Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Amanuensis]

I have absolutely no idea how it slipped my mind, but I'll be attending a music festival this weekend. I'm going to try to get on and post a couple times every day, but if I vanish again, that's why.

Also in response to Straw never being elim. He definitely has been, though I don't believe it's been exceptionally frequent. I did, however, notice a trend of village!Straw being lynched early in many games due to his play style, so more often than not I'm going to advocate him being kept alive until mid-late game. I usually get suspicious of people who try to kill him as a result. 

[Steeldancer]

I just double checked my action order, which I had initially assumed was before work, but as Elandera pointed out, it couldn't have been. But I submitted my action at 6:18, well after my shift at work had started. So I must have misremembered before, and I did submit my clouding over my break. 
Now, let's see what was happening at 6:18. 

This is the first post after my break. I will note at this point CadCom was still the dominating lynch. There were 4 votes on CadCom, while CadCom had voted on Rae in self defense. And if you go up, going back in time, the first votes you see on CadCom are first HH, and then Coop. And that's why I selected the people I did. 

[Lumgol]

Alright, now for some really long and mostly meaningless analyzing of Steel!

Day 1

1. RP, followed by him stating for the first time that he’ll be hunting for SK’s because he knows their playstyle. Also poke votes on HH. 
2. A long post. Suggests again that Steel will be focusing on finding the SK’s, and proposes a method. Says that SK’s will be killing those they suspect and we should find the SK’s by looking at who they kill and who suspected them. However, Steel heavily implies that said suspicion should be found through PM’s. The rest of this post I find NAI, but the part that I paraphrased here is one that I’ll look into more below.
3. Asks Fifth about how Vin’s powers work. Pretty NAI.
4. Suggests that Vin will be easier to find than Zane because of her inconsistent abilities. 
5. Disagrees with Araris’s statement that the Mistborn aren’t really SK’s. Says that Mistborn can definitely be called SK’s. 
6. Removes his vote on HH after being reminded that they posted.
7. Votes on Araris because of him seeming to downplay the importance of SK’s. Although Araris later flipped village, I think that he was a reasonably justified D1 target and Steel’s vote fits with his plan of hunting the SK’s.
8. Joke about a chicken spike. ELIM CONFIRMED. (Kidding.)

Moving on to N1.

1. Asks Maill about the rationale behind his vote. Then acts apologetic about his vote on Araris, which I find quite interesting, because it’s like he’s refusing to take responsibility for voting now that Araris flipped village. Although I could potentially see a villager doing this, that kind of move kinda raises alarms for me. Afterward, he asks for more clarification about whether SK kills and elim kills will be differentiated, for his plan of identifying suspects. (Then speculates about Joe, which is less relevant.)
2. Pokes Fifth again about elim kills vs. SK kills.
3. Responds to Fura pointing out Fifth’s previous answer of PAFO
4. Says that he plans to make PM’s. States, concretely for the first time (when it was implied in his second post D1), that he will try to hunt for SK suspects based on people’s suspicions shared in PM’s. Also provides some advice on hunting SK’s. This is one of those posts where it really feels like Steel is trying to order the village around. Most of the advice seems pretty straightforward. The third point is a bit suspiciously phrased: I think that simply stating that elims and villagers alike are going after SK’s would have come off as more village-sounding than the fact that we should trust the elims. His final part, especially about getting in “the right headspace”, especially sounds like… condescending? I don’t know.

Day 2

1. Expresses frustration at the kills not being differentiated. I agree that this differentiation would probably have been helpful.
2. Then tentatively agrees (?) that Bard was implied to have been killed by SK’s.
3. Reacts to revelation of Joe as Kelsier and the mist whispers.
4. Says he’ll do an analysis of the people who interacted with Bard. More talking about Joe and the mist whispers, but saying that he wants to focus on Zane instead.
5. Comments on the fact that yellow text is hard to read.
6. Analysis of D1! Notes some people who voted on Bard. SAYS THAT A ZANE SUSPECT WOULD HAVE MORE LIKELY NOT SUSPECTED BARD IN THREAD. THEN VOTES ON THE FIRST PERSON TO VOTE FOR BARD (Rae). I will concede that it was intended as more of a temporary vote and you requested information from PM’s about who suspected Bard. However, this asking from PM’s seems kinda sketchy to me.
7. Notes that Rae’s defense was “not very helpful”, as though he might have been looking for more reasons to suspect her? Also pokes Fura to reveal players who suspected Bard in PM’s. I honestly don’t think that those players would really be suspicious, since Bard was a popular target but he didn’t really have much justification to be voted on. As Fura said, Bard was a popular suspect and many people who express suspicion in PM’s kind of reflect on what they would have posted in thread anyway.
8. Reacts to Coop checking in.
9. Notes that the gap in logic that he made (from Zane likely not openly suspecting Bard to voting on Rae) was intended to pry information out of Rae. However, he still doesn’t take his vote off Rae, which is what I would expect at this point. He literally makes a case against voting Rae, then votes on her.
10. Warns that he won’t be on at rollover. Still keeps his vote on Rae. 

Meanwhile, the Rae lynch solidifies

Night 2

1. This is where it really gets interesting. Steel opposes the lynch on the very person he voted for. I guess I see where he’s coming from, since his vote was less of a serious vote, but he never opposed a lynch on Rae, and he never moved his vote off Rae, which would be the thing to do if an information-gaining Lynch doesn’t give you information reveals. Also: The people who voted on Rae mostly didn’t even think it was a smart lynch; they seemed to be more paranoid of an elim hammer on Elend.
2. “Irrelevant post”
3. Comment about how bad wifi sucks (which it does)
4. More annoyance about Rae having been lynched. Now, if you think that the people who lynched Rae had bad reasons for it, and they voted on her for similar reasons to yours, then how is you voting on Rae and not taking your vote off justified?
5. Mostly reacts to people reacting to his reaction to the Rae lynch. This actually makes me less suspicious of some earlier posts, because this explanation is pretty convincing. Something more interesting is his statement that he wants the village to look for elims, because he’s focusing on finding the SK’s. This kind of implies that he believes he should be the only one looking for SK’s. Why? We can’t necessarily trust you just because you’re doing this. The village is not just going to blindly let ONE PERSON look for SK’s without clearing them as village or anything.
6. Says that he doesn’t have particular reads on Xino and Rath.
7. Says that people who suspect Maill as a SK are likely to be SK’s? Also says that I’m his top suspect for Vin. I’m not Vin, but at this point I don’t really have much to prove that I’m not.
8. Joke about him wishing he was Zane.

Aaaaaand we’re back to today. I'll refrain from looking at the whole Smoking situation for now, as it would be too much for one post. Now for some thoughts involving PM’s.

Steel PMed me, and I'm assuming many others, requesting lists of suspicions for elims and SK's. Although I understand where that strategy may be coming from (looking for suspicions of people, followed by seeing who's killed by SK's later on), Steel has stated (or at least heavily implied) that that would be his strategy. That, precisely, is what is making that strategy not work, as it creates an IKYK situation where SK's would refrain from telling the truth about who they are suspicious about. Taking that into account, Steel's PM hunt now looks less like a benevolent attempt to track down SK's and more like demanding information, which I don't like.

Conclusions?

Mostly, what raises red flags about Steel is his tone (of trying to order around the village), his vote on Rae and his failure to retract it, his proposal of him being the only one to try to hunt down SK's, and him demanding information out of PM's. @Steeldancer, would you like to defend yourself about any of this? For now I'll vote on you. Steel. There's a few other players that I'd like to look into this round, namely Elandera and Mailliw, but I'll handle that in a later post I guess.

 

[Straw]

Analysis time!

Steel:

Spoiler

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As I didn’t end up as a serial killer, my killer instincts have turned entirely to focusing on who they could actually be. So, that’s likely what most of my analysis will be- whether people could be the serial killer. Can’t let someone else upstage me, no matter how petty that might be. 

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You use me. As I said, I'll be focusing my efforts on finding the SK this game. I'll let others do the analysis attempting to figure out who the eliminators are. I've already started trying to figure out what I would do if I were an SK. Granted, I didn't play with a fellow serial killer last time, but I HAVE played with an SK partner before, if you remember LG45 (or whatever the Elantris one was). So I know how to do that too. Ironically now I'm playing the part of Seonid, my nemesis... well whatever. Right now, I have nothing to work with. If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious. However, I won't have anything hard to work with until the first sk kill occurs. Because whoever the sk kills, they were suspicious of. Then, I group people based on whether they expressed suspicion on them at some point, and whether they did not. Then I work from there, identifying patterns and whatnot. Obviously, it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express suspicion on publically. Hopefully by narrowing this down, we can determine who zane is, and from there Vin is much easier to deal with. 
There's also the matter of what a serial killer claims as, Zane is likely to claim as a thug if not forced into a situation where he is publically forced to use a different power. Vin... well, I'm not sure. Vin will probably be the harder of the two to pin down in my opinion, but is just less threatening.

 

While Steel does have expertise in the area of the Mistborn, he seems overly fixated on them. I'd appreciate if he gave us some idea of his elim reads, thus allowing people to better analyze him.

Spoiler

Quote

Ok, let's DO this thing. Deep analysis of day one, begins here. So, who first voted on Bard? Rae did. CadCom did in quick succession. Elandera, Rathmaskal, and that's it. So Rae, CadCom, Elandera, and Rathmaskal are top suspicion in terms of being suspicious of Bard based on votes. Stink also seems to express some suspicion on Young Bard during the night, regarding his thoughts on Coop. Alright then. 
Zane might not necessarily be someone who expressed suspicion or voted on Bard, however. In fact, I'm rather inclined to think they're not. With so few people expressing true suspicion on Bard, murdering Bard seems more a move to make without revealing in thread your suspicion of them. Even more interesting is the fact that for one reason or another, Zane didn't kill Lumgol for being a Tineye 2. I would have thought Zane or the elims would have offed her. @Lumgol please do us all a favor, and prove for the second turn in a row that you are a Tineye 2, and not Vin. Could you vote on Coop, to see if he's an unusual role or something? That could be helpful. 
Now, pretty much anyone could have just not expressed their suspicion of Bard in thread. So I'm going to request, if anyone knows of anyone expressing suspicion of Bard in PMs, could you reveal so in thread? Could help open up more possibilities. For now, I'm going to vote on Rae. @Arraenae you vocalized pro-mistborn arguments during Day 1, were the first to vote on Bard, and then Bard was (probably) murdered by Zane. What have ye to say for yourself? 

Quote

What

the 

heck

my leaving my vote on Rae was NOT an open invitation to lynch her! I didn’t intend to get her lynched? I point the finger of suspicion at each individual who thought it was a good idea to lynch her. I’m really kind of pissed off right now. Why’d you think that was a smart lynch?! 

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Ok clearly I was up too late last night, because everything is more dramatic with me when it's late at night... anyway I'm not really mad about Rae being lynched, just kind of annoyed. I fail to see how it was a smart lynch at all. My vote was even pointed out as having flaws in it, which were purposeful. So, if it didn't make sense that she would necessarily be a serial killer, and if there wasn't really anything indicating she was elim either (at least nothing I noticed, or nothing that anyone pointed out when voting on her) why did you lynch her exactly?

 

This seems like an attempt by Steel to distance himself from the results of the lynch. He wrote a "deep analysis" post about how Rae should be lynched, and then claims that it was a bad lynch. In addition, saying that you put flaws in your argument on purpose is pretty suspicious behavior.

One other thing that I noticed was that Steel has been sending PMs to people asking for lists of suspicions. I'm a little confused about why that kind of discussion shouldn't happen in the thread, where everyone can see it, argue with it, and analyze it.

Steeldancer

[Steeldancer]

First off, I concede my wording of the PMs comes off a lot more demanding that I intended it too. I didn’t mean to be like that, as evidenced by the individuals who said they couldn’t get around to it immeadietly like @Cadmium Compounder Who was busy with work. 

Look if you want to look for the SKs go ahead. But I am objectively the one best suited for the task. Inner rage, history, obsessive tendencies. That’s probably what’s come across in thread. In LG41 I had a document to pour my obsessive tendencies into. Here, I only have the thread, again because I’m not an elim either and I don’t have a doc to pour that into. 

And I will note AGAIN there was no Rae lynch even at my break, as I showed in my last post. All that happened after. My extreme annoyance at Rae’s lynch, well why would I feel that way if I were an elim? The win condition if the elims is to kill the villagers. Surely I’d be pretty happy about losing the powerful role of the Librarian. 

I’m not asking you to trust me because I’m seeking the SK. I’d be doing that whether elim or village. But I would never have claimed to Mailliw, never would have reacted to Rae’s lynch the way I did, nor would I pour my pure frustration into the thread simply because I have no other outlet for my questionable focus on Zane. 

If you lynch me just realize you’re losing your best asset at killing Zane. I can’t share my methodology because I’m approaching it the same way I approached being the serial killer- one day at a time. I haven’t done my analysis today because I wasted most of today playing Shovel knight and then when I actually started doing it my mom asked me so to stuff, as per usual. I will get it done and share it in thread. 

Straw I had to ask each individual to share their suspicions. I wasn’t going to do that in thread because that compromises it not being based on anyone else. It shows what they have to say. There’s nothing stopping people from sharing their suspicions in thread. I just went out of my way to ask each person. 

Yeah, now I’m getting frustrated. I’m going to go see a movie now. So l won’t be back until tomorrow. And I have an extremely long shift tomorrow. I probably won’t be on much. 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Steeldancer

[+Ark1002]

Can't really plat today, so i'll post evaluations tommorow

[Mailliw73]

I’m interested in how Rath’s defense was only to push more on straw. But my entire point in voting on him was to add pressure to see how he reacts. I’m not satisfied with how it went, but as everyone knows from PMs, Steel has been my main suspicion and is who I planned on voting for today. 

Elandera has covered the Smoking-situation, so I’ll leave that alone. I concur with her as we discussed that at night. Yes, Steel did share his Smoking targets after each day. 

D1, when I reread the thread, I realize how off Steel was being. I can’t place it, but I’m beginning to feel out his elim style (I think, watch him prove me wrong next game) and D1 he was my best lead. 

Then the whole Rae-escapade happened, and him not being around does not mean that he couldn’t have had teammates on board with the plan to vote on Rae later in the day. 

His fixation on the Mistborn is excessive, but I do understand his fascination with it, having been an SK multiple times. Steel, you are by no means our “objectively best tool” to find them. You’re the best tool for finding yourself as a serial killer, but that’s the only one you have experience with. You’re no better a tool for finding an SK than you are for finding the elims, since you’ve been both. There is no SK manual that anyone has to follow. And, you’ve made it to D3 with very little to show aside from a (in your words, inadequate) vote on Rae. 

Steel has also never really shared much in the way of suspicions, at least in my pm with him, or what I’ve seen of him in the thread. 

Between all of that, in addition to what everyone else has posted, I believe Steel is the best option for a lynch and that tomorrow, Rath or Coop would be, depending on Steel’s alignment. 

[Rathmaskal]

4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’m interested in how Rath’s defense was only to push more on straw. But my entire point in voting on him was to add pressure to see how he reacts. I’m not satisfied with how it went...

I'm still not entirely sure what the suspicion on me is for.  So I'm trying to make sure people know where my suspicions lie in the event that I'm lynched (and at that point, it definitely looked like it was going to me...now, not so much...although there's still another day left in this cycle).  I believe some people would refer to that as a 'will' of sorts?  (I actually really enjoyed keeping up with Fura's championship match and seeing how people from other sites play...that's where I'm pulling that term.)

[Straw]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

My extreme annoyance at Rae’s lynch, well why would I feel that way if I were an elim? The win condition if the elims is to kill the villagers. Surely I’d be pretty happy about losing the powerful role of the Librarian.  

As I said previously, your post reads like an attempt to distance yourself from the lynch. If you were an eliminator, you'd be happy that the Librarian got lynched, but you'd also want to try to disassociate yourself from a lynch on a powerful village role. That way, you can stop people from using it as evidence for lynching you, and redirect suspicion onto other people who participated in the lynch. You already partially did this by saying that "I point the finger of suspicion at each individual who thought it was a good idea to lynch her."

Quote

My vote was even pointed out as having flaws in it, which were purposeful.

In addition, you still haven't addressed the fact that you purposefully inserted flaws into your argument for lynching Rae. In my opinion, that's one of the best arguments for lynching you.

[Furamirionind]

@Cadmium Compounder you said you can prove your role if you were left alive one more cycle. Please prove your role?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 hours ago, Elandera said:

With some nighttime PMs, I was able to obtain information that Steel was the one who likely Smoked Coop. This throws up a lot of red flags for me, especially since Xino flipped as a Smoker 1. While it's possible there are multiple roles among the village, I can also see this role as having one each side along with the random chance Vin can draw it. Having more than 3 people any given turn that can smoke is a bit OP.

What other roles do you think are no longer possessed by villagers among Soother 2, Thug 1, Smoker 2, Seeker 1, Seeker 2, and Rioter 2, given that the Mistborn have access to all those powers except for Rioter 2?

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

This is the first post after my break. I will note at this point CadCom was still the dominating lynch. There were 4 votes on CadCom, while CadCom had voted on Rae in self defense. And if you go up, going back in time, the first votes you see on CadCom are first HH, and then Coop. And that's why I selected the people I did. 

How long was your break? If you had enough time to read the thread and choose targets to smoke with the intention of ensuring a CadCom lynch, did you have time to place a vote on CadCom yourself? There shouldn't have been any reason to keep your vote on Rae if you preferred a Cadcom lynch.

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Sorry if that was confusing. I'm saying Coop was Smoked and Lum was Soothed. With the knowledge Coop was Smoked, I believe Lum was Soothed to prevent an alignment read on Coop, rather than an alignment read on Mailliw. With the information Steel was the one to Smoke Coop, it means either that they are a team, or that someone is trying to frame Coop. Either way, it suggests Steel has an anti-village alignment of some kind.

If Coop and Steel are on the same team and the Soothe on Lum was intended to protect Coop, then either we have a Vin!Steel who foolishly claimed a role he wouldn't be able to consistently prove, or we have an elim team including both a Smoker 1 and a Soother 1. Even though I doubt the elims have much in the way of vote manipulation, to the extent that I would consider a Rioter 1 overpowered on a team of four elims, it's still more likely that Coop and Steel would be elims together than Mistborn. I could also see an elim!Steel, without anything better to do with his day action, smoking people he wasn't on a team with in the hopes that someone would manipulate their vote.

On a related note Elandera, would you kindly Riot someone's vote today to prove you're not a Soother without wasting a Tineye 2 or a Seeker 1? I'm assuming from the silence that if Mailliw was Seeked last night, he wasn't observed doing anything suspicious like burning steel, which may be because we have no village Seeker 1s left.

[Elandera]

45 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

What other roles do you think are no longer possessed by villagers among Soother 2, Thug 1, Smoker 2, Seeker 1, Seeker 2, and Rioter 2, given that the Mistborn have access to all those powers except for Rioter 2?

I'm not sure, actually. I haven't done any in-depth analysis of the roles and possible distributions. I'll try to get around to that sometime tomorrow, if I can't tonight.

47 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

On a related note Elandera, would you kindly Riot someone's vote today to prove you're not a Soother without wasting a Tineye 2 or a Seeker 1? I'm assuming from the silence that if Mailliw was Seeked last night, he wasn't observed doing anything suspicious like burning steel, which may be because we have no village Seeker 1s left.

Definitely. I'll post in thread close to the end of cycle who I'm moving and who the new target is. I don't want to say too early in case some Smoker tries to interfere.

[Steeldancer]

I swear I’ve explained my vote on Rae like 10 times now. It was to gather information. Not to lynch her. I only had a 15 minute break that day, and generally I also need to eat during that time. So I showed you I picked the easiest people to cloud on the major vote and then probably checked discord and ate the rest of the time. SE doesn’t own my break. When I say I’m not going to be on, I’m not going to be. I didn’t change my vote because I didn’t see much point in voting on CadCom, and well what else was I supposed to do? 

I also am completely blanking on why people think a steel coop elim team is a thing. What.... where is that even coming from? I clouded his vote because it was convenient! Why don’t you just look at the post where I show you the timing and LOOK? 

Alright. If you really want to know what I have, I have 4 names I've narrowed it down to. 
Stick, Snipexe, Elandera, and maybe Straw. Mailliw if I'm being paranoid. That's 5 names. But it's what I have to offer. I haven't voted on them because I'm not done yet. My work remains incomplete. If you waited a single more cycle to let me finish, I could narrow it down to one name. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Steeldancer
I can’t count.

[Lumgol]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

I swear I’ve explained my vote on Rae like 10 times now. It was to gather information. Not to lynch her.

We've read your explanations. If we're still suspecting you for that vote, that probably means your explanations didn't do much to convince people.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Lumgol

[CadCom]

4 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@Cadmium Compounder you said you can prove your role if you were left alive one more cycle. Please prove your role?

I also asked someone to scan me. I performed an action specifically so someone could scan me. Did anyone scan me?

Edit: I'm actually starting to suspect steel (and, by association, Coop)less and less. I hope I'll be able to explain it (and analyze it)early-ish tomorrow morning to determine if I want to change my vote. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Mailliw73]

1 minute ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I also asked someone to scan me. I performed an action specifically so someone could scan me. Did anyone scan me?

...no offense, but I mean, just about anyone could be “proven” by being scanned. 

[Furamirionind]

@Cadmium Compounder I seriously doubt anyone will publically claim they scanned you.

I also know you didnt take the action I asked you to do last cycle. I guessed your role In our PM, was i correct or not?

Edit: nevermind. I was wrong.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Furamirionind

[CadCom]

Correct. You were incorrect. 

Aaaand, I just realized that I'm camping this weekend, and I just checked a coverage mp for my phone provider, it looks like I wont even have service, let alone 3 or 4 G. I will try to get on tonight to submit an action, but I doubt I'll be able to.

[Steeldancer]

7 hours ago, Lumgol said:

We've read your explanations. If we're still suspecting you for that vote, that probably means your explanations didn't do much to convince people.

Fine then. Lynch me. rath  Steel . Clearly I must be the best option to kill, even though my behavior makes absolutely no sense as an eliminator. I’m a way better player than this, why would I be so honest and blatant with how I feel about things? 

Well anyway I won’t be around whatsoever today. I have a 7 hour shift, and it’s not going to be fun. I guess this is more or less my last game I’ll play for 2 years. Fitting I die before I manage to whittle down the final names. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Elandera]

I'll be gone for the first half of this turn, since I'll (hopefully) be sleeping. Nightshift problems.

Anyway, I figured it would be good to get a vote count on the board to make sure we know where we're going as we start getting into discussions.

Straw (1) - Rath
Rath (1) - HH
Steel (6) - Ela, Coop, Stick, Lum, Straw, Maill, Steel
Coop (1) - CadCom

@Lumgol, if the lynch on Steel doesn't change, I'd suggest moving your vote to someone to get a scan result. As much as having a solid lynch lead is good, your scan is more useful when the person lives.

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Fine then. Lynch me. rath  Steel . Clearly I must be the best option to kill, even though my behavior makes absolutely no sense as an eliminator. I’m a way better player than this, why would I be so honest and blatant with how I feel about things? 

Well anyway I won’t be around whatsoever today. I have a 7 hour shift, and it’s not going to be fun. I guess this is more or less my last game I’ll play for 2 years. Fitting I die before I manage to whittle down the final names. 

Steel! Don't go! I haven't done my analysis of you that I want to do! It's possibly condemning, but it's also possibly going to be saving! (Except getting 6 people to remove their votes sounds relatively difficult.)(Unless my evidence is foolproof.) Anyway, I'm beginning that analysis now.

Also, Don't worry, It sounds like the dead doc this game still will give you a chance to help us figure this out! You will just have to speak through Joe.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

@Lumgol, if the lynch on Steel doesn't change, I'd suggest moving your vote to someone to get a scan result. As much as having a solid lynch lead is good, your scan is more useful when the person lives.

May I suggest me as an option? 

[Steeldancer]

If I'm going to die, I'm going to take one final stab at this. 
Elandera claims to be a rioter, an interesting claim, as Zane cannot use any form of rioting. And truly, the only way she could have known to ask about Coops clouding would be if she had attempted to manipulate his vote in some manner. As zane, she conceivably could have done that by soothing his vote, but why would she do that if she were Zane? It makes no sense. 
If I lower Straw's probability of being the mistborn because his activity doesn't fit it, and assume Mailliw really was framed by the mistborn, that leaves only two people of my main suspicions. I will note there are others who could still be the mistborn I didn't list because I feel like they don't fit the bill, like Rath and Ark. Snipexe and Stick. 
Alright then. Snipexe was suspicious in my PM, blatantly asking me if I was an eliminator. And he never actually sent me a list of suspicions. I replied no, because I'm not an eliminator, if I were an eliminator I would have played this game a lot more ideally. But asking that... while Zane might do that, it just doesn't feel... right? Why would anyone ever answer "yes" to that question, even if they actually were an eliminator? 
That whittles it down to Stick. A lot of assumptions were made in the making of this conclusion, and it very well might be wrong because I don't have the additional cycle I need to pare it down all the way. But in a way, it feels right. Stick voted on me for the most fragile reason in thread (which I showed was completely incorrect). And of course Zane would want to be rid of me. Snipexe hasn't even voted yet. So yeah, Stick. I think you're Zane. I don't have the time to gather the evidence I need to pin you down as such, but it's what I suspect. 
Oh and look at that. When I cross reference this with my PM with stick, guess who she suspected? Xino. And she was also quite hedgey regarding guessing at who the mistborn is, saying something along the lines of "Oh they'll look really village in thread."
I think I've got it on the button. Oh of course Stick will deny it, it's only the rational thing to do. But I think I've got you pinned. And if I'm wrong, well it's only a matter of time before the real one gets shot dead in the water by the assassin or something. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Rathmaskal]

42 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

I will note there are others who could still be the mistborn I didn't list because I feel like they don't fit the bill, like Rath and Ark.

I guess I'm not intimidating enough?  Haha.

So, I'm trying to get on the Steel bandwagon, but I'm just not there with everyone else.  Honestly, I think Steel has been channeling his RP character a bit too much and the tone has been putting people off as much as anything.  (Not actually RPing, but I think you get what I mean.)  It's the same reason why I trusted Maill last QF, Steel just seems a bit too...genuine? throughout this game.  I'll try to read through Steel's posts (there are quite a few of them) to see if I'm missing something.

I'm not expecting this post to change anyone's vote necessarily, more explaining why I'm not on the train at this point since I know people are going to come at me if I'm wrong here since, obviously, I have been active enough to change my vote if I thought it was a valid change.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Rathmaskal
Emphasis

[Stick.]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Stick voted on me for the most fragile reason in thread (which I showed was completely incorrect).

That was just something I felt the need to point out. Did it add to my suspicion? Yes. I already expressed my thoughts on you and your vote on Rae last night in-thread, plus, Elandera makes a very convincing case. That’s mostly what made me drop the Rath lynch for the time being. Now I’m not saying I completely trust Elandera, but whichever way you flip will be useful in providing info on that. Regardless of the info gain though, as of now I am quite convinced that you are either an elim or Mistborn. 

And of course, while you have said that my ‘reason’ is incorrect, you haven’t really proved it so...

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

When I cross reference this with my PM with stick, guess who she suspected? Xino.

Yeah...and I did so in-thread as well. Couple of times in various PMs as well if I recall correctly. And I’m pretty sure I wasn’t the only one expressing suspicion of them. But how does that mean that I’m Zane? Wouldn’t Zane be better off lying about his suspicions in thread so that suspicion doesn’t fall on him when he, idk, kills the very people he publicly expressed suspicion of? Anybody could’ve killed Xino. 

There isn’t really much I can say in defense to your case but there you go.

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Oh of course Stick will deny it, it's only the rational thing to do.

Oh no...Did I just prove you right but denying it??:P 

Edited May 24, 2019 by _Stick_

[Mailliw73]

To that one person again: definitely L. To confirm you understand please use the last word in the last PM that was exchanged in your next post.

Concerning Steel’s genuineness, I think that after the QF, it became obvious that the frustration rant was one of his village tells so he’s trying to incorporate it now. Also, there’s real frustration in it because, being Steel, Zane was always going to be his main goal, regardless of alignment, and he hasn’t caught him yet.