that xino hasn't registered on his radar.  (honestly, I feel like xino is usually like that)  Notes me as <reading between the lines> a mid-level possibility for MB.
• N2 notes that the soothe is possibly more likely to be due to the MB trying to pin MB on Maill than actually Maill actually being MB.

Side note.  Maill responds with "Steel=Zane confirmed." at this point quoting Steel saying "...it feels like the kind of move I would make..."  This may be a harmless joke...but actually I find kind of suspicious.

AND ONTO TODAY

• Vote on me to start the day.  Notes that this is heavily influenced by PM suspicions.  <reading between the lines> Kind of back tracking on his quest for searching for the MB based on this post.
• After getting called out for smoking Coop, admits to smoker 1 role and used it to solidify CadCom lynch.  Notes Elandera as a top candidate for Zane.  Notes that he told Maill who he smoked both cycles.
• *Elandera calls out Steel for the smoking having happened after Steel said he'd be gone for the day*
• Steel's response seems like a bit of a backtrack here...
• Next post seems like an overall defense of all that's been going on.  The rest of the posts today have mostly been more of the same.

Overall, Steel's, somewhat frantic often, tone actually seems fairly genuine.  The biggest thing I think people are looking at right now as seriously suspicious is the fact that Steel was supposed to have been gone but submitted an action during that time but didn't move his vote.  His single-minded quest to find the MB is an insteresting choice this game, but I wouldn't consider damning at all.  Honestly, here's my thoughts on Steel's chances of being on each team:

MB: 1%
Elim: 30%
Village: 69%

(Yes, these percentages are kind of stupid...but I just want to point out that considering Steel as MB seems like huge longshot...but I do think elim.Steel is a reasonable possibility)

So, I do think this is a reasonable lynch.  If there seems to be the potential for an elim hammer when I am heading out for the day (I will NOT be on around rollover today...and will likely only have about 15 minutes available about 2 hours prior to the end of the cycle...so it will be a quick hop in and vote if necessary) I'll move over to Steel.  But if it's a runaway, I won't.  (And, with I think Devotary's analysis from yesterday's day end, I think I'm on board for the 'we need at least 6, if not 7 people on a lynch to prevent the hammer'  So, basically, if we're under that point, I'll move over.  Yes, I'm probably overexplaining here...)

[Furamirionind]

8 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

MB: 1%
Elim: 30%
Village: 69%

(Yes, these percentages are kind of stupid...but I just want to point out that considering Steel as MB seems like huge longshot...but I do think elim.Steel is a reasonable possibility)

You think that 30% is reasonable lynching odds on D3?

9 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, I do think this is a reasonable lynch.  If there seems to be the potential for an elim hammer when I am heading out for the day (I will NOT be on around rollover today...and will likely only have about 15 minutes available about 2 hours prior to the end of the cycle...so it will be a quick hop in and vote if necessary) I'll move over to Steel.  But if it's a runaway, I won't.  (And, with I think Devotary's analysis from yesterday's day end, I think I'm on board for the 'we need at least 6, if not 7 people on a lynch to prevent the hammer'  So, basically, if we're under that point, I'll move over.  Yes, I'm probably overexplaining here...)

Can you guarantee you will be again before rollover to change your vote? I see a "likely" in there...

[CadCom]

I just realized I didn't retract my vote from Coop, so just In case I have to do that Coop, Maill For the reasons I explained in my huge post above

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

As a sign of good faith I’ll cloud Lums vote. But I’d encourage Lum to vote on Stick. Stick would you have a problem with that?

If y'all think that's currently the best option to help us get closer to finding the MB/elims, then sure go ahead. 

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

Steeldancer Furamirionind

I would have voted for CadCom. However, he's expressed willingness to be scanned and prove his role, which means he's probably not a Mistborn or named role, which wouldn't help in determining whether or not CadCom is village.

Although I slightly trust Fura, they've been kinda flying under the radar this whole game, not really being investigated, and I have received no claims as to Fura's role.

Hmmmm, I might actually vote Stick, kinda to respect Steel's last wishes. I might do that. I might end up switching my vote to Stick. Fura for now.

I don't know. I'd say there's about a 75% chance that Fura's a villager - you may be wasting your vote, putting it there. I've got no actual evidence, but they're currently one of my biggest village reads based on their posts and our PM. 

[Rathmaskal]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

You think that 30% is reasonable lynching odds on D3?

Can you guarantee you will be again before rollover to change your vote? I see a "likely" in there...

Reasonable, yes.  Good, absolutely not.  Like I said, the numbers are kind of stupid and made up.  The biggest thing I was trying to get across there is that I think there's almost zero chance that Steel is MB, and a non-zero chance he's elim.  I could have said 40%/59% and felt the same about the number.  Maybe not 49/50.  I don't think it's that close.

Guarantee?  There are no guarantees in life   But I plan on being on at the end of my work day (in about 4 hours)

(Just got back from lunch a few minutes early so had a chance to check in now as well)

[Lumgol]

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

 

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

Steeldancer Furamirionind

I would have voted for CadCom. However, he's expressed willingness to be scanned and prove his role, which means he's probably not a Mistborn or named role, which wouldn't help in determining whether or not CadCom is village.

Although I slightly trust Fura, they've been kinda flying under the radar this whole game, not really being investigated, and I have received no claims as to Fura's role.

Hmmmm, I might actually vote Stick, kinda to respect Steel's last wishes. I might do that. I might end up switching my vote to Stick. Fura for now.

I don't know. I'd say there's about a 75% chance that Fura's a villager - you may be wasting your vote, putting it there. I've got no actual evidence, but they're currently one of my biggest village reads based on their posts and our PM. 

Would you rather have me vote for you?

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Would you rather have me vote for you?

I would rather you vote on Rath or Coop since I already know my role  

[Fifth Scholar]

After discussing with others, and in response to a player asking me about this, I have decided to allow each player to submit one action in advance throughout the course of the entire game for a cycle in which they will be completely unavailable and unable to access the Shard. 

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I would rather you vote on Rath or Coop since I already know my role  

Well obviously that’s the case. The question is it an evil role? I’ve seen how nefarious evil stick can be before. As I’ve said before, Zane is a silver tongued liar. The only thing you can rely on is their actions. 
I just got back from work, but it turns out that I'm going to go see Aladdin and that might go past rollover. So here's what I have to say. 
I've tried to be honest. I've tried to be a good player. 
But this game, well, I didn't play my best. And that was deliberate. I knew I was going to get lynched eventually, and perhaps this timing is the best, as my game begins tomorrow (small plug for that, if you've read skyward please join I need the players). But I did want to see Zane dead. Badly. In the spirit of that, Steel Stick. I will not go gentle into that good night. And so from the depths of hell I stab at thee, Zane. I guarantee you will die before this game ends. Even if it wasn't at my hands. 
It's been fun playing SE. I'm still sad I didn't get to be a serial killer one last time. Perhaps I wouldn't feel so down about it if Fifth hadn't trolled me with the Zane role... I told Mailliw all about that. 
Anyway I'm signing off. I probably won't be back on again, nor will I be joining the next LG. If you wanna see me, go sign up for my MR.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Mailliw73]

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I was lumping the village lynch and the MB night kill into 1 thing. I just called them "anti-elim".

Ah, that makes sense, I was confused at what exactly fit into that. 

4 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

lt seems that Maill is fairly convinced that Steel is not the Mistborn, likely because a Mistborn!Steel would not have claimed Smoker 1 and proceeded to tell Maill who his smoking targets were, and also because Maill reads Steel's frustration as not having caught Zane, which would be a nonissue for a Mistborn Steel. The roleclaim part is more convincing, especially as Maill and Steel are almost certainly not on the same evil team. That would mean Steel is only evil if he's an elim. One of the bigger pieces of Elandera's case was that it's unlikely that there are two village Smoker 1s, given that there probably isn't too much vote manipulation to protect from. Smoker 1 isn't that great of an elim role either, as only being able to protect two people from vote manipulation is far from guaranteed safety, we've been trying to avoid close lynches that could actually be affected by vote manipulation, and a hammer on Elend wouldn't be timed so as to give vote manipulators time to respond. The other case for elim Steel is that he claims to have supported the CadCom lynch without actually voting for CadCom. At that time, the vote tally was

Maill(1): STINK
Rae(2): Steel, CadCom
Coop(3): Lum, Rath, Straw
CadCom(4): Maill, Fura, Coop, HH (In that order)
Rath(1): Stick

While CadCom was the leading vote at that time, it was far from a dominating lynch.

So, one point I want to make clear is that Steel telling me his smoking targets always happened at the night turn, so it would be after the votes were visible. Two potential elim options(and I recognize this is with the assumption he's evil): 1. He's Vin and chose to claim one of the powers he can actually have. 2. He chose a role that was easy to fake and used the tallies to make his claim work. The second only works if someone else actually smoked Coop or if Elandera is lying about being a Rioter. We have yet to see Elandera actually Riot. Given my reads of them before, I generally trust Elandera much more than I do Steel. Another option is that he's just a village/elim Smoker and is actually jsut smoking at random like he claims, but that gives no real reads to his alignment. 

I am more than willing to bus Steel, as anyone who played that Secret Hitler game with us can attest. But, yes, it seems pretty clear that we aren't on the same team. 

An anti-village(elim and/or mistborn) Smoker still works. For the elims, it gives them some element of voting control without actually giving them vote manipulation abilities. And then Vin obviously has that ability. 

It's not him supporting the CadCom lynch without voting for CadCom that I have a problem with. It's the way he voted for Rae with contradictory reasons and then left it, supposedly knowing it would do no good, and then got angry at everyone else who voted for Rae. 

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Hmmmm, I might actually vote Stick, kinda to respect Steel's last wishes. I might do that. I might end up switching my vote to Stick. Fura for now.

It's an interesting dilemma. If Steel flips elim, you may have wasted a scan. If he's village, then you actually can respect his wishes. 

To that person. The L comes from the false PM and the word you should use to confirm comes from the real one. You are the person with whom night plans were made. 

Steel, that's a nice signoff, but I just am not buying the extra emotional attacks recently. It's too heavily laid on. 

[CadCom]

Since I might not sign on again, and I'm fairly certain I know how this lynch will go,  and I want to make it so the elims can't hammer, maill, steel. Sorrsawy your last game had to end like this. You can speak to us from the dead though, through Joe

Edited May 24, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Lumgol]

@Mailliw73 

1) Does the false PM refer to something that was intended to be a PM?

2) If yes, I want to be cautious about not doing something potentially worthless.

For now, I'll keep my vote where it is, because I don't have that much of a motivation to change it.