Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Steeldancer]

I’m working until after rollover so I won’t be back on. Just letting you know in advance. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Less than five hours to rollover. Please get all votes and actions in by then. 

[Furamirionind]

@Coop772 I currently think you may be the best lynch today as well, due to how much info we gain on Lum/Joe. Do you disagree?

Something interesting, is I think Joe's public message exactly mirrored what I was saying as to people. Suspect Bard/Maill, and Stink is smart. My message from this mists said that he was a red herring. Something I had suggested publicly.
In addition, Stink apparently got something that was anti-Maill. Something Stink had said several times.

Lumgol claims to have gotten something saying Coop is evil... Which Lum hasn't expressed thoughts about before. However, I can't really say this breaks the pattern, as 2 instances is not enough to define a pattern.

Today has really not had enough votes or thoughts from people on... anything really. I myself am partially to blame, but... If nothing else, we need to place votes! Here are all the people without placed votes: @Elandera, @Snipexe, @xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Arraenae, @Ark1002, @Cadmium Compounder, @Hemalurgic Headshot, @_Stick_, @Straw, @Adavantos, @Coop772

Rae - You said you were busy yesturday. I took that to mean you would have more time today? Care to make a vote?
Devotary - You have been around, where is your vote? Who is your biggest suspicion?
CadCom - You have posted a couple times. The first time you did some role analysis, but focused pretty hard on the dead roles. Did you know any of their roles before they died? Shouldn't our role analysis be focused on the living ones?  Your next post is focused on Joe. A topic that admittedly needs to be discussed, however it is less important than who you plan to vote for. Who do you plan to vote for?
Adavantos - You haven't been around much at all. Typically you are much more active.
Stick - You have also been around, I understand about your Wifi, but why didn't you tack a vote at the end of one of your previous posts?

Edit: Ninja'd by Fifth. (Thx Fifth : )  )

Edited May 21, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Stick - You have also been around, I understand about your Wifi, but why didn't you tack a vote at the end of one of your previous posts?

(I’m working on it - thanks for the reminder)

[CadCom]

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

CadCom - You have posted a couple times. The first time you did some role analysis, but focused pretty hard on the dead roles. Did you know any of their roles before they died? Shouldn't our role analysis be focused on the living ones?  Your next post is focused on Joe. A topic that admittedly needs to be discussed, however it is less important than who you plan to vote for. Who do you plan to vote for?

I am sorry, I have also been significantly less active than I would like to be. So the current people that I've thought about are Coop, Rae, adavantos, and steel.

With Coop, while I don't disagree that it will give us information, I am doubting that both the PMs as well as the Message in the write-up are both from Joe. It seems almost too much to give someone the ability to share a message both in thread, and in PMs. And it appears that whoever shared messages in PM has some degree of ability to make different PM's unique. This makes me wonder if we really will get much helpful information from the lynch, or if it'll just be a "Well, now we know we can't trust the messages"

Rae has simply had avote or two placed against him, and been on people's suspicion list. Admittedly, I didn't look that much into their posts, but to me, their posts seem to be relatively void of content. However, in one of their posts yesterday, they did mention that by today, they should be able to be more active, yet we still haven't heard much from them. 

Admittedly, the case I am forming against adavantos is based mostly on the emoji they put before it was discussed that the mistborn needs to put the emoji feature. That obviously isn't a strong argument, for reasons that I believe devotary brought up, and I haven't looked into the rest of their posts so far as of yet

My suspicion of steel isn't really a suspicion, but more of a "Keep your eye out" feeling. I just don't want to later be deceived by steel. 

Looking at the current vote count, and knowing that we need to have a somewhat general concensus on just one or two people. I really can't see myself voting on someone that isn't already on this list. I still need to look into Maill, and Stink, but since I haven't and I'm not sure If I'll have time to do so, I'll put my vote tentatively on Coop. I believe that I'll have time to at least get back on and help consolidate a lynch, so I am willing to move my vote to someone else 

• Maill (1) - STINK
• Rae (1) - Steel
• Coop (3) - Lum, Rath, CadCom
• CadCom (2) - Maill, Fura

[Coop772]

Ok finally found time to read through today and will read yesterday when this is out

I'm going to vote Cadcom to hopefully save my own skin, and my mistwishper told me that Lumgol serves Jastes Lekal. I would vote them, but again, would like to survive.

[Furamirionind]

Hmm, perhaps CadCom is correct in saying the PMs and the Thread communication are from differant players.

This makes me think perhaps Ruin in the game. Perhaps opposite Kelsier? Kill vin, keep Zane alive? Perhaps something else... but whoever they are, they are either trying to turn Lum and Coop agaisnt each other, or Lum/Coop are lying.  Currently I am inclined to think the former, but I need to look through the thread more thoroughly. Regardless, this communication is a big hint as to who this player is.

[CadCom]

1 minute ago, Coop772 said:

Ok finally found time to read through today and will read yesterday when this is out

I'm going to vote Cadcom to hopefully save my own skin, and my mistwishper told me that Lumgol serves Jastes Lekal. I would vote them, but again, would like to survive.

@Coop772 I understand where your vote is coming from. Until we have more information about the mistwhisperer, I think that we need to lynch someone that the mist has said is evil, which is different people everywhere. I don't particularly suspect you more than others, but I think you are the best to get information available. If you can build a case against someone else, I'll consider moving my vote to that person. 

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Thank you, CadCom, for making that vote count. I was about to make one myself, so thank you for sparing me the trouble.

Since both Rand and Bard have turned up village, I decided to take a look at D1, since both of them had suspicions cast upon them

Quote

Bard (4): Elandera, Rae, Rath, CadCom

Rand didn't have any votes on him when the Day ended, but I definitely remember that there was at least one vote on him at one point. I'm just too lazy to sort through all of the pages to find exactly who. 

Concerning the current lynch standings, why Coop? He only just posted this cycle. Both the tone and brevity of his first post indicate he was unable to post previously, so to suddenly turn on him is... a bit rude?

The thing here, though, is that currently Rath and CadCom have placed vote on Coop with very little evidence (but what evidence can you have against someone who has barely posted?). Interestingly, both of them voted on Bard. I'd like to make the conjecture that Rath and Cadcom are part of the Elims or are in the very least working contrary to the Village.

My reasoning for why the elims, or the Mistborn would be voting on Bard instead of bandwagoning on Araris is Bard's role. Thug 1 is a very powerful role for the village, thus when they failed to rouse a bandwagon against Bard, they instead offed him. And now they are going for the easy prey, Coop.

This is obviously rough, but its what I've got. So, CadCom.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Thank you, CadCom, for making that vote count. I was about to make one myself, so thank you for sparing me the trouble.

Since both Rand and Bard have turned up village, I decided to take a look at D1, since both of them had suspicions cast upon them

Rand didn't have any votes on him when the Day ended, but I definitely remember that there was at least one vote on him at one point. I'm just too lazy to sort through all of the pages to find exactly who. 

Concerning the current lynch standings, why Coop? He only just posted this cycle. Both the tone and brevity of his first post indicate he was unable to post previously, so to suddenly turn on him is... a bit rude?

The thing here, though, is that currently Rath and CadCom have placed vote on Coop with very little evidence (but what evidence can you have against someone who has barely posted?). Interestingly, both of them voted on Bard. I'd like to make the conjecture that Rath and Cadcom are part of the Elims or are in the very least working contrary to the Village.

My reasoning for why the elims, or the Mistborn would be voting on Bard instead of bandwagoning on Araris is Bard's role. Thug 1 is a very powerful role for the village, thus when they failed to rouse a bandwagon against Bard, they instead offed him. And now they are going for the easy prey, Coop.

This is obviously rough, but its what I've got. So, CadCom.

You say its rough, but the wording in your post sounds pretty confident to me. Do you think you just caught 2 elims?

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

You say its rough, but the wording in your post sounds pretty confident to me. Do you think you just caught 2 elims?

Perhaps, or even both Mistborn (unlikely, but possible). This simply relies on an Elim or Mistborn voting on Bard, having Tineye 2, then telling their compatriots and killing Bard.

[Coop772]

Well, I feel that the mistwhisper is *not* on our side, and by that I mean it's not on the villages side. Point one, playing me against lum. It introduces chaos and confusion, and turns town against town. Point two, I don't have one yet. 

[Furamirionind]

8 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

Well, I feel that the mistwhisper is *not* on our side, and by that I mean it's not on the villages side. Point one, playing me against lum. It introduces chaos and confusion, and turns town against town. Point two, I don't have one yet. 

Why do you say Lum is village?

[CadCom]

1 minute ago, Coop772 said:

Well, I feel that the mistwhisper is *not* on our side, and by that I mean it's not on the villages side. Point one, playing me against lum. It introduces chaos and confusion, and turns town against town. Point two, I don't have one yet. 

I agree, Coop. As of now, it seems mist is not on the villagers side. It appears that the lynch is consolidating against me. I don't know if I'll have another time to get back on, but I'll remove my vote from coop, so at to at least help consolidate a lynch. I dont feel comfortable voting for anyone else, except maybe adavantos, or rae. But I have small problems with both of those, so I'll hold off. Because Rae already has a vote, I'll vote for him. I promise I'll try to check later, even if it's while using the restroom.

Also, I believe I have a way to prove my village alignment tonight, if I am spared. 

If there are any Seeker 1s out there please either reach out to me or scan me tonight if I survive.

[Stick.]

I did analysis of each of Rath’s (5) posts :D- 

1. Does not want the elim hammer to happen. Torn on Rand's strategy. Poke votes Adavantos. Pretty NAI, all of that.
2. Takes away poke vote. Says that they will place an actual vote soon. Also very NAI.
3. Doesn't want to vote on joe. Considers the Araris and Bard lynch and decides to vote on Bard because they like what Araris was saying. Might change vote to Araris tho, if the votes end up being too close. This really seems like they're trying to remain in the middle ground and not take any firm stances.
4. Replies to Steel's suspicion of them by saying that they weren't really suspicious of Bard but only voted for him cuz they didn't like the Araris train. Promises to post analysis soon. I'm gonna say most of that is NAI
5. HUGE post about Joe. Votes for coop in the end to gain info about lum and joe. The joe part is very NAI, I think. As for the vote:

About the votes on coop, I don't know. I don't think it's a very good idea to do whatever creepy mist joe tells us to. It seems that the messages are creating chaos more than anything else rn.  Like coop said.

I'm going to vote for Rath. They didn't provide substantial reasoning for the vote on coop and to be honest the amount of NAI-ness in their posts makes me suspicious. 

21 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

Point two, I don't have one yet. 

Don’t have one of what?

14 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why do you say Lum is village?

Her claim makes her look really villager-y, ngl. The fact that she wasn’t NK’d is what’s making people sus of her, yes? Well, if I were an elim, I wouldn’t go for her immediately after the role claim. It’s very likely that she would have been protected by another villager through an agreement via PMs or smt over the night. 

[Straw]

I suppose that Coop is the best vote I can currently make. I don't really have any suspicions, and lynching Coop provides valuable information on Joe and Lum.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Straw said:

I suppose that Coop is the best vote I can currently make. I don't really have any suspicions, and lynching Coop provides valuable information on Joe and Lum.

Would you mind responding to Stick's thoughts on why not to vote on coop?

[Rathmaskal]

35 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm going to vote for Rath. They didn't provide substantial reasoning for the vote on coop and to be honest the amount of NAI-ness in their posts makes me suspicious. 

Disregarding the rest of your comments, I thought the rest of the post would be sufficient reasoning.  Oh well.  As for the NAI-ness.  Welcome to playing with me (Actually not sure if I've been in a game with you prior to this...maybe one of the anon ones I pinch hit in?)

(I'm working on my re-read of the first cycle right now btw and I'm out of meetings for the day.  Unfortunately I'm unlikely to get analysis out to swing the vote, but I will get something, as well as a more reasoned vote out)

[Straw]

36 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Would you mind responding to Stick's thoughts on why not to vote on coop?

Sorry, I didn't see that post.

40 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

About the votes on coop, I don't know. I don't think it's a very good idea to do whatever creepy mist joe tells us to. It seems that the messages are creating chaos more than anything else rn.  Like coop said.

While this is a valid argument, I still think that Coop is the best lynch available. Lynching Coop provides us with a large amount of information about Joe, Lumgol, and the mist whispers.

[Stick.]

Vote count:

• Maill (1) - STINK
• Rae (2) - Steel, CadCom
• Coop (3) - Lum, Rath, Straw
• CadCom (4) - Maill, Fura, Coop, HH
• Rath(1) - Stick

Edit:

Quote

Disregarding the rest of your comments, I thought the rest of the post would be sufficient reasoning.  Oh well.  As for the NAI-ness.  Welcome to playing with me  (Actually not sure if I've been in a game with you prior to this...maybe one of the anon ones I pinch hit in?)

I’ve played with you on multiple occasions before iirc  

Edited May 21, 2019 by _Stick_
.

[Elandera]

Why exactly are so many trusting Lum's word of what the voice in the mist claimed? I don't quite get it. While Coop may be evil in some way, there's really no valid argument against him. Here's the scenarios of what I think we might learn from a Coop lynch:

• Village flip:
  • Lum was lying (hard to verify)
  • Voice made a bad guess, since they're not likely omniscient
  • Voice was just making a ploy to see what would happen if Lum and Coop were set against each other
• Elim flip:
  • Voice made a good guess (again, not likely omniscient, otherwise it could easily break the game)

Either way, trusting the voice outright seems like a bad idea. Taking their claims and investigating might be good, especially if they have a connection to the dead, but trusting it outright seems like a recipe for disaster. It's part of why I think letting Lum leave her vote there to at least gain a role would be beneficial.

Regarding the lynch against CadCom, it's good to see him a bit more active. That seems to be the basis for a lot of the suspicion against him, so I have a difficult time just joining in on that bandwagon. 

I'm most curious about the possibility of Steel's claims that Rae might be one of the Mistborn.

Maill (1) - STINK
Rae (3) - Steel, CadCom, Ela
Coop (3) - Lum, Rath, Straw
CadCom (4) - Maill, Fura, Coop, HH
Rath (1) - Stick

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Perhaps, or even both Mistborn (unlikely, but possible). This simply relies on an Elim or Mistborn voting on Bard, having Tineye 2, then telling their compatriots and killing Bard.

The writeup heavily suggests that Bard was killed by a Mistborn, so your hypothesis would require one of Elandera, Rath, Rae, and CadCom to be Vin and have drawn Tineye 2. The initial vote wouldn't have been because of Bard's role, but the later kill would in your scenario. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

As of now, it seems mist is not on the villagers side. 

Also, I believe I have a way to prove my village alignment tonight, if I am spared. If there are any Seeker 1s out there please either reach out to me or scan me tonight if I survive.

With one message sent theoretically sent to Lum saying that Coop was an elim, and a second one sent to Coop saying that Lum was an elim, it does seem that the mistwhispers can't be trusted. There is absolutely no reason for someone who cared about killing elims to send those two messages, and I'm still struggling to see why they would send even one such message. I see them either both lying, and thus both evil together and doing a mutual bus for some strange reason. The alternative is they're telling the truth, and it's the mistwhisperer who is lying. Joe/Kelsier/whoever is doing the writeups, could you confirm whether or not you are the mistwhisperer? Perhaps have the writeup person and the mistwhisperer provide the same quote, in addition to any other information they wish to convery?

CadCom, unless you are a secret role of some sort(Seer?), there are no roles that can be detected by Seeker 1 and prove that you're a villager. Hazekiller isn't an allomantic action, and Librarian can only use one metal. At most, you would be able to prove that you aren't a Mistborn.

 

So let's see. If Coop is evil, it's probably not because the mistwhisperer said so. I don't see how CadCom hopes to prove his village alignment, but it might be useful to stick a Tineye 2 on him. I think that would be more valuable than checking Coop's role, but I'm not sure, and also having extra votes on CadCom would likely be fatal and possibly expose Tineyes. Perhaps not a good idea at this stage then. Rae is a pretty good Mistborn candidate, and HH provides a scenario in which it would make sense for Bard to be killed. I don't think that's particularly likely, as a Vin!Rae would only have a 1/6 chance of drawing Tineye 2 last cycle. I would like to hear back from CadCom before making my final vote, but it will likely be for either Rae or CadCom.

 

[Lumgol]

Guys. Coop isn't evil. Or if he is, then Kelsier (or whoever is sending the mist whispers) doesn't know that.

Look. The mistwhisper told me that Coop serves Jastes Lekal. The mistwhisper told Coop that I serve Jastes Lekal. I'll assume that Coop told the truth about what the mistwhisper said.

If we were both evil, we wouldn't have stated our mistwhispers in thread because there's no reason for us to frame each other.

If Coop is evil and I'm not: This is a somewhat more plausible situation. By stating the contents of his mistwhisper, Coop makes the claim against him seem less legitimate and more like something that intends to troll us and turn us against each other. However, stating that I'm evil is a very weak counterclaim for the same exact reason.

If Kelsier knows both of our alignments, there's no way he'd send those mistwhispers to both of us, since at least one of us would know the other's alignment in that situation. So, here are my conclusions:

1) The mistwhispers cannot be trusted

2) Kelsier probably doesn't know our alignments, and if he knew our alignments, the most likely situation in that scenario is that Coop and I are both village

3) Since we've both shared our mistwhispers, at least one of us has to be village.

I kind of want to vote for Maill, since I definitely find his behavior kind of off, but then, one does not simply predict Maill. So I'm not sure. I haven't really thought much about CadCom, but the reasoning against him makes sense, so I might vote for him. Stink and Rath both seem village to me, Fura is probably neutral-village (solid analysis, and seems reasonably village in our PM but I'm not particularly confident either way). I need to take a closer look at HH, Rae, and Stick - both have been contributing a lot but I have pretty much no read on them. I think I'm going to vote Maill for now, but it's more of a scan-vote than an I-actually-want-this-person-lynched-now vote.

[Mailliw73]

So, @Devotary of Spontaneity And @Lumgol, I do hope you realize that this is what you did to the village last LG. The votes are split enough currently that we could lose this game right now. 

I really don’t see the case against Rae except she voted for Bard and Bard died. CadCom’s lynch has more behind it in addition to that. Coop was inactive so I feel like we should let him play the game for a bit. 

I’d say CadCom, Steel, and maybe HH are my highest suspicions, but Rath and devotary are climbing. 

[CadCom]

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

CadCom, unless you are a secret role of some sort(Seer?), there are no roles that can be detected by Seeker 1 and prove that you're a villager. Hazekiller isn't an allomantic action, and Librarian can only use one metal. At most, you would be able to prove that you aren't a Mistborn

So my role doesnt necessarily prove my alignment, but I think my role is more likely to be associated with the village than the elim or SK team. At the very least, if I'm proved false, I can be lynched next cycle.  A tineye would work too.