Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Furamirionind]

It's looking like today will be a busy day for me, so I may need to do most of my work tomorrow. But to start out, I am quite suspicious of CadCom.  Basically he has made 1 significant post so far.

The post starts out with a joke. And while I am willing to let most jokes slide, the subject of this joke is that it is "good" that there is one player that wont vote for him. This just isnt how this community thinks while village. Almost everyone puts the village over their own life, so a joke like this implies something a little out of place. Not a huge deal though.

The votecount CadCom posts is one from before he votes. This really isnt a big deal either. But this is a pet peeve of mine. It really bugs me when people dont include their own vote in the vote count, as it spreads misinformation about the lynch. I have made voting decisions in the past based on faulty info from posts like these. Again though, not a huge deal.

This last paragraph though, is what I find truly suspicious. First CadCom narrows down the voting options, saying we should only vote on people already with votes. Even though there was 36 hours left in the day at that point and not everyone had checked in yet.

Most of the last paragraph, seems like TMI. He is justifying the consolidation of the lynch, even though it has already been mentioned by several people... including himself in his second paragraph. So he is just repeating himself.

 After that he votes and Randuir and says, "call it a gut feeling". 

It seems to me the vote on Randuir was a random vote, but CadCom tried to cover up that fact by adding some psuedo-logic and calling it a gut vote.

This was 12 hours after the turn started, so a villager should have just cast a random vote and owned up to it. Idk why CadCom is hiding his here.

Something else of note, CadCom hasnt posted a significant game related post since Ada called his first post out.

Oh, hey Maill, you seem to have beaten me to the punch.

CadCom

[STINK]

39 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Another matter, Lady, is the issue of Jumae. He has called you out by claiming that the mists reject you. Now, I don't know what this means, but maybe he'd like to shed some light on the matter if a message was sent.

I write like nearly a whole paragraph about how since MM doesn't like you that much, I'm inclined to ease up on you and you summarise it as this?

This is like the second/third time you've just got the wrong thing now, Mailliw.

[Furamirionind]

9 minutes ago, STINK said:

I write like nearly a whole paragraph about how since MM doesn't like you that much, I'm inclined to ease up on you and you summarise it as this?

This is like the second/third time you've just got the wrong thing now, Mailliw.

I dont understand what you are saying Maill got wrong. I am pretty sure Maill was specifically asking about the PM from the mists you got. You said you got some anti-Maill stuff. 

[Mailliw73]

14 minutes ago, STINK said:

I write like nearly a whole paragraph about how since MM doesn't like you that much, I'm inclined to ease up on you and you summarise it as this?

This is like the second/third time you've just got the wrong thing now, Mailliw.

Again, because I’m using RP, some things get fudged a bit in summary just to make it easier to say. I get what you’re saying. Kinda. I’m not sure what you really suspect me for, so it’d be nice to have that cleared up, or reiterated if you’ve already said it and I missed it. But yeah, I get what the mists post was about, but Wylma isnt going to summarize the whole thing. 

[Rathmaskal]

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Ok, let's DO this thing. Deep analysis of day one, begins here. So, who first voted on Bard? Rae did. CadCom did in quick succession. Elandera, Rathmaskal, and that's it. So Rae, CadCom, Elandera, and Rathmaskal are top suspicion in terms of being suspicious of Bard based on votes. Stink also seems to express some suspicion on Young Bard during the night, regarding his thoughts on Coop. Alright then.

I guess I wasn't as clear as I thought when I posted since my vote on Bard has been brought up a couple times now.  I wasn't necessarily suspicious of Bard.  I mostly didn't like the train on Araris and Bard was the only other viable train at that point.  I thought Araris had been making some good points.

Sorry for the short post, I'll try to start working on some real analysis soonish.  I'm mostly keeping up with the thread, just don't have time to focus on it currently.

[Stick.]

16 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Fynn Seidel's soul wasn't broken enough to contain me. Needed someone more broken, someone who could truly hear me as more than a whisper. Needed to find a spiked. Who is spiked? Vin is, Zane is, is my kandra still with them? What about my brother, can I find him? If i can talk, I can protect Vin. Have to get her away from Zane, away from the servant of that dark god. Bring her back to Elend. Really, I need to get rid of Jastes as well. If she doesn’t have anything to live for, she’ll let him loose.

Wow. That's an info dump. 

Quote

I should probably follow Lethir, almost certain he works against Elend. Laila is lying as always, and Jumae the 2nd is being one of the smartest people I have seen since I died.

What? Well, Bard's now revealed as one of Elend's Loyalists. I wonder why Kelsier was 'almost certain' he was working against Elend. And what's Maill lying about? Why's STINK smart? I'm so confused. I guess I'll analyse Maill's and STINK's posts and see if anything stands out...

(The two posts below are from last night)

Quote

 Stink: Coop didn't respond to any of my PMs which made me sad

Did he read the PMs?

Quote

Around halfway through the cycle, Mailliw apparently knows like 5 roles including his, and I have no idea why so many people are claiming this apparently if his word is to be trusted. 

woah. no one even tried to mentioned role claim swaps in my pms. It's kinda sad.  Now that I'm reading this post, I think this might have been what Joe was referring to when he said jumae is saying smart things - your suspicion for Maill and Coop?

Quote

IT TOOK ME 2 YEARS TO REALISE MAILLIW IS WILLIAM BACKWARDS

:000000 No frickin way

10 hours ago, STINK said:

1. Kelsier is in the game, related to Mistborn somehow. (Not exactly confirmed but like what else would he do)

2. Kandra possibly in the game, secret role? (Kelsier specifically mentions the kandra in relation to the mistborn)

3. Marsh possibly in the game, another secret there. (Kelsier specifically mentions his brother, possibly RP but we'll presume not for now)

4. If we're really far-reaching, could be actual Jastes role as well (Doesn't seem likely but is mentioned)

1. Agreed

2. It says "is my kandra still with them?" could that mean that a Kandra is somehow spying (?) on Zane & Vin, or that it's aligned with them? Or could it mean that Kelsier isn't sure whether a Kandra even exists in this game? @Anybody that played the last game, was there a Kandra role?

3. Yeah, I don't think this is RP, considering how it mentions Fynn Seidel. This seems like Joe's communicating through the writeup, like Devotary said. 

4. It seems that Kelsier's wincon is centered around protecting Vin (and possibly eliminating Zane) and eliminating the Jastes Lekal's Subordinates (?)

10 hours ago, STINK said:

Adavantos is probably evil in some form too. 

Are you saying that bc he actually seems sus to you or did you get that in a message-from-the-mist thing?

15 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Mine said that Coop is evil.

Like Devotary said, I think that if Kelsier just knew who the elims were, wouldn't that make the game too easy for us? This is weird. Coop hasn't posted yet as Stink pointed out earlier, which makes me a little suspicious

16 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I have too few words for too many ears.

 

10 hours ago, STINK said:

As for if everyone got secret PMs, I'm gonna presume that everyone did as a fair few people instantly (within scope of game) claimed a few different ones

I think the above quote may suggest that everybody didn't receive one. Plus CadCom says they didn't get one.

Now, for the NKs.

The writeup heavily implies that the Bard kill was by the Mistborns so I'm assuming the Rand kill was the elims. Did Rand say something that prompted the elims to kill him? He voted on Rae, iirc. I wonder if that means anything, or if the elims just killed him to mislead our reads. I'll read his posts tomorrow and see what else I can find. And I find it odd that the Mistborn killed Bard...It wouldn't make sense unless Bard said stated something big that was threatening to the Mistborns in a PM that may have been with one of them. I struggle to see why they'd just kill him otherwise, because the top lynch candidates for D1 lynches are almost always village, right? 

Anyway, rereading this post I realise how little I've said but believe me this actually took me AN HOUR to type. I had to catch up on all the posts I missed from last night as well but still 1 hour is a lot.

[Furamirionind]

@_Stick_ CadCom said he misread his PM and did get the message asking if he was a mistborn.

Also, seriously who is roleclaiming to Maill? The subject didnt even come up in our PM... which I think is a first...

Did no one learn anything from LG54? Lol.

For the kill on Bard, that would be a strange kill for the elims to make, but I dont think it would be strange for the Mistborn depending on their strategy.  It could be, they targetted Bard in the Hope's we would suspect someone casting suspicion on Bard. 

In my PMs, Bard seems to be by far the most suspected person.  The only person I PMed (and talked about Bard with) who didnt suspect Bard was Lum.  I should also put Stink in that group though, as he didnt give me a real answer about Bard.

This site is super buggy on my phone right now. : /

[Mailliw73]

This one isn't going to be in character. 

I don't have 5 roleclaims. I have a couple, yes, but nothing crazy. I no longer play as the Maill in days of old. I only actually asked for a roleclaim from a single player. It's not my fault if people trust me. 

[Arrae]

5 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Accidentally quoted

@Steeldancer, I really don't have much to say in defense of myself. I know I'm not a Mistborn, and that's about it. I'm not an elim either. All you can do at this point is wait and hope I do more things that hint at my alignment.  I'll be available for analysis tomorrow, but I'm busy today.

[CadCom]

3 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wylma paced the room as she updated Lady Tourange. "You and Ford both expressed some suspicion of Lethir last night via messenger. And now Lethir is dead. Lady, you didn't kill him, did you?"

Laila looked furious with the Terriswoman for a moment. Then she calmed herself and Wylma felt the typical surge of peace on her own emotions from her Lady's Rioting. "No, Wylma. Of course I didn't kill him. I may hate skaa, but I still need them."

Wylma smiled. She believed her master. She'd been with Laila too long to be caught by her lies. "Another matter, Lady, is the issue of Jumae. He has called you out by claiming that the mists reject you. Now, I don't know what this means, but maybe he'd like to shed some light on the matter if a message was sent." 

Laila turned serious. "Wylma, what do you know about Cadoxi? He hasn't committed to anything in this search. From my messages, he wasn't willing to share any of his suspects and I haven't heard anything serious from him since the Lord Renaud accused him over a day ago!"

 

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

It's looking like today will be a busy day for me, so I may need to do most of my work tomorrow. But to start out, I am quite suspicious of CadCom.  Basically he has made 1 significant post so far.

The post starts out with a joke. And while I am willing to let most jokes slide, the subject of this joke is that it is "good" that there is one player that wont vote for him. This just isnt how this community thinks while village. Almost everyone puts the village over their own life, so a joke like this implies something a little out of place. Not a huge deal though.

The votecount CadCom posts is one from before he votes. This really isnt a big deal either. But this is a pet peeve of mine. It really bugs me when people dont include their own vote in the vote count, as it spreads misinformation about the lynch. I have made voting decisions in the past based on faulty info from posts like these. Again though, not a huge deal.

This last paragraph though, is what I find truly suspicious. First CadCom narrows down the voting options, saying we should only vote on people already with votes. Even though there was 36 hours left in the day at that point and not everyone had checked in yet.

Most of the last paragraph, seems like TMI. He is justifying the consolidation of the lynch, even though it has already been mentioned by several people... including himself in his second paragraph. So he is just repeating himself.

 After that he votes and Randuir and says, "call it a gut feeling". 

It seems to me the vote on Randuir was a random vote, but CadCom tried to cover up that fact by adding some psuedo-logic and calling it a gut vote.

This was 12 hours after the turn started, so a villager should have just cast a random vote and owned up to it. Idk why CadCom is hiding his here.

Something else of note, CadCom hasnt posted a significant game related post since Ada called his first post out.

Oh, hey Maill, you seem to have beaten me to the punch.

CadCom

Well, It seems we go through this again. Granted the last couple of games my playstyle has changed significantly, but I attribute that to changes in my real life. Last game I was under suspicion for nearly the entire game, and somehow managed to survive to the end where I was finally able to prove my alignment. I am afraid that I will not be able to pull that off again last time, as I'm not sure how I did it last time. 

Anyway, let's get to some of the concerns brought up against me. First of all, my activity levels. Yes I have been fairly less active over the last few days. I have always explained that weekends are really bad for me. I realize that activity overall goes down during the weekends, but I am lucky if I can spend more than just a couple of minutes on SE at a time.

The next major point is my vote on randuir, and me over explaining it. Looking back at the post, it does seem a little contrived, so I can't argue with the logic behind the votes due to that post.  But Hopefully, I can add additional information to the discussion.

As of now, the village has lost a thug 1, a smoker 2 and a soother 2. 

The thug really is a blow, as that was a really good role to have for the village. The good thing about the thug is if their action is successful, they are able to survive to verify who they protected if it isn't revealed in the write-up. With this many roles in the game, we can't be sure if there is another Thug 1 in the game, but it would sure be nice. If there are any other Thug 1's we need to try to keep them alive, but I think that this is unlikely. 

The smoker 2 can be helpful, but I honestly don't feel like it does that much either way. Granted a smoker 2 has the possibility to get lucky and do just the right action on just the right person to determine if that person was an elim or not, but it seems like most the time this acts as more of a protection role than a scanning role. 

The Soother 2 would have been a pretty good role to have in the game still, in my opinion  as well, as roleblocking a person can help determine an eliminator or SK if they can block the person who submitted the kill. Or at least a soother 2 could stop Zane using coinshot. I'm not sure if the elim kill is submitted in through the group doc, or if one of the group must submit it as an action. @Fifth Scholar, could you verify that?

-------------

I have more thoughts regarding the write-up, especially as regards to what appears to be coming from Joe, or other secret players, but I don't have time right now, so hopefully I can come back to that, as well as a bit of player analysis early-ish tomorrow

 

[Steeldancer]

59 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

@Steeldancer, I really don't have much to say in defense of myself. I know I'm not a Mistborn, and that's about it. I'm not an elim either. All you can do at this point is wait and hope I do more things that hint at my alignment.  I'll be available for analysis tomorrow, but I'm busy today.

That’s... not very helpful. Was sort of hoping for some relevant information or something. 

@Furamirionind could you tell me exactly who expressed these suspicions of Bard? Thanks. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Elandera]

19 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

@Furamirionind could you tell me exactly who expressed these suspicions of Bard? Thanks

I was one of those, but that's not really a secret. There is, after all, a reason I voted on him last cycle. It turned out to be faulty, but such is usually the way with D1 suspicions.

Concerning why Bard was killed, it probably has to do with how many people were suspicious of him. The Mistborn are out to kill the elims, and for a D1 kill, he was probably the best suspect they had to go on. It's probably more likely that the Mistborn who killed him was among those who didn't express outright suspicion as to not draw too much attention to themselves.

[Lumgol]

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I should probably follow Lethir, almost certain he works against Elend. Laila is lying as always, and Jumae the 2nd is being one of the smartest people I have seen since I died.

I'm guessing that this part of the writeup was posted not by Kelsier himself, but by one of the dead, almost certainly Araris.

If that's true, then I'm assuming Kelsier would then be responsible for the mist whispers in the PM's.

[Coop772]

I am here! I have yet to get a chance to read back, but know that I am here, I did get mistwhispered, and don't kill me please

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Coop772 said:

I am here! I have yet to get a chance to read back, but know that I am here, I did get mistwhispered, and don't kill me please

...
So much for the theories he couldn't talk in thread. 

[Lumgol]

@Coop772 what did your mist whisper say?

[Straw]

23 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

I'm guessing that this part of the writeup was posted not by Kelsier himself, but by one of the dead, almost certainly Araris.

If that's true, then I'm assuming Kelsier would then be responsible for the mist whispers in the PM's.

Did Joe's role show up as Kelsier?

[Lumgol]

3 minutes ago, Straw said:

Did Joe's role show up as Kelsier?

Yes. I can confirm that Joe's role is Kelsier. I have been told nothing about what it does, though.  

[Fifth Scholar]

3 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I'm not sure if the elim kill is submitted in through the group doc, or if one of the group must submit it as an action. @Fifth Scholar, could you verify that?

As stated in the existing rules clarifications, the Eliminator kill is an action. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

5 hours ago, Coop772 said:

I am here! I have yet to get a chance to read back, but know that I am here, I did get mistwhispered, and don't kill me please

Did your mistwhisper give any indication as to why Kelsier would claim you were an elim to, so far as I know, a single person? I'm struggling to see reasons why this would be. My main suspicions, though some seem very unlikely, are 1. Kelsier can only give personalised messages to certain people(likely those who are spiked, in this scenario), and everyone else received identical messages about claiming Mistborn 2. Kelsier lied to Lum to sew dissent and cause mislynches 3. Contrary to the writeup, Kelsier doesn't particularly care whether the elims are killed or not. 4. There's a Ruin role in the game who edited out the part about Coop being evil 5. Lum lied about her message, potentially receiving the one about claiming Mistborn. On that note, @Adavantos, did you receive a message asking you to post an emoji if you were a Mistborn?

12 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Zane might not necessarily be someone who expressed suspicion or voted on Bard, however. In fact, I'm rather inclined to think they're not. With so few people expressing true suspicion on Bard, murdering Bard seems more a move to make without revealing in thread your suspicion of them.

...
Now, pretty much anyone could have just not expressed their suspicion of Bard in thread. So I'm going to request, if anyone knows of anyone expressing suspicion of Bard in PMs, could you reveal so in thread? Could help open up more possibilities. For now, I'm going to vote on Rae. [Rae] you vocalized pro-mistborn arguments during Day 1, were the first to vote on Bard, and then Bard was (probably) murdered by Zane. What have ye to say for yourself? 

Going from 'Zane likely didn't vote on Bard' to voting for Rae as a Zane candidate partially on the basis her vote for Bard is an interesting leap. It seems like there were a number of people who suspected Bard though, including Kelsier, so I wouldn't say that Zane isn't among that group.

[Stick.]

14 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

 

@_Stick_ CadCom said he misread his PM and did get the message asking if he was a mistborn

 

O. Never mind then. 

12 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

That’s... not very helpful. Was sort of hoping for some relevant information or something. 

Information like what?

12 hours ago, Elandera said:

Concerning why Bard was killed, it probably has to do with how many people were suspicious of him. The Mistborn are out to kill the elims, and for a D1 kill, he was probably the best suspect they had to go on. It's probably more likely that the Mistborn who killed him was among those who didn't express outright suspicion as to not draw too much attention to themselves.

but I still find it a little odd because like I said, the top D1 lynch candidates are almost always villagers. I think they must have had more reason than the general suspicion cast on Bard in-thread...But you’re right, it is probable that they might have done it to direct suspicion on the people that voted on Bard and publicly expressed suspicion.

12 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I'm guessing that this part of the writeup was posted not by Kelsier himself, but by one of the dead, almost certainly Araris

Hm. Just that part? What lead you to guess that?

6 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Going from 'Zane likely didn't vote on Bard' to voting for Rae as a Zane candidate partially on the basis her vote for Bard is an interesting leap.

iNtErEsTiNg

Side note: my home WiFi randomly stopped working last night and I’m not sure when they’ll get it fixed (probably under 12 hours from now) so just giving y’all a heads up. I’m using data on my phone right now but it’s gonna run out soon:P 

[Steeldancer]

8 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Going from 'Zane likely didn't vote on Bard' to voting for Rae as a Zane candidate partially on the basis her vote for Bard is an interesting leap. It seems like there were a number of people who suspected Bard though, including Kelsier, so I wouldn't say that Zane isn't among that group

That leap was purposeful. I was hoping to get some information out of Rae, because of the people I named, I found her most likely to be the serial killer. But I can’t do analysis on people who didn’t express suspicion of Bard or anything, so how am I supposed to pin them down and vote on them? I’m aware of the jump I made and I’ll be keeping an eye on everyone who didn’t express suspicion of Bard, even though that’s the majority of the players. Thus why I asked fura to tell me who expressed suspicion of bard in PMs. 

The information from rae I was hoping for was some kind of action claim or role claim that would give her an alibi against being Zane. But she gave me nothing so... I’ll leave my vote where it is for now. I don’t really intend to see her lynched, just don’t see a real reason to move it right now. 

[CadCom]

On 5/19/2019 at 8:23 PM, Fifth Scholar said:

What do I have to work with here? I know every Possibility, but not the Probabilities.

Hadrian is here. He’s understandably frustrated. If he figures anything out, I’ll try to convey his thoughts to someone.

I should probably follow Lethir, almost certain he works against Elend. Laila is lying as always, and Jumae the 2nd is being one of the smartest people I have seen since I died.

It’s hard to get my messages across. No way to hear what people say to me without everyone else hearing. I have too few words for too many ears. Too many secrets.

Here are my thoughts regarding this. I sure hope it's Joe, but it doesn't necessarily have to be him, I think, like most of you, that it's more than likely someone (most likely Joe) trying to communicate from the dead doc. Anyway, Of course, Hadrian is frustrated, we lynched them D1. 

Then the suspicion on Lethir. That suspicion is now obviously false since he was also killed, and his alignment revealed.  Which makes it more than likely that the other suggestions, Laila, and Jumae are also just hunches. I still think that they're worth looking into, so I'm going to spend my next few hours analyzing Maill and Stink in more detail. As usual, it will be between work, when I have time, so bear with me before I get my analysis up. 

It's hard to get messages across, because whatever is said, everyone can read, and who knows, maybe he can only do so after meeting certain circumstances. It also seems like if we want to communicate with Joe, we have to do so directly through the thread. Meaning he can't read PMs or anything like that. 

[Rathmaskal]

OK, so I'll start today's posts with my thoughts on Joe.  I'll get another post in talking about my actual elim and maybe mistborn thoughts later as well.  This one I can do without a bunch of quotes though.  (And by later, I'm not sure when that will be since I have 5 hours of meetings coming up...fun!)

For part 1, assume Joe is Kelsier based on Lum's post.

• What could Joe's wincon be?
  • Getting Vin away from Zane is a decent thought.  (Can't remember if anyone posted about that possibility or not)
  • Maybe a standard village wincon?
  • There's been some discussion of a potential Ruin in the game.  Perhaps it has something to do with opposing Ruin?  Although I'm unsure what wincon Ruin might have other than something along the lines of a serial killer. 
    • This actually might make a little bit of sense.  Given Zane's and Vin's wincon, I think it's just as likely they weren't responsible for the extra kill last night (it looks like we're assuming it was on Bard?).  If, on the other hand, we have a SK role in the game, there's definitely going to be that extra kill.  Meh, as I type it out, it sounds less plausible.  Doesn't mean that Ruin isn't out there, just that Ruin 'tear it all down' is less likely.  Thanks for talking this out with me!
    • I'm honestly unsure what other wincon a Ruin might have in this game.  I'm really trying to hang onto this idea, though, with the thought that Ruin could be manipulating the information we receive.  Flavor-wise, that makes a bit of sense, right?  (In the original trilogy, Ruin was able to manipulate written word, right?)
• What's the deal with the whispers from the mist?
  • OK, yeah, if Joe is Kelsier, it makes a lot of sense that these messages would be from Joe.  But how would Joe have information that Coop specifically is evil?  This is at least part of the reason why I'm at least partly hanging onto the idea that there's a Ruin in the game.
    • Say these messages are from Joe and he does have good information. 
      • If Coop is evil, great, we get some great information and are able to lynch someone and then we start trusting Joe, right?
      • If Coop isn't evil, then Joe is most likely next on the chopping block, assuming we actually can lynch him.
        • Well, if we can't lynch Joe, then that makes this a no-lose situation for him...except for the existence of the assassin.  At this point, Zane seems very difficult to kill at night, so the assassin may be waiting for a chance at jumping on Zane if his identity becomes more apparent.  (Oh, Steel is Zane, got it.  Case closed.)  But Zane is killable, with the lynch if nothing else.  If Joe is outed as unlynchable, the Assassin may give it a try.
    • Say these messages are from Joe and he is speculating.
      • We basically end up with the same results, but Joe is basically hoping for a 50/50 shot at getting an elim or mistborn right from D1 analysis.  Bold move.
    • Say these messages aren't from Joe
      • Well, they're unlikely to be from Fifth since a GM pointing out that someone is evil would be...interesting.  I'd think for that to work out, there would have had to have been some mechanic in place that selected a specific player regardless of alignment and claimed them as evil.  Seems a bit much and, in my opinion, rather unlikely, especially considering Fifth already has a 'role' in this game.
      • Could they be from anyone else?  With Coop now checking in, that takes the last person who wasn't posting in thread out of the mix, which makes that rather unlikely.
    • OK, so there is a possibility that these whispers could be coming from multiple sources.  Joe and from others.  Not sure where to go on that.
  • Going through these possibilities, we can be fairly certain that the whispers are, in fact, coming from Joe.  The question at this point is whether Joe is important enough to solve to vote on Coop, or whether anyone has any better suspicions.

OK, so assume Joe isn't Kelsier

• Lum was flat out lying to us
  • Why?
    • Honestly, I'm not sure.  If Lum gets caught out in the lie, then that's going to paint a picture on Lum's back.  If Lum doesn't get caught out, then that likely means that Lum is working with Joe somehow.  In this case, Joe would have to be something other than Kelsier and Lum would have to be a role that makes sense.  Sooo, Ruin and Marsh maybe?
• Lum was misinformed some other way
  • This brings back up the possibility of Ruin existing...and at that point, we really need to think about what Ruin's wincon might be.

I know the 'Joe isn't Kelsier' part isn't nearly as fleshed out as the 'Joe is Kelsier', but that's because I'm having some difficulty considering other possibilities there.

To kind of summarize, I think it definitely most likely that Joe is Kelsier and he is working overall in our best interests.  He may have a side wincon to get rid of Zane specifically, but that wouldn't hinder the village wincon overall.  In fact, I could see a situation where if Zane dies first, Vin becomes a "standard" villager.

Whew.  That was fun.

OK, after all that, REMEMBER, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THERE IS A GOOD TRAIN ON SOMEONE TO PREVENT THE ELIM HAMMER!

Current vote count:

• Maill (1) - STINK
• Rae (1) - Steel
• Coop (2) - Lum, Rath
• CadCom (2) - Maill, Fura

Yes, I'm voting for Coop.  Partly to make sure I have a vote on the board in case I end up unable to come back, and partly because I think a vote on Coop gets us significant information on both Lum and Joe.

[xinoehp512]

I'll get on later in the cycle and vote for someone, but I don't have a whole lot of time now.