Long Game 54: Cognitive Diversions

[Lumgol]

Fifth, I appreciate your backtracking on my vote. While my vote on you was primarily self-defense as it was the only other lynch going on at the time, your tunneling on me also made me feel justified in voting for you. However, I think that I have no real reason to vote for you now.

Poke vote on Coop. @Coop772, I'd like to hear more about your reasoning. Your vote has just seemed like a bandwagon vote more than anything else.

10 hours ago, Coop772 said:

She is driving conversation, which is good, but her reasoning just isn't doing it for me compared to the counterpoints brought up by *several* other people. 

This sounds a lot like the fact that there's *several* people criticizing me, instead of 1 or 2, is more important than the arguments themselves. I'd definitely want to hear what exactly has made you suspect me, because otherwise, it just sounds like you're jumping on the bandwagon while conveniently avoiding explanation.

Vote list so far (correct me if I'm wrong): 
Lumgol (4) - Sart, Levitaph, Rathmaskal, Coop
Fifth (2) - Shqueeves, Fura
Coop (2) - Randuir, Lumgol
Rath (1) - Lopen

I'll try to write up a cremmy attempt at player analysis soon, since it was requested of me, but I'll just get this post out first.

[Rathmaskal]

Who are you to doubt one such as me?!  For I am probably just about a step below one who is just a step below a god!

---

So, I definitely do have an ellipsis-heavy writing style when I'm not in a more formal environment.

As for being hedgy...I'm just trying to be honest.  If I came across as 'Yes, I know Lumgol is an elim aha!' on D1, how could you take that seriously? 

I will pull my vote off Lumgol for now since at least one of my concerns was addressed...and I definitely know what it's like to get lynched for my early playstyle *looks meaningfully at Fifth*.

That does now put us at a tie for Fifth and Lumgol...which I also don't like.

So, what's happened since I last posted?  *ninja Lumgol...looks like no more tie for now*

• Coop vote on Lum - This one is tough.  It's a rather short post without much justification.  But I feel like Coop never really makes very long posts.
• Fura vote on Fifth - Nothing seems off here...just seems a bit light on original content.
• Lopen vote on Rath - The justification is fair this early.  I don't have much more to add than I've already posted in addition to what Fifth and rand have already said.  The only thing that seems off to me here is the justification that Lumgol reads village due to the self preservation vote.  Not sold on this.
• Fifth retracts from Lumgol - Responds to about everything in the thread.  Backtracks on initial suspicions.  Points out the same thoughts I have on Lopen's comment on the self preservation vote.  Overall, seems like a good post...and not just because of Fifth's defense of me.
• Lopen responds - Notes that Fifth's comments on me make sense...asks for more justification on Coop *vote stays on me*
• Randuir votes on Coop - Notes that the Lumgol suspicion seems valid.  Fifth's response is over the top.  Confirms that I'm usually hedgy.  Ends up with a vote on Coop.  Also points out to Levitaph that getting in on analysis early is not uncommon village practice in SE games.  Typically helpful early-game Randuir.
• Lumgol moves vote from Fifth to Coop - Says it's a poke vote, but I think it's as valid a vote at this point on D1 as you can get.  (I more think of poke votes as, "Hey, you haven't posted at all...what's going on?" but if the intention is to pull it off Coop with pretty much any response, I can get behind it)

Sooo, where does this leave me?  Each of the three leading vote-getters right now have reasons I'd consider voting on them.  At this point, though, Lumgol and Fifth are providing more overall value right now, so I'm going to move my vote to Coop.

Updated vote count:

• Lumgol (3) - Sart, Levitaph, Coop
• Fifth (2) - Shqueeves, Fura
• Coops (3) - Randuir, Lumgol, Rath
• Rath (1) - Lopen

OK, so there's a different tie for now.

Edit: Just noticed Lum's use of cremmy.  Well played.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Rathmaskal

[Mailliw73]

9 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Oh, by the way, I'm going to be at a sanderson signing tomorrow at rollover.

PSA: I’ll be taking care of rollover today, so it will happen at the same time still.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Votes have happened, it seems. I note that Shqueeves has in the past used RNG to place votes as a villager, so that's not innately suspicious. Lum doesn't seem to be acting the same way she did last game as an eliminator, but I would assume that would be true regardless of alignment as offering to help others make decisions is frowned upon. The immediate vote on Fifth is odd, as the vote was 1-1 at that point with well over a day left in the cycle, and no attempt had yet been made to get Sart to retract his vote. I'm personally of the opinion that even bad ideas are better than no ideas as far as strategy is confirmed as the former can potentially be improved. Suggesting that inactives might be evil allowed us to come to the public statement that inactives are less likely to be evil as they are poor conversion targets. There is also a difference between Sja-Anat and a standard elim, as she starts off powerful and vulnerable and gradually weakens in power and becomes the most expendable elim.

 Fifth took the time to come up with some reasoning for his countervote, which has since been retracted. There's no information on how Fifth acts as an original elim, and I disagree that mechanics analysis during the early part D1 acts as a screen for player analysis(especially as a number of people have said they wouldn't contribute anything until they reread the rules), but he sounds more like a villager with strong opinions than a villager worried about being lynched. The fact that nobody who has voted for him has done so with any specific reasoning other than keeping his vote around helps this conclusion. Fura should be coming back in a couple of hours?  so we'll see if that reasoning stands. Coop doesn't seem to have a history of bandwagoning D1 so far as I can tell, choosing instead to lynch the GM on a couple occasions, but data is limited there. It's hard to tell how much of that vote was a safe place to gain a percentage chance of becoming a Radiant spren and how much was actual suspicion of Lum, especially as the lynch was slowly starting to sway away from Lum. If it's the former, Coop will want to get those three posts in. 

[Sart]

On 4/18/2019 at 8:24 AM, Cadmium Compounder said:

Checking in. Will try to read thread and rules again shortly to offer real thought. 

This type of post is storming annoying. Seriously, who cares if you checked in? All I care about is your thoughts on the game. It's Day 1. No one knows anything, so any and all thoughts are valid. I put a vote on Lumgol, because of a two sentence long post of his. Was that good evidence? Not really, but it kicked off discussion that is good evidence. This type of post though, gives us absolutely nothing to work on. It's not even RP that adds to the quality of the game. It just makes sure you don't die from an inactivity filter. If you have time to post, you have time to vote CadCom. Reviewing is overrated. Vote now and vote often. That's the only way the village wins.

[Steeldancer]

If anyone else submits essence combine actions from here on out in the turn, I probably won’t be around to figure out what it makes. Mailliw will simply tell you your essences have been combined, and I’ll let you know what it made once I get back from FanX. Thank you for being understanding. 

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

This type of post is storming annoying. Seriously, who cares if you checked in? All I care about is your thoughts on the game. It's Day 1. No one knows anything, so any and all thoughts are valid. I put a vote on Lumgol, because of a two sentence long post of his. Was that good evidence? Not really, but it kicked off discussion that is good evidence. This type of post though, gives us absolutely nothing to work on. It's not even RP that adds to the quality of the game. It just makes sure you don't die from an inactivity filter. If you have time to post, you have time to vote CadCom. Reviewing is overrated. Vote now and vote often. That's the only way the village wins.

This seems a harsh reaction to a post. CadCom said he'd be busy when he signed up, and he wasn't the only one to have such a post. My own was basically what CadCom said, but with some RP attached. Dr Drapper's first post was something to the order of he'd post more when he found something funny (and his second was "hmmmm").

In a game where activity matters for function, a simple checking in post is fine to me, especially that early on in the turn. It seems more village indicative that they want to at least get some progress toward bonding. There's also the matter of meta to consider here, where it's fairly common for poke votes to be placed on people who haven't submitted any post.

Also, the bolded section seems very pushy and in many ways against what would be useful. Reviewing posts is always useful, and helps avoid unnecessary bandwagoning.

Sart

[DeTess]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

This seems a harsh reaction to a post. CadCom said he'd be busy when he signed up, and he wasn't the only one to have such a post. My own was basically what CadCom said, but with some RP attached. Dr Drapper's first post was something to the order of he'd post more when he found something funny (and his second was "hmmmm").

In a game where activity matters for function, a simple checking in post is fine to me, especially that early on in the turn. It seems more village indicative that they want to at least get some progress toward bonding. There's also the matter of meta to consider here, where it's fairly common for poke votes to be placed on people who haven't submitted any post.

Also, the bolded section seems very pushy and in many ways against what would be useful. Reviewing posts is always useful, and helps avoid unnecessary bandwagoning.

I do basically agree with most of what you've said, but I'm kinda missing the link to this making Sart suspicious. Could you explain that a bit more?

[Elandera]

44 minutes ago, Randuir said:

I do basically agree with most of what you've said, but I'm kinda missing the link to this making Sart suspicious. Could you explain that a bit more?

It was the bolded sentence. It might have been facetious, but it gave me a bad vibe. I tend to not like comments that tell me to not analyse and just go along with a bandwagon. Especially when that bandwagon seems based on weird reasoning.

[Mailliw73]

Just a reminder that there is just over 4 hours left in the cycle! Don't forget to get orders and votes in before then!

[CadCom]

4 hours ago, Sart said:

This type of post is storming annoying. Seriously, who cares if you checked in? All I care about is your thoughts on the game. It's Day 1. No one knows anything, so any and all thoughts are valid. I put a vote on Lumgol, because of a two sentence long post of his. Was that good evidence? Not really, but it kicked off discussion that is good evidence. This type of post though, gives us absolutely nothing to work on. It's not even RP that adds to the quality of the game. It just makes sure you don't die from an inactivity filter. If you have time to post, you have time to vote CadCom. Reviewing is overrated. Vote now and vote often. That's the only way the village wins.

I second the sentiments offered by Elandera in regards to the part of your quote that I bolded. Not only does it sound like you are trying to get me to skip through the thread, but it also sounds like you would like me to sow chaos. For that reason, I think I will vote on you, Sart.

With regards to the parts of your post that I italicized. While I disagree with the sentiment that If I have time to post, I have time to vote. I do agree that My post was not very helpful. I will make an attempt to put at least some thought into my posts from this point on. I disagree with the time to post time to vote sentiment, though because sometimes all I have time for at a moment is a half analysis of only some players, and I might still want to contribute my thoughts at the time, but I might want to consider other players before placing my vote. 

Knowing your thoughts about when and how votes should be places may help me better read you as a player in the future, hopefully. but for now, this post just seems off. Please note, my vote is not a simple revenge vote. (you vote on me, I vote on you) Nor is it a vote because you offended, or upset me. I really do understand your frustration with that type of post. It provides absolutely nothing to analyze or work off. I believe your vote on me was neither a suspicion, gut, or poke vote, but a principle vote. If that is the case, I read you loud and clear. 

16 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Oh, by the way, I'm going to be at a sanderson signing tomorrow at rollover.

So, what? Brandon Sanderson himself is more important than our little SE game? Say Hi from CadCom!

Edit: I also wanted to throw in my thoughts about a couple of other things that I forgot. 

First, and I don't know how well this will go over, but I think I expressed it in the last conversion game I played as well. While I will still vote during the first cycle, as I believe it is necessary, otherwise the elims will just be able to silently kill and convert without trying to track them down, on a matter of principle, it pains me in doing so, because during the first few cycles, our chances of catching an eliminator are very small, and any interactions we have in the first few cycles may be pretty much useless for quite a few cycles after.

Second. In regards to the Lum/Fifth contest, I don't completely understand it, as I only skimmed the thread, but I find it kindof pointless. All it seems like to me are people teaming up with people that they've barely associated with this game, because of a gut read, or even worse, completely randomly. If there is more than one elim, it's quite likely that at least one of the votes in this group of people voting is an elim, but unfortunately, that doesn't offer much because there have been so many votes on them.

Edited April 19, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[TheMightyLopen]

I don't have much time right now, so I'll keep it short. I do feel less suspicious of Rath after his reply and others input, but since he's not in danger of being lynched and I want to vote somewhere but don't have time to make an informed vote, I'll keep my vote where it is. 

This will likely be my last post of the Day, unless someone needs to ask me something I can answer in like 2 minutes.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Coop (4) - Randuir, Lumgol, Rath, Devotary
Lumgol (2) - Levitaph, Coop
Fifth (2) - Shqueeves, Fura
Sart (2) -  Elandera, CadCom
Rath (1) - Lopen
CadCom (1) - Sart

We've got a pretty wide spread of votes here. I'm not really seeing the lynch on Sart, even though it is definitely not true that having time to post gives one time to make an informed vote. I think that I'll put a 4th vote on Coop unless he wants to make progress towards gaining a Radiant with a second and third post. 

[old man moomba]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

It was the bolded sentence. It might have been facetious, but it gave me a bad vibe. I tend to not like comments that tell me to not analyse and just go along with a bandwagon. Especially when that bandwagon seems based on weird reasoning.

I like your logic. 

So I'll vote to lynch Sart

(Hopefully that's red?)

[Mailliw73]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Dapper said:

I like your logic. 

So I'll vote to lynch Sart

(Hopefully that's red?)

That is gray. [*color=red] and [*/color] (minus the *) should do it for you. 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Mailliw73

[Lumgol]

Alright, some thoughts on a few players as promised, in no particular order.

Sart: Starts off by responding to both of my posts, and also votes on me. This seems a lot more like an early attempt to start discussion than being convicted in voting for me. In his second post, he switches his vote to CadCom because he wants him to post more constructive, discussion-generating things since he can post in the first place. So, he seems to be primarily trying to generate discussion and action and that includes voting on people. Seems pretty NAI to me. However, as Elandera has pointed out, he seemed to only have been targeting CadCom, and multiple people this game have done checking in posts and similar things and Sart hasn't addressed them at all. Overall, I agree that contributing content is important especially at the start, but I disagree with voting on someone just because they checked in. I don't think that this behavior warrants a vote on Sart, though - this move is kind of strange but I don't think it's an elim thing. Getting into mechanics here (sorry), but as for his point about killing anyone who turns out to have multiple lives, I'd say that makes sense. The presence of multiple lives means that someone has a 50% chance of being elim, which I'd say is worth it.

Rath: First checks in and suggests sharing if the Stormfather fails to bond someone. Then, he responds to my post about whether we should prioritize killing Sja-anat or her converts, saying the general conclusion most people have come to. He follows by voting on me, and providing an explanation of what he finds suspicious. He emphasizes not being overly sure about me being suspicious and mostly lynching me for the sake of action. Although this approach can be used by elims to mask the fact that they don't actually suspect anyone and know that everyone's village, I find no problem with this unsureness as this is D1. Anyways, Rath eventually retracts his vote on me, without much explanation of why I was more cleared, which I'd honestly like to hear but I don't find the lack of explanation suspicious as you also said that you "knew what it was like to be lynched for your early playstyle" (might not be the exact wording). So, overall, a pretty neutral/village read so far. Rath sounds pretty careful about jumping to conclusions in general, but is also pushing himself to act more without overthinking (as shown by his statement that he voted on me partially to avoid procrastinating votes), so I don't think I can criticize him either way.

Whew, that was only 2 players and took WAY longer than expected. More may or may not be coming later.

TL;DR

While I don't agree with Sart's vote on CadCom, his general strategy and reasoning behind his posts appeals to me and I don't think his behavior is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Although some people have a problem with Rath's unsure tone and seeming hedginess, I see him actively trying to take more action and I find his tone more logical than suspiciously apologetic.

[old man moomba]

Storm it!

Ok I'll do it here instead.

I vote to lynch Sart

Thank you kindly, friend.

Edited April 20, 2019 by Dr. Dapper

[Fifth Scholar]

Hmm. I’m a little surprised how fast that lynch swung away from Lumgol—while it was arguably a good thing, the speed with which the Coop counterwagon arose is fairly alarming. The vote is certainly suspicious, but it seems almost as minor as what I accused Lum for. 

I’ve done a reread of the whole thread. Nothing new particularly jumps out at me, except Fura’s slightly odd vote on me, and a reminder that my suspicion of Lum isn’t entirely abated. However, I can agree for now to not vote on any of these players. Instead, Sart. Not only does his recent vote on CadCom cast him in a poor light, but a lack of focus on inactives, which he seems to advocate, can be potentially deadly to the village; allowing Sja’anat to lurk in the shadows of the game does little good. I won’t pretend this is a terribly justified vote; the most justification I could offer would probably be a re-addition of my vote to Lum, but I’ve found her recent posts village enough that I don’t particularly want to do that. I’d be happy with seeing either of Sart or Coop flip for information, but as a more personal decision I’d rather see Sart’s flip, most notably to see if Lumgol was perhaps being set up from the beginning of the cycle. During the Night cycle, and after lynch results, I’ll add my thoughts on each of the current players. 

[Coop772]

I'm probably too late but Sart because I don't have time to figure out why people suddenly hate me so this is my only chance of survival sorry

[Sart]

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

This seems a harsh reaction to a post. CadCom said he'd be busy when he signed up, and he wasn't the only one to have such a post. My own was basically what CadCom said, but with some RP attached. Dr Drapper's first post was something to the order of he'd post more when he found something funny (and his second was "hmmmm").

In a game where activity matters for function, a simple checking in post is fine to me, especially that early on in the turn. It seems more village indicative that they want to at least get some progress toward bonding. There's also the matter of meta to consider here, where it's fairly common for poke votes to be placed on people who haven't submitted any post.

Also, the bolded section seems very pushy and in many ways against what would be useful. Reviewing posts is always useful, and helps avoid unnecessary bandwagoning.

Sart

You're right in that I was too pushy. I excluded you because I value RP, and excluded Drapper because he was new. I also didn't realize that CadCom had stated he was busy, otherwise I wouldn't have voted on him. However, I want to clarify one point. When I said vote often, I didn't mean that in terms of bandwagons. Rather, I want people to vote with their gut. Especially Day 1, it's easy to get swept up in the crowd. I want everyone forming their own opinions, and making their thoughts heard. We're all in the same boat, so lets have everyone weigh in. Since Cadmium Compounder has weighed in, I'm taking my vote off of him. I'll put my new vote on Devotary of Spontaneity . They're following the thread carefully, but didn't post a vote until late. In addition, they suggested that we shouldn't reveal roles day one. I disagree, because while it could prove problematic with conversions, it prevents us from making a preventable mistake. In that vein, I will reveal that I am an Inkspren. I will remove Devotary's vote to prove it.

[Mailliw73]

5 minutes ago, Coop772 said:

I'm probably too late but Sart because I don't have time to figure out why people suddenly hate me so this is my only chance of survival sorry

This won't count unless you first green out Lum's name. 

[Coop772]

Lum

Thanks for catching that Maill

[Mailliw73]

1 minute ago, Coop772 said:

Lum

Thanks for catching that Maill

Just doing my duty.

[Fifth Scholar]

@Coop772 I don’t believe you have reason to panic, at least not yet. There’s two or so hours left in the cycle, and plenty of people are on to explain change their votes. Would you mind further elaborating on what you found suspicious enough about Lumgol to vote on her? I think that’s where most of the suspicion is coming from. 

Edited April 20, 2019 by Fifth Scholar
I cannot think today

[Steeldancer]

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Just doing my duty.

Hee hee he said duty.