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Long Game 55: Disquiet

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Lumgol

Lumgol

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1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

So, @Devotary of Spontaneity And @Lumgol, I do hope you realize that this is what you did to the village last LG. The votes are split enough currently that we could lose this game right now.

In my scenario, it would be a waste of a vote if I vote for the same person who is lynched. So I'll stick to voting Maill; however, I do agree with this and I encourage anyone who hasn't voted or has voted for someone with just 1 or 2 votes on them to consolidate onto someone with more votes on them.

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Fifth Scholar
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That is the cycle. No votes will be counted after this post.  LG55: Night 0 A Divine Image Ford swung his blade downward at the hand of his assailant. Faced veiled in shadow thanks to t

STINK
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A Letter Detailing That Which Should Be Detailed, And Also That Which Should Not Document authored by Jumae II Edited by Jumae II Written by Jumae II   If you are reading this

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Jastes Lekal took one last look at the smouldering ruins of his home. Family gathered around him, he peered between the lightly falling flakes of ash, as the skaa rebels began to plunder the fire-ridd

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Furamirionind

Furamirionind

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I want to let CadCom try to prove his role, but I am conflicted about anyone else. And it is better to let CadCom die than risk a CFD on Fifth. Rae is a possible SK, though I am not more confident about her than a random person.

I like that post by Maill.

3 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

In my scenario, it would be a waste of a vote if I vote for the same person who is lynched. So I'll stick to voting Maill; however, I do agree with this and I encourage anyone who hasn't voted or has voted for someone with just 1 or 2 votes on them to consolidate onto someone with more votes on them.

It is a waste, but if it is between wasting an action, or losing the game for the village, which would you pick. : P

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Mailliw73

Mailliw73

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

In my scenario, it would be a waste of a vote if I vote for the same person who is lynched. So I'll stick to voting Maill; however, I do agree with this and I encourage anyone who hasn't voted or has voted for someone with just 1 or 2 votes on them to consolidate onto someone with more votes on them.

Agreed. Obviously it’s more ideal for you to get results back and we have a lynch that a good percentage agrees on. Ultimately though, not losing is more important than you getting a result. I’d at least encourage you to be on close to rollover to change if necessary. (Ninja’d by Fura) 

These last couple games have taught me so much paranoia that I’m worried none of our lynch targets are even evil. CadCom is giving me more of a village vibe as the day goes on, I don’t see the case against Rae, and Coop just showed up. 

I’d like to vote for HH or Rath, but I also won’t let the elims bandwagon on Elend. If anyone is willing to change with me, I’m open to do that. 

Edited by Mailliw73
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CadCom

CadCom

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3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’d like to vote for HH or Rath, but I also won’t let the Mellon’s bandwagon on Elend. If anyone is willing to change with me, I’m open to do that. 

Hehe...

...Mellons...

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Elandera

Elandera

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9 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’d like to vote for HH or Rath, but I also won’t let the elims bandwagon on Elend. If anyone is willing to change with me, I’m open to do that.

I might be willing to change. What's the reasoning for Rath or HH?

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Mailliw73

Mailliw73

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Just now, Elandera said:

I might be willing to change. What's the reasoning for Rath or HH?

Honestly, most of my votes are based off gut reads that i have to then go back to in order to find the reasons why. Considering the length of time it took me to do so yesterday, I won't be doing it today. HH had a weird 180 switch off of Araris which he explained to me as just coming to understand the lynch better. Rath, I'm less suspicious of, but he'd be another I'd be okay lynching. 

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Mailliw73

Mailliw73

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Rae.

Any reason here? The only one I've seen so far is that she voted Bard and Bard was killed. 

I'd also be open to a Xino lynch. 

Edited by Mailliw73
:ph34r: stick
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Elandera

Elandera

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15 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Honestly, most of my votes are based off gut reads that i have to then go back to in order to find the reasons why. Considering the length of time it took me to do so yesterday, I won't be doing it today. HH had a weird 180 switch off of Araris which he explained to me as just coming to understand the lynch better. Rath, I'm less suspicious of, but he'd be another I'd be okay lynching. 

So, logistically, Rath would be the option since they already have a vote on them. However, I don't see any more reason for a Rath lynch than a Rae lynch.

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Devotary of Spontaneity

Devotary of Spontaneity

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19 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

So my role doesnt necessarily prove my alignment, but I think my role is more likely to be associated with the village than the elim or SK team. At the very least, if I'm proved false, I can be lynched next cycle.  A tineye would work too.

Hmm. Seeker 1 can't distinguish between the forms of metals, so if they saw you burning steel there would be no way to tell whether you were Zane or a Coinshot 2. We can rule out the metals Vin and/or Zane has access to, so that leaves Zinc as the only option. Rioter 1 seems powerful on an elim team for purposes of lynching Elend, but Rioter 2 isn't out of the question for an elim. If you are a Coinshot 2 and misunderstood the rules, the only thing you have to fear from claiming is that Zane dies early and the Assassin decides to spend their super-kill on you. Rioter 1 can be used to save yourself. Rioter 2 can probably be worked out in PMs.

22 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’d like to vote for HH or Rath, but I also won’t let the elims bandwagon on Elend. If anyone is willing to change with me, I’m open to do that. 

I think we could work it out so we move the lynch onto someone else, but leave Lum voting on CadCom to check out his role more accurately than a seeker could. The main way I see CadCom and Lum being on the same evil team is if they're Zane and Vin respectively, and I don't think that's likely as CadCom would have to fake Coinshot 2 or Rioter for the rest of the game.

1 minute ago, Mailliw73 said:

Any reason here? The only one I've seen so far is that she voted Bard and Bard was killed. 

Rae was flagged as a Mistborn suspect for saying that we should go after the elims first and keep the Mistborn as a lower priority. Araris being a villager has made the 'evil players will go after the other evil team' theory a bit less likely, but it's still a possibility.

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Mailliw73

Mailliw73

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2 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I think we could work it out so we move the lynch onto someone else, but leave Lum voting on CadCom to check out his role more accurately than a seeker could. The main way I see CadCom and Lum being on the same evil team is if they're Zane and Vin respectively, and I don't think that's likely as CadCom would have to fake Coinshot 2 or Rioter for the rest of the game.

Rae was flagged as a Mistborn suspect for saying that we should go after the elims first and keep the Mistborn as a lower priority. Araris being a villager has made the 'evil players will go after the other evil team' theory a bit less likely, but it's still a possibility.

I like this post a lot. Devotary, you're brilliant. :P

I guess. I've never thought that was a useful way to guess alignment. At different times in the game, certain elims are more important than others. But we can still search for them all. 

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Rathmaskal

Rathmaskal

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Posted

So, first off, as it's gotten closer to rollover, I've had to shorten a bit of my analysis, so please excuse the brevity.  I'm trying to get down my thoughts for people as I go through the first couple cycles.  So, the order is just the order in which something popped into my head as I was reading through the cycle.  Also, this kind of stops at the end of D1.

Stick    - D1 noted that it would be nice to just lynch an inactive player.  Although I see how this would stall the elim wincon, this doesn't seem very productive.  The question about the Vin/Zane PM could be an attempt to derp clear (I wasn't aware of that term prior to keeping track of Fura's championship match...so hopefully that's understood)  Voting on Araris because Bard seemed TWTBAW...that's about as good a reason as I had for voting on Bard.  Not a fan of that either.

Maill    - I'm not sold on using RP to justify different thought processes.  Once he started playing with less RP, things have been a bit better, but that may have been designed to cover up a slip?  Late vote on Steel D1.  At this point, we needed to start looking for a lynch train.

Lumgol    - As with Rand early game, I think people are jumping on an idea a bit too harshly.  The roleclaim is definitely bold.  I'm curious why Lum is still alive after that...or if we can expect to no longer see Lum after tonight.  Just seems like a tough role for the elims to leave out there unless they just think Lum is completely barking up the wrong tree.

CadCom     - been under suspicion a decent amount.  "...there's nothing that I can do on D1 to disprove it..." falls in line with CadCom's most recent post about being able to prove village alignment if left alive today.  I'm curious what might be possible there.  I don't recall anything from the rules that would allow specifically a N2 role claim or anything like that.  (I'd be curious what the timeline is regarding that...)
    - Brought up that Joe could be Hoid as well.  That could be interesting.  I don't think we've discussed that possbility much.  At this point, I don't think it's worth it to dwell on Joe much more until we have more information.
    - Follows Rae close enough that I would say it's rather unlikely that the two of them are knowingly working together (verbiage deliberate - it could be village/village...and they'd obviously be working together...but not know it)

Steel    - volunteering to be the Mistborn hunter...  Offers some insight into the mind of someone in the SK role.  (Araris later shoots down the idea that Zane and/or Vin are really SK role...I agree with that)  Later seems stuck on the Araris response...

Rae    - The initial vote on Araris seems sloppy...  Pushes against Joe vote due to Secret History reasons...and turns around onto Bard.  Haven't gotten much out of Rae...but given that the D1 lynch was v/v, it's easy for an elim to just chill.

Elandera    - Early on at least I'm concerned with the low activity level.  Not used to seeing this.

Devotary    - Calling out Lum and Steel for trying to focus on the Mistborn rather than the elims is good.  Also brings up that Joe may be Preservation...curious how that would work out.  Lum's scan was obviously to the contrary.  Comments on the need for Lum to prove Tineye 2 multiple times in order to prove not Vin...good point.  Another person who kind of jumped on Araris, although not as harshly...  The not as harshly aspect is actually kind of interesting...could be a bit of hedging.

Fura    - Very harsh on Araris D1.  Kind of gets that wagon going.

Straw    - So, I've been kind of writing down thoughts as I reread through everything and I get to Straw's post here:
https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85159-long-game-55-disquiet/?do=findComment&comment=869514
The whole "I've read through all of the posts so far, and not that much has stood out" thing reads a bit wrong to me.  I feel like a similar post to that is kind of what sunk Steel in the last QF...  I've gotten at least one thought on everyone listed above prior to getting to this post.  Definitely the most...off...thing I've seen so far.

HH    - The rationale for the Araris vote...not buying it...

Ok, I'm seeing some good points on the Coop train.  I hadn't quite put the 2 and 2 together of Coop claiming Lum was evil.  Right now, Straw is seeming like my strongest candidate to take a peek into actually, but I'm going to have to go with someone already getting trained on.

Current votes:

  • Maill (2) - STINK, Lum
  • Rae (5) - Steel, CadCom, Elandera, xino, Rath
  • Coop (1) - Lum-, Rath, CadCom-, Straw
  • CadCom (4) - Maill, Fura, Coop, HH
  • Rath (1) - Stick

OK, there have been about 400 ninjas during this post, even as I'm trying to get some last minute notes here after copying over from my notebook....*sigh*

Rae

CadCom has done a lot at this point, but I'm not sure anything holds enough to lynch him.

WHEW

And there's your vote count.

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Mailliw73

Mailliw73

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Posted (edited)

Maill (2) - STINK, Lum
Rae (5) - Steel, CadCom, Ela, Xino, Rath
Coop (1) - Straw
CadCom (3) - Fura, Coop, HH
Rath (1) - Stick

I'm not happy with my vote on CadCom and would like to officially support Devotary's idea. @Lumgol, thoughts?

Edited by Mailliw73
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Rathmaskal

Rathmaskal

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Oh, drat, that link didn't post very well...probably since I copied it twice...copy of a copy and such...but at least it links to the correct place.

Snip, xino, and Ark.  I know I didn't mention them at all...(there may be others?  unsure)  I specifically know I didn't mention them because every post of theirs was basically RP.  I will say that's a huge weakness of mine - I'm not great at reading through RP and understanding what people are actually saying.  I'm sure that makes me miss things on occasion...and if anyone wants to make sure I'm completely lost in a game, you have your ammunition...just make sure everyone RPs...lol

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